MATHEMATICS UNIT PLANNER

Topic: Chance (Probability)

Key mathematical understandings
(2-4 understandings only; written as statements believed to be
true about the mathematical idea/topic):

The probability of an event/s can be

placed along a continuum from
impossible to certain

Language of chance can be used in

everyday events

Events could not happen if another event

happens.

Chance has no memory - for repeated

trials, the outcome of prior trials has no
impact on the next trial

Year Level: 4

Term: 1

Week: 4

Key AusVELS Focus / Standard (taken directly from AusVELS documents):

Content strand(s):
Number and Algebra
Measurement and Geometry

Date: 16/3/14
Statistics and Probability

Sub-strand(s): Chance
Level descriptions:
Describe possible everyday events and order their chances of occurring
Identify everyday events where one cannot happen if the other happens
Identify events where the chance of one will not be affected by the occurrence of the other
Proficiency strand(s):

Understanding

Fluency

Problem Solving

Reasoning

Understanding identify and describe reasoning for choosing a particular event. Represent events on a continuum.
Reasoning justify the reasons why choosing particular events, and justify why you use that particular word for
describing the likelihood of an event.

Key skills to develop and practise (including strategies,

ways of working mathematically, language goals, etc.) (4-5 key skills

Pieces of paper (strips x7 per person)

Represent events on a continuum

Standard 6 sided die

Identifying and justifying the likelihood of an

event using different resources such as die
and spinners

6 sided die with coloured dots

10 sided die

Poster paper

Whiteboard

Workbooks

only):

Key equipment / resources:

Identifying different everyday events

Exploring ideas on a mind map

Key vocabulary (be specific and include definitions of key words

appropriate to use with students)

Probability measuring how likely some

circumstance is to occur.
Chance possibility of something happening
Randomness outcomes cannot be affected in
any way that leads to a desired outcome
Trial Single performance of the event in the
experiment (eg. one roll of die)
Outcome results of one trial
Sample space set of all possible outcomes

Possible misconceptions (list of misconceptions related to

the mathematical idea/topic that students might develop):

Spinners

Envelops

Unifix blocks

Key probing questions (focus questions that will be used to

Links to other contexts (if applicable, e.g., inquiry unit focus,

develop understanding to be used during the sequence of lessons; 3 5

probing questions):

current events, literature, etc.):

Randomness
Event
Frequency
Independence of results

Learning
strategies/
skills

Analysing
Checking
Classifying
Co-operating
Considering options
Designing
Elaborating

Estimating
Explaining
Generalising
Hypothesising
Inferring
Interpreting
Justifying

What words are used to describe the

likelihood of an event?
Why is it important to use a range of words
when discussing the likelihood of an event?
How did you come to that conclusion and can
you justify your answer?
Why did you use those words to explain the
likelihood of event?

Listening
Locating information
Making choices
Note taking
Observing
Ordering events
Organising

Performing
Persuading
Planning
Predicting
Presenting
Providing feedback
Questioning

Reading
Recognising bias
Reflecting
Reporting
Responding
Restating
Revising

Literacy writing statements

Seeing patterns
Selecting information
Self-assessing
Sharing ideas
Summarising
Synthesising

Testing
Viewing
Visually representing
Working independently
Working to a timetable

MATHEMATICAL
FOCUS
(what you want the children
to come to understand as a
result of this lesson short,
succinct statement)

Session 1
Use words to
identify the
likelihood of an
event and
order their
chances of
occurring.

TUNING IN
(WHOLE CLASS FOCUS)

INVESTIGATIONS
SESSION

(a short, sharp task relating to the

focus of the lesson; sets the scene/
context for what students do in the
independent aspect. e.g., It may be a
problem posed, spider diagram, an
open-ended question, game, or
reading a story)

(INDEPENDENT LEARNING)
(extended opportunity for students to
work in pairs, small groups or
individually. Time for teacher to probe
childrens thinking or work with a small
group for part of the time and to also
conduct roving conferences)

Discuss what the students

think probability is.
Discuss what chance is.
Draw a line on the
whiteboard.
Ask the student openended questions and
identify what would be a
word used to describe one
end of the line, and the
other end (impossible and
certain?
Ask students
Are there any other words
that can be used to
describe the likelihood of
an event (likely, unlikely,
etc) and what are those
words?
Get students to give an
example.
The teacher writes these
words on a mind map so
students can refer back to.

