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Spatial Statistics
Final Geostatistics Report Deliverable D4b
Marc Mancino
Project Manager
MM/
Enclosures: 1) Hardcopy formal report
Abstract
The focus of this deliverable is to geostatistically analyze a dataset using
the Geostatistical Analyst extension in ArcGIS. This project will utilize the
Inverse Distance Weighted (IDW) and Kriging interpolation methods to
produce a predictive model. The first purpose of the project is to compare
the prices of single detached housing in St. Catharines to Niagara Falls,
which will approach the data for each city separately to compare with each
other. The second purpose is to present a predictive model for which
neighbourhoods would be best to consider for a couple looking to purchase
that first home, which will approach the data as a whole.
Table of Contents
1.0 - Introduction......................................................................................................... 1
2.0 Methodology....................................................................................................... 3
2.1 Data Extraction............................................................................................... 3
2.2 Processing....................................................................................................... 7
2.3 Inverse Distance Weighted (IDW) Interpolation for St. Catharines..................7
2.4 Inverse Distance Weighted (IDW) Interpolation for Niagara Falls..................10
2.5 Kriging Interpolation for St. Catharines.........................................................13
2.6 Kriging Interpolation for Niagara Falls...........................................................16
2.7 Exploratory Data........................................................................................... 19
3.0 Pre-processed Observations............................................................................. 21
4.0 - Geostatistical Analysis...................................................................................... 23
5.0 - Conclusions....................................................................................................... 25
Bibliography.............................................................................................................. 26
Appendix................................................................................................................... 27
Page i
List of Figures
Figure 1 - House Prices ($) and Locations in the Niagara Region Study Area..........2
Figure 2 - Search input for Ovlix.com...................................................................3
Figure 3 The cheapest house listing for St. Catharines.......................................3
Figure 4 - An ArcMap menu displaying the creation of the shapefile for the sample
points of each city........................................................................................4
Figure 5 - Sample Locations for the 50 Cheapest Houses for Sale in St. Catharines
according to Ovlix.......................................................................................5
Figure 6 - Sample Locations for the 50 Cheapest Houses for Sale in Niagara Falls
according to Ovlix'.......................................................................................6
Figure 7 - ArcMap menu displaying the Geostatistical Analyst tool......................7
Figure 8 ArcMap menu displaying the Search Neighborhood Parameters of the
IDW interpolation for St. Catharines..............................................................7
Figure 9 - ArcMap menu displaying the 'Cross Validation' of the IDW interpolation
for St. Catharines.........................................................................................8
Figure 10 - Resultant Map for the IDW Interpolation of the Data Points for St.
Catharines................................................................................................... 9
Figure 11 - ArcMap menu displaying the 'Search Neighborhood' Parameters of the
IDW interpolation for Niagara Falls..............................................................10
Figure 12 - ArcMap menu displaying the 'Cross Validation' of the IDW interpolation
for Niagara Falls.........................................................................................10
Figure 13 - Resultant Map for the IDW Interpolation of the Data Points for Niagara
Falls........................................................................................................... 11
Figure 14 - ArcMap menu displaying the 'Search Neighborhood' Parameters of the
Kriging interpolation for St. Catharines.......................................................12
Figure 15 - ArcMap menu displaying the 'Cross Validation' of the Kriging
interpolation for St. Catharines...................................................................12
Figure 16 - Resultant Map for the Kriging Interpolation of the Data Points for St.
Catharines..................................................................................................13
Figure 17 - ArcMap menu displaying the 'Search Neighborhood' Parameters of the
Kriging interpolation for Niagara Falls.........................................................14
Figure 18 - ArcMap menu displaying the 'Cross Validation' of the Kriging
interpolation for Niagara Falls.....................................................................14
Figure 19 - Resultant Map for the Kriging Interpolation of the Data Points for
Niagara Falls.............................................................................................. 15
Figure 20 - Frequency histogram showing the number of houses in each price
category for St. Catharines.........................................................................19
Figure 21 - Frequency histogram showing the number of houses in each price
category for Niagara Falls...........................................................................19
Figure 22 - Snapshot of the IDW Interpolation Result for St. Catharines atop Base
Map Imagery.............................................................................................. 20
Figure 23 - Snapshot of the IDW Interpolation Result for Niagara Falls atop Base
Map Imagery.............................................................................................. 20
Figure 24 - Snapshot of the Kriging Interpolation Result for St. Catharines atop
Base Map Imagery......................................................................................21
Figure 25 - Snapshot of the Kriging Interpolation Result for Niagara Falls atop
Base Map Imagery......................................................................................21
List of Tables
Table 1 - ArcMap menus displaying Histograms for each city using the
Page ii
Page iii
1.0 - Introduction
The focus of this deliverable is to geostatistically analyze the dataset that
was approved in the first part of the project. With the conclusion of the
preliminary observations, the in-depth analysis can begin. As a refresher,
the first purpose is to compare the prices of single detached housing in St.
