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DOUBLE ISSUE

DEC. 29, 2014 / JAN. 5, 2015

2015: THE YEAR AHEAD

SCOTT
KELLY

WILL
SPEND
ONE YEAR
IN SPACE
HIS IDENTICAL
TWIN WILL
STAY ON
EARTH
WHILE
NASA
STUDIES
THEM
BOTH

P32

PLUS

BUSH VS.
CLINTON
REDUX
P62

WHAT TO
FEAR NOW

P47

THE PROBLEM
WITH POT CANDY
P72

AMY SCHUMERS
WORLD
P94

JOEL STEINS
PREDICTIONS
P114

time.com

BRIEF SUMMARY OF MEDICATION GUIDE


Prolia (PR-lee-a) (denosumab) Injection
Read the Medication Guide that comes with Prolia before you start taking it and each time you get a
refill. There may be new information. The Medication Guide does not take the place of talking with
your doctor about your medical condition or treatment. Talk to your doctor if you have any questions
about Prolia.
What is the most important information I should know about Prolia?
If you receive Prolia, you should not receive XGEVA. Prolia contains the same medicine as
Xgeva (denosumab).
Prolia can cause serious side effects including:
Serious allergic reactions.
Serious allergic reactions have happened in people who take Prolia. Call your doctor or go to your
nearest emergency room right away if you have any symptoms of a serious allergic reaction.
Symptoms of a serious allergic reaction may include:
low blood pressure (hypotension)
trouble breathing
throat tightness
swelling of your face, lips, or tongue
rash
itching
hives
Low calcium levels in your blood (hypocalcemia).
Prolia may lower the calcium levels in your blood. If you have low blood calcium before you start
receiving Prolia, it may get worse during treatment. Your low blood calcium must be treated before
you receive Prolia. Most people with low blood calcium levels do not have symptoms, but some
people may have symptoms. Call your doctor right away if you have symptoms of low blood
calcium such as:
Spasms, twitches, or cramps in your muscles
Numbness or tingling in your fingers, toes, or around your mouth
Your doctor may prescribe calcium and vitamin D to help prevent low calcium levels in your blood
while you take Prolia. Take calcium and vitamin D as your doctor tells you to.
Severe jaw bone problems (osteonecrosis).
Severe jaw bone problems may happen when you take Prolia. Your doctor should examine your
mouth before you start Prolia. Your doctor may tell you to see your dentist before you start Prolia. It
is important for you to practice good mouth care during treatment with Prolia. Ask your doctor or
dentist about good mouth care if you have any questions.
Unusual thigh bone fractures.
Some people have developed unusual fractures in their thigh bone. Symptoms of a fracture include
new or unusual pain in your hip, groin, or thigh.
Serious infections.
Serious infections in your skin, lower stomach area (abdomen), bladder, or ear may happen if you
take Prolia. Inflammation of the inner lining of the heart (endocarditis) due to an infection also may
happen more often in people who take Prolia. You may need to go to the hospital for treatment if
you develop an infection.
Prolia is a medicine that may affect the ability of your body to fight infections. People who have
weakened immune system or take medicines that affect the immune system may have an
increased risk for developing serious infections.
Call your doctor right away if you have any of the following symptoms of infection:
Fever or chills
Skin that looks red or swollen and is hot or tender to touch
Fever, shortness of breath, cough that will not go away
Severe abdominal pain
Frequent or urgent need to urinate or burning feeling when you urinate
Skin problems.
Skin problems such as inflammation of your skin (dermatitis), rash, and eczema may happen if you
take Prolia. Call your doctor if you have any of the following symptoms of skin problems that do not
go away or get worse:
Redness
Itching
Small bumps or patches (rash)
Your skin is dry or feels like leather
Blisters that ooze or become crusty
Skin peeling
Bone, joint, or muscle pain.
Some people who take Prolia develop severe bone, joint, or muscle pain.
Call your doctor right away if you have any of these side effects.
What is Prolia?
Prolia is a prescription medicine used to:
Treat osteoporosis (thinning and weakening of bone) in women after menopause
(change of life) who:
- are at high risk for fracture (broken bone).
- cannot use another osteoporosis medicine or other osteoporosis medicines did not work well.
It is not known if Prolia is safe and effective in children.

Who should not take Prolia?


Do not take Prolia if you:
have been told by your doctor that your blood calcium level is too low.
are pregnant or plan to become pregnant.
are allergic to denosumab or any of the ingredients in Prolia. See the end of this leaflet for a
complete list of ingredients in Prolia.
What should I tell my doctor before taking Prolia?
Before taking Prolia, tell your doctor if you:
Are taking a medicine called Xgeva (denosumab). Xgeva contains the same medicine as Prolia.
Have low blood calcium.
Cannot take daily calcium and vitamin D.
Had parathyroid or thyroid surgery (glands located in your neck).
Have been told you have trouble absorbing minerals in your stomach or intestines
(malabsorption syndrome).
Have kidney problems or are on kidney dialysis.
Plan to have dental surgery or teeth removed.
Are pregnant or plan to become pregnant. Prolia may harm your unborn baby. Tell your doctor right
away if you become pregnant while taking Prolia.
Pregnancy Surveillance Program: Prolia is not intended for use in pregnant women. If you
become pregnant while taking Prolia, talk to your doctor about enrolling in Amgens Pregnancy
Surveillance Program or call 1-800-772-6436 (1-800-77-AMGEN). The purpose of this program
is to collect information about women who have become pregnant while taking Prolia.
Are breastfeeding or plan to breastfeed. It is not known if Prolia passes into your breast milk. You
and your doctor should decide if you will take Prolia or breastfeed. You should not do both.
Tell your doctor about all the medicines you take, including prescription and nonprescription
drugs, vitamins, and herbal supplements.
Know the medicines you take. Keep a list of medicines with you to show to your doctor or pharmacist
when you get a new medicine.
How will I receive Prolia?
Prolia is an injection that will be given to you by a healthcare professional. Prolia is injected under
your skin (subcutaneous).
You will receive Prolia 1 time every 6 months.
You should take calcium and vitamin D as your doctor tells you to while you receive Prolia.
If you miss a dose of Prolia, you should receive your injection as soon as you can.
Take good care of your teeth and gums while you receive Prolia. Brush and floss your
teeth regularly.
Tell your dentist that you are receiving Prolia before you have dental work.
What are the possible side effects of Prolia?
Prolia may cause serious side effects.
See What is the most important information I should know about Prolia?
It is not known if the use of Prolia over a long period of time may cause slow healing of
broken bones.
The most common side effects of Prolia in women who are being treated for osteoporosis after
menopause are:
back pain
pain in your arms and legs
high cholesterol
muscle pain
bladder infection
Tell your doctor if you have any side effect that bothers you or that does not go away.
These are not all the possible side effects of Prolia. For more information, ask your doctor
or pharmacist.
Call your doctor for medical advice about side effects. You may report side effects to
FDA at 1-800-FDA-1088.
How should I store Prolia if I need to pick it up from a pharmacy?
Keep Prolia in a refrigerator at 36F to 46F (2C to 8C) in the original carton.
Do not freeze Prolia.
When you remove Prolia from the refrigerator, Prolia must be kept at room temperature
[up to 77F (25C)] in the original carton and must be used within 14 days.
Do not keep Prolia at temperatures above 77F (25C). Warm temperatures will affect how
Prolia works.
Do not shake Prolia.
Keep Prolia in the original carton to protect from light.
Keep Prolia and all medicines out of reach of children.
General information about Prolia
Do not give Prolia to other people even if they have the same symptoms that you have. It may
harm them.
The Medication Guide summarizes the most important information about Prolia. If you would like
more information, talk with your doctor. You can ask your doctor or pharmacist for information about
Prolia that is written for health professionals.
For more information, go to www.Prolia.com or call Amgen at 1-800-772-6436.
What are the ingredients in Prolia?
Active ingredient: denosumab
Inactive ingredients: sorbitol, acetate, polysorbate 20 (prefilled syringe only), Water for Injection
(USP), and sodium hydroxide
2014 Amgen Inc. All rights reserved. 77381-R2-V3

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vol. 184, no. 2627 | 2014

6  Editors Desk
8  Conversation
BRIEFING

11  Verbatim
12  World

The U.S. and


Cuba resume full
diplomatic relations
18  Nation

THE YEAR AHEAD

A former interrogator
defends the CIA
20  Health

How to make a New


Years resolution stick
24  Milestones

The creator of the


baseball card dies
26  Tech

The Sony hack and


corporate security
COMMENTARY

27  Viewpoint

Lev Grossman on the


Sony hack fallout
Ray Kurzweil on the
benevolence of AI

DISCOVERY

30  In the Arena

Joe Kleins annual


Teddy awards
112  History

2015s anniversaries
114  The Awesome
Column

Joel Steins startupbased 2015 predictions

32

SPACE

Twins Scott and Mark Kelly are


helping NASA unlock the secrets
of long-term space travel

42

SCIENCE & MEDICINE

New drugs and treatments, highly


anticipated gadgets and more

44

TECHNOLOGY

The future of retail, with mobile


payments and smart mirrors

POWER
62

ELECTIONS

Clinton vs. Bush redux as Hillary


and Jeb prepare for 2016

72

CIVIL RIGHTS

Whats beyond the altar for LGBT


rights; body cams for police

74

ECONOMY

Ian Bremmer on why the U.S.s


economic clout doesnt translate
into political inuence abroad

CULTURE
94

102

48

HEALTH CARE

A news quiz for the


new year

Replacing fee-for-service medicine


with monthly fees for doctors

on the cover:
Photograph by Marco
Grob for Time

PLUS : THE L ARGEST DESALINATION


PL ANT; VIRTUAL-RE ALIT Y HE ADSE TS ;
WORLDWIDE WEIRD WE ATHER ; THE
FE AR INDE X

78

GEOPOLITICS

General Martin Dempsey must


weigh whether U.S. ground troops
should return to Iraq to ght ISIS
PLUS : LOW-COST DRONES ; NE XT-GEN
ROYALT Y; THE SUPREME COURTS 2015
DOCKE T; POT CANDY

TELEVISION

Larry Wilmore prepares to replace


Colbert; Lee Daniels Empire

104

FILM

A guide to the nerd-iverse, charting


all the superheroes and sequels

106
116  10 Questions

COMEDY

Amy Schumer is thriving among


the guys guys

FOOD & TRAVEL

Trending edibles, including jerky


and mead; timely destinations

108

SPORTS

Soccer star Abby Wambach leads


the U.S.s quest for the World Cup
PLUS : FIFTY SHADES ONSCREEN

TIME (ISSN 0040-781X) is published weekly, except for two issues combined for one week in January, May, July, August, September and December, by Time Inc. Principal Ofce: Time & Life Building, Rockefeller Center, New York, NY 10020-1393.
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Tampa, FL 33662-2120, or send us an email at privacy@time.customersvc.com. Printed in the U.S.

time December 29, 2014January 5, 2015

K E L LY B R O T H E R S : M A R C O G R O B F O R T I M E ; C L I N T O N : B R O O K S K R A F T C O R B I S F O R T I M E ; W A M B A C H : C H R I S H O R N B E C K E R F O R T I M E

28  Viewpoint

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Editors Desk
The Journey Ahead
we dont often face fashion
challenges at our cover shoots, but
this one was an exception. For starters,
we are featuring what might be the
most expensive suit onor offthe
planet at more than $12 million. And it
weighs more than the person wearing it. But then the
suit is designed for the International Space Station,
where it weighs nothing.
Time has been in the lives and living rooms of
Americas astronauts since the days of the Mercury program more than half a century ago. Our
Year Ahead special issue seemed to be just the opportunity to bring that access and experience to bear
again, because of all the challenges that await us in
2015, Scott Kelly faces the most extraordinary one. In
an effort to understand the impact of long-term space
travel on the human body, Scott will spend a year in
orbit while scientists monitor his twin brother Mark,
a former astronaut, on Earth. The Kelly brothers
offer NASA the chance to run the perfect controlled
experimentcomparing two genetically identical
bodies in two very different environments, observes
Jeff Kluger, who wrote our story.

Its good news for astronaut Scott Kelly, whose yearlong mission on the International Space Station will start on March 28 (see
page 32), that stuff weighs less in space. At NASAs Johnson Space Center
in Houston for TIMEs Dec. 2 cover shoot, Kelly (far left, with twin brother and
former astronaut Mark Kelly and photographers Shaul Schwarz and Marco
Grob) required multiple assistants to wriggle into his 250-lb., multipart suit
the top of which is held in place by a giant steel stander. Harry Houdini would
have been good at this, he quipped, after nally popping his head through.

NOW ON
TIME.COM

How smart are


Americas best collegefootball players?
As the playoffs loom,
New America, the
public-policy group,
reordered the countrys
top 25 teams
according to academic
performance. Here, a
preview of the ranking
available at time.com/
football:
1. TCU Horned Frogs
2. UCLA Bruins
3. Alabama Crimson
Tide

Nancy Gibbs, editor

Write to us
Send an email:
letters@time.com.
Please do not send
attachments

Send a letter: TIME Magazine Letters, Time &


Life Building, New York, NY 10020. Letters
should include the writers full name, address
and home telephone and may be edited for
purposes of clarity and space

NOW ON LIGHTBOX Its ofcial: Times 2014


Instagram Photographer of the Year is Matt Black,
whose gritty black-and-white images chart the
physical terrain of poverty in his native Central
Valley, California, like this one of crop-duster
markers in Corcoran. For more on Blacks work,
go to lightbox.time.com.

Customer Service and Change of Address For 24/7 service, please use our website:
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syndication requests, email syndication@timeinc.com or call 1-212-522-5868

Please recycle
this magazine and
remove inserts or
samples before
recycling

time December 29, 2014January 5, 2015

B E H I N D T H E C O V E R : J O N AT H A N W O O D S F O R T I M E ; L I G H T B O X : M AT T B L A C K ; U C L A : A P

time will be following their adventures


throughout the yearup in space but also back at
mission controlin print, online and in a video series. We are entering a new age of exploration, driven
by public and private enterprise, with a leap to Mars
not only possible but probable. While its common
to think of America as in decline, as stagnant, argues
assistant managing editor Matt Vella, who oversaw
this issue, the truth is, the Kelly mission is asking
questions weve never had the ambition to. This is
happening across the world in science, medicine, politics and energy. In each case, power devolves upon
those who set out for new frontiers.

BEHIND THE COVER

When making by hand


means making a mess,
your hands could use a hand.
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Touch it on. Touch it off. With Delta Touch 2O Technology, simply tap anywhere on the
spout or handle of the faucet to start and stop the ow of water. Learn more about these
innovative faucets for your kitchen and bathroom at deltafaucet.com/touch.

Conversation
What You Said About ...

virus spreads devastation so fast that there is only


one way to stop it: getting down to zero cases. And
in order to do that, said Tim Shenk, spokesman for
Doctors Without Borders/Mdecins Sans Frontires
(MSF), the urgent focus must be on the substantial

THE EBOLA FIGHTERS

Times 2014 choice for Person of the Year generated an unprecedented volume of responses. On
Twitter, where the announcement was retweeted
more than 10,000 times, UNICEF and Melinda
Gates were among those who shared the story,
alongside author John Green and Senator Rand
Paul. On CNBC, where editor Nancy Gibbs discussed how the aid workers were especially
heroic in light of their personal risks and the
disorganization of ofcial agencies, an emotional
anchor, Joe Kernen, declared them different
from most human beings, adding, Youve got
the right choice here. President Obama weighed

SETTING
THE RECORD
STRAIGHT

to the evolving situation and the constant improvement of patient care. For those reasons and more,
Jack Chow, a former assistant director of the World
Health Organization, suggested that Time could
have featured Ebola itself as the Person of the Year:
It is the provocateur of the whole tragedy ... Lets
hope next year will see the end of the epidemic.
As MSF nurses assistant Salome Karwah (second
from left, above) ghts to make that wish a reality,
she may well draw inspiration from the hundreds
of other workers doing the same. The moment after
she heard she and the other Ebola ghters were
chosen as Times Person of the Year, she said,
was the rst time she had smiled in a long time.
THE FERGUSON PROTESTERS

Reactions to Times runner-up, the Ferguson


protesters, were mixed. The story, wrote Al
Oussoren of Hanover, Pa., was one-sided and
made no mention of the facts behind the
crime. Marly Ortega, the mother of a San
Francisco police ofcer, wanted people to
know that [my son] is an outstanding human
being as he and other ofcers are now being
judged by demonstrators and rioters. Mean-

while, Daily Kos, among others, lauded Times


strong acknowledgment of [the protesters] tenacity, courage and persistence in making Michael
Browns death a national issue.

Because of an editing error, Dr. Tom Friedens comments in The Ones Who Answered the Call (Dec. 2229) misstated the month
that the CDC Emergency Operations Center was activated in response to Ebola. It was July. In Time for Thanks (Dec. 18), we
transposed the names of Jodi Picoults son and his anc. Her son is Kyle; his anc is Kevin.

time December 29, 2014January 5, 2015

B R O W N : I N S TA G R A M U S E R @ C A R I Y E L L

in as well, saying in a Dec. 12 meeting on Ebola at


the White House that he was very pleased to see
Time magazine identify those health workers on
the front lines of ghting Ebola as Persons of the
Year. They are truly heroes, noted philanthropist Paul Allen, who has committed $100 million to ghting Ebola.
Although its too early to determine
whether Times coverage had a direct impact
on donations or volunteers for Ebola-ghting
organizations, Barbara Reynolds, spokeswoman for the Centers for Disease Control and
Prevention, said the publicity could be a powerful catalyst. To say were deeply touched
would be an understatement, she said. This
is a boost badly needed. Geneticist Pardis
Sabetione of the Ebola ghters we talked
with for our 40-page storyagreed, praising
Time for placing such great emphasis on the
many great African heroes.
But the ght is far from over. As Samantha Power, U.S. ambassador to the U.N., wrote to Time, This

HOW TO HELP
Many groups are
working hard to ght
Ebola, including More
Than Me (donate at
morethanme.org),
MSF (msf.org) and
the mission led
by Dr. Jerry Brown
(elwaministries.org),
who is pictured
below getting a rst
glimpse of himself
on the cover of TIME.

medical needs in countries struggling with the outbreak, the need for a exible international response

HES
NOT
IN IT
FOR
THE
LIKES.
LIVE! JANUARY 9TH
F R I DAY S AT 1 0 P M
OR WATCH IT ON

HBO GO is only accessible in the US and certain US territories. 2014 Home Box Office, Inc. All rights reserved. HBO

and related channels and service marks are the property of Home Box Ofce, Inc.

Its ofcial.
AT&Ts network now has the nations
strongest LTE signal.

1.866.MOBILITY

ATT.COM/network

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Claim based ONLY on avg. LTE signal strength for national carriers. LTE is a trademark of ETSI. LTE not avail. everywhere. 2014 AT&T Intellectual Property. All rights reserved.

THE WEEK

Briefing
C H E N E Y, O B A M A , C O S B Y, YO U N G A D U LT B O O K S , A D U LT B O O K S: G E T T Y I M A G E S; C O L B E R T: K R I S T O P H E R L O N G C O M E DY C E N T R A L ; I L L U S T R AT I O N B Y B R O W N B I R D D E S I G N F O R T I M E (2)

Id do it
again in a
minute.
DICK CHENEY, former Vice President,

Young-adult
books
Sales jumped
22.4% in the rst
three quarters
of 2014

THE U.S. AND


CUBA MADE UP

THE QUESTION
SHOULD BE
ASKEDWHO IS
THE VICTIM?
CAMILLE COSBY, defending her

husband Bill, who is facing


allegations of sexual assault from
more than a dozen women
GOOD WEEK
BAD WEEK

11 trillion

when asked whether, given the


chance, he would again authorize the
post-9/11 CIA interrogation methods
now widely condemned as torture,
after a Senate report criticized them
as brutal and ineffective

Gallons of water (42 trillion L)


needed for California to recover
from a devastating drought

Adult books
Sales were
down 3.3%
during the same
period

8
million

These
50 years of
isolation
have not
worked.
Its time for
a new
approach.

Number of
vinyl records
forecast to be
sold in 2014,
a 33% increase
from 2013

$8.7 billion
Price for which PetSmart
is selling itself to London-based
private-equity rm BC Partners

PRESIDENT
BARACK OBAMA,

announcing that the


U.S. will work to
normalize relations
with Cuba for the rst
time in half a century

That
was fun!
STEPHEN COLBERT, signing off
after nine years as host of the satirical
news show The Colbert Report

The U.S. succumbed to an unprecedented attack on


our most cherished, bedrock principle of free speech.
A ARON SORKIN, screenwriter, after Sony Pictures Entertainment canceled the
release of The Interview amid threats from hackers of 9/11-style attacks on theaters that screened the movie

time December 29, 2014January 5, 2015

Sources: NBC; BBC; Reuters; New York Times; ABC; NASA; Billboard; Mediabistro

Brieng

World
Cuba Libre

$HUPRUHWKDQ
\HDUVWKH
86ORRNVWRD
IXWXUHPLOHV
DZD\
BY BRYAN WALSH

near the beginning of a speech


on Dec. 17 announcing that the
U.S. and Cuba would begin to
resume full diplomatic relations
after more than 50 years, President Barack Obama made a personal aside. I was born in 1961,
he said, just over two years
after Fidel Castro took power in
Cuba and just a few months after
the Bay of Pigs invasion. The
point was clear: Americans and
Cubans had been living in thrall
to a history that had unfolded
before most of them had even
been born. People had changed,
but the policy hadnt. It was long
since time to break free.
But if Obama and his Cuban
counterpart, Ral Castro, put an
overdue end to one era of CubanAmerican relations, it remains
unclear what the future will look
like. The trade embargo is still in
place, if weakened by Obamas actions, and while American businesses are eager to seize a piece of
paradise, the Cuban government
still controls the economic levers. The Castro regime remains
rmly in power, a fact not lost on
the many Cuban Americans who
saw Obamas move as a betrayal.
It may well strengthen the Castros and entrench a new generation of their oppressors in power
unless Congress steps in to stop
it, Cuban-American Senator Ted
Cruz wrote on Time.com.
Just negotiating the deal was
difcult enough, requiring a
year of secret talks between the
two countries, with an assist by
Pope Francis. It wasnt until Cuba
12

Moments of change Clockwise from top left: Elosa lvarez


Snchez, 90, walks in front of a mural in central Havana; a family
in Havana watches the return of Cuban spies released by the U.S.;
an anti-Castro exile in Miami reacts after Obamas speech; Alan
Gross returns to the U.S. after ve years in a Cuban prison

M U R A L , T E L E V I S I O N : P H O T O G R A P H S B Y L I S E T T E P O O L E R E D U X F O R T I M E (2) ; F L A G : C A R L O S B A R R I A R E U T E R S; J O I N T B A S E A N D R E W S: L A W R E N C E J A C K S O N T H E W H I T E H O U S E

Brieng

14

World

Old divisions A supporter of the new approach, right, clashes with protesters in Miami on

Dec. 17. The once uniform Cuban-American community is increasingly divided over the embargo

decades opposed any rapprochement with the Castro


regime. The danger of offending a powerful voting bloc in
the key swing state of Florida
was more than enough to
keep national politicians from
both parties in lineand the
Cuba embargo rmly in place.
But the demographic tilt of
the Sunshine State is changing. The growing numbers of
Hispanic immigrants from
Puerto Rico and other parts of
Latin America dont share the
Cuban emigrs deep-seated,
personal hatred of Fidel. And

while many older Cuban


Americans still support the
embargo, their children and
grandchildren are in favor of
more relaxed travel and trade

IN HAVANA,
BELLS TOLLED
IN CELEBRATION
WHEN RAL
CASTRO
ANNOUNCED THE
POLICY SHIFT

with Cuba. A 2014 Florida


International University poll
of Cuban Americans in the
Miami area found that 68%
were open to the possibility of
restoring diplomatic relations
between the two countries
a gure that grows to 88%
among those younger than
30. Its 2015, says Julia Diaz,
a Cuban American who left
Cuba for Florida in 1970 at age
10. We need a new approach.
More than half a century
of diplomatic and economic
isolation by the U.S. has
had virtually no success

A L D I A Z M I A M I H E R A L D/ T N S/ L A N D O V

agreed to release Alan Gross, a


65-year-old American contractor who had been convicted of
espionage by a Cuban court
in 2011, that the historic shift
became a possibility. (The U.S.
and Cuba also made a separate
swap of spies.)
The prisoner releases
paved the way for Obama to
loosen restrictions on trade,
travel and diplomacy. Secretary of State John Kerry will
launch efforts to re-establish
an embassy in Havana. He
will also review Cubas place
on the list of state sponsors of
terrorism, where it has been
since 1982, even as countries
like North Korea have been
taken off. And Americans
will be allowed to send more
money to the island nation
Cuban emigrs in the U.S.
already give some $2 billion a
year to families back home
and more easily visit the
nation just 90 miles (145 km)
away. This is the culmination of years of analytic
and intellectual legwork,
says Julia Sweig, director of
Latin American Studies at the
Council on Foreign Relations.
Of course, not everyone
was so impressed. Republican Senator Marco Rubio of
Florida, a possible 2016 presidential candidate, ripped the
deal. The entire policy shift
announced today is based
on an illusion, he said. The
White House has conceded
everything and gained little.
Carlos Gutierrez, a CubanAmerican businessman and
Commerce Secretary under
President George W. Bush,
told Time that Obama got
the worst of the deal. This
is a major political win for
Ral Castro.
U.S.-Cuban relations have
been frozen largely because
of such sentiments among
Cuban Americans, who for

Brieng

World

great pride in propping up his


ideological allies in Havana,
providing Cuba with most
of its oil and billions of dollars in aida small price to
pay for sticking his nger in
Washingtons eye.
But Chvez died in 2013,
and today Venezuelas oildependent economy is all
but collapsing thanks to the
plummeting price of crude.
Realizing that theres no guarantee of future support from
Venezuela may have made
Ral Castro much more
eager to negotiate and would
have given the U.S. leverage,
says Ted Henken, a Cuba expert at Baruch College in New
York City.
For Obama, the thaw
should improve the U.S.s
standing in a region that has
shifted away from the leftist
policies of Cuba and Venezuela in recent years but is still
sensitive to any bullying from
Washington. Its going to be
a lot easier for other U.S. allies
in the region to swing away
from Venezuela, says Christopher Sabatini, the senior director of policy at the Council
of the Americas.

in changing the politics of


Cuba. The 88-year-old Fidel
outlasted 10 American Presidents and his patrons in the
Soviet Union before handing
power to his younger brother
Ral in 2011. The embargo
may have helped keep Cubans poor, but it likely enhanced the Castros stature
in Latin America, especially
since Cuba has long ceased
any real effort to export its
creaking communist revolution abroad. The gleefully
anti-American Venezuelan
President Hugo Chvez took

in havana, bells tolled in


celebration when Ral Castro
announced the policy shift,
which will have a much bigger impact on Cuba than
it will on the U.S. Ral has
taken baby steps toward a
freer market: Cubans are
now allowed to buy and sell
property, and nearly 500,000
are self-employed. Obamas
new policy could allow a ood
of capital into Cuba, whose
economy is expected to grow
by just 1.3% this year, according to Cuban government
statistics, despite the recent
economic reforms.
With Ral set to step down
in 2018, the regime has made

time December 29, 2014January 5, 2015

a calculation that allowing


greater openness will help the
country manage that historic
transitionand its old enemy
can help. That will happen
better and faster with a normal diplomatic and political
relationship with the U.S.,
says Sweig.
But Americans shouldnt
be planning their retirement
condos on the Cuban coast
yet. Change wont come over-

TICKET TO HAVANA

What the historic shift


means for Americans
and Cubans

More categories of
Americans can travel to
Cuba, including those
going for humanitarian
work, public performances,
sports or travel related to
export industries

Americans in Cuba
will be able to use credit
and debit cards

The trade ban will be


relaxed, and American
visitors will be able
to import $400 worth of
goods, including $100 of
alcohol and tobacco
products

The monetary limits


on remittances from
Americans to Cuban
citizens will be raised

night. Business will only


succeed if the Cubans want
business to succeed, says
Gutierrez. They need to demonstrate that it is different.
While Ral said in his speech
that Obama deserves the
respect and acknowledgment
of our people, he made it clear
that he wants much more.
The economic, commercial
and nancial blockade, he
said, which causes enormous
damages to our country,
must cease.
Thats not something
Obama can do on his own. The
embargo is codied into U.S.
law. While the President can
modify the implementation
of the embargo, it would take
an act of Congress to lift it altogether. Any U.S. ambassador
in Havana would also need approval by the Senate. Rubio
who sits on the Senate Foreign
Relations Committeehas
made it clear hell do whatever
he can to prevent that. This
Congress is not going to lift
the embargo, he told reporters after Obamas speech. He
may not have the nal word.
Its worth noting that Senator
Rand Paul, one of Rubios potential opponents for the 2016
Republican nomination, came
out in favor of normalizing
relations.
Cuba is still an autocracy,
and the Castro regime has decades of human-rights abuses
to answer for. But the Castros
arent the point. For over 50
years the relationship of these
two countriesat once family and foe, as Obama put it
has been as xed in the past as
the 1950s Chevrolets that putter through the streets of Havana. On Dec. 17, the U.S. and
Cuba made history by nally
looking to the future. with
reporting by girish gupta/
caracas, lori rozsa/miami
and eliza gray/new york
15

Brieng

Rubles Collapse
Spells Trouble for
Vulnerable Putin
BY SIMON SHUSTER

The stability that Russians have


long associated with Vladimir
Putins presidency collapsed in
December, along with the value of
their currency, their savings and
their stock markets. The countrys
Economy Minister called it the
perfect storm. The high oil prices
that had fed the Russian petrostate
dropped by more than 40% in the
second half of 2014, just as Western
sanctions over Ukraine bore down
on the Russian nancial system.

