______________ ..

______ ______________2007 .

140200 140205 " ",
" , , ,
, "

2007

 621.311.019.3
: ..
: , e. ..
: / .. :
-, 2007. .

.: .

" "

, 2007

.-. .

6084 1/16

...

100
"

-
620002, . , ., 19


..

1.

......................................................................................................................... 4
1.1.
.......................................................................................................................... 7
1.1.1.
.............................................................................. 8
1.1.2.
............................................................................ 12
1.1.3.
..................................................................................................... 17
1.2.
. ..................................................................... 17
2. ............................................................................................... 19
2.1.
............................................................................................................ 19
2.1.1.
......................................................................................... 21
2.1.2.
.................................................................................................................. 24
2.1.3.
................................................................................... 26
2.1.4.
m/n ................................................................................................................. 28
2.1.5.
........................................................................................................ 28
2.1.6.
...................................................................................... 29
2.1.7.
............................................................................................. 32
2.1.8.
.......................................................................................................... 34
2.1.9.
........................................................................................................................ 35
2.2.
- ............................................................................................................. 38
2.3.
................................................................................................. 41
2.4.
....................................................................................... 45
2.5.
...................................................................................................................................... 46

1.

. , , , ,
, .
.
, , , , .
. , .
,
, .
4

 , ,
.
, , , ( ) . ,
. , , .
, ,
.

. , .
, ( , , ( ,
, .) .
. ,
,
-
. , .
,
, , ,
.
5

 -
,
.
, , ,
, . .

. ,
, , , .

.
, , .. , . ,
. , .

(),
,
, , .
. , () ,
, .

.
. . ,
6

.
80- . ,

.
. . , . . , . . , . .
, . . , . . , .., . . , . .
, . . , ..,
..,
.., .

1.1.

. ,
. , . : () F(t), ( ) R(t)=1-F(t), () f(t)
(t ) = f(t)/R(t).
. 1.1.
1.1

F(t)

F(t)

f(t)dt

f(t)

R(t)
t

1-R(t)

f(t)dt

1-F(t)

1-F(t)

f(t)

d
F (t )
dt

d
F (t )
dt

d
R(t )
dt

1 exp (t ) dt
0

f(t)dt

x
exp (t ) dt

(t ) exp (t ) dt

R(t)

(t )

 (t )

F (t )
1 F (t )

f ( x)

R( x)

d
[ ln R(t ) ]
dt

f (t )

f(t) dt
t

1.1.1.

, , .
q(n, k ) k=0,1,,n n q

q(n, k ) = Cnk q k p n k ,
(1.1)
p=1-q - ;
n!
Cnk =
- n k.
k ! (n k )!
( p + q) n q
(q + p) n =

C nk q k p n k = 1 .

(1.2)

k =0

q (n, k ) = q (n, k 1)

n k +1 q
.
k
1 q

(1.3)

, , M=nq. D=npq.
1.2
q(n, k ) k 50 q =0,04 q=0,1.
k
Q(n, k ) = q(n, i) -
, k.

i =1

1.2

q=0,04

q=0,l

q(n, k )

Q(n, k )

q(n, k )

Q(n, k )

0,8443

0,8493

0,6561

0,6561

50

0,1416

0,9909

0,2916

0,9477

100

8,84710-3

0,9997

0,0486

0,9963

150

2,45810-4

0,999998

3,610-3

0,9999

200

2,56010-6

1, 10-4

, k= 1,
q=0,04 q(4,1) =
n=4
40,040,963 = 0,141558.
n=20
k= 2 q(4,2) =
n=40
n=60
60,0420,962 = 0,0088.
1.2
k
, q(n,k)
0
2
4
6
8
10
.
. 1.1. -
(.
1.1. ). , = nq D = npq ( ). , D 9 .
.
,
(n+1)q. ,
k. . 1.1. n=20 q=0,1 =int(210,1)=2,
n=40 =4. . ,
, ,
0,7
0,6
0,5
0,4
0,3
0,2
0,1
0

 , ,
( "n-1").
. q>n/(n+1), q(n, k ) ,
q<1/(n+1) (
q=0,04<1/5).
.

, (1.2):
N

i =1

( p i + q i ) ni =

ni

n k

k k
C ni q i p i i
i =1 k = 0

= 1.

(1.4)

,
i=1,, N ki
N

n ki

Q = Cni qi i pi i
i =1

(1.5)

1.1. 1 5 100 q1=0,1 ,

2 4 200 q1=0,08. 300 .
. 3 1,
3 3 2
1
4
1
3
1 2. Q = C5 q1 p1 + C5 q1 p1 C4 q2 p2 =
=100,130,92+(50,10,94)(40,080,923)=0,0898

q ,
,
. ,
P( x) =

x
x!

e .