Catharines to Niagara Falls, which will approach the data for each city
separately to compare with each other. These two cities were selected
because they had the most data on the website that was chosen for the
data extraction. The initial hypothesis was that Niagara Falls would have
significantly higher housing prices due to the significantly larger tourism
influence due to its proximity to one of the wonders of the world: Niagara
Falls. The second purpose is to present a predictive model for which
neighbourhoods would be best to consider for a couple looking to purchase
that first home, which will approach the data as a whole.
In order to geostatistically analyze the dataset, a powerful application
called ArcGIS will be used. ArcGIS is a user-friendly application capable of
manipulating and distributing geographic information (ESRI, 2014). This
project will utilize the geostatistical analyst extension from ArcGIS and
apply the Inverse Distance Weighted (IDW) and Kriging interpolation
methods to the data points to produce a predictive model. The Inverse
Distance Weighted (IDW) interpolation assumes that each measured point
has a local influence that diminishes with distance and therefore weights
points closer to the prediction location greater than those farther away
(ESRI, 2015). The Kriging interpolation method assumes that the distance
or direction between sample points reflects a spatial correlation that can
be used to explain variation in the surface. The main difference between
the two interpolation methods is that the IDW is directly based on the
surrounding measured values or on specified mathematical formulas that
determine the smoothness of the resulting surface, whereas Kriging is
based on statistical models that include the statistical relationships among
the measured points (ESRI, 2015). The candidate dataset for these
interpolation methods can be seen in the Niagara Region study area,
shown in Figure 1.
Page 1
Figure 1 - House Prices ($) and Locations in the Niagara Region Study Area
Page 2
2.0 Methodology
2.1 Data Extraction
The procedures for data extraction are outlined below. The locations of
interest were input into the search engines of the Ovlix website, as
shown in Figure 2.
Once all of the house addresses and their respective prices had been
recorded, google map was used to obtain the latitude and longitude
coordinates. In order to create a map to display the points in ArcMap, the
Page 3
UTM coordinates would need to be derived from the latitude and longitude
coordinates. An excel worksheet was created to separate the price (z),
UTM Easting (x), and UTM Northing (y) data into columns for each city. The
excel worksheet was saved as a .csv file so that a shapefile could be
created in ArcMap. The X field (UTM Easting), Y field (UTM Northing), and Z
field (Price) for creating a shapefile in ArcMap were input and the
coordinate system was set to the usual NAD 1983 UTM Zone 17N, as
indicated in Figure 4.
Figure 4 - An ArcMap menu displaying the creation of the shapefile for the sample
points of each city
The resultant maps, displaying all of the sample locations, were created
using these shapefiles, as shown in Figure 5 (St. Catharines) and Figure 6
(Niagara Falls).
Page 4
Figure 5 - Sample Locations for the 50 Cheapest Houses for Sale in St. Catharines
Page 5
according to Ovlix
Page 6
Figure 6 - Sample Locations for the 50 Cheapest Houses for Sale in Niagara Falls
according to Ovlix'
2.2 Processing
The procedures for processing the data using the geostatistical analyst
extension are outlined below. The dataset was input into the IDW and
Kriging functions of the Geostatistical Analyst tool, as shown in Figure 7.
Page 7
Figure 9 - ArcMap menu displaying the 'Cross Validation' of the IDW interpolation
for St. Catharines
The resultant map, displaying the IDW interpolation of the data points for
St. Catharines, was created using the Geostatistical Analyst tool, as
shown in Figure 10.
