TRNG I HC KINH T - LUT

KHOA KINH T I NGOI

TI THM NH D N

THNH LP I L BN V XE KHCH TRC

TUYN TI THNH PH H CH MINH

GVHD: ThS. Trn Thin Trc Phng

SVTH: DUY LUN - K10402.0156
PHAN NHT MINH K10402.0162
NGUYN TH NGA K10402.0282
NGUYN TH M THANH - K10402.0182

TP.HCM THNG 6/2014

NH GI MC NG GP THC HIN TI
1

Duy Lun

25%

Nguyn Th Nga

25%

Phan Nht Minh

25%

Nguyn Th M Thanh

25%

ii

MC LC
DANH MC T VIT TT, THUT NG...................................................................1
LI M U......................................................................................................... 2
CHNG 1: TNG QUAN V D N........................................................................3
KINH DOANH I L BN V XE KHCH TRC TUYN..........................................3
1.1. Tng quan v lnh vc kinh doanh i l bn v xe khch trc tuyn................................3
1.1.1. Thc trng lao ng ngoi tnh ang sinh sng v lm vic ti Tp. HCM...................3
1.1.2. Thc trng mua v xe khch ti Tp. HCM.........................................................3
1.1.3. Chnh sch qun l ca nh nc v kinh doanh theo hnh thc i l......................4
1.1.4. Thc trng kinh doanh i l xe khch trc tuyn ti Vit Nam...............................5
1.1.5. Thc trng s dng internet v pht trin thng mi in t ti Vit Nam................5
1.2. C s l lun..................................................................................................... 6
1.2.1. Mc tiu ca d n..................................................................................... 6
1.2.2. Phn tch nhu cu khch hng........................................................................6
1.2.3. Phng n thay th..................................................................................... 9
1.3. M t d n.................................................................................................... 9
1.3.1. Thng tin c bn d n................................................................................ 9
1.3.2. Thng tin c bn v i l..........................................................................10
1.3.3. Thng tin th trng khch hng mc tiu.......................................................10
1.3.4. Thng tin nhn s thc hin d n................................................................12
1.3.5. Thng tin website v vn phng...................................................................12
1.3.6. Cc giai on thc hin..............................................................................14
CHNG 2. PHN TCH TI CHNH.......................................................................16

iii

D N KINH DOANH I L BN V XE KHCH TRC TUYN..............................16

2.1. c lng ngn lu....................................................................................... 16
2.1.1. Bng thng s......................................................................................... 16
2.1.2. Bng d tnh chi ph u t d n.................................................................17
2.1.3. Bng lch gii ngn vn............................................................................. 18
2.1.4. Bng khu hao d n.................................................................................18
2.1.5. Bng bo co thu nhp............................................................................... 19
2.1.6. Bng ngn lu......................................................................................... 20
2.2. Hnh thnh ngn lu t do................................................................................21
2.2.1. Phn tch theo quan im tng u t............................................................21
2.2.2. Phn tch theo quan im ch u t..............................................................22
2.3. T l an ton tr n (DSCR).............................................................................. 22
2.4. Xc nh chi ph vn....................................................................................... 23
2.5. Nhn xt v nh gi tnh kh thi v mt ti chnh ca d n.....................................23
2.5.1. Kt qu m hnh ti chnh c s...................................................................23
2.5.2. T l an ton tr n (DSCR).........................................................................23
2.5.2. Bin dng ngn lu:..................................................................................24
CHNG 3: PHN TCH NHY V RI RO........................................................25
3.1. Xc nh cc bin s quan trng v ri ro v nhng dao ng kh d ca cc bin s........25
3.2.Phn tch nhy........................................................................................... 26
3.2.1. Phn tch nhy mt chiu........................................................................26
3.2.2. Phn tch nhy hai chiu.........................................................................29
3.3. Phn tch kch bn.......................................................................................... 33
3.4. Phn tch Monte-Carlo.................................................................................... 34
CHNG 4: KT LUN........................................................................................ 35

iv

TI LIU THAM KHO......................................................................................... 37

1.

Ti liu giy................................................................................................ 37

2.

Ti liu trc tuyn......................................................................................... 37

DANH MC T VIT TT, THUT NG

1. Tp.HCM - Thnh ph H Ch Minh

2. Internet Mng my tnh
3. NPV (Net Present Value) Gi tr hin ti rng
4. WACC (Weighted Average Cost of Capital) Chi ph vn bnh qun trng s
5. IRR (Internal Rate of Return) Sut sinh li ni ti
6. TSC Ti sn c nh
7. TNDN Thu nhp doanh nghip
8. GTGT Gi tr gia tng
9. DSCR (Debt Service Coverage Ratio) T l an ton tr n
10. PTN Phn tch nhy

LI M U

Trong nhiu nm tr li y, gn n dp l tt th vn mua c v xe khch l

mt ni trn tr ca nhiu ngi xa qu ang sinh sng v lm vic ti Tp. HCM.
V xe khch ch yu c mua v bn trc tip ti cc bn xe hoc t v qua in
thoi.
Vi tnh cp thit ca k hoch v mong mun to thi quen cho khch hng t v
trn mng, gim chi ph v thi gian mua v ti bn xe, nhm chng ti ng quan
im vi ch u t v quyt nh nhn gi thu thc hin d n thnh lp mt i
l bn v xe khch trc tuyn ti Tp. HCM do ng Ngc Lm cp vn. Mc d,
khng phi l ngi i tin phong trong lnh vc ny, nhng vi nhng tnh nng v
c im khc bit, d n s to li th cnh tranh gip i l pht trin.
K hoch kinh doanh c thc hin khi ngun t tng ca ch u t sau
nhiu ln bc xc vi thc trng t mua v xe khch mi dp l tt ti Tp. HCM.
K hoch mang tnh thc tin v tnh kh thi cao khi nhm vo nhu cu tt yu ca
hn 4.000.000 ngi ngoi tnh ang sinh sng v lm vic ti Tp. HCM v 30%
trong s s dng internet hng ngy.

CHNG 1: TNG QUAN V D N

KINH DOANH I L BN V XE KHCH TRC TUYN
1.1. Tng quan v lnh vc kinh doanh i l bn v xe khch trc tuyn
1.1.1. Thc trng lao ng ngoi tnh ang sinh sng v lm vic ti Tp. HCM
Dn s Tp. HCM vo u 2013 c 7.750.900, mt dn s bnh qun 3.698
ngi/km2 (mt dn s ti cc qun ni thnh 12.996 ngi/km2, mt dn s
cc huyn ngoi thnh 823 ngi/km 2). Do tnh trng ngi dn nhp c a s
khng c h khu thng tr nn rt kh a ra con s chnh xc. Theo thng k
cha chnh thc th s lng ngi nhp c ti a bn Tp. HCM c tnh hn 2
triu ngi.
Tc tng dn s ca Tp. HCM bnh qun hng nm khong 3% th mc tng c
hc (dn nhp c) chim 2%. Nhng ngi nhp c n Tp. HCM cng nhiu
tui nhng phn ln vn l nhng lao ng tr. c bit l cc khu ch xut, khu
cng nghip, lng lao ng nhp c c tnh chim hn 2/3 tng s lao ng.
1.1.2. Thc trng mua v xe khch ti Tp. HCM
Hin nay vic mua v xe khch ti Tp.HCM ch yu c thc hin theo phng
thc truyn thng tc n trc tip bn xe trao tin v mua v. S lng giao dch
cn li ch yu l t v bng in thoi chim s lng khng nhiu. V nhn
chung, vo cc ngy bnh thng v xe khng thc s l vn ng ngi, mt s
tuyn xe vn chy kh u theo lch mc d xe khng y khch.
Tuy nhin, vo cc dp c bit (Tt, 30/4-1/5,) nhu cu xe khch tng t bin,
vic nhiu ngi xp hng ti bn xe mua v kh ph bin. Ngay c khi gi v b i
ln rt cao (do c nh xe ln hot ng ca c li) th nhu cu v xe khch v qu

