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Spring 2014
Morning and afternoon exam booklets will include a formula package identical to the one attached to this
study note. The exam committee believe that by providing many key formulas, candidates will be able to
focus more of their exam preparation time on the application of the formulas and concepts to demonstrate
their understanding of the syllabus material and less time on the memorization of the formulas.
The formula sheet was developed sequentially by reviewing the syllabus material for each major syllabus
topic. Candidates should be able to follow the flow of the formula package easily. We recommend that
candidates use the formula package concurrently with the syllabus material. Not every formula in the
syllabus is in the formula package. Candidates are responsible for all formulas on the syllabus,
including those not on the formula sheet.
Candidates should carefully observe the sometimes subtle dierences in formulas and their application to
slightly dierent situations. For example, there are several versions of the Black-Scholes-Merton option
pricing formula to dierentiate between instruments paying dividends, tied to an index, etc. Candidates will
be expected to recognize the correct formula to apply in a specific situation of an exam question.
Candidates will note that the formula package does not generally provide names or definitions of the formula
or symbols used in the formula. With the wide variety of references and authors of the syllabus, candidates
should recognize that the letter conventions and use of symbols may vary from one part of the syllabus to
another and thus from one formula to another.
We trust that you will find the inclusion of the formula package to be a valuable study aide that will allow
for more of your preparation time to be spent on mastering the learning objectives and learning outcomes.
In sources where some equations are numbered and others are not (nn) denotes that there is no number
assigned to that particular equation.
Chapter 2
(10)
(66)
(67)
(70)
(71)
(nn)
1
(1 + r)
(1 + r)
S(t) = S1 (t + 1) S2 (t + 1) 1
2
C(t)
C1 (t + 1) C2 (t + 1)
i
1 h
St =
Pup (St + ) + Pdown (St )
1+r
i
h
1
up
down
+ Pdown Ct+
Ct =
Pup Ct+
(1 + r)
i
(1 + d) h u u
S=
S P + S d P d
(1 + r)
i
h
1
C=
C u P u + C d P d
(1 + r)
Ct+
EP
= 1 + r
Ct
Chapter 3
(37)
(49)
Z T
n
X
ti + ti1
f
f (s)ds
(ti ti1 )
2
0
i=1
Z T
n
X
ti + ti1
g(s)df (s) =
g
(f (ti ) f (ti1 ))
2
0
i=1
Chapter 4
(24)
1
1
dF (t) = Fs dSt + Fr drt + Ft dt + Fss dSt2 + Frr drt2 + Fsr dSt drt
2
2
Chapter 5
(11)
(18)
(19)
(40)
(41)
(44)
(45)
E[St |Iu ] =
u<t
P (F (t) = +a ) = p
P (F (t) = a ) = (1 p)
1
rt+
1 rt + 1 Rt
1 Wt+
=
+
2
Rt+
2 rt + 2 Rt
2 Wt+
Chapter 6
(3)
(4)
(5)
t<T
E |St | <
(10)
(11)
NtG
0<u
NtB
(22)
Mt =
(27)
P (NtG = 1)
= G > P (NtB = 1)
= B
(28)
Et [Mt ]
= G B > 0
(41)
(44)
0<u<T t
Xt N (, 2 )
Z t+T
dXu
Xt+T = X0 +
0
(48)
(52)
Zt = Xt t
Et [Zt+T ] = Xt t
(53)
Et [Zt+T ] = Zt
(54)
St N (0, 2 )
(55)
S0 = 0
(56)
Zt = St2
(58)
Et [Zt+T 2 (T + t)] = Zt 2 t
(62)
(63)
(64)
It It+1 . . . IT 1 IT
Mt = E P [YT |It ]
E P [Mt+s |It ] = Mt
(69)
GT = f (ST )
(70)
BT = e
(71)
(105)
Mt = E
T
t
rs ds
GT
|It
BT
Mtk = Mt0 +
k
X
i=1
(107)
(111)
g(Cs )dMs
t
Chapter 7
(24)
(27)
Wk =
k
X
Wi
i=1
(29)
Ek1 Wk = Wk1
(30)
Vk = E0 [Wk2 ]
" n
#2
n
X
X
V = E0
Wk =
Vk
(31)
k=1
k=1
(32)
V > A1 > 0
(34)
V < A2 <
(35)
Vmax = max[Vk , k = 1, . . . , n]
k
(36)
Vk
> A3 , 0 < A3 < 1
Vmax
(37)
E[Wk ]2 = k2 h
(52)
Chapter 8
1 with probability dt
0 with probability 1 dt
(7)
dNt =
(8)
Mt = Nt t
(9)
(14)
(15)
(17)
E[Mt ] = 0
w1
w2
k Wk =
..