Page 8
Figure 10 - Resultant Map for the IDW Interpolation of the Data Points for St.
Page 9
Catharines
Page 10
Figure 12 - ArcMap menu displaying the 'Cross Validation' of the IDW interpolation
for Niagara Falls
The resultant map, displaying the IDW interpolation of the data points for
Niagara Falls, was created using the Geostatistical Analyst tool, as shown
in Figure 13.
Page 11
Figure 13 - Resultant Map for the IDW Interpolation of the Data Points for Niagara
Page 12
Falls
Page 13
The resultant map, displaying the kriging interpolation of the data points
for St. Catharines, was created using the Geostatistical Analyst tool, as
shown in Figure 16.
Page 14
Figure 16 - Resultant Map for the Kriging Interpolation of the Data Points for St.
Page 15
Catharines
Page 16
The resultant map, displaying the kriging interpolation of the data points
for Niagara Falls, was created using the Geostatistical Analyst tool, as
shown in Figure 19.
Page 17
Figure 19 - Resultant Map for the Kriging Interpolation of the Data Points for
Page 18
Niagara Falls
St. Catharines
Niagara Falls
The QQ plots for each city were created using the Geostatistical Analysis
tool as shown in Table 2.
Table 2 - ArcMap menus displaying QQ plots for each city using the 'Geostatistical
Analysis' tool
St. Catharines
Niagara Falls
Page 19
The semivariograms for each city were created using the Geostatistical
Analysis tool as shown in Table 3.
Table 3 - ArcMap menus displaying Semivariograms for each city using the
'Geostatistical Analysis' tool
St. Catharines
Niagara Falls
The covariances for each city were created using the Geostatistical
Analysis tool as shown in Table 4.
Table 4 - ArcMap menus displaying Covariance using the 'Geostatistical Analysis'
tool
St. Catharines
Niagara Falls
Page 20
Page 21
was much more erratic and demonstrated a lot less consistency than St.
Catharines, where it was more obvious.
The data extracted from the Ovlix website can be analyzed to produce
common statistical variables, as indicated in Table 5.
Table 5 - Analysis of Statistical Variables for each City and for All the Data
Min
$39,900
Max
$249,900
Mean
$181,293
Median
$182,400
640754.4
646218.9
643012.05
Northing (y)
4777090.
6
4786165.2
643201.32
6
4780516.5
82
4780516.3
5
2175.5366
Niagara
Falls
Easting (x)
$99,900
$259,900
$181,805
$174,900
649836.3
658221.9
655260.1
Northing (y)
4768433.
6
4778238.8
655168.54
2
4773425.5
2
$43,235.6
15
1862.3312
St.
Catharines
Easting (x)
4773412.9
5
SD
$50,977.9
5
1469.9971
1971.3000
The data extracted from the Ovlix website can be analyzed and plotted in
Microsoft Excel to produce frequency histograms, as indicated in Figure 20
and Figure 21.
Page 22
Page 23
Page 24
The IDW interpolation result for Niagara Falls, shown in Error: Reference
source not found, predicted a good portion of the cheaper housing in the
eastern part of the city, more specifically along the Niagara Parkway,
demonstrated by the black indicator circle. The more expensive housing is
generally located in the north-western quadrant of the city and scattered
somewhat erratically throughout the southern half. Therefore, this model
suggests that purchasing that first home in
Niagara Falls would be ideal in the area
encompassed by the black indicator circle.
This could be because it is within the vicinity
of the busiest part Figure 22 - Snapshot of the
of Niagara Falls. IDW Interpolation Result for St.
Noise
pollution Catharines atop Base Map
from
the
falls Imagery
themselves as well as the early morning
tourists occupying an area that would
seemingly never sleep are both potential
contributors. The Niagara Whirlpool is also
another famous tourist and fishing enthusiast
attraction. Usually, unattractive attributes of
a residence and its surroundings result in a
reduced cost. The only variable being
considered is house cost, but these ideal
Figure 23 - Snapshot of the IDW
locations could change if other variables,
Interpolation Result for Niagara
such as the cheapest and quietest location,
Falls atop Base Map Imagery
were accounted for. It is outside the scope of this project, but would be
interesting to look into for future projects.
