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Snowball Dropper
Welcome to Snowball Dropper, the amazing, winter-themed game based solely on the
rules of probability! This game requires no skill, is appropriate for all ages, and gives out up to
three different cash prizes. Snowball Dropper will be used as a fundraiser; therefore, all the
money produced will be given to a virtuous cause. So step right up and test your luck!
Description, Rules & Directions:
The player must drop the snowball into the bucket and depending on where the snowball
lands, they might win a prize, see Figure 1 for diagram of bucket.
To play Snowball Dropper, the player must pay the operator $0.50 and drop the snowball
into the bucket. If the snowball lands on the ice, then the operator does not give a prize; however,
if the snowball lands on the snow, the operator will lose $0.50 (excluding the price earned from
players admission). In order for the player to win a prize, the snowball must land in a red or
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green hole. The operator will lose $1.00 to the player (excluding admission price) when the
snowball lands in a green hole or $2.00 (excluding admission price) when it lands in a red hole.
If the snowball does not land in the bucket at all, then the player is allowed however many drops
until the snowball lands in the bucket. To play again, the player must simply remove the
snowball from the bucket and rotate the bucket clockwise before re-dropping. The rules are
simple: the player must close their eyes while dropping the snowball and the snowball must be
dropped at least half a foot above the top of the bucket (a six inch indicator will be available).
Theoretical Probability I:
An area probability model was used to determine the probabilities of each event. These
events include landing on: ice, snow, green, and red. First, the area of each outcome was found.
Figure 2 below shows the diameter of all the circles in the setup; these measurements are
essential for finding the individual areas. The calculations following Figure 2 demonstrate the
steps taken to find the probability of each event.
Figure 2. Diameters
Figure 2 shows the diameter of each circle, the green circles are the same size and as well
as the red circles.
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22.5
2
= 11.25
a = r2
a = 11.252
total area = 397.6078 cm 2
Figure 3. Total Area
The entire area of the set up is calculated above in Figure 3.
14.5
2
= 7.25
a = r2
a = 7.252
a = 165.1300 cm 2
397.6078 - 165.1300 = 232.4779
area of ice = 232.4779 cm 2
Figure 4. Area of Ice
Figure 4 shows how the area of the ice was found. The area of the inner circle, the snow
plus the green and red circles, was found then subtracted from the total area.
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5
2
= 2.5
a = r2
a = 2.52
area of green hole = 19.6350 cm 2
Figure 5. Area of Green Hole
Figure 5 shows how the area was calculated for the green hole; the areas are the same for
both green holes.
3
2
= 1.5
a = r2
a = 1.52
area of red hole = 7.0686 cm 2
Figure 6. Area of Red Hole
Figure 6 shows how the area was calculated for the red hole; the areas are the same for
both red holes.
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P(ice) =
232.4779
397.6098
P(ice) = 0.5847
P(snow) =
111.7228
397.6098
P(snow) = 0.2810
P(green) =
2( 19.6350)
397.6098
P(green)= 0.0988
P(red) =
2( 7.0686)
397.6098
P(red) = 0.0356
0.0356 + 0.0988 + 0.2810 + 0 .5847 1
Figure 8. Determining Probabilities
The probabilities above were found by dividing the area of each event over the total area
of the setup. The green and red areas were multiplied by two because only one hole for each
event was accounted for. See Table 1 for probability chart.
Table 1
Theoretical Probabilities
Event
Ice
P(Event)
0.5847
Snow
0.2810
Green
0.0988
Red
0.0356
From these probabilities shown in Table 1, it is apparent that the event in which the
operator will make $0.50, when the snowball lands on the ice, is more likely than the other
outcomes.
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0.00
0.2810
-0.50
0.0988
-1.50
0.0356
Table 2 shows the probabilities for each possible value that the operator can make.
Essentially, this table is the same as Table 1; however, the events are replaced with the possible
cost values, regardless, the probabilities stayed the same. The operator can lose up to $1.50 or
$0.50, as shown above, but these outcomes are not very likely. This means that the operator does
not have to worry about losing money.
