Assignment

1.

You have a deck of cards arranged by suit, with cards within a suit arranged in ascending order
(Ace to King).

2.

Shuffle the deck repeatedly for 1 minute.

Query Which of the following procedures will bring you back to the original arrangement:
A.

Draw cards from the shuffled deck, arrange the cards by suit first, then for each suit place the
cards in ascending order.

B.

Draw cards from the shuffled deck, arrange the cards by suit and place them in ascending
order as you draw them.

Design an Experiment to answer the question. Include the experimental design, variables, and
metrics

Hierarchic Systems
a system that is composed of interrelated
subsystems, each of the latter being, in turn,
hierarchic in structure until we reach some
lowest level of elementary subsystem.
Simon (1962)

Significance/Emergent Properties

Scale of Observation

Mechanisms

Experimental Design
The plan of any information-gathering exercise where
variation is present, whether under the full control of
the experimenter or not.

Experimental Design
Questions
Types of Data Collection
Soil Property Trends

Monitoring

Modeling & Measurements

Land Use Trends

Comparisons
Manipulations
NRI Soil Monitoring Network

Model Building and Validation

Others Surveys, Assessments, Interviews,

Experimental Design
Questions
Types of Data Collection
Monitoring
Comparisons
Manipulations
Model Building and Validation
Others

Experimental Design
Questions
Types of Data Collection

Monitoring
Comparisons

Manipulations
Control

Model Building and Validation

Others

Fertilized

Control

Fertilized

Photo by R.T. Simpson

Experimental Design
Questions
Types of Data Collection
Monitoring
Comparisons

Loch Vale Watershed

Stream Gages
Weather Stations

Manipulations

Experimental Plots
Permanent Vegetation
Plots (20)

Model Building and Validation

Others

Data
Types of Data

Point estimates (population sizes, attributes, rates, etc)

Time Series

Spatial Estimates/Maps
Final
Monitoring
> 400 days

Number of Species Present (S)

Pre-Defaunation
Surveys
E2

Loch Vale Watershed

Stream Gages
Weather Stations

40

Experimental Plots
Permanent Vegetation
Plots (20)

E3
ST2

30

E1

20

10

40

80 120 160 200 240 280 320 360 400

Days

Final
Monitoring
> 400 days

Pre-Defaunation
Surveys

Number of Species Present (S)

E2

40

E3
ST2

30

E1

20

10

40

80 120 160 200 240 280 320 360 400

Days

Assignment
A Dynamic Model of the Achievement Gap
Colorados Best

John C. Moore1, Kathy Cochran1,2, Marisa Chelius1, and Jrene Rham3

University Experience

and Science Teaching Institute and 2Department of Educational Psychology, University of Northern Colorado, Greeley, CO 80639 USA
3Department of Educational Psychology, University of Montral, Montral, Quebec CANADA
Model Formulation

Let Ai represent the average level of achievement for population i, where Amax
represents the maximum level of achievement possible for all populations. The
level of achievement of any population is a combination of positive and negative
factors f(+,-); SES, crime rate, gender or racial prejudice, number of AP courses.
Overtime, these factors interact in the following manner:

An example of the Achievement Gap is shown below. In

Colorado, as elsewhere, there are significant differences in
science and mathematics performance among students from
difference ethnic groups as measured by state-wide
standardized assessments (Colorado Student Assessment
Program - CSAP).

An achievement profile of a population is

represented by achievement on the Y-axis and
time along the X-axis . The achievement
profile is characterized by a learning sill and
range. The learning sill is the level of
achievement, A, whereby dA/dt=0, and the
range is defined the point in time where dA/
dt=0.

f(+)

Achievement

Introduction
Our objectives are to present a dynamic systems model of
achievement that when used in a comparative manner for
individuals from different populations, would generate observed
differences in achievement, aka the Achievement Gap.

Rate

1Math

Sill dA/dt=0

f(-)
Range

f(+)

Achievement

f(-)

Achievement

Time

dA/dt = f(+) - f(-)

f(+)

CSAP 8th Grade Colorado Science Scores by Ethnicity, 2002

Achievement Gap

Achievement Gap

American Indian/Alaskan Native

Asian/Pacific Islander
Black (not Hispanic)
Hispanic
White (not Hispanic)

Dynamics of the Achievement Gap

Assumptions

40

f(-)

Type I
Gap

Type II
Gap

30

A.

20
10
0
Unsatisfactory

Partially Proficient

Proficient

Advanced

Proficient & Above

P
e
r
f
o
r
m
a
n
c
eR
a
n
k

CSAP 10th Grade Colorado Math Scores by Ethnicity, 2002

70

American Indian/Alaskan Native

Asian/Pacific Islander

60

Black (not Hispanic)

Hispanic

Percent of Students

Achievement

50

Rate

Percent of Students

60

Achievement

70

B.