ca ngi dn vn khng h suy gim. Bn cnh , do khch mua trc tip cha
thu xp kp nn a s cc dch v t v qua in thoi cng b y xung mc
u tin thp hn. Ni cch khc, nu khng mua v sm, ngoi cch ra bn xe hoc
i l hng xe xp hng th gn nh khng cn cch no khc v qu n Tt cng
gia nh.
1.1.3. Chnh sch qun l ca nh nc v kinh doanh theo hnh thc i l
Cn c lut thng mi 2005:
iu 166. i l thng mi
i l thng mi l hot ng thng mi, theo bn giao i l v bn i l
tho thun vic bn i l nhn danh chnh mnh mua, bn hng ho cho bn giao
i l hoc cung ng dch v ca bn giao i l cho khch hng hng th lao.
iu 177. Thi hn i l
1. Tr trng hp c tho thun khc, thi hn i l ch chm dt sau mt thi gian
hp l nhng khng sm hn su mi ngy, k t ngy mt trong hai bn thng
bo bng vn bn cho bn kia v vic chm dt hp ng i l.
2. Tr trng hp c tha thun khc, nu bn giao i l thng bo chm dt hp
ng theo quy nh ti khon 1 iu ny th bn i l c quyn yu cu bn giao
i l bi thng mt khon tin cho thi gian m mnh lm i l cho bn giao
i l .
Gi tr ca khon bi thng l mt thng th lao i l trung bnh trong thi gian
nhn i l cho mi nm m bn i l lm i l cho bn giao i l. Trong trng
hp thi gian i l di mt nm th khon bi thng c tnh l mt thng th
lao i l trung bnh trong thi gian nhn i l.
3. Trng hp hp ng i l c chm dt trn c s yu cu ca bn i l th
bn i l khng c quyn yu cu bn giao i l bi thng cho thi gian m mnh
lm i l cho bn giao i l.

1.1.4. Thc trng kinh doanh i l xe khch trc tuyn ti Vit Nam
Vi nm tr li y chng kin s ra i ca nhiu website cung cp dch v t v
xe trc tuyn. Trong s c c dch v chnh thc ca hng xe (nh Mai Linh,
Hong Long, Phng Trang,) cng nh cc dch v trung gian tng hp nhiu nh
xe. Tuy nhin mc ph bin cha tht s cao, cha c mc nh hng ln
thay i thi quen mua v xe truyn thng vn rt quen thuc vi ngi dn.
Bn cnh , mt nguyn nhn khng km phn quan trng chnh l c ngi dng
v nh cung cp u cha to c lng tin cho i phng. Hin tng b ko
vn hay xy ra i vi trng hp t v trc thanh ton sau.
1.1.5. Thc trng s dng internet v pht trin thng mi in t ti Vit
Nam
Lc u tuy cn kh mi l nhng gn y hnh thc thng mi in t ang dn
tr nn kh ph bin. Chi ph u t ban u khng cao, vi tng to ra s
khc bit, vic t c doanh thu khng l khng h kh. Nhiu website thng
mi in t t n hng chc hng trm nghn lt truy cp mi ngy.
c bit khi mc s dng Internet ca Vit Nam kh cao (33,9 % tng ng
31,034,900 ngi xp th 18 th gii vo nm 2012). T l ny cc thnh ph ln
nh Tp.HCM cn cao hn rt nhiu v ha hn s cn tng cao. iu chng t
vic chuyn i t hnh thc mua v truyn thng sang mua v trc tuyn l xu
hng hon ton c th xy ra.

1.2. C s l lun
1.2.1. Mc tiu ca d n
-

Thnh lp website bn v xe khch Tp. HCM v m vn phng i din nm

trn ng inh B Lnh, i din Cng A Bn xe Min ng, Tp. HCM.

Chi ph thnh lp i l khng vt qu 200.000.000 VND v c 3-4 nhn

vin khi chnh thc bt u hot ng.

Hot ng trong 8 nm, thu hi vn u t ban u sau 4 nm v thanh l ti

sn trong vng 1 nm.

t li nhun tng cng sau 8 nm l 500 000 000 VND.

1.2.2. Phn tch nhu cu khch hng

Thnh ph H Ch Minh l mt thnh ph nng ng vn ang pht trin mnh m
vi tc tng trng tng sn phm ni a (GDP) c nm t 9,3% (so vi mc
d kin 9,5%). Tuy GDP thnh ph nm 2013 khng t ch tiu ban u nhng thu
nhp bnh qun u ngi thc t li tng so vi d kin, t 4.215 USD/ngi.

Ngun: http://vi.wikipedia.org/wiki/Th%C3%A0nh_ph%E1%BB%91_H%E1%BB%93_Ch
%C3%AD_Minh#D.C3.A2n_c.C6.B0

Quy m dn s ca Tp. HCM vo u nm 2013 l 7,750,900 ngi, mt dn s

cao nht (3.698 ngi/km2) gp 13 ln mt dn s bnh qun ca c nc (260
ngi/km2). Qu trnh th ha ti thnh ph H Ch Minh cng ko theo s ngi
nhp c vo thnh ph lm vic ngy cng gia tng. Mi nm, thnh ph tng
thm 230 ngn dn nhp c. Thnh ph H Ch Minh cng cng nhn ngi
nhp c ng gp 30% vo GDP ca thnh ph. Bn cnh , lng ngi nhp
c vo thnh ph hc tp cng gia tng. Tc tng dn s c hc bnh qun
hng nm l 2,5% vi xu hng vn tng trong khi t l tng t nhin khong
1,07%. Do , nhu cu i li ca nhng ngi nhp c ny rt cao. c bit, vo cc
dp l Tt, h t Tp. HCM v cc tnh ri li tr vo khin cho cc nh xe qu ti,
bn cnh l nhng ngi con xa qu sinh sng ti Tp. HCM. Vi thi quen hin
ti ca ngi dn th hin tng chen ln ch mua v ti cc bn xe vo nhng dp
ny khng cn xa l na, rt nhiu ngi v khng th ch i c hoc khng c
thi gian b cuc, kt qu l h khng c tm v v qu. V th, nhng
ngi ny c c c hi cm tm v trn tay v on t vi gia nh vo nhng dp
l Tt, chng ti nghin cu d n t v xe qua mng m khng cn phi xp
hng ch ly v.
Ngoi ra, lng khch du lch nc ngoi v Tp. HCM c nhu cu i n cc tnh
khc trong nc bng xe khch cng ngy mt gia tng.

