Hermes Associates

LIBYA Security and Political Awareness Report

05 January 2015 to 11 January 2015
Executive Summary
The week in Libya continued the general theme of the last few weeks. Fighting between the Tobruk government and
the Tripoli regime continued in the Central and Western regions. In the East the Islamic State forces in Derna
continued to push at the forces loyal to Tobruk in the region around them. The aftermath of the Libyan airstrike on
the oil tanker in Derna Port on 04.01 continued to be felt.
Politically the Tobruk government and Tripoli regime remain at loggerheads, while the international community
leans towards the Tobruk government being the legitimate administration, they have yet to really demonstrate
support. The UN has continued its efforts to try and mediate an end to the current clash, but the efforts of the UN
representative Bernadino Leon are unlikely to yield any result.

Contents

Security Analysis

Eastern Region

Central Region

Western Region

News Summary

Security News

Business News

Humanitarian News

Political News

Commentary

Security Analysis
EASTERN REGION
The Eastern Region saw continuing violence with 13
incidents reported, claiming at least 28 killed and 59
injured.
Benghazi is still witnessing heavy fighting between
General Hiftars Operation Karama (Dignity) forcesthough these were rebadged as the Libyan National
Army with official endorsement. Fighting is mostly
taking place in the Al-Liti and As-Sabri areas of
Benghazi. The Karama forces are facing off against the
Benghazi Shura Council an alliance of the Islamist Ansar
Al-Sharia, Abu Battar Brigade and February 17 Brigade
militias. It is notable that the Karama forces have still
been unable to secure Benghazi even though they have
now been fighting since May.
The East also saw an increase in activity around Derna
with Islamic State forces attacking a Karama checkpoint
on 08.01. IS in Derna is allied to ISIS in Syria and has it is
reported received support including personnel and
equipment. On 08.01 IS in Derna also announced that it
had executed 2 Tunisian journalists kidnapped in
September, though the Tunisian government has
announced it cannot verify this announcement. IS are
also in a position to interdict movement in the local
area- in recent weeks they have kidnapped numerous
people travelling on the main road. On 05.01 an IS
checkpoint at Mechili stopped an LNA soldier traveling
in a civilian vehicle and executed him.
It is doubtful at this stage whether we will see Benghazi
secured within the next few months. The BSC forces
opposing the Karama alliance are still embedded into
key areas. The growing power of the IS forces in Derna
remains a major concern. In addition to their ability to
hold the city, there are reports of IS militants being
trained to carry out attacks elsewhere including
neighboring countries, potentially leading to
destabilization of the entire region.

Incident Map 1, Eastern Region

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Mechili. 05.01 IS (Derna) execute captured LNA soldier.

Al Marj. 07.01 Karama (LNA) militia detain anti-Karama
protestors.
Al Beida. 07.01 Labraq airport closed due to security concern.
Benghazi. 07.01 Fajr/ BSC militia attack on Karama (LNA)
positions. 17 injured.
Benghazi. 07.01 Fajr/ BSC militia attack on Karama (LNA) patrol.
1 killed.
Derna. 08.01 IS (Derna) claim to have executed 2 journalists.
Ain Mara. 08.01 IS (Derna) attack Karama (LNA) checkpoint. 9
killed 15 injured.
Benghazi. 08.01 2 unidentified bodies found.
Benghazi. 08.01 Karama (LNA) attack Fajr/ BSC militia. 4 killed 7
injured.
Benghazi. 09.01 Karama (LNA) attack Fajr/ BSC militia positions.
4 killed 6 injured.
Benghazi. 09.01 Karama (LNA) attack Fajr/ BSC militia positions.
2 killed 4 injured.
Benghazi. 09.01 Karama (LNA) attack Fajr/ BSC militia positions.
10 injured.
Benghazi. 10.01 Fajr/ BSC militia IED attack on Karama (LNA)
patrol. 3 killed.

