________________________________

______ __________________20____



-10-1

________________________




________________________

2014

...........................................................................................................................................3
..............................................................................................................................................4
1. ..................................................................6
1.1. ............................................................................................................................6
1.2. ............................................................................................9
1.3. ...........................................12
2. .............................................18
3. ..................................................................................................................................21
3.1. Hirose ............................................................................................21
3.2. ...............................................................................................29
4. .....................................................................................................................................31
4.1. ...................31
4.2. , ...............33
........................................................................................................................................36
..............................................................................................38
1....................................................................................................................................41
2....................................................................................................................................42
3....................................................................................................................................43
4....................................................................................................................................44


1980- , ,
(, ),
. ,
.
,
.
, :
Hirose .
, ,
.

Since the late 1980s, the beginning of the brand evaluation, three main approaches (income,
cost and market) were identified, in which variety of methods was developed. The main problem is
that they sometimes present strikingly different results. In this work attempt to figure out which
method provides the closest estimate to the expert ones was undertaken on the example of Russian
brands. Models from the income approach, the most commonly used approach in practice, were
chosen to calculate the value of Russian corporate brands: a relief from royalty method and Hirose
model and its modifications. This question is of interest for Russian companies that want to estimate
the value of their brand but their brands are not included in the rankings of the most expensive
brands.




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New York, Cacharel, Giorgio Armani Parfums and Cosmetics);

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2004)
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14

D. Aaker (1991), T.
Ambler and P.
Barwise (1998), T.
Tollington(1999), G.
Smith and R. Parr
(2000), A.
Seetharaman (2001),
R. Zimmermann
(2001)

;

;


.

P. Barwise et al.
(1989),
G.Smith and R. Parr,
(2000), P. Fernandez
(2001), M. Boos
(2003)

(),
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,




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,

R. Zimmermann
(2001), Sattler et a
(2000),
Brand Finance
(2000),
Brand
Metrics (2004),
Interbrand
Zintzmeyer and Lux
(2004 )
C. Park and
V. Scrinivasan
(1994),
P. Fernandez (2001),
Kam and
Angberg (2003)

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G. Smith (1997),
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2005 . Toyota
7,9 24,8 , Samsung 12 30,2 .
Apple 5,3 25,8 . .

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, Interbrand.
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40 .
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(15%), , ,
( 12,5%), , ( 10%). (
1)

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21

3.
3.1. Hirose
Hirose
. Hirose ,

, .

. 3
(prestige driver, PD),
(loyalty driver, LD), , (expansion driver, ED).
(Salinas, 2009)
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23

 (1):

(
(1)

: S ,
S- ,
C ,
C- ,
A , ,
OE ,
c ,
c- ,
SO ,
SX - ,
r .
.
, , ,
.
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.
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. (Salinas, 2009)
.. .. (2010)
Hirose.
,
.
Hirose ,
, .
, ,
,
24

 .
, :

As Asi 1
ROA i * i
* Si
1 0 S i
2
PDm

5 i 4 Ci
Ci * EATi

A
* i * C0
OE i

(2)

: PDm ;
ROA - ;
As ;
EAT .
Hirose ,
, -. ,
,
.
, ,
, , ,
.
Hirose. (
2 3)
.

2030

4,46%

- RusBonds 13.05.2014. [37]

(), ,

1994

,
, ,
.
, PD = 14 761, 7
., ,
.

25

 3
.

Sales, ..
Costs, ..
S/C
Sales*, ..

2009
197 655
86 441
2,29
13 555

2010
216 130
97 962
2,21
11 332

2011
246 965
123 778
2,00
10 813

2012
271 661
143 731
1,89
11 758

2013
291 825
146 559
1,99
11 398

Cost*, ..

11 427

10 182

10 002

10 950

10 122

S*/C*
1,19
1,11
1,08
1,07
1,13
A, .
28 257
12 575
22 544
28 566
29 067
, .
256 879
178 852
207 506
223 869
248 075
A/OE
0,07
0,11
0,13
0,12
0,11
PD, .
14 761, 7
.
119 694 ..,
LD = 0,78. ,
, , ,
1. ,
,
11 444 ..
,
, , .
(, , , ).
4
, ..

2011
2012
2013

36 958 236
35 809 950
39 390 945
(SO)

2 525
10 284 962
11 089 535
(SX)
ED
1, 81
.
ED = 1,81. ,
.

(2):
26

VBr

PD * LD * ED
rrf

(2)

VBr ;
rrf .
, Hirose ,
, 230 981,6 . .
Hirose,

.
3% -

.
,
(3):
kd = rrf + company spread + country spread,

(3)

: kd ;
rrf ;
company spread ;
country spread .
30-
, 3,34% [38].
6,5
5 0,70%. ,
2014 , 2,21%, [41].
(ke)
CAPM (4):
ke = rrf + (rrf - rm) *,

(4)

: rrf ;
rm ;
.
(rrf - rm) ,
7,63% [41]. ,
,
, 1,15 [41].
27

 (5):

lev unlev 1 (1 t )
E

(5)

: lev ;
t ;
D/E .

(t),

(EBT) .
WACC (6).