: =D=. ( ) 10

 .
, :
= nq .

q(n, k )

(nq)k nq
e .
k!

1.3
(n= 20, q = 0,001 0,1).
1.3
q=0,001
k

q=0,1

0,980

0,980

0%

0,121

0,135

-11%

0,020

0,020

0%

0,270

0,271

0%

1,87E-04

1,96E-04

-5%

0,285

0,271

5%

1,12E-06

1,31E-06

-17%

0,190

0,1801

5%

4,77E-09

6,53E-09

-37%

0,09

0,090

0%

1,53E-11

2,61E-11

-71%

0,032

0,0361

-13%

3,82E-14

8,71E-14

-128%

0,009

0,0121

-36%

, . k ( k=20 1,6107 %),

,
50%
.
0%
k
,
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
-50%
-6

10
,
-100%

-150%
.

(. 1.2. ). -

. 1.2. -
11

 , , (,
, , ),
.
, . . ,
L {n j , q j , Pj , L j = n j q j , j = 1,..., L} ,
Pj - j, ,
:
F ( x) = ...
k1 k 2

kL

1k1 1k 2
k1 ! k 2 !

...

1k L
kL!

e ( 1 + 2 +...+ L ) ,

k j Pj < x .
j =1

(1.6)

ki i
. ,
, , (1.5). , .
1.1. 1=n1q1=50,1=0,5, 2=n2q2=40,08=0,32.
,
0.53 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.32 0.32 -0,5
Q=
e + e
e =e (0,53/6+0,50,32e -0,32) =0,083,
3!
1!
1!
1.1 (Q=0,0898) ( 7,5%).
,
.
1.1.2.

, , 1.4.

( 1.3),
,
.
12

 1.4

F ( x) =

f(x)

( x m) /

( x m) 2
exp
2 2
2

1
2

u2
exp du
2

R ( x) = exp(x)

R ( x) = exp (x)

(x)

F(x), R(x)

exp(x)

( x) 1 exp( ( x) )

(x) 1

(x ) 1 x
e
( )

F ( x ) = ( x , )

R( x) =

a 1

r =0

(x )

r!

e x

( x )
e x
(a 1)!
a 1

(x )a 1
a 1 ( x )r
(a 1)!
r!

1 / 2

x0

1/

1
1
1 +

x0

x0

a-
a>0

r =0

( ) = u

1 u

du -

-.

20.11.2007

13

-;

1 1 u
(t , ) =
u e du
( ) 0


(, )
(). , ,
. (
),
. ,
(,
.).
"
", , .
" " , 2, 4,6%, .
. , .
.

,
.

()
.
( ) . 1.4
x

R( x) = exp (t ) dt .
0

20.11.2007

14

 ,
(t) = =const. R(t ) = e t . ,
, .. , (,
, , , .).

( ,
, ). . . .


, , (. 1.3. ). : A - ( , ), (t)
, B - ( ), (t)const, C ,
(t) .

<1

>1

R ( x) = exp( ( x) ) . =1

C

. =1
t
, <1
, >1 . 1.3. -
.
-
20.11.2007

15


.

,

, a- a,
1.4

M = 1 / , D = 1 / 2 ( ),
, a- a .

. , a=1, , ,
.
,
. ,
f e* ( s) = /( + s) ,

f * ( s ) = ( /( + s ) ) = f e* ( s ) .
a

-
, ,
( .1.4 ). -, , - .
- ,
=1 . - 20.11.2007

16

. ,
.
,
-
.
1.1.3.

F1(x), F2(x)

F ( z) =

F1 ( z x) d F2 ( x) =

F2 ( z x) d F1 ( x) .

(1.7)

, ,
z, , ,
x ( dF1 ( x) ), z-x ( F2 ( z x) ).
:
f ( z) =

f 1 ( z x) f 2 ( x) dx =

f 2 ( z x) f 1 ( x) dx .

(1.8)

(1.7)
, .