Individually, students are to

write one statement of an
event on a piece of paper
given to them, and they are
to come up with a minimum
of 7 statements. For
example, there is a 50%
chance of my mother
having a baby girl.
Students are trying to use
as many different words as
possible to describe the
likelihood of an event.
Once that is completed,
students are to order those
events from least likely to
most likely to occur
instead of certain and
impossible.
Teacher will work with a
group and guide them
through the task if they are
struggling. This is for part
of the time once the

REFLECTION & MAKING

CONNECTIONS
SESSION
(WHOLE CLASS FOCUS)
(focused teacher questions and
summary to draw out the mathematics
and assist children to make links. NB.
This may occur at particular points
during a lesson. Use of spotlight,
strategy, gallery walk, etc.)

Gallery walk is conducted

whereby the students are
to place two examples that
they wrote on their table,
and walk around the
classroom reading other
peers examples of the
likelihood of an event.
Students sit back down,
and a discussion is made
about an event that is
certain to happen, that is
50/50, impossible, likely,
unlikely. Then discuss
where those words may go
on the continuum that was
drawn at the beginning of
the lesson.
Discuss other words
students may have used.

ADAPTATIONS
- Enabling prompt
(to allow those experiencing difficulty to
engage in active experiences related to
the initial goal task)
- Extending prompt
(questions that extend students
thinking on the initial task)

Enabling prompt:
Students will see the
difference between words
to describe the chance of
event occurring, and
provide example verbally
before they write it down.
Instead of ordering from
least likely to most likely,
students will order from
certain to impossible.
Extending prompt:
The students justify why
they used that particular
word in the statement that
they wrote. Do this for all
statements. Write in book.

ASSESSMENT
STRATEGIES
(should relate to objective. Includes
what the teacher will listen for,
observe, note or analyse; what
evidence of learning will be collected
and what criteria will be used to
analyse the evidence)

Anecdotal notes are

taken based on the
students worksheet
completed. Anecdotal
notes are also taken
during small group with
the teacher. (Wing Jan,
2009)
(Appendix 1)
The pieces of paper will
be pasted into the
students books (with an
order) and the teacher will
collect these and assess
if the students understand
the different words used
to describe the likelihood
of an event happening,
and if those words relate
to that event.

students get the idea of the

task and understand what
is required.

Session 2
Use words to
identify
different
possible
outcomes
using a
standard die

Go through the mind map

of previous class, and
discuss any other words
that we can use to describe
the likelihood of event
occurring.
Explain the activity for the
lesson.

In pairs, students are to

use a standard die, a fair
die.
They are to write down 10
different statements using
words that identify the
likelihood of something
happening when rolling the
die. For example, it is
certain that a number
smaller than 7 will appear
(Downton, tutorial 10,
2014).
This is completed in
workbook.
Teacher observes students
with how they are
cooperating with a partner,
how well the grasp the
concept of the activity,
seeing if the students have
learnt things from previous
lesson about words used to
describe the likelihood of
event, and also roaming
around and assisting with
students who may need
help.

During the lesson, the

teacher picks three pairs
who have been working
well to read out one
statement that they wrote
down and why.
After the lesson, other
pairs are chosen to come
to the front and read out
two statements they wrote
down and why.
Then, as a class we
discuss how the lesson
today relates with the
lesson yesterday.
Ask students why is it
important to use a range of
words when discussing the
likelihood of an event?
Ask students when can we
use these words in our
every day lives?

Enabling prompt:
An alternative instead of
using a standard die is
using a die with coloured
dots.
Students write statements
down still using words that
describe the likelihood of
something happening, but
they are rolling a coloured
die instead.
(Downton, lecture 10,
2014).
Extending prompt:
The students will use a 10sided die now, and write 5
statements using different
words to describe the
likelihood of rolling
something.
Justify why those words
were chosen for that
particular statement.
Completed in workbook.

Observational notes are

taken on how the
students progress or not
from previous lesson, and
if they understood the
concept of the use of
words to identify the
likelihood of something.
Teacher will listen for how
they are justifying their
answer with their partner,
and how they are working
with their partner.
Their workbooks will be
completed for assessing,
and the teacher will use a
rubrics cube to assess
their work in this activity.

Session 3
Exploring and
describing the
likelihood of
chance using
spinners and
the language of
chance.

Discussion:
What have we learnt from
previous lessons?
What are others everyday
events that we can use the
language of chance?
What are words that we
use to describe the
likelihood of chance/event
occurring?
Explain activity.

