Re-Engineering Philosophy for Limited Beings 3F PIECEWISE APPROXIMATIONS TO REALITY WILLIAM C, WIMSATT ‘Tu 2c wong onl tie mneger AB suucse Se es eis ena (Orne Ses N eee - Cambridge, Masschusers, and London, England 2007rah ©2407 te ren an lost aa Cee Saperert ir of Congr Cala "Keener boy fri ing ice penton lade apd a ‘Seto certs Tomy generators and support ests my paren, Ruch and Bill Wimsatt present: ny parner in lif, Barbara Hoberg Wirsatt future: oe son, Wiliam Samuel Abell (*Upski") WimsattPreface othe cay 1990s, when finally decided it waste opt ogee the papers that would bosom this volume, the tds of einai were Pea their high-water mark. Game testy increasingly domimited eco ome and poll selene, and oprimizer in ecm ere aking to thos in bilogy, Rationalism had been song io philosophy for my tie profesional genration,tegnning in the mi 1960s. Nave tals’ hold seemed ls etre. Reale seemed the rete, aot only within philosophy but alu wih thee of wince tis "Now we oe 2 growing and relesing emiien sot many things “philosophies even rationality sul, Tena! ieaiztions seem lepsatsfctry on al ses. New dicilines have emerged nesting many of our knots probs of the biologal and human sciences ‘host peblans often eld mathologial conceptual or pilesoph ial ad inctasingly described ax comple, i thease of chapters 8, sand 10 ofthis wlan Behavioral decision choot has begun have i day. Gierener, this, and exer proj amore hears, col Iecive and conextally imbedded sage of out intel power. An ‘lorion isthe pst decade of works on human biological cogs, Sexi, cutra, and above al eolecive evolution have made it ony ‘atral olook for oar human natura though 2 hitocally and 5c ll informed tidiasplinay scene perspective, The human ence nd the Dario scinces,clster terns enegig i the pst Assad are bouh appropriately named and increasingly interpene- trating, Pesape Herbert Simon and Donald Campbell dierent btvi + Price ‘ons evottonar visions of or kind wil come to pase (ee more tn this belo "Bet there alo alive aniscetin abroad opposing ti—pechaps lanai esponse to the exesiverefctonam the pas generation Philosophers like Joa MacDowell se siente perspectives on hum urea too coats, rgd, and insensive a eapte or nrentona rls of mind and clare Past materi have cel promised iba renewal of tha seighborhooes to make room forthe text seemingly spare material, bringing «bullae when a sue ‘ison mision wa ald fo, Thi nee the for ofiaeraive mate ‘lism now emerging Stifccalial lions now blossom, and new ogres sal of the haman and Darwinian sciences could seat from "cher and more appreciative iterdiilinary interactions. Hope, ‘soagh prectiioners of waditionsldissiplines will exognize dat ‘again tie fr new infusions forthe heath ofall an wil rest the ‘empaatio t etetdefesive concept ade barr. The ions of the fromespiece simultaneously document the huis of too-simple ‘hysc-nspiced reductionism, and ry commitment co “eveything in between” Ieisthus singly stable way to bain his book thank Sidney Haris for pormison to we hi inspired wry hight on the suman scitic cron, “The olde of these chapters gps hack more than 30 year: the youngest only aw month har been abo 25 years sine Lindsay ‘Waters sigusted hat T put a ook of them together, and Tm apy sow to sureeder my seo 6 his longest standing promt thought has evolved from a collin of papers oa more systematic work He has minsined an onging cotversaion and stam of suggestions (Geadings 2 wel a moda ll along, For yar I did ave the right mi an others develope lange, Thre re, Thopethe feof more “ght mixes” eo come. This colton combine elder paper, newer ones (geeal never Before publithed and writen cepeily for ‘his wolame), and btn new trductory eye ‘Wi the older paper (chapter: 4-6 and 8-11) [have mde ouly minor stylistic revisions, removed old misprints, and ocasonally Added new bibliographical relrenss. Chap ston on ox lection was rocanized to eliminate eedandancies with Chapter 4 “These papers have aged well—ofe aniipating newer diechons ad «sill evant ab they sand, hough reerence ad decipions of ees Positions are occasionally dated. When not cetal to the argent, 1 hase let thes anche I apply a matory conse ation Price + be lity othe anal f the complex wold we ive in, and to wha kinds ‘of fedngs we are that we doso.1 ope the colli ha the ght books tnd balance to interes scents a plosophers lke Ia nats Tine and reli philosophy of since for Limited beings sing ‘ch is inited worl. mine enc for pilospicllsont mare ‘commonly thin the revene. The hey concepts hee (eobustess heart seeps, ear dacemporbiiy, ees of orpanizaton, eck nite explanation, ad generstveeneenchnet) are applied to ex plore the comntie tools with which we approsch the orld and oot ps in, Reductions the eourveof pat and continuing threat of “saul from below om the Raman sicces and umanties—is Both tang and esouse as mach or ts methodology a for i ele. The rule slr, cher vision of oar world and our place ia i chan Promised by both ids in he histay ofthe wadare between men talsns and materialams. Ie sa more appropiate philosophy of ei fc, than we have been ven 0 fe -Ackaoledgments ae spread hens he chops endotes. The new ms ‘erin (capers 13,7, moat of 1, and 135 the par inodtions; and ‘he appends) emerged daring and berwen several “wring teats 1 ‘hak the staf of Vila Sell, the Receflle Foundation Cate st Relig in warm, dy, bel, and amicable March 1997), the Franke Hamanies Center a Chisgo (fo nother pat of that yar and 11 2004-2005), anally the a and lows of he Nasional Himsa tes Comer in Resch Tange Park of Raleigh-Ducham, North Cat ‘in fo lori yearn 2000-2001. Tei catalyses were el hough tominalydrssedeowaed other projets, now further along ad beer ‘han they would have been without tet Belp. Some cher benefited liom te support of he Naozl Scat Foundation andthe Sytem De ‘lopment Foundation and my sider, mdergradune and graduate, Played a contnsng role at dives al sounding Board many even 5 they developed te awn caren Parlay among thea (n temporal trad) have boon Bly Richardson, Bill Hebel Boo McCauley, J CGisemer, Sabor Sahar, Jey Sehan, and Scart iene. Sehank td Greener ouuthored emipe papers (ad Sch, sfeae) with ‘nein the poses, and were partial pode for my own thou Deeply formate infcress of Herter Simon, Doma” Carepbel, Richard Lewontin, Richard Loving and Frnk Rosen all began or sein the mid 196 and have ere, Michael Wades example nd eex» Pace search sine 1975 hasbeen 4 rich sours of napiation, Vil eviy thing consent combined fom tei peapetvr fd Pete—at wel pathaps as few that aren't Predocve esos arise eos the et ‘ominon paints of diaprenment and my azamped projections of tt viewpoint new domains. etic has given se mare peti fue tha ean rename. hope tha any peopl le out here wil fa. sive my lack of lab ight. ‘Those commenting on newer materials inde Hob Bateman, Bill Becht, Chir DiTerey. Start Glennan, Jim. Graeme, Tess "einemas-Peiper, Biabeth van Mee, Tom Nickles, Trevor Pearce ‘Matt Schock, Sahowa Sekar, ef Schank, Esc Scheer, Howard Sn, JD. Trout, Jon Toe, flo Tuma, Barbie Wins, nl Billy ‘Wimsatt, Joe Wiliams and Nathan Reich made produce organiza. ‘ional are eden suggestons. Barbara Winsat helped deign and compile the index. Bara ad Bly have traversed the long rsd t0 this book with me, observing helping, and exharsog T ls very big snd extend dark Contents 1 Tnveoduetion 1 11 Myths ofLalacean Omniscience 3 Resin for Lined Binge Rich, Mey Word 5 ‘Sooal Nees 7 esi as Adaptation forte Real Weld. [NatreetBohsots Mecha ond Used Pats Dealer 9 Erorand Change 11 ‘Onumtrtion and Aims of Tis Book 12 2 Normative Idalztions vers the Metals otEnor 15 Inaiegusis of Our Normative Idekzatons 1S Stig Howkts, ond Pole Babar for eal Agni 19 ‘The Productive Ue of Bror-Prowe Procedures 21 2 Toward «Philosophy for Limited Beingx 26 ‘he Sans ond tla ofa Seely Informed Phiosopy