(1.8), , , .
1.2.

i
.
. , Pi i Pi = Ti/T.,
fi=1/T,
fi = Pi/Ti.
fi i 20.11.2007

17

, f i = f ij . , f ij = ij Pi , j , j i
f i = f ij = Pi ij .
i i
i= Pi / fi= Ti = Pi / f i = 1 / ij ,
j i

. .
.
.
, , ,
, ,

I
.
. 1.4. ,
J
S

J.
i
j
(
):

J j J
, J:
. 1.4. - f J = f ji = P j ji .

jJ iJ

jJ

iJ

J i, J. iJ , i
, i j J
, J i.
f iJ = Pi iJ = f ij = Pi ij ;
jJ

f Ji = PJ Ji =
20.11.2007

jJ

f ji = P j ji .
jJ

jJ

18


iJ = ij ;
(1.9)
jJ

Ji = P j ji / P j .
jJ
jJ

(1.10)

, , .
, .
,

iI

IJ = f IJ / PI = f iJ / PI = Pi ij / Pi ;

JI = f JI / PJ = f jI
j j

iI jJ iI

/ PJ = P j ji / P j

jJ jJ jJ

(1.9), (1.10),
.

.
2.

, . ,
.
, [1417 .].
2.1.

. .

20.11.2007

19

 a a b b
a
,
b
- ab
ab
b
a
. b ab a
: . 2.1. -
, ,
,
- .
,
. . . . 2.1. , ab a b, a b - -
a b ..

,
: ; ( );
, ( ).

. , ,
.
, 20.11.2007

20

 , .
. ,
, , . , ,
.
2.1.1.

, ,
,

P'(t)=P(t)L;
(2.1)
Pi (t ) = 1,
(2.2)
P ( t ) - ; L , Lij = ij
i j Lii = ij .
j i

.

Hi, ,
t + t i. , t t ( ii) t j
t
i ( ji), j , ..
H i = H ii + H ji .
Hj Hi ji F (t ) = 1 e ij t , t

t=0: Pji = F (t ) ji t . Pij = F (t ) ij t
, , t j, t + t
20.11.2007

21

i, j j i Pji = Pj (t ) ji t .

Pi (t + t ) = Pi (t )(1 ij t ) + Pj (t ) ji t .
j i

j i

Pi (t + t ) Pi (t ) = ji Pj (t )t ,
j

(2.3)

ii = ij - j i

, .
t 0 (2.3) :
Pi' (t ) = ji Pj (t ) ,
j

(2.1).
, L ,
det L=0, ( ii = ij ).
j i

, ( ), . (2.2)

( ):
f
w
. 2.2.

. 2.1 . ( Pw (t )
Pf (t ) - ) , , .
. 2.2.
(2.1), (2.2):
Pw' (t ) = Pw (t ) + Pf (t );
Pw (t ) + Pf (t ) = 1.

Pf(t)
,
Pw' (t ) + ( + ) Pw (t ) = .
(2.4)
20.11.2007

22



Pw (t ) = C (t )e ( + )t .
(2.5)
(2.10)
(2.4), C(t):
C ' (t )e ( + )t C (t )( + )e ( + )t + C (t )( + )e ( + )t =
C ' (t )e ( + )t =
C (t ) =

e ( + )t + C1

( + )t

Pw (t ) =
e
+ C1e ( + )t
+ C1 e ( + )t =
+

Pw (0) = 1 , ( ), C1 =

Pw (t ) =

e ( + )t ;

( + )t

Pf (t ) = 1 Pw (t ) =
e
.
+ +

(2.6)

.
, . =2
. . ,
3- .
. . 2.3. .

. 2.3. .
=1/=0,5 (1/).

L=

20.11.2007

0
1
2

0
-

23

 :
P0' (t ) = P0' (t ),
'
'
P1 (t ) = P0 (t ) P1 (t ),

P0 (t ) + P1 (t ) + P2 (t ) = 1

, P0 (t ) = e t .
P1' (t ) + P1 (t ) e t = 0 .
(2.7)

P1 (t ) = C (t )e t

(2.8)

(2.8) (2.7),
P1' (t ) = C (t )e t C (t )e t + C (t )e t e t = (C (t ) )e t = 0 .

C (t ) = t
P1 (t ) = te t

t=3

P0 (3) = e 1.5 =0,223;

P1 (3) = 0,5 3 e 1,5 =0,335;

2(3)=1-0,223- 0,335=0,442.

.
G(, ) , -

(=0,5) . (
). =2. =1/ = 2. 2(3)=G(3,2,2)=0,442. !
. . ,
.
. 3(6)=0,577.

,
, .
2.1.2.

, , , . .
() . ,
20.11.2007

24


(2.1)

(2.1)
(2.9)
Lt = 0,
, .
(2.10)
Pj (t ) = 1 .
(! .).