WACC k d * (1 t ) *

D
E
ke *
DE
DE

(6)

: D ;
E ;
t ;
ke ;
kd .
WACC ,
, (7):
1+WACC ( ) 1+WACC ($)
=
,
1+ RUS
1+ US

(7)

: RUS ;
US .
, Hirose,
(8):

VBr

PD * LD * ED * (1 g )
(WACC g )
,

: g .
28

(8)

 , Hirose
VBr (WACC,g,PD) = 184 124 . .
5

rrf
E ,.
D, .
T, .
EBT, .
t
rm
lev
D/E
D/V
E/V
Inflation US
Inflation RUS
ke
kd
WACC ($)
WACC()

2013
0,033
101 081
96 586
9 958
37 416
0,27
0,076
1,94
0,95
0,489
0,511
0,02
0,066
0,13
0,063
0,091
0,14

.
6

,
..

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

EAT,.

26 395

50 312

44 682

43 379

58 475

ROAia

0,109

0,119

0,092

0,087

0,09

Assets,.

Sales,
..
Costs,
..
A, .
, .

184 266

272 558

334 137

372 770

417 032

197 655

216 130

246 965

271 661

291 825

86 441

97 962

123 778

143 731

146 559

12 575
178 852

22 544
207 506

28 566
223 869
6 172

29 067
248 075

28 257
256 879

PDm, .

29

 Hirose,
(9):
VBr

PDm * LD * ED * (1 g )
(WACC g )

(9)

: PDm .
, Hirose
VBr (WACC,g,PDm) = 76 982 . .

3.2.
, ,
.
(), , ,
.
, ,
.

. ,
.
, , (,
), .
:

, (

);
;
;
;
;

. (Salinas, 2009)

30

 ,
, ,
.
6

, ..
,
. .
, . .

, . .


,
. .


, . .

2019 , . .

2014

2015
326
324

2016
357
651

2017
368
381

2018
379
432

14 887

16 316

17 882

18 419

18 971

2 977

3 263

3 576

3 683

3 794

11 909

13 052

14 306

14 735

15 177

0,88

0,77

0,67

0,59

0,52

10 447

10 043

9 656

8 724

7 882

297 741

46 754
15 632

, . .

66 687

, .

113 442

, 3%,
.

, [4].
.
309 20-
.
. ( 4)

31

4.
4.1.

7
, Hirose ,
, .
2013
Interbrand

VBr,
..

VBr
(WACC,g,PD),
..

1 992 811

1 147 336

360 245

,
..
1 576 660

184 124

76 982

113 442

192 107

230 981
198 909

135 921

29 860

107 841

155 473

189 944

146 322

77 386

137 320

114 156

93 249

75 920

54 634

69 088

111 530

165 661

77 347

59 893

150 790

75 191

75 234

51 480

25 559

215 086

53 828

60 888

44 871

17 271

114 172

31 271

33 253

22 179

12 772

87 781

26 243

41 980

44 477

26 231

3 234

48 382

25 949

11 127

33 392

21 792

4 380

3 546

10 151

1 105

46 544

8 187

10
11
12
13
14

135 909
27 428
31 752
45 691
32 802

102 620
22 163
29 107
19 047
10 711

VBr
(WACC,g,PDm),
..

(..)

Interbrand
1 261 617

, ,
,
, . , ,
Hirose, , Interbrand 2,1 .
. ,
,
5%, ,
17%, 23%.

, .
32

 , Hirose, ,
Interbrand, - ,
.
, .
, Hirose

, .
, Interbrand 1,3 . ,
, ..
,
, 50% .
8
, Hirose,
, .
Hirose

2013
Interbrand

VBr
(WACC,g,PDm)
29%

Royalty relief

158%

VBr
(WACC,g,PD)
91%

120%

96%

40%

59%

128%

87%

19%

69%

166%

128%

68%

120%

84%

68%

49%

62%

220%

103%

80%

201%

140%

96%

47%

400%

195%

143%

55%

365%

127%

85%

49%

334%

10

518%

391%

160%

170%

11

106%

85%

12%

186%

12

146%

134%

51%

153%

13

450%

188%

43%

35%

14

143%

131%

14%

569%

VBr

33

125%

 ,
: Hirose

Interbrand Hirose.
,
(, , 2010, .10)
, ,
. , ,
Interbrand,
, 4 - 5,6 .
2,03 . ,

- ,
, ,

4.2. ,

Hirose

Interbrand ,
Hirose
.
9 ,
[42], VBr/Cap
(BrandValue / Capitalization).
, VBr/Cap 10%,
.
VBr/Cap 22%.

2-5 34%. ,
7 81%. ,
, 24 33 %.
1 38%, 22%, 1%.

(81%).
.
34

(38% 34%). ,
(3%, 2% 1% ).
9

,
..

,
.

19 047

VBr/Cap

23 660

81%

58 020
3 341 520

38%
34%

184 124
146 322

550 840
592 100

33%
25%

135 921

575 620

24%

22 179
102 620
51 480

91 914
476 810
474 030

24%
22%
11%

75 920
77 347
29 107

1 047 110
1 607 560
1 097 080

7%
5%
3%

44 871
10 711

2 405 790
739 660

2%
1%

22 163
1 147 336

10 ,
2013 ,
VBr/Sales (BrandValue /Sales).
, VBr/Sales 10%.
VBr/Sales 28%.