of Science 26 cx Paibs, Comply, and Phoxopbial Masbod 28 Or Preset an Patere Nauisie Phicaopical Methods 32si + Coen Il Problem-Solving Strategies for Complex Systems 37 4 Robusenss,Relibiley, and Ovendctrmination 42 Common Fetes of Cones of Rebustuns Robust and he eacneof Teois 6 Rebus Testabiliy, andthe Naar of “Theoret Teme 32 KRobnstna, Radundonn, ad Dicoery 56 Rebus, Obeieatin. and Ress 60 Robusnes and Lees of Organon 6} Howrsir ant Robs 67 Robs ndepoene, nd Pande Robs ‘A GaveSeay 72 5 Hewristis and the Stodyof Human Behavior 75 His 76 Reductions Restrch Soaps and The Biases 40 ‘An Example of Reactions Bases Mol of “Grp Section 8 Hews Cm Hide The Tracks 46 “Tio Stati for Corecting Redon Bases 69 ‘The nortan of Hearts i th Sed of Haman Behavior 390 6 Halse Model at Means to Tine Theories 94 ‘onthe Bat Model Have Biases 98 ‘The Concept of a Nawal Made 97 How Model Cam Marepreat 100 Tce Thing 9 Do with Fae Models 103 ‘Background of be Debate oer Linke Mapping ‘me Gonetcs 106: Cas Attack th Linear Linkage Model 114 Mules Dace ad he Haldane Mapping Paton 17 Males Teo Dino Argument gant Cale 120 Mul Cutrfacal Use of Pau Mode 123 lke Modes Cam Provide New Pedic Tete Higlhng Tetras of «Preferred Model 126 ake Mode and Adapiee Dvn Arpaments 128 7. Robustnes and Entrenchment: How the Contingent Becomes Necessary 133 Gonratv Entrenchment andthe Arce of ‘Adrpive Design 133 Ganratve Sym Comet Dominate Tooltionay Prosser 138 Resta ta Powndtionl Ravine 137 Bootoneping Rebate Differential Dependencies amd ‘able Genter 139 Inplations of Gonrtoe Eivencbmant 140 GonatveBrvencnt and Rebsinse 14h 8 Lewontin Bvidence (That There lst Any) 146 1s Foidnce note ot at Ics? 148 Tue Maal are to Ter There 182 [NaratveAccumtrond Theory ar Montage 158 IIL Reductionismis) in Practice 159 9 Complesty and Orgsizstion 179 educinion and he Anais of Complex Stems 179 Comptes 181 ocation Comply, end Organization 136 Copley ad he Loaization of incon 190 10 The Ontology of Complex Systeme: Levels of Organization, Perspectives and (Gass Tickets 195 Rebetnrsand Rely 198 eves of Orgeicaton 201 orpeatues A Pralinary Characterisation 227 (Coal hikes 297 11 Reductive planation: A Fusetionl Account 247 “Two Kinds of Rasionl Reconstruction 243 Scena vrs InterLavd Reductions 245 eel of Organtaton alte Co Foc and Development of inter awed Theor 289 “i Views of planation, Major Factors and Mechanism ‘ers La and Decne Completa 255 eel of Orgone and splay Cote ond Bente 28 Hntieatory Hypotbeses as Tels isthe Search for splints 266. Append: Mojctons Appropriate to « Cos Bent Veson ‘of alan’ Accont of Explanavn 270iv + Comes 12 meryence as Non-Agrepaiviy and the Biases of Redocionisns 274 Raducom and Energencs 274 Arsreetiiy 277 Prsprctua, Contextual and Repesnaiona Complex itt Out So Sinple as Thal” 287 Adeputon 1 Pi and Course Grind Ermer erin! Paradoss fora Foal Acct of Asgresioy 296: Aasreatiy and Dincinaly 301 ‘Aurea a5. Hears or Euan Decompostions, and ‘Our Gonepisof Natal Kinds 303 Reduced Bases Revie 308 IV. Engincesing an Evolutionary View of Sience 313 13_Epilogue:On the Softening ofthe Hard Sciences 319 From Sinmu-Man Redhcionit 0 Lover of Camps 322 Mosinee Stte-of the fot Tore Plysicr 324 Hidden Repance and Reelin Raf he Mil Applied Sece "127 “Pare” vers Appi Scinc, and What Difrence Sod Make? 338 Horttry lowe 339 Appendix A. Inpoctant Properties of Heuristics 345 Appendix. Common Reductions Heusinics 347 Appenulx ©. Gosary of Key Concept and Assumptions 353, Appendix D. A Panoply of LaPacean and Tecisian Demons 361 Notes 364 Bibliography 405 Credits 430 Index 435, Figures and Tables Frontispiece: Carton by Spey Haris Figure 6 Figure 62. Figure 63. gure 64, igure 65. Figue 66 igure 7. gure 9, gue 92, Crossingovee ad recombintion beween homo our ehromoromes 108 Linkage map of actoc in the X chromosome and thei coresponding bands in the physical alvary and chromosome 112 Cale nomtinear mode! wit distances proportional torscombintion frequencies 116 [elation between combination feqnency and map distance 118 ‘Maller consrvetion ofthe map ofthe se Factors ‘sing Cases method 122 “Two-dimensional map constructed acoring to Cae’ prnepes using Male data ansforred according othe Haldane mapping fonction 124 "Network with batt node and entrenched by ale tiple downsream consequences 143 Descriptive simplicity and complexity 183 "Nese decomposabily and itcacsional complenty 18Sso» Pures an Taber pure 10.4, igre 102. igure 11 igure 112. igue 313. Figure 2 igre 122, Figure 123. Figuce 124, iguce 13.1, Table 24, “Table 122, “Table 123, ‘Waveform presentation of composition Ives of onpnigation i diferent coneivable welds 224 (Complex edetngs of evel and pespecives 252 Dillon scouts of theory eduction 246 Function of sila end dferences in cee sional redetion 248 ‘Use of denis in the co-evolution of concepts inthe evelopment ofan inter level theory of the operation bf eau mechuniem 253 Conditions of aggrepatviyilested with Weald linear urbouaded amples 282 Varies f partial aggregativiy ilsrated with ‘amplifier nly within a bouaded range 285 Composition of wo allele at ro locus genotype from gamees and production of new gametes va independent asorment ot rcombinsin 29 Patterns of environmental gain 298 Geometticalchromophotograph ofthe movements ‘evacued in taking highamp 330, Bramples of fale of apreptvty 278 avionmentl grain or diferent niche dimmsons, ‘organisms, and size sales 300 Sufcen dimeasionaliy fr peedition of eon seaiepelocar 302 Re-Engincering Philosophy for Limited BeingsIntroduction,charter one Myths of LaPlacean Omniscience Why et tha admis who cab to eo the truth want to prtond {tht ty ave abeaybad? What are they pa for, amy? ‘The Gehavoral paradox is found throoghour academia, but i nowhere stronger than inthe scenes. We prech with pide tha se cece ie faible and tanaleconasting it with celigin and other ‘dogmas, And we shoud. But we hide with enbarasent papers tat renderer shown te rome hy later wrk (Try pet ene With such pape) We commonly don't repor negate teal Bors sre okay ony ithey are sonteone else o Belong fo pie generations. Les eefective scien each undereadasts ony hore pars of thee Science thar ae "established fc," deferring unl graduate schoo ay thing dpe or ender active invention. Thee same inserts then complain dat begining graduate stants dont sem 4 notice wes somethings wrong or mssng, or how to ind questions wort researching Be ha ayone vied to teach this sll? We poy cle trate forzutous discovery, as if to convince humanists and arts hat scene tno ia cent liberal ar, et dicots tobe elebraed | those that requtedm prepared mind aad laboratory. We oght to cle bate the wellcaied research plan even if fall, and not when slr locket ws suceed without preparation. We should thereby er force what cur student ca do op them owed ‘Mary ofthe contractions emere from oar ieazations of rlence tnd pilorophical views that see Knowledge only in certsay. Even when thee viewpoints have been given ap expby, thir rede re4 toodtion rmsing ade de nes in overview inthe ise dice shoe chap fers othe reso he book I claborte en ltemative pte “The focas on truth in andentandable. The sciences are the bes - proach chat can provide bath better deception of nr ntres and oxmative guidance base on realitie memarey of our serge and limitations. No current phitosophy of science dosti fully, thogh in creasing nner are moving in st diction. A philosopy of ence forrea people means real sets el engines histotans or socio logit of el scence and engineering, snd rl philosophers interosed Im how any ofthe preceding people wor, think about the practice, ‘hin abou the atural worlds weal shat, ad think sboue what follows eflectively and reexively fam hese fs ‘This view invokes specs of realism, though nox ofthe ws sort ef cureene scentfe pracice sta laminates historical eases beter than other approaches, and