Hiptesis del modelo econmico

HIPTESIS DEL MODELO ECONMICO

VARIABLES DEL NEGOCIO
Nmero de plazas
Das de apertura anuales
Ocupacin Ao 1
Ocupacin a nivel de crucero (Ao 4)
Precio medio habitacin
Precio desayuno
% clientes que desayunan
Precio almuerzo + cena
% clientes que almuerzan y cenan
Precio medio otras consumiciones
% clientes que consumen
Costes directos por cliente
Comisiones por ingresos habitaciones
Costes materias primas
Costes de Personal
Costes de administarcin y generales
Costes comerciales y marketing
Costes de energa y mantenimiento

180
365
50%
65%
19
3
100%
12
85%
3
75%
0.5
1.5%
30%
450,000
35,000
50,000
65,000

INVERSIN NECERSARIA
Construccin Residencia
Instalaciones, equipamiento y mobiliario
Arquitectos, permisos y licencias
Fondo maniobra
Resultado negativo explotacin hasta apertura
Plan de Negocio
APALANCAMIENTO
Tipo de inters
% apalancamiento sobre inversin
Plazo de la deuda (sin incluir carencia)

OTRAS HIPPTESIS
Amortizacin = reinversin en inmueble
Amortizacin = reinversin en equipamientos
Tipo impositivo
Inflacin

2,950,000
400,000
500,000
100,000
300,000
60,000

4%
0%
15

2%
10%
35%
3%

Resultados del modelo econmico

RESULTADO OPERATIVO
INGRESOS
Ingresos habitaciones
Ingresos restaurante

Ao -2

Ao -1

Total Ingresos

RESULTADO OPERATIVO
(-) Amortizacin inmuebles
(-) Amortizacin equipamientos
(-) Intereses
(=) B ANTES IMPUESTOS
(+) Crdito Fiscal (Prdidas acumuladas)
(-) Impuestos
(=) B DESPUES IMPUESTOS
(+) Amortizacin
(+) Intereses
(-) Inversiones y Reinversiones Inmueble
(-) Inversiones y Reinversiones equipamiento
(-) Inversin fondo maniobra
(-) Inversin Plan de negocio
(=) FLUJO DE CAJA DEL PROYECTO
(-) Devolucin deuda
(=) FLUJO DE CAJA LIBRE
FLUJO DE CAJA DEL ACCIONISTA
INVERSIN TOTAL
INVERSIN ACCIONISTAS
TIR ACCIONISTAS

Ao 3

Ao 4

Ao 5

Ao 6

Ao 7

Ao 8

Ao 9

Ao 10

-150,000
Ao -2

Ao 38

1,422,786
1,156,950
2,579,736

1,912,105
1,554,844
3,466,949

2,422,198
1,969,629
4,391,827

-150,000

32,829
193,839
477,405
37,132
53,045
68,959
863,208
577,514

36,632
216,292
491,727
38,245
54,636
71,027
908,560
699,046

37,731
222,781
506,479
39,393
56,275
73,158
935,817
720,017

38,863
229,464
521,673
40,575
57,964
75,353
963,891
741,618

40,029
41,230
42,466
43,740
236,348
243,438
250,742
258,264
537,324
553,443
570,047
587,148
41,792
43,046
44,337
45,667
59,703
61,494
63,339
65,239
77,613
79,942
82,340
84,810
992,808 1,022,592 1,053,270 1,084,868
763,866
786,782
810,386
834,698

58,784
347,085
789,078
61,373
87,675
113,978
1,457,972
1,121,764

79,000
466,453
1,060,454
82,480
117,828
153,177
1,959,393
1,507,557

100,075
590,889
1,343,352
104,483
149,261
194,040
2,482,100
1,909,728

Ao -1

Ao 1

Ao 2

Ao 3

Ao 4

Ao 5

Ao 6

Ao 7

Ao 8

Ao 9

Ao 10

Ao 20

Ao 30

Ao 38

353,636
69,000
40,000
0
244,636
-300,000
0
244,636
109,000
0
71,070
41,200

462,469
70,421
44,120
0
347,928
-55,365
102,397
245,531
114,541
0
73,202
42,436

577,514
71,885
48,364
0
457,265
0
160,043
297,222
120,249
0
75,398
43,709

699,046
73,393
52,735
0
572,918
0
200,521
372,397
126,128
0
77,660
45,020

720,017
74,947
57,237
0
587,834
0
205,742
382,092
132,183
0
79,990
46,371

741,618
76,546
61,874
0
603,198
0
211,119
392,079
138,420
0
82,390
47,762

763,866
78,194
66,650
0
619,022
0
216,658
402,365
144,844
0
84,861
49,195

786,782
79,891
71,569
0
635,322
0
222,363
412,959
151,461
0
87,407
50,671

810,386
81,640
76,636
0
652,110
0
228,238
423,871
158,276
0
90,029
52,191

834,698 1,121,764 1,507,557 1,909,728

83,440
104,701
133,274
163,060
81,856
83,378
81,172
103,466
0
0
0
0
669,402
933,685 1,293,110 1,643,202
0
0
0
0
234,291
326,790
452,589
575,121
435,111
606,895
840,522 1,068,081
165,296
188,079
214,446
266,526
0
0
0
0
92,730
124,622
167,481
212,160
53,757
72,244
97,090
122,991
-307,478

241,366
0
241,366
241,366

244,434
0
244,434
244,434

298,364
0
298,364
298,364

375,844
0
375,844
375,844

387,915
0
387,915
387,915

400,347
0
400,347
400,347

413,152
0
413,152
413,152

426,342
0
426,342
426,342

439,927
0
439,927
439,927

453,920
0
453,920
453,920

-150,000

0
-150,000

0
-150,000
-150,000
0
-150,000
0
0
1,475,000
400,000
100,000

60,000
-2,185,000 -2,125,000
0
0
-2,185,000 -2,125,000
-2,185,000 -2,125,000
4,310,000
4,310,000
10%

Ao 30

29,217
172,510
463,500
36,050
51,500
66,950
819,727
462,469

-150,000

0
-150,000
0
0
1,975,000

Ao 20

25,787
152,260
450,000
35,000
50,000
65,000
778,047
353,636

Total Costes

FLUJOS DE CAJA

Ao 2

624,150
707,162
794,593
886,633
913,232
940,629
968,848
997,914 1,027,851 1,058,686
507,533
575,034
646,129
720,973
742,602
764,880
787,826
811,461
835,805
860,879
1,131,683 1,282,196 1,440,722 1,607,606 1,655,834 1,705,509 1,756,675 1,809,375 1,863,656 1,919,566

COSTES
Gastos directos habitaciones
Gastos directos restaurante
Personal
Administarcin y generales
Comercial y marketing
Energa y mantenimiento
RESULTADO OPERATIVO

Ao 1

598,108
0
598,108
598,108

790,396 1,306,934
0
0
790,396 1,306,934
790,396 1,306,934