1/20/2015

HowNuclearWeaponsCanKeepYouSafe

How Nuclear Weapons Can Keep You Safe

BY JONATHAN

TEPPERMAN 8/28/09 AT 8:00 PM

OnSept.24,PresidentBarackObamawillbringtogether14worldleadersforaspecialU.N.
SecurityCouncilmeetinginNewYork.Ontheagenda:howtoridtheworldofnuclear
weapons.Thesummitisthelateststepintheadministration'scampaigntoeliminatenukes,a
priorityObamastressedonthecampaigntrailandformallyannouncedinAprilduringhis
speechinPrague.U.S.attemptstostopIranfromacquiringthebombandtoprytheweapons
outofNorthKorea'sfingersarealsokeypartsofthiscampaign.
Theseeffortsareallgroundedinthesameproposition:that,asObamahassaidseveraltimes,
nuclearweaponsrepresentthe"gravestthreat"toU.S.security.Thisargumenthasalotgoing
forit.It'sstronglyintuitive,asanyonewho'severseenpicturesofHiroshimaorNagasaki
knows.It'salsopopularU.S.presidentshavebeenmakingsimilarnoisessincetheEisenhower
administration,andhaltingthespreadofnukes(ifnoteliminatingthemaltogether)isoneofthe
fewthingsObama,VladimirPutin,HuJintao,andBenjaminNetanyahucanallagreeon.
There'sjustoneproblemwiththereasoning:itmaywellbewrong.
Agrowingandcompellingbodyofresearchsuggeststhatnuclearweaponsmaynot,infact,
maketheworldmoredangerous,asObamaandmostpeopleassume.Thebombmayactually
makeussafer.Inthiseraofroguestatesandtransnationalterrorists,thatideasoundsso
obviouslywrongheadedthatfewpoliticiansorpolicymakersarewillingtoentertainit.But
that'samistake.Knowingthetruthaboutnukeswouldhaveaprofoundimpactongovernment
policy.Obama'sidealisticcampaign,sooutofcharacterforapragmaticadministration,maybe
unlikelytogetfar(pastpresidentshavetriedandfailed).Butit'snotevenclearheshouldmake
theeffort.TherearemoreimportantmeasurestheU.S.governmentcanandshouldtaketo
maketherealworldsafer,andthesemustn'tbeignoredinthenameofadreamyideal(anuke
freeplanet)that'sbothunrealisticandpossiblyundesirable.