that implications fr how to do phos ‘opty leneither has we seks the stark simples of current found "onal theories. This pilosopy mus be based rom top to bottom ‘on hecite principe of reasoning and pace but tala seks 2 fall6 + toi sccunting of other things in our richly po erecting {he for approaces we have sought athe “This proj ina philosophy for cesrysyten Seve wor or the in betwee Ge the oispece) and for satl colon fof ealy supporting and increasingly bet to - scence and tec ology. Pace Ovi this scatlogy foe the wo, “a rainforest. The "piecewise spprovinatons” ofthe ook tei woidale: we are, rus bey and can be cain four science and mach of our practi rou eli, like ov practice and ever our inferential consistency, mus piecemeal nd sal ated with loca rather than a pobal fret, We eet God and we don’ have a Godi-ay view ofthe word {thi picemeal word, we dot even fave a gd" ee view) Bt tence fie part ofthe ee only half tuts ro r-enginer she whole of philosophy in x hsman image i till ambiowly gba Uow' dal sis sketch how to do for significant pars of philosophy Of seience and closely connected aeas of seience. This apres ne honomena snd revoneepalins old i ways tha i move naturally With how we proces. [hope tha others ind hee est sufi Sontetve wo tse, oxen, seladd othe tol describe ere to employ them cewher “Retnginesng” appears in the ile as verb thie view of sence nd nature contracted lel 6 wi all ratve at) by aking, ‘odin, and rameing what i a had, and employing itn new Content thus reengineering, Re-eagincrng culties is what makes ur cumelatine cultures posible. Abd any eginering project tos be responsive tora! world constait, has realism, Ov 33 Cognitive, and cultural ways of Being are noes real han the es the toi and all oeter leave tei nck Bat puting ou Feet. ry inthe earl worfd woe coough, Narra sient ave long prileged the “more fandamental” ens of ther seins hieachy, hd pure sence eve applied sping ba (rite) al Knowle ‘ge Howe fom thei end ofthe investi enterprise "Noc or Reengineering lo works as an adetve and has despee methodological role. Theorists aud methodoloist ofthe pure xine fave much to lean about tet wn dcplines from engineering and the stay of practice, and from evolutionary biology, the moe Fandsx mental ofall eJenginveriag dplines. Our cognitive capabilites and Tenens are no fess engined and engineered than our Blog? ind techulogy, both collections of layered Mage and exaptations. We must now wha canbe laraed from ths fact about ouales to beter frm science of any roe. Social Natares Philosophers wre once deaf to ims that cognitive scenes, ev tionary biology, aid ioe of practice were cently amportan 0 ot ‘1m mesodology tn those days, pycholgy led ony to *prycholo- tim” the study Of hseory only encouraged! comming te "genetic fate” snd "wcology” seemed worse than socialism. Kaowledge atieral we mind independent an times, ne minds were inva tn both biological and toca. Today noch opine seem quan rich phlosopers Sad thenseves incressingly eat, cxclng the ‘rans in defence of Reson. We show oar owe diiplinery ase and force them on oes the various “philosophies of X"ofen vem robe more shou arguments item to philosophy shan “ol” aoyching uch of our brosdee humans ftlectaal common, the soci rooeednew of asin taken for grated, the real word see 5 2 construction, and reason i ut achat of interests, Bat hi ours tls swings to far. How can we bridge these divergent perspectives? Text to repsebologie, sociale and re-embed usin the word, sehere we rao about tat world a el about ow we interet toh ad role pom . Ca ce sil be recognizably plosophical ‘eile ling the sbyects of "philosophies of shine trough mach tone clearly and inpite new plilosopis, rather than merely x Porting our ame old "pbilocphial” dspuse fo these nw teitorst “Contrary to sone pilsophicl views, "empire contingencies” ace onc picomealrearangeneee of existing adaptations or exes one and they encourage 0 do likes with whatever we 1, always ea than py Adding alternatives or edundancy asi sfc called) al ways increseseaility, as von Neumano (1956) argued ia is lic paper on building rcable automata with unrcable components. I= Creag lib cough parallel cognition ia fundamental prin tiple of organic desig and reliably engineering generally. Tt works for theories 5 wel asi does for polyp, primary metabols, ped stor avoidance, mzroprocasor architecture, Apllo moo shots et onstruction and che rrete of ies ‘Suppose we start, then, with 2 Babylonian (or Byzantine?) strc ‘ea muy connected, poorly ordered scene theory having 0 rincpes singled out as axioms containing many different ways of et ‘ing t0 @ gten coclsion and, bens of is high degrse of ream ancy elavly sot paths tc (oe Feynman, 1967, p47} let ithe redesigned by a Encidean Inthe name of egaee the Enciean vw look fora small numberof rlaivelypoweetlasurptons fom ‘which he est maybe derived Ins dong he williminate redundant "sumptions, The ot effect wil be ofa: (2) Wit smaller number ‘of asumprions taken as axioms, che mean number of ses in 2 deriv ‘on wl crest, and ean do so exponent. Thisinereased length of section wl decrease reliably along any path to the eoneason 2) ‘Alternative or parallel ways of geting to iver concasion wll besub- stanly deceased at redundaot assumptions are remove, a thie ‘Kress in "pralltion” wil lio decrease the foal elit of the ‘oncuton, "ach ofthese changes inceass the uneelabity of the strc and both of them operating opeter proce a amolative effect rors ate poste as have suppose, Not nly the peo o file of the seratore pester afer t as been Eacldcaizd, br the conse- ‘quences of flare became more severe: with les redundancy, the fo Robusto Reiniiy and Ovenceeminaton - SI file of ay piven component assumption i key to infirm a large prt of the szctere I wl elaborate om this point shor. Reha not br tied before now (bse Gymour, 1980} bona ofthe drs tance ofthe Cartesian Easidean perspective and becuse fa key at- fac of Sesto age Foonal modes of theorecl rates characteristic tare wich the assumption ha the stuctures contain ao inconsistencies. As or ‘native ea this ine bute description of real iene coi {inoguate. Motor all scene theories with which Iam famiiar ‘onain paredoxes snd inconsistencies, ether beeween theoretical a Snptons or between setmptions and dita im some combination [Usa there could be resale one knew which of several eminent Plnunbleasumpsons to give up, but each appears ave song. sup Pot othe sasumptions-and the inonssences—rerain) This fe Ture of sentie theories has not unl ow (withthe development of on-monotone loi) been node, becnse ofthe fer of total eo Tape. In fis orde log, anything whatsoever follows from a conte: tiesiony vo stem tha contain conteadtons ate eared at ces Bute otal collapse sugested by retonder ogi oe by highly Ea- clideansractres wih Iie redendaney) sens not tobe characteristic bof scene tore. lnconsitences are walled off or eneapslaed and {donot appt to alec the theory other han very Toclly for things ‘ery clo to ad sangly dependent on one ofthe concn assump ‘ons, Robustness provides a possible explanation, pesaps the bes planation, fr this phenomenon, ‘When an inconsistency curs tests tht depend on one o more af the eoradctory asumption are compromised. This infin sta sive pases toting tha depend on these ress, and eo theo ical deta ike # sting of dominoes until we each something that has independent sapore. The independent suppor ofan assump tion ssi andthe collapse propagates no farther, all deducve ‘ov inferential pats leading fom = comtradicion pass ough bust ‘esl the callapae ie bounded within them, and he inconsistencies re tlle of from the rest of the network For each robust ret, one of Ite mes of spor x destroyed; bu as others, and therefore the Collapse goes no farther Whether his is the oni sani by hich this woetion of contradiction