World

The result was Russias Black


TuesdayDec. 16when the national currency shed a fth of its
value in a matter of hours, bringing
the rubles losses for 2014 to more
than 50% against the dollar. The
central bank restored some stability
with emergency measures a day later, but the damage had been done.
Russias economy is now poised to
enter a long, deep recession.
Putin has offered no plan to x
it. He promised only that growth
is inevitable after Russia endures a
looming period of hardship. Lower
oil prices will become a fact of life,
he said at a Dec. 18 press conference.
But he cautioned his citizens not
to bow before the Wests desire to

tear out the teeth and claws of the


Russian bear. We must decide
whether we want to keep going and
ght, he said, or whether we want
our pelt to hang on the wall.
Putin would prefer to continue
the ght, of course, but even he
now realizes Russias struggle
with the West has undermined
its economy. He admitted as much
during his press conference, saying
that up to 30% of Russias economic
troubles were the result of Western
sanctions. Accordingly, his stance
toward Ukraine has shifted. On
Dec. 16, U.S. Secretary of State John
Kerry praised Moscows constructive moves toward resolving the
conict. Not constructive enough,
however, to stop President Obama
from pledging the same day to sign
a new sanctions bill.
That might allow Putin to continue blaming the West for the
crash, but his deant nationalism
will buoy his approval rating for
only so long. As ination rises in
2015, the poorer and less-educated
citizens who adore their President
will see their circumstances worsen. Deputy Prime Minister Olga
Golodets warned on Dec. 16 that
poverty would inevitably rise,
especially among families with
children. The myth of Putin the
stabilizer is now as debased as the
value of the ruble.

DATA

ARMS SALES
Weapons sales
by the worlds
largest producers
fell 2%, to
$402 billion, in
2013, according
to a report from
the Stockholm
International
Peace Research
Institute. Heres
a sampling of
where sales
increased and
fell:

+20.4%

Russia

+10.8%

South Korea

+9%

France

People wait in line on Dec. 16 at a


currency-exchange ofce in Moscow
4.5%

U.S.
AUSTRALIA

We have seen,
in the worst of times,
the best of people.

16.6%

Italy

TONY ABBOTT, Prime Minister of Australia, paying tribute to his countrys resilience
on Dec. 16, a day after an Iranian-born self-declared Muslim cleric took 17 people
hostage in a caf in Sydneys nancial district. Two hostages and the gunman
were killed as police brought the 16-hour siege to an end.

16

By Nilanjana Bhowmick and Noah Rayman

Brieng

World

Trending In

POLITICS
Israeli Prime Minister
Benjamin Netanyahu
condemned a
European Union
courts decision
to remove Hamas
from the E.U.s
list of terrorist
organizations. It
seems that too many
in Europe, on whose
soil 6 million Jews
were slaughtered,
have learned
nothing, he said.

Pakistan Unites in Pain

A Pakistani family mourns Mohammed Ali


Khan, 15, a student who was killed in the attack

On Dec. 16, seven gunmen stormed a military-run school in Pakistans northwestern city of Peshawar
and killed 148 people, most of them children, in what ofcials said was the deadliest terrorist attack in
the nations history. The militant group Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) claimed responsibility, saying
the act was retaliation against Pakistans military operations in North Waziristan, a militant hub on
the border with Afghanistan. But in the wake of the attack, Pakistans leaders vowed to step up their
ght. Heres a look at how the country is overcoming its differences to respond to the militant threat:
History of violence

A common enemy

Crackdown begins

Whats next?

The TTP, informally known


as the Pakistani Taliban,
has struck both military
and civilian targets in its
campaign to set up an
Islamic state. American
ofcials have accused
Pakistans military, led by
Army General Raheel
Sharif, of dragging its
feet against militants
as U.S. drone strikes
attempt to keep the TTP
and other groups at bay.
But after two deadly attacks
on Pakistans largest
airport in June, the military
launched a ground offensive
in the militant stronghold of
North Waziristan, claiming
at least 1,500 deaths.

The nation, bitterly divided


by political inghting, has
come together after the
attack. The government,
led since 2013 by Prime
Minister Nawaz Sharif,
declared three days of
national mourning, and
opposition leader Imran
Khan, who has staged a
series of antigovernment
protests across the
country, canceled the
demonstrations on Dec. 17
and condemned the attack.
Khan had earlier criticized
the Waziristan operation
and called for fresh peace
talks, drawing accusations
of appeasement with the
Islamist militants.

The Pakistani military


responded hours after
the attack with air strikes
on TTP positions. General
Sharif met with Afghan
President Ashraf Ghani
to discuss how to strike
against the groups leaders,
in a rare show of unity
against the Islamist threat
facing both countries.
Meanwhile, Prime

Its unclear how long the


dtente between Pakistans
political factions will last
once the shock of the
atrocity has worn off. Past
attacks, including a suicide
bombing in November that
killed over 60 people along
the Indian border, led to no
letup in unrest. Victims of
the Peshawar attack hope
this time will be different.
We have to present a
united front to the terrorists
to combat them, said
Farooq Sah, a doctor whose
son was killed in the attack.
This is not an individual
problem anymoreour
entire nation is under
attack, and we have to act.

Minister Sharif
lifted a moratorium
on the death penalty
for terrorism-related cases
and said the government
would end a tacit policy
of support for good
extremist groups whose
goals it shares.

PEACE
The Colombian leftist
rebel group FARC
declared a unilateral
and indenite truce,
beginning on Dec. 20,
for the rst time
since peace talks
began two years ago,
raising the prospect
of a permanent
peace deal after ve
decades of ghting
the government.

FAITH
American nuns
expressed great
concern about their
aging workforce in
a Vatican survey
released on Dec. 16,
which found that their
numbers had fallen
by nearly 75% in 50
years and that their
average age is in the
mid-70s.

R U B L E , R A H E E L S H A R I F : A P ; A B B O T T, N A W A Z S H A R I F, F A I T H : G E T T Y I M A G E S; P O L I T I C S : E PA ; PA K I S TA N : R E U T E R S; P E A C E : R E D U X

Brieng

Nation
An Interrogator Speaks $HUWKH6HQDWH

UHSRUWZRXOGWKH86WRUWXUHDJDLQ"
BY MASSIMO CAL ABRESI

18

According to three former senior


CIA ofcials, Beale was an interrogator
in the agency program described by Senate Democrats in a scathing report, parts
of which were released on Dec. 9. Citing
legal advice, Beale declines to conrm
that he worked for the CIA or participated in the program, the details of which
remain largely classied. He nonetheless offered a robust defense of the
program based, he says, on declassied
public documents and his knowledge
of enhanced interrogation techniques
that he gained from 1988 to 1989 as an
interrogator and student in the mili-

C:+(1,7
6'21(7+(5(
,6$9(5<675$1*(
%21'7+$7,6)250('
%(7:((17+(
,17(552*$7256$1'
7+('(7$,1((6

FORMER INTERROGATOR

beale came to the business of enhanced interrogation by chance. He


spent 20 years in the military as an Army
interrogator, most of them in the Middle
East. During that time, he stuck to the
Army-eld-manual restrictions against
physical coercion of detainees, he says.
Over time, he got to know a number of
CIA ofcials, some of whom ended up in

A strong defense John Brennan, director of the CIA, denied that the agency had

intentionally misled the public and Congress about torture of detainees after 9/11
time December 29, 2014January 5, 2015

J I M W AT S O N A F P/G E T T Y I M A G E S

the man who calls himself jason


Beale sips a draft beer as he describes
how to make someone talk. Everybody
breaks, says the retired military ofcer
amid the shufing of waiters at an upscale restaurant in his hometown. There
is no anger or hostility in his voice. He is
a father and a husband, unfailingly civil
in conversation. But the methods for extracting information that he describes
are the province of a moral universe unrecognizable to most Americans. Many
call the methods torture. Which is one
reason this former interrogator has
decided, using a pseudonym, to defend
what the U.S. government did to make
captured terrorists talk in the years
after 9/11.
The process begins, he says, with
extended sleep deprivation that undermines the foundations of consciousness. Your brains not operating the
way it shouldyou know its notbut
its hard to get control of it, Beale says.
Youre exhausted, youre beaten down,
and you know youre going to go in that
little room.
Then a second element is brought to
bear: physical duress. During questioning, unsatisfactory answers result in
other measures, Beale says, including
a violent form of manhandling known
as walling, in which the detainee is
thrown against a prefabricated wall designed to be exible and noisy.
The break, when it comes, is almost
always the same, Beale says. Its preceded
by a period of complete shutdownno
talkingand when interrogators see
that, they back off and wait. Then theres
a statement. When the detainee gives the
interrogator the information he wants,
there is a turning point, Beale says, in the
relationship between the men. When
its done, there is a very strange bond that
is formed between the interrogators and
the detainees, he says. The interrogators dont gloat or celebrate ... They would
even bring him into their arms, give him
a hug and say, Hey, its not your fault.

tarys Survival, Evasion, Resistance and


Escape (SERE) program.
Beales opinion doesnt just open a
window into the shadows of his nations
recent past; he and others believe it provides a view to our future. The Senate
report tried to resolve, once and for all,
a grim post-9/11 moral debate: How far
should we go to get captured terrorists to
talk? The reports Democratic authors say
the programs abuseswhich included a
death, near drownings, rectal hydration
and other horrorsshow why Americans should never trust their government
to use physical coercion on captives in
their name. The programs mostly Republican defenders say the abuses occurred
mostly in the panicky years after 9/11 and
that by the time the CIA program ended
in 2007, the interrogation techniques
used were legal, ethical and effective.

Brieng

the CIAs Alec station, which was tasked


with nding, capturing or killing alQaeda leaders. Meanwhile, he gained the
kind of expertise the CIA would be looking for after 9/11.
When the attacks happened, the CIA
had little experience in detention and
interrogation, and initially the agencys
efforts were a disaster. The worst abuses
took place at a hastily established,
dungeon-like site in Afghanistan called
the Salt Pit after the U.S. invaded in 2001.
One detainee died overnight in a near
freezing cell; others were beaten, hung
by their arms and forgotten about. Still
others suffered hallucinations and paranoia that drove them to self-harm and
attempts at suicide.
In 2002 the CIA formalized its detention and interrogation program with
the blessing of George W. Bushs White
House and Justice Department. Convinced more attacks were imminent,
the agency hired two former Air Force
psychologists, James Mitchell and Bruce
Jessen, who like Beale had worked in the
SERE program. The CIA program was
run at so-called black sites abroad. Initially paid by the day, Mitchell and Jessen
eventually formed a private company
that was paid $81 million by the CIA for
managing most of the detention and interrogation of the agencys 119 detainees.
Beale went through Mitchell and
Jessens training course after he left the
military in 2004 but did not work for their
company, according to a former senior
CIA ofcial. By the time Beale joined the
CIA program late that year, the agency
had reined in most of the abuses and the
pace of detentions and interrogations had
slowed, the Senate reports authors say.
From late 2004 on, the CIA took custody
of six high-value al-Qaeda operatives and
used enhanced interrogation techniques
on three of them.
One, Abu Jafar al-Iraqi, was suspected of knowing the location of Abu
Mousab al-Zarqawi, the head of al-Qaeda
in Iraq, and endured 102 hours of sleep
deprivation. During his interrogation,
his lower legs swelled and had to be
bound, and he was given blood thinners
by CIA medical ofcers, says the Senate
report. Al-Iraqi was also walled, put
into stress positions, slapped and doused

I DONT THINK ANYTHING


ABOUT THIS REPORT
STOPS A PRESIDENT WHO
IS INCLINED TO WANT
TO USE SOMETHING LIKE
THIS AGAIN.
FORMER INTERROGATOR

with 44F (7C) water for 18 minutes, the


report says.
Another, Muhammad Rahim, was
thought to know where Osama bin
Laden was hiding and was subjected to
eight sessions of sleep deprivation, two
lasting 104 hours and one lasting nearly
139 hours. During one, Rahim described
hallucinations and was allowed to sleep,
but a psychologist concluded that Rahim had been faking, and sleep deprivation was reinstituted. He was slapped,
not walled.
The parts of the Senate report made
public on Dec. 9 do not say what methods
CIA interrogators used on al-Qaedas
No. 3, Faraj al-Libi. By the time the program ended in 2007, the agency had set a
monthly limit on consecutive sleep deprivation of 180 hours, or 712 straight days.
Often, this was accomplished by handcufng detainees arms at shoulder level
to a oor-to-ceiling chain. The report says
several detainees put through the extended sleep deprivation had disturbing
hallucinations, including one detainee
who in late 2003 believed he saw his family being fed to dogs by his interrogators.
before 9/11, the u.s. prohibited
enhanced interrogation techniques,
including waterboarding, sleep deprivation and physical duress. It chastised
other countries for using some of those
techniques and prosecuted people for
doing so. In August 2002, Bush Administration lawyers issued legal opinions
arguing that the CIAs techniques werent
torture. Those opinions have since been
rescinded and repudiated, rst in Bushs
second term and more recently by President Obama.
Scientists dont know exactly what
happens to a persons mind and body
when subjected to extreme sleep deprivation in combination with physical duress.

In the short term, the techniques can


produce psychosis and paranoia. Longerterm effects have not been scientically
documented. Dr. Vincent Iacopino of Physicians for Human Rights says, Theyre
very likely to produce severe physical and
lasting harm; he points to experiments
in which animals died during periods of
extreme sleep deprivation.
If the long-term costs of enhanced interrogation on detainees are unknown,
the short-term benets to national security are not much clearer. The Senate
report says the techniques used on the
nal three detainees produced no useful intelligence. A Dec. 15, 2005, draft
of a brieng for Bush said al-Iraqi had
produced almost no information that
could be used to locate former colleagues
or disrupt attack plots. Rahim produced
no valuable intelligence; the CIAs top
clandestine ofcer at the time, Jose
Rodriguez, said interrogators had been
held back.
Al-Libi is at the center of one of the
most contentious debates about the use
of harsh techniques: whether they contributed to the discovery of bin Ladens
hiding place in Pakistan. On May 4, 2011,
two days after bin Laden was killed,
Rodriguez told Time that al-Libi was a
lead source of information that uncovered bin Ladens location. The Senate report disputes that, saying al-Libi denied
knowing him. CIA ofcials argue that
the denial, coming after extreme interrogation, helped conrm the intermediarys signicance.
Al-Libi is being held at Guantnamo
Bay and has requested a trial in U.S.
courts. Beale now lives the quiet life
of an early retiree. He is convinced the
program was ethical and has posted a
manifesto against the Senate report on
the website of the Weekly Standard, a
conservative magazine. He says harsh
interrogations are a kind of man-onman contest that has none of the tricks
and lies of softer interrogations. Its a
crying shame that we let the program no
longer be run. It was good, and now its
gone, he says. But Beales not convinced
it wont return: I dont think anything
about this report stops a President who
is inclined to want to use something like
this again in the future.

19

Brieng

Health
6

Think of willpower as your


greatest natural resource, but
know that its also a nite one,
some experts say. Every time you
engage your willpower for one
tasksaying no to a glass of
wine, passing up the free cookies
at workyou have less to resist
other temptations. Since willpower
is the secret ingredient to
meeting your goals, use it wisely.

Conserve
Your
Willpower
You know how good it feels to
tick off an item from your to-do
list. Put that to work by hacking
a massive goal (reading 24
books a year, say) into parts (two
per month). Its more gratifying
than working away at one big
goal, says George Wu, professor
at the University of Chicagos
Booth School of Business.

5
Chop
It Up
In a 2008 study, the most
effective weight-loss plan was
one in which people had to fork
over cash if they didnt meet their
goal. After 16 weeks, those with
nancial incentives lost 14 lb.
(6 kg) more than those who just
weighed in. Try it at stickK.com,
a site designed by behavioral
economists who will gladly
donate your cash to a recipient
of your choice if you fail.

20

1
The turn of another year tricks
us into seeing our big-picture
selves, our slates wiped clean.
Take advantage of it. People
commit to their goals more
ercely after a major benchmark
like New Years Day. Missed the
1st? Wait for a Monday. Its the
most popular day of the week
for starting diets and stopping
smoking, studies show.

Start
Now

How to Make
Your Resolution
Stick

One goal, 365


days. Science says
youve got this
BY MANDY OAKL ANDER

you know the old goal-setting


adage: Dont bite off more than you
can chew (especially if your goal is to
lose weight). But if that were all it
took, youd have nailed last years
planand the year before lasts.
New research is rening the art of
goal setting, offering some fresher,
less obvious insight to make 2015
the year you nally do it.

4
Raise the
Stakes

Make a
Plan

Hows this for a terrible irony:


the more you want your goal, the
less youre likely to plan for it,
according to a forthcoming paper
in the journal Behavioral Science
and Policy. Thats because we tend
to think good intentions are
enough, but an actual plan
prevents procrastination. People
with plans stick to their goals way
more often than those who wing it.

Backup plans may backre


by zapping your desire to
chase your main goal. In a
series of new studies, people
who were told to think up a
Plan B were less likely to
attain their main objective.
Researchers suspect that
having backup goals may
make failure feel somehow
more acceptable.

But Dont
Have a
Backup
Plan

3
SOURCES: LISA ORD E Z,
P R O F E S S O R AT U N I V E R S I T Y O F
A R I ZO N A S E L L E R C O L L EG E O F
M A N A G E M E N T; M A N A G E M E N T
S C I E N C E ; T H E M O N D AY C A M PA I G N S;
K AT H E R I N E M I L K M A N , A S S I S TA N T
P R O F E S S O R AT U N I V E R S I T Y O F
P E N N S Y LVA N I A S W H A R T O N S C H O O L ;
J A M A ; A D D I C T I V E B E H AV I O R S

time December 29, 2014January 5, 2015

TIME.com
Know Right Now

Politics | Business | Tech | Health | Science | Ideas | Entertainment | Living

2014 Time Inc. TIME is a registered trademark of Time Inc.

Brieng

Milestones
DIED

Sy Berger

Creator of
the modern
baseball card

A 1987 photo from du Cilles Pulitzer Prizewinning series on crack addicts in Miami
DIED

Michel du Cille

Photojournalist

In 1987, photographer Michel du Cille


immersed himself in the lives of Miami
crack addicts inside a dangerous apartment complex known to its residents as
the Graveyard. The result was a denitive
documentation of the social and human
tragedy of the crack epidemic. That work
by du Cille, who died Dec. 11 at 58, won
the Pulitzer Prizeone of three Pulitzers honoring this important and
inuential photojournalist.
Du Cille died as he lived, taking
the long, honest path. He despised
shortcuts. Even at 58, he was
hiking miles of remote

West African trail in pursuit of the Ebola


epidemic for the Washington Post.
I was honored to work with Michel for
many years at the Miami Herald and the
Post, and I remember him as a journalist of
unrelenting integrity. He spoke with the
faintest seasoning of his native Jamaica, and
his was the still, soft voice of conscience.
He demanded the best from himself and expected nothing less from the rest of us.
A great news photographand Michel
made many of themreveals its subject in a way that writing can never
match. But a great photograph also
reveals the photographer. Michel
worked in images, but his passion
was reality. No picture was
worthy unless it was honest.
david von drehle

Wilker is the author of Cardboard


Gods: An All-American Tale Told
Through Baseball Cards

SUED

CL AIMED

DIED

CONFIRMED

NAMED

A gunmaker, by
families of the
2012 Sandy Hook
Elementary School
shooting victims.
They say the
Bushmaster AR-15
rie should not have
been made available
for civilian use.

The North Pole, by


Denmark, which
argued that the
continental shelf
connects the pole
to its territory in
Greenland. A U.N.
panel will decide who
gets control: Denmark,
Russia or Canada.

Norman Bridwell,
86, creator of the
popular Clifford
the Big Red Dog
childrens books.
The house-size
dog, who debuted
in 1963, inspired a
television series and
a feature lm.

Vivek Murthy,
as U.S. Surgeon
General. Known as a
strong proponent of
gun control, he got
only one vote from a
Senate Republican.
The post had
been empty since
July 2013.

As the rst female


bishop of the Church
of England, the
Rev. Libby Lane.
The appointment
came just one
month after a new
law was signed
allowing female
bishops.

24

Berger appeared on his own


Topps card in 2004

time December 29, 2014January 5, 2015

C R A C K A D D I C T I O N I N M I A M I : M I C H E L D U C I L L E M I A M I H E R A L D ; D U C I L L E : N E W S E U M P R O D U C T I O N S; B E R G E R : T O P P S

By Josh Wilker
Where would my childhood be
without Sy Berger? Berger,
who died Dec. 14 at 91, built
the baseball-card empire that
allowed me to connect to my
idols and to all other kids who
lived, as I did, for the thrill of
opening a brand-new pack.
In the early 1950s, Berger
began turning the side business
of baseball cards into a booming
industry cannily designed to
feedand feed onthe wonder
and wants of boyhood. Were
basically in the childrens
entertainment business, he
once said.
The ebullient impresario,
aptly described as Willy Wonka
in pale blue double knit in The
Great American Baseball Card
Flipping, Trading, and Bubblegum
Book, supported his vision with
contagious enthusiasm. By
the 1970s, Berger had made
baseball cards synonymous with
American boyhood.
That connection has faltered
some in our frenetic new world,
but Bergers legacy endures in
all the connections he helped
create. Where is my childhood,
its core of joy? In gum-scented
cardboard rectangles.

Brieng

Tech
Hollywood
Hacked Why

no company is
immune
BY ALEX ALTMAN AND
SAM FRIZELL

26

Plot twist The Interview premiered on Dec. 11 in Los Angeles,

but Sony pulled the lm after hackers threatened moviegoers

cinemas scrapped screenings,


Sony shelved plans to release
the movie. The studio made
a mistake, President Barack
Obama said.
North Korean hackers allegedly hitting a U.S. movie
studio in retaliation for a Seth
Rogen comedy may sound
like the zaniest Hollywood
script. But the reality of statesponsored hacks on American
corporations can no longer be
ignored. Theres no industry
thats immune to these attacks right now, says Dmitri
Alperovitch of the cybersecurity rm CrowdStrike, which
has been tracking a group of
North Korean hackers it calls
Silent Chollima.
FireEye, the security rm
hired to probe the Sony hack,
studied the defenses of more
than 1,200 banks, government
agencies and manufacturers
over a six-month period ending in 2014 and concluded
that 97% had their last-line
defenses breached at some
point by hackers. A top FBI
ofcial told a Senate panel in
December that the Sony hack

would have evaded the security of 90% of corporations.


The balance of power, says
former cybercrime prosecutor
Mark Rasch, has shifted from
the companies to the hackers.
Cyberattacks take an
immense toll on the global
economy, costing up to
$575 billion per year. The pace
of high-prole hacks has accelerated in recent months as
banks, technology rms and
retailers such as Target and
Home Depot endured strikes
that exposed the credit-card
details of tens of millions of
customers.
Some of these attacks are
acts of espionage. The Depart-

IT SOUNDS LIKE
A HOLLYWOOD
SCRIPT, BUT
THE SONY HACK
REVEALS A
GROWING THREAT
TO U.S. COMPANIES

time December 29, 2014January 5, 2015

KE VORK DJANSE ZIAN REUTERS

the nightmare started


with skeletons. On Nov. 24,
employees of Sony Pictures
Entertainment arrived at
work in Culver City, Calif., to
nd glowing red skulls grinning back from their computer screens. The hackers called
themselves the Guardians
of Peace, and they promised
to spill the studios darkest
secrets. This, they warned,
is just a beginning.
They had burrowed deep
into the studios computer networks, pilfering terabytes of
sensitive data over what may
have been a period of months.
Now the torture began. The
attackers wiped employees
hard drives, forcing them to
conduct business on whiteboards and paper. They posted
salary data and personal
records for thousands of employees and leaked executives
damaging email exchanges.
Unreleased movies were uploaded to le-sharing hubs.
For weeks, forensic
analysts pored over code and
traced IP addresses through
countries like Thailand and
Italy. U.S. law enforcement
concluded that the culprit
was North Korea, which
was livid over the upcoming release of a Sony movie,
The Interview, about the assassination of the Hermit
Kingdoms leader, Kim Jong
Un. On Dec. 16, the hackers
invoked the Sept. 11 terrorist
attacks to warn moviegoers
away from theaters showing the lm. The next day, as

ment of Justice indicted ve


Chinese military hackers this
year for allegedly penetrating
the systems of U.S. Steel and
Alcoa. Russian-allied hackers
have been oated as suspects
in a 2014 attack on JPMorgan,
the nations largest bank, that
left some 76 million households vulnerable. Warnings
about Iranians targeting U.S.
defense contractors and energy rms have increased in
recent months.
The North Korean government denies involvement in
the Sony scheme. But the hack
bears hallmarks of earlier efforts attributed to Pyongyang,
including one carried out
against South Korean banks
in 2013. The code that crippled Sony was compiled on
Korean-language computers,
and related malware communicated with servers identical
to those used in at least one
earlier attack.
Some analysts say Sony
may have been easy prey. It
didnt encrypt or segregate
sensitive information, and it
stored passwords in a folder
labeled Passwords. Former
employees have led classaction lawsuits against the
company, alleging negligent
security. The scale of the damage is unprecedented. Its a
milestone event in American
corporate network security,
says Kurt Baumgartner of
Kaspersky Lab, an Internetsecurity vendor.
The havoc wrought by the
hackers, say security experts,
should serve as a wake-up call
to U.S. businesses. But hackers
are likely to have the upper
hand for years to come. Its
like an army coming toward
your house and youve got an
alarm and a few weapons,
says Avivah Litan, a research
analyst at Gartner. You cant
possibly protect the system.

