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Trading With

DiNapoli
Levels
The Practical Application of Fibonacci Analysis to Investment Markets

Joe DiNapoli

33
65.42 44



, . -, . 24/27
III 6


44 . .: ,
2001.-332 .

Copyright 1998 Coast


Investment Software, Inc.
and Joe DiNapoli
,

ISBN 5-93855-010-6

, 2001


. . :
(Pat Prichard) , , .
(Lee and Dave Winfield) , .
(Elyce Picciotti) (Steve Roehl), .
(Tim Slater), (Neal Hughes) (Dian
Belanger) .
, .
, , .
" " (Aspen Graphics) ,
.
,
. , - : (Larry Pesavento),
(Jake Bernstein), (Bill Williams), (Steve
Conlon), "",
, , , (Robert Krausz).


:........................................................................xvi
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1. ............................................................
1.


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V111

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3

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4. ...............................34
5. ( )...................34
6. ( )........................34
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2. .............................................................35
4.

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IX

5.

MACD/STOCHASTIC...........................................................51

:...........................................................................................51
, :................................................51
, ! :....................................52
( ):.........................................................52
: .......................................................................................53
() :........................................54
(MAV):.................................54
:.................................................................55
:......................................................................................55
:.....................................................................55
, , ,
:.........................................................................56
:.................................................................................................57
:......................................................................57
...........................................................................59
MACD (DEMA) : ..........................................59
:..........................................................................67
:............................................................................................................ 69

6.
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9 ,
.....................................................71

:...........................................................................................71
" " - " " . . . 72
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" ":..............................................................86
:..........................................................................87
" " " ":...............90
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" ":.............................................................94
" " "":.......................97
" " " ":...............98
"":..................................................................................................................98
"":..........................................................................................................105
"":...........................................................................................................105
"-": ...................................................................................105
"-":......................................................108
:.......................................................................109

7
, ............................................111
:.........................................................................................111
:.............................................................................................................112
MACD:.......................................................................................................................113
(RSI):..........................................................113
(CCI):..................................................................114
:....................................................................115
:...............................116
:.................................................................................121
:.......................................................................................124
-:....................................................................127
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3. ........................................129
8.
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9.
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xi

D-:.......................................148
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- :...........................................157

10.
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11.
... 173
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:................................................................179
D- LPO:.....................................................179
:..................................................................184
:.......................................................................................................188
FIBNODES:....................................................................................189
-:.................................................................................192
FIBNODES:......................................................................194
:...................................195
D-:...........................................................................................197
:................................................................201

:..............................................................................................203

12.
...............................................................205
.................................................................................... 205

1:..........................................................................................................207
2:..........................................................................................................210
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:.......................................................................215

XII

13.
................................................................217
:.........................................................................................217
"": .................................219
"": ...................................221
" ": ..................................222
" ": ..................................227
S&P:...............228
( 13-11):..................................................231
" ": ............................234
:.......................................................................235

14.
.....................................237
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15.
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S&P:.......................................................................262
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111

.........................................................................275

3x3
....................................................275
:................................................................................................275
:...........................................................................................................275

FibNodes TradeStation.........................................................................276
Windows 3.1:........................................................................276
Windows 95:.........................................................................276

FibNodes
ASPEN GRAPHICS Windows 3.1.............................................................277
FibNodes
ASPEN GRAPHICS Windows 95...................................................................278
FibNodes HA ASPEN GRAPHICS:..........................................278
FibNodes ASPEN GRAPHICS:............278

D
TradeStation DiNapoli Levels. . 279
- (MACD).................279
........................................................279
.................................................................279
................................................................280

%............................................................................................280
%D . . . 280
...............................281

TRADESTATION ...................................................................281

XIV

:.............................................................................. 283
............................................................................283
..........................................................................................283

(MAV) .....................................284
:.......................................................................................284
() .......................................284
-
(MACD)...................................................................................................285
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FibNodes:.............................................................................................. 286

FibNodes:...................................................................................286
:................................................................................286
FibNodes:.....................................................................................287
:...........................................................................................................287
FibNodes:.................................................................................288

-:......................................................289
-
S&P 15................291

S&P 15.
" "..............................................................294

I
:.............................................295

J
COAST INVESTMENT SOFTWARE, INC................296

:...............................................................................297
: ................................298
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XV

:
" " . , , . (John Bollinger) (Bellinger Bands - ),
(Larry Williams) (Williams %R - %R ), (George Lane) (Lane
Stochastics - ), , . , , ... , .

XVI


, , . , 1
2, .
, ? : " , ?
? , , ?" , . : , . , , .
. .
.
1986 . ,
.
. , , S&P. (Futures Symposium International) 1986 . -, .
: , .
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-, , , , . , , - . -
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: " , . ,
". . 35. , , .
. . . , , . , 50,
. 20
,
. , , .
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XV11


( CIS - CIS TRADING PACKAGE).
, ,
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FibNode,
. "", - . !
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,
. , , , , , . ,
, , - ! , . , , Coast
1990 ., - - , .
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MONEY MANAGEMENT AND TREND ANALYSIS). , FibNodes " () CIS"
(CIS TRADING (graphics) PACKAGE).
, .
, . , , - -
. .
, , , ,
. .
, .
. , 1987 . 1990 ., -, . , .
: - , . . ,
.