ould be accomplished, donot know, but it iva posible way, and scicateconstrct do appt to bave the reste abuse (am not aac if anyone hae id to fonnalize oF to simulate this, though Scare Kalfinan’s work on *otcing ac52 + Problem Sling Sete for Complex Sptens tures” in binary, Boolean switching networks seems leary relevant. In Kaul, 197, these models are developed and applied o gene con” tool networks) Robustness, Testability, and the Nature of Theoretieal Terms Anoter are in which robust involved ie Clark Giymour c= une of testing and evident relation in theories, Glymour argues ‘ystenatially that pats ofa theoreti srvtare an be an are ed to ts other pat ofthe theory, and even themselves. (His same for this *hoottapping.”) This rong cequres the determination of ‘ales for quaies ofthe dheory in ore than one way fhe dt re cone wih the theory, the tee die comput ‘ions es ae fst a tale exgetinent tr i tbe vale thy ‘cermin forthe computed unsy bathe dat ae ncnsisetwith the thy the diferent compton ofthe same say may ie ‘iene rts Farther and te para wha ante 7 tay becomputl fem ens of ita datas one Va dtsd one stectre a cry. (lymou, 1980, 113) {Gymour argues ltr (p. 139-140) tht the eiferent alice of idence o different hyphens ofthe thoory egucs teu of varity of pe of evidence to txt the diferent component hypotheses of the theory. Commenting oe the posse that one enuf 0 leat the hypothesis whose incorretes is producing an eroncous determina ‘Son of quantity, worm misocning the chs ofthe eon he sa ‘he only mean avaiable fo gun gun sch eon to hare awe sy of tides wth s an hypotheses pose re tested ‘any fee way posse, What sks coe nay of eng re ‘ly dllrnt om ater it he hypothe ed noe compet ‘Sonate diferent fn he pone ede ee compurton Part tf what makes one ee of eis recta dileet fom soe ice ene et sone esi po om he hat no pe ‘blr the cond th in th ean theresa deren (he pit of computed aloe rt guattn 140 A given set of dats and he strate ofthe theory permit a tet ofa Iypothesis (orth conjunction of = group of hypocess sand only ‘hey permie determination of al dhe values ache tested ent ia suck a ‘vay that contradictory determinations ofa leet one ofthese vale ‘could res (inthe sent that ts no anally edd ou) This Robust Reliab, nd Ovedetemination + $3 gees more than one way of geting at that vale (se Glymour, 1980, 307) Topuritin the langage ofthis bok, nly robust hypotheses ‘rezestable Furthermore, a theory in which mos components are mule ply connected ia theory whone fue ate restive reclylcali abl Not ony do errors no propagate far, but we an find hee source ‘ikl and evaluate the damage end whats requzed fran adequate {eplacement If ths sounds ke = design policy for an automobile, fo Towed to facilitate cay diagnostic vice and repat Tansy only that there i no reson why oar scentfc theories shoal be ls well signed thn oa othe rift “The sume iss arse in a diferen way in Campbells discussions (Camps and Fake, 1953; Campbel 1969s, 1969b, 19775 Cok and Camptell, 197) of single or deinional vemos multiple operation alu, Deitional operational ithe view that philosophers know 8 operational tha the meaning of theoretical terms eo be defined ‘stems ofthe experimental operations wsed in measving tht theore- ‘al quantity. Mulple menne of dterminngsoch a quantity repeat ‘patsdox fo his view an impossibly, since dhe means i definitive fof the quant, and mulple means means rtp quantities. Com bes muliplecperaionaliom isnot operation a ali this sense Ia more wolerant and elec empiricism or be os the ulpleop- ‘caso a contngenyasecated with the thing measited. Bring con ‘ingentyastocated they cannot have 2 dfnitinal elation to con sequent there io acer to accepting that one (robust guantty has ‘umber of diferent opertione to yet ti cach to perfec 0 have 4 Gfssonal role bo togeer rangultng to give a more acute tra complete pice than would be posible fom any one of them alone: Campbells atack on dfsiionl operational springs naturally from hs flitlism and is critical reali. Boek of thee forbid simple definitional connection bewean theoetcal onsets and ‘menourement operations: nc the et meskes in defaitiona perionalsn a 2 dei ‘Som of fs leprae ws tha alowed fora way of er prong these pepe aren ofthe mpeeton ose Song nstonents ands proteypie aif ampoving them {eampbe 1965u p39) Fors cel, the conmation between any measurement and the thing ‘easced voles an oft long and indirect ens chan, each ik at+ role Solving States for Complex Ste ‘hich sft and ne by ther hcoeial parameters The aim ie ‘make the real nsenstive to orto control these cal leant but semantically eleva intend ik ‘What the cei dos in practice i dhe iantramet so a0 in nea compensate fete rng far elevate, Thay {alrncrcer ala ight as poi o minimize rit to Fmd bearings mini esl ay be nel ns aed {rd dened om: Remote face ar ep ec tey di tem at Uy ad the mek sd song cen ces iat fen mee rail. Bu hse ar prc sation rege on ‘tee grou simple fp 14-15) The very same indrctness and flibility of measurement that rle ut definitional inks make advantageous email inks ‘hive ony ote nid sos ase which to vale ores see ave no een tceck hem pint hoy of th ie ‘am of wo heal paramcers mu b osc by pee ee ‘tons of each Inc eda get ena regi ed ‘when ich rial parameter xem nae more wy eich Toe bong indent spose of the ey, a athe ert false components re concer Ti el pee an be ‘eared tiple operon (p15) Agta alti then, suppose ne did have oly one mesa of access toa given quantiy, Without another means of acces, ven if this means of access were not made definitional, statements abou the value Of chat variable would not he independenty tele fective they ‘would bea if defined by dat means of aces, and sine the vaihle tras aot connected tthe theory in anyother way would by aaa bservable fit whed: anything could do woud be done more d- realy by operational variable i chen, ia Margenas' ae phat, peninsular concept (1950, p. 87), bridge tha eas to nowhere, Philosophers often misleadingly lump thi "peninslrty” and the existence of extra axioms permiting mutpe derivations together ax fedundancy. The implication i tat one shouldbe equal isaproving ‘ofboth. Presumably, the focs on eros syste leads ploopbers to repad partly dential paths (he paths from 3 peinela concept ‘nd from ts “operational yi" tony consequcce acs fom tithe) and alerative independeot path (obuetnes,bootrapiy ‘or tangulton) a8 equivalent because they are seen a equally dis oboe, Relisiliy and Overdatermiation - 55 pattable if nei desing with sytem ia which rors ar posible Buri erroce ace pone the te kind of edandancy can increase the relly ofthe conclusion the former cannot. ‘Aimar interest in concept with ule connections and disdain {or the trvialy seat, singly oc pootly connected concept i to be Found in Hilary Putnam's (1982) elie paper "The Analytic aed the Synthetic” Becnse theo dfnisions are multiply connected lw clot concep, whose meaning i determined by this mtipicy of onnections, Putnam ets the view that ack denims are tpl tie or analytic. Thou for Panam tis theoretical eonnesins rather than operational onen, which are important, hese emphases he portance of «mils of hems awl conte cnsaednot by 2 bu propia ticigpesl general mms [ester concen nd erm” bot Spa ane of aw ht 8 were deerie teeny of the cone ‘he compe “ena ance! sample tse 9 er anya pay ee many oles aed hs awe a ifn ols ‘inti ein let oily wan spe at ‘ow ofthe tern highly developed ies at cle come luton shoul alae Be srpeior af the cat that «Pile rho auc rn sw ne cong oye. The ean at Cc ton aac eltonahip tween acre thats cay one aw can be stoned without dein eet of "he acer cone note p37) Statements that are analytic are 0 for Pnam because they ate singly connected, noe malty connected, and thos via: “Tha icant “hunt” f we decide lays to prose the nw "A ach lore una braun bcd ae + Kind fete cls ayant