wm
2
E[k Wk ] =
m
X
with probability p1
with probability p2
..
.
with probability pm
k2 h
pi wi2 = k2 h
i=1
(22)
wi (h) = w
i hri
(23)
pi (h) = pi hqi
(27)
qi + 2ri = 1
(28)
ci = w
i2 pi
(53)
Jt = (Nt t)
(55)
(70)
(71)
n = T
(72)
(73)
Si = Sti , i = 0, 1, . . . , n
ui Si with probability pi
Si+1 =
di Si with probability 1 pi
(74)
ui = e
(75)
(76)
(85)
, for all i
di = e
, for all i
i
pi =
, for all i
1+
2
Si+n
Si
1h
(86)
(87)
Si+n
= Z log u + (n Z) log d
Si
u
Si+n
= Z log + n log d
log
Si
d
log
Chapter 9
(37)
(38)
(39)
lim E
" n
X
k=1
(Su , u)dWu
0
#2
=0
(41)
n
X
k=1
(73)
(74)
(76)
(77)
(78)
(79)
(85)
xt dxt =
If
(St , t)dWt
1 2
xT T
2
0
"n1
#2
X
2
lim E
xti+1 T = 0
i=0
T
2
"n1
X
x2ti+1
i=0
(dxt )
dt = T
0
T
2
(dxt ) =
0
dt
(dWt )2 = dt
Z t
Z
Es
u dWu =
0
Chapter 10
(nn)
dSt = at dt + t dWt ,
(36)
dFt =
(37)
(64)
t0
F
F
1 2F 2
dSt +
dt
dt +
St
t
2 St2 t
F
F
F
1 2F 2
dFt =
at +
t dWt
+
t dt +
2
St
t
2 St
St
Z t
Z t
1
2
Fs dSu = [F (St , t) F (S0 , 0)]
Fu + Fss u du
2
0
0
#2
=0
(69)
(79)
Y (t) =
(80)
n
X
Ni (t)Pi (t)
i=1
n
X
dY (t) =
Ni (t)dPi (t) +
i=1
(81)
(82)
(83)
(84)
(85)
(86)
n
X
1
Fs1 s1 dS12 + Fs2 s2 dS22 + 2Fs1 s2 dS1 dS2
2
i=1
"
Jt = Nt t h
at = t + t
k
X
"
k
X
ai pi
i=1
ai pi
i=1
!#
#
k
X
1
2
dF (St , t) = Ft + t
(F (St + ai , t) F (St , t))pi + Fss dt + Fs dSt + dJF
2
i=1
" k
#
X
(87)
St
= lim Ss , s < t
st
Chapter 11
(24)
(30)
St = S0 e{(a 2
(34)
1 2
ST = S0 e(r 2 )T eWT
(38)
)t+Wt }
(42)
Zt = eWt
(50)
xt = E[Zt ] = e 2
(56)
St = er(T t) Et [ST ]
p
dSt = St dt + St dWt , t [0, )
(72)
(74)
(78)
(79)
(80)
i=1
n
X
dt = (0 t )dt + t dW2t
Chapter 12
Note - Formulas (24), (26), and (28) are incorrect in the text. The correct versions are given here.