XV111

1984 1987 . , , ,
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, 1989 . Technical Analysis of Stocks & Commodities , - "" . "" .
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12

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14

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17

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20

. (Displaced Moving Average, DMA), ,


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21

22

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23


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24

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25

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26

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27

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. -
(Fibonacci Retracement Expansion Analysis),
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Predictor), 80- . ,
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, , , .
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, . ,
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, . , ,
.

28

2-10

2-11

29

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( ) , ?
, ,
, .
, , .

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, ,
. .
,
. (Fibonacci Expansion Analysis)
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, .

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30

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.

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32

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1 .
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, , .
, . , . . : 30
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", " (FIBONACCI, MONEY MANAGEMENT, AND TREND ANALYSIS)


. , .
.
, ( ), . ,
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, .
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, , .

33

2. :
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2

Joe DiNapoli, "THE X'D TRADE (or Where's My Fill?)," Technical Analysis of Stocks & Commodities magazine, March 1995,
page 88.

34

. , , .
,
. .
.

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4, 5 6
4.
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8, 9, 10, 11 13
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( ),
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38

"", 2, ,
. , , 1.



.
1. ,
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3x3
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25x5

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9

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40

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41

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42

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43

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3x3 . DMA
, , .. , . (N=0), ,
, , .

44

,
, ,
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DMA, 1986-87 , .
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. DMA. , , . , " CIS"
(CIS TRADING PACKAGE), (George Damusis). DMA DMA. ,
- , -
DMA.
, ,
.
, , , ,
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5%,
? , . ,

. : , . . . , , ,
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.

45

(Gilt) 25x0, 25x5.


.
, 25x5 , 25x0 - .

4-4

. ? ?
, , .
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. , MACD/Stochastic.

46

4-5 , 3x3
30- S&P.

4-5

""?
. , . , . DMA
, DMA ,
, 25x5.

, , , , ?
,
-.
DMA?
3x3 - , -
.
7x5 - DMA , .
25x5 - DMA.

47

, 3x3, 25x5?
, ,
.
DMA (Bund).

4-6

, , . ,
3x3, 25x5.
, 25x5 , , 3x3 . . , , , 3x3
, . 6.
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! , , ,
. , .
: - .
, - , -

48

, , . . , , . . . ,
,
.

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, , , . ,
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( 4-7).

4-7

,
3x3. ,
, , , , . , .

4
9

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, 3x3 "" .
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4-8

"", "" "".


3x3 ,
, , 3x3. .
, : 3x3 .
,
, , ,
.
, , , , . , . - , , , !


MACD/STOCHASTIC
:
, , - . , , CQG TQ20/20. : , TQ , ,
(Lane Stochastic). ,
. , , TQ20/20,
. .

, :
,
,
. , , MACD . .
1 , , .
1

George Lane, Investment Educators

52

, . , , , . ,
. -
, - ,
, , , . .
. "" .

(Preferred Stochastic), , ,
. .
, ,
.
:
(Lane Stochastic)
(Raw Stochastic) (Fast Stochastic)
(Slow Stochastic)
(Modified Stochastic)
(The Stochastic)
, ! :

, Trade-Em-Quick Software Inc., , " " . , , - ,


. " "?
, , , ! , , , .
( ):

, , - . ,
, : %
%D. , % ,
, . .

MACD/Stochastic

53

%, () :

5-1

%D . %D - . . ,
. , , .
,
.
:
% 5-1, (MAV),
%D. 2 , TQ20/20,
% %D.
, TQ, 5-3.

5-2

, , , .

George Lane, "Lane's Stochastics" Technical Analysis of Stocks and Commodities, May/June 1984.

54

() :
() . %D, , %,
, ,
, %D .
, ,
. - ,
("").

5-3

, ,
,
. . (MAVt) .

(MAV):5

5-4


,
. , .

P.J. Kaufman, The New Commodity Trading Systems and Methods, (New York: John Wiley & Sons, 1987).

MACD/Stochastic
55

:
% ,
( 5-1) , %
. % %D,
. , .

:
Trade-Em-Quick Software, Aspen Graphics, CIS TRADING PACKAGE TradeStation, (Stochastic).
- . , ,
, !

:
- , , . , , . , ,
"", .
- CQG, Inc., Aspen -
CIS. TradeStation , , " "
("Easy Language", "D"). MetaStock . ,
(MetaStock).
, Aspen Graphics, , ,
. ? ,
. ,
,
. CIS. "Aspen" -

56

, "Aspen" , , . " ", , .


, , , . ,
, :
1. ( , ..)
2.
3.
4. ,
,
, .
, , ,
:
, , , , . . , 8:20 ,
8:50, 8:00 , 8:30.
1/2 (8:00-8:30) 10
. 20
10 .
, "" ,
, , S&P.
S&P , 9:00 10:00 , 9:30! 10:00,
11:00 , 10:30 11:30 . ,
"" ,
, , .
. , ,
. ,
. ,
, ,
!