COMMENTARY

Lev Grossman

What Sonys Hackers Know

In cyberwar, information is a weaponand


RXUFXOWXUHLVWKHEDWWOHoHOG

ccording to a bloomberg report,


the rst bits of data leaked in the
Sony hack were uploaded on Dec. 2,
shortly after midnight, through the
network of a fancy hotel in Thailand
called the St. Regis Bangkok. But it was a global effort: the hack itself involved computers in Italy, Poland, Cyprus, Singapore and Bolivia. If this were a
Bond movie, the culprit would obviously be terrorist organization SPECTREthe ve-star hotel is a
dead giveawaybut the available evidence strongly suggests that the operation was in fact carried
out by North Korea, most likely in response to the
planned release by Sony of The Interview, a comedy
starring James Franco and Seth Rogen about a CIA
conspiracy to assassinate Kim Jong Un.
Most of the shocking revelations that have
come out of the Sony hack have not, in the end,
been all that shocking. If its news that studio
heads write hyperaggressive emails to each other,
then Entourage was the intelligence coup of the
decade. The only really surprising development
is the one in plain sight: North Korea launched an
ambitious, highly public cyberattack against a major corporation in the U.S., and it actually worked.
Its not news that a big corporation suffered a
data breach. It happens all the time, literally. As
networks get more complex, they get harder and
harder to defend, to the point where theres no such
thing as an impenetrable system. There are always
holes, and most networks, military and civilian,
are under constant low-level attack from hackers of
all kinds. It has become one of the basic laws of the
digital universe that data tend to ow from private
to public. The same way nature abhors a vacuum,
the Internet abhors a secret.

here are surprising things about the


Sony hack; theyre just not the obvious things.
Nobody thought North Korea had the technical chops to pull off an operation on this scale. Weve
known for a while that cyberwar is a major focus of
North Koreas military, in part because its physical
assets and infrastructure are crumbling into obsolescence and the country doesnt have the cash to
replace them. But until now North Korea wasnt considered capable of playing in the big leagues.
And its playing by new rules. In the past,
big media companies have been hit by public
defacementthe kind of cybergrafti in which a
time December 29, 2014January 5, 2015

BIRTH
OF A
HACK

According to Akamai,
a leading contentdelivery network
provider, the top
originating countries
for cyberattacks
in the rst half of
2014 were:

43%

15%

CHINA

INDONESIA

29%

13%

OTHERS
(ALL LESS
THAN 4%)

U.S.

D ATA F R O M S E C O N D
QUA RTER 2014, BY SOURCE
I . P. A D D R E S S

front page gets rewritten or bombed ofine by a


denial-of-service attackor subjected to the discreet exltration of user passwords. But the Sony
hack was a serious public mauling of a major media
company, a deep, penetrating invasion of the kind
usually reserved for much harder targets: military,
intelligence, industry, infrastructure. You dont hit
movie studios with it.
Except now you do: North Korea has opened a
new theater for cyberwarfare, a cultural one. Its
pathetic and embarrassing that North Korea responded to a satire about its leader with an act of
large-scale cyberwarfare and threats of physical
violence, but its not hard to see why it did. The U.S.
is accustomed to exercising an easy pop-cultural
hegemony over much of the world, effortlessly
and lucratively exporting movies, TV and music,
even to countries like China that in other ways are
highly resistant to American inuence. North Korea is pushing back, and successfully: following admittedly vague threats of violence by the hackers,
the ve largest movie chains in the U.S. pulled The
Interview from their theaters, whereupon Sony canceled the movies release. Sonys decision has been
widely criticized, for plenty of theoretically sound
reasons, but the idea that freedom of speech as represented by The Interview is worth risking lives for
seems grotesque. Sony will eat around $100 million
by canceling The Interview; we can spare it the constitutional arguments on top of that.

he fallout is very far from over: its


estimated that the hackers extracted about
100 terabytes of information from Sony, of
which only maybe 50 gigabytes have so far been
made public. But just as surprising as the technical
competence the North Koreans displayed is their
deep grasp of American culture. The model here isnt
military or industrial hackingits not Stuxnet or
Targetits WikiLeaks and Snowden and even the
iCloud celebrity-photo leak. The mere act of moving
information across the line from private to public
can turn that information into a weapon that can
inict all kinds of damageespecially in America,
where were willing to turn on one another with
minimal provocation. You dont have to break hardware or steal credit cards, you just have to put some
emails and salary gures where everybody can see
them. We will then commence shaming each other,

loudly and vigorously, all by ourselves.


27

COMMENTARY

Ray Kurzweil

Dont Fear Articial Intelligence

Two great thinkers see danger in AI.


Heres how to make it safe

tephen hawking, the pre-eminent


physicist, recently warned that articial intelligence (AI), once it surpasses
human intelligence, could pose a
threat to the existence of human civilization. Elon Musk, the pioneer of digital money,
private spaceight and electric cars, has voiced
similar concerns.
If AI becomes an existential threat, it wont be
the rst one. Humanity was introduced to existential risk when I was a child sitting under my desk
during the civil-defense drills of the 1950s. Since
then we have encountered comparable specters, like
the possibility of a bioterrorist creating a new virus
for which humankind has no defense. Technology
has always been a double-edged sword, since re
kept us warm but also burned down our villages.
The typical dystopian futurist movie has one
or two individuals or groups ghting for control
of the AI. Or we see the AI battling the humans
for world domination. But this is not how AI is being integrated into the world today. AI is not in one
or two hands; its in 1 billion or 2 billion hands. A
kid in Africa with a smartphone has more intelligent access to knowledge than the President of
the United States had 20 years ago. As AI continues to get smarter, its use will only grow. Virtually
everyones mental capabilities will be enhanced by
it within a decade.

28

C
STEPHEN
HAWKING
Once humans
develop articial
intelligence, it would
take off on its own and
redesign itself ... The
development of full
articial intelligence
could spell the end of
the human race.

ELON MUSK
I think we should be
very careful about
articial intelligence. If
I had to guess at what
our biggest existential
threat is, its probably
that ... We are
summoning the
demon.

onsideration of ethical guidelines for


AI goes back to Isaac Asimovs three laws of
robotics, which appeared in his short story
Runaround in 1942, eight years before Alan Turing introduced the eld of AI in his 1950 paper
Computing Machinery and Intelligence. The
median view of AI practitioners today is that we
are still several decades from achieving humanlevel AI. I am more optimistic and put the date
at 2029, but either way, we do have time to devise
ethical standards.
There are efforts at universities and companies
to develop AI safety strategies and guidelines, some
of which are already in place. Similar to the Asilomar guidelines, one idea is to clearly dene the mission of each AI program and to build in encrypted
safeguards to prevent unauthorized uses.
Ultimately, the most important approach we
can take to keep AI safe is to work on our human
governance and social institutions. We are already
a human-machine civilization. The best way to
avoid destructive conict in the future is to continue the advance of our social ideals, which has
already greatly reduced violence.
AI today is advancing the diagnosis of disease,
nding cures, developing renewable clean energy, helping to clean up the environment, providing high-quality education to people all over the
world, helping the disabled (including providing
Hawkings voice) and contributing in a myriad of
other ways. We have the opportunity in the decades ahead to make major strides in addressing
the grand challenges of humanity. AI will be the
pivotal technology in achieving this progress. We
have a moral imperative to realize this promise
while controlling the peril. It wont be the rst time
weve succeeded in doing this.

Kurzweil is the author of ve books on articial


intelligence, including the recent New York Times
best seller How to Create a Mind
time December 29, 2014January 5, 2015

G E T T Y I M A G E S (2)

e will still have conflicts among


groups of people, each enhanced by AI.
That is already the case. But we can take
some comfort from a profound, exponential decrease in violence, as documented in Steven Pinkers 2011 book, The Better Angels of Our Nature: Why
Violence Has Declined. According to Pinker, although
the statistics vary somewhat from location to location, the rate of death in war is down hundredsfold
compared with six centuries ago. Since that time,
murders have declined tensfold. People are surprised by this. The impression that violence is on
the rise results from another trend: exponentially
better information about what is wrong with the
worldanother development aided by AI.
There are strategies we can deploy to keep emerging technologies like AI safe. Consider biotechnology, which is perhaps a couple of decades ahead of
AI. A meeting called the Asilomar Conference on
Recombinant DNA was organized in 1975 to assess

THE
PESSIMISTIC
VIEW

its potential dangers and devise a strategy to keep


the field safe. The resulting guidelines, which
have been revised by the industry since then, have
worked very well: there have been no signicant
problems, accidental or intentional, for the past 39
years. We are now seeing major advances in medical
treatments reaching clinical practice and thus far
none of the anticipated problems.

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those affected by eating disorders.

Help feed the fund. Please donate now: www.myneda.org/feedinghope

COMMENTARY / IN THE ARENA

Joe Klein

The 2014 Teddy Awards

In a dismal political year, these Americans


went far beyond the call of duty
It is not the critic who counts: not the
man who points out how the strong man
stumbles or where the doer of deeds could
have done them better. The credit belongs
to the man who is actually in the arena,
whose face is marred by dust and sweat and blood, who
strives valiantly, who errs and comes up short again
and again ... who spends himself in a worthy cause;
who, at the best, knows, in the end, the triumph of high
achievement, and who at the worst, if he fails, at least he
fails while daring greatly.
t e ddy ro o s e v e lt

30

BARACK OBAMA
The President lost
the midterms but
stuck to policies both
safe and sound

MICHELLE NUNN
The Senate hopeful
led public-service
efforts when she could
have been fundraising

ROBERT GATES
The former Pentagon
chief raised doubts
about pulling
U.S. troops out of Iraq

TO RE AD JOES
BLOG POSTS, GO TO
time.com/swampland

time December 29, 2014January 5, 2015

G E T T Y I M A G E S (3)

This has been a terrible year for Barack Obama, a


humiliation. Members of his own party, across the
sorry South and West, ed from his shadow. He
was hammered relentlessly by an egregious opposition. He made needless unforced errors in his public statements. His occasionally negligent foreign
policy came back to haunt him, especially in the
failed states of Iraq and Libya. But he deserves the
lead Teddymy annual award for political courage,
named after Teddy Rooseveltbecause his policies
remain moderate, sane and humane. And by and
large, theyve worked. His executive action on immigration was not just legal but also surpassingly
moralallowing the parents of American citizens
to stay with their children. His response to the Ebola
crisis, the decision to send American troops to save
lives in the African hot zone, was a great example of
what America should be doing abroad. His health
care plan quietly brought coverage to millions. His
stimulus plan, which prevented a depression, paid
belated dividends as the economy began to soar. He
continued the essential negotiations with the Iranians, which may bear fruit in the coming year. His
stubborn sanity is hereby recognized.
The election campaign of 2014 was dismal, but
there was one innovation that should be noted: politicians who campaigned by doing public-service
projects. One was Michelle Nunn, a not very charismatic candidate who ran for U.S. Senate from Georgia and lost. Nunn, who has spent her life promoting
public service, walked her walk on the campaign
trail, spending hours cleaning parks and preparing meals for the elderly when she could have been
dialing for dollars. Another was Seth Moulton, a
former Marine captain and newly elected Congressman from Massachusettswhose campaign
featured teams laced with post-9/11 veterans doing

AND THE
TEDDY GOES
TO . . .

community projects. Moultons altruism reects the


values of his military generationmore than 90%
of whom say they want to continue their service at
home. It seems a concept that should catch on: politicians who demonstrate their desire to serve ... by
actually serving in their communities.
Speaking of veterans, Paul Rieckhoff of Iraq and
Afghanistan Veterans of America has been an edgy,
controversial gure in recent years, a creative critic
of the Department of Veterans Affairs. The revelation of widespread corruption and incompetence
in the VA, and the dismissal of Secretary Eric Shinseki, proved the value of Rieckhoffs persistence.
His willingness to take ak for his brothers and
sisters in arms merits a Teddy.
The 2016 presidential campaign is on and, in its
early days, has produced three Teddy-worthy mavericks. One is Elizabeth Warren, who may not run
but will certainly inuence the Democratic Partys
economic debate. She deserves a lifetime Teddy for her
work against the depredations of the nancial sector
and her ability to explain complex problems in a manner comprehensible to average humans. Another is
Jeb Bush, who has challenged his party on immigration and education. And Rand Paul provided a fresh
neolibertarian challenge to his party on a variety of
issues, especially foreign policy and prison reform.
Political memoirs rarely provide fodder for Teddys, but there were two courageousand actually
readableefforts this year that deserve the nod.
One was Duty, by former Secretary of Defense Robert Gates, which provided a erce narrative of a
public ofcial who fought his own bureaucracy (and
Congress) for the benet of the troops on the ground
in Iraq and Afghanistan. A second was Outpost, by
former ambassador Christopher Hill, who is less
well known than Gates, but a truly gifted, sometimes hilarious and, dare I say, undiplomatic writer
about the frustrations and occasional successes of
his work. A Teddy is also awarded to a great career
diplomat who retired this year: Deputy Secretary of
State William Burns, who spent decades of quiet service making the world a safer place, from his time as
ambassador to Russia to his recent work on the Iran
nuclear negotiations. We need many more like him.
Finally, a Teddy seems hardly sufcient recognition for those courageous journalists who lost
their lives in pursuit of the story this year, especially those beheaded by ISIS. It is a reminder, though,
that we, too, live in the arena.

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2015: THE YEAR AHEAD

T HE

NE W

RUL E S

OF

S PAC E
S C I E N C E

&

M E D I C I N E

T E C H N O LO GY
H E A LT H

Photograph by Marco Grob for TIME

C A R E

STAR TWINS
Mark, left, and
Scott Kelly are
NASAs test
subjects for the
effects of longterm space travel

THE YEAR AHEAD | DISCOVERY

MISSION
TWINPOSSIBLE
THE KELLY TWINSONE IN ORBIT AND ONE ON EARTHMAY
HELP NASA UNLOCK THE SECRET OF LONG-TERM SPACE TRAVEL
BY JEFFREY KLUGER

when scott kelly calls home from


the International Space Station (ISS) sometime next year, whoever answers the phone
may simply hang up on him. The calls will
be welcome, but the link can be lousy, with
long, hissing silences breaking up the
conversation. Thats what happens when
youre placing your call from at least 229 mi.
(369 km) above the Earth while zipping
along at 17,500 m.p.h. (28,164 kph) and your
signal has to get bounced from satellites to
ground antennas to relay stations like an
around-the-horn triple play. When someone answers, I have to say, Its the space
station! Dont hang up! says Kelly.
Thats not likely to be necessary when
he calls his brother Mark. Perhaps best
known as the husband of former Congresswoman Gabrielle Giffords, who was
grievously wounded in an assassination
attempt in 2011, Mark is a former astronaut who has been to space four times.
He knows the crackle of an extraterrestrial signal in his ear, just as he knows
the singular feeling of weightlessness,
the singular sweep of Earth outside the
windowand the power of 229 miles of
altitude to make a person feel alone. Drive
that in the at and its nothing more than
Syracuse to Boston. Fly it straight up and
its a whole other thing.
But most of all, Mark, 50, knows Scott,
50which is how it is with brothers, especially when theyre identical twins, born
factory-loaded with the exact same genetic
34

operating system. The brothers connection will be more important than ever
beginning in March, when Scott takes off
for a one-year stay aboard the space station, setting a single-mission record for a
U.S. astronaut.
Scott will be partnered in his marathon
mission with Russian cosmonaut Mikhail
Kornienko. They, in turn, will be joined by
a rotating cast of 13 other crew members,
all of whom will be aboard for anywhere
from 10 days to six months, conducting
experiments and reconguring various
station modules for the arrival of privately built crew vehicles, which could come
early as 2017.
A year in space will require Scott to
leave behind a lot: his Houston home, his
daughtersSamantha, 20, and Charlotte,
11and his girlfriend of ve years, Amiko
Kauderer, a NASA public-affairs ofcer.
(He and his rst wife are divorced.) But he
wont, in some ways, leave Mark behind.
Ever since the Apollo days, the U.S. has
vaguely discussed a crewed mission to
Mars, though the target date for the grand
expedition has always remained a convenient decade or two away. But on Dec. 5,

THE NEW RULE THE U.S. WILL QUIT TALKING


ABOUT A TRIP TO MARS AND START PREPARING

NASA took a big step toward that goal,


with the successful uncrewed test ight
of the Apollo-like Orion spacecraft
Americas deep-space ship of the future.
Add to that the competition from upstarts
like Elon Musks SpaceX and newbie nations like China and India, with their own
surging space programs, and the scramble
for cosmic supremacy is accelerating fast.
The biggest problem with our exploratory ambitions is, simply, us. The human
body is a purpose-built machine, designed
for the one-G environment of Earth. Take
us into the zero-G of space or the 0.38 G of
Mars and it all comes unsprung. Bones get
brittle, eyeballs lose their shape, hearts
beat less efciently since they no longer
have to pump against gravity, and balance
goes awry. At least thats what we know
so far. Theres quite a bit of data [on human health] for six months in orbit, says
space-station program manager Mike Suffredini. But have we reached stasis at six
months, or do things change at one year?
Is there a knee in the curve we havent
reached yet?
So NASA needs subjects to venture out
and run the long-duration tests. In a perfect experiment, every one of those subjects would also have a control subject on
the groundsomeone with, say, the exact
same genes and a very similar temperament, so you could tease apart the changes
that come from being aloft for 12 months
from those that are a result of growing

the same year older on Earth. In the Kelly


brothersand only the Kelly brothers
NASA has that two-person sample group.
The twins study didnt come up when we
were selecting crew for the mission, says
Suffredini. But it occurred to us later that
we had this ground-based truth in Mark.
What NASA calls a ground-based
truth, of course, Scott calls a big brother
(by six minutes). And while the mission
that is to come may be equal parts science
experiment, endurance test and human
drama, it is to the Kelly brothers (and only
the Kelly brothers) just the latest mile in a
journey theyve shared for half a century.

I C O N S B Y H E AT H E R J O N E S F O R T I M E

ROCKET MEN
its a matter of historical record
that Scott and Mark Kelly never got
around to building an airplane. They never built a rocket ship either, but on both
counts they can be forgiven. Theres rarely
much follow-through when youre 5 years
old and you hatch your plans at night, in
whispers, after your parents have put you
to bed.
The brothers did their planning around
the time of the Apollo 11 moon landing,
when space travel seemed sublimely cool.
They were alike in their fascination with
spaceand in other ways too. Like many
twins, they spoke their own private language in toddlerhood, gibberish that was
unintelligible to adults but seemed to
make perfect sense to them. They dressed
alike until rst grade too. There is a picture of us in orange shorts, orange striped
shirts and bow ties, Mark sayswith a
small wince. We did everything together
until college and were always on the edge
of getting into trouble.
By the late 1980s, both brothers were
commissioned as naval aviators and both
were assigned to active duty aboard aircraft carriers. Upon nishing their rst
squadron assignment and tour of duty,
both became Navy test pilots. In 1995 they
applied to NASA, and by 1996, they were
dressing identically once againand once
again in orangethis time in the pressure
suits of a space-shuttle astronaut.
From 1999, the brothers served a combined seven missions, though they never
went to space together. (NASA had no policy against that, but Scott nixed the idea. I
thought it would really suck for our kids
time December 29, 2014January 5, 2015

CELESTIAL
BODY
How a year in zero
gravity affects the
human body

MUSCLES
Muscles may weaken,
particularly calves,
quadriceps and neck
and back muscles
that support the body
against the force of
gravity.

EAR (BALANCE)
Weightlessness may
cause motion sickness
and disorientation. The
body can adapt over
time, but the same
symptoms can return
during reacclimation to
gravity back on Earth.

COGNITION
Sleep may not come
easy due to tight
schedules and ambient
noise, leading to as little
as six hours of quality
sleep a night. Over long
periods of time, this
may cause anxiety and
hinder alertness.

EYES

SKIN

Without gravity, uids


shift upward, putting
pressure on the optic
nerve and eyeball. This
may lead to a loss of
visual acuity.

Skin thins and loses


elasticity. It may also
become more sensitive.
Wounds may take longer
to heal, and infections
may be more common.

HEART

BONES

The heart muscle does


not have to ght gravity
to pump uids to the
upper extremities. This
may cause the heart to
weaken.

Bones may lose minerals


like calcium, weakening
them. As calcium is
ushed from the body, it
may become concentrated
and form kidney stones.

SOURCE: NASA

COUNTERMEASURES
How to limit the damage
Exercise
The crew is required to
work out for two hours a
day, beneting the heart,
muscles, bones and mood.
Communication
Real-time email, calls to
family and access to a
psychiatrist can alleviate
stress and boost morale.
Nutrition
A carefully regulated diet as
well as nutrient supplements
can prevent deciencies that
weaken the body.
Garments
Lower-body negative-pressure
garments can draw uids
back from the head and may
limit damage to vision.

to lose both their dad and their uncle in


one accident.) And while they insist there
has never been any competition between
them, their interplay suggests a gentle
tweaking all the same. Scott ew rst,
Mark says, but I ew twice before he got
his second ight. Then I ew my third before he did.
Over drinks at Boondoggles, an astronaut haunt in Houston, Scott describes
a stubborn eye twitch he experienced
during re-entry after his last mission, a
159-day stay aboard the space station that
ended in 2011. Its something other longduration astronauts have complained of
too, but there is no explanation for it yet.
What do you mean your eyes
twitched? Mark asks.
Yours didnt? Scott responds.
No.
Your ights werent long enough.
By shuttle standards, Marks flights
were actually pretty standard in terms
of duration. His four trips ran about two
weeks each, giving him a total of 54 days in
35

HATS OFF
Mark Kelly, right,
has spent 54 days
in space; Scott
has logged 180
days, with a year
coming up

Photograph by Marco Grob for TIME

WH E N S O M E O N E
ANSWE RS , I HAVE
TO S AY, IT S TH E
S PAC E STATI O N !
DONT HANG UP!
S C OT T K E L LY

THE YEAR AHEAD | DISCOVERY

space. Scotts rst two ights were similar,


but his 159-day stay put him at a running
total of 180, with a full year coming up next.

A DAY IN ORBIT
as much of an adventure as scotts
mission is likely to be, neither Mark nor
anyone else would envy him every part
of it. The ISS is spacious enough: from end
to end, it measures 358 ft. (109 m), a little
larger than a football eld. The 14 modules
that make up the living and work space
represent only a small fraction of that
overall sprawl, but together they provide
as much habitable space as the interior of
a 747or, as the astronauts prefer to think
of it, as much as a four-bedroom house.
Still, stay inside any house for a year
even one in orbitand youre going to fall
into a routine. For all astronauts, a day
aboard the station begins and ends in a
private enclosure about the size of a phone
booth that serves as sleep chamber and personal space, with enough room for a laptop
computer, a few belongings and a sleeping
bag. Reveille, in the form of an alarm from
a wristwatch or an iPad in each astronauts
enclosure, comes at about 6:30 a.m. (Greenwich mean time), but Scott admits that on
his last ight he often hit the snooze button. I wouldnt wake up at the time it says
on the schedule, he says. Id generally get
30 extra minutes of sleep.
When astronauts do crawl out of the
sack, the day that unfolds usually follows
a 30/40/30 work breakdown30% of the
time devoted to science experiments, 40%
to physical exercise and monitoring the
stations systems and 30% to xing hardware breakdownswhich is the way of
things when your home requires 52 computers, 3.3 million lines of code, 8 miles
(13 km) of wiring and 90 kW of power
coming from an acre of solar panels just to
keep operating.
The daily schedule does allow for some
downtime. Movies and books are stocked
in the station, and NASA can send up nearly any TV show the astronauts request.
The crew members are free to email with
family members whenever they want, call
home when theyve got a good downlink
and surf the Internetthough the connection can be sluggish.
On this ight, the time for distractions
may be especially tight, thanks to the bat38

tery of 10 medical and psychological tests


that will be on the agenda for both Scott
and Kornienko in orbit and for Mark on the
ground. Flight surgeons will run studies
of cardiovascular efciency, blood-oxygen
levels and blood volume. Bone density will
be monitored, as well as cellular aging and
uid shifts in the body. Sonograms will be
taken of the eye and optic nerve to determine how those shifts affect vision.
The bodys microbiome will come
in for scrutiny as well. The bacteria that
make their home in your gut are crucial
to maintaining bodily function, but everyones internal ecosystem is different,
depending on diet and environment. The
twins microbiomes will be regularly compared, via the unlovely business of analyzing body waste. Giving urine and stool
samples is an incredibly exciting thing to
do, Mark says drily. But in the service of
human spaceighteven when that service is secondhandits worth the small
indignity. I miss every day I spent in
space, Mark readily admits.

YOUR BRAIN ON SPACE TRAVEL


if the body can suffer from longterm space ight, the mind is hit even
harderand that causes NASA particular concern. Psychologists will track
Kornienkos and Scotts cognitive function, mood and stress level, partly with
regularand privateinterviews. They
will be especially alert for what is known

THE ONE PE RSON WHO


COU LD HAVE G I VE N M E
TH E MOST SUPP ORT
WAS OFF TH E PL ANE T.
M A R K K E L LY

as the third-quarter effect, a slacking off


of psychological performance that hits between the half and three-quarter point of
any long connement or tour of duty.
Scott has own a six-month mission,
so we have data on him, says NASA psychologist Al Holland. But its not a linear
thing. Running a full marathon is different from running two half-marathons.
Here, the science must yield a bit to the
wild card of human emotion, and even a
veteran like Scott may have trouble wrapping his mind around the scope of the
mission hes about to undertake. His ight
begins on March 28, but he has to leave the
U.S. on Feb. 16, since he will take off from
the Russians Baikonur launch complex.
Recently, Kauderer, his girlfriend, mused
that since his birthday is Feb. 21, hell be 50
when he leaves the country and 52 when
he comes home . I was like, Thanks for
pointing that out, he laughs.
Its easy to make jokes at T minus three
months. Things will get harder in the
spring, when the missions 5,920 orbits get
under way. It is then that the brother in
space will be especially fortunate to have
the brother on the ground. This is a dangerous job, says Mark. The public doesnt
understand how dangerous. But Scott can
talk to someone whos done this before.
During Scotts last mission, it was Mark
who had to lean on himin January 2011,
when Giffords was shot. NASA got the
news up to Scott, and it was only later that
the brothers could talk. For Mark, it wasnt
quite the same. The one person who could
have given me the most support, he says,
was off the planet. This time, the support
will likely come from the ground up.
Mark has already retired from NASA
but is a consultant for SpaceX and has not
given up thoughts of returning to space
one day. Scott has not decided whether
hell retire when he returns to Earth in
2016. Either way, its unlikely that the Kelly brothers, who once dreamed of building a rocket ship side by side, will ever y
in one together. But if humanity hopes to
beat the biological limits that conne us
to one small planet in a trackless universe,
it will depend on the kind of science both
brothers will soon make possible. Only
one Kelly name will be on the mission
patch, but to those who appreciate the
brothers bond, it will stand for both.
time December 29, 2014January 5, 2015

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THE YEAR AHEAD | DISCOVERY

2015 DISCOVERY CALENDAR


Early 2015

The Large Hadron


Collider in Switzerland
and France is
expected to reach
maximum power

W
MARCH

Solar Impulse, a
Swiss-built aircraft,
begins its rst attempt
to y around the world

PRODUCTS THAT ARE ...


