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Ligjrata e 10
Regresioni linear i thjesht II
Qllimet e msimit
N kt ligjrat ju do t msoni:
Si t prdorni analizn e regresioninit pr t parashikuar
vlern e e variabls s varur bazuar n variabln e pavarur.
Kuptimin e koefiecentve t regresionit b0 dhe b1
T konkludoni rreth koeficientit t pjerrsis dhe
koeficientit t korrelacionit
Se si ti lexoni dhe interpretoni rezultatet e nxjerra prmes
Excel-it.
Llojet e raporteve
Raporte lineare
Raporte jolineare
X
Y
X
Y
Llojet e raporteve
(vazhdim
Lidhje t forta
Lidhje t dobta
X
Y
X
Y
Llojet e raporteve
(vazhdim)
Nuk ka lidhje fare
Y
X
Y
Variabla e
varur
Ndrprerja n
boshtin Y, n
populacion
Koeficienti i
pjerrsis s
populacionit
Variabla e
pavarur
Gabimi i
rastsishm
Yi 0 1Xi i
Komponenta lineare
Komponenta e
gabimit t rastsishm
Yi 0 1Xi i
Vlerat e
vrojtuara t Y
pr Xi
Vlerat e
projektuara t Y
pr Xi
Pjerrsia = 1
Gabimi i
rastsishm pr
kt vler t Xi
Ndrprerja = 0
Xi
Vlersimi i
prerjes s
regresionit
Vlersimi i
pjerrsis s
regresionit
b b X
Y
i
0
1 i
Vlera e X pr
vrojtimin i
)2 min (Y (b b X ))2
min (Yi Y
i
i
0
1 i
b b X
Y
i
0
1 i
Siprfaqja ne m2
(X)
245
1400
312
1600
279
1700
308
1875
199
1100
219
1550
405
2350
324
2450
319
1425
255
1700
Rezultati i Excel-it
Regression Statistics
Multiple R
0.76211
R Square
0.58082
Adjusted R Square
Standard Error
0.52842
41.33032
Observations
b b X
Y
i
0
1
i
10
ANOVA
MS
Regression
df
1
18934.9348
SS
18934.9348
11.0848
Residual
13665.5652
1708.1957
Total
32600.5000
Coefficients
Standard Error
t Stat
P-value
Significance F
0.01039
Lower 95%
Upper 95%
Intercept
b0
98.24833
58.03348
1.69296
0.12892
-35.57720
232.07386
Meter katror
b1
0.10977
0.03297
3.32938
0.01039
0.03374
0.18580
Prezantimi grafik
Modeli i mimit t shtpive: diagrami
shprndars dhe vija e regresionit
Pjerrsia
= 0.10977
Prerja
= 98.248
Interpretimi i koeficientit t
pjerrsis, b1
mimi i shtepive 98.24833 0.10977 (meter katror)
Interpolimi kundrejt
ekstrapolimit
Kur prdoret modeli i regresionit pr parashikim, parashikoni
vetm n kuadr t vargut t vlerave t vrojtuara
Vargu relevant per
interpolim
Mos provoni t
parashikoni prtej
vargut t vlerave
t vrojtuara t X
Masat e variacionit
Variacioni total prbhet nga dy pjes:
SST
Shuma totale e
katroreve
SSR
Shuma e katrorve
t regresionit
SST ( Yi Y)2
Y)2
SSR ( Y
i
SSE
Shuma e katrorve t
gabimit
)2
SSE ( Yi Y
i
Ku:
Masat e variacionit
(vazhdim)
Masat e variacionit
(vazhdim)
Y
Yi
SSE = (Yi - Yi )2
_
Y
Xi
_
Y
Koefiecienti i determinacionit, r2
Koeficienti i determinacionit sht pjesa e
variacioneve totale n variabln e varur e cila
spjegohet me variacionet n variabln e pavarur
Koeficienti i determinacionit gjithashtu quhet r n
katror dhe shnohet si r2
r2
SST
Shuma totale e katroreve
Vereni :
0 r2 1
Rezultati i Excel-it
r2
Regression Statistics
Multiple R
0.76211
R Square
0.58082
Adjusted R Square
Standard Error
SSR 18934.9348
0.58082
SST 32600.5000
58.08% e variacioneve n
mimin e shtpive spjegohet
prmes variacioneve n
siprafqen me meter katror.