MACD/Stochastic

57

:
, , , . , () 140 40 .
40 , ,
,
. , 20, 40
400 . ,
. , , .
" " " " , , , , ,
, !
:
, , , . - , , .
, ,
... , . 8 1998 . : "
. ?" " !" - .
, 8 , "" "",
. , , ""
.
, : - ,
. ,
, , , $20.000,
$10.000. ?
. : , ,
: ", ?"
, .
, !

58

( ). , , , :
, ,
. "", . , "" , ,
! , , , : " , - 195,00 ".
, .
, . ,
. , (bid and ask)
. . , . "bid and asked not charted", , , , ! - D- (DLevels), , - .
, , ,
!
, . 15 ,
- . , , ,
. , , ,
""
, !
,
,
. , - FibNodes . , , , ,
. ,

, .

MACD/Stochastic

5
9


, 14-3-3, 8-3-3. , , , .
, "", "". , , , , ,
, .
, . 25 25,
. 75 75,
. . 5-1.

5-1

MACD (DEMA) :
80- .

(Dual Exponential Moving Average, DEMA) .
. , , . : -

60

DEMA . , DEMA ,
. DEMA? , DEMA?
DEMA - MACD4 (- Moving Average Convergence Divergence). (Gerald Appel) . - ,
MACD . , , .

: , - . "".

5-2

, MACD 5-2
,
5-1. , - , MACD (DEMA) ,
100.
.
MACD , ,
, ,
, DEMA5.

Gerald Appel, The Moving Average Convergence-Divergence Trading Method (New York: Signaled Corporation).

Jacob Bernstein, Short Term Trading In Futures (Probus Publishing Company, 1987).

MACD/Stochastic

61

5-3

, , . , . , ,
, ,
, : 0,213, 0,108, 0,199. "": 8,3897,17,5185, 9,0503, , , ""
. CQG, Inc., Aspen Graphics, TradeStation
CIS. , , .
" " , ,
. , .
, , - . ,
, . :
, , ,
. ,
" ". .
, , MACD ( DEMA MACD). .

62

5-4
5-5

MACD .
, , , MACD . , 8-3-3 14-3-3,

MACD/Stochastic

6
3

.
5-4 5-5, MACD
. ,
, MACD. MACD
. , ! , MACD, . ,
, 5-6, ,
, - .

5-6

MACD , .
, , , () MACD . , MACD .
, , .
. , MACD .
, ,
! ? ,
. , , , () ,
5-6, . , ,
, .

64

,
, ,
!
,
5-, 30- 60-, , , , (),
(MACD). ( )
(MACD ) ( )
(MACD ). ()
(MACD/Stochastic) , ""
. , 25 75 . MACD, .
5-7 S&P . , . ,
MACD . .
,
.
. , MACD, . , ,
,
,
. 5-7 ,
, , . , MACD, , .
. , ,
" ".

MACD/Stochastic

65

5-7

MACD /Stochastic, , ,
, , .
, 1 (, , , ) 2 ( ). 1 2. 3 (,
) . 4, , ,
. :
, , ,
. , .
.
, ,
. , , , . (
), () . , . ( ) . ,
, .
,

66

, (slippage). , , . MACD ( , ), ,
. , ,
, .
, , , !

5-8

, 5-8 (
).
, , ,
3x3. , , . , "1" "2" "".
, , , , . ( , , .
"1" "2" "", . ,
.) .

MACD/Stochastic

6
7

5-9

5-9 - , 5-8,
MACD .
MACD.
"", ,
.
.
MACD,
.
:

?
. , .
. ,
, :
!

68

: , ( ) , , ?
3. , . ,
. , , . , DMA , , . , ,
. !
, .
?
5% - 15% , , .
, , , ,
?
: , , , , ?
, , MACD. . , 8, 9, 10, 11 13.
25/75 ?
- , , . ,
, ( ) : MACD, , . 5-10 "" "". , ,
, .

MACD/Stochastic

69

5-10 &

: " ( 5-5)
, MACD
, . - " ", ?"
, , "
", . , , MACD. " " . , , , MACD. .
, MACD ,
5-10. MACD ,
, ,
. ,
,
.

:

- MAC-D/.
MACD, ,
. , . .

70

MACD/ ,
.
, MACD (DEMA): 0,213, 0,108, 0,199.
,
: 8-3-3.
,
,
. , , .
MACD,
,
. , , ,
.


9 ,

:
, , , 2, .
( ) ().
3x3.
, , 3x3 ,
, .
. , , .
.
, .
, .
, , .
- , .
, , . :
, !

72

" " - " "


6-1 (Double RePo, Double
Repenetration), .
1. 8-10
"" ; 15 - . , "" (thrust), , .
, . ""
.

6-1

73

2. , 3x3, . .
3. , ( ), , , .
4. ( ) ( ) 8-10 . .
5. ,
( , ""),
0,618 "*"
( ) . , . , ,
, "*" .
6. : , , 30- .
, , , .

1
, (, ) ( 3x3) 13 .
2
, , , 3x3, . , .
- .
3
, , .
4
: , 3x3,
.

74

5
, "*", "". ,
.
:
, 1-5, , .
, .
, , ,
. :
, , ,
. "", .
"" "" . ,
.
,
. .