(3)
Pt = 1 F (St , t) + 2 St
(4)
(5)
(6)
(7)
1
dFt = Ft dt + Fss t2 dt + Fs dSt
2
1
2
dFt = Fs at + Fss t + Ft dt + Fs t dWt
2
(10)
1 = 1
(11)
2 = Fs
(12)
(16)
(17)
(23)
(24)
(26)
(28)
(nn)
(29)
1
dPt = Ft dt + Fss t2 dt
2
1
r(F (St , t) Fs St ) = Ft + Fss t2
2
1
rF + rFs St + Ft + Fss t2 = 0, 0 St , 0 t T
2
Pt = F (St , t) Fs (St , t)St
1
2 2
dPt = dF (St , t) Fs dSt St Fst + Fss St + Fsss t St dt + Fss St dWt Fss t2 St2 dt
2
a0 F + a1 Fs St + a2 Ft + a3 Fss = 0, 0 St , 0 t T
(30)
F (ST , T ) = G(ST , T )
(32)
Ft + Fs = 0, 0 St , 0 t T
(33)
F (St , t) = St t +
(44)
F (St , t) = eSt t
(46)
.3Fss + Ftt = 0
(47)
F (St , t) =
(53)
1
.3
(St S0 )2 + (t t0 )2 + (St S0 )(t t0 )
2
2
F (St , t) = 10(St 4)2 3(t 2)2 , 10 t 10, 10 St 10
Chapter 13
(1)
a(St , t) = St
(2)
(St , t) = St ,
(3)
(4)
(6)
t [0, )
1
rF + rFs St + Ft + Fss 2 St2 = 0, 0 St , 0 t T
2
F (T ) = max[ST K, 0]
(7)
(8)
(9)
(17)
(18)
(19)
(20)
(21)
(30)
(31)
(32)
(33)
(34)
T t
d2 = d1 T t
Z d1
1
1 2
e 2 x dx
N (d1 ) =
2
1
rF rFs St + Fs St Ft Fss t2 = 0
2
F (S1T , S2T , T ) = max[0, max(S1T , S2T ) K] (multi-asset option)
d1 =
F
F
1
2 F
+ rS
+ 2 S 2
= rF
t
S
2
S 2
F Fij Fi,j1
=
t
t
F
Fij Fi1,j
rS
= rSj
S
S
Fi+1,j Fij
F
rS
= rSj
S
S
2
F Fi+1,j Fij
Fij Fi1,j
1
=
S 2
S
S
S
Chapter 14
(6)
(7)
1
1
dP (
z ) = P z dzt < zt < z + dzt
2
2
Z
dP (zt ) = 1
(8)
E[zt ] =
zt dP (zt )
(9)
(29)
(31)
(41)
E [zt E[zt ]] =
1
Et
St+1 = St
(1 + Rt )
EtP
St+1 = St
(1 + rt )
zt N (0, 1)
(42)
2
1
1
dP (zt ) = e 2 (zt ) dzt
2
(43)
(zt ) = ezt 2
(44)
(45)
2
1
1 2
1
[dP (zt )][(zt )] = e 2 (zt )+zt 2 dzt
2
2
1
1
dP (zt ) = e 2 [zt ] dzt
2
(46)
(48)
(53)
f (z1t , z2t ) =
12
1
p
12
22
(54)
(55)
2
|| = 12 22 12
(56)
(57)
(58)
(59)
(60)
12
||
12
12
(z1t , z2t ) = exp z1t z2t
12
12 z1t z2t
1
p
dP (z1t , z2t ) =
e
2 ||
0
(zt ) = ezt
(74)
