( )

..


,
010400.62 " "
080500.62 " "

2014





( )

__________ ..
______ __________ 2014.

..


,
010400.62 " "
080500.62 -
( )

2014
2

: 519.86(073)
: 65.050.03073
66
: .. , ...,

66
..

. ,
010400.62 "
" 080500.62 -. .:
,
, 2014. 122 .

519.86(073)
: 65.050.03073




, ..
6090/16. Times New Roman
. .. _. .
2014. - .
_______

, 2014
, 2014


................................................................................................................ 5
1. .............................. 5

1 ...... 20
2. ................................................. 20
3. ,
( ) ....................................................... 29
4. , ,
- ...................................................................... 34
5. ,
, ............... 42
6.
.................................................................. 50

2 ............................................ 62
7. ............... 62
8.
.................................. 75
9.
.......................................................................................................... 84
10. ...................... 90
11. ............................................. 92
12. ............... 102
13. .................. 113

........................................................................................ 122


1. .
:
1.
.
2.
.

,
-
, .

. ,
.
,
- .
:
; (, )

;
,
( 2) .
,
.
.
. ,
, , ,
.

.
.
.
, ,
.
,
5

 . -
. ,
.
,
. -

. ,
.
. 1.1
.

1.1.
(. simulation)
,

.
.

,
, ,
,

.

,
6


.
:
-

.
,
.
,
.
, ,
.

, .

, .
,
.

,

.

( ) ,
( ) , (
) (
).
.
.
,
.
, ,
,
. ( )
2-3
. ,
,
7

 2-5 . ,

.
,
.

, 30% , 20%
, 40% .

.

, ,
, , .

.
,
,
.

1) (uniform, ).
() a b.
1
[, ]
=
0
[, ]

(1.1)

1.2.
,
1.
8

 0 1
a b.

[, ]
=
(1.2)
0
[, ]

1

1.3.
:

+
2
()2
12

, .
, .
,
0 1.
.
, .
0.5,
1/12.
,

,
.
1
1

1 + 2
1 + 2 + 3

1.4.

9

2) (exponential, ).
.
= ,

(1.3)

1.5.
,
, ,
.
,
,
.
.
= 1 ,

(1.4)

1.6.
:

1
2

.
, ,

, .
10

 , ..
, .

.
3) .

.
= 5 ,
(
).
:
1
=
,
1 !

(1.5)

=1
=3

1.7.
= 1 = 3
= 1
.
:

(
),
.
4) .
,
. : 1)

, ; 2)
, ,
11

 ; 3)
.

1.8.

(
)

= 1 ,

(1.6)

1.9.
=1

,
.

= 1 ,

(1.7)

.
, ,
. =3
, ,

12

.
( ).
5) (normal, , Gaussian).

. ,
, ,
.
"", (, ,
) ( ).
=

1
2

( )2

2 2

(1.8)

1.10.
m=5 =1

, ,
(
).

( = 0) ( = 1) .

,
, , 2 .

13

 1.11.
m=5 =1
, c
, :
1
1 2
3
5
2 +1
, 0,1 = +
2 [ + +
++
]
2
3 35
3 5 7 (2 + 1)
2

= 2

(1.9)

, [ 1; + 1]
~68% , [ 2; + 2] ~95%
, [ 3; + 3] ~99.7%.
2 3
.

( , ),
.

.
6) (triangle).

.
14

 ab
c, - .
2( )
( )
2( )
=
( )
0

[, ]
[, ]

(1.10)

[, ]

1.12.
,
.
,
.
0
( )2
( )
=
( )2
1
( )
1

<
[, ]
(1.11)
[, ]
>

1.13.
:

++
3
2 + 2 + 2
18

, .
15


1) . N
.

.
= = = =

(1.12)

1 2 3

1.14.

0

< 1
< +1 ,

(1.13)

>

()
1
2/
1/

1 2 3

1.15.

( ())2

16

2) .
N ,
.

,
:
, :
0 = 0,0,0, ,0 = (1 )
, :
(1,0,0, ,0)
(0,1,0, ,0)
1 =
= (1 )1

(0,0,0, ,1)
, = 3
, ,
N ( N).
=

!
! !

(1,1,1,0,0, ,0)
(1,1,0,1,0, ,0)

(1,1,0,0, ,0,1)
= (1,0,1,1,0, ,0) = (1 )
(1,0,1,0,1, ,0)

(0,0, ,0,1,1,1)

(1.14)

0.3
0.2
0.1

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

1.16. = 0.2 = 10

, .
17

= (1 )

.
3) . ,
,
.
,
:
= (1 )

(1.15)

0.3
0.2
0.1

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

1.17. = 0.25

, .
:

= (1 )/

= (1 )/2

, .
3) .
,
, ,
.
.
,
.
,
.
18

 :
=

> 0

(1.16)

0.3
0.2
0.1

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

1.18. = 2

, .
:

, ,
.
,
, .