COMING BACK

MOST ANTICIPATED
BY JACK LINSHI

M&Ms Crispy

Apple Watch

Will return to stores


nationwide in January
following a 10-year hiatus
W

Apples rst smart


watch will go on sale in
early 2015
W

French Toast Crunch

Oculus Rift

The cereal sold from


1995 to 2006 will be
widely available in January
W

The virtual-reality
company bought by
Facebook is expected
to release a headset
sometime in 2015
W

Your favorite Blizzard


flavor

Windows 10

Microsofts latest
operating system,
expected by the end of
2015, brings back the
Start menu
W

Lime Skittles

W
MAY

Expo 2015, the


rst Worlds Fair
since 2012, will open
in Milan

W
JULY

Launched in 2006,
the New Horizons
probe is expected to
pass closer to Pluto
than any other craft
has done, on July 14

These return with


Skittles Orchards, which
are exactly what they
sound like
W

Amazon Echo

Theres no set launch date


for this Siri-like speaker
system, but its likely to
arrive next year
W

Surge

Coca-Colas citrus drink,


which returned in late 2014
after a 12-year hiatus, will
be available exclusively on
Amazon in 2015
W

12.2-in. iPad

Rumor has it that Apple


will unveil its biggest
tablet yet
W

Yumbo

HBO streaming service

Burger Kings hot hamand-cheese sandwich


is back in stores as of
December 2014

A stand-alone service will


reportedly launch in April,
when Game of Thrones
Season 5 premieres
W
Samsung bendable
phone

Samsung may release a


phone by the end of the
year with a display that
can fold in half

OCTOBER

Airbus delivers the


rst of its A320neos,
replacing the A320

AND MORE . . .
Starbucks will
begin delivering
coffee

42

Bob Marley
branded weed
goes on sale

Kim Kardashians
book of seles is
out April 28

Ofcial Hello
Kitty Caf opens
in summer

4-D roller
coaster opens at
Six Flags Fiesta
Texas

S O L A R I M P U L S E , A I R B U S , L A R G E H A D R O N C O L L I D E R , D A I R Y Q U E E N , K A R D A S H I A N , M A M M O G R A M , S U N S C R E E N , H E A R T, F R I E S , P I L L S : G E T T Y I M A G E S; M A R L E Y, S H A N G H A I T O W E R : A P

Dairy Queen is bringing


back a discontinued
Blizzard avor by fan vote
W

MEDICINES BIG MOVES


BY ALEX ANDRA SIFFERLIN
High-tech
mammograms

Better
sunscreen

A new heart
treatment

Way more
calorie counts

Recent studies
suggest
that 3-D
mammography
is a highly
accurate
breast-cancerscreening tool.
Not all hospitals
and doctors
offer it yet, but
all signs point
to its becoming
much more
common in
2015. Hologic,
one of two U.S.
companies
selling 3-Dmammogram
machines, says
theres now at
least one device
in all 50 states.

In late 2014,
President
Obama signed
into law the
Sunscreen
Innovation Act
that will require
the FDA to
quickly respond
to pending
ingredient
applications
that have been
waiting for a
response for
over a decade.
By summer,
theres a good
chance that
Americans will
have more
effective
sunscreens to
choose from.

The drug
company
Novartis has
submitted for
approval a new
heart-failure
drug, LCZ696,
that may
replace ACE
inhibitors, the
current standard
of care. A
recent clinical
trial ended
early when
it was clear
LCZ696 saved
more lives.
Novartis says
FDA approval is
expected in the
second half of
2015.

In late 2014,
the FDA
unveiled new
rules requiring
chains with
more than 20
locations
including
restaurants,
movie theaters
and amusement
parksto
display calorie
tallies for all
their foods.
Companies were
given a year
to comply, so
expect to start
seeing more of
these kinds of
labels as 2015
wears on.

Promising new
cholesterol
drugs

The FDA is
expected to
approve drugs
called PCSK9
inhibitors, which
were shown in
trials to be effective alternatives for people
who do not
tolerate statins,
the common
heart medication. No other
drug has been
shown to lower
cholesterol as
well as PCSK9
inhibitors, and
several companies are developing their own
versions.

LOF TY CONCLUSION
The worlds second tallest building, the
Shanghai Tower, left, is scheduled to open to
the public in 2015. The 2,073-ft.-tall (632 m)
skyscraper, which broke ground in 2008, will
feature hotel rooms and ofce space as well as
energy-producing wind turbines. It joins the Jin
Mao Tower and the Shanghai World Financial
Center, right, to form the worlds rst group of
three adjacent supertall buildings.

THE NEW
RULE
MORE
SK YSCR APERS
WILL OPEN IN
CHINA IN 2015
THAN IN ANY
OTHER NATION

43

THE YEAR AHEAD | DISCOVERY

REBECCA
MINKOFFS DIGITAL
RETAIL RETROFIT
FASHION BOUTIQUES ARE LEADING THE CHARGE TO MERGE
CONNECTED TECHNOLOGY WITH REAL-WORLD RETAIL OUTLETS
BY COLLEEN NIK A

Photograph by Geordie Wood for TIME

store experience. You can come in here


and be completely anonymous, or you can
get VIP treatment, she says. You can take
back control.
Minkoff is not alone. Retailers ranging
from Apple to Walmart are exploring new
technologies to transform the shopping
experience. Now-familiar touches like
paperless receipts, signing for purchases
on a touchscreen and ordering an item
online to pick it up at a store are mere precursors to what Minkoffs CEO calls retail 3.0. Fashion rms such as Burberry
and Topshop are experimenting with
preference-tracking technologya staple
of online shopping, in which shoppers
receive recommendations based on past
selectionssimilar to Minkoffs.
Meanwhile, technology firms like
Google are likely to play a growing role in
in-store shopping, thanks to their digital
payment systems. (Consumers can now
tap their new iPhones to pay at some
stores.) Even Amazon is planning to test
a location in Manhattan in 2015 that will
offer limited inventory and same-day shipping to New Yorkers.
To help push the envelope, Minkoff
is partnering with another online giant,
eBay. Rebecca and Uri have been working with Healey Cypher, eBays head of
retail innovation, who has integrated
digital experiences into physical stores
such as Nordstrom and Kate Spade. (eBay
may be hoping that pushing into physical stores will bolster its agging online

THE NEW RULE PHYSICAL RE TAIL WILL STE AL


FROM THE PL AYBOOK OF ONLINE SHOPPING

sales.) Cypher persuaded the Minkoffs to


implement RFID technologysmall tags
that can store data. Now every garment is
tagged, identied and tracked, streamlining the stockroom and making the stores
interactivity possible. We approached this
store like software. Itll get better. Its a living, breathing store, says Cypher. He says
the technology is already leading to higher
sales but wont disclose by how much.
Retail analysts expect to see more of this
in 2015. Changes to a store near you could
include mood-detecting technology
what Sarah DaVanzo, chief culturalstrategy officer of ad agency Sparks &
Honey, calls moodgeisting. Its already
happening in other industries. She says airlines, for instance, are experimenting with
seating yers according to shared interests
from their social networks. The hope for retailers is to generate higher sales per square
foot. Says DaVanzo: If its going to get me

I L L U S T R AT I O N B Y D I E T E R B R A U N F O R T I M E

from the street, rebecca minkoffs


new flagship boutique in Manhattans
SoHo district looks a lot like a minimalist
art gallery. The slim, cavernous interior
is painted in muted tones that contrast
with the electric colors of the 34-year-old
designers signature handbags. But inside,
things turn high-tech: in the front of the
store, which opened in November, a giant
mirrored panel shows images of models
sailing down a runway. Shoppers are interacting with the displaywhich is both
a mirror and a touchscreen, powered by
software that aims to play omnipotent
personal shopper. Entering their phone
number, they order up a personalized tting room. Once inside, another smart
mirror takes over, offering style tips based
on their selections, as well as the ability to
request a different size or simply change
the lighting. Minkoffs app for mobile
phones saves their browsing history and
style preferences for the next visit. When
a customer is ready to make a purchase,
a cheery sales attendant takes payment
on an iPad.
All this digital nery is built on a rm
fashion foundation. Minkoff first attracted buzz in 2005 when her Morning
After handbags ($525) became popular
with such celebrities as Reese Witherspoon and Jennifer Lawrence. Since then,
the California-born designer has expanded into womens wear, accessories,
footwear and jewelry. Her privately held
companyMinkoffs brother Uri is its
CEOwill surpass $100 million in sales
in 2014 and, she says, is protable. Now
Minkoff, who has four stores but does
most of her sales online, is increasingly
looking to high technology to rene the

HOT
PROPERTY
Minkoff and
her newest
NYC store

WILL YOU BE
PAYING WITH
CASH OR
CREDIT OR . . .?
BY VICTOR LUCKERSON

You may be reaching


for your wallet much
less frequently as tech
companies, banks and
retailers try to make
cash a thing of the past.
Apple Pay, a new iPhone 6
feature that allows users
to buy goods in physical
stores with a wave of
the device, registered
1 million credit cards
in its rst 72 hours of
availability in October.
A rival system, called
CurrentC, is backed
by Walmart, Best Buy
and Target and will
launch in the rst half
of 2015. Overall, mobile
commerce in the U.S.
is expected to rise 35%,
to $149 billion, in 2015,
according to research
rm Euromonitor.

YOU CAN COME IN


HERE AND . . . TAKE
BACK CONTROL .
REBECCA MINKOFF

better services, if it knows my size, its going to get me better options.


Not everyone is convinced a retail revolution is in the ofng, though. Simon Collins, a creative consultant and former dean
of fashion at Parsons the New School for
Design, argues that retailers are focusing
on high tech over commonsense improvements. Some good lighting, some good
musicis it really so hard? he asks. Then
theres privacy, a potentially growing concern in the wake of major hacking attacks
on outlets like Target.
The Minkoffs and Cypher think theyve
found an ideal balance. But time will tell if
shoppers go for the digital dazzle. Back at
the boutique, Suhey Estevez, a Harpers Bazaar intern who runs a fashion blog called
Leather Is the New Black, says she enjoyed
playing with the stores smart mirrors and
watching her fellow shoppers do sobut
she didnt buy anything.

THE NEW RULE SERVICES


LIKE UBER AND SE AMLESS ARE
TR AINING CONSUMERS TO TRUST
DIGITAL PAYMENT SYSTEMS

45

THE YEAR AHEAD | DISCOVERY

CLIMATE
STRANGE
FORGET GLOBAL WARMINGAND
GET READY FOR GLOBAL WEIRDING
B Y B R YA N W A L S H

These are the winters of our


discontent. In 2014 much of
the eastern half of the U.S.
was gripped by cold so extreme that 91% of the Great
Lakes was frozen by the beginning of March, the second
largest extent of ice in more
than 40 years. Throughout
the contiguous U.S., average
temperatures for the winter
were 1F below the 20th century average. Yet the West
was comparatively hot, and
California had its warmest
winter on record. This isnt
global warming, exactly. Its
global weirding.
Chances are there will be
more of the same this winter.
Most of the Midwest and the
East have already endured
a polar blast in November
thanks to a so-called Omega
block, a pattern of stationary
air pressure that froze cold
weather in place. A forecast
model developed by Judah

Cohen, a climatologist at the


rm Atmospheric & Environmental Research, predicts
a winter much like the last,
with colder-than-average
temperatures east of the
Rockies and unusually warm
weather up the West and
into Alaska.
Cold winters paired with
increasingly warm years may
become the norm, at least
for a while. But far from
disproving climate change,
cold winters may actually be
driven by itthough scientists disagree on how.
Jennifer Francis, a climatologist at Rutgers University,
puts some of the blame on
a phenomenon called Arctic
amplication. The far north

has warmed more than twice


as fast as the rest of the
globe on average, in part
because as Arctic Sea ice
melts, white snow cover,
which reects sunlight, is
replaced by dark open ocean,
which absorbs heat. That
could be allowing cold polar
air to pour farther south than
usual. Other scientists hypothesize that more frequent
La Nia effectsperiods
of sustained cooling of the
surface water of the eastern
tropical Pacicmay be driving the wild winters.
But while studies predict
that the heightened chance
of icy winters may persist
over the next few decades,
beyond that rising temperatures will eventually overwhelm those cold bursts, and
global warming will win out as
advertised.

THE NEW RULE FOR THE NE XT FEW YE ARS, GLOBAL


WARMING WILL LE AD TO COLDER, MORE BRUTAL WINTERS
46

THE FEAR INDEX

WILL VIRTUAL
REALITY
FINALLY GO
MAINSTREAM?

WHAT TO BE AFRAID OFAND WHAT TO BE EXTREMELY AFRAID OFIN 2015

B Y A L E X F I T Z PAT R I C K

MILD FEAR

THE NEW RULE SOF T WARE

THE RAPTURE

FULL-LENGTH
FROZEN
SEQUEL

Some believers
speculate its
going to happen
on Sept. 23,
2015.

You likely wont


have to shell
out for tickets in
2015. A short
is coming in the
rst part of the
year, though.

TEEN CAR
CRASHES
Research shows
recent licenseplate-decal rules
in New Jersey
have helped cut
fatalities. New York
and Massachusetts
may follow suit.

LIFE ALTERING

ANOTHER
GOVERNMENT
SHUTDOWN
Mitch McConnell
has said its not a
possibility, though
a debt-ceiling vote
must take place by
summer to avoid
default.

LIFE THREATENING

Virtual reality, a longpromised but never fully


realized technology,
is on its way. In 2015
consumers will be able to
purchase headsets that
create realistic 3-D worlds
from such companies as
Samsung and Oculus VR,
the startup that Facebook
bought for $2 billion in
July. Sony is working on
a system that hooks up
to its PlayStation console.
This was the year where
it all started to really
work, explains Oculus
VR CEO Brendan Iribe,
who says the Facebook
deal has helped Oculus
hire the industrys best
talent and open a research
lab experimenting
with virtual reality.
The question now: Will
there be enough content?
Games are a given, but
for the headsets to reach
a wider audience, they
will need to be able to play
movies and stream sports
events, for instance.

B Y D A N I E L D A D D A R I O

AUTO
RECALLS
SOLAR FLARES
Scientists predict
the peak of the
current weakerthan-average
solar cycle will
fade in 2015,
though we could
still see energy
bursts disrupt
communications.

More recalls are


likely, given multiple
evolving crises,
though most automakers nowGM
includedare trying to get ahead of
potential problems.

AND MEDIA, NOT HARDWARE, WILL


DE TERMINE THE SUCCESS OF VR

FUJI ERUPTION
Some scientists speculate that Fuji has been
due to erupt since Japans 2011 earthquake;
it last erupted in 1707.
But theres no proven
causal link between
quakes and eruptions.

ARMED CONFLICT
Theres ISIS in Iraq.
Theres Putin in
Russia. And theres
Kim Jong Un in North
Korea. So, probably.

CHOCOLATE
SHORTAGE
Thanks to drought,
demand for cocoa is
forecast to outpace
supply, with the decit hitting 1 million
metric tons by 2020.

INTENSE FEAR

I C E B E R G : C A M I L L E S E A M A N ; F R O Z E N : D I S N E Y; R A P T U R E , M C C O N N E L L , A U T O, F U J I , C H O C O L AT E , A R M E D C O N F L I C T: G E T T Y I M A G E S; T E E N C A R C R A S H E S: N J D M V; I L L U S T R AT I O N B Y D I E T E R B R A U N F O R T I M E

47

THE HAPPY
HEALER
Dr. Garrison
Bliss is shaking
up how primarycare medicine
works

MEDICINE
GETS PERSONAL
HOW CAN AMERICANS GET BETTER HEALTH CARE FOR LESS MONEY?
THERES A QUIET EXPERIMENT GOING ON AMONG PRIMARY-CARE
PHYSICIANS, AND THE RESULTS ARE INTRIGUING
B Y D A V I D V O N D R E H L E / S E AT T L E

nowhere outside the pages of dickens is


there a more aptly named fellow than Garrison
Bliss. A trim, gray man, he has twinkling eyes
and a face lit by a smile of such authenticity that
it makes you think of Shaker furniture. But hes a
doctor, not a mystic. And hes smiling because he
believes he and his cousin have found the answer
to one of the toughest questions in health care.
The idea is deceptively simple: Pay frontline
doctors a xed monthly fee directly instead of
through the byzantine insurance bureaucracy.
Make the patient, rather than the paperwork,
the focus of the doctors day. The result will be
happier doctors, healthier patients and a striking reduction in wasted expense.
In one of the more intriguing experiments in
the medical industry, Qliance Health, the company Bliss co-founded with his cousin Dr. Erika
Bliss, 47, is applying this idea to managing the
health of roughly 35,000 patientsabout half of
them on Medicaid. If it can work for them in Seattle, they say, maybe it could work for everyone.
Photographs by Gregg Segal for TIME

How the Bliss cousins arrived at this notion


is a more complicated story. But its one worth
telling, because it says a lot about how the
U.S.normally adept at hooking up the buyers
and sellers of goods and servicesmanaged to
make such a mess of its medical economy. The
story starts with the fact that Garrison Bliss, 69,
wasnt always so happy.
He is a primary-care physician, and a career in
primary care has become a recipe for misery in
the U.S. Nearly a third of all frontline physicians
ages 35 to 49 expect to quit within the next ve
years, according to a 2012 survey by the Urban
Institute. Young healers who start with dreams of
being Marcus Welby often sour when they meet
the realities of the jobwhich can include seeing
patients every 11 minutes and having their performance assessed by how many MRIs they order.
Like so many others in his eld, Bliss came to
feel that he wasnt in the business of caring for
patients at all. His job was to feed payment codes
into the grinding machinery of the insurance

THE YEAR AHEAD | SOLUTIONS

companies, rushing from exam room to


exam room, ordering tests, making referrals, scheduling follow-up visits in which
the cycle would be repeated. He knew that a
proper exam, with time for counseling and
questions, can take 45 minutes or more. Yet
even a 15-minute session became a luxury.
There are no insurance codes for
cure, Bliss likes to say.
One day about 20 years ago, two of Blisss
colleagues announced that they were stepping off the treadmill to create a new kind
of practice. They invited a small number of
their wealthiest patients to become members of a premium health care group. For a
ve-gure annual fee, those patients would
have immediate access to the doctors. They
would be able to schedule appointments
on short notice and would never again
languish in a waiting room. Should they
need to see a specialist, their primary-care
doctor would be happy to accompany them
as an advocate and translator. This model,
which was soon emulated by upscale doctors across the country, came to be called
concierge medicine.
Coddling the rich was not Blisss bliss.
Still, he was intrigued. Could the same
idea work at a more affordable price?
What if, instead of charging $1,000 per
month for each membership, he charged
$65? He didnt have to decorate his clinic
like a Canyon Ranch spa or set up shop
on Seattles most expensive real estate.
If he brought down the overhead, would
ordinary people pay the equivalent of a
monthly cable bill for the satisfaction of
having a doctor who knew their histories
and cheerfully answered their questions?
Bliss launched an affordable primarycare practice, called Seattle Medical Associates, in 1997and soon had all the
patients he could handle. At last, he was
working for them. And he was happy.
Considering the health care model
Americans are accustomed to, it can be
hard to get your head around the approach
Bliss had come to call direct primary care.
But heres how it works: for a at fee every
month, patients have unlimited access to
their doctorin person and by phone or
emailfor routine things like checkups,
cuts and burns, infections, u shots and
skin exams, as well as chronic-condition
maintenance like blood tests for diabetes
or high cholesterol. Under the law, every
50

American is required to have medical


insurancebut direct-primary-care patients can seek less expensive policies,
because they require coverage only for
hospitalizations, surgeries and other specialized care.
It was working for Bliss, so when he
heard that his cousin Erika was miserable after just three years in primary care
(burned out, cooked, feeling like a failure
and thinking about getting out, as she
puts it), he shared some of his sunshine
with her. Every time I walk into the examination room, I feel like Im going to
a party! he sang over the phone. I think
this model Ive been doing has a lot of potential to change health care for the better.
Come help me scale it up.
Since then, theyve signed up previously
undreamed-of populations: big private employers like Expedia and Comcast, public
and industry employee unions like the one
for Seattle reghters andmost radical of
allat least 15,000 Medicaid patients.
The private companys results so far
suggest that the model is scaling up nicely.
Qliance now serves some 35,000 patients;
the cost of about half of them is paid by
the government through traditional and
expanded Medicaid programs. Treating a
wide variety of patientsyoung and old,
healthy and chronically sick, well-off and
poorQliance claims to be saving approximately 20% on the average cost of care

TH E E XI STI N G SYSTE M
RE WARDS E XPE NSIVE ,
I N VAS I VE AN D
COMPLICATE D SOLUTIONS .
DR. ERIKA BLISS, QLIANCE

compared with traditional fee-for-service


providers. The companys staff has tripled
over the past year, and Qliance is looking
to expand beyond Washington.
Unhappy primary-care docs from across
the country are streaming to Seattle to nd
out if some version of Qliance could be their
salvation. The American Academy of Family Physicians, which kept concierge medicine at arms length for years, is moving
quickly to embrace the direct-care concept.
And the promise of greater efciency and
better results has attracted the likes of Amazons Jeff Bezos and his fellow billionaire
Michael Dell to invest in Qliance.
All of which makes Bliss smile.

A NEW MODEL
concierge care was originally conceived before Obamacare, and it revved up
in response to the Great Recession as an
escape hatch for doctors eeing the status
quo. The existing fee-for-service system
pays caregivers a certain amount for each
test, diagnosis and procedurewhich,
according to critics, encourages overtreatment instead of preventive wellness care.
Qliance, along with a growing number of
similar operations, aims to be more than
an escape. It seeks to be the answer to the
quest of health care reformers: healthier patients at a lower cost. Fix the way
primary-care doctors are paid, the Blisses
argue, and we can cut unneeded tests, premature procedures and excessive ER visits.
The driving insight here is that primary care and specialized care have two
very different missions. Americans need
more of the first so theyll need less of
the second. And each requires a different
business model. Primary care should be
paid for directly, because thats the easiest and most efcient way to purchase a
service that everyone should be buying
and using. By contrast, specialty care and
hospitalizationswhich would be covered
by traditional insuranceare expenses we
all prefer to avoid. Car insurance doesnt
cover oil changes, and homeowners insurance doesnt cover house paint. So why
should insurance pay for your annual
checkup or your kids strep swab?
When people get good primary care,
their maladies are diagnosed more
quickly and can be managed before they
grow into crises. Fewer patients wind up
time December 29, 2014January 5, 2015

in expensive hospital beds. Emergency


rooms treat genuine emergencies, not
routine infections and minor injuries. Patients receive timely advice and encouragement from a trusted physician to shed
those pounds, change that diet, drink a
little less and exercise more. The fee-forservice insurance model discourages this
approach. It pays mainly for treating disease, not preventing it. Worse, it makes
the life of a primary caregiver so exhausting that students in medical schools and
nursing schools are avoiding the field
altogether. According to Colin West, a
co-director of the Mayo Clinics program
on physician well-being, the U.S. faces a
shortage of tens of thousands of primarycare doctorsat a moment when we need
them more than ever. In a denitive survey of third-year med students published
in the Journal of the American Medical Association, he found that only about 20% were
headed into primary care.
West was particularly dismayed by the
number of students who started medical
school with primary care as their ideal but
gave up by year three. They had gured out,
he explains, that the burdens of our health

NO WAITING, NO
SURPRISE FEES
Dr. Erika Bliss
tends to an
Expedia employee
at Qliances on-site
doctors ofce in
Bellevue, Wash.

care system roll downhill to the primary


caregivers. To make up for unpaid time
spent lling out forms, docs must see more
patients to generate more payment codes.
At the tangled heart of this dysfunction
is Medicare, which by its sheer size sets the
standards for insurance reimbursements.
Specialists dominate the panel that sets its
payment rates. Thus the system values surgeries, scans and other procedures more
than it values checkups and management
of existing conditions. West, a primarycare doc, explains it this way: If I put in an
hour with a patient, I will be reimbursed
for one examthe same payment I would
get for seeing that patient for 11 minutes.
Meanwhile, an ophthalmologist
might perform three cataract surgeries in
that same hour, and each surgery might
be reimbursed at twice the rate of my
exam. So that doctor is making six times
as much money.
And if the eye patient has questions after the surgery about her medicine or her
recovery, the specialists ofce is likely
to suggest that she consult with her primary caregiver. After all, neither doctor
gets reimbursed for answering questions

THE YEAR AHEAD | SOLUTIONS

on the phone, so the chore is often traded


like a hot potato. We say primary care is
critical to a healthier future, West says,
but in every way we show value, it is at
the lowest level.

DIRECT ACTION, IN ACTION


on a rare crystal day in seattle, i paid
a visit to the headquarters of the online
travel agent Expedia. For over a year, Expedia has paid Qliance a xed per-patient fee
to provide a direct-primary-care option for
HQ workers. Specialists and hospitalization are covered by traditional insurance.
Expedia was motivated to try direct
care for reasons that are familiar to business executives everywhere: health care
bills were skyrocketing, but employees
were not getting healthier. We had a
number of catastrophic illnesses in 2011
and a disturbing number of deaths12,
vice president for human resources Connie Symes tells me. We found Qliance
and their model of spending quality time
with patients addressed our need to get
employees involved in their own care.
Qliance opened a clinic in Expedias
building. The clinic is staffed by three
doctors and includes several exam rooms,
a small lab to perform routine tests, an
X-ray machine and a stock of commonly
prescribed generic medicines. Expedia employees zip from their desks to the doctors
ofce with little or no waiting time. New
patients spend 45 minutes elaborating their
medical histories; after that, most visits can
be handled in 15 to 30 minutes. Patients can
also reach their doctors by text and email.
At the end of last year, Expedia surveyed the staff, Symes says, and the response was emphatic. More than half the
employees had tried Qliance, and of those,
more than 95% said they were satised.
They love the doctors, Symes says. They
love the personal relationships theyre
forming. And although Expedia still
classies Qliance as an experiment, Symes
says direct primary care, with its emphasis
on prevention, is taking us in the right
direction on lowering costs.
Seems too good to be true, I tell Erika
Bliss, and she replies that she hears that a
lotbut thats because we havent seen,
from the inside, how much waste and inefciency is larded into the existing system.
With enough freedom, she says, a primary
52

caregiver can easily nd lots of ways to deliver superior health care at a lower price.
Bliss suggests that proper primary care
should cost an average of about $1,200 per
patient per year and will save signicantly
more than that in emergency care, specialist visits and treatment of chronic diseases.
The existing system is built around
diagnosing and treating complex cases. It
rewards expensive, invasive and complicated solutions. But patients dont want to
be complex cases, Bliss says. She cites a
famous study by the Institute of Medicine
that estimated that 30% of each health
care dollar is wasted in the U.S. While reformers struggle to bend the curve of rising costs by squeezing out the waste, we
just lop it off, she says.
While the results at Expedia are intriguing, the real test of direct primary
care began when Qliance became the
rst practice of its kind to join the Medicaid system. Medicaid patients can be a
challenging population because many of
them have untreated medical conditions
after years of inadequate health care.
Absorbing thousands into the Qliance
practiceat a reported cost to the government of about $700 per person per
yearhad made for a roller-coaster year.
Medicaid patients are promised the same
care as other Qliance customers.
One of those new patients is Jim Papadem, an out-of-work printing-press
operator in his mid-50s from Redmond,
Wash., who had long ignored his deteriorating health out of fear that the cost of
treatment would ruin him. I was pretty
sure I had diabetes, and it turns out I had
atrial brillation too, he says. At his rst
meeting with his new Qliance physician,
Dr. Randy Leggett, Papadem detailed his
many symptoms. Leggett dispatched
him to an eye specialist for treatment of
a diabetes-related condition. She also prescribed two generic drugs to manage his
blood sugar. Next came a referral to a cardiologist to treat the heart malfunction,
which Leggett now monitors routinely.
She calls me now and then to check up
on me at the end of the day, and when I
have questions, she is available to help me
connect the dots, Papadem said.
So where are the cost savings? For Papadem, proper primary care reduces the
likelihood of blindness, stroke and heart

failure. More immediately, the Qliance


patients now have an alternative to getting their care at the local emergency
room. According to a 2010 survey of ERs
in Washington State, the vast majority
of emergency-room complaints are not
actual emergencies. Instead, they involve
common maladies that are easily handled
by primary caregivers. With the average
cost of a childs ER visit running almost
$2,000and the average adult ER visit
more than $4,500Qliance more than
pays for itself every time it keeps a client
out of the ER.
Qliances large, diverse patient group
makes it the rst direct-care rm in a position to compile compelling statistics on
the promise of direct care. What will tip
the scales for us is when we can produce
hard data on savings and outcomes, Bliss
says hopefully. That takes some time, but
the numbers are rming up. If we can
show that we are getting 15% to 30% of
the costs out by using a model that doctors
like and patients want, the whole system is
going to ip pretty quickly.
Centene Corp. is a Fortune 500 company hired by Washington State to manage its Medicaid plans. Jay Fathi, CEO of
Centenes Washington afliate, tells me
that we already have evidence to show
us that they are doing a good job. Condent that the direct-primary-care model
has legs, Centene has joined the growing
roster of Qliance investors.