Try Newsweek for only $1.25 per week

http://www.newsweek.com/hownuclearweaponscankeepyousafe78907

1/7

1/20/2015

HowNuclearWeaponsCanKeepYouSafe

Theargumentthatnuclearweaponscanbeagentsofpeaceaswellasdestructionrestsontwo
deceptivelysimpleobservations.First,nuclearweaponshavenotbeenusedsince1945.Second,
there'sneverbeenanuclear,orevenanonnuclear,warbetweentwostatesthatpossessthem.
Juststopforasecondandthinkaboutthat:it'shardtooverstatehowremarkableitis,especially
giventhesingularviciousnessofthe20thcentury.AsKennethWaltz,theleading"nuclear
optimist"andaprofessoremeritusofpoliticalscienceatUCBerkeleyputsit,"Wenowhave64
yearsofexperiencesinceHiroshima.It'sstrikingandagainstallhistoricalprecedentthatfor
thatsubstantialperiod,therehasnotbeenanywaramongnuclearstates."
Tounderstandwhyandwhythenext64yearsarelikelytoplayoutthesamewayyouneed
tostartbyrecognizingthatallstatesarerationalonsomebasiclevel.Theirleadersmaybe
stupid,petty,venal,evenevil,buttheytendtodothingsonlywhenthey'reprettysuretheycan
getawaywiththem.Takewar:acountrywillstartafightonlywhenit'salmostcertainitcan
getwhatitwantsatanacceptableprice.NotevenHitlerorSaddamwagedwarstheydidn't
thinktheycouldwin.Theproblemhistoricallyhasbeenthatleadersoftenmakethewrong
gambleandunderestimatetheothersideandmillionsofinnocentspaytheprice.
Nuclearweaponschangeallthatbymakingthecostsofwarobvious,inevitable,and
unacceptable.Suddenly,whenbothsideshavetheabilitytoturntheothertoasheswiththe
pushofabuttonandeverybodyknowsitthebasicmathshifts.Eventhecraziesttinpot
dictatorisforcedtoacceptthatwarwithanuclearstateisunwinnableandthusnotworththe
effort.AsWaltzputsit,"Whyfightifyoucan'twinandmightloseeverything?"
Whyindeed?Theironlogicofdeterrenceandmutuallyassureddestructionissocompelling,
it'sledtowhat'sknownasthenuclearpeace:thevirtuallyunprecedentedstretchsincetheend
ofWorldWarIIinwhichalltheworld'smajorpowershaveavoidedcomingtoblows.Theydid
fightproxywars,rangingfromKoreatoVietnamtoAngolatoLatinAmerica.Butthesenever
matchedthefuriousdestructionoffullon,greatpowerwar(WorldWarIIalonewas
responsibleforsome50millionto70milliondeaths).AndsincetheendoftheColdWar,such
bloodshedhasdeclinedprecipitously.Meanwhile,thenuclearpowershavescrupulously
avoideddirectcombat,andthere'sverygoodreasontothinktheyalwayswill.Therehavebeen
somenearmisses,butacloselookatthesecasesisfundamentallyreassuringbecauseineach
instance,verydifferentleadersallcametothesamesafeconclusion.

http://www.newsweek.com/hownuclearweaponscankeepyousafe78907

2/7

1/20/2015

HowNuclearWeaponsCanKeepYouSafe

Takethemotherofallnuclearstandoffs:theCubanmissilecrisis.For13daysinOctober1962,
theUnitedStatesandtheSovietUnioneachthreatenedtheotherwithdestruction.Butboth
countriessoonsteppedbackfromthebrinkwhentheyrecognizedthatawarwouldhavemeant
curtainsforeveryone.Asimportantasthefactthattheydidisthereasonwhy:Sovietleader
NikitaKhrushchev'saideFyodorBurlatskysaidlateron,"Itisimpossibletowinanuclearwar,
andbothsidesrealizedthat,maybeforthefirsttime."
Therecordsincethenshowsthesamepatternrepeating:nucleararmedenemiesslidetoward
war,thenpullback,alwaysforthesamereasons.ThebestrecentexampleisIndiaandPakistan,
whichfoughtthreebloodywarsafterindependencebeforeacquiringtheirownnukesin1998.
Gettingtheirhandsonweaponsofmassdestructiondidn'tdoanythingtolessentheiranimosity.
Butitdiddramaticallymellowtheirbehavior.Sinceacquiringatomicweapons,thetwosides
haveneverfoughtanotherwar,despitesevereprovocations(likePakistanibasedterrorist
attacksonIndiain2001and2008).Theyhaveskirmishedonce.Butduringthatflareup,in
Kashmirin1999,bothcountrieswerecarefultokeepthefightinglimitedandtoavoid
threateningtheother'svitalinterests.SumitGanguly,anIndianaUniversityprofessorand
coauthoroftheforthcomingIndia,Pakistan,andtheBomb,hasfoundthatonbothsides,
officials'thinkingwasstrikinglysimilartothatoftheRussiansandAmericansin1962.The
prospectofwarbroughtDelhiandIslamabadfacetofacewithanuclearholocaust,andleaders
ineachcountrydidwhattheyhadtodotoavoidit.
Nuclearpessimistsandtherearemanyinsistthatevenifthispatternhasheldinthepast,it's
crazytorelyonitinthefuture,forseveralreasons.Thefirstisthattoday'snuclearwannabes
aresocompletelyunhinged,you'dbemadtotrustthemwithabomb.TakethesybariticKim
JongIl,who'snevermissedachancetodemonstratehisbattiness,orMahmoudAhmadinejad,
whohasdeniedtheHolocaustandpromisedthedestructionofIsrael,andwho,accordingto
somerespectedMiddleEastscholars,runsamessianicmartyrdomcultthatwouldwelcome
nuclearobliteration.Theseregimesaretheultimaterogues,thethinkinggoesandthere'sno
deterringrogues.
ButareKimandAhmadinejadreallyscarierandcrazierthanwereStalinandMao?Itmight
lookthatwayfromSeoulorTelAviv,buthistorysaysotherwise.Khrushchev,remember,
threatenedto"bury"theUnitedStates,andin1957,Maoblithelydeclaredthatanuclearwar
withAmericawouldn'tbesobadbecauseeven"ifhalfofmankinddiedthewholeworld
wouldbecomesocialist."PyongyangandTehransupportterrorismbutsodidMoscowand