19

 1
2. .
:
1. : ,
.
2. . .
3. .
4. ,
.
5. .
.
6. .

,
.
,
, .
,
, , .
,
.
,
.

, , , ,
,
.
. 20
,
.
, .
, 50
.
.
,
20

 .
.

,
, .
1940-1950 ,

.
,
.
, ,
.
2.1.

40 - .

21

 ,
0 = 1993. 0 2 = 0349 (
, )
1 = 9720 ,
.. 0
1, 10000 ( ).

2.
2.2.

1993 03972049

9720 94478400 0.9720

4784 22886656 0.4784

8866 78605956 0.8866

6059 36711481 0.6059

7114 50608996 0.7114

6089 37075921 0.6089

0759 00576081 0.0759

,
.
""
.
, ..
. ,
, , .
, ,
,
.
, .
,
, ,
, .
, ,
22

,

,
.
(
) :
1)
[0;1] .
2) .
3)
.
4)
().
()

,
.

:
= 1 + mod ,

(2.1)

, - , - .
0
1 . [0,1),
.
= /

(2.2)

,
1/ (
, 1/2 ).
.
= 16, = 5, = 3,
0 = 7.
23

1 = 5 7 + 3 mod 16 = 38 mod 16 = 6
1 =

6
= 0.375
16

.
2.3. = , = , =

0,4375

0.3750

0.0625

0.5000

11 0.6875

10 0.6250

12 0,7500

15 0,9375

14 0,8750

10

0,5625

11

12

0,1875

13

0,1250

0.3125

14 13 0,8125
15

0,2500

16

0,4375

17

0,3750

, ,
,
().
, , ,
.
( )
. ,
( 0 1 ).
24

 , ,
.
, .. = 16.
,

0 .
:
:
, :
1) (
(, )=1);
2) 1 ,
;
3) 4, 1 4.
mod
. ,
.

. , 32 , 1
, = 231 .

. , , ,
.

31

0 1 1 1 0 1 0 1 1 1

1 0 1

2.1.
,
,
. ,

, .

25


= 0, ,
,
( < ). , = 231 ,
2312 .
( , 1
), 1.
, , .
, , 231 ,
231 1. , = 231 1 = 2147483647,
231 2. ,
1 ( ).
,

, .
= 231 ( = 1). , ,
31 .
231 . ,
231 ,
, .. .

31

0 1 1 1 0 1 0 1 1 1
= 1 div 231

1 0 1

= 1 mod 231
231

2.2.
.

, 231 .

= 1 mod 231
= 1 div 231
= +
= (231 ) 231

(2.3)
(2.4)
(2.5)
(2.6)

: ,

.
26

 ,
. 80
,
= 630360016.
:

= 231 1 = 630360016.
= 630360016 1 mod (231 1)

(2.7)

, ,

( 2-3%) , ..
.
, ( ),
.
.


,
1. ,
.
:
= 1 1 + 2 2 + + mod .

(2.8)

.
.
, ,
, .
1. ,
= 2, = 231 262 1.
.

.

= 1 , 2 , , mod

(2.9)

27


.
,
,
, .
,
, 2
, .
,
.
',
,
, .
2191 .
1, = 1 403 580 1,2 810 728 1,3 mod (232 209)
2, = 527 612 2,1 1 370 589 2,3 mod (232 22 853)
= 1, 2, mod (232 209)

(2.10)

= /(232 209)
,
.
,
, .
.

28

 3. ,
( ).
:
1. ( ).
2. .
3. .
4. .

.

,
.

.
,
.
( )
, -
. , = ( )2 ,
: = . = + ,
.
.

=

:
= 1 .

(3.1)

,
[0,1].
, [0,1],
,
.
29

2
2

3.1.

. ,
, ,
, .

..

3.2.

,

. [0,1], , ,

().
= 1 =

= ()

3.1. .
= ,
= 1 . , 1
, .
= 1
1 =
(1 ) =
=

(1 )

(3.2)
30

 ,
[0,1] , 1
[0,1]. (3.1).
=

()

(3.3)

.


.
,
.
()

5
4
3

2
1

1 2 3

4 5

3.3.
,
.

1
1

4 5

3.4.

:
1. = 1 ; = 1;
2. [0,1].
3. , , 4.
4. = + 1, = + , 3.

31

 ,
.
,
,
.

.
,

. 1
.

( , ) ,
( ).
1
0,9
0,8
0,7
0,6
0,5
0,4
0,3
0,2
0,1
0
0

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

3.5. F(x)

1.
= 1 .
2.
.
3.
.

32


1. ,
.
2.
,
.