L=

-(a+b)

-(b+ a)

-(a+b)

-( a+ b)

, - :
-(a+b) P0 + a P1+b P2 =0;
a P0 -(b+ a) P1+b P3=0;
(2.11)
b P0 -(a+b) P 2+ a P3=0;
b P1+a P2-( a+ b) P3=0
, ,
P0 + P1+ P2+P3=1.
. 2.2. (2.11) -

: a=b=1, a+ b=10. ,
()

2.1.
2.1

-2
10
10
0
1
-11
0
10
1
0
-11
10
1
1
1
1

0
0
0
1

0,826446
0,082645
0,082645
0,008264

(2.11)
P0= a b/(a+ a) (b +b)=b;
P1=a b/(a+ a) (b +b)=b;
20.11.2007

25

P2=b a /(a+ a) (b +b)=b;

P3=a b /(a+ a) (b +b)=b,
i = i/(i+i), i = i/(i+i)- i.

=10/(1+10)= 0,909, =10/(1+10)=0,091.
, .
i (2.9)
(2.12)
Pi (t ) ij = Pj (t ) ji .
j i

j i

f ij = Pi (t )ij
j.
i (2.9)
(2.12)
Pi (t ) ij = Pj (t ) ji .
j i

j i

i: f ij = f ji (
j i

j i

). (2.9). ,
1 ( a b )
f10 + f13 = f 01 + f 31 , P1(10 + 13) = P001 + P331
P1 (a + b ) = P0 a + P3b , (2.11).
2.1.3.

- , (2.3).
(. ! .). :
Pw (t ) = Pf (t ) Pf (t ) = Pw (t ) , = / =

. (2.2)

Pw(t) = K =1/(1+ ); Pf (t) = K = /(1+ ) .

20.11.2007

26

. 2.4. -
, :
1 P0 = 1 P1;
2 P2=2 P1.
P0 + P1+ P2 =1;

P2=(2/ 2)P1. =2 P1.

P1= 1 P0.
n

nPn-1.= nP n.

(2.13)

Pn= n Pn-1.

(n +n-1) Pn-1.= n-1P n-2 +nP n. P n-2.
(2.13), Pn-1= n-1 Pn-2.
,

Pj= j Pj-1.

(2.14)

, Pj
(2.15)
j =j/j=Kj/Kj,
j.
, Pj . , Pj = 1 , , , :

20.11.2007

27

Pj = P0 k =
=1

=1
n s

1+ k
s =1 =1

2.1.4. m/n

. ( ), (
)
. ,
m .

n1

(n-1)2
2

(n-m+1)m

. 2.5.
i = (n i + 1)i / i , i = 1,..., n m + 1 = 1 .
Pi = i Pi 1 , i = 1,..., m .

m

Pn m =

j =1
m s

1+ j

s =1 j =1

= m

m

Pn m =

j =1
m s

1+ j
s =1 j =1

2.1.5.

n . , , .
n ().. , .
().

20.11.2007

28

A0

A1

n+1
An

. 2.6.
A1: 1 P0 =2 P1; P1=(1/ 2)/P0;
A2: 2 P1 =3 P2; P2=(2 /3)/P1=(1 /3)/P0;
Pi= (1 /i+1)/P0;
Ps =

1
n +1

s +1 (1 / i )
i =1

2.1.6.

. 2.7. -

( , .
2.7, ) : A0 -
A0 i i Ai
; Ai - i, i = 1,, (An
),

A0
A
, . .
. 2.8. - .

.
, + 1
(. 2.8). ,
:
Pi = i P0 , i = 1,..., n ; P0 + Pi = 1 ,
A1

20.11.2007

29

 i = i / i = i i
.
n

Pj = j / 1 + i , j = 1,..., n .
i =1

P0 = K = 1 / 1 + i ;
i =1

:
P0 = 1 / (1 + ); P = / (1 + ) .

. ,
n

1 / (1 + ) = 1 /1 + i
i =1

= i

i =1

(2.16)

,
. ,
.
, .

.
,
K = K a K b =

1
1
=
(1 + a )(1 + b ) (1 + )

(2.17)

= a + b + a b

(2.16) a b . , ,
. , , ,
(2.16). 20.11.2007

30

 .
(2.17) , << 1 .
Ai , i = 1,..., n
- , ,
,
n
= i .
(2.18)
i =1

(2.16) i ,
i i , (2.18) , :
n
n
= i i / i .
i =1
i =1

,
i i ,
.

