ELM SRLR PROCEEDINGS

2013 3

622.276.5:550.064.45
13


..1, ..2, ..1, ..2
(1 , 2 )
13 ""
.
. .


.
: , ,
, .
: eldibaeva _S@kaznipi.kz
DOI: 10.5510/OGP20130300166

13
1965 . 13
, .
,
3-6 .


1.0-2.8
35-45%.
3.7 .
1975 468 149,
37 /.
1.

( 1975 .),
, , , 1976
1978 . 44 58%,
30%
1975 (.1).
1970 . 13 1970
1983 .
1983-84 .

,
( ) .
90

20

80

60
15

50
40

10

30

, %

70

, .

, .,

25

20

10
0
2011

2009

2007

2005

2003

2001

1999

1997

1995

1993

1991

1989

1987

1985

1983

1981

1979

1977

1975

1973

1971

1969

1967

1965

.1.

41

2013 3

ELM SRLR PROCEEDINGS

.

4.0
3.5

3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
2010

2005

2000

1995

1990

1985

1980

1975

1970

.2.
,
,
, .
- (), , , ,
- . .
1999
13 [1]
( 2003 ., 2004 . - 88 52 ).
75.2%,

.
,
4.0 / 2000 7.2 /
2004 . 2002
,

[3]
.
,
,
(
80%) , ,
:
T1 = [01/1965; 01/1972], T2 = [01/1972; 10/1975],
T3 = [10/1975; 01/1995], T4 = [01/1995; 12/1999] (.4).
t = 0 4
01/1965.

(x )
F4 ( x ) =
1 exp
, x

= 44.76, = 2.67, = 134.925

x ( t ) = x ( t + t0 ) , t0 = 29 ( 01/1995) x ( t )
:


(1)
x ( t ) = A / t
4.0

180

3.5
3.0

140

2.5

120
100

2.0

80

1.5

60

1.0

40

0.5

20

.3. c

.4.
1965-1999 .

2010

2005

2000

1995

1990

2005

1985

1995

1980

1985

1975

1975

1965

0.0

0
1965

X = q(t)
(q(t)- ) IV :

200
160

42

1965-1999 ..

1970

1965

0.0

(.2).
2,
1965 1999 .. 1999 . .

, , 1998 24.2,
2011 10 /., ..
2.5 (.3). ,
[2].

ELM SRLR PROCEEDINGS

tT 4 = [01/1995; 12/1995] (
[29,34]) Y = ln x Y = O + 1
- a0 1
=
4.02,
=
1 0.05

=
1 =
0.05

=
A e=
55.496
,
(1), :
0

F4 (t ) =
1 exp {bt a } , b = 48.122,

= 0.036 .

2013 3

120
100
80
60
40

[1965-1999]
[2000-2011]

20

1
 abt a 1 exp {=
F=
bt a } 1.754 / t 0.964 exp {48.122t 0,036 }
4 (t )



Q
HH (t ) = Q (t ) / Q :


dQHH (t )

(2)





t

t
,
t
= (t )(1 Q (t )),
[ ]
HH

0
0

200

400

600

800

1000

.5.
-a 1 1.754 / t 0.964
=

(t ) abt
=
: t1 = 0, t2 = 34 29 = 5.
(1965-1999 .) (2000-2011 .)
( ) xk = Q(k ), k = (k ), AK= (1 K ), U K = K Q

(2) [4-9].
:
xk +1 = AK xk + U K + wk

(3)

=
y
C
x
+
v
K
K K
K
wk k 2 : 1965 - 1999 .. 2000 .
.
.
(3) , - .
( 1)

(3) .
, Q(t) (1965 1999) (2000 - 2011).

5 1965 - 1999 . 2000 - 2011 . ,
(1965-1999) 72.5 .,
.. 63% , 1965 - 1999 . 63%, 2000
2000 - 2011 . 94% .