http://www.newsweek.com/hownuclearweaponscankeepyousafe78907

3/7

1/20/2015

HowNuclearWeaponsCanKeepYouSafe

Beijing.Andasforseemingsuicidal,MichaelDeschoftheUniversityofNotreDamepoints
outthatStalinandMaoaretherealrecordholdershere:bothwereresponsibleforthedeathsof
some20millionoftheirowncitizens.
Yetwhenpushcametoshove,theirregimesbalkedatnuclearsuicide,andsowouldtoday's
internationalbogeymen.ForallofAhmadinejad'santics,hispowerislimited,andtheclerical
regimehasalwaysprovedrationalandpragmaticwhenitslifeisontheline.RevolutionaryIran
hasneverstartedawar,hasdonedealswithbothWashingtonandJerusalem,andsuedfor
peaceinitswarwithIraq(whichSaddamstarted)onceitrealizeditcouldn'twin.NorthKorea,
meanwhile,isatiny,impoverished,familyruncountrywithahistoryofbeinginvadedits
overwhelmingpreoccupationissurvival,andeverytimeitbecomesmorebelligerentitreverses
itselfafewmonthslater(witnesslastweek,whenPyongyangtoldSeoulandWashingtonitwas
readytoreturntothebargainingtable).Thesecountriesmaybebrutallyoppressive,butnothing
intheirbehaviorsuggeststheyhaveadeathwish.
Still,evenifIranorNorthKoreaaredeterrable,nuclearpessimistsfearthey'llgiveorselltheir
deadlytoystoterrorists,whoaren'tforit'shardtobombagroupwithnoreturnaddress.Yet
lookclosely,andtheriskofaWMDhandoffstartstoseemoverblown.Foronething,assuming
Iranisabletoactuallybuildanuke,Deschexplainsthat"itdoesn'tmakesensethatthey'dthen
givesomethingtheyregardascentraltotheirsurvivaltogroupslikeHizbullah,overwhichthey
havelimitedcontrol.AsforAlQaeda,theydon'tevensharecommoninterests.Whywouldthe
mullahsgiveOsamabinLadenthecrownjewels?"Todosowouldbefatal,forWashingtonhas
madeitveryclearthatitwouldregardanyterroristuseofaWMDasanattackbythecountry
thatsupplieditandwouldrespondaccordingly.
AmuchgreaterthreatisthatanuclearNorthKoreaorPakistancouldcollapseandlosecontrol
ofitsweaponsentirely.Yethereagainhistoryofferssomecomfort.Chinaacquireditsfirst
nukein1964,justtwoyearsbeforeitdescendedintothemadchaosoftheCulturalRevolution,
whenvirtuallyeveryChineseinstitutionwasthreatenedexceptforitsnuclearinfrastructure,
whichremainedsecure."Itwasnearlyacoup,"saysDesch,"yetwithalltheunrest,nobody
everthoughtthattheremightbeanunauthorizednuclearuse."TheSoviets'weaponswerealso
keptlargelysafe(withU.S.help)duringthebreakupoftheirunionintheearly'90s.Andin
recentyearsMoscowhasgreatlyuppeditsdefensespending(by20to30percentayear),using
someofthecashtomodernizeandprotectitsarsenal.