Page 25
Page 26
Page 27
5.0 - Conclusions
After performing a geostatistical analysis using two different interpolation
methods from ArcGIS, a few conclusions can be made. As a refresher, the
initial hypothesis was that Niagara Falls would have significantly higher
housing prices due to the significantly larger tourism influence due to its
proximity to one of the wonders of the world: Niagara Falls. This
hypothesis was rejected as the complete opposite was observed. The
housing prices in Niagara Falls were cheapest in the busiest areas. The
difference in house prices between St. Catharines and Niagara Falls was
marginal and insignificant. The predictive model produced by the IDW
interpolation for St. Catharines, indicated that ideal first home
purchasing, in terms of house cost, was in the southern half of the city,
more specifically clustered near the center. The predictive model produced
by the IDW interpolation for Niagara Falls, indicated that ideal first home
purchasing, in terms of house cost, was in the eastern part of the city,
more specifically along the Niagara Parkway. Additional data collection is
recommended to achieve better results and avoid the risk of producing an
interpolation result that cannot be interpreted.
Page 28
Bibliography
1) Smith, Ian D. (2015) GISC9308D4 Geostatistical Analysis of Student
Collected Spatial Data. Terms of Reference.
2) ESRI ArcGIS Resources. Comparing Models. (2015). Retrieved on
March 23rd, 2015 from
http://resources.arcgis.com/en/help/main/10.1/index.html#//0031000
000q0000000
3) ESRI ArcGIS Resources. Examining spatial autocorrelation and
directional variation. (2015). Retrieved on March 23rd, 2015 from
http://resources.arcgis.com/en/help/main/10.1/index.html#/Examinin
g_spatial_autocorrelation_and_directional_variation/00310000001700
0000/
4) ESRI ArcGIS Resources. Search Neighborhoods. (2015). Retrieved
on March 23rd, 2015 from
http://resources.arcgis.com/en/help/main/10.1/index.html#//0031000
0001r000000
5) ESRI ArcGIS Resources. How Kriging works. (2015). Retrieved on
March 23rd, 2015 from
http://help.arcgis.com/en/arcgisdesktop/10.0/help/index.html#//009z
00000076000000.htm
6) ESRI ArcGIS 9.2 Desktop Help. How Inverse Distance Weighted
(IDW) interpolation works. (2015). Retrieved on March 23rd, 2015
from http://webhelp.esri.com/arcgisdesktop/9.2/index.cfm?
TopicName=How_Inverse_Distance_Weighted_%28IDW
%29_interpolation_works
7) Ovlix. Find Your Home on Ovlix.com. (2015). Retrieved from
http://www.ovlix.com/
Page 29
Appendix
The data extracted from the Ovlix website is displayed in its entirety, as
indicated in Table 6.
Table 6 Housing UTM Coordinates and their Respective Price for St. Catharines
and Niagara Falls
St.
Catharines
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
Price (z)
$39,900.0
0
$73,500.0
0
$99,900.0
0
$107,900.
00
$109,900.
00
$111,500.
00
$112,900.
00
$117,900.
00
$121,500.
00
$133,700.
00
$144,900.
00
$149,900.
00
$154,900.
00
$154,900.
00
$159,900.
00
$159,900.
00
$159,950.
00
$162,500.
00
$168,800.
00
$169,000.
00
$169,900.
00
$169,900.
00
UTM E
(x)
642824
.6
644239
642812
643764
.9
643162
642618
.3
643263
.5
643628
642804
.4
642417
.2
642324
.8
642270
.6
644571
.2
641621
.5
641953
.4
641857
.2
643750
.8
644324
.2
642337
.4
642862
.1
645151
.6
641991
.6
UTM N
(y)
477993
2.3
478062
9.5
478059
9.3
478088
1.2
478094
6.9
478151
7.1
478034
8
478114
4.7
478170
6.7
477846
0.1
478053
2
478069
8.7
477908
8.2
477799
1.4
478331
7.8
477799
3.9
478206
4.1
478043
2.8
477838
7.4
478086
1.5
477798
6.5
478099
3.2
Niagara
Falls
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
Price (z)
$99,900.0
0
$107,000.
00
$109,900.
00
$124,900.