tr dn Ms sere They ate roped ‘ther by snoring all spect eee a sgl eal oe One ay mot [ong oS any oe] abe sach (384) Thus he coburn of concep oli mukplecoonecedacat within hoor tracre and @hroogh expernental peocedares) 10 ‘observational rater implications for vatety of ses com ‘ected with choot etiog and change, with the eliablity aed stably ‘fas an the component prea theory, withthe discovery ado zation fern when thy faite analyte ynthetedintion, and ‘Stsouns ofthe meaning of theoretic concep But thse asus have56 + Prolew Solving Strate for Complex Ste foci on roburtnes in exning theortical structures. Ii alo im ‘ore in dncovery and inthe goterstion of new theoreicl sre, Robustnes, Redundancy, and Discovery For the complex systems encountered in evotonary biology andthe socialsciences, ici otenuneear what i fandamental or escort. ‘One is faced with a weakth of parcalyconfcing, partly compe. meeary models, reglares, contrat and data swith no ea ae ‘of prot for which wo trust and where to start In thi case pari lay, process of validation often shade ota procs of covery since both involve winnowing ofthe generalizable and the reliable from the special and arcfacual- Here wo rousinse ca be of wt, [Richard Levins mjgyets in the posnge that intoduced et th em ‘es the mt exe oil avail smn. These ‘oom for dohtss to whether re spent cacl f smoe fro the dei of he plying ssn. Thi role dows mot ‘acne morefamilar md ich athe onrapiel my whee ‘tno ha conto te tp tps any nay ete ‘toc onthe map ccrespon line tee ey, ele srry an rnp ew of the ap wl ny sho th ee tthe paper on which pe. Bor he mata ode of Population ily er at aways bau when wee ng fight poo "Therese twng 19 the se poem wth cereale ‘ive mosey ich wit flere snplietions Sue wh como lope serpin The, hese ny dite trie ste ‘hone, edt narra we have what wc cll se eres thorsif of he ta of the model ene our the in testo of independent ee enn 1965 p23) evins is making hes a ofthe philosopher’ criterion of age teuth a6 tae in all possible world. He views robusrese anal 48 “sampling from a sper of posible models (Levin 1968, p 7). Since tne cannot be sre thatthe sampled models ae representative ofthe Space, ne gets no guarantce of logical tah bat, ether, wri lle Ba effect) tool fr discovering empl tut chat ae ae tay Fe ofthe deal ofthe various pee modes Teva aks about te robustness of theorems or phenomina or eon sequences of the models rather than abo the bares ofthe mos thamslves, This i necesary, given his view shat any single mods snakes amber of araftcal nd therefore non-obus) atoms Robusnes,Reliniliy, and Oveetermiation + 57 Asory wold presimably be a consepeal structure in which many oF tos of the fndamenal corm or asora ae relatively rob 8 soggestl by Levin” statement, "A theory isa clster of model, to fee with thc cous consequences” (p.7 If el ous over a ange of parameter ales ina given model ‘rover varity of model making diferent assumptions this gives ws Some independence of knowlege ofthe exact stracare ad parater values ofthe sytem under dy: 2 prediction of his esl wil emai Tove undes a varies of sch conditions and parameter vale. This = ptclarly important in scene ares where st may be dul de ermine she parameter values and condiions exactly “Robust theorem can tus provide more tratwrthy bai for gn craton ofthe model or tbeory ad, though tee independence of ‘many exact etal sounder bal for predictions frm i Thcory ge {alation ian important component of seni change, and dhs of enti dscovery. tar robusnas ea guide for discovering tastworthy eet and _gsealtation of theory, and dinnguhing them from artifact ofp ticular modest eps us odstinguish sign from aie pereption meray. Campbells furnished with many exarple of he rae Fobusnes and paren matching it veal ception ad its analogies, fonat and sada, In an euly pape, he described how the pattern and the redundancy in a randomly pled radar signal bounced off Venus fave anew and more accurate measurement ofthe distance to that ‘let (Campball, 1956), “he ater visual sete pictures of Mars adits satelite Deimos have provided an even moe luinaing example, again dxeribed by Camp Tall (1977) in the unpubled Willa Jams Laces (eur 4, Pp 9-90), The now sandaed procedures of image enhancement involve ‘combing umber of images in which the nose, being radon ver ‘get bt the signal, weak though sual present, ads in itensty tnt sands ot The pic pringple the sme one repented x ‘kin von Neumann's (1956) ase of "majority organs” to ier out ctor the combination of pallor redundant signals witha threshold, fp which fis assumed tha the signal beng lily represen, ill ‘uly exsed threshold and he counted and whe noise being random, sual lal below eheaold and be lost. Theres an art design the edndaey so ik up he signal ano sting the dresbo 50 tt lowe the noe. It ps, of cous, fone knows what he ooking forte the cave of television camera focured on Mas, Deimos was58 + Problem Solving Strats fr Complex Syne ‘moving ret ander bung twice inthe same ple toa appco rately fas were the ste fexatesof Mars}—ws consequently ers ‘tas ise, Bur because he cents involved knew that Deimos wat ther they were able to fx the ine enhancement program eo find By changing the threshold so thar Deimos and some nose ees a8 signal (probably smeared}changng the srpling rte or the inca ti ace (sopping Demon atthe elev same plc fo oF more times) or inteucing the right kind of spatiorerporal orcation fe tio (eo track Deimos periodic moves around Mrs} was posible wo restore Deimos othe pcrres agin Dire runing ofthe ee ers Gnd ferent redundancies n he signal were exploited to rig tte ‘Maran moving Dinos lato clear foc, ‘We can see excly analogous phenomena in vison if we look at « moving fa ot aeplane propeller, We cam look through it ering ‘ut at noite) tos something behind ie. Lowering our threshold, we «an attend othe propel disk asa eoloced eranparet (cid) ob isc. Grossspaie vaion in fckerfision fequeney. indicates Aierent sampling rats, which ae keyed to the adaptive segirements ‘ofthe onganim (ee Winsac, 19803, p. 282°297}. The various phe omens asocised with pendie stroboscopic lamination (apparent fering and slow rtaion ofa zap spinning obj) vole dete Yion of a lagged eoreaio. Hee, too, dilleent eninge psk out Aileen aspect of or ent in he environment This involves a use of ‘iferentheuritic, a mater Leta to later quoted Glymoue (1980) earlier onthe importance of geting the same answer forthe value oF quantities compute in two diferent ‘ays What if these compurtions or determinations do not age? The est is mt alvayscssstous inde, when such mistatshes happen ina aufcnlysroctred sation, they can be very productive “Ths situation could show tat we were wrong in asuming tat We vere detecting or determining the same quanty, however (as Camp ball, 1966, was the fst to point out) if we assome chat we ae deter mining the some quanty Bue “through plas dacky” the mismatch ‘an provide an almost magical opporanity for discovery, Given per. ‘eer abservatons of shingavekvow-not- aha, sing experimental a paras with biaseswe-may-notnderstand, we can achieve Both @ beter undessanding ofthe object stb, after aly that one hig hose propecties can prodace thee dvergine els in thee detectors} and ofthe experimental apparatus (which are, afer all thee pieces hat canbe affected eh iverpetly bythe hing). The conteaint producing the information hee the Meticaton of Robustness Relay, and Oveneeemintion « 59 the objet of the two of more detector, IF wo putivly identical things are indeed ides, then any property of ne must bea property ofthe other, We must reseve any apparent diferences ther by iin ‘sp the deniaton or losting the diffesnces no nthe thing el bur inthe inaction ofthe thing with diferent meaning ist rent, And thsi where we lean about the measring instruments “Hiaving then aoqired a bater knowledge ofthe