Confidential not to be disseminated externally without permission of Hermes Associates

CENTRAL REGION
The Central Region saw 6 incidents this week, claiming
at least 3 killed and 10 injured.
The Islamist Operation Fajr (Dawn) offensive to take the
oil ports along the coast of the Gulf of Sidra. This
offensive made the headlines recently when rockets set
oil storage tanks as the port of Es-Sider ablaze. At
present Fajr forces are fighting Karama units in the
vicinity of Bin Jawad to the west of the critical
petrochemical facilities of Ras Lanuf.
At the present time airpower is the only area that the
Karama forces have superiority in this allows them to
perform airstrikes at both the strategic and tactical
levels. Strategic airstrikes were carried out on targets in
Sirte including Fajr forces from Misrata and the seaport
area. Tactically Karama is also deploying air assets to
support ground operations with helicopter gunships
being used at Bin Jawad to support the forces resisting
the Fajr offensive.
Of concern are reports that Ansar Al Sharia in Sirte is
leaning towards aligning with the Islamic State in Derna.
This would allow the radical jihadists of the Islamic
State a further toehold on Libyas sea coast and in time
forestall any operation by Karama forces to push
towards Tripoli.

Incident Map 2, Central Region

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Bin Jawad. 05.01 Fajr militia attack Karama (LNA) positions. 2

injured.
Al-Jufra. 06.01 Karama (LNA) conduct airstrikes on Fajr
(Misrata) position at airport. 3 injured.
Bin Jawad. 05.01 Karama (LNA) conduct airstrikes on Fajr
(Misrata) militia positions. 1 killed.
Ras Lanuf. 07.01 Unknown gang loot housing and offices at oil
complex.
Sirte. 10.01 Karama (LNA) conduct airstrikes on Fajr (Misrata)
position at seaport. 2 killed 4 injured.
Sirte. 11.01 Karama (LNA) conduct airstrikes on Fajr (Misrata)
position at seaport. 1 injured.
Sebha. 11.01 Municipal Guard officer survives assassination
attempt. 1 injured.

Confidential not to be disseminated externally without permission of Hermes Associates

WESTERN REGION
The Western Region saw continuing violence with 16
incidents reported, claiming at least 8 killed and 26
injured.
The bulk of incidents occurred along the north coast
with Karama forces conducting airstrikes on Fajr targets
in and around Misrata.
Tripoli remains under Fajr control with the regime they
have installed- the former GNC- retaining control of the
governmental infrastructure. However, while Tripoli is
witness to less fighting than earlier this year- being
under control of Operation Fajr forces- the city remains
dangerous. This week saw the offices of the pro-Fajr Al
Naba TV damaged in an RPG attack and RPGs were also
used to attack a Fajr militia unit on 10.01.
There is also information that Operation Fajr forces
have been able to repair and refit at least 2 MIG 23
fighter planes and that these launched from Mitiga
airport on 10.01. Thus far Operation Karama has
retained air superiority across Libya, if Fajr are able to
challenge this control of the skies it is a sign that the
war is entering a new stage.
We have also had disturbing reports of increasing
Islamisation of Tripoli. On 08.01 gunmen destroyed a
ladies salon for promoting un-Islamic activities. There
are also signs of the presence of Islamic State jihadists
in Tripoli working alongside Fajr forces.
Elsewhere in the Western region, fighting is ongoing in
the vicinity of Al-Watiyah, with Fajr forces attacking the
positions of Zintani militia allied with Operation
Karama.
There is no sign of the situation in the Western region
stabilizing in the near future. Although forces from
Zintan are allied with Operation Karama they are being
held south of Tripoli by dug in Fajr forces and although
Karama are conducting airstrikes, there has been little
movement for several weeks.

Incident Map 3, Western Region

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Misrata. 06.01 Karama (LNA) conduct airstrikes on Fajr

(Misrata) position at airport. 2 killed 1 injured.
Ajaylat. 07.01 Fajr (Zawiya) militia attack Karama (Zintani)
militia positions. 5 injured.
Tripoli. 08.01 Pro Fajr Al Naba TV offices damaged by RPG
attack.
Tripoli. 08.01 Unknown gunmen carry out grenade attack on
hair salon.
Zawiya. 08.01 Home of HOR Deputy President destroyed by
pro-Fajr militia.
Ubari. 08.01 Clashes between Tebu and local militias. 3 killed 7
injured.
Ghat. 08.01 Tebu militia stop aid convoy from reaching Ghat.
Misrata. 08.01 Fajr (Misrata) detain 137 illegal immigrants at
checkpoint.
Misrata. 08.01 Community leader Khalifa al-Maliki injured in
assassination attempt.
Misrata. 09.01 Karama (LNA) conduct airstrikes on Fajr
(Misrata) militia base.
Tripoli. 10.01 Unknown gunmen conduct RPG attack on Fajr
militia base. 2 injured.
Tripoli. 10.01 Fajr fighter jets take off from Mitiga.
Tripoli. 10.01 Build-up of IS militia
Misrata. 10.01 Karama (LNA) conduct airstrikes on Fajr
(Misrata) position at airport. 2 injured.
Ghat. 10.01 Fajr (Misrata) seize airport from local militia. 1
killed 3 injured.
Al-Watiyah. 10.01 Fajr (Zawiya) militia attack Karama (Zintani)
positions. 2 killed 5 injured.