SO WHATS THE CATCH?


of course, theres a catchat least
in the short term. Docs on the treadmill
are often responsible for 2,000, 2,500 or
even 3,000 patients each. Direct-primarycare doctors serve far fewer patients. In a
nation where there is already a shortage
of primary caregivers, this would seem to
disqualify direct care as a mass solution.
Its a trend that will probably grow
a bit, but I think there is probably some
ceiling to it, says Ceci Connolly, managing director of the Health Research Institute at consulting giant PwC. Connolly
foresees direct care as one part of a wider
mix of patient-directed primary-care options, from drugstore clinics and Weight
Watchers outlets to wearable monitors
and digital apps.
But leaders of the direct-care
time December 29, 2014January 5, 2015

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Somewhere in America, Siemens is building answers that
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siemens.com/answers

THE YEAR AHEAD | SOLUTIONS

movement argue that in the longer term,


their model can solve the shortage of
frontline doctors. By giving primary caregivers a good living doing work they can
love, direct care encourages young physicians to follow their heart.
On a recent visit to Wichita, Kans., I
met a young doctor who is doing that. Josh
Umbehr, 33, was an aspiring primary-care
doctor at the University of Kansas when,
like many others, he grew horried by the
fee-for-service system. It was crazy, he
said. Insurance paid more for a prostate
exam if it was done on a separate visit from
a checkup. So the patient would have to
come in twice. Medicare would pay for
cleaning out earwaxbut only one ear
per visit. You had to schedule a second appointment for the other ear.
Then he discovered direct care. As the
son of a garbage collector, he understood
the idea of one price for unlimited service.
With classmate Doug Nunamaker, 34,
54

THE DOCTOR
WILL (ALWAYS)
SEE YOU
Inside Expedias
headquarters is a
Qliance outpost,
which employees
can use anytime
they like

TO SEE MORE
SOLUTIONS GO TO
time.com/solutionsforamerica

Umbehr launched a moderately priced


clinic called Atlas MD. The idea caught
on enough that they recently hired a third
doctor. Now they care for about 1,800
patients at an average monthly price of
about $50 each.
An entrepreneurial dynamo, Umbehr
paints a skys-the-limit future in which
primary care is transformed into medicines most valuable role. To hear him
tell it, hes already living that dream, seeing an average of ve patients per day
with other interactions by phone, text
and emailwhile earning $200,000 to
$240,000 per year. (The national average
for primary-care physicians is well below
$200,000.)
His in-house pharmacy, run out of a
closet, saves patients hundreds of dollars
per year on medsa major selling point
for those who blanch at his monthly fee.
Take the uninsured mother who could not
imagine paying $120 each month to cover
herself, her husband and their two kids.
Umbehr asked if she was taking any medications, and she said that was the problem:
her prescriptions cost $138 per month.
Umbehr buys the generic version wholesale for $1.55. I told her her membership
would cover the drugs. We eat the buck
and a half as a cost of doing business, and
she gets primary care for her family. At the
end of each month, shes 18 bucks ahead.
When people say this is going to
worsen the physician shortage, Umbehr
says, No. The current system is worsening the physician shortage. The ship is
already sinking. We probably talk to 10
doctors per week who are burned out, going bankrupt, ready to retire years before
they ought to. And when they see they can
take better care of their patients and never
deal with insurance companies again, and
earn $210,000, $220,000, $250,000 per year,
youre going to see physicians ocking.
Wouldnt that be something? After
so many years of dire forecasts, of blueribbon panels and expert commissions,
of alphabet agencies and battles on Capitol Hillwouldnt it be amazing if the
health care revolution nally arrived in
the form of simple family doctors offering better care in exchange for a happier
life? Its worth a try, because if it works, an
awful lot of people will be wearing that

blissful smile.
time December 29, 2014January 5, 2015

ONE AUTO DEALERS EFFECT ON HIS CITY BEGAN WITH A BUILDING.


FROM THERE, IT KEPT BUILDING AND BUILDING AND BUILDING.

Terry Gilmore Dealer Principal,


Paradise Chevrolet Cadillac
Temecula, California

First came a brand new Boys and Girls Club. Then


another. Followed by two more. Soon, high schools,
hospitals, police departments, veteran organizations
and beyond all benefited from the enormous
charitable contributions of Terry Gilmore. So much
so, his generosity has helped lift up an entire city.
Everyone at Ally thanks and congratulates Mr. Gilmore
for inspiring us to better our own communities.

Join us in celebrating these amazing auto dealers.


allydealerheroes.com | #AllyDealerHeroes
2014 Ally Financial. All rights reserved.

THE YEAR AHEAD | ENVIRONMENT

WATER WORLD
A MASSIVE MIDDLE EASTERN DESALINATION PLANT COULD
SHOW HOW TO QUENCH A CROWDED PLANETS GROWING THIRST
PHOTOGRAPHS BY SPENCER LOWELL FOR TIME

FRESH SUPPLY
The Jebel Ali plant
in the United Arab
Emirates is the
worlds biggest
desalination facility

CLEAN MACHINES
Seawater undergoes reverse
osmosis, in which
high pressure forces
the water through
membranes that
remove impurities

58

Its in your clothes and your


food, in the appliances in your
home and the electricity that
powers them. Its in television
and the Internet and the air. Its
in usor more precisely, we
are it, given that about 60% of
the human body is made of it.
To call water the basis of life

doesnt give it enough credit,


yet we often treat water as an
afterthought. Until its gone.
Already, 1.2 billion people,
or nearly a sixth of the worlds
population, live in areas aficted by water scarcity, and
that gure could grow to 1.8 billion by 2025. Globally, the rate
of water withdrawalwater
diverted from an existing surface or underground source
increased at more than twice

the rate of population growth


over the past century. Climate
change could intensify desertication in already dry parts of the
planet. The world is projected to
hold 9 billion people or more by
2050and theyll all be thirsty.

So in 2015 and beyond, the


challenge of water scarcity will
only grow, which could lead to
global instability. But it doesnt
have to be that way. Efciency
can stretch existing supplies.
(In the U.S., overall water use
has fallen even as the population has grown.) And an old
technology, ocean desalination,
is getting a fresh look as hightech plants churn out millions of

gallons of freshwater a day. The


Jebel Ali plant in the United Arab
Emirates, shown in this photo
essay, can produce 564 million
gal. (2.13 billion L) of water a
day from the sea, a sign of the
sheer scale that may be needed
in a drier future. The truth is
that we can do anything with
waterexcept go on without it.

DRINK UP
Water produced
by the plant is
tested for quality
before it is sent out
for consumption

BRYAN WALSH

59

STEAM ENGINE
Heat is the heart
of desalination.
Seawater travels
as steam through
these pipes to
evaporation units,
where salt is
left behind

T HE

NE W

RUL E S

OF

POWER
E L E C T I O N S

C I V I L

R I G H T S

E C O N O M Y
G E O P O L I T I C S

Photograph by Brooks Kraft for TIME

IOWA CALLING
Clinton all but
announced her
presidential bid
in the Hawkeye
State this fall

THE YEAR AHEAD | POWER

UP, UP
AND AWAY
HILLARY CLINTON PREPARES A 2016 CAMPAIGN ON
PROMISES OF UPWARD MOBILITY FOR THE MIDDLE CLASS
B Y H A L E Y S W E E T L A N D E D W A R D S/ L I T T L E R O C K , A R K .

it wasnt until this fall that hillary


Clinton began to show her hand. Her book
tour was winding down, the midterm elections were gearing up, and her paid speaking events, for which she charged up to
$300,000 a pop, had passed from initial curiosity into the realm of postmodern performance artspectacles, like Andy Warhol
prints, remarked on mainly for their cost.
But as she embarked on the campaign
trail for Democratic candidates, speaking
gratis to voters, she dropped the milquetoast observations about American foreign
policy and focused instead on a single, overarching message: the economic frustration
of the American middle class.
Working people havent gotten a raise
in a decade, and it feels harder and harder
to get ahead, she said in Pennsylvania, in
what had become a typical stump speech.
From California to Massachusetts, she told
voters to choose politicians who were on
your side, to demand a fair shot and a
fresh start, to make their vote about upward mobility. By the time she got to New
York, she was practically preaching. If you
work hard and do your part, you and your
family are supposed to be able to have a better life, she roared.
If that rhetoric sounds familiar, thats
because it is. Barack Obama made on
your side and fair shot the two dominant clichs of the 2012 election. They,
in turn, owed a lot to Clintons husband,
the 42nd President, who made the work64

ing hard and playing by the rules trope a


huge crowd pleaser in the 1990s. Indeed,
the most remarkable part of Clintons new
message was that it wasnt new at all. The
most talked-about presidential candidate
who is not yet a candidate had simply seized
at last upon the issue that has dominated
every election in the past generationand
campaign professionals across the country
took note.
It is, after all, good politics. Despite the
recent growth of the economy, the drop
in oil prices and some qualied optimism
about wages, the vast majority of Americans
have yet to feel so much as a gentle breeze of
economic recovery. The median American
income this year was about 6% lower than
it was in 2000, if adjusted for ination, and
two-thirds of Americans are now living on
paychecks that are 15% to 35% smaller than
they were in 2002, according to Robert Shapiro, a former economic adviser to President
Bill Clinton and co-founder of Sonecon, an
economic advisory and analysis rm. Most
people are getting poorer every year, says
Shapiro. Theres nothing like this on record. It explains our current politics in a
way that no other data explain it.

THE NEW RULE DEMOCRATS ECONOMIC


MESSAGE WILL HAVE TO FLY WITH POPULISTS TOO

But if delivering a couple dozen


speeches about the broken economy isnt
political rocket science, guring out a way
to convince voters that youre the one to x
it just might be. Clinton, who is expected to
announce her candidacy in early 2015, has
her work cut out for her. If shes going to
run on a message of economic prosperity
for the middle class, she will need a persuasive policy agenda and a rock-solid political
strategy to convince voters that she is, or
could be, the new hero of the middle class.
american voters have been promised
the moon before, and 2016 will be no different. In the next few months, all the Republican presidential hopefuls will present their
lists of policy xes, including old standbys
like more domestic energy, less regulation
and lower taxes. Obama, for his part, will
continue to push his agenda, including a
higher minimum wage and an expanded
Earned Income Tax Credit, a tax refund designed to reward working families.
Clinton, who will want to differentiate herself from Obama, will probably lift
a handful of policies from the tried-andtrue Democratic handbook, like funding
more infrastructure projects, while loudly
championing a few particularly innovative ideas of her own. William Galston, a
fellow at the Brookings Institution and a
former domestic-policy adviser to Clintons
husband, suggests, for example, creating
an online public universitythe National

P R E V I O U S PA G E S : C O R B I S; T H I S PA G E : B R O O K S K R A F T C O R B I S F O R T I M E

of the bottom 20% of Americans by 23.6%.


This shows the importance of policy, he
said. Then he added pointedly, We can do
this again. The subtext was clear to everyone present: all we need to return to past
glory is a bit of that Clinton touch.

Online University, he calls itwhere anyone could get a degree, in their own time,
for free. Others propose federally backed
computer-manufacturing apprenticeships,
free IT classes and streamlined regulations
to make it easier to start small businesses.
But while some voters are moved by policy
ideas, Clintons success in both the primaries and a general election will hinge on
whether she is able to give a good sermon
about something more important: hope.
Cue hometown boy Bill Clinton. In
mid-November, he offered a 2016 campaign
preview of his own in a speech at his presidential library in Little Rock, Ark. When
I took ofce, the distribution of American
prosperity looked astonishingly like it does
now, he told a group of supporters. But by
the end of the decade, we had three surpluses and the fourth surplus we submitted to
Congress when I left. The Clinton Administration, he said, created 50% more jobs than
Reagans, moved 100 times as many people
up from poverty and increased the incomes
time December 29, 2014January 5, 2015

ECHO CHAMBER
Clintons
message to the
middle class
sounds a lot
like the one she
took to New
Hampshire voters
in 2007

that is, of course, a story line that


rankles Clintons rivals, both on the Republican side and among the contingent of
liberal Democrats who would prefer to see
a populist candidate like Elizabeth Warren snag the nomination. Both groups take
issue with the narrative. The boom in the
90s, they believe, was not the result of presidential policy so much as good timing: the
birth of the commercial Internet drove productivity and wages higher at a time when
the U.S.s slowly declining manufacturing
sector had yet to hit rock bottom. But from
there, the two sides strategies diverge.
Republicans point out that voters
memories of the Clinton Administration
are hardly all roses. Its amusing that the
Clinton allies rely heavily on spinning any
positives they can from the 1990s while
avoiding the baggage that her campaign
will carry from their past scandals, said
Tim Miller, who runs the conservative PAC
America Rising.
Liberal Democrats are already busy discrediting the idea that Clinton, who is more
closely associated with Wall Street than factory oors, should be cast as a warrior for
the little guy at all. They point out that in
their quarter-century in the public spotlight, the Clintons have raised more than a
billion dollars from corporations and business elites, and that nearly all the biggest
nancial rms have already, albeit tacitly,
pledged Clinton their support. Forty-four
percent of all voters in Iowa thought Clintons close ties to Wall Street were a disadvantage, according to an October poll.
Clinton and her close circle are not
oblivious to the problem. Aides patiently
explain that Clinton donates her famously
large speaking fees to her familys foundation and that the differences between her
views and those of the populist wing of the
party are more rhetorical than actual. But
the debate foreshadows the ght to come
when Clinton hopes to reclaim the spirit of
the struggling middle class and that same
group of voters goes shopping for a candidate who can actually make a difference.
65

THE YEAR AHEAD | POWER

MR. SUNSHINE
JEB BUSH HAS BEEN OUT OF POLITICS FOR NEARLY A DECADE,
BUT HE THINKS HE KNOWS HOW TO FIX THE COUNTRY
BY MICHAEL SCHERER

at times like this, joy is not the most


obvious theme to build a presidential
campaign around. So it is all the more surprising that Jeb Bush cannot stop talking
about that most delightful and eeting of
human emotions.
The 61-year-old second son of George
and Barbara Bush likes to say that the matter of running for President comes down
to his inner spiritswhether I can do it
with joy in my heart. As 2014 came to a
close, all signs pointed to a long season of
merriment. His interview schedule quickened, and he began positioning himself
as a candidatecreating a political committee to raise money, announcing the
writing of a new e-book and planning the
release of old public records. His message
to the enormous network of Bush donors,
whom he has spent a year meeting: Dont
commit to anyone else. You can tell he has
been on a big stage for decades, said one
donor whom Bush met in South Carolina.
Hes not afraid to tell you what he thinks.
And what he thinks is that after 15
years of bad news and divisive politics, the
nation just might be ready for some Sunshine State uplift. We are moping around
like we are France, he said on Dec. 1 in an
address to corporate leaders. The crisis of
opportunity is, we are not seizing the moment. We are not aspiring to be young and
dynamic again.
As Bush sees it, the solutions are right in
front of us, if only we can embrace the glee
and change: reform the immigration system to ood the nation with brilliant entrepreneurs from abroad, open the taps of
domestic energy production, kick the K-12
education system in the rear and x the
66

tax, regulatory and entitlement systems.


Relentless optimism, of course, is not a
novel pose for a presidential contender, but
it is hard to remember a candidate so committed to a psychological analysis of the
political landscape this early in the cycle.
To his own party, the shrinks critique has
a neat corollary. You dont do well in bringing people together if you are carping, criticizing, turning around and saying you are
not as good as me, he said in one interview.
That line of attackwhich moves the
ght away from ideological differences
could serve him well in what is certain to
be a brutal primary against a pack of politicians far more conservative, religious
and attuned to the ever changing grassroots id. Its also a message that is likely
to defang his most fearsome rival for the
Establishment crown, New Jersey Gover-

TH E C R I S I S O F
O PP O RTU N IT Y I S ,
WE ARE NOT
S E I Z I N G TH E M O M E NT.
F O R M E R F LO R I DA
GOVERNOR JEB BUSH

nor Chris Christie, whose spirit animal is


more carnivorous than cuddly. [Bush] is
going to be a very effective candidate if he
runs, because he is going to talk about the
future without backing down or pandering to the Tea Party side, explains Charlie
Black, a Republican lobbyist who has been
involved in presidential politics since 1976.
Is the country ready for another general
election between a Clinton and a Bush?
Jebs family, long wary of taking on the personal burden of another campaign, now
nds solace where others see alarm. At an
event in October, George W. Bush pitched
his brothers candidacy before a group of
skeptical donors. Whats the difference
if its Bush-Clinton-Bush-Obama-Clinton
or Bush-Clinton-Bush-Obama-Bush? he
said. In other words, as long as Hillary
Clinton is running, there is no reason for
Jeb to hold back.
Far less clear is whether there are enough
Republicans left in early-primary states
who will put joyful promise before their
deep feelings of grievance and need for reform. Bush last ran for public ofce in 2002,
long before conservatives, libertarians and
the Tea Party decided that his familys tradition of Big Government conservatism was
the problem, not the solution. As Bush has
wisely observed, his best route to victory
in 2016 may require him to lose the fevered
primary-state policy arguments while still
nding a way to get more votes.
Thats a tough circle to square if all you
are working with are facts and figures.
But joy exists outside the realm of what is.
Thats why we all seek it: to make something else of who we are. with report
ing by zeke j. miller/washington
Photograph by Marco Grob for TIME

SECOND SON
The former
Florida governor
has begun to
explore a 2016
White House run

THE YEAR AHEAD | POWER

2015 POWER CALENDAR


WHOSE
ECONOMY
WILL GROW?

JANUARY

Obama visits India

PROJECTED CHANGE IN
REAL GDP IN 2015

W
MAY

The U.K. holds parliamentary


elections. Polls suggest a
hung Parliament is the likely
outcome
W

7.1%
China

6.4%

JUNE

The G-7 summit takes place


at Schloss Elmau in Germany

India

3.1%
U.S.
W

2.7%

JULY

U.K.

The current deadline for an


agreement in the nuclear
talks with Iran

2.4%
Canada
The expecting royals step out in New York City on Dec. 7

W
SEPTEMBER

Pope Francis makes his rst


papal visit to the U.S.

A SPARE HEIR
B Y C AT H E R I N E M AY E R

SORRY, GEORGE, THERES A NEW ROYAL IN TOWN

OCTOBER

First Thai elections since


a military coup ousted the
democratically elected
government last May

W
NOVEMBER

The U.N. Climate Change


Conference seeks to forge a
legally binding agreement
Tenth meeting of the G-20
summit, in Antalya, Turkey

68

The Duke and Duchess of Cambridge dont


know or arent divulging the sex of their second
child, due in April, though they gently quashed
rumors of twins with the wording of their
October 2014 announcement that a baby was
on the way. Since then, bookmakers have done
brisk business taking bets on the babys name.
Among the top contenders: James, Arthur and
Elizabeth. The childwhatever its calledwill
be the new fourth in line to the thrones of the
U.K. and 15 other realms, displacing the current
fourth, Prince Harry. Meanwhile, great-granny
Queen Elizabeth II turns 89 in the same month
the baby is expected. One of the key jobs of
royalty is simply to turn up and look interested.
Banks of cameras will undoubtedly await the
birth outside the hospital, ensuring the newest
Windsor gets straight to work.

1.7%
Spain

1.5%
Germany

1.4%
Brazil

1%
France

0.8%
Italy

0.8%
Japan
Source: World Economic Outlook
(October 2014)

time December 29, 2014January 5, 2015

R OYA L S , O B A M A , P O P E : G E T T Y I M A G E S; R O U H A N I , S C H L O S S E L M A U : E PA ; C H A N - O C H A : R E U T E R S

2.3%
South Africa

SUPREMES WATCH

EUROPE
PLAYS OUT ITS
ANXIETIES

B Y M AYA R H O D A N

A F F O R D A B L E C A R E A C T: R E U T E R S; S A M E - S E X M A R R I A G E , P R E G N A N C Y: G E T T Y I M A G E S; F R E E D O M O F S P E E C H : F A C E B O O K ; R E L I G I O U S F R E E D O M : A P ; I L L U S T R AT I O N B Y D I E T E R B R A U N

From Obamacare to religious freedom, several charged issues will make their way
back to the U.S. Supreme Court in 2015. By the time the term ends this summer,
we could have a denitive ruling on whether Chief Justice John Roberts court is the
conservative juggernaut many believe it to be.

B Y C AT H E R I N E M AY E R

Affordable
Care Act

Same-sex
marriage

Pregnancy
discrimination

Freedom of
speech

Religious
freedom

President
Obamas
signature
health care
law narrowly
avoided
reversal the
last time it
came before
the high
court. It will
face another
test in King
v. Burwell,
this time in
the form of a
challenge to
the portion of
the law that
lets individuals
benet from
tax subsidies
when
purchasing
insurance
through
the federal
exchange.

Its been a
little over a
year since
the court
granted samesex couples
access
to federal
benets, but
ambiguity over
whether LGBT
Americans
have the
constitutional
right to marry
may lead the
court to revisit
the issue.
Most federal
courts have
opted to allow
gay marriage,
but a handful
of challenges
from state
attorneys
general could
force the
courts hand.

For nearly
three
decades, the
Pregnancy
Discrimination
Act has
ensured job
protection
for pregnant
women. The
limitations of
that measure
are being
tested in
Young v.
United Parcel
Service,
a case
that could
determine
whether
women indeed
have the right
to lighter
or different
workloads
during
pregnancy.

Is a threat
any less
threatening if
you post it in
a Facebook
status update,
then later
insist its a rap
lyric? Thats
the key issue
in Elonis v.
United States,
in which the
court will
examine
what exactly
constitutes
threatening
language. The
court may
also take up
whether or not
the posters
intent should
be taken into
consideration.

The Hobby
Lobby decision
in 2014
established
that
corporations
could have
religious
leanings.
Well see
how far the
Roberts Court
is willing to
go to protect
religious
expression in
Holt v. Hobbs,
which will
determine
whether
a Muslim
prisoner has
the right to
grow a beard
against prison
regulations.

its sometimes hard to remember that the European Union grew


out of a desire to avoid conict.
These days the E.U. itself is a ash
point. In 2015 at least six of the organizations 28 membersEstonia,
Finland, Poland, Portugal, Spain
and the U.K.will hold national
elections that could affect their
relationships with, and within, the
Union. These contestsas well as
departmental and regional elections in France, provincial polls in
Holland and a key state election in
Germanywill give anti-Europe
parties a stage on which to perform.
Many of them are attempting to
ride the shock waves triggered by
Europes economic woes to electoral
victory. Even Britain, which is not
part of the euro zone, has seen its
anti-E.U. U.K. Independence Party
surge as voters worry about citizens
from continental Europe taking up
the right to work in the U.K. Prime
Minister David Cameron promises
a referendum on the countrys relationship with the E.U. if his Conservative Party wins the May 7 general
election. That could make Britain
the rst to break with the E.U.but
it probably wont be the last.

THE NEW RULE


MINIMUM-WAGE WARS

EUROPE AN UNION
SKEPTICS WILL HAVE THE UPPER HAND AS THE
CONTINENTS ECONOMY CONTINUES TO SAG

BEYOND JAN. 1*
JAN. 1, 2015
CURRENT

A CLOSER LOOK AT THE STATES WHERE PAY WILL


RISE IN 2015 (THE FEDER AL MINIMUM IS $7.25)

$10.50

$10
$9.00

$9.00

$8.75

6
ALASKA

CONN.
ARK.

D.C.
DEL.

MD.
HAWAII

MINN.
MASS.

N.Y.
NEB.

S.D.
R.I.

W.VA.
VT.

*DEL. 6/1/15; D.C. and MD. 7/1/15; MINN. 8/1/15 (from left: large and small employers); N.Y. and W.VA. 12/31/15. Sources: NCSL; DOL

71

THE YEAR AHEAD | POWER

EXHIBIT
NO. 1
Lawmakers
want tools
for guring
out that
gummy bears
like these
contain THC

EXHIBIT
NO. 2
Parents worry
that children
will accidentally ingest
marijuanainfused candy

POTS
CANDY
CRISIS
EDIBLES ARE THROWING
A WRENCH IN THE
LEGAL-WEED MOVEMENT
B Y K AT Y S T E I N M E T Z

Walk into a recreational pot


shop, and the glass jars of
Cannabis indica and sativa
often share shelf space with a
far more familiar sight: chocolates, cookies and gummy
candies. These THC-infused
edibles are a key sector of the
burgeoning industry, accounting for an estimated 45% of
Colorados pot market. But
the mind-altering products
can look the same as regular snacks, and lawmakers
and parents are concerned
about them ending up in
childrens hands.
Regulators setting up new
marijuana markets in Oregon
and Alaska, as well as those
maintaining the market in
Washington, will be watching
closely to see how Colorado
solves the edibles problem.
Ofcials there are struggling
to implement a law requiring
all edibles to be shaped,
stamped, colored or other-

wise marked so that theyre


identiable even out of their
packages. Finding a way to
do that for products ranging
from pastries to soda has
been a challenge. A working
group convened to decide
the detailslike whether
all edibles should be bright
green or shaped like a marijuana leafcouldnt agree
on a solution, meaning that
lawmakers and the states
marijuana-enforcement division will be left to gure it out
in the coming months.
In 2014, Colorados largest pediatric ER treated 14
kids who accidentally ingested
marijuana; some were sedated enough to slip into a coma.
That number has been rising
since 2008, when the ER began keeping track. We need
to really dive into the prob-

lem, says Michael DiStefano


of Childrens Hospital Colorado. Once they come out of
the childproof packaging, you
cant tell a difference.
That has led some ofcials
to call for banning edibles
that could be appealing to
kids. But opponents of tighter
regulation argue that having a
range of products keeps people from buying on the black
market, and they question
whether banning or altering
certain edibles will have any
effect. Theres no evidence
thats going to reduce the
number of accidental ingestions beyond the imaginations
of some vocal groups, says
Ian Barringer, who runs a
marijuana-testing lab in Boulder. Parents, he says, need to
focus on keeping edibles out
of sight and out of reach.
Expect the ght to get
even messier. State representative Jonathan Singer, who
wrote the edibles-regulation
law, says there will likely be a
push to repeal the measure.

THE NEW RULE

COLOR ADOS LE ARNING CURVE


WILL AFFECT OTHER STATES DECISIONS ON POT

BADGE,
GUN ...
CAMERA?
BY JOSH SANBURN

The lack of video


evidence in last
summers fatal police
shooting of Michael
Brown in Ferguson,
Mo., has accelerated a
movement to equip cops
with cameras on their
uniforms. Experts say
more than 5,000 of the
nations 18,000 police
departments are now
using or testing the
devicesincluding bigcity forces in Los Angeles,
New York City and
Washingtonas part of
an effort to mend often
frayed ties with citizens.
Since Ferguson, Vievu,
the largest manufacturer
of the cameras, says the
number of departments
testing its devices is up
70%, while monthly
sales are at record
highs. In 10, 15 years,
says Arthur Lurigio, a
criminal-justice expert
at Loyola University
Chicago, I think well be
talking about the camera
in the way that today
we talk about the baton
or the badge.
THE NEW RULE COPS WILL BECOME
MOBILE-SURVEILL ANCE DE VICES

AFTER THE ALTAR


THE NEXT FRONTIER FOR LGBT RIGHTS IS EQUAL TREATMENT AT
HOME, WORK AND IN THE PUBLIC SQUARE
B Y K AT Y S T E I N M E T Z

The battle over LGBT rights


has moved from the chapel to
the ofce. On Dec. 10, Senator
Jeff Merkley, a Democrat from
Oregon, announced plans to
turbo-charge the Employment
Non-Discrimination Act, a
federal bill that would protect
lesbian, gay, bisexual and
transgender Americans from
workplace discrimination. A
version of that legislation has
failed to pass in almost every
Congress since 1994. Rather
than trying again in 2015,
Merkley will introduce a bill
that covers not only employment but also housing and
public accommodations. It
cant be right that people are
thrown out of their rental
housing because of their LGBT
status, Merkley says.
Polls have shown that
most Americans believe
its already illegal to re
someoneor refuse to serve
them or turn them down as
rentersbecause of their
sexual orientation. But its not,
at least not under any explicit
federal law. Just 18 states and

G U M M Y B E A R S : A L A M Y; C A M E R A : I L L U S T R AT I O N B Y D I E T E R B R A U N F O R T I M E ; PA R A D E : E R I K P E N D Z I C H R E X U S A

Washington, D.C., have LGBT


non-discrimination laws on
the books. (Three other states
have laws that cover only sexual orientation.) That means
in 14 states, same-sex couples
could get hitched on Saturday
and it would then be legal to
re them on Monday, says
Sarah McBride, an expert on
LGBT issues at the Center for
American Progress, a liberal
think tank.
Merkleys bill is unlikely
to go anywhere in the GOPcontrolled Senate, where
critics have argued that such
a measure could impinge on
religious freedom. But the ght
will also be waged in statehouses in places like Florida
and Utah. In Virginia, delegate
Marcus Simon is testing landlords treatment of ostensibly
gay and straight people inquiring about the same rental property, to rebut opponents of a
housing-protection bill. I want
to make it difcult for them
to hide behind that argument
that this kind of discrimination doesnt exist, he says.