75

6-1 .

6-1

76

?
, ,
, ! , , ,
.
, , ,
, , ... - ,
.
, , .
6-2. 1986 .,
!
, , ?
. , , , 3x3, , . 3x3,
MAC-D/ . ,
, ,
.
?
, .

?
, ,
.
.
?
,
"" , . , . , -


77

, - , , .
, 3x3,
, "*"?
. : , "*". ,
.
( 3x3), , .
, "*" , 3x3?
, , , .
"" " ", .
, .
. ,
. "".
?
.
. , , 30- S&P ( 4, 4-5).
, - , ?
. ,
, . ,
, . . , , , , "*".
, 3x3. , 18 , , "", ,
. . .

78

:

() .

6-2

6-2 , S&P
1986 . . S&P . -
. . , S&P .
( ) . , ,
3x3 .

7
9

, ( ) . , , . , , , . ,
"", , . 3x3 ,
.

6-3

6-3 , , 1988 .
, , : . , . !

80

6-4 , 1996 . ,
5,00 . , ?

6-4

, , , , (continuation chart),
.
, .
, 15. , .

81

( 6-5) 1993 .

6-5

82

, .

6-6

Microsoft ( 6-6) , Windows 95,


. . , ,
.
,
Microsoft .
, , ,
.

8
3

? , , .
, . , ,
"" 1990 .

6-7

6-7 , 3x3 40 .,
25x5. , ""
. 3x3 (S1 S2) , - (1 2), . ,
, , " " (Bread and Butter).
,
, ,
, "*" ( ). - (Double RePo Failure) -
, .

84

6-8 ,
(German bund).

6-8

, , . ,
, . , ,
( 6-9).

8
5

6-9

80-, , . .
, 875 .
, , ,
, "*", .
625. 280! , , -
200 . , .
, , , , . (Dow) S&P, !
0,618 ,
4000 !
0,382, 2500 !
, , , ,
6-9.

86

" ":
1. -, , 6-10.

-10

2. , "*" .
. .
3. , , , 3x3, , .

87

: , .
( )
. , . . ! 6-10
, ,
"*". , .
"" ( )
. 3x3 -
.
, 3x3.
, 8-11.
, ,
, , .
:

,
?
, .
,
(
(Confluence area)).

MACD/ 3x3, , ?
, .
, - .

88

6-11, , , .
.
?

6-11

8
9

6-12 . , . ,
25x5 .

6-12

90

" " " ":


, " " ,
, .
. , .
, D-
(D-Levels). ,
.
1. , " " 8-10
. , . :
, . ,
. "" - .

6-13

9
1

2. 3x3 () - (Fibnode) . - 3x3. , ,


. -,
, ,
( ) , , .
3. , , 0,618 "*" , ,
.
( 6-14) .

6-14

92

200
., , .
, , ,
. ! ! ! , .
, , ,
.
, Microsoft ( 6-15).
.
, , , ,
6-6, , " ".
, , .
2.

-15

9
3

6-16

, MACD ,
,
6-6.

" " MACD. , !
!

94

:
, , ,
, , ,
, . ,
1
(Robert Edwards and Magee). ,
, ,
. ,
, . , . ,
.

6-17

" " (H&S) , , . ,


, 1

Robert Edwards and John Magee, Technical Analysis of Stock Trends

9
5

, ,
. ,
, , - . ,
: ,
, 13.
. ,
.
. , ,
. , , (), .

6-18

( 6-18) . . ,
" " (- ), , , .
. , .

96

6-19

, . , , , .
,
. , . , , . , !
: , - ,
,
.

9
7

6-19

(Triangle Breakout Failure), ""


(OOPS) . - "", , .
- .
, "
".

98

" ", " ":


90- ,
,
, , . ,
. , , . . , , .

"":
- ,
. , ,
. , , . , 2 (Market Profile)
" " (rejection of price),
. , .... , , -, . , 100.000 . ,
. , , , ,
.
6-21 "" (Railroad Track).
, , . . " ", , , . "
" , , ,
. ,
, "", , . , .
"" (Railroad Track, RRT) :
. ,
. ,
, ,
. , ,
, .

J. Peter Steidlmayer and Kevin Koy, Markets & Market Logic, (The Porcupine Press, 1986)

6-21

9
9

100

6-22 ( )

6-22 , 6-21, . 6-21


, 6-22 . 621 , 6-22 - . RRT , . -.

10
1

6-23

6-23 , RRT.
, , .
, ?
,
" ", RRT;
,
. , , RRT . -
- 0,618 "*". , 0,382 "R" ().
, , .
, , ( )
, R,
. - .
- .

102

30- ( 6-24)
"", 11525. , - RRT,
,
, 11508. (recognition, R).
11514.
. - . 11508 ,
. 30-
, - . ()
11428. ( ) , , , - . , RRT, "" , "" . . , .

6-24

10
3

RRT. "" (. 2),


, "" RRT, . ,
.
, "RRT 1" - . ,
, .
"RRT 2" , ,

. 3, , .

6-25

, ,
. , . ,
, .
, 1988 .,
S&P. , - .
3

. - . .