ases ofthe meaning Insamens, e are a beer position not only 20 explain he cite exces bat as, in height of them, co give a newly ened etinate of the peopery ofthe thing tel. Thit proce, «kind of neans-nd™ analysis [Winsaet, 1976 Simon, 1996), has enough stractare to work in any given ease only beens ofthe enormous amount of Background owl ofthe hing and the intument that webring fo thesis tion, What we ca let in ters of localizing the source ofthe die. rcs isin drs proportion to what we lend kw "This general sratey for using idntfeasons hasan importa sub casein reductive explanation, I have argued extensively (Wiest, 19762, pare I, 1976, 1979) tha the main reason forthe productive ss of eductive explanation sha inter level eaieaios nme sey provides wealth of new hyposhess cach propery ofthe ety a6 ow at the ler level man es property of at known a the Per level and converey usally very few of these properties from the ‘other lee have heen predicated of the common objet. The impli tions ofthese predictions usually have fertile consequences at both levels, and even where the match is not exact, thee i often enough seeutare inthe suation to point toa rovsed idenieaton, sith he needed refinements. This desripion characterizes wll the history of ‘eri, bath inthe period ofthe localization of the gees on cheomo- Somes (1883 to 1920} and inthe al entiation f DNA a the ae etic material (1927 to 1953), Por ee etl pti see, fr example, Alle, 1978; Moore, 19723 Dard, 1974; Wimase,1992, nd Chapter 6 For the ltr pariod se Olby, 1974) Indeed, the overall effec ofthese onsidecations io suggest that the se of ido for she detection of for in structed situation may be one ofthe most powerflbaurs fics known and certainty one of the mos efecto generating sin ‘ic hypotheses ‘Alb sinicane inthe connection between robustness snd daconery is Campbells (1977) suguestion that things with ester emitaity (things whone boundaries are ware cbs) cug tobe laced are He ces suggestive suppor fom language development fo his thesis, ‘wich Quine’ (1960) ews alu tend to support. umpc hat abu.60 + ProbemSaling Sei for Complex Spates res could prove robe a impostat to in analysing aot oly what ie thscorered but ao the orden which things age discovered There i some evidence fron work with chien (Sein and Glen, 1979; Tabasco and Scio, 1997) that components uf aratvr that are ental 9 the narrative because they are integrated nt causal and its pmporve or intentional race are most ikl to be emebered and abstracted out to inelude in summates ofthe sry. Thi observa Son i sgessvely related both to Feynman's (1967, p47) sematk ‘qoced above, clting robustness o forgetting relationship in a mal "ply connected theory, and to Simon’ (1996) concep of blackboard ‘workspace, which s maintained been succniestempt 0 sole problem and in which che stroctre ofthe problem representation and foal wee ay be subtly changed through flee fongeting. These uggs other way in which rouse could affect covery proces ‘hough iferecal effects on lenring and forget. Robustness, Objectifcation, and Reais Robustness widely wd a a xteron fo the reality or rastworthi- nes ofthe thing tha i aid 0 be robust. The boundaries ofan od fat abject, such ara table, a dered in diferent sensory modalities (visually, actly, surly, oll, oughly coincide, making hem ro- ua thi timate the primary reason why we xeard peception of the objet a veil rater tha ory (ee Camp, 1958, 196). leis ere ilsion indeed that could spstemacally affecall of ox senses in thi consent manner. (Drag indaced hallucinations aad reams may involve mold expeence but fl to be consent through time for piven subject or across observes, thus ailing at higher level show appropriate robustness) ‘Ose concept of an obec i of something tha exemplifies 2 mi plist of properties within is boundaries, many of which change we ‘move sero is boundary. The idea of ene dinesionl ojo i ontadicion im term and ually tens ovt tobe adage defi ‘ona legal ot theoretical ton. In appealing eo the robustness of boundaries as a exitesion for objeto, wea appealing to thie na Uplicy’ of peoperies (diterne proper Stored in diferent ways) td his to tne honored philosophical naion af bjethood ‘Camp (1958) has proposed the wse of the coincidence of bound- aie under diferent mente of detection a a methodological erin foc recognizing ene suc associa groups oe example, ina study of Robustness, Reliaty and Ovrdcurmination = 61 factors affecting the reproductive cycles of women in cllge dormito- ties McClintock (1971 and personal commision) found thatthe inially randomly timed and diferentes cycles of 135 women be- came, afer several months, syocbronized into 17 groups, each ox InsingSypcronousl ia phase and with 3 eomnon ped. The men ‘bats ofthese groups tured outro be thse who span she most te together as detennined by sociological metus. After the ost of sya ‘eon, group membership of an individual could be determined either fram information above ber reproductive cycle or fom 2 socogrars representing he esuency of soll interaction with oer individual. ‘These groups are thas mukeply detectable. This illustrates the pos that there is nothing scr about wing pecepial rite in indiduaing ‘tes, The products of any scene detection procedure including ‘rocedres dean from diffeene cences, can do a well a Campbell Ihe gnosis of miles pyc enti, he ound fhe ‘hy are mp coniomed, ith many ce al ofthe age prs. (kc cotonnp ech ai Po te ore teal” ee, tow mobs of ble ways conning the bowser probly eld ‘oe one knowledge expands he me grote mare we at al ‘Bie: “coos cur when connate ated ound lehing, when oui dagoosed by one mest fal to sow op by ter expected che (988,09. 25-28), sions can aie in connection with robustness ina wai of ws ‘Campbals remark points o one important way: Where expectations se derived from one boundary, or een mor, the coincidence of ser ral boundaries leans to pedi, astume o expec that oter re ‘ane indvdosting boundaries wil coincide, Pete mun coramon, ‘ven the redtioniam common today, ae sisson in which the wl. "ant eytm boundary i far mote inclsive than oe lel to expect From the coincidence of number of houndavisndvisting an object at lower level Sach factional loaization allces re found ine ‘ophysiology in gene, in evolutionary biology (withthe efeoay ‘ofthe sla gene atthe expene of the inva othe group ot ‘Wins, 1980, in psychology, and with methodological indi lism in the socialsciences nll thee case the peimary object of| Snajsis—be ita gene, a neuron, 2 neural act, or a indoral™emay ‘wall be robust, but high degree of enitatvty Teas us o hang 100 ‘any boundaries and explanations ont Wher this foc en it ats(2 - Problem Solin Sentai oe Compe Se lowe lee, eduction and robusnes conic to kad sto regard the highecieve stems as epiphenomenal: Anode Kind of ilson— | thedlason hat sh entity x robut—can ocr when the various mans ‘of detection sapposed 1 be Independent are ot (This deans fr thernhe final xetion ofthis chaper,| Another kindof ilusion or pa ‘ox arises parcclarly for fnetionlly organiaed spt, Thi Sion occurs When sytem has robust Dourdan, hot the diferent rien used to decompose it into pars produce radially diferent Toundaces. When the pare have litle enitativity camped to the syste, the hoists war cy tat the whole moze han the sum of the ‘are will have pester appeal In Chapter 8 T explore th kd of ase and i contequener for the temptation of antireditioni holism, on exueme cases, vilisns o- atlogeal deals, ‘Robustness sa ecerion forthe ealiy of entities, but i alo hax played and ean playa important olen the analy of properties teresingly, the distineson between primary and secondary quale, ‘whic hal a conral role in he philosophy of Galo, Dect, sod Tock, can be made it terms of business: mary guise ch a shape, Sure, and size—ae deeable in more than one sory ‘aly. Secondary quales