MARCHING ON
Participants
ferry balloons in
an LGBT-pride
parade down
Fifth Avenue in
New York City

73

THE YEAR AHEAD | POWER

AN UNEASY
PATH ABROAD
IAN BREMMER ARGUES THAT THOUGH THE U.S. IS STILL THE WORLDS
LEADING ECONOMY, ITS GEOPOLITICAL CLOUT ISNT WHAT IT USED TO BE

america is not in decline. the u.s.


will have the worlds most formidable
military for the foreseeable future. Its
economy remains the worlds largest,
and its recovery will probably gather
more steam in 2015. Its workforce is not
aging nearly as quickly as that of Europe, Japan or China. No country has a
greater capacity for technological innovation. Almost all the worlds biggest
tech companies are based in the U.S. For
next-generation cloud computing, articial intelligence, advanced manufacturing and nanotechnology, bet on the U.S.
America has an entrepreneurial culture
that celebrates not simply what has been
accomplished but also whats next. There
is every reason to be condent that America has a bright 21st century future.
But its foreign policy is a different
story. American power is on the wane,
a process that will accelerate in 2015.
Power is a measure of ones ability to
force others to do things they wouldnt
otherwise do, and there are now more
governments with enough resources and
self-condence to shrug off requests and
demands from Washington. There was
never a golden age of U.S. power when
an American President could count on
other governments to do as he asked. But
there are several reasons the U.S. is now
less able to build coalitions, forge trade
agreements, win support for sanctions,
broker international compromise or persuade others to follow its lead into conict
than at any other time since the end of
World War II.
First, there are a growing number of
emerging powers that, although they cant
74

change the global status quo on their own,


have more than enough power to ignore
what America wantsand even to block
U.S. plans they dont like. For example,
Washington can still tell governments of
developing countries that access to capital
from Western-dominated lending institutions like the IMF and the World Bank
depends on democratic or free-market
reforms. But the strongest emerging markets need capital less than they used to,
and some of them are creating their own
lending and investment institutions.
The BRICS countriesBrazil, Russia,
India, China and South Africain 2014
launched a $50 billion development bank,
an alternative to Washington-based lenders. The BRICS bank cant by itself end
U.S. dominance of the global financial
system. But add the China Development
Bank, the Brazilian Development Bank
(BNDES) and an expanding list of important regional lending institutions,
and the worlds borrowers are no longer
quite so dependent on Western lenders. The numbers tell the story. In 2013
the World Bank disbursed $52.6 billion.
The same year, Brazils BNDES invested
$85 billion, and its Chinese equivalent
extended loans valued at $240 billion.
While emerging powers awaken,
Washingtons relations with its traditional allies are not what they used to be. It was

THE NEW RULE

GLOBALIZATION WILL PROMOTE


NEITHER AMERICAN VALUES NOR BEST PRACTICES

inevitable that as the Cold War receded


further into history, Americans and Europeans would have less in common. Both
are unhappy with Vladimir Putin and
his assault on Ukraine, but Russia is not
the Soviet Union. Its not a global military
power. European nations have far more
economic exposure to Russia than America does, and Washington needs Putins
help to get things done in other regions,
most notably in the Middle East. Though
the U.S. and Europe have coordinated their
sanctions on Russia so far, were more likely in 2015 to see disagreements over how
best to handle Putin.
Nor has it helped transatlantic relations
that the U.S. National Security Agency was
reportedly listening to German Chancellor Angela Merkels phone calls and collecting Internet data, raising fears across
Europe that U.S. information-technology
rms have given Americas spy agencies
deep access to European secrets. Last February, Merkel took the extraordinary step
of calling for a European Internet, one
walled off from the U.S. So much for free
movement through cyberspace.
Anti-American anger in many European countrieswhich rose sharply during the presidency of George W. Bush, then
eased with the election of Barack Obama
was tested by the spy revelations. It will
be tested again by the Senates recently released torture report, which embarrassed
a number of European governments that
reportedly provided black sitessecret
U.S. prisonsfor use by the CIA. This
can only make it more difcult for the
next U.S. President to win support from
European leaders for anything that wary

I L L U S T R AT I O N B Y O L I V E R M U N D AY F O R T I M E

European voters might not like. The countrys relations with Britain will suffer in
years to come as it becomes clear that the
U.K. will sharply reduce the role it plays in
Europe or exit the E.U. altogether. Britain
has given Washington much of its inuence inside the E.U., and a U.K. outside Europe would weaken the alliance.
Its also inevitable that the rise of China will fray U.S. ties with allies in Asia
as the governments of these countries
hedge their bets on U.S. staying power
in the region. An ally like Japan knows
that Washington is now less likely to intervene in its security disputes because
the American public wont support a
lasting U.S. commitment to solve what
are perceived to be other peoples problems. A Pew Research poll conducted in

TH E U . S . W I LL
E XE RC IS E LES S P OWE R
I N TH E C O M I N G
Y E ARS I N N E ARLY E VE RY
REG I ON OF TH E WO RLD

late 2013 found that for the rst time in


the half-century that Americans have
been asked this question, a majority of
respondents said the U.S. should mind
its own business internationally and let
other countries get along the best they
can on their own. Just 38% disagreed.
More recent polls tell the same story. In
a democracy, no President can sustain
an expensive, ambitious foreign policy
without reliable public support. In the
U.S., this support is no longer there, and
the world knows it. Short of another
large-scale terrorist attack on U.S. soil,
its hard to imagine anything that can
restore public appetite for a more assertive foreign policy anytime soon.
For all these reasons, the U.S. will exercise less power in the coming years in
nearly every region of the world, and we
can expect a de-Americanization of the
international system. But there are other forces at work as well. Some countries
will make a more determined move
away from reliance on the dollar. As
the worlds primary reserve currency,
the dollar has served for decades as the
vital asset for central banks and commercial transactions of all kinds. Dollar dominance offers the U.S. important
advantages. Its stability ensures that
the country remains the safest port in
any storm, attracting investment that
keeps U.S. interest rates relatively low,
despite the expansion of the national
debt. It helps U.S. companies avoid the
transaction costs that come with currency conversion and allows Washington to pay its debts by simply printing
more money.
But dollar dominance is on the wane
as China, Russia, Brazil and others move
to denominate more of their commerce
in other currencies. Five years ago, China
conducted trade almost entirely in dollars. Nearly a quarter of that trade is now
settled in renminbi.
At the same time, China has announced the creation of an Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, an
institution that will not require borrowing nations to uphold the environmental and labor standards that are
conditions of help from Western capitals. China has also created a $40 billion Silk Road Fund that is designed to
75

THE YEAR AHEAD | POWER

76

HOW BREMMER
SEES THE WORLD
B Y B R YA N W A L S H

CAN VLADIMIR PUTIN HANDLE


RUSSIAS ECONOMIC MESS?
He absolutely can, in the
time frame most people are
concerned about. Theres no
question that the Russian
economy is imploding, but its
not imploding near fast enough
to cause a serious cramp in
Putins domestic survivability.

DO YOU THINK INDIAN PRIME


MINISTER NARENDRA MODI
CAN LIVE UP TO THE HYPE?
I do. The real question is, to
what extent is Modi going to be
effective as a national politician? Still, compared to where
India was going, I certainly
think the level of international
support for Modi is going to
be extraordinary.

WHATS THE LESSON FROM


THE SONY HACK? We may
need some baseline regulatory standards to determine
basic cybersecurity efforts
in place at multinational
corporations. What worries
me is, what happens when
its a bank?

WHO LOSES THE MOST


FROM CHEAP OIL? Nicols Maduro in Venezuela. They balanced their
budget at $162 a barrel for
2014. Thats a good hundred
dollarsplus over where it is
right now.

2014 SEEMED TERRIBLE. ARE


THERE POSITIVE TRENDS FOR
2015? In Asia, theres a lack
of geopolitical tensions and
there are leaders engaged in
an economic transformation
that is vastly overdue. The U.S.
economy is in rebound. Those
are all positives.

no longer closely coordinating policies.


The most direct challenge will come
from China. Washington is still working to solidify its long-term commercial
and security interests in East Asia via
the Trans-Pacific Partnership, a colossal U.S.-led trade deal involving a dozen
countries on either side of the Pacic. For
the moment, this is not a deal that will
include China and its state-dominated
economy. Thats why China is working on
an enormous international trade deal of
its own. At a regional summit meeting in
November, Chinese President Xi Jinping
announced a road map for the creation of a
Free Trade Area of the Asia-Pacic
(FTAAP). More than 20 countries have formally signaled interest in FTAAP membership.
In fact, Chinanot America
is now the worlds lead trading
nation. According to analysis
by the Associated Press, in
2012 the U.S. was the
largest trade partner
for 76 countries, and
communist China
was the lead partner for 124.
The U.S. will remain the worlds
most powerful
nation for years
to come, but that
status doesnt carry
as much weight as it
used to. Advantages
enjoyed for decades
are fading as new powers push for new rules
and standardsin international politics, the global
marketplace and online.
Globalization will continue
to spread new ideas, speed
the ow of information, lift
nations out of poverty and
drive global consumption.
But its less likely than before to promote American
values and an American
worldview.

Bremmer is president of Eurasia Group, a political-risk


consultancy

J AV I E R S I R V E N T F O R T I M E

extend Chinese commercial influence


across South and Central Asia and into
Europe. Those initiatives will give China
greater market powerand therefore political inuencewith the governments
of partner countries and will help Beijing
escape the dominance of U.S.-mandated
rules and standards. In addition, Russia
and China are now talking about creating their own ratings agency to further
diminish Western influence in their
economies.
The emergence of new lenders and investors provides autocratic governments
access to cash without having to promise
democratic reforms. But diminished inuence abroad is only part of the story. For
many emerging states, partisan paralysis
in Washington makes democracy a less
than appealing path toward development.
Nor will it be as easy for the U.S. to
build greater support for market-driven
capitalism, particularly as China continues to demonstrate the growth potential
of the state-driven variety. In 2015 congressional opponents of the U.S. ExportImport Bank, an 80-year-old institution
designed to enhance the market power of
U.S. companies operating abroad, will nally have a golden opportunity to kill it.
At the same time, though much has been
made of Chinas economic-reform process,
changes to Chinas economy have less to
do with privatization and more with making Chinas enormous state-owned companies work more effectively.
American prospects in the Middle East
are not, for the moment, very encouraging.
The Obama Administrations bid to make
a deal with Iran to scuttle its nuclear program leaves the Saudis worried that the
U.S. will lift sanctions on Riyadhs bitterest rival, shifting the regions balance of
power in Irans favor. The continued erosion of U.S.-Saudi ties will persuade the
Saudi royal family to run a much more
independent foreign policy than it used
to. For example, though technically part
of a U.S.-led anti-ISIS coalition, the Saudis
are not working as hard as they could to
track funding and arms that militants
from the Islamic State of Iraq and Greater
Syria receive as they work to destabilize
Iraq and Bashar Assads Syria. Even in
places where the U.S. and Saudis have
shared interests, the two countries are

THE YEAR AHEAD | POWER

Photograph by Stephen Voss for TIME

THE GENERALS
BURDEN
MARTIN DEMPSEY MUST DECIDE WHETHER TO SEND
U.S. GROUND TROOPS TO IRAQ FOR A THIRD WAR
BY MARK THOMPSON

SILENT
REMINDER
A box on
Dempseys desk
lled with photos of the troops
he lost in Iraq in
200304

a h a n d s om e c a r v e d b ox
sits atop the desk where Army
General Martin Dempsey works
and waits for a call from the
White House to send young
Americans to war in Iraq again.
Its actually a custom cigar box
a fellow ofcer bought for him
in Virginia Beach after they returned from Iraq in 2004. But
inside, arrayed a little bit like
tea bags at a fancy restaurant, sit
133 laminated cards, each one
picturing a soldier who died under Dempseys command in and
around Baghdad a decade ago.
make it matterthe words
carved into the top of the box
are a warning to Dempsey, now
the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs
of Staff. Urging a President to
send troops into combat is always the hardest decision, the
nations top uniformed officer
told military families in July.
You just cant escape it, but more
important, you should not try to
escape it.

Lately, Dempsey hasnt sounded like he wants to escape it. Instead, he seems to be saying its
not if but when GIs will again be
ghting on Iraqi soil. Ever since
President Obama began bombing terrorists in Iraq in August,
Dempsey has been warning that
limited numbers of U.S. ground
troopsperhaps hundreds
will probably be required there
as the stakes rise in the battle
against the Islamic State of Iraq
and Greater Syria (ISIS). With incoming Defense Secretary Ashton Carter more manager than
warriorCarter has no time
in uniformDempsey stands
alone as strategist. This is my
third shot at Iraq, Dempsey
said on Nov. 19, shortly after returning from a reconnoitering
mission there. Baghdads new
leaders, he said, are going to
need a combination of courage,
luck and leadership to manage
their way through this.
And, he added, American help.

THE YEAR AHEAD | POWER

Its Americas third shot at Iraq too,


and the prospect for this round looks no
better than the second. More than 30 nations have been battling ISIS for a half year
without regaining much territory. About a
dozen nations are conducting air strikes,
with the rest training Iraqi forces. Some
3,000 U.S. troops are earmarked for the effort but barred from ground combat so far,
which means they spend their time advising and training Iraqi troops.
For much of the fall, Dempsey has been
arguing that more U.S. repower will probably be needed. He shook up the White
House for the first time in September,
barely a month after U.S. air strikes began
hitting ISIS targets in Iraq. He declared, in
a prepared statement before Congress, that
he wouldnt hesitate to urge Obama to send
in ground troops to accompany Iraq troops
on attacks against specic [ISIS] targets.
Generals routinely refuse to discuss what
they term hypotheticals, yet Dempsey did
just that, without prodding from any lawmaker. The White House was not pleased,
retorting that U.S. policy has not changed.
Dempsey did it again the same month.
Ive never said, No boots on the ground,
he told a Notre Dame audience. I dont
use any language that boxes me in. Unlike the Commander in Chief, he seemed
to be saying.
The Chairman can sometimes be too
clever. We dont debate anything in the
military, he has told Congress. We provide options and let our elected ofcials
make their decisions. But while speaking to lawmakers in November, Dempsey
suggested that a low-risk option for the
campaign would probably include the
introduction of U.S. ground forces to take
control of the ght. The Pentagon brass,
he quickly added, doesnt believe thats
the right thing to do at this point.
But nearly everyone at the Pentagon
thinks it might be the right thing to do
soon. As lethal as U.S. airpower can be, its
far deadlierand more accuratewhen
there are U.S. troops on the front lines,
weighing ever changing intelligence
and guiding air strikes to specic, U.S.conrmed targets. And so the most benevolent interpretation of what Dempsey
has been doing is preparing the President
for his militarys recommendation for reinforcements on the ground when the ght
80

to retake Mosul, Iraqs second largest city,


begins. That date keeps shifting, but its
likely to happen by mid-2015. Dempseys
pretty savvy, says retired general John
Keane, who served as the Armys No. 2 ofcer. Because he has to provide his own personal opinion to Congress, he takes license
to really get his views out there.

THE ANTI-PETRAEUS
dempsey is a little different from
some of the other four-star generals of the
21st century. He shuns honorary degrees,
late-night television appearances and
cooperation with articles like this one.
Aides call him the anti-Petraeus, a dig
at David Petraeus, the retired Army general who cultivatedand gotfawning
press coverage. Dempseys low-key style
is designed to increase his clout at the nodrama White House.
A New Jersey native, West Point graduate and amateur crooner who married his
high school sweetheart, he is also an armor ofcer by training. Dempsey helped
command a tank brigade in the rst Gulf
War and led the 1st Armored Division in
Baghdad in 2003 and 2004. As the Iraqi capital exploded following the U.S. invasion,
he transformed his heavy division into a
counterinsurgency force that calmed the
Shiite revolt and won praise from colleagues. He would go on to train both U.S.
and Iraqi troops and do a stint at U.S. Central Command for seven months in 2008

with only three stars on his shoulder after


his predecessor, Admiral William Fallon,
stepped down early following an impolitic interview about the chances of war between the U.S. and Iran.
These successes led Obama to tap him as
the Armys top ofcer in 2011. Still, he was
stunned, the day after taking over as the
Army chief of staff, when Defense Secretary Robert Gates told him hed be nominated to become Chairman of the Joint Chiefs.
Since then, Dempseys been a steadying
hand at the Pentagon as he enters the nal
year of his four-year tour as Chairman. But
the debate about ISIS is looming, which will
test Dempseys relations with the White
House. Disagreement isnt disloyalty,
Dempsey has said, although its possible
to see how the White House might take it
that way. In fact, adding to his independent
stature, Dempsey has tacitly criticized the
President for not ghting harder to keep
U.S. troops in Iraq after 2011. Many military ofcers believe a lingering presence
would have kept ISIS out of the country and
preserved the gains that cost the U.S. more
than $1 trillion and 4,491 lives. The Obama
Administration said it had to pull them out
after the Iraqi parliament refused to grant
legal immunity to U.S. troops beginning
in 2012; others argue Obama was eager to
bring all the troops home and didnt ght
hard enough to keep a residual force behind. There is a debate, in which I am not a
participant, about whether we tried as hard
as we could to leave [some residual force]
there, Dempsey has said, diplomatically.
I thought we should have left forces there.

THE CHAIRMANS WAR PLAN

I V E N E V E R S AI D, N O
B O OT S O N TH E G RO U N D . . .
I D O N T U S E A N Y L AN G UAG E THAT B OX E S M E I N .

M A R T I N D E M P S E Y, C H A I R M A N
O F T H E J O I N T C H I E F S O F S TA F F

how soon might more troops go ?


Dempsey has hedged his bets so far, endorsing an air war that has halted ISISs
advances but done little to retake the wide
swath of Syria and Iraq that ISIS now occupies. The real test will come when Iraqi
forces are ordered to retake Mosul, in the
northern part of the country.
Military realists argue that if the U.S.
and its Iraqi ally have any hope of defeating
ISIS on the ground, a limited number of
American troops, to suss out intelligence
and call in air strikes, will be needed. An
initial deployment would range from dozens to hundreds, but some in the military
could eventually push for thousands.
time December 29, 2014January 5, 2015

J O N AT H A N E R N S T R E U T E R S

Obama has tied the militarys hands by


saying no U.S. ground troops and turned it
into an open-ended conict like Vietnam,
says Gary Anderson, a retired Marine colonel. Our allies know it cant be done, and
our enemies know it cant be done. Who
the hell do we think were fooling?
Politics will play a role, of course. While
Dempseys objectives can be measured on
the battleeld, Obama nds himself weighing a different set of pressures, including
his own legacy. The President started his
second term declaring that a decade of war
is now ending. He announced the current
military campaign by pledging, We will
not get dragged into another ground war,
a welcome relief to most Americans weary
of conict. But he also recently sent his Secretary of State, John Kerry, to ask Congress
not to bar ground troops in a new war authorization. So far, Obama has set a high
bar: if ISIS gets possession of a nuclear
weapon, Obama said Nov. 16 in Australia,
that would trigger an order to send ground
troops in to secure it.
Dempsey has said he is certainly considering recommending to Obama that
some U.S. ground troops help the Iraqi
army and Kurdish peshmerga forces retake Mosul, which has been living under
a brutal and extreme version of Sharia

DECISIVE VIEW
The Chairman of
the Joint Chiefs
is the key voice
on whether U.S.
troops return to
combat in Iraq

since ISIS overran it in June. But, Dempsey


insists, the U.S. military would only be supporting Iraqi forces, who would do most of
the ghting. Americans have heard that before. This is going to require a much larger
commitment of ground troops down the
road, says Peter Chiarelli, who retired as
the Armys No. 2 ofcer in 2012 and knows
the Chairman well. I have full condence
that Marty Dempsey will make that argument when the time is right.
But even if the U.S. somehow helps to
drive ISIS militants from Iraq, that still
leaves the bigger challenge of destroying
them inside Syria, where there is no existing ground force allied with U.S. airpower.
The Pentagon wants to train 15,000 rebel
Syrians within the next three years and
then trust them to focus on defeating ISIS
instead of their bitter foe, Syrian dictator
Bashar Assad, whose three-year-old civil
war has killed more than 200,000.
That separate, even-more-complicated
war plan remains a work in progress,
Dempsey conceded Nov. 13: Our priority is
in Iraq, and then we will gure out, while
disrupting in Syria, what to do about it in
Syria. Whatever Dempsey decides to do,
he wont be making that decision by himself. Hell be guided by those 133 soldiers
sitting silently in that box on his desk.

THE YEAR AHEAD | DRONES

CATTLE CALL
Cows whose
grazing elds in
Merced County,
California, have
been devastated
by drought crowd
around a water
pump in November

MIDDLE VISION
EASILY ACCESSIBLE, AFFORDABLE DRONES ARE GIVING US
A NEWPERHAPS TEMPORARYVANTAGE ON THE WORLD
P H O T O G R A P H S B Y T O M A S VA N H O U T R Y V E

SUBURBIA
Cars line a street
in an apartment
complex in
Poughkeepsie,
N.Y.home to
Vassar College
and Marist
Collegein
November

When a drone looks at a thing,


that thing has a way of looking
like a target. People become
silhouettes at a shooting range.
Buildings look vulnerable, their
roofs helplessly exposed and
defenseless. Most colors disappear, and the remaining
blacks, whites and grays evacuate the scene of all human
meaning. What we see becomes data: body counts, damage reports, strategic value.
In these photos, shot as
part of an ongoing series,
Belgian photographer Tomas
van Houtryve looks at America

through the eyes of a drone,


a small quadcopter he bought
online and equipped with a
high-resolution camera. A
drone seems particularly appropriate because its increasingly
how America views the rest of
the world, he says. I wanted
to turn things around. What do
we look like from a drones-eye
view? Suspicious? Prosperous?
Free and happy? Every age
brings with it new technology
for looking at the world. Van
Houtryve has embraced the
technology of ours.
Drones are becoming an increasingly common sight in our
domestic airspace. Pilots have
started spotting them from
airliners: the FAA reports up

to 40 cases a month in which


drones are seen exceeding the
legal ceiling of 400 ft. (122 m).
As they get cheaper, more
popular and more plentiful
one online community for
enthusiasts, DIY Drones, has
over 60,000 membersthey
are bringing with them a host
of unanswered questions, and
the White House is scrambling
to bring regulatory order to the

ALL PHOTOS: VII

84

aerial chaos. In December, the


FAA delayed its long-awaited
guidelines on drone ights,
initially due in 2015, until
2017. The questions are about
safety but also about privacy:
were a lot more comfortable
looking through drones than
suffering their all-seeing, alljudging gaze.
From this godlike point of
view, teenagers playing lacrosse
on a eld look like lunar shadows of themselves. A housing
development in Poughkeepsie,
N.Y., takes on an abstract geometric beauty. Everything everywhere looks silent and calm,

still and waiting. Even scenes of


economic and ecological chaos
take on their own serene perfection. In Californias Central
Valley, van Houtryve found order
in rows of houseboats moored
in a reservoir. Rings on the
shoreline show how profoundly
the water level has been reduced by months of drought.

That same order is echoed


by rows of RVs parked near an
Amazon fulllment center near
Reno, Nev. (Coincidentally,
Amazon is where van Houtryve
bought his drone.) Migrant
workers ock there in RVs for
the extra jobs that materialize during the holiday season
and then, like the water in that
California reservoir, evaporate
into thin air. In a strange way,
the pitilessness in the drones
stare inspires its opposite
in human eyes: empathy.
LEV GROSSMAN

MANY EYES
Camden, N.J.,
seen in late
November, was
ranked in 2012
as the most
violent U.S. city
with a population
of over 50,000;
local police have
spent millions
of dollars on
new surveillance
equipment

85

WORKOUT TIME
A group of
lacrosse players
warm up in Clark
County, Nevada,
just miles from
Creech Air Force
Base, command
center for
overseas drone
strikes

HOLIDAY HOME
A nearby Amazon
fulllment center
makes this RV
park in Fernley,
Nev., a draw
for job seekers
during the peak
shopping season

DRIED UP
Houseboats on
Lake Oroville,
Californias
second largest
reservoir, which
is 70% empty
because of
severe drought

T HE

NE W

RUL E S

OF

CULTURE
C O M E DY
T E L E V I S I O N
F I L M
F O O D

&

T R AV E L

S P O RT S

STAR TRACK
Amy Schumers
movie Trainwreck,
directed by Judd
Apatow, is out
in July

E
Photograph by Martin Schoeller for TIME

T H E Y E A R A H E A D | C U LT U R E

FUNNY GIRL
AMY SCHUMER HAS FOUND A DEVOTED AUDIENCE
BY SENDING UP SEXISMINCLUDING HER OWN
BY JOEL STEIN

amy schumer hangs out with a lot of


guys. Not regular guys. Guy guys. She
joined the Anti-Social Comedy Tour, performing onstage with Dave Attell (former host of Showtimes Daves Old Porn),
Jim Norton (arrested in 2000 for driving
around Manhattan with topless teens in a
glass-walled bus) and Artie Lange (barred
for life from ESPN for racist and sexually
explicit tweets). She hangs out with guys
where theyre their most indelicatenot
just at comedy clubs but as a frequent guest
on The Howard Stern Show and the Opie and
Anthony radio show, where shes talked
about getting a taxi driver to touch her
very intimately. Her ice-bucket challenge
involved standing in her underwear and
pouring clam chowder all over herself. This
is not the typical curriculum vitae for one
of Americas most popular feminists.
Schumer is the giant-smiled, doll-faced
33-year-old comedian in the too-cutesy
dress who tells very un-cutesy stories
about what its like to be a single woman
distressed by her complicity in a sexist society. Shes your sorority sister confessing
to last nights drunken mistakes as ltered
through her assigned reading on Simone
de Beauvoir. Shes turned this act into an
Emmy-nominated Comedy Central sketch
show, Inside Amy Schumer, which begins
its third season in April and was the
channels highest-rated premiere of 2013.
Schumers 2012 stand-up special, Mostly
Sex Stuff, was the highest-rated special
on Comedy Central in the past two years.
Most weekends, Schumer ies around the
country to perform, lling 2,500-seat theaters. In April, shell host the MTV Movie Awards. In July, shell star in her rst
96

feature lm, Trainwreck, which she also


wrote and which Judd Apatow is directing;
shell be playing opposite Tilda Swinton
and LeBron James. Its the rst time Apatow (The 40-Year-Old Virgin, Knocked Up)
has directed a movie he didnt write.
Schumers success comes at a time when
gender politics is becoming both more
prominent and more divisive. Earlier this
year, blogger Anita Sarkeesian received
death threats for pointing out misogyny
in violent video games. But Schumers
comedy, while playing heavily on gender
politics, has gone down easywith both
male and female audiences. People who
maintain their sense of humor while having something to say are very important in
the culture, says Apatow. Shes threading
the needle perfectly. Its impossible to exaggerate how difcult that is to do.
Sitting at Cast & Plow, the restaurant
at a Ritz-Carlton in Los Angeles, Schumer
explains she didnt set out to become a feminist comic. She didnt want to be the voice
of anything. She recalls once surng alone
near her hometown of Rockville Centre,
Long Island. She hurt herself badly, tearing three layers of skin off her leg, eventually requiring 41 stitches. My rst thought
was I was going to die. Then I thought, Im
going to have to go to assemblies and talk
about what happened to me and what Ive
learned and have a good attitude. I was so

TH E N E W R U LE

THE FUNNIEST PERSON


IN THE ROOM ISNT A WHITE MAN IN A SUIT

grossed out. Shes been successful at making a point because shes so averse to being
seen making one; shes just trying to make
the funniest joke possible, hopefully one
that makes everyone as uncomfortable as
possible. As she orders a decaf coffee, she
notices the name of the restaurant. Thats
what happens to you here in L.A., she says.
You get cast and you get plowed.