Theo kt qu kho st th c n 8.3% ngi c kho st c nhu cu s dng dch

v t v xe qua website ca chng ti. So vi 91.7% cn li th con s ny cn nh,
l bi v thi quen ca ngi dn hin ti vn cha thch hnh thc t v trc
tuyn ny.
Vi s ph bin ca internet ngy cng tng cng vi nhng tin ch m chng ti
mang li, lng ngi s dng dch v ca chng ti s ngy mt gia tng, gp phn
thay i thi quen ca khch hng.
1.2.3. Phng n thay th
Phng n th nht: Ch thnh lp website bn v trc tuyn, khng m vn phng
i din.
Phng n th hai: Thnh lp website cung cp thng tin v khch c nc.

1.3. M t d n
1.3.1. Thng tin c bn d n
STT
1
2
3
4
5
6

HNG MC
Tn d n
Ch u t
Thi gian thnh lp
Thi gian hot ng
Thi gian thanh l
a im

CHI TIT
D n thnh lp i l bn v xe khch qua mng
ng Ngc Lm Nh u t c nhn 100%
Thng 01/2014 12/2014
Thng 01/2015 12/2022
Thng 01/2023 12/2023
Qun Bnh Thnh, Tp. HCM
1. ng Duy Lun
2. ng Phan Nht Minh

8
9
10

Ngi thc hin

Ngi gim st
Vn u t
Mc tiu c bn

3. B Nguyn Th Nga
4. B Nguyn Th M Thanh
ng Ngc Lm
200.000.000 VND (Hai trm triu ng)
t li nhun 500 000 000 VND sau 8 nm hot ng.

1.3.2. Thng tin c bn v i l

STT HNG MC
CHI TIT
1
Tn i l
Cng ty trch nhim hu hn V XE
2
Tn website
vexekhach.com
3
M t ngn
V xe khch trc tuyn
4
Loi hnh
i l v xe khch xut pht t Tp. HCM v ngc li
5
Hnh thc
t v xe trn website cng ty hoc gi in thoi
6
a ch
(D kin) i din cng trc Bn xe Min ng
7
i din php l ng Duy Lun
8
Ngy hot ng 01/01/2015
1.3.3. Thng tin th trng khch hng mc tiu

10

11

1.3.4. Thng tin nhn s thc hin d n

Nhn s cho d n bao gm cc thnh vin sau:
Phn cng nhn s cho d n:
Cng vic

H v tn

Qun l
chung
Qun l k
thut
Qun l hnh
chnh

Duy Lun

Tui Trnh
hc vn
21
i hc

Nhim v d kin
T vn v gim st

Phan Nht Minh 21

i hc

Qun tr website

Nguyn Th M
Thanh

21

i hc

H tr qun
Nguyn Th Nga 21
l hnh chnh

i hc

m phn, k kt hp ng.
Lp danh sch cc trang thit
b cn mua.
m phn, k kt hp ng.
Mua cc trang thit b cn
thit.

1.3.5. Thng tin website v vn phng

a. Website
Thng tin k thut website
Tn wesite: vexekhach.com
Lin kt:

Website lin kt trc tip vi cc cng thanh ton in t, ngn hng

nhm m bo khch hng cm thy tin li nht khi s dng dch v
t v trc tuyn.

Chc nng:
-

Cung cp dch v t v xe trc tuyn, giao din n gin d thao tc

gip tt c mi ngi u c th s dng c.

12

H thng bo mt m bo qu trnh thanh ton din ra tuyt i an

ton.

Cp nht 24/7 tnh hnh s lng cng nh gi v xe khch.

b. Vn phng
Vn phng thu c l mt tng trt ca mt ta nh gn bn xe min ng, vi
din tch 20m2 ( 4m x 5m). Kt cu vng chi, tng gch 20cm, xy cao t nht
3.5m. Sn tng cn mi, khng c mc meo, sn nh c lt gch sch s, khng
b nt v gch. Trn nh khng b mc meo, khng b thm nc. Ca chnh chc
chn, m bo 3 lp ca, c kha chc chn. H thng in m tng, vi nhiu
cm ti v tr thch hp. H thng chiu sng m bo hot ng tt.
Vn phng c lp t thm trang thit b, vn phng phm, trang tr nh sau:
-

My in Canon Pixma MG3170 c kh nng in mu, qut v sao chp ti liu

en trng ln hnh nh mu, fax ti liu.

My tnh bn ACER ASPIRE XC600 vi cu hnh mnh, m bo vn

hnh tt khi c nhiu ngi truy cp trang web.

in thoi bn NIPPON NP1402 m bo kt ni mng tt, thng sut trong

qu trnh lm vic.
Thit b pht wifi m bo vic kt ni mng c thng sut.
My lnh LG S09ENA lc sch khng kh, iu khin t xa.
3 bn lm vic SV1200S (2 bn dnh cho 4 ngi, 1 bn my in v my

tnh bn khi cn s dng).

1 k sch gn trn tng ti liu 3 tng.
4 gh xoay nhn vin c th nng ln h xung tu mc ch s dng.
10 gh nha cao i l cho khch hng ngi i ti vn phng khi c vic.
-Vn phng phm (s sch, bt thc, ba h s, k ng h s, kp giy, giy

in, giy mu, giy than, bng keo, ko, inh bm, kim ghim,).
- 2 cm 6 hai chu chu c cng sut ln.

13

- Bng hiu trang tr vn phng c thit k va vn, ph hp vi kch thc

vn phng. Bng hiu trong vn phng vi kch thc 0.8m x 1.5m, bng hiu treo
trc vn phng vi kch thc 1m x 3.2m, c n sng.
- 2 bnh hoa t trn bn lm vic.
- 1 ng h treo tng.
Trong qu trnh b tr cc trang thit b vn phng:
- Cc vt dng: bn gh, my in, my tnh, in thoi,vn phng phm, ng
h, bnh hoa cn b tr tit kim din tch vn phng, ngn np, thun tin s dng.
- Cc dng s dng in: my in, my tnh bn, my lnh, my qut, c
t v tr thch hp cho c phng, m bo an ton.
1.3.6. Cc giai on thc hin
a. Giai on 1: Thit kt website (01/2014 08/2014)
STT Cng vic
1
2
3
4
5
6
7

Thit k website

Chi tit
Hon thnh giao din website, cc ni dung c bn ca

t mua domain,

mt website bn v
Mua 4 tn min ti FPT: vexekhach.com,

my ch
Tm kim thng tin

vexekhach.vn, vexekhach.net, vexekhach.com.vn

Thng tin chuyn i, s lng chuyn hng ngy, im

cc hng xe
Cp nht website
m phn vi cc

i im n, thi gian, gi v, dch v

Cp nhn thng tin hng xe v cc thng tin lin quan
Mai Linh, Hong Long, Phng Trang, Thun Tho,

hng xe ln
ng k giy php

Samco

kinh doanh
Lp trang mng x
hi

ng k ti S k hoch v u t Tp. HCM

Facebook.com/vexekhach

14

8
9

Lp ti khon ngn

Vietcombank, Viettin bank, Sacombank,

hng
Tuyn nhn vin

Techcombank, HSBC, Agribank, ng , BIDV

1 nhn vin SEO

b. Giai on 2: M vn phng i din (09/2014 12/2014)

STT
1
2
3

Cng vic
Tm kim
m phn
Mua trang thit b

Trang tr vn phng

Chi tit
Dy nh i din cng trc bn xe min ng
m phn thu vn phng hp ng 3 nm
Trang thit b phc v cho hot ng ca vn phng
Trang tr chi tit cho vn phng, treo bng hiu, lp t
trang thit b

c. Giai on 3: Kinh doanh, pht trin v thanh l (01/2015 03/2023)

y l giai on ch yu qung b thng hiu, tuyn nhn s v duy tr vic kinh
doanh cho n khi thanh l d n (01/2023). Qu trnh hot ng v chi ph c bn
c trnh by trong Chng 2.