0.52842
41.33032
Observations
10
ANOVA
MS
Regression
df
1
18934.9348
SS
18934.9348
11.0848
Residual
13665.5652
1708.1957
Total
32600.5000
Coefficients
Intercept
Square Feet
Standard Error
t Stat
P-value
Significance F
0.01039
Lower 95%
Upper 95%
98.24833
58.03348
1.69296
0.12892
-35.57720
232.07386
0.10977
0.03297
3.32938
0.01039
0.03374
0.18580
S YX
SSE
n2
( Y Y )
i1
n2
Ku:
SSE = shuma e katrorve t gabimit t rastsishm
n = madhsia e mostrs
Rezultati i Excel-it
Regression Statistics
Multiple R
0.76211
R Square
0.58082
Adjusted R Square
Standard Error
SYX 41.33032
0.52842
41.33032
Observations
10
ANOVA
MS
Regression
df
1
18934.9348
SS
18934.9348
11.0848
Residual
13665.5652
1708.1957
Total
32600.5000
Coefficients
Intercept
Square Feet
Standard Error
t Stat
Significance F
P-value
0.01039
Lower 95%
Upper 95%
98.24833
58.03348
1.69296
0.12892
-35.57720
232.07386
0.10977
0.03297
3.32938
0.01039
0.03374
0.18580
S YX
SSX
S YX
(X X)
ku:
Rezultati i Excel-it
Regression Statistics
Multiple R
0.76211
R Square
0.58082
Adjusted R Square
Standard Error
0.52842
Sb1 0.03297
41.33032
Observations
10
ANOVA
MS
Regression
df
1
18934.9348
SS
18934.9348
11.0848
Residual
13665.5652
1708.1957
Total
32600.5000
Coefficients
Intercept
Meter katror
Standard Error
t Stat
P-value
Significance F
0.01039
Lower 95%
Upper 95%
98.24833
58.03348
1.69296
0.12892
-35.57720
232.07386
0.10977
0.03297
3.32938
0.01039
0.03374
0.18580
Testi statistikor
b
t 1 1
Sb1
sh.l. n 2
ku:
b1 = koeficienti i pjerrsis s
regresionit
1 = Pjerrsia e supozuar
Sb1= Gabimi standard i
pjerrsis
mimi i
shtpive
$1000
(y)
Siperfaqja
(meter katror)
(x)
245
1400
312
1600
279
1700
308
1875
199
1100
219
1550
405
2350
324
2450
319
1425
255
1700
b1
Standard Error
Sb1
t Stat
P-value
98.24833
58.03348
1.69296
0.12892
0.10977
0.03297
3.32938
0.01039
b1 1 0.10977 0
3.32938
t
Sb1
0.03297
b1
Standard Error
Sb1
t Stat
P-value
98.24833
58.03348
1.69296
0.12892
0.10977
0.03297
3.32938
0.01039
sh.l. = 10-2 = 8
a/2=.025
Refuzo H0
a/2=.025
Mos e prano H0
-t/2
-2.3060
t/2
Refuzo H0
2.3060 3.329
Vendimi:
Refuzo H0
Konkluzion:
Ka mjaft t dhna se siprfaqja
n meter katror ka ndikim n
mimin e shitjes s shtpive.
Vlera e P = 0.01039
H0: 1 = 0
H1: 1 0
Vlera e P-
t Stat
P-value
98.24833
Standard Error
58.03348
1.69296
0.12892
0.10977
0.03297
3.32938
0.01039
b1 t n2Sb1
sh.l. = n - 2
t Stat
P-value
98.24833
Standard Error
58.03348
1.69296
0.12892
Lower 95%
-35.57720
Upper 95%
232.07386
0.10977
0.03297
3.32938
0.01039
0.03374
0.18580
(vazhdim)
Coefficients
Intercept
Meter katror
t Stat
P-value
98.24833
Standard Error
58.03348
1.69296
0.12892
Lower 95%
-35.57720
Upper 95%
232.07386
0.10977
0.03297
3.32938
0.01039
0.03374
0.18580
Testi t pr Koeficientin e
Korrelacionit
Hipotezat:
H0: = 0 (Nuk ka korrelacion n mes t X dhe Y)
HA: 0
(Ka korrelacion n mes t X dhe Y)
Testi Statistikor
r-
ku
1 r2
n2
korrelacioni ne populacion
r r 2 nese b1 0
r r 2 nese b1 0
r
1 r2
n2
0.762 0
1 0.7622
10 2
3.329
r
1 r 2
n2
.762 0
1 .7622
10 2
3.329
Konkluzion:
Ka evidenc se
ekziston lidhje
lineare n
nivelin 5% t
signifikancs.
Sh.l. = 10-2 = 8
a/2=0.025
Refuzo H0
-t/2
-2.3060
a/2=0.025
Mos e refuzo H0
Vendimi:
Refuzo H0
Refuzo H0
t/2
2.3060
3.329
Prfundime
Hyrje n analizn e regresionit
Rishikim i supozimeve t analizs s regresionit
Ekuacioni i regresionit t thjesht linear
Prshkrimi i masave t variacionit
Prurja e konkluzioneve rreth pjerrsis s
koeficientit t regresionit
Analizimi i korrelacionit-matja e fortsis s
lidhjeve, etj