00
$134,500.
00
$134,900.
00
$137,900.
00
$139,000.
00
$139,777.
00
$139,900.
00
$139,900.
00
$139,900.
00
$142,900.
00
$145,000.
00
$149,900.
00
$159,900.
00
$159,900.
00
$159,900.
00
$162,500.
00
$164,500.
00
$166,900.
00
$169,900.
00
UTM E
(x)
657057
.6
657089
.6
656202
.2
655006
.7
656940
.6
657084
.2
656970
.2
655274
.1
654505
.6
657038
.4
654717
.3
656145
.9
651781
656539
.7
655421
.2
655028
.9
657029
.7
654702
.4
656540
.5
657482
.2
654767
654391
UTM N
(y)
477523
9.4
477529
5.6
477495
0.6
477066
9.1
477326
4.7
477339
5.5
477318
9.4
477292
9.1
477179
2.2
477430
0.3
477522
8.2
477456
4.6
477086
7.8
477474
5.7
477293
5.9
477309
2.8
477403
7
477042
6
477447
0.4
477404
6
477187
5
477215
5.3
Page 30
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
St.
Catharines
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
$174,500.
00
$179,900.
00
$179,900.
00
$184,900.
00
$189,900.
00
$189,900.
00
$189,900.
00
$196,900.
00
$210,000.
00
$214,900.
00
$218,900.
00
$219,800.
00
$219,900.
00
Price (z)
$219,900.
00
$219,900.
00
$229,900.
00
$229,900.
00
$229,900.
00
$234,900.
00
$234,900.
00
$237,900.
00
$239,000.
00
$239,000.
00
$239,900.
00
$239,900.
00
$247,500.
00
$249,900.
00
$249,900.
00
644080
.3
646155
.3
645638
.6
644531
.4
640754
.4
643750
.4
642095
.7
642034
.8
642215
.2
643267
.6
641195
.7
644157
.5
643903
.5
UTM E
(x)
641162
.4
641022
.7
642347
.1
642097
.4
644874
.4
645221
.8
644302
.5
646218
.9
645232
.3
640783
.9
645648
.4
644708
.5
640919
.1
641846
.3
643349
.9
478020
0.2
477965
4.7
477857
0
477946
4.6
478059
9.7
478263
7.7
478050
0.7
477843
8
477855
2.7
478376
0.8
477942
5
477809
8.6
478345
6.1
UTM N
(y)
477773
8.3
477738
1.9
478297
5.1
478350
4.6
478035
1.4
478267
7.4
478616
5.2
477846
3.5
478322
6.8
477725
2.4
477823
2.5
478189
3
477709
0.6
478387
8.3
478517
6
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
Niagara
Falls
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
$169,900.
00
$174,900.
00
$174,900.
00
$174,900.
00
$177,900.
00
$182,000.
00
$189,900.
00
$189,900.
00
$194,000.
00
$194,500.
00
$199,900.
00
$199,900.
00
$209,000.
00
Price (z)
$209,900.
00
$209,500.
00
$212,000.
00
$224,900.
00
$229,000.
00
$229,900.
00
$229,900.
00
$229,900.
00
$235,900.
00
$245,395.
00
$249,000.
00
$249,900.
00
$254,900.
00
$259,900.
00
$259,900.
00
657367
.9
655693
.7
654212
.4
657191
.3
653731
.9
652681
.8
655246
.1
654994
.9
655243
.7
656897
.6
655071
.1
653593
657740
.9
UTM E
(x)
652049
.5
653975
.2
652448
.9
654622
.1
656613
.9
654312
.7
658221
.9
649979
.4
655294
.9
649836
.3
653946
.6
655299
.6
655546
.5
655382
.6
653514
.7
477368
8
477383
9.6
477281
0.7
477352
9
476971
5.4
477161
5.4
477333
4.6
477578
4.3
477147
9.5
477343
0.4
477606
4.3
477231
7.5
477424
7.9
UTM N
(y)
477385
3.1
477638
1
477512
6.9
477270
0.1
477406
9.4
477443
3.3
476843
3.6
477224
4.5
477675
4.4
477231
7.3
477248
4.9
477732
9.6
477823
8.8
477032
7.9
477125
4
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