White (not Hispanic)

50
40
30
20
10
0
Unsatisfactory

Partially Proficient

Proficient

Advanced

Proficient & Above

Putative reasons behind the achievement gap include:

Socio-economic status
Racial Prejudice
Cultural effects
Social Factors (e.g. Drug abuse, gang violence, etc)

In developing our model for achievement we applied the following

considerations proposed by ONeill et al. (1986) for any new
theory, model, or construct:
1) the model must be internally consistent,
2) the model must not be adopted simply because it was successful
in another field; a condition that is particularly relevant here
given or adaptation of the Theory of Island Biogeography,
3) the model must agree with known properties of learning and
achievement,
4) the model must be capable of testing new and testable
hypotheses.

There is a maximum level of achievement, Amax, that could be attained by a

population of learners.

The maximum level of achievement is hypothetical, unlikely to be obtained and is

dynamic. Given the formulation of our model for achievement, the likelihood of Ai=Amax
is remote. It is more likely that Ai < Amax, given the near certain presence of negative
factors and the near certainty that all positive factors would not be maximized We
further assume that Amax is dynamic, but the rate at which it changes is sufficiently
slow relative to student learning that we can assume that it is static. On the other
hand, it has the capacity to change dramatically as new advances and insights are made,
or if the foundations on which achievement are based become irrelevant.
Individuals have the same capacity to achievement.

This assumption states that any variation or differences observed in the achievement
within populations is due to the influence of external factors and not biological factors.
Another way of visualizing this assumption would be to assume that if individuals were
randomly drawn from a single population and then placed into respective populations
that would experience different external factors, any differences in achievement
between the two populations are assumed to have arisen from the direct and indirect
affects of the factors on the individuals in the population. Reviews of the literature on
the roles of gender and ethnicity and achievement and cognitive performance support
this assumption (Eisenberg et al. , 1996)
If there are differences in the capacity to achieve among individuals, they are
independent of the factors at play and variation in the capacity to achieve is the same
for all populations.
C.

The assessments of achievement are unbiased.

This assumption asserts that the assessment is unbiased with respect to the factors
under consideration in the model. Any problems with the assessment instrument affect
each population equally. In practice, this assumption is problematic as no assessment is
without bias.

Acknowledgements
This work was supported in part by grants from the National Science Foundation and the U.S.
Department of Education. Special thanks to the faculty and fellows of the Center for Learning and
Teaching in the West (CLT West).

Alow SES

AHigh SES

Achievement

Time

Achievement Gap

Time

The achievement gap can be defined in two distinct ways. The first is defined as the difference between any population Ai and Amax. The second and more
operational definition defines the achievement gap as the difference in achievement, Ai, between two populations of learners, where ij, measured at any
time, Ti. This definition allows for at least two distinct types of achievement gaps.
A Type I gap occurs when the sill of achievement profiles for the different populations are the same, but the ranges differ. In the case of a Type I
achievement gap, the size of the gap is dependent on when the assessments were made. Given enough time, learners in both populations will attain the same
level of achievement. Examples of Type I achievement gaps can be found in early child develop studies of mathematics skills between boys and girls, and in
studies of the college performances between young men and women (Eisenberg et al. 1996).
A Type II gap occurs when the sills of the achievement gap are different and the ranges may or may not differ. The implications of a Type II gap are
more problematic than a Type I gap, as a Type II gap implies that simply accelerating the learning process will not eliminate the gap.

Implications
Education and learning are a dynamic system. The use of mathematical and statistical models offers the potential to move beyond descriptive our correlative
assessments of achievement and the achievement gap. The model presented here offers several predictions and implications with regards to assessment and
policy:

Early intervention is essential

Assessment of intervention programs should assess the relative rates of change/improvement in achievement
If there are indeed different achievement profiles, then intervention strategies must reflect them and be provide maximum flexibility.

We end with a word of caution and hope. By no means are we suggesting that once set in motion achievement is held mercy to the interaction of outside
factors. Human beings are resourceful, and once made aware of their predicaments and circumstance, have the capacity to adapt and change them. Our
message is that the achievement gap has been studied, that we are keenly aware of the factors that influence it, and society has taken steps to address it,
yet has failed to eliminate it in large part because it has interpreted the gap in a linear fashion, as being a static measure that resulted from a series external
factors rather than the different states of a dynamic process of the interaction of same external factors.