15

CHNG 2. PHN TCH TI CHNH

D N KINH DOANH I L BN V XE KHCH TRC TUYN
2.1. c lng ngn lu
2.1.1. Bng thng s
BNG THNG S
V m
T l lm pht trong nc
Chi ph u t ban u
Thit k website
Mua tn min 9 nm
m phn hp tc vi hng xe
ng k giy php kinh doanh
M ti khon ngn hng
Tuyn v tr lng 1 nhn vin SEO
Thu vn phng 4 thng cui nm 2014
Mua sm trang thit b
Trang tr vn phng
Vng i d n
Thi gian khu hao (u)
Vng i d n
Trong , thi gian thanh l
Chi ph thanh l
Huy ng vn
Vay di hn
Li sut, thc
Li sut, danh ngha
K thanh ton
Gc v li tr u
Doanh thu
S khch hng trong nm 1
S khch hng trong nm 2-4
S khch hng trong nm 5-8
Doanh thu t mi khch hng
Doanh thu t qung co t nm th 3 tr i

16

10%
20 000 000
18 642 000
3 500 000
200 000
400 000
60 500 000
26 880 000
15 000 000
10 000 000
10
8
1
30%

VND
VND
VND
VND
VND
VND
VND
VND
VND
nm
nm
nm
gi tr thanh l TSC

50% vn u t
5%
15%
4 nm

9 200
12 750
18 600
30 000
20%

Khch/nm
Khch/nm
Khch/nm
VND
doanh thu

Chi ph hot ng
Thu vn phng
in nc, internet, i li, in thoi,
S lng nhn vin
Lng nhn vin
Chi ph qun l, nm
Vn lu ng
Cn i tin mt
Khon phi thu
Hng tn kho
Khon phi tr
Thu TNDN v sut chit khu
Thu sut thu TNDN
Thu sut thu GTGT
Chi ph vn ch s hu, danh ngha

80 640 000
25 000 000
3
4 000 000
84 000 000
5%
10%
0%
10%

VND/nm
VND/nm
ngi
VND/thng
VND/nm
doanh thu
doanh thu
doanh thu
doanh thu

22%
10%
12%

2.1.2. Bng d tnh chi ph u t d n

CHI PH U T BAN U (tng t bng thng s)
20 000 000 VND
Thit k website
18 642 000 VND
Mua tn min 9 nm
3 500 000 VND
m phn hp tc vi hng xe
200 000 VND
ng k giy php kinh doanh
400 000 VND
M ti khon ngn hng
60 500 000 VND
Tuyn v tr lng 1 nhn vin SEO
26 880 000 VND
Thu vn phng 4 thng cui nm 2014
15 000 000 VND
Mua sm trang thit b
10 000 000 VND
Trang tr vn phng
Nm

Ch s gi VND

1,000

Chi ph u t

1,100 1,210 1,331 1,464 1,611 1,772 1,949 2,144 2,358

155 122 000 VND
Nm 0 : 2014 -> Nm 9: 2023

17

2.1.3. Bng lch gii ngn vn

Lch n vay: Gc v li tr u

(ngn ng)
0

N u k
Gii ngn n
Tr li
Tr n u, trong :
N gc
N cui k
Ngn lu n vay
IRR n vay

62 049
62 049
62 049
15%

62 049

49 623

35 332

18 899

9 307
21 734
12 426
49 623
(21 734)

7 443
21 734
14 290
35 332
(21 734)

5 300
21 734
16 434
18 899
(21 734)

2 835
21 734
18 899
(0)
(21 734)

2.1.4. Bng khu hao d n

Khu hao

(ngn ng)
0
1

Gi tr s sch u nm
Mc khu hao nm
Khu hao tch ly
Gi tr s sch cui nm 25 000

25 000
2 500
2 500
22 500

2
22 500
2 500
5 000
20 000

20 000
2 500
7 500
17 500

18

17 500
2 500
10 000
15 000

5
15 000
2 500
12 500
12 500

6
12 500
2 500
15 000
10 000

7
10 000
2 500
17 500
7 500

8
7 500
2 500
20 000
5 000

2.1.5. Bng bo co thu nhp

Doanh thu

(ngn ng)
0
1
303 600
303 600

Doanh thu t bn v
Doanh thu t qung co
Doanh thu
Chi ph hot ng

(ngn ng)
0
1

Thu vn phng
in nc, internet, i li,
in thoi,
Lng nhn vin
Chi ph qun l
Tng chi ph hot ng
Bo co kt qu hot
ng kinh doanh

462 825
462 825

509 108
127 277
636 384

560 018
101 822
661 840

898 665
81 457
980 122

988 531
65 166
1 053 697

1 087 384
52 133
1 139 517

1 196 123
41 706
1 237 829

88 704
27 500

97 574
30 250

107 332
33 275

118 065
36 603

129 872
40 263

142 859
44 289

157 145
48 718

172 859
53 590

158 400
92 400
367 004

174 240
101 640
403 704

191 664
111 804
444 075

210 830
122 984
488 482

231 913
135 283
537 331

255 105
148 811
591 064

280 615
163 692
650 170

308 677
180 061
715 187

(ngn ng)
0

Doanh thu
Chi ph hot ng
Khu hao
EBIT
Chi ph li vay
Li nhun trc thu
Thu TNDN
Li nhun rng

1
303 600
367 004
2 500
(65 904)
9 307
(75 211)
(75 211)

462 825
403 704
2 500
56 621
7 443
49 177
10 819
38 358

636 384
444 075
2 500
189 810
5 300
184 510
40 592
143 918

661 840
488 482
2 500
170 857
2 835
168 023
36 965
131 058

980 122
537 331
2 500
440 291
440 291
96 864
343 427

1 053 697
591 064
2 500
460 133
460 133
101 229
358 904

1 139 517
650 170
2 500
486 847
486 847
107 106
379 740

1 237 829
715 187
2 500
520 142
520 142
114 431
405 711

19

2.1.6. Bng ngn lu

Vn lu ng
Cn i tin mt
Khon phi thu
Khon phi tr
Thay i vn lu ng

(ngn ng)
0
1
16 698
33 396
24 710

(ngn ng)
0
1

Thay i cn i tin mt
Thay i khon phi thu
Thay i khon phi tr

16 698
33 396
24 710

25 455
50 911
27 181

35 001
70 002
29 900

36 401
72 802
32 890

8 757
17 515
2 471

9 546
19 092
2 718

1 400
2 800
2 990

17 506
35 011
3 289

4 047
8 093
3 618

4 720
9 440
3 980

5 407
10 814
4 378

(68 081)
(136 161)
(48 154)