104

,
. , ( , ). , . RRT. . , . , ,
, ! .
... ( ) ! ,
, - . ,
, , . ,
,
- -. RRTI
( 6-26).
RRT, .

6-26

105

"":
(Look-alikes) - " " "- " . . ,
. , . , "" , "" "", "" . , ,
, .
- "". , , , . , . . , , .
"":

. ,
. . 7, 8 9.
- , , , .
, "" ,
. . , ,
("" "" - , 13) .

"-":
"" , , - . "" (Squat). ""?
(Bill Williams)4, ""
, , . ,
. "" "" ("churning").
4

Bill Williams, Profitunity Trading Group, 2300 Pilgrim Estates Dr., Texas City, TX 77590.
: " ", "", , 2000).

106

, ( 60.000
80.000 ) . -
, , ""
. , , , , . , "", ( ) , . , "",
. "", "-" .
"-" , - . , , . MACD . - , ,
"" , .
SQUAT = () MFI, .
MFI = rb/v
:
rb -
v -
"" , . . 627.


107

6-27

108

6-28 ( ) . . , 8 9, "". -
.

6-28

"-":
, "" (squatiness) "". "",
: "" =
30% () MFI, . (Larry Ehrhart), WINdoTRADEr5,
. , "" , , , , 30% , . , "" - , - 30-.
RRT, , , .
5

Lany Ehrhart, 3700 North Lake Shore Drive, Suite 7-09. Chicago, IL 60613, (312) 871-4687, (312)789-7434 Fax.

109

"",
, , 1/2 1/3 . ,
. ,
.
"" "" - , "" -, . () "" . " "
(Minesweeper ) " " ( 13).
:
?
, ,
. "" .
?
.
. ?
, ,
. ,
.

?
. . ,
, .
, , . , . . - , .



-
:
(Overbought, OB) (Oversold, OS) , .
, . ,
. , . - , : , .
: " , , ". , .
: , , ... , . " " ,
, ,
. - 1 (ADX - Average Directional Movement
Index) , ? , , . , . ?
1

J. Welles Wilder Jr., New Concepts in Technical Trading Systems (Trend Research, 1978), hereafter cited parenthetically in the
text as Wilder, New Concepts.

112

" , () ".
, , , .
, . ,
.
, , ,
/.

:
- ,
. , 75 , 25 - . ,
( ),
(Stochastic Pop Indicator)2.
50% , 75/25%!
( 7-1) , , 25%, . , ( ) 14- ,
, 5.
, (75%/25%) .
, ,
.

Jake Bernstein, Short Term Trading in Commodity Futures, (Probus Publishing Company, 1987), hereafter cited parenthetically
in the text as Bernstein, Short Term Trading.

11
3

7-1

MACD:
MACD (-
- Moving Average Convergence Divergence) - .
5, , /. (Bernstein, Short Term Trading) MACD . , , .

(RSI):
RSI - , . OB/OS
, MACD, (Wilder, New Concepts) .
, , - . RSI, ,
+/- 100, . 95 , ( ) 4,9999 .

114

RSI 96,50 , 7-2,


? , RSI 93,78,
(Detrended Oscillator) 9,41
16,19. . ,
( 9,41). , RSI , (89,00).
. , ?

7-2

, , , , , , , S&P!
RSI.
(CCI):
, (Commodity Channel Index, CCI). CCI,
.
3 ,
/3

Donald Lambert, "Commodity Channel Index: Tool for Trading Cyclic Trends", Technical Analysis of Stocks & Commodities
magazine, July/August 1983, page 120-122.

115

. CCI , +/-100, . , - ( ). CCI , ,


.
:
- . ,
.
, ; "". , .
:
= .
, 7-5.
, , - . , . 80-
8088- ,
.
, DMA.
. , .
(, , , , ,
, ..), ,
:
1. () .

2. () .
7- , . , , 1, .

116

, ,
, ,
15 !

:
,
.
1:
70, 80, 90, 100% /, .
1:
, , / ... , /.
. OB/OS
, , 80% . -, . , OB/OS , . OB/OS, .
/ - , . ,
7-3, 96,85, 101,00 100,70, , 98,00.

11
7

7-3

"" ,
90% .
"". . , ,
. , .
, ,
. ,
, 88 (90% 98).
. , - (Oscillator Predictor), "G". -,
, ,
, . ( Aspen Graphics TradeStation)
. , . ,
, : " !"

118

. , ,
(runaway market). , ,
, , , , ! , ,
.
. -
, "" , .
, , 7-3, (draw
downs) .
- .
, . !
(Logical Profit
Objectives, LPO), .
, , ,
. , . , , LPO ,
. - , LPO .
1 . , .
, (COP's) , . , .
, . . .
70% - 90%
, .
" - ", . , . , , - . ,
, /OS . , , , , , , , .

119

, , , .
. , - 9,10 11.
2:
.
, , . , ,
, .

, , / .
65% /,
. , , , "".
, , . (Oscillator Set Up menu), ( ) . ... ,
,
, - . 4

Oscillator Predictor,
, TIMESAVER,
CIS.

120

7-4

7-4 ,
, , ,
. 12- , , , . .
. () , , , ,
() OB/OS. , . ,
. , , ,
.