(75)
(76)
(77)
(83)
t = Wt
W
Xu du, t [0, T ]
(86)
t = dWt Xt dt
dW
dPT = T dP
A1 + A2 + + An =
(123)
(127)
(138)
(nn)
(nn)
g(Xt ) = Zt h(Xt )
Z
E P [g(Xt )] =
h(x)f(x)dx = E P [h(x)]
12
12
PT (A) = E P [1A T ]
(122)
(85)
(93)
t
t
2
1
t = e( 0 Xu dWu 2 0 Xu du) , t [0, T ]
h t 2 i
E e 0 Xu du < , t [0, T ]
Z u
Z t
s Xs dWs |Iu =
s Xs dWs
E
(84)
12
22
+ 12 0 1
dP (zt )
= (zt )
dP (zt )
dP (zt ) = (zt )dP (zt )
(69)
(z1t 1 ) (z2t 2 )
12
22
12
12
1
2
12
22
1
1
+
2
z1t
z2t
(z1t 1 )
(z2t 2 )
dz1t dz2t
12
12
12
22
1
2
Chapter 15
(2)
(4)
Yt N (t, 2 t)
M () = E[eYt ]
1
t2
(10)
M () = et+ 2
(15)
St = S0 eYt , t [0, )
(25)
(30)
(31)
(32)
(38)
(42)
(51)
(58)
(ts)
Zt = ert St
(88)
dSt = t dt + t dWt
(90)
(92)
(97)
(98)
(111)
t = dXt + dWt
dW
t rSt
dXt =
dt
t
t
d[ert St ] = ert t dW
rt
t
d e F (St , t) = ert t Fs dW
Chapter 17
(6)
(13)
1
0
Bts1
Bt1
Ct1
Rt1 Rtu2
(Ft1 Lut2 )
1
Btuu
3
Ctuu
3
Rt1 Rtu2
(Ft1 Lut2 )
1
Btud
3
Ctud
3
Rt1 Rtd2
(Ft1 Ldt2 )
1
Btdd
3
Ctdd
3
(14)
(15)
1 = P uu + P ud + P du + P dd
(16)
P ij > 0
(18)
Bts1 = E P
(21)
Bt1 = E P
(22)
Rt1 Rtd2
(Ft1 Ldt2 )
1
Btdu
3
Ctdu
3
0=E
1
(1 + rt1 )(1 + rt2 )
Bt3
(1 + rt1 )(1 + rt2 )
1
[Ft Lt2 ]
(1 + rt1 )(1 + rt2 ) 1
10
uu
ud
du
dd
(23)
(31)
1
Ct1 = E
Ct
(1 + rt1 )(1 + rt2 ) 3
1
1
h
i EP
Lt2
Ft1 =
1
(1 + rt1 )(1 + rt2 )
E P
P
(1+rt1 )(1+rt2 )
(36)
Bts1
(38)
ij =
(39)
1 = uu + ud + du + dd
(46)
Ft1 = E [Lt2 ]
(52)
Ct3 = N max[Lt2 K, 0]
1
P
Ct1 = E
max[Lt2 K, 0]
(1 + rt1 )(1 + rt2 )
(53)
(55)
(56)
(61)
(62)
(63)
uu
+ ud + du + dd
1 ij
Bts1
Vt = EtP e t ru du (Ft LT )N
Vt = Et [B(t, T + )(Ft LT )N ]
Vt = B(t, T + )Et [(Ft LT )N ]
Ft = Et [LT ]
Chapter 18
(3)
(12)
(20)
(33)
(39)
(40)
B(t, T ) = EtP e t rs ds
h
i
T
log EtP e t rs ds
R(t, T ) =
T t
B(t, T ) = e
T
t
F (t,s)ds
F (t, T ) = lim
Chapter 19
(14)
(15)
(t, T, B(t, T ))