http://www.newsweek.com/hownuclearweaponscankeepyousafe78907

4/7

1/20/2015

HowNuclearWeaponsCanKeepYouSafe

AsforPakistan,ithastakennumerousprecautionstoensurethatitsownweaponsareinsulated
fromthecountry'schaos,installingcomplicatedfiringmechanismstopreventalaunchbylone
radicals,forexample,andinstitutingspecialtrainingandscreeningforitsnuclearpersonnelto
ensurethey'renotinfiltratedbyextremists.EvenifthePakistanistatedidcollapseentirelythe
nightmarescenariothechanceofaTalibanbombwouldstillberemote.Descharguesthatthe
ideathatterrorists"couldusetheseweaponsradicallyunderestimatesthedifficultyofactually
operatingamodernnucleararsenal.Thesethingsneedconstantmaintenanceandthey'revery
easytodisable.Sotheideathatthesethingscouldbestuffedintoagunnysackandsmuggled
acrosstheRioGrandeispreposterous."
Theriskofanarmsracewith,say,otherPersianGulfstatesrushingtobuildabombafterIran
gotoneisabithardertodispel.Onceagain,however,historyisinstructive."In64years,the
mostnuclearweaponsstateswe'veeverhadis12,"saysWaltz."NowwithNorthKoreawe're
atnine.That'snotproliferationthat'sspreadatglacialpace."Nuclearweaponsareso
controversialandexpensivethatonlycountriesthatdeemthemabsolutelycriticaltotheir
survivalgothroughtheextremetroubleofacquiringthem.That'swhySouthAfrica,Ukraine,
Belarus,andKazakhstanvoluntarilygavetheirsupintheearly'90s,andwhyothercountries
likeBrazilandArgentinadroppednascentprograms.Thisdoesn'tguaranteethatoneormoreof
Iran'sneighborsEgyptorSaudiArabia,saymightnotstillgoforthebombifIranmanages
tobuildone.Buttherisksofarapidspreadarelow,especiallygivenSecretaryofStateHillary
Clinton'srecentsuggestionthattheUnitedStateswouldextendanuclearumbrellaoverthe
region,asWashingtonhasoverSouthKoreaandJapan,ifIrandoescompleteabomb.Ifoneor
twoGulfstatesnonethelessdecidedtopursuetheirownweapon,thatstillmightnotbeso
disastrous,giventhewaythatbombstendtomellowbehavior.
Putthisalltogetherandnuclearweaponsstarttoseemalotlessfrightening.Sowhyhaveso
fewpeopleinWashingtonrecognizedthis?MostofussufferfromwhatDeschcallsanuclear
phobia,anirrationalfearthat'sgroundedingoodevidencenuclearweaponsareterrifying
butthatkeepsusfrommakingclear,coldbloodedcalculationsaboutjusthowdangerous
possessingthemactuallyis.Thelogicofnuclearpeacerestsonascarybargain:youaccepta
smallchancethatsomethingextremelybadwillhappeninexchangeforamuchbiggerchance
thatsomethingverybadconventionalwarwon'thappen.Thismaywellbearationalbetto
take,especiallyifthatfirstriskisverysmallindeed.Butit'satoughcasetomaketothepublic.