.
n
n
f = P0 i = f i .
i =1

i =1

(
) , .
1.5. . ,
, :
= 1 + 2 + 3 , = 1 + v2 + 3 ; - = / ;
= 1 / ; : K = 1 /(1 + ) ,
K = K 1 K 2 K 3 .
2.2

1 ()
2 (-.)
3 (-.)

20.11.2007

, 1/
1
0,1
0,1
1,2

, /
-3
10
-3
310
-3
310
-3
1,3310

=1/, 1/
3
10
3
(1/3) 10
3
(1/3) 10
3
0,752 10

31

=, ..
-3
10
-3
0,310
-3
0,310
-3
1,610

=1/(1+), ..
0,999
0,9997
0,9997
0,9984

2.1.7.

n . , ( ).

. 2.1.2. , .

n
K = K i .
(2.19)
i =1

n
. 2.9, 0 ,
f- , i - i
, i - i .
f
n
( , = i ):
i =1

f = K i .
i =1

1
0

i i

n n

1s

1s

1 1

ij

ij

nk

nk

1
i i 1

n n

. 2.9. -

(1.10)


20.11.2007

32


= Pj jf
j f

/ Pj =

j f

K K
.
P
j f

j
s j

j f

,
Pw = K = Pf .

K
K

= i ,

(2.16) .
.
. (2.19) b,
K =

a
b
=
1+ 1+ a 1+ b

1
1
.
=
1 + 1 / (1 + 1 / a )(1 + 1 / b )

1/ = 1/ a + 1/ b + 1/ a b .

,
=

a b
1+ a + b

<<1 , :
= ab .
, ( ), = i ,
= 1 / = 1 i .

, . 1.6. . 20.11.2007

33

 K = K 1 K 2 ; -
= 1 + 2 ;
= 1/ ;

= K /(1 K ) ; :
= / . f=K=0,4992510-62103=0,998510-3
2.3

1
2

, (1/)
1
0,5
0,998510-3

, /
10-3
10-3
0,510-3

=1/,(1/)
103
103
2103

=, ..
10-3
0,510-3
0,4992510-3

=/(1+), ..
0,99910-3
0,4997510-3
0,4992510-6

2.1.8.

, {Bi , i = 1,..., n}
n

{Qi , i = 1,..., n} Qi = 1 ,
i =1

P( A) = Qi P( A / Bi ) .

(2.20)

i =1

-
1 1
B1

W1
A/B1
1

, (2.20) i i
Bi
Wi
A/Bi
i
,
. 2.10, i, i, i, n n
Bn
A/Bn
Wn

n
Wi, Bi . 2.10. -
/Bi.

(Wi /Bi.) Qi , P(Wi)= Qi /(1 + i ) , ,

Bi
Q
P ( A / Bi ) = i P(Wi ) = i i = K i Qi .
A

1+ i

20.11.2007

34

i
Qi
i =1 1 + i

f ( A) = i K i Qi =
i =1

( )
n

( A) = f ( A) / P ( A) =

K
i

i =1
n

K
i =1

Qi

Qi

( )
n

( A) = f ( A) / P( A) =

K
i

i =1

Qi

1 K i Qi

i =1

2.1.9.

, - . , , ,
(. 2.11),
, .
a

x
b
a)

b)

. 2.11. -
A

(. .
2.11, )) (. . 2.11, b), c))
x
x
( . 2.11, )). x
,
0 0
A/B0
B0
. 0

.
2.10.
. 2.12. . ,

. 2.11
B1

20.11.2007

1 A/B
1
1

35

 . 2.12, , (. . 2.11, b)),

, (. . 2.11, c)).
. 2.12
(. 2.1.3). :
(/1)= 1(/0);
(0)=1/(1++0+1);. (1)= (/0);
(/0)= 0(/0).
f=(0 + 1 )(0).
: =(0 + 1 )/(1+).
=(00 +1 1) (0 + 1)=
=( 0 + 1) (0 + 1).
. . 2.11, ), ,
:
=1; =10; =0,1;
=0,0909.
(. 2.11, b)
:
=1-0,00826=0,9917;
=20;
=0,09092=0,00826;
f=0,0082620=0,1652;
=f / =0,1652/0,9917=0,1666; = /.= 0,1666/20=0,00833.
:
0=2=2*0,1666= 0,3332; 0 = 2 =2*0,00833=0,0167; 0.= 0/ 0
=0,33/0,0167=20;
. 2.11, ):
:
=2=2; =2=2 0,1=0,2;=/=2/0,2=10.
:
= [ /(1+ )]2 =[0,2/(1+ 0,2)]2 =0,02778; =1- =0,972;
1=2=20; f= 1=0,5556; 1= f/ =0,556/0,972= 0,5715; 1 =
1/1= 0,5715/20=0,02855

+0+1).