(t, T, B(t, T ))
dF (t, T ) = (t, T, B(t, T ))
dt +
dWt
T
T
(21)
(22)
(25)
rt = F (t, t)
11
(nn)
F (t, T ) = F (0, T ) +
b(s, T )
(26)
rt = F (0, t) +
b(s, t)
(33)
"Z
b(s, u)du ds +
b(s, T )dWs
0
Z t
b(s, u)du ds +
b(s, t)dWs
0
(34)
(36)
1
rt = F (0, t) + b2 t2 + bWt
2
drt = (Ft (0, t) + b2 t)dt + bdWt
(37)
Ft (0, t) =
(35)
F (0, t)
t
Chapter 6
(6.6)
(6.7)
(6.8)
(6.9)
(6.10)
2V
V
V
1
+ 2 S 2 2 + rS
rV = 0
t
2
S
S
V
V
1
2V
+ 2 S 2 2 + (r D)S
rV = 0
t
2
S
S
V
V
1
2V
+ 2 S 2 2 + (r rf )S
rV = 0
t
2
S
S
V
V
1
2V
+ 2 S 2 2 + (r + q)S
rV = 0
t
2
S
S
2V
V
1
+ rV = 0
+ 2 F 2
t
2
F 2
Chapter 8
er(T t)
V (S, t) = p
2(T t)
(8.7)
d1
d2
=
=
e(log(S/S
T t
log(S/E)+(rD 12 2 )(T t)
T t
d1 T t
12
Payo(S 0 )
dS 0
S0
Binary put
er(T t) N 0 (d2 )
S T t
r(T t) 0
e S TNt(d2 )
1 2
N 0 (x) = 12 e 2 x
eD(T t) N 0 (d1 )
S T t
D(T t) 0
e
N (d1 )
S T t
r(T t)
d1 N 0 (d2 )
e 2 S2 (T
t)
er(T t) d1 N 0 (d2 )
2 S 2 (T t)
D(T t) 0
Se 2T tN (d1 ) + DSN (d1 )eD(T t) rEer(T t) N (d2 )
D(T t) 0
N (d1 )
Se 2T t
DSN (d1 )eD(T t) + rEer(T t) N (d2 )
d1
2(T t)
rD
T t
D(T t) 0
Call
e 2 S 2 (TNt)(d1 ) d1 + T t
D(T t) 0
Put
e 2 S 2 (TNt)(d1 ) d1 + T t
r(T t) 0
(d2 )
1 d2
Binary call
e 2 S 3 (TNt)
2d1 + 1d
T t
er(T t) N 0 (d2 )
1d
1 d2
Binary put
+
2d
2
3
1
S (T t)
T t
Vegas of common
contracts
Call
S T teD(T t) N 0 (d1 )
Put
S T teD(T t) N 0 (d1 )
Binary call
er(T t) N 0 (d2 ) d1
Binary put
er(T t) N 0 (d2 ) d1
Call
Put
Binary call
Binary put
e
N (d2 )
T t r(T t) 0
Binary put
N (d2 )
e
13
Chapter 9
All formulas are in Section 9.3
2 =
Ri =
N
1 X 2
R
N i=1 i
Si Si1
Si1
n
n2 =
2 + (1 )
1X 2
R
n i=1 i
2
n2 = n1
+ (1 )Rn2
2
n2 =
2 + (1 )(n1
+ (1 )Rn2 )
2
2
E[n+k
] = E[n+k1
]
2
E[n+k
]=
2 + E[n2 ]
2 (1 )k
=
1 (1 )(1 )
2
n
1X
Ci
2
log
CC =
n i=1
Ci1
2
n
X
Hi
1
Parkinson: p2 =
log
4n log(2) i=1
Li
!