Confidential not to be disseminated externally without permission of Hermes Associates

News Summary
SECURITY NEWS
Libyan jets bomb Greek oil tanker, killing two
crewmen- Malta Today
A Libyan jets from forces loyal to the internationally
recognised government has bombed a Greek-operated
oil tanker anchored off the coast, killing two crewmen
amid an escalation of conflict between factions vying to
rule the country.
Military officials said the vessel had acted suspiciously
after a warning not to enter port and said it was
suspected of transporting Libyan fighters to Derna, the
eastern port city where the ship was at anchor when it
was hit on Sunday.
A military spokesman, Colonel Ahmed Mesmari, said
the tanker had been targeted because it had failed to
submit to an inspection before entering the port. Full
Article
Italy Would Consider UN Peacekeeping Libya Role,
Renzi Says- Bloomberg

Derna radicals seek Daesh help- Magharebia

An extremist militia in Derna sent a distress call to the
Islamic State (ISIS) after Libyan troops tightened the
noose and other local Islamists tried to oust them.
The group was already in the crosshairs of Libyan troops
and Operation Dignity. Last month, clashes erupted
with Ansar al-Sharia's allies, the Derna Revolutionary
Shura Council, which refuses to swear allegiance to Abu
Bakr al-Baghdadi's self-proclaimed caliphate in Iraq and
Syria. Full Article
Foreign fighters among jihadist ranks, Libya saysMagharebia
Local Libyan TV stations recently aired pictures and
videos of Islamic State (ISIS) fighters arrested or killed in
battles with the Libyan army in Benghazi.
The terrorists are reportedly from Syria, Algeria, Tunisia
and Egypt.

Prime Minister Matteo Renzi said Italy must consider

Libya a priority and his country would be ready to take
part in United Nations-sponsored peacekeeping there.

An Algerian ISIS fighter called Abu Younis Djilali

Mansour was killed last month in the al-Hawari area of
Benghazi, authorities said. His death was reported by
Libya Herald December 15th. Full Article

Renzi is pushing for the success of UN-hosted talks

among Libyas political parties next week in Geneva, he
said in an interview on La7 television late yesterday.

Warning of jihadist threat, Libya PM pleads for helpYahoo/ AFP

If theres no success, Italy is ready to play a leading

role, above all a diplomatic role, and then, always under
the aegis of the UN, one of peacekeeping inside Libya,
Renzi said. Libya cant be left in the condition it is
now. Full Article

Al-Baida (Libya) (AFP) - The head of Libya's recognised

government has pleaded for more help from the
international community, warning that the country
could become a dangerous haven for jihadists on
Europe's doorstep.

Libya appeals for weapons- Magharebia

The Libyan government on Monday (January 5th)
appealed for weapons to combat the militias that have
overrun parts of the country, AFP reported.

In an interview with AFP ahead of hoped-for peace talks

in Geneva this week, Prime Minister Abdullah al-Thani
said his government especially needed the lifting of an
arms embargo to combat militias defying its authority.
Full Article

Speaking at an emergency meeting of the Arab League

in Cairo, the Libyan representative to the body asked
the "international community to assume its legal and
moral responsibilities and to arm, without further delay,
the Libyan army". Full Article

Confidential not to be disseminated externally without permission of Hermes Associates

BUSINESS NEWS
Libyan Deputy PM: We are in control of 80 percent of
the countrys oil- Asharq Al-Awsat

Libya cut off from world by air as last foreign airline

suspends flights- The Telegraph

Cairo, Asharq Al-AwsatAs Libyas two rival

governments gear up for another round of
reconciliation talks in Geneva this week under the
auspices of the UN, the countrys Tobruk-based
government is continuing its attempts to impose its
authority over the strife-torn North African state and
build new relationships with its neighbors, particularly
Egypt.