1 29%. ,
6 28%.
, , 47
63 %.

(99%).
, (63%, 53%, 47% ).
, , (6%, 4%, 1% ).
35

 10

,
..
102 620

,
.
103 819

VBr/Sales
99%

184 124

291 825

63%

146 322

273 576

53%

135 921

289 433

47%

1 147 336

3 933 335

29%

75 920

272 585

28%

77 347
51 480

480 936
363 531

16%
14%

22 163

206 277

11%

10 711

103 819

10%

22 179

249 014

9%

19 047

313 001

6%

29 107

814 188

4%

44 871

3 544 443

1%

36


. -,

, ,
. , ,
. ,
. -,
. ,
, ,
- .
,
. ,
, ,
. ,
. ,

.
1980- , ,
(, ),
. ,
,
.
, ,
.

Hirose ,

Interbrand. ,
. , ,
, , Interbrand 2,03. ,
Hirose, , Interbrand 2,11 .
Hirose, , ..
37

 ,
, 2 .
Hirose
Interbrand
Hirose. Hirose

.
VBr/Cap 22%, VBr/Sales 28%. ,
, ,
.

(81%).
.
(38% 34%). ,
(3 ).

(99%).
, (63%, 53%, 47% ).
, , (6%, 4%, 1% ).
, ,

Hirose
, .
,
Brand Finance,
2013 63 ,
Interbrand 40.

.
,
.

38

1. ,
23 1992 . 3520-1
2. (IAS) 38
[.].

http://www.minfin.ru/common/img/uploaded/library/no_date/2012/IAS_38.pdf.

3. . . .: , 2003. 440
.1.
4. .., ..
// , 2006 .
5. .., .. : Hirose,
2010.
6. .. // , 2012. 4. .31-36.
7. . . : // -,
5 2007 .
8. .. :

//

Terra

Economicus

), 2009, . 7, 3.
9. . ., . . //
, N 3 (39), 2011.
10. .. //
, N 1, 2010 .
11. .. //
. 1 (27). , 2002.
12. . . :

, 1 2 (4344), 2003
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[.
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http://www.interbrand.com/Libraries/Branding_Studies_RU/Best_Russian_Brands_2010.sflb.ashx
36. : [.].
: http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/FP.CPI.TOTL.ZG.
37. [. ]. : http://www.rusbonds.ru
38. . [. ]. : finance.yahoo.com/bonds.
40

39. FIRA:
[. ]. : http://www.fira.ru.
40.

Standard&Poors
:http://www.standardandpoors.com/home/ru/ru
41.

DamodaranOnline

[.

[.

].

].

http://people.stern.nyu.edu/adamodar/
42. Investfunds,
. [. ]. : http://stocks.investfunds.ru/issuers/

41

 1
2013, Interbrand.
12013
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40

1-

Mail.ru

(.)
1 261 617
192 107
155 473
114 156
111 530
106 697
98 973
75 191
56 240
53 828
40 823
32 360
31 271
28 315
26 243
26 231
25 949
21 792
21 049
15 414
11 439
10 944
10 618
10 151
8 313
8 270
8 187
7 937
6 369
6 203
6 094
4 494
4 074
3 715
3 542
3 539
3 426
3 385
3 175
3 088

: Interbrand, 2013

42

43

Hirose

PD, .
199 968
14 761
16 677
24 051
86 850
21 019

LD
0,75
0,78
0,75
0,71
0,7
0,54

ED
1,11
1,81
1,11
1
1,06
1,07

VBr, .
1 992 811
230 981
198 909
189 944
165 661
135 909

7 859
5 190
103 855
2 809
4 743
2 331
3 542
3 415

0,86
0,8
0,47
0,74
0,6
0,68
0,8
0,67

1
1,27
1,11
1
1,02
1
1
1

93 249
75 234
60 888
45 691
33 253
32 802
31 752
27 428

44

PDm,

WACC,

VBr (WACC,g,PD),

VBr (WACC,g,PDm),

.
32 335

%
10,7

.
1 147 336

.
360 245

6 172

14

184 124

76 982

12 719

14,4

146 322

77 386

3 472

13,2

135 921

29 860

8 994

15

102 620

41 980

1 953

13

77 347

59 893

4 935

10,5

75 920

54 634

5 910

12,5

51 480

25 559

4 177

11,1

44 871

17 271

1 611

11,4

29 107

11 127

741

20

22 179

12 772

5 259

14,4

22 163

3 234

729

16,7

19 047

4 380

185

13,1

10 711

1 105

3
Hirose

45

..

10,7

1 576 660

9,3

12,5

215 086

16

13

150 790

10

14,4

137 320

13

11,1

114 172

9,6

14,0

113 442

5,1

13,2

107 841

12

20,0

87 781

10,5

69 088

22

14,4

48 382

13,1

46 544

18

15,0

44 477

12,4

11,4

33 392

10

16,7

3 546

, %

, %

12

46