Probability Notes

5 Steps for Probability Experiment:

1. Create a simulation to model real context.
2. List possible outcomes.
3. Is it possible to describe theoretical probability? If
possible, use to estimate chance.
4. Use experimental probability to develop a theoretical
probability.
5. Describe chance.
2 Probability Essential Understandings:
Probability is a measure of the chance that a given
event will occur along a continuum from impossible (0)
to certain (1).
Theoretical and experimental probability can be used
to estimate the probability of an event actually
occurring but it may not be the same because chance
has no memory.
Probability Vocabulary:
chance
likelihood
impossible
possible
certain
likely
unlikely
equally likely
fractions and percentages that connect to probability
words
outcomes (sample space)
theoretical versus experimental probability
simulation

Use Practice/Process Learning Progressions to go deeper

at each grade level:
Mathematical Practices/Processes:
Levels of Justification
Development of Problem Solving Strategies
Levels of Representation
Development of Word Knowledge

Create a simulation
to model real
context.

List possible
outcomes.

Is it possible to
describe theoretical
probability? If
possible, use to
estimate chance.

Use experimental
probability to
develop a theoretical
probability.

Describe chance.