The last foreign airline operating in Libya has suspended

all flights to and from the country, cutting the North
African nation off from the world by air as it slides
further into chaos.
Turkish Airlines said on Tuesday that it had suspended
flights to Misrata, its only remaining destination in
Libya, after it had earlier pulled its flights to the capital,
Tripoli, as well as Benghazi and the inland desert city of
Sebha.

Asharq Al-Awsat spoke to Libyas deputy prime

minister, Abdul Salam Al-Badri, during a visit to Cairo
"We have suspended our Misrata flights until further
about his governments attempts to strengthen links
notice, due to operational issues," a company
with its neighbor, its rivalry with its opponents in Tripoli spokesman said. Full Article
(who he claimed were receiving support from abroad),
his governments relationship with the Libyan National
Army led by Gen. Khalifa Haftar, the extent of its control
over Libyas vast oil reserves, and whether the new
government is willing to cooperate with former
members of Gaddafis government. Full Article

HUMANITARIAN NEWS

In War-Torn Libya, Its Life on the Edge- Foreign Policy

Promoting Women's Rights and Political Inclusion in

Arab States- All Africa/ IWPR

tely Libya has been making headlines for all the wrong
reasons. Civil war continues to rage. In the East, the
army of the internationally recognized parliament in
Tobruk continues its war on terrorist groups such as the
Islamic State and Ansar al-Islam. In the West, the forces
of the Tobruk government have allied with the powerful
town of Zintan against militias loyal to the former
General National Congress (GNC) and the city of
Misrata.

Female leaders from seven countries given skills to

conceptualise and plan work on political participation
and rights.
IWPR has joined forces with Hivos, Oxfam Novib and
Price Waterhouse Coopers to partner with 20
organisations that promote women's rights and political
participation.
Women on the Frontline is an innovative programme
funded by the Netherlands government to strengthen
women's institutions in the Middle East and North
Africa. Full Article

As one might expect, the war is taking a heavy toll on

basic services and vital infrastructure. For the last few
weeks Libyans have suffered power blackouts and
shortages of gasoline and propane. The lack of gas for
cooking, in particular, has forced many people to
prepare meals over wood fires, making life miserable
for many... Full Article

Confidential not to be disseminated externally without permission of Hermes Associates

POLITICAL NEWS
Libyas factions agree to new talks at U.N.- Al Arabiya/
Reuters
Libya's factions have agreed to a new round of
negotiations to attempt to end the North African
country's crisis, the United Nations said on Saturday.
The meeting will take place next week at the United
Nations office at Geneva, the U.N. mission for Libya said
in a statement.
Libya, which is a major oil producer, has slipped deeper
into division since the overthrow of Gaddafi, with two
rival governments and two parliaments, each backed by
competing groups of heavily armed former rebel
fighters. Full Article
Libya peace talks bound to fail- Daily News Egypt
The UN-led dialogue between the two rival Libyan
governments is set to fail, said Kamal Abduallah, a Libya
specialist at the Al-Ahram Center for Strategic Studies.
Libya currently has two governments. The
internationally recognised government is currently
based in the eastern city of Tobruk and consists of the
democratically elected House of Representatives and
the cabinet of Prime Minister Abdulla Al-Thinni, backed
by what is left of the Libyan army and forces loyal to
former general Khalifa Haftar. Full Article

Tragedy of two Libyas

At a time when tensions have rapidly escalated
between Malta and the two Libyas, it is necessary to
reflect on the facts.
The news media often incorrectly report there are two
governments in Libya: one in Tripoli and one in Tobruk.
Last week, this split was reflected in Malta when the
two sides announced their own locations for their
respective embassies, each accusing the other of being
an illegal government. Full Article
That it should come to this- The Economist
IN MARCH 2011, spurred by Colonel Muammar
Qaddafis threat that his forces would storm the city of
Benghazi inch by inch, house by house, home by home,
alley by alley, reluctant Western nations intervened in
the revolution in Libya. It proved decisive. By the end of
the year Qaddafi was dead, and the national tricolour
which had replaced the plain green flag of the colonels
regime over the rooftops of Benghazi was flying all
across the country.
Today Libya is at war with itself again. It is split between
a government in Beida, in the east of the country, which
is aligned with the military; and another in Tripoli, in the
west, which is dominated by Islamists and militias from
western coastal cities. Benghazi is again a battlefield.
Full Article

As Libya Spirals Toward Chaos, The West Has Financial

Levers To Stop The Fighting- Forbes

Opinion: Another Arab country is slipping into chaosAsharq Al-Awsat

Just as oil and gas wealth were the pillars of Col.