http://www.newsweek.com/hownuclearweaponscankeepyousafe78907

5/7

1/20/2015

HowNuclearWeaponsCanKeepYouSafe

Still,it'sworthkeepinginmindasObamacoaxestheworldtowardnucleardisarmament
especiallybecausehe'sdestinedtofail.TheRussiansandChinesehaveshownlittleinclination
togiveuptheirnukes,forseveralreasonschiefamongthemthattheU.S.isvastlymore
powerfulinconventionalterms,andtheseweaponsarethustheirmainwayoflevelingthe
playingfield.MoscowandBeijingwouldlikelybeunmovedbyanythingshortofaunilateral
U.S.disarmament,whichnooneinWashingtoncontemplates.AndevenifRussiaandChina
(andFrance,Britain,Israel,India,andPakistan)couldbecoaxedtoabandontheirweapons,
we'dstilllivewiththefearthatanyofthemcouldquicklyandsecretlyrearm.Meanwhile,the
U.S.campaigntoslowIran'sweaponsprogramandreverseNorthKorea'sisalsounlikelyto
work.Stateswantnukesiftheyfeeltheirsurvivalisinjeopardy.TheObamaadministration
mayhavedroppedtalkofregimechange,butitcontinuestothreatenPyongyangandTehran.
Thatensuresthestandoffwillcontinue,forsolongasthesestatesfeelinsecure,they'llnever
giveuptheirnucleardreams.
Giventhisreality,Washingtonwouldbewisertofocusonmakingtheworldweactuallylivein
thenuclearworldsafer.Thisinvolvesseveralsteps,fewofwhichtheObama
administrationhasmentionedbutwhichitshouldemphasizeinitsNuclearPostureReviewdue
attheendoftheyear.Tostart,thelogicofdeterrenceworksonlyifeverybodyknowswhohas
anucleararsenalandthuscan'tbeattackedasPeterSellersputsitinStanleyKubrick'sDr.
Strangelove,"ThewholepointofaDoomsdayMachineislostifyoukeepitasecret!"Sothe
UnitedStatesshouldmakesureeveryoneknowsroughlywhohaswhat,tokeepanyonefrom
gettingdangerousideas.Onasimilarnote,theUnitedStatesshouldputmoreeffortinto
advancingwhatHarvard'sGrahamAllisoncalls"nuclearforensics,"anemergingdisciplinethat
wouldallowscientiststotraceanynucleardeviceexplodedanywhere,byanybodybeita
stateoraterroristbacktoitsmanufacturerandpointoforigin(sincethiswouldconvince
roguestheycan'trisksellingbombstobadguys).
Apoliticallytougherbutequallyimportantstepwouldbetomakesurethatanynuclear
weaponsstatehaswhat'scalleda"survivablesecondstrikeoption,"ameansofensuringthat
evenifattacked,itcouldstillshootback,sincethisisthebestwaytopersuadeitsenemiesnot
tobothertryingtoincapacitateitthroughasurpriseattack(asJosephCirincioneofthe
PloughsharesFundpointsout,thiscanbedonewithasmallarsenalandneednotnecessitatea
bigbuildup).Finally,Washingtonshouldcontinuedoingwhatit'sdonewithRussiaand
Pakistantohelpthoseregimeskeeptheirweaponssafe.Theadministrationhasannounced
planstohelpsecureloosenukes,andthat'salltothegood.Butitshouldbepreparedtoofferthe
sametechnologyandtrainingtoothernewnuclearstatesiftheyemergeevenifthey'reU.S.

http://www.newsweek.com/hownuclearweaponscankeepyousafe78907

6/7

1/20/2015

HowNuclearWeaponsCanKeepYouSafe

enemies.Criticswillscreamthatdoingsowouldrewardbadbehaviorandencourageitin
others.Itmight.Butitwouldalsohelpkeepeveryonesafefromanaccidentallaunch,which
seemsalotmoreimportant.Noneofthesestepswillbeeasytopitchtothepublic,evenfora
presidentasgiftedandnimbleasObama.Butasheheadsintoararenuclearsummitinlate
September,theleasthecoulddoisholdafrankdebateonwhat'sreallythebeststrategyfor
securingtheworldfromorwiththeseweapons.Giventhestakes,hecanhardlyaffordnot
to.
JOIN THE DISCUSSION

http://www.newsweek.com/hownuclearweaponscankeepyousafe78907

7/7