,
,
. .
3.
, ,
. ,
, ,
:
1) 0 1.
2) = +
3) = 1 .

1
()

()

3.6.

33

 4. , ,
- ........................................................................................... 34.
:
1. .
2. -
.

,
,
,
.

()

(4.1)

()

(4.2)

=1

=
=1

, [0,1]

= 1.

.
1. [0,1].
2.
( ,
).
3.
().
.
4.1.

.
()
= 0.5 ||

(4.3)
34


0,5

4.1.

- 1.
,
,
.
= 0.5 (,0] () + 0.5 (0,+) ()

(4.4)

(,0] 0 1 ,
.
= 0.51 + 0.52 , 1
, 2 .

:
1) 1 [0,1].
2) 0.5
0.5 .
1 0.5 , .
3)
.
(1 )
2 [0,1], = +

(1 )

=
( ,

, 0.5 ).
.

.
2 ,
.
, 0.5.
.
35

0,5
2

4.2. [, ]
4.2.

. .
= + 2 1 [0,1]

(4.5)

= 1

=
0

4.3.

= = 1 .

.
= 1 + 2 [0,1]

(4.6)

:
1) 1 [0,1].
2) 1 ,
.
3) .
2 0,1 .
= 2 .
= 2 ( = max
(2 , 3 ) ).

.
36


.
= 1 .
.

. [, ],
1 ,
2 .
.
[, ] ,
, [, ] ,
4.4.
1
= 1 + 2

4.4. [, ]
,

, .
,

,
.
-

.
. ,
.
- .
,
37


.
1) - ,
.
, .
,
.
2) 1 (-
, 1),
=

. ,

1, () = /.
3) ()
(- ,
).
4)
= ().

0,1

5) , 3
, 3-5. , (, )
, ,
()
.
4.3.
1

= sin
()
2

0 .
0,6
0,5
0,4
0,3
0,2
0,1
0
0

4.5.
38

 , ,
0.5.
= 0.5 ( ).
, = 0.5.
=

= 0 = .
.
1) [0; ]
2) 0,1
= 0.5 (
0,0.5 )
3) = 0.5 sin
() ,
, .
0,6
0,5
0,4
0,3
0,2
0,1
0
0

4.6. -
,
= 0.5, ,
, , ,
, .
- ( ),
.
4.6
. ,
.

.
2

1 . 1 0,36 .

39

 -
, .
,
, - ,

. , ,
0.8 (
).
, .. 0.4 1.256,
1,
0.256.

0.256
1.256

= 0,203.

0,9
0,8
0,7
0,6
0,5
0,4
0,3
0,2
0,1
0
0

4.7.
,
, - ,
,
, , .
,
, .
,
X,
, .
X
40

,
.
0,6

0,6

0,4

0,4

0,2

0,2

0
0

4.8.
.
4.9
[, ]

() . =

,
[, ]

, .
1

=H

. [, ]
( , )
,

( ). , [, ],
, (),
, ,

() (

, ).

()

()

4.9. [, ].

41

 5. , ,
.
:
1.
.
2. .
3. ,
.

.


,
. ,
.
,
, .
,

.
.
1) 1 , 2 , 3 , , .
2)
( )
=
.

3) =
=1 .
: ..
, .
, .
=

=1

(5.1)

-,
.
,
42

 2 = 12 + 22 + + 2
-
= +1 /

2
=1

. =

1
2
=1
2
2
=1

1 2 .

(triangle(0,1,1),
b, 0 1). 1
2 0 1,
= max
(1 , 2 )

.
, . . .
= max 1 , 2 = 1 2 = = 2
= = 2 .
.
=

= 2

(5.2)

5.1.
= 0,
= = 1 . ,

,
.
. = max
(1 , 2 )
, 1
.

43




() , ,

. ,

.
(
0 1) 1/12. ,
. 12
,
.
0.5, 12
6.
12
6.
12

(5.3)

=1

,
.
,
6 6,
+ ( [3; 3]
0,0027).
12 ,
,
( ).

-.
1 2 ,
:
1 =

2(1 )cos
(22 )

(5.4)

2 =

2(1 )sin
(22 )

(5.5)

44

 2 2
,

.
.
(0,0)
.
1 12 + 22
(1 , 2 ) =
2
2

(1 , 2 )
2
1

5.2.
1 2

.
,
. , .. 2 0,1 ,
22 0 2.

2
2

~
.
2
2 =

(1 )
1
2

= 2(1 ).
.
2 2
,
, .

.
45

 .
1)
1 2 . 1 = 21 1, 2 = 22 1, = 12 + 22 .
2) < 1 , = (2)/
1 = 1 , 2 = 2 , 1 1.


. 2 ,
, 1, 1 /4.
, - , ,
, , 27%.
,
.