(0)=1/(1+
=1/(1+0,1+0,01666+0,1*0,02855)=0,8932

Pf=(0)(0+1)=
0,8932*(0,01666+0,1*0,02855)=0,01743
=0,8932*1,1=0,9825
f=(0 + 1 )(0)=( 0,3332+0,1 0,5714)*0,8932=0,
3487
20.11.2007

36


:
=(0+1)/(1+)=(0,3332+0,1*0,5714)/(1+0,1)=0,3549

+
1)
/(0
+
=(0
1)=(0,3332+0,1*0,5714)/(0,01666+0,1*0,02855)=20,002.
(.0)

:
( Q0=1/(1+0,1)=0,909)
( Q1=0,1/(1+0,1)=0,091).
0 0 =0,01666/(1+0,01666)=
0,01639;
1=0,02778.

()= 0 Q0+ 1 Q1=0,01639*0,909+0,02778*0,091=0,01743.
( )
( A) = (00 Q0+11Q1)/()= 20*0,01743/0,01743=20.

,
. .

20.11.2007

37

2.2. -

.
: , 1 . 0 .
. ( -
),
.
( )
, .
,

. , - , 2 > 5 . () (). , : . , = 1; , = 0.

( ).
. , - ( =
1) ( = 0). ,
(1 0), . , .
- . ,
(1 0) ,
().

: , () ().
(), (F) 2.4.
20.11.2007

38

 2.4
A
T (1)
T (1)
F (0)
F (0)

B
T(1)
F (0)
T (1)
F (0)

Not A

F (1 = 0)
F (0)
T ( 0 = 1)
T (1)

A And B ( ( A B )
T (1 1 = 1)
F (1 0 = 1 )
F ( 0 1 = 1)
F (0 0 = 0)

A Or B
T
T
T
F

( ). x x (: x). x 1 = 0; 0 = 1.
( ).
1 2 x1 x2 1 + 2
( 1 2).
,
. , - :
0 0 = 0; 0 1 = 1; 1 0 = 1; 1 1 = 1 .
( ). 1 2 x1 x2 12 ( 1 2).
, .
, -
:
0 0 = 0; 0 1 = 0; 1 0 = 0; 1 1 = 1 .
:
x 1 = x; x + 1 = 1; x 0 = 0; x + 0 = 0;

x x = x; x + x = x; x x = 0; x + x = 1.

() :
x1 ( x2 x3 ) = ( x1 x2 ) x3 = x1 x2 x3 ;

.
x1 + ( x2 + x3 ) = ( x1 + x2 ) + x3 = x1 + x2 + x3 .

() :
x1 x2 = x2 x1 ; x1 + x2 = x2 + x1 .
() :
x1 ( x2 + x3 ) = ( x1 x2 ) + ( x1 x3 );
.
x1 + ( x2 x3 ) = ( x1 + x2 )( x1 + x3 ).

:
( x1 x2 ) = x1 + x2 ; ( x1 + x2 ) = x1 x2 .

20.11.2007

39

x1 + ( x1 , x2 ,..., xn ) + x1 = x1 + (0, x2 ,..., xn );

x1 ( x1 , x2 ,..., xn ) = x1 (1, x2 ,..., xn ).

(2.21)

x1 + ( x1 x2 ) = x1 ; x1 ( x2 + x1 ) = x1 .

( x1 x2 ) + ( x1 x2 ) = x1 x2 + x1 x2 = x1 + ( x2 + x2 ) = x1 1 = x1 ;
.
( x1 x2 ) + ( x1 x2 ) = x1 x2 + x1 x2 = x2 + ( x1 + x1 ) = x2 1 = x2 .

. 2.13

(2.21). , . 2.13, ) s = x1 + ( x2 ( x1 + x2 ( x3 + x4 )) ,

s = x1 + ( x2 ( x1 + x2 ( x3 + x4 ))) = x1 + ( x2 (0 + 1( x3 + x4 ))) = x1 + ( x2 ( x3 + x4 )) ,
. 2.13, ).
(2.22)
(2.22)
r
Z( X ),
xi.
2
1

20.11.2007

40

. 2.14. -

(
) ()
Z=x1x2 ( );
Z=x1+x2 (
).