1 139
517
3 980

1 237
829
4 378

Bo co ngn lu danh ngha (ngn ng)

0
1
2
NGN LU VO
303 600 462 825
Doanh thu
24 710
2 471
Thay i khon phi tr
Thanh l ti sn c nh
328 310 465 296
Tng dng tin vo
NGN LU RA
155 122
Chi u t
367 004 403 704
Chi ph hot ng
3
17 515
Thay i khon phi thu

Thay i cn i tin mt
Chi ph thanh l TSC
Thu TNDN
Tng dng tin ra
155 122

3 396
1
6 698
417 098

8 757
10 819
440 796

5
53 907
107 813
36 178

6
57 953
115 907
39 796

7
62 673
125 347
43 776

68 081
136 161
48 154

636 384

661 840

980 122

2 718

2 990

3 289

1 053
697
3 618

639 103

664 830

983 411

1 057 315

1 143 496

1 242 206

(48 154)
11 790
(36 364)

444 075
19 092

488 482
2 800

537 331
35 011

591 064
8 093

650 170
9 440

715 187
10 814

(136 161)

9 546

1 400

17 506

4 047

4 720

5 407

(68 081)

40 592
513 304

36 965
529 647

96 864
686 711

101 229
704 433

107 106
771 437

114 431
845 840

3 537
(200 705)

20

Bo co ngn lu thc

(ngn ng)
0
1

NGN LU VO
Doanh thu
Thay i khon phi tr
Thanh l TSC
Tng dng tin vo
NGN LU RA
Chi u t
155 122
Chi ph hot ng
Thay i khon phi thu
Thay i cn i tin mt
Chi ph thanh l
Thu TNDN
Tng dng tin ra 155 122

276 000
22 464

382 500
2 042

478 125
2 042

452 045
2 042

608 579
2 042

594 784
2 042

584 752
2 042

577 456
2 042

298 464

384 542

480 167

454 088

610 621

596 827

586 794

579 498

(20 422)
5 000
(15 422)

333 640
30 360
15 180

333 640
14 475
7 238

333 640
14 344
7 172

333 640
1 912
956

333 640
21 739
10 870

379 180

8 941
364 294

30 497
385 653

25 248
361 756

60 145
426 394

333 640
4 568
2 284
57 141
397 634

333 640
4 844
2 422
54 962
395 869

333 640
5 045
2 522
53 383
394 590

(57 746)
(28 873)
1 500
(85 118)

2.2. Hnh thnh ngn lu t do

2.2.1. Phn tch theo quan im tng u t
Quan im tng u t
Ngn lu rng d n, danh ngha
WACC^ danh ngha
NPV
IRR danh ngha

Ngn lu rng d n, thc

(ngn ng)
0
1
(155 122) (88 788)
13,8%
612 448
45,70%

(155 122)

(80 716)

2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
24 501 125 798 135 182 296 700 352 882 372 060 396 367 164 341

20 248

94 514
21

92 331

184 227 199 193 190 926 184 908

69 697

WACC^ thc
NPV
IRR thc

3,5%
269 664
23,89%

2.2.2. Phn tch theo quan im ch u t

Quan im ch u t

(ngn ng)
0
1

Ngn lu rng ch u t, danh

ngha
rE danh ngha
NPV
IRR danh ngha
Ngn lu rng ch u
t, thc
rE thc
NPV
IRR thc

(93 073) (110 521) 2 767 104 065 113 449 296 700 352 882 372 060 396 367 164 341

12,00%
691 409
39,78%

(93 073) (100 474)

2 287

78 185

77 487

184 227 199 193

190 926

184 908

69 697

1,82%
303 759
27,07%

2.3. T l an ton tr n (DSCR)

n v: (ngn ng)
0
Ngn lu rng d n, danh ngha (155 122)
Ngn lu n vay
62 049
DSCR
(2,5)

1
(88 788)
(21 734)
(4,09)

2
24 501
(21 734)
1,13

3
125 798
(21 734)
5,79

Trung bnh DSCR = 1,31.

22

4
5
6
7
8
135 182 296 700 352 882 372 060 396 367
(21 734)
6,22

9
164 341

2.4. Xc nh chi ph vn
Chi ph vn d n
Chi ph vn ch s hu
Chi ph n vay
Chi ph vn bnh qun trng s (WACC danh ngha)
Chi ph vn bnh qun trng s (WACC thc)

12%
15%
14%
3%

Chi ph vn ch s hu l li nhun ti thiu ch s hu nhn c khi em gi

ngn hng t nhn, trong khi chi ph n vay l li sut hin nay ti th trng Vit
Nam m ch s hu c th vay c vi t cch khch hng c nhn.
2.5. Nhn xt v nh gi tnh kh thi v mt ti chnh ca d n
2.5.1. Kt qu m hnh ti chnh c s
Tnh kh thi d n
Quan im tng u t
Quan im ch d n

Danh ngha
WACC
NPV
IRR
13,8% 612 448 45,70%
12,00% 691 409 39,78%

Thc
WACC NPV
3,5% 269 664
1,82% 303 759

IRR
23,89%
27,07%

Theo kt qu phn tch ti chnh t bng trn, ta thy NPV ca d n ln hn 0 trong

c hai quan im, v IRR lun ln hn chi ph c hi ca vn nn d n c tnh kh
thi v mt ti chnh cho c ch d n v tng u t.
2.5.2. T l an ton tr n (DSCR)
Kt qu cho thy DSCR bng 1,31 nm trong ngng cho php ca cc ngn hng
(trn 1,2 hoc t 1,15 1,35), v vy d n kh thi khi xt theo quan im ca cc
ngn hng vi mc li sut 12%.

23

2.5.2. Bin dng ngn lu

Ngn lu rng ca d n tng dn u qua cc nm vi mc thay i kh n nh

(khong 80.000/nm). Hai nm u ca d n, ngn lu rng m, ng ngha vi
vic nh u t chp nhn l, t nm 2016 tr v sau ngn lu rng lun dng v
m bo tc tng trng kh quan. c bit vo nm 2022, ngn lu rng t
mc 400.000 - cao nht trong qu trnh thc hin d n. Vo giai on cui d n,
ngn lu rng tng chm v gim vo nm 2023.
Nhn chung bin dng ngn lu khng c g bt thng v kh ph bin vi nhiu
loi hnh kinh doanh hin nay.

24

CHNG 3: PHN TCH NHY V RI RO

3.1. Xc nh cc bin s quan trng v ri ro v nhng dao ng kh d ca
cc bin s
Cc bin c th nh hng n li ch ca d n:
- Lm pht: t l lm pht lun thay i hng nm nhng khng nhiu, tuy vy lm
pht vn c th nh hng n chi ph ca cc hng xe, dn n thay i gi v,
lng khch hng v mc hoa hng nhn c, v nh hng n doanh thu ca i
l.
- S lng khch hng v Doanh thu t mi khch hng: y l bin nh hng trc
tip ti doanh s ca i l.
- Lng nhn vin: v chi hot ng chnh gm tin thu vn phng (chim 24%
trong nm 2015) c nh t u lc k hp ng thu vn phng, in nc
internet (chim 7%) th khng bin i nhiu theo gi nh nc, chi ph qun l
(chim 25%) ch tr cho 1 ngi v tha thun mc tng theo lm pht vi ch
u t, do ch c lng ca nhn vin (chim 43%) thay i s tc ng nhiu
n chi ph chung, lng nhn vin ph thuc vo mt bng chung ca th trng
cng lm vic i l ra.
- S lng nhn vin: hin ti nhu cu nhn vin t nn ch cn 3 nhn vin, nhng
mi s pht trin hay thay i cn tng lng nhn vin s thay i rt ln NPV v
RSS.