:
+ = + ()
= ()
=
+ = + ()
=0
= 2

(5.6)

= ()
= ()
X
0 1, (
)
+ 1.
0 1 X
0 , .

X , . (
)
46

5.3.
(
) 0 1
.
1,
X, .
, 0,
.

==1

5.4.
.
, X
0 1, 1
, ,
.

==1

==0

=1

5.5.
.

= () , +(
47

 0) ,

= , 0 +.

5.6.
,
, ,
= () , .

.

5.7.

,
(.. = ()/
1

= ()/( )).

1
2

( )2
2 2

( ,
) ( ).
,

.

48

1
+2
3

3 2 1

5.8.

,
, .
,
.

49

 6.
.
:
1. -, , .
2.
.
3.
.
4.
.
5.


.

. ,
,
. ,
,
.
,

. ,

,
,
. ,
.
-
- ,
2
2

= 12 + 22 + +
,
(
. ).
6.1.
,
,
50

 .

/
, , (
( + )2 2 < , , ).
2
~(0,1)

3 2 1

6.1.

-
, 2
2. = 2
.
.

6.2. -
- :

2 1 2
2 =
(6.1)

2
2 ( )
2
1
= 0 ,
= 1 !
- , ,
, . 51


0,95 0,99.
2

6.3. -

-
,
,
( ):
0
0
=
=
(6.2)
1 2
1 2

=1


, .. -
.
, ,

, .

6.4. .
52


() . ,
:
+1
+1

2
1 ( 2 )
2
=

1+
(6.3)

( )
2

. ,

+ , . , , ,
95%
99%.

6.5.


.

() .
,
:
1 , 2 =

1 2
=1
2 2
=1

1
= 21
2 2 2

(6.4)

( ).
,
1 2 .
:

53

 1 , 2

1
2
1
1 + 2
1
2

1 2 2
2

2
=

1 + 2

21 22
(1 + 2 ) 2

(6.5)

.
1 2
.

6.6.
,
.

6.7.
(-)

.
1 , 2 , 3 , ,
, ,
54


( ).

= 2 2

,
. (
)
.
,
. ,
, ,
= 1 + 2 () ..
. -,
, = 5() , ..
, .
, .
3
= 3.5/ ,
. ,
, .
,
.
Excel
, ,
;
, .

6.8.

, ,
. ,
55

 , .
"", ?


( - , -
),
, ,
. :

=
=1

( )2

(6.6)

, 2
- .
, , 95%
-
. , 2 < ,
2 - .
,
.
.
,
"",
.
, 2 ,
5% -,
, , .
.
, .

.


,

.
56

 1 , 2 , 3 , , .
,
= 0 ,

,
= 1.

1
1

6.9.

( )
.
= sup | |

(6.7)

= ,
(
,
).
( 0.95 0.99)

.
= < ,
(
). ,
.
,
5% ( 1%) , ,
57

 ,
.
.

,
,

, .


, 1968 .
(1 , 2 ), (2 , 3 ), , ( , +1 )
,
[0,1]2 ,
(1 , 2 , 3 ), (2 , 3 , 4 ),, ( , +1 , +2 )
[0,1]3 .
d- (1 , 2 , 3 , , )
1
[0,1] .

. ,

, .

6.10.
: ) m=128, a=17, c=1; ) m=128, a=5, c=1;

58

 6.11.
m=64, a=37, c=1
,
,
, (
). [0,1]
, .
1 ,2 ,,
:

1 =1 2 =1

=1

(1 ,2 ,, 1 ,2 ,, )2
1 ,2 ,,

(6.8)

1 ,2 ,, ,
1/ ,
.

, 2
-
2 < 95% ( 99%).
,
,
.
.
6.10
= 10 . 100
59

.
2 (6.8) =

1
100

6.12.

2 = 130.4
- = 124.3
= 100,
.
6.10, ,
, ,
2 = 28.11 , ,

.

,
,

,
= , + = 0 . ()

:
= , +

, +
=
=
+

1
1 + +
1
2 + +
1

(6.9)
2

60

 + , +
.
.

(+ )
2

(6.10)

(.. ),
.
. 0 1
(,
. 484):
( ) =

13 + 7
.
( + 1)2

(6.11)

= 0
,
.

=
6.12
( )
95% ( 99%),
,
, .. = 0.
, ,

.

61

 2
7. .
:
1. .
.
2. .
3. .
4. Excel.
5. GPSS World.
6. .

, .
,
, .
()
.
, ,
, .
7.1.

, ,

, , ,

, , ,

,

, ,

,
,

,

,
,
, ,
,

:
62

1) ,
2)
3)
4)
5)
,
.., .
( ),
10 , (),
10 3 . ,
,
.

,

.
FIFO ( ,
, ) LIFO ( ,
, ).
, ,
. , ,

.
, 20
, 21 ,
10 ,
.