such as coor, taste and soand—are tecable through only one. sense. think ie io accident chat sevententi-cetary philosophers chose to cegad primary quan at the only things that were “out therein objet thei erse modal tecabilty seemed orl ou the bing products of sensory inteacson ‘withthe weed By cota, the imation ofthe svondary gaits to {singe sensory modal scmednatuclly to sugges hatch were "in ‘sor subjective. Whatever the merits of the further seventh eur ie that he scondary goalies were tbe explained in terme ‘ofthe interaction ofa perceiver wth a word of objets with primary ‘uals, this explanation represents a nance ofan explanatory pr ‘ple tha is widely found in scence (hough seldom eve expire ‘anal the explanation ofthat whichis no robust terms tat tobi is robust or eher examples ee Wimest, 1976, pp. 243-249, Feynman, 1967, Paral the way in which Levin’ use of robustness dfs fom Feynman's robustness, oF the lack oft as aleo boon wed i coment ‘where we are wnsure about the stats of purported proper, argue {or ther verdict or arsiactuaiy, and thao ciscover the prope tien terms of which we shoud construct ou theories, This the oo posal ofthe now clase and widely od methodological paper of Robusoes Reliiiy and Ovrdserminson = 63 Camplall and Fiske (1959). Their converge validity sa fre of o> busts and thet ckerion of diserimizan valdy enn be read st am atte to guarantr that the invariance actos eet ethos and teats isnot dus to thi isensiiy to de variables under uy. Thy ‘mehod bias a common cause of lars of dacriminant vali, is kindof faire ofthe eequrement for robots that the diferent means of detection used ate actually independent, in thi ene case the method they share ithe gin ofthe eoreations among ais. ‘Campbll and Fiske pointcut that very few theoretical consrts (propoted theoretical properties or enti) in the social sinces have Sifeant degrees of convergent and diciminan vada, and they true tha hiss a major dilerence betwee the social and natal oF biologi seiences—a ference tha generates many ofthe probleme ofthe social sence, (Fora sere of papers which in ffs in that Pssonality variables at highly eoack dependent and thos ave very Hale or a robustness, see Shower, 19795, 1979, 19804). ‘While the natural and bolgieal sciences have many problems where simile complains ould be made (the importance of interaction fests fe conte dependence ea ky indzaorof sch problems) sceties in these areas fave been fortunate ving 2 lear lange nmber of ‘ass where the sytems, objects, and properties they stay cam be ef Feely slated and lean, so that neracions and contort ca be ignored, Robustness an Levels of Organization Baca of he mulls of connestions snd plicable descriptions robust properties remiss tend tobe (1) more cay detectable subject 0 sluson or aia (3) more explanatory Fut, ad () raictively riche hon nonrobus properties or ets. With his se of| properties i shouldbe sall wonder that we wae robustness a rte on foe ely should azo not be sarprising thatsince we view fe ‘ception (a evlutionryepstemlogis do) at an fient too for gh ‘ting information abo the worké—obusthess sould gure centrally in our analysis of perepeual hypotheses and hewisics. ily, since ready detectably, clave isensiviy 2 sion or ara, ade Pboatry and predictive futfuess are dese proper forthe ‘Components of seni here, we should not be surpied 0 dice that robustness important inthe dcnery abd decipion of he omens and in analysing the strate of siete theories(Gt » Prolem Sling Sates for Complex Stes ‘One of the most ubiquitous phenomena of nature is its tendency to «come in evels If the an of cence, o follow Plato, soca up mature Sts jin, den thee levee of organization mute its major vet inae, They have become so major, idee, hat our theories tend to follow thes levels andthe language of our theories comes in trata “Thich ed any linguistically incline phlosophr: wo forgo talk of| cure tall and to formulate problems—fr example, problens ofr Suction—in terms of analysing the reaton between theoreti vocals aries at diferent levels Bue our language, a8 Campbell (19740) ‘would are ius another (lei very important} oo in ou stage to apale and to adage to mature In Chapter 10 and ia Wineste (19762, pat I), Ipoled Camps extra for entiation co argue that entities a diferent level of organization ten to be mil con acted in terms ofthe canal elation prim wi ther eniie st thai own level, and tat dey, and the levels they comprise at igh robust. As result there ate good explanatory reasons for treating Aeren levels of organizations dyamialy, ontology, and eps temolgialy autonomous. There no coafct eee wit the aims of food eeductonist rience there i a gros deal to be learned about “per-evel phenomena at lowe levee of organization, but upper-level tees ae not “analyzed aay” inthe process Dau they emi 0- bt connected with othe appr level ents, andthe Behavior = caplained by upper-level varias Tose how tis isso, we ned another concept—that ofthe scent parameter, introduced by Levins (1956: ‘xs er way ealogy with vase ta ween eae ‘so pares ded ope lee. oc are ery mc owe ‘hon the nb prec the ove ee nd wih cng “he slice perumetn ay ai Fo the como of res of more led sole, ont rat theca on mc bre oud ‘Sat emporl varie, ptcine ofthe eoviomen,podacy of hey did thy way ofthe comebon to the ect he ee ‘emt. Thor cern anes a ice ps “The mice parancter a anyone ancomaton of wee level phenome Tee ss power and tity, bt io et soree of resin. The may tone natae of "pcelsy” ree frm ig facade either tempol vaso oe atch oe redacted ounce he ensue of seta slone Robustes,Reiaiy, and Oveermioaton + 6S ‘another the event variable opty, o wpe ‘Rte Than we art nmin, op. 428,423) A afcene parameters a parameter avaiable annex tha {her for mos purpose or merely forthe porposes at hand spaces the effect of signicat variations in lowerevel or ls sbtact rable {sual only for eran anges of he vals ofthese ails) ad ean ‘hs be subst fo eer nthe temp o xl simpler mode | ‘he upper-level phenome. ‘Levis clsme hat this notion isa natural consequence of the concept oflevels of phenome, sn thi is, ehogh t may relate degree | abstraction as well as to dece of auaregution. (The agement {give here applies only to levee yenerted by apaegation of loner level en ‘isto for upper-level ons} Upper! variables, which give a more ‘eoaregrined” description of the system, are much smaller in suber than the lower-level variables necessary to deserbe these ‘system, Ths these must be, for an given degre of resolution beeen Aisingishable sate descriptions, fr fewer distinguishable upper evel Stare dsrpion dan lowerdevel ones. The smaller numberof dis fibable perv sates etl that for any given dee of esol on, there mst he miny-one mappings betwee a lest sine lowes leyel and ‘upporievel sate deserpions with many” lowerlcrel earitie cases «reefnton oF {Censformation ofthe prablem to whikh ii applied If ansloration ‘eds an analytically acable, and therefore sucess, prolem, there ‘willbe endenyto act arth ew problem 0 which hess nom 80 Ion) capt the cress of he ld problem and us to argu ist the old problemi realy solved by the solution to the new proble “Ten ane tp fre, he new prblen may be put forward denn the proper formulation of the oil and ths it has replaced the ald in "mange tener pel invisle ince is now regarded ar a aie tio of theo problem” tht prsves the pr uf the earch raion fil emai “eonisont” that hal carer prevented sluton ofthe olem, Thin a "hidden revelton = more modes paradigm sie Imasjeecsding at none at all The philosopher Ludwig Witgensein (196) argued thats knd of phenomenon characteris ale flowing Ivor an th wie of eoncepts in general, We senate now Kinde | sppistin of ales gia domain ofinepetaton aod ths have ‘Seanomalas pheomenon tha befor tis ppl tthe new staan, Itlooks fre el choice ao what to aply she rl o 0 uta te ft appears