n
1X
Ci
Hi
Hi Li
Hi
Li
2
Garman & Klass: gk =
0.019 log
0.511 log
log
2 log
log
2
n i=1
Li
Oi
Oi
Oi
Oi
n
1X
Hi
Hi
Li
Li
2
Rogers & Satchell: rs
=
log
log
+ log
log
n i=1
Ci
Oi
Ci
Oi
Chapter 10
Section 10.4, one time step mark-to-market profit (using Black-Scholes with =
)
1 2
2 )S 2 i dt + (i a )(( r + D)Sdt + SdX)
(
2
1 2
2 S 2 i dt
2
Chapter 14
(14.1)
V = P ey(T t) +
N
X
Ci ey(ti t)
i=1
Chapter 16
(16.4)
(16.5)
V
V
1 2V
+ w2 2 + (u w)
rV = 0
t
2
r
r
V
dV rV dt = w
(dX + dt)
r
14
1
(1 e(T t) )
A=
1
1
B(t; T )2
(B(t;
T
)
T
+
t)(
2
2
4
dr = ( r)dt + rdX
The value of a zero coupon bond is given by eA(t;T )rB(t;T )
1 = 2 + 2 and 2 =
a+b
p
+ 2 + 2
b, a =
2
log ZM (t ; t) + (t t )
t2
Section 16.7
Forward price =
S
Z
Z
Z
1 2Z
+ w2 2 + (u w)
rZ = 0
t
2
r
r
with Z(r, T ) = 1
Section 16.8
Futures price F (S, r, t) =
S
p(r, t)
p
p 1 2 2 p
+ ( w)
+ w
rp w2
2
t
2 r
r
p
r
+ p
with p(r, T ) = 1
15
p
=0
r
Chapter 17
Section 17.2 Ho & Lee
dr = (t)dt + cdX
Z(r, t : T ) = eA(t;T )r(T t)
ZM (t ; T )
1
A(t; T ) = log
(T t) log(ZM (t ; t)) c2 (t t )(T t)2
ZM (t ; t)
t
2
Section 17.3 The Extended Vasicek Model of Hull & White
dr = ( r)dt + cdX
1
B(t; T ) =
1 e(T t)
2
ZM (t ; T )
c2 (T t )
(tt )
2(tt )
A(t; T ) = log
(t
;
t))
1
e
e
B(t;
T
)
log(Z
M
ZM (t ; t)
t
4 3
Chapter 18
Section 18.3.1 Bond Options - Market Practice
Call option price: er(T t) (F N (d01 ) EN (d02 ))
log(F/E) + 12 2 (T t)
T t
d02 = d01 T t
d01 =
(ti t)
Floorlet price: er
(ti t)
log(F/rc ) + 12 2 ti1
ti1
p
d02 = d01 ti1
d01 =
2(Ts T ) !
1 r(T t)
1
Price of a payer swaption: e
1 1+ F
(F N (d01 ) EN (d02 ))
F
2
2(Ts T ) !
1
1 r(T t)
1 1+ F
(EN (d02 ) F N (d01 ))
Price of a receiver swaption: e
F
2
log(F/E) + 12 2 (T t)
T t
d02 = d01 T t
d01 =
16
Chapter 19
T
t
(19.1)
Z(t; T ) = e
(19.2)
(nn)
F (t; T ) =
F (t;s)ds
log Z(t; T )
T
1 2
(t, T ) (t, T ) dt
(t, T )dX
2
T
!
Z
T
(t, s)ds dt + (t, T )dX
dF (t; T ) = (t, T )
dF (t; T ) =
T
(19.3)
(19.5)
(19.6)
dF (t; T ) =
N
X
i (t, T )
i=1
(19.7)
dZi = rZi dt + Zi
i1
X
i (t, s)ds dt +
t
N
X
i (t, T )dXi
i=1
aij dXj
j=1
i
X
dZi = (1 + Fi )dZi+1 + Zi+1 dFi + i Fi Zi+1
ai+1,j ij dt
(19.8)
j=1
i
X
j j
ij
i Fi dt + i Fi dXi
dFi =
1
+
F
j
j=1
(19.9)
(38)
(39)
NT = f 0 (ST )
(40)
+ ST f (ST ) f (ST ) +
