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, Ph.D.

11 2014 .

,
(+7 495) 795-3677


,
(+7 495) 780-4724


Key indicators (y/y)
- , $
2012
% 2011

400
350
GDP

300
Ind.

4.3%
4.7%
8.3%
7.2%
6.1%
32.2
5.7%
0.7%

output

Investments
250
Retail
200

trade
CPI
150
$/RUB, YE
100
Current acc-t*
50
Fiscal bal-ce*

70%
2013E
2014E
2.8%
2.6%
65% 2.5%
2.8%
3.5%
3.5%
4.5%
60% 4.0%
6.8%
6.8%
32.0
33.5
55%
3.0%
1.5%
1.0%
1.0%

3.4%
2.6%
6.6%
5.9%
6.6%
30.4
4.1%
0.0%

50%

2013

2012

2011

2010

2009

2008

2007

2005

2006

Source: Rosstat, CBR, Alfa Research


* as a percentage of GDP
:
,and
-
Producer
consumer trends

10%
8%

7.5%

, % /
, % /

8%

7.0%

6%
6%

6.5%

4%

6.0%

2%

5.5%

4%
2%

0%

5.0%
A-12

A-12

D-12

Source: Rosstat, Alfa Research

2013

4.5%
Industrial output, y /y

2010

2009

2008

2007

2006

2005

D-10 A-11 A-11 D-11


-4% -2%
Unemploy ment (RHS)
Retail sales, y /y
-6%

2012

-2%

2011

0%

Bank assets,
% of
GDP: top 100 banks vs.
:
,
-
remaining banks

90%

12%

% GDP

TOP ,
100 Other
.
%

%
80%

10%
8%

14%
11%

60%
50%

4%
2%

30%
11%
20%
10%

13%

13% 13% 50%

12%

40%

11%

40%

6%

60%

% .

70%

10%
8%

11%

9% 35% 41%
8%
24%

49%

62% 60% 62% 67%


30%
57%
10% 10% 11%

8%

20%

0%

10%
2000 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

0%

0%

Source:
Interfax,
CBR,
Alfa
Research
2006 2007
2008
2009
2010
2011 2012 2013
:
,
-
Illicit capital
outflows
(CBR estimates)


45
$10/.
Illicit capital outf low, $ bn

40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5

: -
research@alfabank.ru
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2012

2011

2010

2009

2008

2007

2006

2005

2004

2003

2002

2001

$30/.
. $115/.
$85/.

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, 2008-2009 ., 0,8%
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400

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6%
4%

300

65%

200

60%

100

55%

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2%

0%
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: , -

2013

2012

2011

2010

2009

2008

2007

2006

2013

2012

2011

2010

2009

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20/. $140/. 30 ./$ 23 ./$
. 2008 . . 2009 . $140/. $40/.
23 ./$ 36 ./$
. 2009 . 2011 .
$40/. $120/. 36 ./$ 27 ./$
2012 . . 2021
$125/. $95/.
29 ./$ 33 ./$
. 2012 . 2013 . $95/. $120/. 33 ./$ 30 ./$
. 2014 . 2014*
$115/. $90/.
34 ./$ 40 ./$

$10/.

$10/.

0,6 ./$
1,3 ./$
1,1 ./$
1,3 ./$
1,2 ./$
2,0 ./$

$540
$200
$150
$10
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20
19
3
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50
49
48
47
46
45
44
43
42
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: -

75
105
95
85
75
65

80

110
100
90
80
70

85

115
105
95
85
75

90

120
110
100
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125
115
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130
120
110
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100
90
80
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50
49
48
47
46
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70
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- ()

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, , 107078, - , 12

(7 495) 795-3712


, ,
, ,
,

(7 495) 795-3676
, Ph.D, ,
, ..., CFA


,

,

,

Alfa Capital Markets ()


/

Alforma Capital Markets (-)


/

(7 495) 223-5500, (7 495) 223-5522




(7 495) 795-3680
,
14th Floor, 1 Angel Court, London EC2R 7HJ
(44 20) 7588-8500
(44 20) 7382-4170
(+44 20) 7382 4171
(+44 20) 7382-4174
(+44 20) 7382-4179
1270 Avenue of the Americas, New York, NY 10020
(+1 212) 421-7500/(+1 212) 421-8633
(+1 212) 421-8564

-, 2012 . . 1326 29 01 1998 .


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Markets (USA) Inc. ( Alfa Capital), -, ,
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.