.
, .

.
,

.
, ,
63

 ,
.
, ,
,
.

, ,

.

,
, .

.
.

. , , ,
,
. , ,
, ,
,
.

.

.


, .
,
. ,
.
, .
, ,
, ,
.
.
64


, ,
() ,
, .
.

, 7.1.
: 5.87, 4.62, 6.15, 0.50,
1.09, 1.47, 0.56, 0.38, 13.34, 0.76, 13.32, 12.88, 11.38, 0.32 (
10 ).
,
: 5.47, 5.83,5.77,6.54, 4.64, 4.23, 4.50, 4.77, 4.51, 5.15, 5.65,
5.00, 5.21, 6.62, 4.97, 3.70, 5.49, 5.97, 5.27, 4.25 (
5 0.5).
1
, . 1 ,
1 ,
. 1
2 , ,
1 .

.
+1

( ) .
,
, ,
.
, ,
= 60 ,
10 = 57,72.

65

 7.1.

,
:
1)
2)
3)

,
. ,
,
,

. , ,
, , .
,
,
.

,
:
=

=1

(7.1)

- , -
.
, ,
()
66

 .

.
.
(
)
,
:
=

=0

( = )

(7.2)

- , ( = ) -
, .

q ,
,
.
:
=

=0

(7.3)

- .
,
.
,

.
,
. : ,
.
=

.
.
=1

(7.4)

0 1 (
, )
.

67

 ,
. ,
, ,
,
. ,
,
.
,
.

.
(
) .
, ,
.
Excel.
.
.
10 .
5 .
,
(), ..

.

. 100
.

68

69

70

 GPSS World
Excel
.
GPSS World (General Purpose Simulation System).

GPSS

,
( 30), .
,

, .
,
,
, .

( ) .
GENERATE (exponential(1,0,6))
QUEUE
o4ered
SEIZE
Prodavec
DEPART
o4ered
ADVANCE (exponential(2,0,5))
RELEASE
Prodavec
TERMINATE 1
START 100

; ( 6 )
;
; ,
;
; 5
;
;
; 100
;

GPSS World
.

()
.
.

=
.

, ,

. ,
, ,
, .
71

 :
.
, 5 ,
7 , 12
( ).
( )
.
,
.
,

() . 7.2
.
()

()

7.2. , - ,

,


:
1) U 0 1
2) ,
= ()/
3) +1 = +

. ()
,
, +1
, 7.3.
72

()

7.3.

. ,
,
,
.
:
1) ,
()
2) +1 =
3) 1 2 0 1
4) +1
( ) +1 = +1
(1 )/
5) 2 (+1 )/ +1 ,
3.
7.4.
()

+1

7.4.

73

 ,
, .
,
.
,
,
( ).
,
() (
),
,
.
,
,
.

74

 8.
.
:
1.
.
2.

.
3.

4.

, .
,
,

.
.


Y
.
,
,

, ).

8.1.

75

 ,
,
min
(, ).

8.2. ,

( c 1)
.
N,
.
=

=1

=1

(8.1)

,
2

8.3. ,

,
, (
),
T,
. , 8.3, 8.2
, .
=

=1

(8.2)

76

=1

(8.1),

.
=

(8.3)

.

( 8.4, ,
0). ,
:
=

=1

=1

(8.4)

8.4.
8.4 ,
8.3,
=

=1

(8.5)

8.5 8.4

.
=

(8.6)

,

:
= + = +

(8.7)

77

 , 8.3, 8.6, 8.7

.

.

.
. 0 . 1
, . ,
n .
( ),
, .

.

8.5, ( ).
, ,
,
. ,
, , 3 ,
3 ( 2 2, 1
1, .. ).
0

8.5. 3

,
( ).
, .. ,
,

, ,
. , 3
( 3,
2 4 3).
78

3 3 + = 2 + 2 3
(
),

, .
8.1. ,
8.5,
.
0 0 = 1 .
1 : + 1 = 0 + 22 .
2 : + 2 2 = 1 + 33 .
3 : + 3 3 = 2 + 34 .
4 : + 3 4 = 3 + 35 .
: + 3 = 1 + 3+1 .
0 .

1 = 0

: + 1 = 1 + 22 2 = 2 1 = 2
: + 2 2 =

: + 3 3 =

2 + 33 3 =
3 + 34 4 =

2 =

23

3 =

233
1

: = 3 1 = 233 3

:
0

1
1+ +
2

1
+
23

+
233

+ +
2 3 33

=1

2 ,
1

23
0

1
1+ +
2

1
+
23

1+
+ +
3
3

=1

79

1+

++

( < 1,

1
1

1
1+ +
2

1
+
23

=1

1 3

0 :
0 = 1

1
1+ +
2

1
+
23

3
3

(8.8)

1 = 0 , 2 = 2 1 , 3 = 3 2 , , = 3 1

0 .
(8.8)
.