rT
er(T t) (t2 h2 )
T
0
er(T t) (h2 t2 )
Yd =
(F P ) 360
F
t
2
Um = E(Rm ) 0.005RA m
(5-2)
SFRatio =
(5-3)
(5-4)
E(RP ) RL
P
E(Rnew ) RF
E(Rp ) RF
>
Corr(Rnew , Rp )
new
p
ALM
Um
= E(SRm ) 0.005RA 2 (SRm )
17
St2 2
V (St , t; h )dt
2 S 2
St2 2
V (St , t; h )dt
2 S 2
P = SP or p = s + p
(2)
p = s + p
(3)
S r = P S/P
(4a)
s = p p
(4b)
s = p p
b1
[f + b1 (w p ) + a2 (y y)] + (p + s)
1 b1
(5)
p =
(6)
f + b1 (w p ) + a2 (y y) = 0
(7)
A(1 + r) = (A/S)(1 + r )F
(8)
F/S = (1 + r)/(1 + r )
(9)
f s = r r
(10)
(11)
e
St+1
/St = (1 + rt )/(1 + rt )
set+1 st = rt rt
(12)
e
1 + Et Rt+1 (UK US) St+1
(1 + rt )/St
(13)
(14)
ft = Et st+1
(15)
set+1 = set+1 st = (r r )t
(16)
(17)
set+1 = pet+1 pe
t+1
rt pet+1 = rt pe
t+1
(10.2)
SRi =
(10.3)
St At Lt
(10.4)
(10.6)
(10.8)
(10.9)
i Rf
i
Ft At /Lt
RACSt =
t [St+1 ]
At
Lt 2
B B E
1
At
2
2 2
E + B
B E
18
Lt
Lt
1 +
Rf (1 )
B
At
At
E B
(10.10)
(10.11)
(10.13)
Et [Rx,t+1 ] =
E [Ft+1 ] (1 p) + p
Ft
1 + E [Rx ]
t
1
1 + E [Rx ]
1p
E0 [Ft ] =
F0 + p
1p
E [Rx ] + p
(10.14)
(10.A.1)
V = Cer(T t)
(10.A.2)
(10.A.4)
(10.A.14)
(10.A.16)
(10.A.22)
dV
dC
=
(T t)dr + rdt
V
C
Lt 2
B E B
1
At
=
2 + 2 2
E
E B
B
Lt
Lt
1 +
[Rf (1 ) + ]
B
At
At
=
E B
t
1 + x
t
1
1 + x
1p
E0 [Ft ] =
F0 + p
1p
x + p
p
X
i yti =
i=1
(3.4)
q
X
i=1
i ati , yt = rt 0
(p114)
(p114)
F =
(3.5)
k
X
i xit
i=1
t = t t , t2 = 0 + 1 a2t1 + + m a2tm
(p117)
t = t t , t2 = 0 + 1 a2t1
(p118)
E(a4t ) =
(p120)
T
Y
1
a2
p
exp t2 f (a1 , . . . , am |)
=
2t
2t2
t=m+1
320 (1 + 1 )
(1 1 )(1 312 )
19
(p121)
(3.7)
(3.8)
(p121)
(3.9)
(p122)
(3.10)
(3.11)
T
X
1 a2t
1
2
(am+1 , . . . , aT |, 1 , . . . , m ) =
ln(t ) +
2
2 t2
t=m+1
1+
[(v + 1)/2]
p
f ( t |v) =
(v/2) (v 2)
(v+1)/2
2
t
, v>2
v2
T
X
v+1
a2t
1
2
(am+1 , . . . , aT |, Am ) =
ln 1 +
+ ln(t )
2
(v 2)t2
2
t=m+1
h i
+1
(am+1 , . . . , aT |, , Am ) = (T m) ln
ln
2
2
o
0.5 ln[( 2)] + (am+1 , . . . , aT |, Am )
)|v] if t <
/
+ 1 f [( t +
g( t |, v) =
2
f [( t +
)/|v] if t
/
+ 1
1
[( 1)/2] 2
1
, 2 = 2 + 2 1 2
(/2)
1
v
v exp 2 |x/|
, < x < , 0 < v
f (x) =
2(1+1/v) (1/v)
m
X
i h2 ( i). where h2 ( i) = a2h+ i if i 0
h2 ( ) = 0 +
=
i=1
(3.14)
GARCH(m, s) : at = t t ,
t2
= 0 +
m
X
i a2ti
i=1
s
X
2
j tj
j=1
max(m,s)
(3.15)
GARCH(m, s) : a2t = 0 +
i=1
(p132)
(3.17)
E(a4t )