Literature Cited
Eisenberg, N., C.L. Martin, and R.A. Fabes. (1996). Gender development and gender effects. In:D.C. Berliner & R.C. Calfee (Eds). Handbook of Educational Psychology. New York: Simon and Schuster, MacMillan. pp 358-396.
MacArthur, R.H and E.O. Wilson 1967. The theory of island biogeography. Monographs in Population Biology, Princeton University Press, Princeton, New Jersey.
ONeill, R.V., D.L. DeAngelis, J.B. Waide, and T.F.H. Allen. 1986. A hierarchical concept of ecosystems. .Monographs in Population Biology, Princeton University Press, Princeton, New Jersey. pp 253.
Simon, H.A. 1962. The architecture of complexity. Proceedings of the American Philosophical Society. 106:467-482.

Posters are a common means of communicating the results of a study.

1.
2.
3.
4.
5.

Choose a Poster on the 2nd Floor of the NESB Building

Identify the system under investigation
What are the questions/hypotheses being addressed
Describe the experimental design
Describe the data presented (type and dimensions)

Assignment
1. Read Chapter 1 of Moore and de Ruiter
(2012) Sept. 16, 2013
2. List 5 papers written by your distinguished
ecologist. Sept. 16, 2013
3. Review the papers written by your
distinguished Ecologist with eye toward
defining their ecology world-view in terms
of Community Ecology and in terms of
Ecosystem Ecology. Sept. 16, 2013

Award of Excellence in Ecosystem Science

The NREL Award of Excellence in Ecosystem Science was established
by the Natural Resource Ecology Laboratory, NREL, in 1997. It is
presented to an individual whose independent and interdisciplinary
research has contributed to sustained, innovative syntheses and new
insights in the study of ecosystems.

1. Dr. Jerry M. Melillo

4. Dr. Pamela A. Matson

2. Dr. David Coleman

5. Dr. Samuel J. McNaughton

3. Dr. Thomas Rosswall

6. Dr. F. Stuart Chapin

FACE KEY
A Faces

B Faces

C Faces

1. (FACE SHAPE)
2. (EAR SHAPE)
3. (MOUTH SHAPE)
4. (EYE SHAPE)
5. (NOSE SHAPE)

1. (EAR SHAPE)
2. (NOSE SHAPE)
3. (FACE SHAPE)
4. (EYE SHAPE)
5. (MOUTH SHAPE)

6. (FACE SHAPE)
7. (EAR SHAPE)
8. (MOUTH SHAPE)
9. (EYE SHAPE)
10. (NOSE SHAPE)

b.

c.

a.

A1

A2

A7

A3

A8

A4

A9

A6

A 11

A 12

A 13

A 14

A5

A 10

A 15

A-FACES

B1

B6

B 11

B2

B3

B8
B7

B 12

B 13

B4

B5

B9

B 14

B 10

B 15

B-Faces

C2
C1

C6

C
11

C4

C3

C7

C 12

C
8

C 13

C
9

C5

C 10

C 14
C 15

C-FACES

A 11

A3

A6

A1

A 12

A9

A2

A 13

A8

A 10

A4

A 14

A5

A 15

A7

A-FACES

B4

B5

B3

B1

B
10

B2

B6

B
14

B 12

B7

B8

B 13

B9

B
15

B 11

B-Faces

C2

C1

C4

C5

C3

C6

C
9

C
8

C
11

C 10

C7

C 14

C 13

C 12

C 15

C-FACES

A 11

A3

A8

B4

B2
A6

A9

A4

A 13

C2

A7

A5

A 14

C5

C1

C3

C4

B 11

B 12

B1

B6

B 10
A 12

B8

A 10

A2

A1

B5

B3

C6

C9

C8

A 15

C 11

C 10

C7

C 14

C 13

C 12

C 15

B7

B 14

B9

B 15

B 13

ESS130: Data Analysis Concepts

What are you measuring?

What are you measuring?
What are the units?
What are the precision and accuracy?
How representative is the measurement?

How do you present the results?

Tables
Figures
Other
Schematics
Flow Charts

How do you Summarize Data?

Statistics
Averages
Mean
Median
Mode

Standard Deviation
Coefficient of Variation

Skewness
Kurtosis

Plot of Annual Snow Time Series

1200
2011
2009
median
mean
2012

800
600

400
200

7/1

5/1

3/1

1/1

11/1

0
9/1

SWE [mm]

1000

date

Data Analysis Assignment

From the poster or one of the papers that you
summarized, identify two Figures and two
Tables
For each Figure (with numbers) and Table,
1. Summarize the content, including units where
applicable
2. What were the raw data/measurements used to
derive the results?
3. What are the estimated accuracy and precision
of each measurement?