.
1

0 = 1
=0

1
!

1
+
!

(8.9)

,
,
.


.
, ,
.

, :
=

=0

(8.10)

+ - , ,
.
80

,
:

+ = 1 4 + 2 5 + + +3 + =
=1

= 0

+ 0

!
3 1
= 0
!

+ + 0
2

!
1

+2

= 0

+3

1
!

=1

+3

+=

= , < 1

(1)2

1/
(1/1)2

= 0

1
!

(8.11)

.
= /
= + 1/
=
()
, ..
:
=

(8.12)

,
(
)
= 12 ,
= 5 , - 3.
81

12
53

= = ,
5

, 0 =
1

1+ +
=1

=1

23

1 + 2.4 + 2.88 + 2.304

15
3

1+
1
17.8

12
5

12 2

1
23

12 3

35
3512

0,0562

:
= 0

! 1 2 17.8
1
1 0.8
=
13.824
= ,
17.8
6 0.22

2.43

1
6

0.8
1 0.8

:
= / = 2,589 12 = 0.216 . .
,
, ,
60.

, :
= +

1
= 0.216 + 0.2 = 0.416 = .

:
= = 12 0.416 = .

.
GPSS World,
:
Prodavec STORAGE 3
GENERATE (exponential(1,0,5))
QUEUE
o4ered
ENTER
Prodavec
DEPART
o4ered
ADVANCE (exponential(2,0,12))
LEAVE
Prodavec
TERMINATE 1
START 100

; ( 5 )
;
;
;
; 12
;
;
; 100
;

82

 8.1. ,

,

N

N=100 N=1000 N=10000 N=100 N=1 N=10

0.8

0.850

0.808

0.797

0.797

0.798

0.800

2.589

1.779

2.180

2.125

2.152

2.530

2.558

12.94

9.426

11.182

10.742

10.800

12.664

12.788

, ,
,

( 10 100).


.
,
10 ,
, .
,
. ,
, ,
, ,
.
,
,
. , ,
,
,
.
, ,
,
, .

83

 9.
.
:
1.

.
2.

.

.
.

.
7 11
, 10
. 9.1 ,
.
.
,
, , ..
,
,
.

84

10

9.1.

85

 , .
1.
.
,
, .
1.1. .
1.2. , , :
- (,
, , ,
, );
- , ,
, ;
- ,
;
- ,

- ;
- ;
- ;
-
.
2.
.
,
.
2.1.
, .
.
2.2.
.
2.3. "
", .
2.4.
() .
86

2.5.
. , , ,

.
2.6.
- .
2.7. .
.
.
. ,
, ..

.
3.
.
,
, , ,
, ,
.
3.1. .
4.
.
.

(++, #, Pascal, Delphi, Java .),

(GPSS, AnyLogic .).

,
, .
,
.
,
.

.
,
, , ,
87

 .
,
.
4.1. .
5.
.

.
6.

.

.
6.1.
.
6.2. ,
, ,

.
6.3. ,
, .
7.
. ,
,
, :
7.1.
7.2.
7.3.

.
8.
.
,
.
9.
.


.
88

10. .

: ,
, .
10.1.
,
;
10.2. .
10.3.
,
;
10.4.
.

89

 10. .
:
1.
2.
3.
4.

.
.
.
.

,
.
,
.
.
,
.

,
.
- (),
,
.
- ,
( )
.

:

- ,
;
-
;

- ,
;
-
" ",
, (" ?").
90

 10.1.,
.

1,2,3

5,6,7,
8,9

10.1.

.
1) ,
, .
,
( ),
.
2)
, ..
.
3)
, ,
.
, .
4) (
)
.

.
,
.
5) ,
, .
6)
, ,
, .
91

7)
, .., ,
.
, ..
,
.

:
1)
, .
2) ,
, ,
. :
- , ,
(, ..);
-
, ;
- ,
( , ,
5 10 );
- ,
, ..;
- , ,
;
-
, ;
-
, .
3)
, :

- ,
,
;
92

-
,
;
-
;

-
,
.
4) ,
, .
, :
- , , ;
-
;
- , ,
;
-
( , , , );
- .
5)
.
.
- ,
, ,

.

1)
, ,
.
:

93

- ,
, ,
;
- , ,

;
-
;
2) ,
, ,
. :
- ,
,
, ,
.
- ,

;
-
,
,
( );
- ,
, .
-
, ;
-

,
( , ), 10.2.

94

10.2.

95

 11. .
:
1.
2.
3.
4.

.
2 .
2 .
.

(
),
. ,

,
,

.


, .
.

. ,
.
, , ,
.
11.1.
.

(+)
(-)

(+)
(-)

+
+

96

, (). ,
,
.