Muammar Gaddafis brutal rentier state, they are at the
heart of the civil conflict raging in Libya demonstrated
recently by an escalating battle over storage depots and
lifting ports in the countrys oil-rich East, and rumors of
an imminent siege of Libyas former capital city of
Tripoli, which threatens full-blown civil war. Libyas oil
production, which was up to 800,000 bpd in October,
has fallen in the last few days to (optimistically) 350,000
bpd, and will likely go much lower. Full Article

On September 25, 2014 Asharq Al-Awsat published my

article, The Costly Neglect of Libya, which dealt with
the deteriorating situation in that country and the
absence of coordinated and effective steps on the part
of the Arab world and the international community to
stop the fighting and help it recover from its ordeal.
Today, more than three months later, nothing seems to
have changed, apart from things going from bad to
worse. Full Article

Libya Bars Entry of Sudanese Nationals Into the

Country Over Terror Concerns- All Africa/ Sudan
Tribune

Libyas Tobruk government stops visas to Maltese

nationals- Malta Today

Khartoum The internationally-recognized Libyan

government announced on Monday a ban on the entry
of citizens from Sudan, Syria and Palestine. Full Article

The Libyan parliament based in Tobruk and supporting

Prime Minister Abdullah al Thinni has announced it will
not issue any visas to Maltese citizens, unless they are
security-cleared. Full Article

Confidential not to be disseminated externally without permission of Hermes Associates

Commentary
Welcome Back
This is the 1st report Hermes Associates have issued on Libya since mid-2014. The temporary hiatus was due to the
temporary relocation of our Libya operation due to the increase of violence. However, we are now in a position to
restore reporting and aim to add the Libya Weekly Report to our continuing product line.

Libya: A Failed State?

The last week has seen several notable articles published detailing the current state of Libya, as well as efforts by
the international community to try and rectify the situation. The truth is there is no easy solution to the Libya crisis
and little chance that a peaceful resolution is going to be reached. While were not going to write a long summary
of the post-2011 civil war period and Libyas descent into the anarchic state it is now in, it is worth reviewing the
period as it has led to state Libya is now in.
The defeat of the Gaddafi regime in 2011 and the subsequent power vacuum was filled by militias that had little in
common except that they had fought and defeated Gaddafi. There was no homogenous rebel force, although
there were loose alliances of rebel groups, such as the National Forces Alliance therefore there was no overriding
control of the militias. Once the Gaddafi regime fell these militias took power less by force than by there being no
alternative. While political groups attempted to rein in the militias, ultimately power resided with the militias and
the politicians were merely the public face. In the immediate aftermath of the civil war militias sought to legitimise
their continued existence by gaining authority and official designations as elements of the state security forces and
by taking control of key infrastructure to ensure funding- as well as control. Examples such as the Libyan Shield
militia coalition made up of Misratan militias and being assigned to protect critical infrastructure or the Zintani
Qaaqaa brigade which controlled Tripoli airport until mid-2014. While militias secured the nation political
governance was nothing more than polish, while there was attempts at setting up democracy and even developing
a governmental system, in reality governance was at the sufferance of militias.
If we fast forward to now we see the result of the governmental system being based on militia power. Militias
have basically aligned into 2 sides and support 2 governments. The legitimate government recognised by the
International Community is the Tobruk based House of Representatives, except as we have asked all along is this
government really representative? The House of Representatives was elected with less than 20% of eligible voters
actually voting, while it was a democratic election, the very low voter turnout has always cast a shadow over its
legitimacy and support.
However flawed the selection of the House of Representatives is, the other group claiming to be the legitimate
government- the former General National Congress in Tripoli- is also flawed. The Tripoli Government is made up of
members of the former GNC that was replaced by the House of Representatives in the June election. While the
International Community does not recognise them as legitimate, it should be remembered that the GNC only
stepped down following the threats of a Zintani militia in May, although the GNC had stayed beyond its agreed
mandate at the time.
The post-election violence made it impossible for the House of Representatives to remain in Tripoli, but by
relocating to the East of Libya it made it possible for militias linked to the former GNC to take the lead and
dominate the capital and more importantly the agenda for the development of Libya. The current situation in
Libya of rival power blocs in the East and West clashing was in many ways inevitable govern that there was no
single power bloc in control of Libya after the civil war. In many ways the current conflict between the Tripoli and
Tobruk administrations is but a natural adjustment of an unnatural situation, the sharing of power between vastly
different groups with different agendas. But with both sides focused on their own power and survival and not on
securing Libya, it has allowed a vacuum of governance, with tribes and cities forced to secure their own area.
The question has been posed repeatedly over the last few months is Libya going to be the next Syria? There is no
precise answer to that question, however we conjecture that Libya is actually going to develop to be more similar
to Somalia- albeit with certain factors similar to the Syrian conflict. Indeed there are already similarities with
Somalia in the initial decade of their civil war, no clear government and warring factions divided by regional
interests.