, , . , , .
3.4 ,

(. 3.4 ),
Z 3 = x12 x23 + x14 x43 + x14 x42 x23 + x12 x24 x43 ,
(2.23)
,
Z 3 = x1 x12 x2 x23 x3 + x1 x14 x4 x43 x3 + x1 x14 x4 x42 x2 x23 x3 + x1 x12 x2 x24 x4 x43 x3 ,
,
- .
2.3.

(2.23) , Z3
() ,
() .
, ,
().
.
V ,
. ()
()
() .
,
, . ,
20.11.2007

41



. {1,2} . 2.13
. , 2 . {2,3} ,
.
C ,
( ) .
, ,
(
).
????
. {1,2,3} . 2.13
, , 3
.
{1,2} ,

.
vi , , Vi , i , ,
i . , , . s s
s = v1 v2 ... vn ; s = k1 k 2 ... k n .
, s
{ti } , s - {ci } .
, vi ti , vi = {ti ( z1 ... z m ) .
s
t i vi = t i {t i ( z1 ... z m ) = t i {0 ( z1 ... z m ) = t i ,
.. .
.
20.11.2007

42

 . 2.15.
:
t1={e1,e4}; t2={e2,e5}; t3={e1,e3,e5}; t4={e2,e3,e4} ( . 2.16) 1= 14, 2= 25, 3=
135, 4=135. Z = t1 t 2 t3 t 4 .
1

4
3

. 2.15. -
1

5
a)

5
b)

. 2.16. - : ; b
.

P(Z)= 1+ 2+ 3+ 4- P (t1, t2) - P (t1, t3) - P (t1, t4) - P (t2, t3) - P
(t2, t4) - P (t3, t4)+ P (t1, t2, t3) + P (t1, t2, t4) + P (t1, t3, t4) + P (t2, t3, t4) - P
(t1, t2, t3, t4)=
= 1+2+3+4 - P (e1,e2,e4,e5) - P (e1,e4,e3,e5) - P (e1,e2,e3,e4) -P
(e1,e2,e3,e5) - P(e2,e3,e4,e5) + 2 P (e1,e2,e3,e4,e5)=
= 14 + 25 + 135 + 135 - p1p2p4p5 - p1p4p3p5 - p1p2p3p4 -p1p2p3p5 p2p3p4p5 + 2p1p2p3p4p5.
P (Z)= 22 + 23 - 5p4 + 2p5. ,
=0,9091 ( . 2.1.9) P (Z)= 0,9823 ( 0,9826
).

: s1={e1,e2};
s2={e4,e5}; s3={e1,e3,e5}; s4={e2,e3,e4} ( . 2.16) Q1= q1q2, Q2= q4q5, Q3= q1q3q5, Q4=q1q3q5.
Z = s1 s2 s3 s4 .
20.11.2007

43


P ( Z ) = Q1+ Q2+ Q3+ Q4-P(s1, s2) - P (s1, s3) - P (s1, s4) - P (s2, s3)
- P (s2, s4) - P (s3, s4)+ P (s1, s2, s3) + P (s1, s2, s4) + P (s1, s3, s4) + P (s2,
s3, s4) - P (s1, s2, s3, s4)=
= Q1+ Q2+ Q3+ Q4 - P (e1,e2,e4,e5) - P (e1,e2,e3,e5) - P (e1,e2,e3,e4) - P
(e1,e3, e4,e5) - P (e2,e3,e4,e5) + 2 P (e1,e2,e3,e4,e5)=
= q1q2 + q4q5 + q1q3q5 + q1q3q5 - q1q2q4q5 - q1q2q3q5 - q1q2q3q4 -q1q3q4q5 q2q3q4q5 + 2q1q2q3q4q5.
q
P ( Z ) = 2q2+2q3-5q4+2q5. q=0,0909 P
( Z ) =0,0177 ( 0,0174 ), P
(Z)=1-0,0177=0,9823. , .

20.11.2007

44

2.4.

. 2.17, =1; =10; =0,1; q==0,0909.

2

a
1

3
d

b
4
a)

a
1

b
b)

3
1

c)

y
4
d)

. 2.17. - .

1. 3 (. 2.17, b). c,d f
qf= qc+qd- qc qd =2*0,0909-0,0909^2=0,1735.
2. e, f.
qg = qeqf =0,0909*0,1735=0,01577.
3 4 (. 2.17, c). b,g h
qh= qb+qg- qb qg =0,0909+0,01577-0,0909*0,01577=0,1052.
4. a, h.
q2 = qaqh =0,0909*0,1052= 0,00956
.
1. 4 2 (. 2.17, b). q4 = q2 = 0,00956.