.

,
.
,
. ,
, .
, ,

( , ..
).

11.1. ,
) , )
,
,
,
.
,

, .
97

 k ,
k ,
k=2 ( ), k=3 (
)
.

,
. , 10 ,
10 , k=3
1000,
5 ,
5000.
.

. ,
, -
.
,
. , +. ,
,
:
-
+;
- +
;
-
,

.
2
,
11.2.
.

98

 11.2. 2 k=3 .
i - 1 2 3
1
2
3
1

1
2
+

2
3

3
4
+
+

4
5

+
5
6
+

+
6
7

+
+
7
8
+
+
+
8

.
,
+.
=

21

(11.1)

- j i.
,
:
2 1 + 4 3 + 6 5 + (8 7 )
1 =
.
4
,
+ ,
.

()
+.
=

21

(11.2)

,
:
12 =

1 4 3 + (8 7 )
2 1 + (6 5 )

.
2
2
2

,
+ ( ).
99

 (11.2) , j l
,
,
.
2

. 10 5
5 210 =
5120 ,
, 85
10 8 .


,
.
,

(
).
2 ,
, .
k-p
, p
,
.
, k=11 2116
. 5
( 32 ), 6
5 :
6 - 1,2 3 ;
7 - 2, 3 4 ;
8 - 3,4,5 ;
9 - 1,3,4 ;
10 - 1,4,5 ;
11 - 2,4,5 .

100

 k=11 2114 ,
4
7 :
8 - 1,2,3,7 ;
9 - 2, 3,4,5 ;
10 - 1,3,4,6 ;
11 - 1,2,3,4;5,6,7 .
, 2116
IV, 2114 V, ,

4 5 (..
IV,
,
V
).


.

( 100),

.
( )
.
.

"+" "". ,
"+" "", ,
,
( ),
.

,
.
( 1
101

), ,
.


,

.
.
.

102

 12. .
:
1.
.
2.
.
3.
.
4.

.
-


. ,
,
.

,
. 12.1
,

, .

, .
20
18
16

(1)
(2)
(1)
(2)

14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0

12.1.

103


:
, ,
( ).
, ,

( ). , 2 3
, 2

,
3 .

,
.

,
, .

, ,

( ).
12.2.
, ,
.
20
18
16

(1)
(2)
(1)
(2)

14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0

12.2.

104


, ,
1 2 ,
= 2 1
,
1 2 .
=

=1

2 1

= 2 1

= 2 1 = 2 + 1 2(1 , 2 )

(12.1)
(12.2)

,
, .. .
,
, ,
,
, , . ,
,
,
, .

. 100

18.00 0.07
, 90%
0.70 0.04.

250 ! (,
2004, . 671).

() ,

.

,
,

105

 .
,
.

.
, ,

, .
() .

, ,

, . ,



,
,
,
,
, , 12.3.
,

,
. 12.3
1-, 4- , 12.3. 1- 5-.

12.3.
, ,
, ,
106

 ,
.
,
,
, 12.4.
.
, ,
,
,
, ,
, . 12.4.
, 12.4.
, ,

. ,
,
.

12.4.

, ,
. , ,
,
,

( )
-

107

.
,
,
1-U U, ,
,
, ,
.
,
, ,
.
,

.

,
. ,
,

.

, ,
.
,

, .
, 1,2 3, 1,3 5, ..
.
,
.
.
:
1,2 3, 4, 5 6,
7, 8, 9, .
,
.
, ,
.
,
108

.
, .
,
.


, .

.
(t)
,
.
() 1 2 ,
1 2 , 1 2 .
= 2 1 ,
, ,
,
1 = 2 = .

.

2
( ( ))
( ) =
1
, ,
. ,
0.90, 0.95 0.99.
1
( ).
( ) =

:
( ) ( )

(12.3)

109

 ..
(
),
, ( ) .

:
( )

( )

(12.4)

, ,

(

1
2

( )
2

).

.
,
( ) ,
.

,
1 2 ,
. ,

, (1 ), (2 ), (1 ) (2 ).
( 1):

1 + 2

(12.5)

[ 1 1 ]2 [ 2 2 ]2
+
1 1
2 1

,
.
:
(1 ) 2 1

1 + 2

2 .

(12.6)

110


,
.

, .

.

. , 2
4 .
,

.

,
,
, ..
.
, ,
, .


.

,
1975 ,
. (
, ).

, = 20.
( ) ( ) .

:
2 ( )
=

( )2

(12.7)
111


, - ,

,
, = 20
12.1.
.
12.1. =

10

0.90

1.896

2.342

2.583

2.747

2.870

2.969

3.051

3.121

3.181

0.95

2.453

2.872

3.101

3.258

3.377

3.472

3.551

3.619

3.679

2 ( )
:

+
( )2
=
1+ 1
1 2
+

( )

(12.8)

, , ( ) , .