25

3.2.Phn tch nhy

3.2.1. Phn tch nhy mt chiu

NPV d n
612 447
IRR d n
45,7%

6%
565 820
6%
41,2%

7%
577 374
7%
42,3%

8%
588 997
8%
43,4%

9%
600 689
9%
44,6%

Lm pht
10%
11%
612 447
624 271
10%
11%
45,7%
46,8%

12%
636 158
12%
48,0%

13%
648 108
13%
49,1%

14%
660 118
14%
50,2%

15%
672 188
15%
51,3%

Lng khch hng nm 1

9 200
10 120
11 040
612 447
638 592
664 737
9 200
10 120
11 040
45,7%
48,6%
51,8%

11 960
687 813
11 960
54,8%

12 880
708 089
12 880
57,7%

13 800
728 364
13 800
60,8%

16 575
907 115
16 575
64,3%

NPV d n
612 447
IRR d n
45,7%

5 520
507 869
5 520
36,4%

6 440
534 014
6 440
38,4%

7 360
560 158
7 360
40,6%

8 280
586 303
8 280
43,1%

NPV d n
612 447
IRR d n
45,7%

7 650
173 319
7 650
21,3%

8 925
297 586
8 925
27,5%

10 200
408 632
10 200
33,5%

Lng khch hng nm 2-4

11 475
12 750
14 025
15 300
514 225
612 447
710 670
808 893
11 475
12 750
14 025
15 300
39,7%
45,7%
51,8%
58,1%

14 880
340 194
14 880
36,6%

Lng khch hng nm 5-8

16 740
18 600
20 460
22 320
476 321
612 447
748 574
884 701
16 740
18 600
20 460
22 320
41,5%
45,7%
49,3%
52,4%

NPV d n
612 447
IRR d n
45,7%

11 160
67 940
11 160
21,0%

13 020
204 067
13 020
30,2%

26

17 850
19 125
1 005 338 1 103 560
17 850
19 125
70,6%
76,8%

24 180
26 040
27 900
1 020 828 1 156 955 1 293 081
24 180
26 040
27 900
55,3%
57,9%
60,2%

NPV d n
612 447
IRR d n
45,7%

22 000
(95 926)
22 000
8,1%

24 000
84 089
24 000
18,6%

26 000
262 993
26 000
28,2%

Doanh thu t mi khch hng

28 000
30 000
32 000
34 000
438 785
612 447
786 110
959 773
28 000
30 000
32 000
34 000
37,2%
45,7%
54,1%
62,4%

36 000
38 000
40 000
1 133 435 1 305 987 1 475 736
36 000
38 000
40 000
70,7%
78,8%
86,5%

Lng nhn vin

NPV d n 4 000 000 4 400 000 4 840 000 5 324 000 5 856 400 6 442 040 7 086 244 7 794 868 8 574 355 9 431 791
612 447
612 447
533 233
446 097
348 804
239 430
119 118
(13 225) (162 999) (333 699) (521 909)
IRR d n 4 000 000 4 400 000 4 840 000 5 324 000 5 856 400 6 442 040 7 086 244 7 794 868 8 574 355 9 431 791
45,7%
45,7%
41,3%
36,6%
31,4%
25,7%
19,7%
13,2%
5,9%
-2,4%
-11,8%

NPV d n
612 447
IRR d n
45,7%

2
876 496
2
61,4%

3
612 447
3
45,7%

S lng nhn vin

4
5
346 887
72 972
4
5
31,3%
17,4%

6
(207 627)
6
3,7%

27

7
(500 297)
7
-10,7%

T kt qu phn tch nhy mt chiu, rt ra c mt s nhn xt sau:

-

Lm pht: do bin dao ng nh nn nhn chung khng nh hng nhiu

n NPV v IRR d n.

Lng khch hng qua cc nm: c nh hng kh mnh ti NPV v IRR d

n theo hng ng bin, c th khi s lng khch hng tng 50% th NPV
d n tng gn gp i (c bit l lng khch t nm 2).

Doanh thu t khch hng: y l bin c nh gi c nh hng mnh m

nht n NPV d n qua kt qu phn tch nhy mt chiu. C th khi
doanh thu tng t 30.000 ln 40.000 NPV tng 2,4 ln, IRR t mc 86,5%.

Nhn vin: lng v s lng nhn vin c nh hng kh mnh n NPV v

IRR d n theo hng nghch bin. Khi lng hoc s lng nhn vin tng
qu nhiu s lm NPV v IRR gim mnh thm ch xung di mc 0.

28

3.2.2. Phn tch nhy hai chiu

NPV d n

Doanh thu t
mi khch
hng

612 447
26 000
27 000
28 000
29 000
30 000
31 000
32 000
33 000
34 000

5 520
172 359
257 833
341 178
424 524
507 869
591 214
674 560
757 905
841 251

6 440
195 017
281 363
365 580
449 797
534 014
618 231
702 447
786 664
870 881

7 360
217 676
304 893
389 982
475 070
560 158
645 247
730 335
815 423
900 512

Lng khch hng nm 1

8 280
9 200
240 334
262 993
328 423
351 953
414 383
438 785
500 343
525 616
586 303
612 447
672 263
699 279
758 223
786 110
844 182
872 941
930 142
959 773

10 120
285 652
375 484
463 186
550 889
638 592
726 295
813 998
901 700
989 403

11 040
308 310
399 014
487 588
576 162
664 737
753 311
839 991
926 218
1 012 444

11 960
330 969
422 544
511 990
600 911
687 813
774 716
861 618
948 521
1 035 423

12 880
353 628
445 354
532 932
620 510
708 089
795 667
883 245
970 824
1 058 402

7 360
6,2%
16,1%
24,9%
33,0%
40,6%
48,0%
55,2%
62,3%
69,4%

Lng khch hng nm 1

8 280
9 200
7,1%
8,1%
17,3%
18,6%
26,5%
28,2%
35,0%
37,2%
43,1%
45,7%
50,9%
54,1%
58,6%
62,4%
66,3%
70,7%
73,9%
78,8%