GROWING PAINS
schumer went to new york city in
2004 after majoring in theater at Towson
University. She took acting classes and
eventually went to the Comedy Cellar, a
small space in the West Village that attracts a certain type of comedian: raw,
personal, interactive. Its where Louis CK
is always headed on his show Louie. She
took the stage as a ditzy, Shirley Temple
inspired party girl who told dirty stories.
But unlike Sarah Silverman, who wears
the armor of a tomboy while trying to provoke, Schumer revealed a lot about her life.
The rst time Jessi Klein, now the head
writer on Inside, saw Schumer, they were
doing stand-up together in New York. In
one of her jokes, she made reference to having HPV, and I thought that was the bravest thing Id ever heard, Klein remembers.
Everyone has it, and nobody talks about
it. I was like, Oh my God, she dared to talk
about HPV. I want to be her best friend.
Attell, for whom Schumer opened for
almost two years, says shes one of the
best comics at handling a crowdeven
the sometimes rowdy ones on their AntiSocial Comedy Tour. This is not a TED
convention. This is not a high-tea social,
he says. There are a lot of edgy acts that

2
3

NEW ACTS
Pushing boundaries onstage, onscreen and online

1. ILANA GLAZER
AND ABBI JACOBSON

G L A Z E R , J A C O B S O N : C O M E DY C E N T R A L ; A M R A M , W I L L I A M S , L I N D H O M E , M I C U C C I : G E T T Y I M A G E S

The pot-loving duo


behind Comedy Centrals buddy comedy
Broad City prove onscreen female friendships dont have to be
fraught to be hilarious

2. MEGAN AMRAM
The Parks & Recreation writer and
Twitter sensation
mines negative
stereotypes about
girls and STEM in
her mock textbook,
Science, for Her!

if everything goes right with the crowd,


its good. But she rolls with the punches. A
drunk guy in the audience yelling at her,
she will work that in her act, he says. Audiences dont expect it, because she plays
such a girly girl. And that dichotomy is
real: In person, Schumer is exceedingly
polite and charming. She has the dainty
handshake of a nishing-school graduate,
is ercely loyal to her friends (she casts a
lot of them) and yet fails to make any shift
in her casual, matter-of-fact tone whether
listing her fashion choices or the many sex
acts shes never tried.
Schumer has always been fearless and
vaguely unaware that it is unusual to be
that way. Her sister Kim Caramele, who
is four years younger and quit her job as a
school psychologist to be Amys tour manager and a writer on the TV show in 2013,
remembers showing up for high school:
Id be like, Hi, Im Amy Schumers sister,
time December 29, 2014January 5, 2015

3. JESSICA WILLIAMS 4. RIKI LINDHOME


AND KATE MICUCCI
The rst black
woman to be a
correspondent on
The Daily Show brings
a fresh viewpoint with
her popular segments
about racism, sexism
and privilege

The folksinging pair


behind IFCs Garfunkel
and Oates have redened the musical
comedy with satirical
songs about smug
pregnant women and
ex-boyfriends

and the teacher would be like, Ugh. When


I told Amy, she was like, Oh, I thought I
had a different vibe going, Caramele says.
Shed ask to go to the bathroom, and the
teacher would say, No. So shed say, I have
my period. Rockville Centre was very Irish
Catholic. Girls were very tame and quiet
in front of teachers. She wasnt like that.
When Schumer was 9, her dad was diagnosed with MS and her parents declared
bankruptcy. They got divorced three years
later. By her own account, Schumer was a
slightly troubled kid, quitting shoplifting
only after being arrested when she was 19.
After three years of stand-up, Schumer
came in fourth on NBCs Last Comic Standing in 2007 and impressed Comedy Central
executives, who had her conduct man-onthe-street interviews for internal sales
videos. Then they persuaded a reluctant
Charlie Sheen to let the obscure stand-up
be part of his 2011 roast. Schumer was so

outrageous and piercingly funny, even


for a roastYou were amazing in Platoon. Your marriage to Denise [Richards]
was kind of like her Vietnam because she
was constantly afraid of being killed by
Charliethat afterward Sheen tried to
cast her in his sitcom, Anger Management.
Meanwhile, her comedy got more personal. In each of her venues, Schumer
plays a character not too far from herself,
all named Amy. In her upcoming movie,
the Amy in question is a writer at a lads
magazine called SNuff who, after a lifetime of very short-term relationships, falls
for a nice-guy sports surgeon (Bill Hader).
But just like the real Amy, her character
dates a professional wrestler played by
John Cena (Schumer dated Cenas WWE
colleague Dolph Ziggler) and has a dad
with multiple sclerosis and a lot of difculty being in a long-term relationship.
Last June, shooting a scene in a loft in
the Chelsea section of Manhattan decorated with huge fake magazine covers
with lines like garden of eatin: yes
you have to, Apatow says he initially suggested that Schumer pick a different name
for her onscreen character. I think we just
forgot to change it, she interjects. And
we werent sure if you would be able to remember another name, he adds. In fact,
Apatow got her to throw away her rst
lm script and write something directly
from her life, since her honesty is what he
found so compelling. He rst contacted
her after hearing her on Howard Stern
talking about her fathers illness. She was
very sweet and vulnerable and funny as
hell on a difcult subject, he says.
She had already become even more real
onstage, the veneer of short poofy dresses
and a singsongy voice dropping away. She
made stinging cracks about awkward sexual encounters and feelings of dissatisfaction with herself. Men, she was relieved to
nd, stayed seated without her having to
try to maintain their attention through
her Gracie Allen bit. But the wider reaction to her increasingly personal material was unexpected: On NPRs Fresh Air,
Terry Gross shocked her by asking, Do
you really think of yourself as a slut? Her
male comic friends, who talked about sex
just as much, werent generating similar assumptionsthey were just dudes
talking about their lives.
97

T H E Y E A R A H E A D | C U LT U R E

She fought this portrayal as sexist and


unfair for a while but then decided to go
the other way. Beginning with her 2012
Comedy Central special, she emphasized
the material about sex and body image
that made people uncomfortable. If the
point of those jokes was that these are
things all women are familiar with, she
was going to make it even clearer. That
was a conscious thought when I was working on that special: Ill be a voice for women. This is an emotional market that hasnt
been cornered. Why dont I stop resisting
that and look at it as an opportunity?
When the editor presented his rst take
to her, he asked if she thought there was
another way to cut the as-yet-untitled special since it was mostly sex stuff. Instead,
that became the programs title.

CALLING OUT
by simply talking about her life,
Schumer came to be seen by fans as a feminist. She has embraced that identity and
done so without alienating men. Which
is pretty important not only because men
like to go to see live comedy but because
she has appealed to Comedy Centrals audience, which is 60% maleabout the same
as college footballs. Her second season
premiere actually did better with 18-to-34year-old men than Tosh.0, the very dudeoriented clip show of Internet fails that
precedes Inside. I dont think guys necessarily realize she has such a strong feminist point of view, says Comedy Central
president of content and original development Kent Alterman. She shows her own
neediness that guys can relate to from their
own experiences with women. And even if
youre a misogynist, its still funny.
Even when her material is criticizing
male behavior very directly. In one Inside
sketch calling out male Internet commenters who largely focus on her looks (see
the MTV Facebook page where Schumer
announced she was hosting the awards
show), she asks a male focus group what
they think of her show, and they just talk
about whether theyd have sex with her. In
another, she takes on video-game misogyny and sexual assault in the military simultaneously. In the scene, she picks up her
boyfriends controller during a Call of Duty
style video game and her female character
is immediately raped and demoted to paper98

work duty after she les assault charges.


Then theres the part of her stand-up
routine based on her rst sexual experience in high school: Weve all been a little
raped. Just a hair. Every girl I know has
one night, usually in college, and shes like,
Huh? I think that was rape. Not totes consensh. I dont remember yelling Yes. Its
not all black and white. Theres a gray area.
Grape happens.
Schumers reaction to the sexist scenarios she describes is always less an outraged How dare they! than a bemused
Huh. This is weird. Her default position
is empathy. Shes stumbling onto societal
horrors, accidentally blurting out larger
truths she seems unaware of. Or, as her
Trainwreck co-star Tilda Swinton puts it,
She has a basilisk eye for the humane. She
is like a hypocrisy-bomb-disposal expert.
Shes looking into all the nooks and crannies and carrying out controlled explosions for all our sakes.
Schumers comedy makes the argument
that things might be unfair, they might
be messed up, but as needy egomaniacs,
were all complicit. Especially, she always
points out, herself. Schumer has a recurring sketch where women backhandedly
compliment each other, and on the show
shes constantly playing a woman who is
simultaneously furious about being objectied and worried that men wont nd her
attractive enough to objectify. Theres a
lot of stuff that women do that shell call
out, and Im like Oh, Ive done that, says
Vanessa Bayer, who plays her co-worker in
the movie.
Before Jerry Seinfeld interviewed her

E V E N I F YO U RE A
M I S O GY N I ST, IT S
STI LL FU N N Y.
K E N T A LT E R M A N ,
C O M E DY C E N T R A L

on his web series Comedians in Cars Getting


Coffee last fall, he lamented to Colin Quinn
that he was going to have to check out yet
another sketch show. We feel like weve
all seen that kind of show. Then you watch
it and think, Why is this different? Because
its so personal, says Quinn, a longtime
friend who plays Schumers dad in Trainwreck. Shes saying were trying and were
making fools of ourselves sometimes. Shes
being vulnerable not just for herself but for
all the girls. Its almost a toast: Hey, girls,
weve all been there. And when she points
out how men behave, Quinn says, they see
their own foolishness too. You laugh and
say, Im a creep. Oh well. So what? What do
you want out of me? Were not going to be
like women and say, Oh, wow, I had that
moment, says Quinn. Well, maybe there
was a half moment.
Theres been so much positive reaction
to her feminism that Schumer is starting
to feel more assured. Shes getting further
from the freshman with body issues who
has desperate sex with a drunken older
guy, an emotional story she told in a Ms.
Foundation for Women gala speech that
got reprinted on the Internet. So there are
fewer jokes like I know what I look like.
Like, youd bang me but you wouldnt blog
about it. She used to be known for wearing
sweatpants in public, as if by not trying she
could avoid opening herself to all that physical judgment, but now shes let the movies
stylist rebuild her personal wardrobe. Im
just now trying to dress a little better. Im
placing more value on myself, she says.
In the movie, she wrote herself a lot of sex
scenes, which, she says, was uncomfortable. I would usually defuse a situation
by being self-deprecating, and I said, Im
not going to do that. Im not going to say
anything self-deprecating on set, she says.
This season, Schumer plans to make the
feminism on her show more direct without being preachy. Shes determined, for instance, to take on unequal pay in a sketch.
She successfully fought the Comedy Central standards-and-practices department to
let her use a euphemism for female genitalia on her shows thats been forbidden,
though the network has allowed a similar
euphemism for male genitalia for years. It
may not be womens suffrage, but its probably the feminist issue that Schumer is most

uniquely trained to ght for.


time December 29, 2014January 5, 2015

IF YOU THINK
YOURE
LAYERED UP
FOR THE

POLAR
VORTEX

TRY WEARING THIS


concernusa.org/ebola

Working together with the people of Sierra Leone


and Liberia to stop the transmission of Ebola.

T H E Y E A R A H E A D | C U LT U R E

2015 CULTURE CALENDAR


MOVIES MUSIC TELEVISION BOOKS

JAN.

FEB.

8
Portlandia
Season 5
(IFC)

W
13
The Girl on
the Train by
Paula Hawkins
W

APRIL

20
The Divergent
series:
Insurgent

3
Furious 7
W

W
1
Katy Perrys
Super Bowl
XLIX halftime
show
W

23
James Corden
takes over
The Late Late
Show

7
Alexander
McCall Smith
takes on
Jane Austen
with Emma:
A Modern
Retelling
W
30
God Help the
Child by Toni
Morrison

3
Funny Girl by
Nick Hornby
hits U.S.
shelves
W

20
SleaterKinney, No
Cities to Love

W
TBD
Community
creator Dan
Harmon has
hinted that
the show
could make its
Yahoo debut
in late January

W
16
Maroon 5s
2015 world
tour begins in
Dallas
W
22
Neil Patrick
Harris hosts
the 87th
Academy
Awards

100

5
The Entourage
movie
W

1
Avengers: Age of
Ultron
W
5
Taylor Swifts
1989 World Tour
begins in Tokyo
W

20
David
Lettermans nal
Late Show
W
TBD
Netixs
Daredevil series

8
Better
Call Saul
premieres on
AMC
W
13
Fifty Shades
of Grey

JUNE

5
Paper Towns,
the latest
John Green
novel to
become a
movie
W
12
Chris Pratt
stars in
Jurassic World

15
Pitch Perfect 2
W

7
One Direction
begins the
On the Road
Again Tour in
Sydney
W
W

MAY

WHAT FRANZEN TOLD


US ABOUT PURITY
> Its about the same length as Freedom.
> There is no Midwestern family at the
center of it.
> The story is set mainly in Northern
California, Berlin, Bolivia, Denver,
Philadelphia and rural New Jersey.
> It alternates between the present day
and the 1980s.
> Several of the main characters are
journalists; several others are German.
> There is a premeditated murder, a
stray thermonuclear weapon and quite
a bit of sex.

JONATHAN
FRANZENS
NEXT NOVEL
COMES OUT IN
SEPTEMBER

W
16
A book about
romance from
comedian Aziz
Ansari

P E R R Y, C O R D E N , S W I F T, H A R R I S , O N E D I R E C T I O N , D R A K E , M A D O N N A , R I H A N N A , M O R O D E R , S T E F A N I , L A M A R , A D E L E , N YO N GO, C R O S L E Y: G E T T Y I M A G E S

14
Broad City
Season 2
(Comedy
Central)

MARCH

JULY

AUG.

SEPT.

OCT.

NOV.

1
Magic Mike
XXL
W

7
The Fantastic
Four reboot
stars Michael
B. Jordan,
Kate Mara and
Miles Teller
W

18
Benedict
Cumberbatch
plays Whitey
Bulgers
brother in
Black Mass

9
Lupita Nyongo
and Idris Elba
lend their
voices to The
Jungle Book

6
Spectre, a
new James
Bond lm
W

17
Ant-Man

14
Straight Outta
Compton, the
N.W.A. biopic
W

20
The Hunger
Games series
ends with
Mockingjay
Part 2

25
Robert De Niro
is Anne
Hathaways
Intern

28
Crouching
Tiger, Hidden
Dragon: The
Green Legend
hits Netix
and Imax

DEC.

18
Star Wars:
The Force
Awakens
W
25
The fth
Mission:
Impossible
lm
W
TBD
NBC has
announced
The Music
Man Live!

TBD
The Clasp by
Sloane Crosley

2015 ALBUM WATCH


BY NOL AN FEENEY

THE LATEST UPDATES FROM SOME OF MUSICS BIGGEST NAMES


Drake

Giorgio Moroder

The MC mentioned a
spring release for Views
From the 6 on a new
song this summer

The disco icons rst


album in more than
30 years will arrive in
the spring and feature
Britney Spears, Sia and
Charli XCX

Madonna

The material girl worked


with DJ-producers Diplo
and Avicii on her 13th
studio album, due in
the spring

Rihanna

She previewed a new


song on Instagram
but hasnt revealed
much about her eighth

album. Any news about


#R8 will be delivered
directly from me!!!! she
tweeted in November
Gwen Stefani

She has a new single,


Spark the Fire, but the
No Doubt singer told
TIME shes still writing
her rst solo album
since 2006, expected
early in the year

Kendrick Lamar

New Yorks Hot 97 DJ


Peter Rosenberg said
the rapper told him to
expect the Good Kid,
M.A.A.D. City follow-up
in early 2015
Adele

Following her cryptic


tweet in May that
caused widespread
speculation over the

follow-up to 21, the


singers rep now says
theres no information to
share about a release
Red Hot Chili Peppers

In October, bassist
Flea said the band had
nearly nished writing
its super danceable
new album and hoped
to have it out within
the year

T H E Y E A R A H E A D | C U LT U R E

MEET LARRY WILMORE

ARE YOU SWIMMING AGAINST


THE CURRENT? It seems like

THE HOST OF COMEDY CENTRALS NEWEST FAKE-NEWS SHOW


(AND MAGICIAN) HAS A FEW TRICKS UP HIS SLEEVE
BY JAMES PONIEWOZIK

HELLO, LARRY
Wilmore
will inherit
Colberts slot

Now that Stephen Colbert


has led his nal report, get
ready for his replacement:
Larry Wilmore, a comedian,
actor, writer, producer and
senior black correspondent
for The Daily Show. Beginning
Jan. 19, hell host The Nightly
Show With Larry Wilmore on
Comedy Central weeknights
after Jon Stewart.

WEVE SEEN A LOT OF VARIATIONS ON THE FAKE-NEWS


FORMAT. WHATS NEW ABOUT
THE NIGHTLY SHOW? The best
way to describe it would be
if you combined The Daily
Show and Bill Mahers show.
It will be me weighing in, doing the headlines, and then
therell be a panel aspect.

YOU HAD TO CHANGE THE


TITLE OF THE SHOW FROM
THE MINORITY REPORT. WERE
LAWYERS INVOLVED? Yeah,
we had letters from Fox [the
studio behind Steven Spielbergs Minority Report] and
very strict, lets say, suggestions. Wed have to use the
full title all the time. It was
too much of a pain.

DID CHANGING THE NAME


CHANGE THE SHOW? Not
at all. The show has always
been about the point of view
of the underdog. Im not going
to do 30 minutes of senior
black correspondent. To be
honest, I really like the title,
because our show can dene
what it is instead of people
assuming from Minority
ReportWhy is he not talking about black today?

HOW WOULD YOU DESCRIBE


YOUR POLITICS? I call myself

IS IT TRUE YOURE ALSO A


MAGICIAN? Yes, I am! I got
into it when I was about 7
at a Cub Scout meeting and
this guy did a rope trick. I
would not rest until I gured
it out. My parents bought me
a magic set for Christmas,
and Ive been hooked ever
since. Ive been a member of
the Magic Castle [in L.A.] for
about 15 years. I like to see
peoples reactions when you
spring something on them
thats a surprise. Thats kind
of what comedy is.

YOU HIRED A WOMAN OF


COLOR AS HEAD WRITER. ARE
YOU CONSCIOUS OF STAFF
DIVERSITY? I always hire a
diverse writing staff. Ive been
doing it since [the 1999
animated sitcom] The PJs.
I remember doing interviews
then and people saying,
Larry, how many black writers do you have? Id say,
Why are you asking me?
Go ask Friends! We have a
very diverse staffalmost
half men, half women, and
different ages too.

SPEAKING OF AGE, YOURE


53. ARE THERE ADVANTAGES
TO GETTING YOUR OWN SHOW
IN YOUR 50S VS. YOUR 20S
OR 30S? Yes, success cant
spoil me. Success, you had
your chance when I was in
my 20s and 30syou could
have done something, but
now its too late! If I were
in my 20s, I would feel like
the world was ending if [the
show] didnt work out. At
this point, Ive been bruised
enough. You just know nothing is for sure.

THE NEW RULE LATE-NIGHT TELEVISION WILL MASH UP WELL-WORN FORMULAS


time December 29, 2014January 5, 2015

P E T E R YA N G C O M E DY C E N T R A L

a passionate centrist. Half the


time I disagree with myself.

people now seek out voices


who are loudly on their team.
Its possible. But you have to
be true to who you are when
youre doing a show like this
and people are inviting you
into their living rooms. A lot of
my comedy comes out of me
trying to get information as
opposed to me trying to force
my opinion on you.

T H E Y E A R A H E A D | C U LT U R E

BARD BEATS
Howard plays
a rapacious
music mogul

CAN A RISQU
NOVEL GO
MAINSTREAM?
BY BELINDA LUSCOMBE

BUILDING AN EMPIRE
LEE DANIELS AND DANNY STRONGTHE TEAM BEHIND THE BUTLER
L AUNCH A SHAKESPEAREAN HIP-HOP DRAMA FOR PRIME-TIME TV
B Y L I LY R O T H M A N

Daniels tweeted, with emoticons, that he needed a martini. It was all so new to me,
he says. Id never worked
even for a studio before.
On a recent afternoon
in his New York City loft, he
explains the decision. His kids
were watching Glee when
the jones struck to do a musical. He told Strong, who
later heard a story about Puff
Daddy and thought about

YO U R ARE LY
SE E BL AC K
M E N I N A M E RI C A
TRU E BL AC K M E N .
T E R R E N C E H O WA R D

how Shakespearean the hiphop drama sounded. Daniels


wanted a black Glee, and
here was his chance. This is
sort of that, he says, without
the gi.e., Lee.
Empire may have a writers
room and many directors, but
its undeniably Daniels show.
Each character has an analogue in his life, and some moments are lifted from it directly.
(A bracing scene from the
pilot, in which Howards character lashes out at his young
son, matches a traumatic moment from Daniels childhood.)
The show also fullls one of
his larger missions: to create
unconventional roles for actors
of color and be inclusive about
sexuality. You rarely see black
men in Americatrue black
men, says Howard. Oftentimes, he has to take some
of the bass out of his voice or
shorten one of his vertebrae.
He still has to answer as dependent on someone else for
something else.
Howards character is
powerful enough to be an exception. Which is another good
reason for Empire to go prime
time: that man deserves the
widest audience possible.

E M P I R E : C H U C K H O D E S F O X ; TAY L O R -J O H N S O N : G E T T Y I M A G E S

An ambitious television project


with Oscar-nominated stars,
name-brand creators and
original music from Timbaland doesnt sound riskybut
if the project is Empire, it is.
Empire features child abuse,
anti-gay slurs and sympathetic
drug deals. And thats just in
the rst episode, premiering
Jan. 7 on Fox.
That may seem daring for
a network planning to air the
show after American Idol, but
its less so for creators Lee
Daniels and Danny Strong, the
director and writer of 2013s
The Butler. (Strong also wrote
the latest Hunger Games
movie.) Daniels is best known
for gritty lms like Precious.
Empirea take on King Lear
starring Terrence Howard as a
record mogul deciding which
of his sons will get the business, with Taraji P. Henson as
his ex-wifebrings that grittiness to TV.
Whats surprising is the
fact that Daniels and Strong
did not take the show to a
lm studio or cable network.
Broadcast TV comes with limits, including lots of input from
lots of people. Early on, after
getting notes on the pilot,

Its hard to imagine a


book with fewer literary
pretensions than Fifty
Shades of Grey, a megaselling erotic novel
inspired by the Twilight
books. But when Sam
Taylor-Johnson (below)
was tapped to direct the
movie version, which
debuts in February, the
project suddenly seemed
intriguing. A darling
of the British art world
and the director of the
John Lennon biopic
Nowhere Boy, TaylorJohnson is familiar
with taboo themes, as
demonstrated in her
photographic series
Men Crying. Why would
a woman with such a
highbrow pedigree take
on something quite so ...
unseemly? There was
something about it that
resonated, she says of
her reaction to the book.
Theres a traditional
fairy tale, but with dark
twisted elements that I
could see would be fun to
work with.

T H E Y E A R A H E A D | C U LT U R E

THE NERD-IVERSE
WHERE 2015S HEROES WILL DUKE IT OUT AND EMBARK ON JOURNEYS
BY ELIANA DOCKTERMAN
Movie
TV show
Book
Video game

TERMINATOR GENISYS
Kyle Reese (Jai Courtney)
travels back in time
from 2029 Los Angeles
to help the Terminator
(Arnold Schwarzenegger)
protect Sarah Connor
(Emilia Clarke) from a
newer model thats
trying to crush her

MAD MAX:
FURY ROAD
Max (Tom Hardy) and
Imperator Furiosa
(Charlize Theron)
ght to survive in
post-apocalyptic
Australia

THE
FANTASTIC FOUR
A group of scientists
(Miles Teller, Kate Mara,
Michael B. Jordan
and Jamie Bell) are
accidentally mutated into
superhumans

Con man Scott Lang


(Paul Rudd) dons a
supersuit that allows him
to shrink in scale but
increase in strength

SUPERGIRL

TRIGGER WARNING
Neil Gaimans
anthology of
short ction
includes fairy tales
and ghost stories

JURASSIC WORLD
Owen (Chris Pratt)
must stop a genetically
engineered dinosaur
created to attract
visitors to failing theme
park Jurassic World
from killing everybody

SEVENEVES
Neal Stephensons
newest novel explores
what happens when the
moon blows up, forcing
Earths survivors to
endure a meteoric storm

Kara Zor-El arrives


on Earthfrom
Kryptonwhere
she must hide the
powers she shares
with her famous
cousin Superman

ON EARTH

HALO 5 : GUARDIANS

SOMEWHERE
TOTALLY MADE UP

Players assume
the role of Master
Chief, who returns
to ght aliens across
different ctional
planets

IN SPACE
THE MARTIAN
In Ridley Scotts epic,
an astronaut (Matt
Damon) struggles to
survive after being
stranded on Mars

PAN
After the orphan Peter is
spirited away to Neverland,
he must rely on friends like
Tiger Lily (Rooney Mara)
and battle Blackbeard
(Hugh Jackman)

400 DAYS

THE DOORS
OF STONE
The latest addition
to Patrick Rothfusss
Kingkiller Chronicle
series follows a
magician who hunts
down the mysterious
group that murdered
his family

DARK MATTER
Syfys latest
follows a crew
that wakes up in
deep space with
no memory of
their mission
or their identities

THE HUNGER GAMES :


MOCKINGJAY PART 2
Katniss (Jennifer
Lawrence), Gale
(Liam Hemsworth)
and the rest of the
District 13 rebel
army wage war on
Panems nefarious
Capitol city

STAR WARS :
THE FORCE AWAKENS
A SONG OF ICE AND
FIRE : THE WINDS OF
WINTER
George R.R. Martin is
almost done with the
long-awaited sixth novel
in the series that inspired
HBOs Game of Thrones

Thirty years after the


death of Darth Vader,
we return to a galaxy
far, far away

NO MANS SKY

A group of
astronauts (Ben
Feldman, Dane
Cook and others)
who think theyre
on a simulated
mission to test
the psychological
effects of deepspace travel exit
the ship to nd
themselves on a
distant planet

Players explore an innite


galaxy, navigating ancient
ruins and ghting off
potential predators

time December 29, 2014January 5, 2015

H A R DY, J A C K M A N : W A R N E R B R O S . ; E VA N S , R I D L E Y, R U D D, R O B E R T S O N : D I S N E Y; H A L O 5 B E TA : M I C R O S O F T S T U D I O S; N O M A N S S K Y: H E L L O G A M E S; L A W R E N C E : L I O N S G AT E

Frank (George Clooney)


and Casey (Britt
Robertson) travel to a
parallel universe known
as Tomorrowland, where
whatever they do affects
their lives on Earth

After a peacekeeping
superrobot goes
berserk, Iron Man
(Robert Downey Jr.),
Captain America
(Chris Evans) and
company must smack
it into submission

Ordinary people become


aware they have special
abilitiesmuch as they
did in NBCs 2006 version

ANT-MAN
TOMORROWLAND

AVENGERS :
AGE OF ULTRON

HEROES REBORN

H
C
T
A
W
O
T
H
C
U
.
SO M
G
N
I
P
P
O
R
D
S.
E
D
W
O
S
I
A
P
J
E
S & TV
E
I
IT S
V
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0
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T H E Y E A R A H E A D | C U LT U R E

INSECT BARS
Edible bugsa
novelty for many
get snackied with
a wave of protein
bars. Exo, Chapul
and others are now
selling bars made
with cricket our, a
gluten-free powder
thats high in protein
and healthy fats.