.
( ) = ( ) + (1 ) 2 ( )

(12.9)

( ) ( ) .
, ,
.

112

 13. .
:
1.
2.
3.
4.

.
.
- .
-.

-
. .
.
- ,
,
.. 1960-70- . : T , X - , -
, Y - , Z -
; : H -
, G - ,
13.1.

g(t)

y(t)Y

x(t)X

H, G
Z(t)

13.1.

, ,
.

,
" " ( ).
,
, 13.2.

113


A1

A2

A3

A4

13.2.

( ).
,
. , 13.2,
13.1.
13.1.

11
21
12
13
23
14
24
34

11 21 12 13 23 14 24 34

1
1
1
1
1

.
, ,
,
.

,
.
,
,
(). : ,
, , , ,
, ,
.
114



. ,

, ,
.
,
,
, ,
.
. ,
,
.
,
.
,
(0) ,
(0) ,
= ( , , ).
, , ,
.
( . )
,
,
.
.

. . ,

(4 ) , - .
0.1 ,
0.0001,
.
115

 -
. = (, ) ,
, ,
+ :
1 = (, )

2 = ( + , + 1 )
2
2

3 = ( + , + 2 )
2
2
4 = ( + , + 3 )

= + (1 + 22 + 23 + 4 )
6

(13.1)

,
, .
, ,
.
1 , 2 .
, :
1 = 1 1
1 ( ).
,
1 ,
.
1
1 = 1 1 (1 )
1
, , .
1 = 1 1 1

1
1

1 1 2

(13.2)

1 .

, , ,
, .
2 = 2 2 1

2
2

+ 2 1 2

(13.3)

116

 -,
, ,
, .

1 (), 2 () 1 0 , 2 (0).
.
+1 .
1, = 1 ; 2, = 2 ;

1 1 = 1 (1, , 2, ); 1 2 = 2 (1, , 2, );

2 1 = 1 (1, +

3 1

= 1 1, +

1 1

2 1

, 2, +
, 2, +

1 2

2 2

); 2 2 = 2 (1, +

);

3 2

= 2 (1, +

1 1

2 1

, 2, +
, 2, +

1 2

2 2

);

);

4 1 = 1 (1, + 3 1 , 2, + 3 2 ); 4 2 = 2 (1, + 3 1 , 2, + 2 2 );
:
1

(1 + 22 1 + 23 1 + 4 1 )
6

+ (1 2 + 22 2 + 23 2 + 4 2 )
6

1 + = 1,+1 = 1, +
2 + = 2,+1 = 2,

( )
( ) ,
, ,
, 13.3.

13.3.
117

-
-
(). -
, ,
.
:
, ,
. ,
,
,
.
.
,
..
.
-
,
,
, ;
- ,
;
- ,

,
;
- ;
-
.

,
, .
,
.
()
, ()
118

 .
,
,
.
,

( ..

. // .
.: .: , 2011 - 7. - . 799-806).

.
, ,
, ,
13.4.

13.4.


.
-.
- ,

, ,
,
,
119

 . -
-
, .
:
,
-. -
,
,
.

- .
-
.
,
.

,
,
.
= (1 , 2 , , ) 1 2
D,
= 1 , 1 2 , 2 , , V
.

,
( ) =
, ,
0,

, D,
.
= (1 , 2 , , ) 1 2 .


: =

( 1 , 2 ,, )

1 2 = .

. ,
= 2 + 2, = 4 2 2.
,
,
.
120

 .
, .
4

y
x
2

13.5.
,
2, 2 2, 2 0, 4 , 64 (
, 2 ).
,
,
> 2 + 2

.
< 4 2 2
10 , 1962
. 0.1962
64, 12.5568.

2

2
2

0
0
0

= 4 = 12.56637 .

10
-
.

121


1) .. " : - "/
.. , .. . - .: - ..: . , 2010.
2) ..
: :
. - .: : -, 2013. - 448 .
3) , .. : / ..
. - .: .., 2002. - 840 .: .
4) .. : / .. , .. , .. ; .
.. . .: . 202. 368 .:.
5) ., . . CS, 3-
. : , , 2004.
6) .. "GPSS World.
" - .: , 2004.
7) .. .
. - .: , 2005.
8) ..
, / . . ..
, .. . . .. . - .: , 1986. 496 .
9) GPSS World. / /. : - " ", 2002. - 384 .
10) .. - :
/
-
"- ", 2008. - 101 .
11) . : . .: , 1978.
12) Banks J., J.S. Carson, B.L. Nelson, D.M. Nicol, "Discrete-Event System Simulation", 5th ed., Prentice Hall, Upper Saddle River, New Jersey, 2010.

122