Students in pairs used

coloured spinners given to
them (spinner broken into 6
equal parts).
They are to explore the
likelihood of the colours on
the spinners using the
language of chance.
Describe the likelihood of
certain colours, using the
language of chance, and
write these statements in
workbook.
Can focus on which
colours are more frequent,
less frequent, etc.
Predict which colour will
occur more frequently and
why, and explain the
difference between the
results and predictions.
Write information in
workbooks.

Share time:
Each pair shares their
findings.
What statements were
made based on your
spinner?
How did you come to that
conclusion?
What language of chance
did you use and why?

Enabling prompt:
Start with a spinner that is
half one colour, and half
another. Discuss what can
you see? What words can
we use to describe the
spinner going on a
particular colour?
Move onto spinner with 4
equal parts. Discuss same
questions.
Come up with statements
using language of chance.
Extending prompt:
Each person in their pair,
need to write 5-7
statements in their
workbooks based on the
spinner. For example, the
spinner will land on a blue.
With their partner, the
students swap books and
identify the correct
language of chance to use.
For example, there is a
50/50 chance of the
spinner landing on a blue.
Students must refer to the
spinner that their partner is
referring to.

Observation notes are

taken based on the
students understanding of
language used when
referring to spinners. Are
the students referring
back to previous lesson
based on different words
used to identify the
likelihood of something?
Collect workbooks and
spinners and assess
statements and
responses.

Session 4
Identify
everyday
events
(weather)
where one
event cannot
happen if the
other events
happens

Explain to students that

sometimes an everyday
event cannot happen if
another event happens.
The teacher gives an
example of tennis using a
brainstorm map.
In the middle the event is
Cannot play tennis today.
Branching off of that are
events that can happen to
cause you to not play
tennis. An example of that
is rain.
Get students to have an
input of other events that
happens focusing on not
being able to play tennis.

The teacher places

students in small groups
(ability groups).
Students are to focus on
the weather as their event.
They are to identify an
event that has to do with
weather, and then they are
to brainstorm ideas by
identify factors that cannot
happen based on the event
chosen.
For example, it cannot be
dry and wet at the same
time.
For part of the time, the
teacher works with a small
group (low-achieved
group). Possibly start with
the enabling prompt.
After, the teacher observes
students knowledge on one
event not happening if
another event happens.
Are they grasping this
concept?

Reflection circle:
Students are to display
their work to the class.
They then discuss with
their group the event that
they chose, which cannot
happen, and what other
events happen based on
that.
Ask students what other
events cannot happen if
the other events happen?

Enabling prompt:
This is a step-by-step
process with guidance of
the teacher.
Using a t-chart, students
are to list on one side of
the t-chart what happens in
weather eg. dry. They then
need to list on the other
side of the t-chart what
happens when it is dry, and
what doesnt happen when
it is dry.
(Appendix 2)
This gives students an
understanding of the
different events and its
affects.
Extending prompt:
In their groups, students
can choose their own
everyday event where one
cannot happen if the other
event happens, and
brainstorm by doing a mind
map.

Anecdotal notes are

taken when working with
the small group.
Observational notes are
also taken. Observe
teamwork, verbalising
work before writing it
down, and analysing the
communication of
students by determining
the different events that
can happen.
Mind maps will be
collected and displayed.

Session 5
The chance of
one event
occurring is not
affected by the
other event
occurring.

Ask students the following

question:
If a mother has a second
baby, will it be a boy or a
girl?
Why?
Explain that it does not
matter what the mothers
first baby was, her second
baby can either be a boy or
a girl; it does not depend
on what sex the previous
baby is.
Explain activity.

Students in groups (ability

groups) are to identify 10
events where the
occurrence of the event is
not affected by another
event occurring.
Full sentence in workbook.
Why was the event
chosen?

Share time:
Students share their
findings and explain 5
events that are not affected
by another event occurring.
Ask students
Why was the event
chosen?
Justify reason.

Enabling prompt:
Get students to find an
event in the school that
does not affect the
occurrence of another
event. School situation
may be easier as they are
in the environment.
Extending prompt:
One student gets 8 unifix
blocks, maximum 3
different colours.
Unifix blocks are placed in
envelope, and the student
pulls out one, with
replacement. Colour is
recorded. Do this 5 times,
and students are to predict
how many of each colour is
in the envelope.
Does this an event
occurring? Why/why not?
(Downton, tutorial 10,
2014).

Anecdotal notes are

taken while students are
sharing their work. Write
down their findings.
Observational notes are
taken based on
understanding on
concept, and exploring
ideas.