(2000-2011) 106.8 ., , ,
94% . , ,

- .
dt

lg x 1.823
F0 ( x ) =

, x > 0
0.451

II

III

IV

1 exp {0.0102 ( x 146.09 )} , x 146.09

F0 ( x ) =
0
, x < 146.09

1 ( 44.765 ( x )
F0 ( x ) =
0

0.777

, x 44.765

, x < 44.765

( x 44.76 )2.67
1 exp
, x 44.76
F0 ( x ) =
134.928

0
, x < 44.76

0.9
0.9995
0.8

0.8

43

2013 3

ELMELM
SRLR
SRLR
PROCEEDINGS
PROCEEDINGS

1. .., .., .. . //
2122111, 1998.
[A.Kh.Shakhverdiev, G.M.Panakhov, B.A.Suleimanov et al. ethod of hydraulic fracturing of formation //
RU Patent 2122111, 1998]
2. .., .., ... // . -2013. - 5. -C.10-18.
[B.A.Suleimanov, F.S.Ismailov, O.A.Dyshin. Statistical modeling of operational lifetime of an oil field
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3. .. . M: , 1982.
[J.Pollard. Methods of computational statistics. M.: Finances and statistics, 1982]
4. .., .., ... -5 ()
// . -2000. -5. -C.16-21.
[B.A.Suleimanov, M.S.Askerov, G.A.Valiyev. Potential of re-development of horizon PK-5 (north) of
Surakhany field //Azrbaijan oil industry. -2000. -5. -P.16-21]
5. .., .., ...
// . -2000. - 12. -.81-83.
[T.Sh.Salavatov, B.A.Suleimanov, A.S.Nuryaev. Selective isolation of hard formation waters influx in
producing wells //Oil industry. -2000. -No12. -P.81-83]
6. ... //
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[B.A.Suleimanov. Slip effect during filtration of gassed liquid //Colloid journal. -1997. -.59. -6. -C.807-812]
7. .., .., .. . //
2123586, 1998.
[A.Kh.Shakhverdiev, G.M.Panakhov, B.A.Suleimanov et al. ethod for development of oil deposit //RU
Patent 2123586, 1998]
8. .., .., .. . //
2125154, 1999.
[A.Kh.Shakhverdiev, G.M.Panakhov, B.A.Suleimanov et al. ethod for development of oil deposit //RU
Patent 2125154, 1999]
9. .., ... //
. -1995. -. 57. - 6. -. 862-867.
[B.A.Suleimanov, Kh.F.Azizov. Specific Features of the FIow of a Gassed Liquid in a Porous Body //Colloid
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The analysis of a state development 13-th horizon,

"Uzen" field, on the basis of statistical modelling of life cycle
M.I.Kurbanbayev1, O.A.Dyshin2, S.S.Keldibayeva1, T.E.Mamedbeyli2
(1JSC "KazNIPIMunayGas", 2"OilGasScientificResearchProject" Institute)
Abstract
The analysis of a state development of the 13-th horizon, "Uzen" field, on the basis of statistical modelling of
life cycle is presented in the article. The developmental stages of the field and the duration of each is defined.
Using a non-linear logistic model for the cumulative oil production has given estimates of the recoverable reserves.
Based on the values of cumulative oil production in the final stage, oil production was predicted and the design
parameters for the current development system were evaluated using an adaptive Kalman filter in discrete time.

Hyat siklinin statistik modelldirilmsi sasnda

"Uzen" yatann 13 horizontunun ilnm vziyytinin thlili
M..Kurbanbayev1, O.A.Din2, S.S.Keldibayeva1, T.E.Mmmdbyli2
(1"QazNPMunayQaz" SC, 2"Neftqazelmitdqiqatlayih" nstitutu)
Xlas
Mqald, "Uzen" yatann 13 horizontunun hyat siklinin statistik modelldirilmsi sasnda ilnm
vziyytinin thlili tqdim olunur. Yatan ilnm mrhllri ayrlb v hr mrhlnin uzunluu tyin edilib.
Toplanm neft hasilat n qeyri-xtti logistik model sasnda ilkin xarlabiln ehtiyatlarn qiymtlndirilmsi
verilir. Diskret vaxtda Kalmann adaptiv filtrinin istifadsi il tamamlanma mrhlsind toplanm neft
hasilatnn gstricilri sasnda neft hasilatnn proqnozlar verilir v ilnmnin mvcud sistemind layih
gstricilrinin yerin yetirilmsi imkanlar qiymtlndirilir.
44