121

:
, (volatility
breakout), , , . ? !
? !
? , . , .
, . 30% 40% . .
, .
3:
OB/OS .
, , , , 32-
50 S&P. .
" ", , - .
, : "
", ,
. , , , (. 7-5). - , , . ,
, . , , , , .

122

7-5

3, . , , , . .
, , , . ,
" " - .
. () , 3.
, -, . 3 , .
. ,
" "
. , .
, , . , . , , 70%.

123

6 "". / . 4. , . ,
.

7-6

,
. , 8-11, . 7-6, ,
. "". ,
() , 0,618 "" "". ,
"". ,
,
.

124

:
"" .
. , , , ,
? , , , , . , . , - , , ,
. ,
, , 9 10.
, . ,
.
, , , .
, ""
,
. , , (safe stop)
, . (money stop). ,
.
,
.
, .
,
, - , .
, . 7-2
. -,
, . ,
,
, , - .

125

5:

.
. . , , .
7-7, .

7-7

, 1980 ., , , . .
, . ,
, "
" . , ,
.

126

, ; , , . , ,
47,71 .
, . .
1 2 . ,
, . - . , , . -,
, (, ), . ,
, . , , , ,
9,10,11 13 . , , (blowoffs),
, , .
, , , /
-. , /.
- - , . .
, , ,
. .
, !

127

-:
80- , , , , . . , " ", , . , -, .
. ,
- ! :
" , , DMA? " , /,
, ,
, /OS .
, .
, , ,
CIS.
, .
, (
) , .
, .
- ,
.
8-13.
"G" , - .

128

, , , ( 3), , :

1.
. "" " ".
2.
. .

.
3.
.
, .
,
.
4. /
.
, .

:
, , , , ,
.
5. ( )
, ,
.
.
6. ( )

.

- . , , ,
. .
, 1983 S&P,
! ,
. .

,
:
, . , , , , , , ,
. ,
.

132

, . , , . .
, . - ,
" ". , , , .
: .
,
: .

:

(Guilielmo Bonacci) 1170 . "figlio" "", "figlio Bonacci", Fibonacci (). (Signior Leonardo Bonacci) -
- ,
.

133

. , , . , , , , .
(Golden Mean), (Golden Ratio) 1,618 1 (
0,618 1),
, . "".
(Pacioli) " ". (Kelper) " ". - - " ".
, . ,
: " ".

:
, . . ,
. , : 1,
1 , 2 , 3 , 5 , 8 , 13,21 . ,
, 1,1.
. , 13 21,
0,619, 21 13, 1,615.
8 21, 0,381. , 21 8 = 2,625.
, . , . .
, , . , 5 100. .
5, 100, 105, 205, 310, 515, 825, 1340, 2165
1340 2165 = 0,6189 2165
1340 = 1,616

134

, - "" ,
, . , - XIII
, .
, ,
, . ,
, , S&P...

-!!!
,
.
, ,
1. , , . ,
. , .
, , .

,
.
1

, ,
.

135

:
.
:
$ .
$
, " ."
:

( )
(Fibonacci Ovals)
(Fibonacci Arcs)
(Fibonacci Spirals)
(Fibonacci-inspired Bands)
(Fibonacci-inspired Trend lines)
, : 0,09, 0,146,
0,236, 0,50, 1,382, 2,618 ..
, , . . , : , , . , , , .

136


0,382 0,618:

8-1

8-1 "" "".


: ( "" "") 0,382 .
() .
, , , .
0,382 ,
0,618 . ?

137

, , (),
.
, ,
, .

8-2

8-2 "" "".


.
0,382 0,618
.

138

, .
-
F3 = - 0,382 (-)
F5 = - 0,618 (-)
F3 - 3/8 - 0,382. F5
- 5/8 - 0,618.

(Gann), 1/8 2.
- ,
. ( ,
) -. ,
, , .
: - ,
,
... ? !

, , :
- 3/8 (-) 5/8 (-) -.

13
9


. ( ,
) (Market Swing). . 8-3.

8-3

-
( ), , ,
. .

140


0,618, 1,0 1,618:
, (Expansion
Analysis), ( ) , ,
, , (Logical Price (profit) Objectives).
(Objective Points, OP). "--" . ,
8-4. , ""
"-", .

8-4

141

.
"" "-". , .

= - +

= 0,618 ( - ) +

= 1,618 ( - ) +

,
, ,
"", "". . "" . ,
, "". - , .
, , .
. ,
, . , "-" , , -.
"". "-",
"-", ,
. ""
(Objective Point), "COP" - (Contracted Objective Point),
, "" - (Expanded Objective Point), . , "" , "", . "" .
,
.
,
. ,
" " , ,
.

142

?
, , .
. ,
.
1989 . , . , ,
.

7- , 7x5 25x5 ,
7 25 . ?
, ! 7 25
. . , !

?
,
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276

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FibNodes .
5. , DOS
FibNodes, (Exit) DOS.