10 120
9,1%
20,0%
30,1%
39,5%
48,6%
57,6%
66,5%
74,8%
83,1%

11 040
10,1%
21,5%
32,1%
42,1%
51,8%
61,1%
70,0%
78,9%
87,7%

11 960
11,3%
23,1%
34,2%
44,9%
54,8%
64,3%
73,8%
83,3%
92,7%

12 880
12,5%
24,8%
36,6%
47,5%
57,7%
67,8%
77,9%
88,0%
98,2%

IRR d n

Doanh thu t
mi khch
hng

45,7%
22 000
24 000
26 000
28 000
30 000
32 000
34 000
36 000
38 000

5 520
4,6%
13,8%
22,0%
29,5%
36,4%
42,9%
49,3%
55,4%
61,5%

6 440
5,4%
14,9%
23,4%
31,2%
38,4%
45,4%
52,1%
58,7%
65,2%

29

NPV d n

Doanh thu t
mi khch
hng

612 447
22 000
24 000
26 000
28 000
30 000
32 000
34 000
36 000
38 000

7 650
(458 231)
(300 343)
(142 456)
15 432
173 319
331 207
489 094
646 038
797 810

8 925
(367 102)
(200 930)
(34 758)
131 414
297 586
460 234
617 921
775 608
932 184

10 200
(275 973)
(101 517)
72 939
243 872
408 632
573 391
737 135
897 701
1 057 156

15 300
60 776
248 616
435 375
622 134
808 893
995 652
1 182 411
1 369 170
1 554 817

16 575
133 887
327 194
520 501
713 808
907 115
1 100 422
1 293 730
1 487 037
1 679 232

17 850
205 917
405 772
605 627
805 483
1 005 338
1 205 193
1 405 048
1 604 904
1 803 648

14 025
12,7%
23,7%
33,6%
42,9%
51,8%
60,7%
69,4%
78,1%
86,7%

15 300
17,7%
28,8%
39,0%
48,7%
58,1%
67,3%
76,5%
85,6%
94,5%

16 575
22,6%
34,0%
44,5%
54,6%
64,3%
73,9%
83,4%
92,9%
102,1%

17 850
27,5%
39,2%
50,1%
60,5%
70,6%
80,5%
90,3%
100,1%
109,6%

Lng khch hng nm 5-8

14 880
16 740
18 600
20 460
(295 579) (195 752)
(95 926)
3 900

22 320
103 726

24 180
203 553

26 040
303 379

IRR d n

Doanh thu t
mi khch
hng

NPV d n
Doanh thu t
mi khch

45,7%
22 000
24 000
26 000
28 000
30 000
32 000
34 000
36 000
38 000
612 447
22 000

7 650
-8,8%
-0,3%
7,3%
14,5%
21,3%
28,0%
34,6%
41,2%
47,5%
11 160
(540 899)

8 925
-5,3%
3,9%
12,1%
19,9%
27,5%
34,7%
41,6%
48,6%
55,5%
13 020
(412 176)

Lng khch hng nm 2-4

11 475
12 750
14 025
(184 845)
(95 926)
(17 020)
(3 047)
84 089
168 957
171 053
262 993
350 248
342 885
438 785
530 459
514 225
612 447
710 670
681 339
786 110
890 881
848 454
959 773
1 071 092
1 015 568 1 133 435 1 251 302
1 181 571 1 305 987 1 430 402

10 200
-1,3%
8,5%
17,5%
25,8%
33,5%
41,2%
48,7%
56,0%
63,1%

Lng khch hng nm 2-4

11 475
12 750
3,2%
8,1%
13,6%
18,6%
22,8%
28,2%
31,4%
37,2%
39,7%
45,7%
47,6%
54,1%
55,4%
62,4%
63,2%
70,7%
70,9%
78,8%

30

hng

24 000
26 000
28 000
30 000
32 000
34 000
36 000
38 000

(379 830)
(219 871)
(70 120)
67 940
205 303
342 665
480 027
616 278

(243 930)
(90 936)
57 630
204 067
350 504
496 942
643 379
788 705

(133 714)
27 040
184 682
340 194
495 706
651 219
806 731
961 132

IRR d n

Doanh thu t
mi khch
hng

45,7%
22 000
24 000
26 000
28 000
30 000
32 000
34 000
36 000
38 000

11 160
#NUM!
#NUM!
-27,9%
5,2%
21,0%
33,6%
44,9%
55,5%
65,5%

13 020
-46,3%
-13,1%
5,2%
18,7%
30,2%
40,7%
50,6%
60,3%
69,5%

14 880
-12,4%
3,2%
15,8%
26,7%
36,6%
46,0%
55,2%
64,2%
73,0%

45,7%
2
3
4

4 000 000
61,4%
45,7%
31,3%

4 400 000
58,1%
41,3%
25,6%

4 840 000
54,6%
36,6%
19,5%

IRR d n
S lng
nhn vin

(24 813)
145 017
311 733
476 321
640 908
805 496
970 083
1 133 559

84 089
262 993
438 785
612 447
786 110
959 773
1 133 435
1 305 987

192 990
380 970
565 836
748 574
931 312
1 114 050
1 296 787
1 478 414

301 892
498 946
692 888
884 701
1 076 514
1 268 327
1 460 140
1 650 841

410 793
616 923
819 940
1 020 828
1 221 716
1 422 604
1 623 492
1 823 268

519 695
734 899
946 991
1 156 955
1 366 918
1 576 881
1 786 844
1 995 696

20 460
14,0%
23,6%
32,6%
41,1%
49,3%
57,3%
65,4%
73,4%
81,3%

22 320
18,8%
27,8%
36,4%
44,6%
52,4%
60,2%
68,1%
75,9%
83,7%

24 180
22,8%
31,5%
39,7%
47,6%
55,3%
62,9%
70,5%
78,2%
85,8%

26 040
26,3%
34,7%
42,7%
50,4%
57,9%
65,3%
72,8%
80,4%
87,8%

6 442 040
42,4%
19,7%
-2,6%

7 086 244
37,8%
13,2%
-12,0%

7 794 868
32,8%
5,9%
-23,0%

8 574 355
27,2%
-2,4%

Lng khch hng nm 5-8

16 740
18 600
0,1%
8,1%
12,2%
18,6%
22,8%
28,2%
32,5%
37,2%
41,5%
45,7%
50,3%
54,1%
59,0%
62,4%
67,6%
70,7%
76,1%
78,8%
Lng nhn vin
5 324 000 5 856 400
50,8%
46,8%
31,4%
25,7%
13,0%
5,7%

31

T kt qu phn tch nhy hai chiu, rt ra c mt s nhn xt sau:

Khch hng: y l yu t then cht nh hng mnh m nht n NPV v IRR d
n (c bit l t nm 2 tr v sau). Ch mt gim nh ca 2 yu t s lng v
doanh thu khch hng cng lm NPV < 0 v y IRR xung mc rt thp. Ngc
li, khi s lng v doanh thu khch hng tng, NPV cng tng theo vi tc gp
nhiu ln, v vi mt mc cao, IRR > 100%.
Nhn vin: s lng v lng nhn vin c nh hng khng nh theo hng ngc
chiu n NPV v IRR, tuy nhin NPV v IRR m, lng v s lng nhn vin
phi tng kh nhiu.
Tm li, qua phn tch nhy mt v hai chiu, c yu t khch hng (s lng v
doanh thu) v nhn vin (s lng v lng) u nh hng mnh ti NPV v IRR
d n, c bit yu t khch hng nu bin gim cao rt d lm NPV v IRR
gim ti mc rt thp (thm ch < 0), iu cho thy nu khng kim sot cht ch
cc yu t lin quan khch hng, ri ro l rt ln.
Tuy nhin, do k thut phn tch nhy ch yu o mc bin thin ca NPV v
IRR khi cc bin khc thay i m khng quan tm kh nng xy ra cc trng hp
cng nh mc tng quan gia cc bin nn cc kt qu trn ni chung phn
nh khng tht s st vi thc t. Ni mt cch khc, cc kt qu trn ch cho thy
yu t khch hng v nhn vin c tc ng mnh m ti kt qu ca d n, t ,
nh u t cn c bit quan tm n cc yu t ny nhm gim thiu ti a ri ro
phi gnh chu.

