Experimental vs.

Theoretical Probability Lesson Plan

Objectives: Students will learn how to calculate both experimental and theoretical probability
and compare the results by conducting an experiment using a bag of marbles.
Entry Characteristics: Students will have already had an introduction to theoretical probability
and will now learn how to calculate experimental probability.
Procedures:
I. Introduce lesson using referencing carnival games and likelihood of winning, i.e. if you
pick a red marble you win a prize.
II. Have students break into groups of two; hand out bags of marbles and tables
III. Explain the experiment; one person picks marbles, while the documents color
IV. Display results on the board, list each groups experimental and theoretical probability
results
V. Have students compare findings of the experiment.
Experiment:
1.) We are conducting an experiment to see how the results compare to what is expected
to happen by our mathematical calculations (theoretical probability.)
2.) Each group has a different bag of marbles. The amount of marbles and color
combinations vary. We want to see how many times, out of 25 trials, an orange
marble is picked from the bag.
3.) One student will pick a marble while the other documents the color on the table
provided. The marble is returned to the bag after each drawing.
4.) When we are finished, we will list our findings and compare each groups
experimental and theoretical probabilities of the orange marble being picked from
each bag.
Resources and Materials: Five bags of marbles, Data Table, Comparison Chart,
Results/Homework Sheet
Follow-up: Students will be required to conduct their own experiment and compare the
experimental probability to the theoretical probability and discuss the findings.
Modifications: Pair lower-level learners with higher-level learners.
CCSSM: 7.SP.6- Approximate the probability of a chance event by collecting data on the chance
process that produces it and observing its long-run relative frequency, and predict the
approximate relative frequency given the probability.

SCRIPT

Theoretical Probability vs. Experimental Probability

I.

Display comparison on overhead. Pose question: We learned how to calculate

probability mathematically yesterday (theoretical probability), but what would
happen if these events took place in real life? Introduce Experiment. We will be
comparing math calculations with experiment results.

II.

Break class into five groups of 2. Pass out one bag of marbles, table, and
results/homework sheet to each group.

III.

Explain experiment:
We are conducting an experiment to see how the results compare to what is
expected to happen by our mathematical calculations (theoretical
probability.)
Each group has a different bag of marbles. The amount of marbles and color
combinations vary. We want to see how many times, out of 25 trials, an
orange marble is picked from the bag.
One student will pick a marble while the other documents the color on the
table provided. The marble is returned to the bag after each drawing.
When we are finished, we will list our findings and compare each groups
experimental and theoretical probabilities of the orange marble being picked
from each bag.

1.)

2.)

3.)
4.)

IV.

Draw results chart on board while students complete experiment trials. Walk around
and see if anyone needs help.

V.

Have each group state its findings and observe other groups' results, as I fill the in the
chart on the board. Students will fill the results into the chart on the
results/homework sheet. Discuss. Explain Law of Large Numbers (the more trials
you do, the closer you will get to theoretical probability)

Students will write down their observations for homework.

Theoretical Probability:

Experimental Probability:

WHAT IS EXPECTED TO HAPPEN

THE RESULTS OF AN EXPERIMENT

The probability that is calculated

using math formulas, based on
math theory

The probability that is found when

repeating an experiment and
observing the outcomes

P(A)=

number of favorable outcomes

total number of possible outcomes

P(A)=

number of event occurs

total number of trials

Group 1:
6321-

Orange
Blue
Green
Yellow

Theoretical Probability of Picking an Orange Marble:

P(Orange)= ____________

_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Experimental Probability Table

O
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
1
0.
1
1.
1
2.
1
3.
1
4.
1
5.
1
6.
1
7.
1
8.
1
9.
2
0.
2
1.
2
2.
2
3.

2
4.
2
5.

Experimental Probability of Picking an Orange Marble:

Results and Homework
Ms. Annunziata

P(Orange)= ___________
Name__________________________

GROUP RESULTS:

GROU GROU
P1
P
2

GROU GROU
P3
P
4

GROU
P
5

Theoretical
Probability

Experimenta
l Probability

1.) Review the results of the group findings from todays lesson. Compare the results of both
the experimental and theoretical probabilities and discuss your findings. Were the results
surprising to you?

2.) We know that the theoretical probability of rolling a 6 on a regular game die is 1/6, or
about 17%. Conduct an experiment of your own. Roll one die 25 times and see how

many times you roll a 6. Are your results close to 17%? Now, roll another 25 times (to
total 50 rolls). Did your results get closer to 17% after doing more trials?

3.) Explain the Law of Large Numbers?

Group 2:
5- Orange
Theoretical Probability of Picking an Orange Marble:
3- Blue
3- Green
P(Orange)= ____________
4- Yellow
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Experimental Probability Table

O
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
1
0.
1
1.
1
2.
1
3.
1
4.
1
5.

1
6.
1
7.
1
8.
1
9.
2
0.
2
1.
2
2.
2
3.
2
4.
2
5.

Experimental Probability of Picking an Orange Marble:

P(Orange)= ___________

Group 3:
4- Orange
Theoretical Probability of Picking an Orange Marble:
1- Blue
8- Green
P(Orange)= ____________
3- Yellow
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Experimental Probability Table

O
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.

9.
1
0.
1
1.
1
2.
1
3.
1
4.
1
5.
1
6.
1
7.
1
8.
1
9.
2
0.
2
1.
2
2.
2
3.
2
4.
2
5.

Experimental Probability of Picking an Orange Marble:

P(Orange)= ___________

Group 4:
3- Orange
Theoretical Probability of Picking an Orange Marble:
4- Blue
6- Green
P(Orange)= ____________
2- Yellow
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Experimental Probability Table

1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
1
0.
1
1.
1
2.
1
3.
1
4.
1
5.
1
6.
1
7.
1
8.
1
9.
2
0.
2
1.
2
2.
2
3.
2
4.
2
5.

Experimental Probability of Picking an Orange Marble:

P(Orange)= ___________

Group 5:
1- Orange
Theoretical Probability of Picking an Orange Marble:
2- Blue
4- Green
P(Orange)= ____________
1- Yellow
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Experimental Probability Table

O
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
1
0.
1
1.
1
2.
1
3.
1
4.
1
5.
1
6.
1
7.
1
8.
1
9.
2
0.
2

1.
2
2.
2
3.
2
4.
2
5.

Experimental Probability of Picking an Orange Marble:

P(Orange)= ___________