3[1 (1 + 1 )2 ]
=
>3
[E(a2t )]2
1 (1 + 1 )2 212
h2 ( ) = 0 + (1 + 1 )h2 ( 1),
0 [1 (1 + 1 )
1 1 1
(p133)
h2 ( ) =
(3.22)
h2 ( ) = h2 (1) + ( 1)0 ,
(3.23)
(3.24)
(p143)
(p143)
(i + i )a2ti + t
s
X
j tj
j=1
>1
+ (1 + 1 )
1 2
h (1)
2
GARCH(1, 1) M : rt = + ct2 + at , at = t t , t2 = 0 + 1 a2t1 + 1 t1
g( t ) = t + [| t | E(| t |)]
( + ) t E(| t |) if
g( t ) =
( ) t E(| t |) if
2 2[( + 1)/2]
E(| t |) =
( 1)(/2)
t
t
0
<0
(3.25)
EGARCH(m, s) : at = t t , ln(t2 ) = 0 +
(3.26)
at = t t , (1 B) ln(t2 ) = (1 )0 + g(
20
1 + 1 B + + s1 B s1
g(
1 1 B m B m
t1 )
t1 )
+ ( + ) t1
+ ( )( t=1 )
at1
exp ( + )
t1
2
exp( )
t2 = t1
|a
t1 |
exp ( )
t1
(3.27)
(1
(p144)
B) ln(t2 )
if
if
t1
t1
0
<0
if at1 0
if at1 < 0
2
= h21 exp[(1 1 )0 ] exp[g( h+1 )]
h+1
p
h
i
2
2
E{exp[g( )]} = exp 2/ e(+) /2 ( + ) + e() /2 ( )
h2 (j) =
(p148)
(p148)
(p148)
1 2 00
0
f (S)
]
2
1
= f (E[S]) + f 00 (E[S])E[ 2 ]
2
The LHS is greater than the RHS by approximately
1 00
f (E[S])E[ 2 ]
2
(x a)2
1
, < x < , = a, 2 = b2
exp
f (x) =
2b2
2b
Lognormal:
1
1 2
1
2
f (x) =
exp 2 (ln(x) a) , x > 0, = exp a + b , 2 = exp 2a + b2 exp(b2 ) 1
2b
2
2bx
Poisson:
p(x) =
ea ax
, x = 0, 1, . . . , = a, 2 = a
x!
Chi square (note that this is a generalization of the usual chi-square distribution):
f (x) =
e(x+a)/2 X xi1+v/2 ai
, x 0, = v + a, 2 = 2(v + 2a)
2i j!(i + v/2)
2
2v/2
i=0
21
Gumbel:
f (x) =
1
exp
b
Weibull:
c
f (x) =
b
ax
b
xa
b
c1
ax
1
exp e b , < x < , = a + b, 2 = 2 b2 where = 0.577216 . . .
6
2 !
xa
c+2
c+1
c+1
2
2
exp
, x > a, = a+b
, = b
b
c
c
c
Students t:
xa 2 ! c+1
2
c+1
c
2
2
b
, < x < , = a for c > 1, =
f (x) =
b2 for c > 2.
1+
c
c2
b c 2c
Pareto:
f (x) =
bab
ab
a2 b
2
,
x
a,
=
=
for b > 2
for
b
>
1,
xb+1
a1
(b 2)(b 1)2
Uniform:
f (x) =
1
a + b 2 (b a)2
, a < x < b, =
, =
ba
2
12
Inverse normal:
2 !
b
b xa
a3
2
f (x) =
exp
=
,
x
>
0,
=
a,
2x3
2x
a
b
Gamma:
f (x) =
1
b(c)
xa
b
c1
exp
ax
b
, x a, = a + bc, 2 = b2 c
Logistic
exp xa
1
1 2 2
2
b
f (x) =
xa 2 , < x < , = a, = b
b 1 + exp
3
b
Laplace:
f (x) =
1
|x a|
exp
, < x < , = a, 2 = 2b2
2b
b
Cauchy:
f (x) =
Beta:
f (x) =
Exponential:
1
f (x) = exp
b
ax
b
, x a, = a + b, 2 = b2
Lvy:
no closed form for density function, = , variance is infinite unless = 2, when it is 2 = 2v
22