32

3.3. Phn tch kch bn

Phn tch kch bn

Gi tr

Kch bn

Kch bn

Kch bn
trung bnh

hin ti

tt

xu

S lng nhn vin

Lng nhn vin

4 000 000 3 000 000 5 000 000

4 000 000

Lng khch nm 1

9 200

12 880

5 520

9 200

Lng khch nm 2-4

12 750

17 850

7 650

12 750

Lng khch nm 5-8

18 600

26 040

11 160

18 600

Doanh thu t mi khch hng

30 000

38 000

22 000

30 000

Kt qu:

612 447

2 976 847 (1 640 039)

Bin nh hng:

NPV

612 447

Da vo kt qu phn tch kch bn, ta thy NPV < 0 khi v ch khi kch bn xu xy
ra, trng hp kch bn tt v trung bnh u c NPV > 0, do khng c s
bc b hay hon ton chp thun d n. Ni cch khc, do NPV i lc dng, i
lc m nn kt qu thu c l khng dt khot. Tc l d n cn ang tn ti ri ro
v nh u t chp nhn d n ng ngha vi vic chp nhn ri ro .

33

3.4. Phn tch Monte-Carlo

Hnh 1: nh chp kt qu chy Monte Carlo

Kt qu phn tch Monte-Carlo vi 500 ln chy ngu nhin vi cc bin: S lng
nhn vin, Lng nhn vin, Doanh thu t mi nhn vin, Lng khch nm 1;
Lng khch nm 2-4; Lng khch nm 5-8. V bin lm pht c tc ng hai
chiu n NPV nn khng c a vo phn tch.
Kt qu t phn tch ta c:
Statistic
Value
Trials
500
Average
620 073
Standard Deviation
613 343
Range Minimum
(854 036)
Range Maximun
2 264 767
Median
609 828
Kurtosis
(0,43739)
Skewness
0,05384
Theo phn tch Monte-Carlo, ta c gi tr trung bnh ca NPV l 620 073, v xc
sut 60% rng NPV ca d n ny s nm trong khong (6 730;1 233 415). Nh vy,
d n ny kh thi theo phn tch Monte-Carlo.

34

CHNG 4: KT LUN
Kinh t x hi ngy cng pht trin, hi nhp kinh t quc t ngy cng mnh, s
chuyn dch c cu kinh t gia cc vng min ngy cng cao. C cu lao ng
cng c s dch chuyn mnh m. T ko theo s di chuyn ch , ch lm vic
ca rt nhiu ngi. Mi ngi c nhu cu i li ngy cng nhiu. Mt khc, do kinh
t pht trin nn nhu cu i thm quan, thm ving ngi nh xa tng.
Trn thc t nhu cu i li ca ngi dn tng t bin. V vi cch mua v bn v
xe truyn thng khng p ng c nhu cu bc xc . Thng din ra cnh
chen ln x y mua v. T thc t gy cho ngi dn rt nhiu bc xc
nh ch vi ting m khng mua c v, n lt mua v th c thng bo ht
v. Cn i vi cc cng ty vn ti th cng gp kh khn trong vic t chc bn v
xe. Cnh chen ln x y to iu kin cho bn mc ti, cp git, bn v ch
en hot ng. Cng lm cho tnh hnh thm ti t, ngi dn v doanh nghip cng
thm bc xc.
Khi m cng ngh thng tin pht trin mnh, mng internet v tn tng h gia nh,
ngi dn thng xuyn tip xc vi my tnh, mng internet th h thng ra i l
rt ph hp vi tnh hnh thc tin. c bit vi nhng ngi bn rn khng c thi
gian ra bn xe mua v th vi nhng ci click chut m mua c v xe th d n
ny tht c ngha.
Qua qu trnh phn tch nhy, phn tch kch bn, phn tch Monte-Carlo, mc d
cha hon ton trit tiu c ri ro nhng d n vn rt ng c xem xt. Hn
th na, vi nhu cu xe khch rt cao hin nay v ha hn s tip tc tng mnh
trong thi gian ti, cng thm s ra i v bnh trng ca nhiu hng xe nhm
nghin cu tin rng d n l rt ng c t nhiu k vng.
Khi h thng a vo hot ng khng ch mng li s tin li cho ngi dn trong
vic mua v xe m cn gip cc cng ty vn ti phc v hnh khch tt hn. Cc

35

cng ty s qun l tt hn lng v bn ra, c th bn v xe ti tn tay ngi c nhu

cu thc s. T nng cao cht lng phc v, nng cao sc cnh tranh ca cng
ty v gp phn gi gn trt t x hi, xy dng x hi vn minh hn.
H thng c xy dng da trn s kho st thc t cc bn xe. a s cc cng
ty vn ti vn cha c h thng bn v xe qua website m vn bn v theo cch
truyn thng. V vy h thng t v xe khch cht lng cao l mt i hi cn
thit cc cng ty vn ti phc v tt hn cho nhng thng ca mnh.

36

TI LIU THAM KHO

1. Ti liu giy
1. Jack R. Meredith & Samuel J. Mante, Jr., 2009, Project Management A
Managerial Approach, Fifth Edition, John Wiley & Sons, Inc.
2. Robert K. Wysocki, 2006, Effective Software Project Management, Second
Edition, Wiley Publishing, Inc.
3. Trn Thin Trc Phng, 2013, Ti liu mn Thm nh v qun tr d n u t,
bn sao ti liu.
4. Fulbright, 2013, Ti liu kha Thm nh u t cng thng 7/2013, Chng
trnh ging dy kinh tt Fulbright.
5. Dux Raymond Sy, 2012, SharePoint 2010 for Project Management, Second
Edition, OREILLY.
2. Ti liu trc tuyn
1. Richard Newton, 2006, Project Management Step by Step: How to Plan and
Manage a Highly Successful Project, E-book, Pearson Education.
2. Bch khoa ton th in t, 2013, Thnh ph H Ch Minh, Wikipedia.
http://vi.wikipedia.org/wiki/Th%C3%A0nh_ph%E1%BB%91_H%E1%BB%93_Ch
%C3%AD_Minh
3. Palisade Maker of the worlds leading risk and decision analysis software, 2013,
Monte Carlo Simulation, Palisade Corporation.
http://www.palisade.com/risk/monte_carlo_simulation.asp
4. Vatgia.com Thin ng mua sm, 2013, Cc sn phm ni tht vn phng,
Cng ty C phn Vt gi Vit Nam.
http://www.vatgia.com/home/quicksearch.php?keyword=n%E1%BB%99i+th
%E1%BA%A5t+v%C4%83n+ph%C3%B2ng
5. L Trng - Nh t Thnh ph H Ch Minh, 2013, Vn phng cho thu,
Nhagiare.com
http://nhagiare.com/

37