Confidential not to be disseminated externally without permission of Hermes Associates

The next question often posed is, is Libya a failed state? Well things are a bit more complicated, because
depending on perspective the answer is yes and no. Yes insofar as there is little to no central direction and Libya is
more of a collection of city states in loose alliances than a single nation. Assessed against the widely accepted
Fund for Peace definition Libya is a failed state. However, it is also worth remembering that within the rival city
states there remains a degree of trade- including international trade- and some public services are still provided.
Can Libya being a failed state affect the wider world? Unfortunately the lack of effective central government that
is epitomised by the Failed State moniker has been proven by several influential think tanks to encourage
extremist and criminal groups to use those territories as a base.
The last question which is where much of the recent debate comes in is can and will Libya affect the wider world
and especially Europe? Here there is no definite answer as at the moment all sides in Libya are too busy trying to
gain the upper hand. However, there are a number of factors we think suggest that the conflict in Libya has the
potential to affect the wider international community.
Criminality- the most emotive issue based on the last year is the growth of criminality in Libya, smugglers and
illegal migrants have flocked to Libya drawn by its close proximity to Europe and a vacuum of state control. While
it is the most obvious issue and threatens the cultural and economic stability of neighbouring nations, it is perhaps
not the biggest threat.
Terrorism- the power vacuum caused by the lack of central government has allowed the growth of extremists in
Libya. It is notable that Derna has sworn allegiance to the Islamic State and that IS flags are routinely displayed
throughout the city, there is also evidence that Islamic State- aka ISIS- members openly operate in Tripoli. While
the Tripoli regime and its supporters- the militias of the Fajr alliance- are not necessarily jihadist, that they tolerate
Islamic State forces in Tripoli is a concern. It is also notable that a number of Libyan militias affiliated with the
Tripoli regime have fought in Syria alongside ISIS and Jabhat An-Nusra- an affiliate of Al Qaeda.
This is not to say that all those associated with the Tripoli regime are potential jihadists, indeed most of the
supporters are most definitely not jihadists or potential jihadists. But the growing presence of jihadists in Libya is a
concern. It is not impossible that the Tripoli regime may further empower the Islamic State elements by calling on
their assistance as the conflict with the Tobruk Government continues without resolution.
Indeed the recent calls by some world leaders for intervention in Libya could lead to a situation where the
supporters of the Tripoli regime seek to strike at the nations that strike at it. It is infinitely possible that if the
Tripoli regime were to be driven from the capital that it could evolve into something more radical and dangerous.
There are parallels, consider Al-Shabaab in Somalia that evolved following the defeat of the Islamic Courts Union
by the international community. Given the recent jihadist attacks in Paris, it is highly likely that followers of jihadist
groups such as the Islamic State could seek to attack targets within nations that intervene in Libya.
Now that is not so say that foreign intervention should be ruled out, there is in reality no credible alternative. At
time of writing the UN sponsored talks in Geneva will achieve nothing. Both the Tobruk government and the
Tripoli regime have distanced themselves from the negotiations and in reality as explained above the militias
control the politicians, not the other way round, so the lack of the leaders of the Fajr alliance or the Karama/
National Army alliance mean the talks are destined to fail.
Therefore the international community is left with only the choice to intervene or not. The concern of course is
that failing to intervene is going to allow the current conflict to continue and allow the Tripoli regime and its
jihadist allies to expand their powerbase and potentially destabilise the region. However, if the international
community does act to support the Tobruk regime, as several European leaders are suggesting, we would be
concerned that the intervention may not prove effective. It should be remembered that poorly thought out
international intervention in Libya is what led us to this situation in the 1st place and international intervention in
similar failed states has not proven to be that successful.

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Confidential not to be disseminated externally without permission of Hermes Associates