MEAD

THE FUTURE
OF FOOD
FANCY JERKY
You can thank the
paleo craze: this
once pedestrian
snack now comes in
various lean proteins,
from bison to salmon
to crocodile.

FROM K ALE HYBRIDS TO ANCIENT WINE,


HERES WHATS TRENDING FOR 2015
BY SARAH BEGLEY

ARCTIC CHAR
Wild salmon costs a
fortune, tuna can be high
in mercury, and shrimp
faces concerns about
sustainability. So what
to eat? Char. Salmons
avor cousin is packed
with protein and is usually
farmed in a way that poses
minimal risk of pollution.

KALETTES
Fans of kale and
brussels sprouts will
nd plenty to like in
kalettes, a non-GMO
hybrid with the savory
avor of its parent
cropsand their
nutritional qualities too.

Archaeological
evidence dates wine
made from honey to
as far back as 7000
B.C.and its about
to be more popular
than ever.

NEW YEAR, NEW ADVENTURES


TOP DESTINATIONS FOR TRAVELERS OF EVERY KIND
FROM ART ENTHUSIASTS TO HISTORY BUFFS
BY SAMANTHA GROSSMAN

1. MUSIC
Tennessee
A special series of
events beginning
Jan. 7 at Graceland,
Elvis Presleys Memphis home, will celebrate what would have
been the rock-n-roll
icons 80th birthday.
In addition to private
parties and tours, the
museum is hosting
an auction of 67 Elvis
artifacts, including two
diamond necklaces.

2. SPORTS
Azerbaijan
In June, the Azerbaijani capital, Baku,
will host the rst European Games, a
kind of Olympics for
continental Europe.
Athletes will compete

FERMENTED FOOD

6. DESIGN
4. ART

New York City


The Whitney Museum
of American Arts new
building, designed
3. LITERATURE
by Italian architect
Poland
Renzo Piano, will open
its doors on May 1.
Harry Potter diehards
Situated beside the
can re-create the
series at the stunning Hudson River, it will
include 50,000 sq. ft.
Czocha Castle
(4,600 sq m) of indoor
which looks just like
Hogwartsduring two galleries along with
outdoor exhibition
elaborate live-actionspace and terraces
role-play sessions
facing Manhattans
in April. After being
sorted into houses, at- High Line park.
tendees will don robes,
wield wands and take 5. RELIGION
classes at a ctional
Philadelphia
wizarding college.
In September, Pope
Francis will make his
rst-ever visit to the
U.S. Visitors will be
able to attend a free
public mass celebrated
by the Pontiff, which
ofcials estimate could

Sweden
An Ikea museum,
situated in the furniture
chains rst store in
Almhultknown as
Ikea Townis set to
open in the fall. Exhibits will explore the
companys 70-year
history as well as the
design of products.

7. HISTORY
Japan
After ve years of
renovations, the
17th century Himeji
Castle will fully reopen
in March. A UNESCO
World Heritage site,
it is considered one
of the most beautiful
castles in the world.

I L L U S T R AT I O N B Y D I E T E R B R A U N F O R T I M E

Research about the


benets of probioticrich foods like kimchi,
yogurt and sauerkraut
is mountingbut
the health-conscious
arent waiting for proof
before they dig in.

in events ranging from


badminton and boxing to taekwondo and
trampolining.

draw up to a million
people. The last papal
visit to the U.S. was in
2008, when Benedict
XVI addressed the U.N.
in New York City.

Photograph by Grant Cornett for TIME

107

T H E Y E A R A H E A D | C U LT U R E

BIG BOOT
Abby Wambach
has scored 177
international
goalsa record
for both women
and men

Photograph by Chris Hornbecker for TIME

AVENGING ABBY
THE WORLD CUP IS THE MOST IMPORTANT TITLE IN SOCCER
AND THE ONLY BIG ONE ABBY WAMBACH HAS NEVER WON.
2015 MAY BE THE LAST CHANCE FOR ONE OF THE GAMES ALL-TIME GREATS
B Y S E A N G R E G O R Y/ P O R T L A N D, O R E .

it would have been the perfect


moment to let go. Abby Wambach
had just led Team USA to the soccer gold medal in the 2012 London
Olympics, scoring a goal in ve
of the Americans six games. The
win gave Wambach her second
Olympic gold since joining the national team in 2001. And she was
32, a decade older than her youngest teammate. By that age Mia
Hamm, a mentor and the player
to whom Wambach is most often
compared, had already packed up
her cleats.
You have that ceremony, you
bow, you listen to the national

anthem, youre so happy, says


Wambach, recalling the feeling
from 2012 while stretched out on
hercouchonachillyDecemberday
at home in Portland, Ore. Then its
over, you step off that podium and
say, I want to do that again.
And with that, Wambach
turned her obsessive attention to
theupcomingwomensWorldCup.
Its the biggestprize in soccerand
the one major title she has never
won. This summers tournament
in Canada is likely Wambachs
last shot. A World Cup win would
givemeasense of completion,says
Wambach, and purpose.

T H E Y E A R A H E A D | C U LT U R E

You can trace a direct line from the current popularity of girls soccer in the U.S.
back to July 10, 1999. That was the day an
exultant Brandi Chastain stripped to her
sports bra after scoring the winning goal
in the rst womens World Cup played on
U.S. soil. The tournamentand the now
iconic image of Chastain celebrating on
the Rose Bowl eldsent interest in the
game soaring. Hamm, the teams star,
got her own video game. And young girls
rushed to join in: the number of girls playing high school soccer jumped 45% after
1999, according to the National Federation
of State High School Associations.
Even though the American team hasnt
won a World Cup since, the tournament
remains its biggest stage. The electric
2011 final between the U.S. and Japan
was then the most watched soccer game
in ESPN history, drawing some 13.5 million viewers. Thats partly good timing:
the knockout games are in late June and
early July, after March Madness and the
NBA playoffs, before the NFL opens training camp and as Major League Baseball
enters the seasons dog days. And unlike
at the Olympics, there are no swimmers
or gymnasts to hog the spotlight. The
World Cup is the closest womens soccer
ever comes to having the nations undivided attention. Between tournaments,
interest plummets: two U.S. womens pro
leagues have folded in the past 12 years.
The title drought has been especially cruel
for Wambach, who has become one of the
games greats. She eclipsed Hamm as the
all-time international goal scorer, womens or mensWambach now has 177 to
Hamms 158and is a nalist for the 2014
FIFA Womens World Player of the Year
award. As of Dec. 18, the U.S. team was
ranked No. 1 in the world.
Wambach has lately become a force
off the eld too. She is leading the ght to
have the 2015 World Cup played on grass,
as every mens tournament has been,
rather than on the scheduled articial
turf. And in 2013 she became perhaps the
highest-prole gay American athlete to get
married.
And so just when others might be nally moving on, Wambach cant quit yet. All
the hardships, the sacrices, the blood,
the sweat, the broken bones, the broken
relationships will make more sense if we
110

can bring home the trophy, Wambach


says. And if the U.S. falls short again? Im
sure Ill be ne. But Ill be pissed off the
rest of my life.

HEAD GAMES
wambach grew up in suburban rochester, N.Y., the youngest of seven children,
born over 11 years. To deal with the chaos,
her mother Judy would often send the
kids outside and lock the doors until they
tired. The athletic brood devised games to
pass the time, and a favorite was dressing
their youngest sibling in hockey gear and
ring pucks at her. We would just start
whaling, says Laura Wambach, a middleschool teacher and one of Abbys sisters.
And I dont ever remember her crying. It
was a preview of the toughness shes now
known for. In 2010, Wambach suffered a
bloody gash late in a World Cup qualier.
In YouTube footage thats been viewed
hundreds of thousands of times, Wambach can be seen grimacing but otherwise
standing still as a team doctor staple-guns
her forehead back together.
After a stellar high school career
though shes still rankled by losing the
state title game her senior yearWambach
chose to attend Florida over the University
of North Carolina, Hamms alma mater
and a womens-soccer powerhouse. Florida had begun its womens team just four
seasons earlier to comply with Title IX,
and Wambachs impact was immediate.
In 1998, her freshman year, Florida made
it to the national championship game,

I LL BE PI S S E D
OFF TH E REST
OF MY LI FE .

WA M B A C H , O N W H AT LO S I N G T H E
2 015 W O R L D C U P W O U L D M E A N

against UNC. Channeling the ferocity that


her U.S. teammates refer to as crazy eyes,
Wambach took command of a second-half
huddle and told the team that they were
simply not allowed to lose. They didnt. It
required a certain level of intensity to be
on the same eld with Abby, says Florida
coach Becky Burleigh. Shes bringing it
how can you not?
Wambach was similarly vocal when
she joined the national team in late 2001.
Legends like Hamm made most rookies
sheepish. Yet Wambachwho had a poster of the superstar on her bedroom wall
growing uptalked so much that the
team got her a T-shirt that read, help ! im
talking and i cant shut up !
Since she was a kid, Wambachs
heightshes now 5 ft. 11 in. (180 cm)
and strength have overpowered opponents. Shes especially adept at positioning
her frame to rocket over defenders and
head the ball into the goal. Shes the best
player in the world, all-time, in the air,
says Pia Sundhage, the U.S. coach from
2007 to 2012. A spectacular header in the
quarternals of the 2011 World Cup saved
the U.S. from eliminationand helped
turn Wambach into a celebrity. The
most surprising thing was the grown
men, 30-year-old guys in the bar watching
football, being like, Holy sh-t, Abby Wambach, I want to take a picture of you, says
Sarah Huffman, Wambachs wife. After
Wambach used her noggin to score the
decisive goal in the 2004 Olympic goldmedal game, U.S. vet Julie Foudy kissed
Wambachs forehead and said, Thank
God for that dome!
Her signature move, however, has
come under increased scrutiny because of
the growing awareness of brain trauma
linked to sports. Girls soccer has the second highest concussion rate in high school
athletics, after football. One prominent
concussion expert says heading should be
banned for all players under 14. Wambach
disagrees and says heading safely is a matter of practice and technique: brace your
neck muscles when the ball approaches
and ram all the way through. If you actually go to impact the ball, your body is
ready for it, she says.
That skill helped turn Wambach into a
top scorer for the national team, and after
Hamm retired in 2004, Wambach took her
time December 29, 2014January 5, 2015

place as the franchise player. But her rise


coincided with the exit of other 99 stars
like Chastain and Foudy and a decline in
attention for the national team. Girls participation on the youth and high school
levels was still growing, but womens
matches struggled to draw spectators. A
pro league launched in 2009 disbanded after the 2011 season.
Wambach felt responsible for the falloff. She thinks that not having what she
calls Hamms all-American look contributed. Im honest enough to know
that does play a role, the sex-symbol part of
womens sports, says Wambach. I dont
think its right, but it is what it is. And its
clear that the presence of the young, highly marketable phenom Alex Morgan on
the 2011 World Cup team helped restore
some of the buzz. Its not because Alex is
pretty, Wambach says. But it helps.
Wambach, who says she rst came out
to her teammates and family at 22, never
publicly discussed her sexuality before
marrying Huffman, a former pro soccer
player. (The couple has a civil union but
plans to make the marriage ofcial in Oregon, where its now legal). I dont stand
on top of a mountain and go, Im gay, hear
me roar, says Wambach. But she says
shes realized that she can be a role model
for young people struggling with their
sexuality. Of course, there have been moments where Im like, Geez, should I have
kept my hair long? Wambach says. But
Im willing to take the risk of being myself
and not appealing to the masses. And if
theres a kid out there who can look at me
and go, Im like her, Im comfortable, Im
proud of that. Thats a win.

G E T T Y I M A G E S (4)

THE FINAL FIGHT


wambach heads into this world cup
with the added burden of taking on FIFA
over its decision to have the women play
on articial surfaces. A complaint led
with the Human Rights Tribunal of Ontario accuses FIFA and the Canadian Soccer Association of discrimination against
female players. Thats where they are so
corrupt, Wambach says of FIFA. In that
theyre like, Well, its our way, and we
wont tell you why. We dont have to.
In an email, FIFA secretary general
Jrme Valcke said Canadian sports ofcials proposed playing on turf because

THE FUTURE
IS NOW
BY JACK DICKEY

The lone hope of an otherwise lost


season (ask Astros fans) comes
from new prospects. Heres whos
due to emerge in 2015.

BASEBALL
Kris Bryant, 3B, Chicago Cubs
Bryant, picked No. 2
overall in 2013, wowed
with 43 minor-league
homers in 2014. He
and Anthony Rizzo will
give the rising Cubs
a pair of old-school
sluggersgood luck
pitching around both.

BASKETBALL
Jahlil Okafor, C, Duke
The 6-ft. 11-in. Okafors
low-post moves made him
most everyones top
high school player in
2014. After a year
at Duke, hell
quickly help the
NBA team that
snags him.

HOCKEY
Connor McDavid, C, Erie Otters
It says a lot about McDavid, and
the NHL, that he broke his hand
ghting and remained the consensus top pick.
He projects as the
kind of playmaking savant
who can save a team.

FOOTBALL
Marcus Mariota, QB, Oregon
A precise passer (2014 stats:
38 touchdowns, two interceptions) and deft runner (5.7 yd.
per carry, 14 TDs). The
Heisman-winning Hawaiian
could be a taller Russell
Wilsonand rst
off the board
in April.

most sporting infrastructure in Canada


is on articial turf. Yet FIFA has made
special arrangements for grass surfaces
before. During the 1994 mens World Cup
in the U.S., temporary grass surfaces were
installed in Giants Stadium in New Jersey and the Silverdome outside Detroit.
If you sit here and tell me that the mens
World Cup would ever be played on an articial surface, Ill tell you youre a liar,
says Wambach. And when you force
women to play on turf and not the men,
what does that say? That just lessens the
value of what we do. Its a clear violation
of dignity, period.
Most soccer players prefer grass elds.
The ball takes trickier bounces on turf,
and grass produces less strain on knee ligaments, according to a 2010 study in the
Journal of Biomechanical Engineering. Turf
also has the potential to curb the sorts of
passionate scoring celebrations that help
endear fans. Would players slide across
the eld if it means burning their knees?
Theyre taking the joy away, Wambach
says. I mean, what are we going to do? Go
over to the corner ag and box it? Its just
stupid, and its totally preventable.
Yet its a ght Wambach is unlikely to
win. And whether the games are played
on grass or moon rocks, a victory will
give her career the same capstone, a loss
the same permanent sting.
Winning wont be easy. The U.S. has
been placed in the Group of Death with
two other top-10 teams: Swedennow
coached by Sundhage, whos deeply familiar with the American personneland
Australia. Nigeria also has impressive
young talent. Other countries are investing more in the womens game, and the
rest of the world has made huge strides
since 99. Before, it was O.K. to just lump
it forward and see what we can do, says
Wambach. We had a little more of a head
start on other countries. Now theyre better, theyre faster, theyre stronger.
But Wambach has a habit of peaking
in the major moments. She wants it more
than any other player, says Hamm. Its
inspiring. And Wambach craves this
World Cup more than anything. We have
to push our limits, she says. Thats what
makes it fun, what makes me come back
for more. I honestly dont know what my
limits are. Im here to nd out.

111

THE YEAR AHEAD | HISTORY

2015 ANNIVERSARIES
MOMENTS FROM THE PAST YOURE SURE TO HEAR ABOUT IN THE FUTURE
B Y L I LY R O T H M A N

5TH

0TH

JAN. 21: CITIZENS


UNITED DECISION

OCT. 21: MARTY


MCFLYS ARRIVAL
IN THE FUTURE

The U.S. Supreme Court


struck down regulations on
corporate political spending.
As the 2016 elections
approach, those freed-up
dollars are likely to ow.

Its been more than


two decades since
Back to the Future
Part II, in which
Michael J. Foxs
character traveled
to ... 2015. Your
social-media feeds
will be ooded by
people disappointed
were not all
riding around on
hoverboards.

10TH
APRIL 23: FIRST
YOUTUBE VIDEO

50TH
MARCH 7: MARTIN
LUTHER KING JR.S FIRST
MARCH FROM SELMA

Its 16.7 million views


would be nothing for a
top post today. But the
18-second clip, Me at
the Zoo, starring YouTube
co-founder Jawed Karim,
is likely to be heavily
rewatched as it reaches
its 10-year milestone.

It would take three


attempts before the
marchers nally made
it from Selma to
Montgomery, Ala., during
a year full of civil rights
milestones. Retrospective
coverage will likely also
focus on the assassination
of Malcolm X on Feb. 21
in New York City.

50TH
MARCH 2: FILM
Julie Andrews
as Maria was a
revelation. [The
movie] satises,
TIME wrote in its
original review,
nearly all the
requirements for what
moviemakers tout
as wholesome family
entertainment.

75TH
MAY 15: MCDONALDS
OPENING
Brothers Richard and
Maurice McDonald
opened the rst
restaurant to bear their
name in San Bernardino,
Calif. Ray Kroc later took
the franchise global;
today, there are more
than 35,000 locations
worldwide.

112

150TH
APRIL 9 : END OF THE
CIVIL WAR
The sesquicentennial
of the U.S.s bloodiest
conict is about to draw to
an end, as the date arrives
on which Robert E. Lee
surrendered to Ulysses S.
Grant. And April 14 marks
the 150th anniversary
of Abraham Lincolns
assassination.

time December 29, 2014January 5, 2015

0 T H : E V E R E T T; 5 T H : A P ; 10 T H : YO U T U B E .C O M ; 5 0 T H , 1 5 0 T H : G E T T Y I M A G E S (3); 75 T H : M C D O N A L D S C O R P.

PREMIERE OF THE
SOUND OF MUSIC

Its just ordinary fleece,


cut into a 5 x 7 rectangle.
But when everything
else has been lost,
the comfort it provides
is immeasurable.

This blanket is one of the ways the American Red Cross brings
help and hope to people across the country whove experienced
disasters, every eight minutes, every day, all year long. We couldnt
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2014 The American National Red Cross. All rights reserved. 92703

THE YEAR AHEAD | PREDICTIONS

CRYSTAL BALLERS
SILICON VALLEYS TOP INVESTORS PREDICT A BIG YEAR
FOR BITCOIN, EXTRUDED GASTRONOMY AND ME
BY JOEL STEIN

Still, self-interest is exactly what fuels

progress in capitalism, which makes the


invisible hand a better place to go to for
predictions than the withered, spotted
hands of the pundits on cable news who
just predict that their party will do well.
So I got Tim Draper, who owns tens of
millions of dollars worth of bitcoins, to
114

predict that in 2015 a bitcoin will go from


its current price$324 as Im checking
right nowto over $2,000. Draper, who
also happens to have spent millions in
a failed attempt to get an initiative on
the ballot to split California into six
states, predicts that there will be more
movements to create new states. He also
thought the stock market would go up
more than 20%. Im going to boldly predict that Draper owns some stocks.
Others didnt even bother to pretend
they werent promoting themselves.
Tony Conrad, a VC who also started
About.me, a site where people post short
biographical pages about themselves,
predicted that reputation and identity
[will] become even more central to our
online existence. Then he removed the
tiny bit of subtext and added, When we
launched About.me in 2013, we anticipated this issue, and judging from our
growth, it looks like were on an excellent path. Im surprised he didnt predict
that, following the lead of About.me,
everyone will get a domain name from
Montenegro. Because really, the ultimate
website for 2015 would be a scrolling list
of seles on Me.me.

Dave Hornik, a partner at August


Capital, was my freshman-year resident
assistant at Stanford, and while he did
fund Evite and StumbleUpon, I doubt
his ability to see the future, solely based
on the fact that he didnt predict that my
girlfriend in our dorm that year would
later marry a woman. Still, Hornik must
have invested in much more interesting
stuff than Draper and Conrad, because
he predicted the rise of extruded gastronomy, in which chefs do cool stuff
with 3-D-printed food. He then smartly
predicted that no one will call it extruded
gastronomy, because that sounds really
gross. And Yahoo, he thinks, will be
bought by someone. This was particularly interesting, since I had no idea that
Yahoo was still owned by anyone.
Sam Altman, who runs Y Combinator,

which funds companies before VCs even


get to them, predicts that interest rates
will stay near zero, while people get even
more upset about income inequality,
which seemed to be his way of trying to
get those Google-bus protesters to stay
away from his apartment. John Lilly,
a partner at Greylock Partners who
went to college with me and also never
mentioned that lesbian thing, thinks
smart-home appliances are going to become popular, which didnt seem that
impressive, since Time did a cover story
saying the same thing in June. And were
an institution that is putting its nances
behind a prediction that people will continue to read things on paper.
Putting all these condent, optimistic
predictions together, its clear that we can
expect a massive crash in the tech sector.
I mean, come onprinted food? An East
West Virginia and a West West Virginia?
I think 2015 is going to be the year when
VCs have to put their money into older industries, like humor columnists. Otherwise, I wasted my time using this as an

excuse to meet them.


time December 29, 2014January 5, 2015

I L L U S T R AT I O N B Y T O M A S Z W A L E N TA F O R T I M E ; G E T T Y I M A G E S (2)

predictions are snare


traps for egomaniacs.
Thats because, unlike me,
they only think they know
everything. I, however,
have a deep understanding of how the
world is shifting because Ive been to
Silicon Valley.
All the changes happening in the
world come from there, as long as you
dene the world as upper-class, urbandwelling, college-educated young people
who constantly stare at their phones.
And the people who determine which
of these changes happen are venture
capitalists, since they decide how many
millions of dollars to give to each Stanford undergraduate. So this year I asked
them what they predict will happen
by looking in their crystal balls, which
are actually real Swarovski sculptures
they throw at each other because it
never snows there.
There were a few things I hadnt
calculated on, however. First of all,
venture capitalists are super boring.
Like, all they wanted to talk about were
nerdy computer things. Not one of them
picked which candidates would win
the 2015 congressional elections, and
I dont think it was because there are
no elections in 2015. The VC guys have
lobbyists who could easily x that. And
far worse, they werent at all objective.
It turns out that when you dump millions of your rms dollars into crazy
ideas and a journalist calls, you just start
talking about those crazy ideas until he
nally hangs up.

2014 Splintek, Inc.

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THE YEAR AHEAD | QUIZ

10 QUESTIONS
THIS TIME, THEYRE FOR YOU. PRACTICE YOUR PUNDITRY
BY PREDICTING 2015S MAJOR NEWS EVENTS

1. PRESIDENT OBAMA WILL SEND


ADDITIONAL FORCES TO IRAQ TO FIGHT
ISIS :
a) Within 100 days of his State of the
Union message
b) Only in some neoconservatives
wildest dreams
c) Covertly

2. BY YEARS END, WHO WILL HAVE


THE UPPER HAND IN IRAQ?
a) The U.S. Army
b) The Kurdish peshmerga

9. THE APPLE WATCH,


WHICH GOES ON SALE
IN 2015, WILL:

a) The millionperson crowd on the


Benjamin Franklin
Parkway

b) Fail, crippling CEO


Tim Cooks ability to
lead the company into
new areas

b) A private audience with victims of


pedophile priests
c) The long list of
2016 presidential
candidates jockeying
to appear close to
the Holy Father
d) His stirring homily
about Net neutrality

c) Iran-backed Shiite militias


d) The Iraqi army
e) None of the above

3. THIS AGING MONARCH WILL FINALLY


GIVE UP THE THRONE IN 2015:
a) The U.K.s Queen Elizabeth II

5. WHICH OF
THE FOLLOWING
WILL PROVE TO
BE THE PREMIUM
COMMODITY OF
2015?
a) Billboard space in
Silicon Valley

b) Saudi Arabias King Abdullah

b) Shale-oil-carrying
railroad tank cars

c) Los Angeles Kobe Bryant

c) 3-D printers

d) Malaysias Abdul Halim

d) Land and condos


in Miami

a) Be the biggest new


technology launch
since the iPad

6. IN JULY, NASAS NEW HORIZONS


PROBE WILL:
a) Lift off
b) Arrive at Jupiters moon Europa
c) Begin its exploration of Pluto
and the Kuiper Belt
d) Continue its study of comet 67P
while in elliptical orbit

7. HILLARY CLINTONS CHIEF


ANTAGONIST IN THE DEMOCRATIC
PARTY IN 2015 WILL BE :
a) Jerry Brown
b) James Webb

d) Finally kick-start
the wearable-tech
revolution

c) Bill Clinton
d) Elizabeth Warren

8. REPUBLICANS IN CONGRESS WILL:


a) Prove just as unable to pass legislation in the majority as they were in the
minority
b) Vote to curtail tax breaks for wind
and solar energy under pressure from
the Koch brothers
c) Appoint a special committee to
investigate evidence of high crimes and
misdemeanors by Barack Obama
d) Fail to repeal Obamacare or overturn Obamas immigration orders

10. THE SURPRISE


IN STAR WARS : THE
FORCE AWAKENS
WILL BE :
a) The whole thing is
shot in Instagram with
a Sierra lter
b) The cantina band is
still playing the same
damn song
c) No actor is harmed
by that new threeprong lightsaber
d) Galaxy is revealed to
be in the near future
and not too far away

Editors predictions: 1. a; 2. e; 3. c; 4. c; 5. d; 6. c; 7. d; 8. b; 9. d; 10. c

116

c) Lead to a wave
of distracted-driver,
distracted-walker and
distracted-spouse
accidents

O B A M A : A P ; Q U E E N E L I Z A B E T H , K I N G A B D U L L A H , A B D U L H A L I M , B R YA N T, P O P E , B R O W N , W A R R E N : G E T T Y I M A G E S; N E W H O R I ZO N S : N A S A ; A P P L E W AT C H : A P P L E

d) Before Jeb Bush


ofcially kicks off his
campaign for the GOP
nomination on his
fathers 91st birthday, in mid-June

4. POPE FRANCIS
VISIT TO
PHILADELPHIA
IN SEPTEMBER
WILL BE
REMEMBERED
MOST FOR :

Youve always known the importance


of planning for retirement.
We have that in common.
Merrill Edge can streamline your investing and help you reach
your full retirement potential.

To get started, visit merrilledge.com/streamlined


Bank with Bank of America. Invest with Merrill Edge.

Merrill Edge is available through Merrill Lynch, Pierce, Fenner & Smith Incorporated (MLPF&S), and consists of the Merrill Edge Advisory Center (investment guidance) and self-directed
online investing.
Investment products:

Are Not FDIC Insured Are Not Bank Guaranteed

May Lose Value

MLPF&S is a registered broker-dealer, member SIPC and a wholly owned subsidiary of BofA. Banking products are provided by Bank of America, N.A., member FDIC and a wholly owned subsidiary of BofA.
2014 Bank of America Corporation. All rights reserved.
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THE OWNERS
HAVE SPOKEN.

The Mazda6, Awarded the Highest Ranked


Vehicle Appeal among Midsize Cars.-2014 J.D. Power
Since its introduction, the redesigned Mazda6 has received high praise across the industry.
None more important than J.D. Powers Highest Ranked Vehicle Appeal among Midsize Cars*
award. Unlike with other awards, actual owners ranked the Mazda6 highest in this category.
With a cutting-edge, KODO-inspired design, thoughtful safety features, Mazdas exclusive

SKYACTIV TECHNOLOGY combining efciency with performance, and up to a best-in-class,


EPA-estimated 40 highway MPG its easy to see how the owners came to their decision.

MazdaUSA.com

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*The Mazda6 received the highest numerical score among midsize cars in the proprietary J.D. Power 2014 Automotive Performance Execution and Layout (APEAL) Study.SM Study
based on 86,118 total responses from new-vehicle owners of 239 models and measures opinions after 90 days of ownership. Proprietary study results are based on experiences and
perceptions of owners surveyed in February-May 2014. Your experiences may vary. Visit jdpower.com. Based on EPA estimates for 2015 Mazda6 Grand Touring models with Technology
Package 28 city/40 highway MPG. Actual results will vary. SOURCE: Preliminary 2015 Fuel Economy Guide, November 6, 2014 (fueleconomy.gov).

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