if we had no othe hol “This kindof nv paradigm sit hae many of se propre Kuba (1970) acribes to paradigm shits in general except for tose conexed ‘with de expt ecogiion of revoatonary change. ee il rae that the aew paacigm care with i erative jadgents and dings ex Plante standard; but instad of arguing da this represen rejection ‘tthe ld padi, the rlucini lage hth the proper teeprettion ofthe od poten and theneythat thi wa *contaed in the old iw ll og” When is Kind of paradigm shift i secompaniod bythe aceptane of new formal model wl oa 2 bi f rer mplietion afer accompanied by the reifcation of the abstct syston to deine a kindof (Webern?) deal type, which stalked aboot as iit exited inthe eal wor. Ths thermody talk about ded ise or "va der Waals gases” denoting gases whose behavior fits the ‘Sea gas wand van der Wea equation of stat especie Blogs similarly lle about “Mendelian genes” "Mndelaing waits” "Lov \olera comuns” and "panmisi populations” —in eck cased ‘ting # sipped conformiy of = real-ward pster wah che abstat ‘ondtion ofthe model,roblem Song States for Complex Sens ‘While one may decry this kindof cation, he tendency odoin cares real and often ignored function of theoretical models Al ‘hough we somesime se tt est our models, far nore often We use ‘hem as partes to organize phenome and 9 claire as ing for oe Biting the model. Using the model asa pater matching t= ‘lates this way enormously simples the task of ioding ode inthe ‘st, bot also inodoce a Kn of nei or a8 Tver and Kake ‘eman [1374] woud ay an “anchoring” bi), which oppeses change in the sytrn, When she rely doo fi, we do nt row sway the rode! bur instead redescribe the sym: the popalation ino pat ict the gee isnot Mendel, the comity wot Lotks-Voler ‘The only problem with this activi i that if such pater marching risen for nin esting, ean ead advocates of the medal 0 be eve ia the model hasbeen confirmed, anders to accuse he ado ‘ate of ad hocery and of converting the model into @ "meaningless schema” or "oer tastlogy.” The dilfrcncebeeween thi kind of tty and el tet ofthe sue! that perm matching here ‘fen fn ate to determine the values ofthe parametere ofthe ‘model independently Vales are cho so chat dhe mode ts the data, Producing Kind of sophisticated curve icing, rather tha a eiimate tert ofthe model (Se Tribe [1972] excell dacassion of she rise ‘ofthe ssrmpions of eatonal decison theory ia attempt to make rae ‘wold decisions “A parle! kind of station can happen wher the paradigm ia ex perinatal yur eathe than a theoretical model, fan experimen ‘ster is highly success it cam become a nocmative paradigm For how a clas of sods shoudl te pursue. “Drosophila genesis” and "Tibolum ceology” mark of, nor only model onanism, but sets of proses for dying them and refered queso for consideration that were extended as paradignsforstodyiag ode organisms in other ‘Sustionebecase they represented ideal conceptions of how eo seay estes and ecology, rexpectivey. When these concrpions ate a ticked, they sce sped defense ofthe general methodolopal ap prose (ie, ei, Mert and MacCsoley, 1980) The bia introduced bere is one of overgenecazation—whethe ofthe limited model oof the experimental protocol and design o ofthe questions asks. oth of thre Kinds of promotion of therecal or experinental model co paradgn can reinforce the biases ofthe other problem tolvingtchniqse by hiding the need t concept the sates ot the formulation ofthe problem of anayuing i. They can defer for Hearn and dhe Say of Human Bebavor + 89 Jong ime the ntcing ot analyzing of quescons that were far more ob vis atthe srt of thi line of svetigtion. This phenomenon the Increasing entrenchment of theoretical or expeimentl paradigm —in art serves to explain why dieples ofan approsch are often fa ess Feb ap fr lene nethodologaly concious than the rginators of that approach. have atempted to model and to explore the conse gence of hi kindof entrenement na wary of cones blog ics evlstion and developmen, ia copaive development, and in ‘model of siete and cultural change (se Glassman and Wimsatt, 1984; interview in Callebsst, 1995, pp. 425-4295 Wimsatt, 1986s, 19993) “Two Strategies for Corecting Reutionist Biases "now of two general sategies for coretng forthe aise and bi set of problem solving bewsce. The fest ely general bu sub Jee to specie problems when applied wo redactions problem solving. The second can be rgardod a specifeappestion of he general ap proach to redone prablon solving, with an ee wo addressing the ‘Special problems ofa redctions approach, “The general approach what Campbell has alld “angulation,” ‘which Campbell and Fike (1959) icoeporated in their now classic “nulieiemulimethod® matric have cscsed the wai of ane tions and applications of thir method, which T call “robustcss snapein” in Chaps 4 By using 2 varey of diferent models, ap proaches, mean of detection, or of derration and comping there ful we can hope to detec snd correct forthe bias, special assump ‘on, and atlas of ny on approach Tt we have already son that thx approach dos not guarante uc cst. It 90 ita bearisic procedure. The models of group section dis lay a ingens variety of esimptone and approaches, but they all ‘hore biasing ssumpions in comston, assumptions whose hissing ects were not spprent before Wade's seview (1978), How can we pre ‘ent our ary of models and approaches ros bung biased samp? To this questo, dere i ho general answer, ut there isan answer de rived from the charac ofthe bien this spi ease. Recall that the efer of exch redacnoni bis to ignore or eo undesestinats the ‘ets of viable nthe eavirnment. Bt thi tached wally to the variables in question? Nowit sure meray because of where they arelocated. Ths bas would be removed for anyhing hat oul be0 + Proem Sing States fr Complex Sptme rong within the sptem, and chi com Be acomplihed merely by changing the boundaries of the system being investigated. Thus the Strategy for eiminating bios inthe description and anaes of groups ‘calles of individuals to build model in which the groups are ‘cet individual in anger aan in which they are pats and in ‘which we focus on modeling infergrouprlaons. (This satay is J Tiberately exploited in Winsat, 1981, nthe development of moves ‘of grup inberitnce, The bises ofthe redactions heursis wil ill “ppl, but becuse he ester boundaries have changed hey wil have dere flee Te comparison of intagoup wih nergroup models isthe tig comparion for testa the roburnss or aise of lowerleel aon assumptions for group processes. A compar able sategy shouldbe equally appropriate for analogous problems in the social eences. ‘Similar, gong down Tee is the right medicine for testing more hole made wich may gnoremicolevel deals, Genesis rep lary land ight) complain when higher-level optimization models pe Bod Ieitr one it sol to have = classification of the ways in which a roel an be fale moe in his conten, means ne of ro alterna tre thing: (1) mathematical model equation or et of equations together ath the inmerrctatons necessary to apply them in a given ones, (2) coma! model or poposed mechanism though which a bsomnenan or act af phenomena isto be explained, Often one will fave bath, bu the following comments apy roughly equally to ether. The following are ways in which a model canbe fale, and are ot ered roughly inter of iereasng serous except foe 6 and 7) 1 Amodel may be of only very los appicily, This isa way of being fale only ii more broadly ape. 2. A model may be an eatin whose conditions of applcbiey se neve found in nature point mass, he wes of contin ‘ous variable for population sie, ec) but which ha ange ‘tenet which itmay be more ls accuatly applied a 0 Approximation. 43. Adel may be icomplote—lenving ot one or more causally relevant arable, (Here it assumed tha the ncaded vanables fro caualy elvan, and ate son test oughly the manner esc)