277

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280

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TRADESTATION

TradeStation Stochastic, 4.0, 18. :

Stochastic Fast
Stochastic Slow
Stochastic Fast Custom
Stochastic Slow Custom

:
FastK
FastD
SlowK
SlowD
FastKCustom
FastDCustom
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282

, FastK (RAW), , , , , . ,
PowerEditor TradeStaton, , ,
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John Murphy, Technical Analysis of the Futures Market (New York: New York Institute of Finance, 1986).

Perry Kaufman, The New Commodity Trading Systems and Methods (New York: John Wiley & Sons, 1987)

283

284

J.K. Hutson, "Filter Price Data: Moving Averages vs. Exponential Moving Averages," Technical Analysis of Stocks &
Commodities magazine, May/June 1984.

285

286

FibNodes:

F
FibNodes , . , . , . , , ,
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FibNodes:
FibNodes .
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287

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288

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32-: ,
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www.fibtrader.com emailcoast@fibtrader.com 941 346-3801 941 346-3901.
www.analitika.ru email info@analitika.ru (095) 152-1332.

289

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J
COAST INVESTMENT SOFTWARE, INC.

6907 Midnight Pass, Sarasota, FL 34242 941 346-3801 Fax 941 346-3901 email coast@fibtrader.com www.fibtrader.com
:

Joe DiNapoli's, "FIBONACCI, MONEY MANAGEMENT, AND TREND ANALYSIS, in


home trading course" ( , " ,
"). 90 -, 100- , , - , , . 2- ,
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15

297

Gerald Appel The Moving Average Convergence-Divergence Trading Method (Signalert


Corp., 150 Great Neck Road, Suite 301, Great Neck, New York 11021)
Jacob Bernstein, Short Term Trading in Commodity Futures, (Probus Publishing
Company, 1987, ISBN 0-917253-66-3),(MBH Commodities, 60 Revere Dr., #888,
Northbrook, EL 60062, 800 678-5253)
Robert Edwards and John Magee, Technical Analysis of Stock Trends
Lany Ehrhart, 3700 North Lake Shore Drive, Suite 7-09, Chicago, IL 60613, 312 8714687, 312 789-7434 (Volume Studies)
J.K. Hutson, "Filter Price Data: Moving Averages vs. Exponential Moving Averages"
Technical Analysis of Stocks & Commodities magazine, May/June 1984.
George Lane. Investment Educators, 719 S. Fourth Street, Watseka, IL 60970 800 9629836, (815) 432-4334 (Stochastics)
John Murphy, Technical Analysis of the Futures Markets, (New York Institute of Finance,
New York 1986)
Markets & Market Logic by Peter Steidlmayer and Kevin Koy, (The Porcupine Press,
1986, ISBN 0-941275-00-0, 401 S. LaSalle St., Suite 1101, Chicago, IL 60605)
J. Welles Wilder Jr., New Concepts in Technical Trading Systems (Trend Research, 1978),
Bill Williams, Ph.D., C.T.A., Profitunity Trading Group, Ltd. 2300 Pilgrim Estates Dr.,
Texas City, TX 77590-3750 409 945-8880, Fax 409 945-8887, e-mail ptg@phoenix.net,
www.profitunity.com (Judgmental Trading)

298

:
, . , ,
. , , ,
. , , . ,
. , ,
. ,
, .
.
Thomas Aspray, Boardwatch, 117 W 15th Ave, P.O. Box 2141, Spokane, WA 99210, 509 838-0434,
Fax 509 747-7801
Bill Bay, 1065 US 1 North, Ormond Beach, Fl 32174 (Volume Studies)
Thomas A. Bierovic, Synergy Futures, 519 Riva Court, Wheaton, IL 60187, 630 682-3768,
Fax 630 682-3915
John Bollinger, Bellinger Capital Management, Inc., P.O. Box 3358, Manhattan Beach, CA 90266,
310 798-8855, Fax 310 798-8858
Walter Bressert, P.O. Box 8268, 9440 Doubloon Drive, Vero Beach, FL 32963, 407 388-3330,
Fax 407 388-3389 (Time Cycles)
Constance M. Brown, Aerodynamic Trading (New Classics Library, 1995, ISBN 0-932750-42-7, P.O.
Box 1618, Gainesville, GA 30503) (Aerodynamic Investments Inc., 770 533-9161, Fax 770 5361337, e-mail CBspz&ibm.net, www.aeroinvest.com)
Bob Buran, Bob Buran Investment Vision, 8175 S Virginia Street, S850-359, Reno, NV 89511, 702
853-8667
Andrew E. Cardwell, Cardwell Financial Group, Inc., P.O. Box 1369, Woodstock, GA 30188
(RSI, Divergence Techniques)
Michael Chalik, Universal Technical Systems, 6503 N. Military Trail, Suite 905, Boca Raton, FL
33496, 800 315-3893, Fax 561 989-9131, e-mail wetradeall@aol.com, www.tradenitures.com
(Non-judgmental Trading)
Laurence A. Connors and Linda Bradford Raschke Street Smarts (M. Gordon Publishing Group,
Malibu, CA, 1995, ISBN 0-9650461-0-9), www.mrci.com/lbr/
Michael Gur Dillon, Symmetry Wave Theory, 1705 14th St., Suite 277, Boulder, CO 80302, 303 4494601 -(Non-judgmental Trading)
Edward Dobson, Understanding Fibonacci Numbers, Traders Press, Inc. P.O. Box 6206, Greenville,
SC 29606, 800 927-8222, Fax(803) 298-0221