( ).
2. 3 (. 2.17, d).
x, y:
q4=qy*(qx+qw- qxqw);
q2=qx*(qy+qw- qyqw),
qw=q+qd- qcqd) =0,1735;

q4-q2=qy*(qx+qw- qxqw) - qx*(qy+qw- qyqw)= (qy- qx) qw
20.11.2007

45


qy = qx +R = qx +(q4-q2)/qw
q4= (qx +R) *(qx+qw- qxqw)= qx2(1-qw)+ qx (qw + R- Rqw)+ Rqw.

R=(q4-q2)/qw=0.
q4

qx2(1-qw)+ qxqw- q4 = 0,8265qx2+0,1735qx- 0,00956=0

qx=0,04532 qx=-0,2552.

. R=0 qy = qx =0,04532.

,
q3 =(qx +qc - qx qc) (qy +qd qy qd)=( 0,04532+0,09090,04532*0,0909)^2= =0,01745 - (0,01743), .2.1.9
2.5.

. 1 2.
. 2.18., a.
2.5.

3
4

2
a)

b)

. 2.18. .
2.5 .

20.11.2007

1
2
1
2
1
2
46

, 1/ , ..
1
2
0,5
0,6
0,5
0,1
0,5
0,2

.
1. . 3, 4, 3
1 2,
,
"". , , . . 2.18., b.
2. 2 1 1 1,
1.
2,= (1+ 1)1+ 1=(1+0,5)*0,1+0,5=0,6 5/.

1,= 2+ 2)2+ 2=(2+0,6)*0,2+0,5=1,02/.

1 2. .
2.19. a. 2.6

1
2

5
6

3
3

2
3

a)

b)

. 2.19. .
2.6 .

20.11.2007

1
2, 3
1
2 3
4
1, 4
2, 3
1
47

, 1/ , ..
1
2
0,5
0,6
0,4
0,5
0,1
0,5
0,2
0,1

.
1. . 5, 6, 5 2
, "".
. 2.19. , b.
2. , 2 1 1
1, 1.
, ,
3 3
3, 3.
,
1/.

2,= (1+ 1)1+ 1+(3+ 3)3+ 3=0,6 5+1,02=1,67

1,= 2+ 2)2+ 2+(3+ 3)3+ 3=2*1,02=2,04 1/.

1,*=0,6 5 2,*=1,02 1/. , 1
4 4.
(1,*+
2,*
+1+4)4+
4
=(0,6
3,=
5+1,02+0,1+0,4)*0,1+0,5=0,717 1/.

(
)
, , 1 (. 2.20). () ,
: ,
, . , , " ".

20.11.2007

48

1
1

1
11
21 22 23
1 2 3

3
5

12

13

14

. 2.20.

(). , ,
, .
. 2.21.
,
.

. 2.21.

(. 2.20) 1
( F) F= 2+ 3+ 22+ 23+ V222+ V233+ V2(1+ 1)+
+V3(4+T2+ 12+V124 +V4(2+ 5+ V5(6 +T3 + 13+ V135 +
+ V6(7 +T4 + 14+ V146+ V7(8 +3))))), i
( , )
i, Vi i

m/n
20.11.2007

49


. , . . .
, m/n . . 2.22 , 250 .
480
.
q,

q3. , k n

P (k / n) = Cnk q k p n k , p=1-q
(. 2.22) Q = P(3 / 3) + P (2 / 3) , . P(2 / 3) = 3q 2 p . ,
,
, .

. 2.22

m/n (. 2.23). n-i, (i=1,,n-m+1)

j
j i
Pn i = Pn j =
.
n m +1

j i
1+ k
s =1

k s

e =

mPm
n

Pi

; e = (n m + 1)

i=m

20.11.2007

50

n
n

(n-1)

n-1

2
2

m-1

(n-m+1)

. 2.23 m/n

.
(. 2.22).
=1, =10.
. 2.24
3
1

2
2

2
2

. 2.24 2/3

1=3/=0,3; 2=2/2=0,1. :
P3 =

1
1
=
= 0,752; P2 = P3 1 = 0,226; P1 = P2 2 = 0,0226 .
1 + 0,3 + 0,3 0,1 1,33

e=2=20.
e =

2P2
2 0,226
=
= 0,462 .
P3 + P2 0,752 + 0,226

f = (P3 + P2 )e = 0,978 0,462 = 0,452

f = P1e = 0,0226 20 = 0,452

20.11.2007

51


1. .. . .: ,
1984.
2.

. . .: , 1983.

3.

.. : , 2002.

20.11.2007

52

20.11.2007

53