(0.50 0.5847) + (0.00 0.2810) + (-0.50 0.0988) + (-1.50 0.0356)
= 0.1896
= $0.19
Figure 10. Expected Value
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Figure 10 shows how the expected value was calculated. For every game that is
played, the operator is expected to earn approximately $0.19.
Relative Frequencies:
Simulation 1:
To run simulation 1, Snowball Dropper was played 50 times following the directions
and rules previously described.
Snow
0.32
Green
0.20
Red
0.08
Table 3 shows the events' relative frequencies in simulation 1. These were found by
dividing each events frequency by 50. The relative frequencies are a bit off from the theoretical
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probabilities; however, this is understandable because only 50 trials were run and by Law of
Large Numbers, these relative frequencies should become closer to the theoretical probabilities.
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Nspire software, 500 random integers were produced from 1 to 100. The frequency for each
event was counted and recorded in appropriate columns. See Figure 14 for Ti-Nspire set up and
Table 4 below for relative frequencies.
Snow
0.2720
Green
0.0980
Red
0.0420
The table above shows the relative frequencies for each event in simulation 2. These
were found by dividing each events frequency by 500. It is apparent that the experimental
probabilities in simulation 2 are considerably closer to the theoretical probabilities than the ones
found in simulation 1.
(294 0.50) + (136 0.00) + (49 -0.50) + (21 -1.50)
= $91.00
Figure 15. Total Money Earned from Simulation 2
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The money raised from simulation 2 was $91.00. This value was calculated by
multiplying each event's frequency by the cost of that event and finding the sum of those
products.
(0.5880 0.50) + (0.2720 0.00) + (0.0980 -0.50) + (0.0420 -1.50)
= $0.18
Figure 16. Expected Value from Simulation 2
The expected outcome for the operator per game according to simulation 2 is a $0.18.
The expected value for simulation 2 was found by calculating the sum of the simulation 2
relative frequencies multiplied by their costs.
Simulation 3:
A java program was written in order to simulate 5,000 games of Snowball Dropper.
The code was written so that 5,000 random integers would be produced from 1 to 100. Like
simulation 2, the range 1-58 represented ice, 59-86 represented snow, 87-96 represented green,
and 97-100 represented landing on red. The program calculated the frequency of each outcome
and multiplied that frequency to the events corresponding cost, the sum of the products was then
found to determine the total money earned from this simulation. In order to calculate the relative
frequencies, each events frequency was divided by 5,000. The relative frequencies were printed
out in a table. The expected value was found by setting the relative frequencies to new variables.
Those new variables were multiplied by the events corresponding costs; the products were then
totaled to an expected value. The outcomes of these calculations were printed out in the program
below in Figure 17.
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Overall, the three simulations produced relative frequencies that were fairly close to
the theoretical probabilities, with the exception of simulation 1 being a bit off. This may have
been due to biased droppings and the fact that a small number of trials were run compared to the
other simulations. Simulation 3 obviously had the most money raised, $919.00, because there
were more trials that were run, followed by Simulation 2 with $91.00. Simulation 1 actually lost
money to the player by $1.00. The expected values were also very close in simulations 2 and 3,
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both were approximately $0.18 compared to the theoretical expected value $0.19. However in
simulation 1, the operator was expected to lose $0.02. The Law of Large Numbers is
demonstrated in these simulations because as the number of trials increased, the relative
frequencies became closer to the theoretical probabilities, shown from the difference among
simulation 1, 2, and 3.
Summary:
Snowball Dropper is great game and money-maker for many reasons. First of all, the
game is quick, easy to play, and appropriate for all ages; this attracts a greater range of players
and allows more people to play. In addition, the game is very cheap compared to most carnival
games. It might cost anywhere from $2.00 to $10.00 to play a typical carnival game, whereas
Snowball Dropper only costs $0.50 to play. The cheap admission price additionally contributes to
the games attraction. Finally, although the game may look fair to its players, it is actually in
favor of the operator, who is expected to earn $0.18 per game. The simulation results, with the
exception of simulation 1, showed that the operator continuously earned more than what the
player won. In simulation 2, with only 500 trials, $91.00 was raised, and in simulation 3 with
5,000 trials, $919.00 was raised. This proves further that Snowball Dropper is an effective and
smart choice for the fundraiser.