15

299

Mark Douglas, Trading Behavior Dynamics, 195 N. Harbor Drive, Suite 1603, Chicago, IL 60601
312 938-1441, Fax 312 856-2184 .(Psychology)
Dr. Alexander Elder, The Russian Exchange, 157 West 57th Street, Suite 1103, New York, NY
10019, 212 962-6894, 718 639-8889
Peter Eliades, cyclese@earthlink.net (Cycles)
Tucker J. Emmett, Fibonacci Cycles and Commodity Price Behavior (Tucker Emmett, Stotler &
Company, 30 South Wacker Drive, Chicago, IL 60606, 312 930-1450)
Rober Fischer, Fibonacci Applications and Strategies for Traders, (John Wiley & Sons, Inc. 1993,
ISBN 0-471-58520-3), The Golden Section Compass
Nelson Freeburg, Formula Research, 4745 Poplar Ave., Suite 307, Memphis, TN 38117, 901
767-1956, 800 720-1080, Fax 901 458-0066 (Non-judgmental Trading)
William R. Gallacher, Winner Take All (Probus Publishing Company, 1994, ISBN 1-55738-533-5)
Joseph and Francis Gies, Leonard of Pisa and the Mathematics of the Middle Ages.
Sunny Harris, Trading 101 - How to Trade Like a Pro (John Wiley & Sons, 1996)
Sunny Harris & Assoc., Inc., 2075 Corte del Nogal, Suite C, Carlsbad, CA 92009-1414,
888 68-Sunny, 760 930-1050, Fax 760 930-1055, www.moneymentor.com
Cynthia Kase, Kase & Co., 1000 Eubank NE, Suite.C, Albuquerque, NM 87112, 505 237-1600
P.J. Kaufman, The New Commodity Trading Systems & Methods (John Wiley & Sons, 1987),
Maple Hill Farm, P.O. Box 7, Scotch Hollow Rd., Wells River, VT 05081, 802 429-2121
Robert Krausz & Jeanne Long, Fibonacci Trader Corp., 757 SE 17th Street, Suite 272,
Fort Lauderdale, FL 33316, 512 842-1166, Fax 954 566-2427, e-mail fibbo@safari.net
Joe Krutsinger, Robbins Trading Company, Presidents Plaza, 7th Floor, South Tower,
8700 W. Bryn Mawr, Chicago, IL 60631-3507, 312 714-9000.
Charles Le Beau & David W. Lucas Technical Traders Guide To Computer Analysis of the Futures
Markets (Business One Irwin, Illinois, 1992)
Lou Mendelsohn, 25941 Apple Blossom Lane, Wesley Chapel, FL 33544, 800 732-5407,
813 973-0496, Fax 813 973-2700, lm@profittaker,com
S. Edward Moore, Rhythm of the Markets, 8000 River Road, Suite 11C, N.Bergen, NJ 07047,
800 686-0833, 201 861-0993, Fax 201 295-8664, rhythmofthemarkets.com
Glenn Neely, Elliott Wave Institute, 1278 Glenneyre, Laguna Beach, CA 92651, 800 636-9283, Fax
714 493-9149
Larry Pesavento, 4625 E. Camino Rosa, Tucson, AZ 85718, 520 529-0469, Fax 520 529-0491,
www.tradingtutor.com, (Fibonacci Analysis)
Charles Plank, Pi Inc., 23130 Hartland Street, Canoga Park, CA 91307 (Fibonacci Analysis)

300

Robert Prechter, New Classics Library, P.O. Box 1618, Gainesville, GA 30503, 405 536-0309
(Elliott Wave)
Ted Tesser, Waterside Financial Services, 1035 Spanish River Road, #106, Boca Raton, FL 33492,
407 989-0642 (Tax Consulting for Traders)
Teweles, Harlow, & Stone, The Commodity Futures Game, (McGraw-Hill)
Dr. Van Tharp, IITM Inc. 8308 Belgium Street, Raleigh, NC 27606, 919 233-8855,
Fax 919 362-6020 (Psychology)
Ralph Vince, The New Money Management (John Wiley & Sons, 1995)
www.technalink.com/rv.shtml (Money and Portfolio Management)
Larry Williams, Commodity Timing, 140 Marine View, Suite 204, Solana Beach, CA 92075, 619
756-0421 (Non-judgmental Trading)

Aspen Research Group, Ltd.


710 Cooper Avenue, Suite 300
P.O. Box 1370
Glenwood Springs, CO 81602
800359-1121
Neal Hughes 11121NE
97th Street Kirkland,
WA 98033 4258225210 neal@halcyon.
com Internet Services
Elyce Picciotti, Ltd.
613 North St. Patrick Street
New Orleans, LA 70119
504 488-3651 Fax 504 486-6187
e-mail elyce@bellsouth.net
Steven E. Roehl
326 Pontevedra Lane
Niceville, FL 32578
850 729-7522
Fax 850 729-2441
e-mail roehl@cybertron.com

15


301


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