156 100P POLARITY, L0OP DOMINANCE, ‘ano THE CONCEPT GF DOMTAART POLARITY Norton, Neasachoett International System Dynanice Conference Reguse, 1380 Loor POLARITY, L00P poNINANCE, no"THE CONCEPT Oe” DOMERANT POLARITY George F. Rtehardecn heaton College Norton, Hassachusettey 02766 Abacrace ‘There to 2 conspicuous gap in the Literature about fo circular causality between Incultive statements aboot abies fe Loop Gontnance and. precise teportent E and useful set of deflaittons of loop In doainene polarity, and shite in Toop dominance, application In a tange of systen dynamics models artetony doatnene polarity, shite” the polarity of single inflow ite ‘Loop polarity is show co depend upon the alga of parameters not uavaliy considered part of the loop ftaelfs Tate cxpreanion for loop polarity ie then applied te multi-locp firetcorder syetens to define ehe dominant polartey of auch epatens, "ALL positive Toope with gain Tess than one, such ae econonte aultipliere, ate shown t0 be mlti-loop aystens vith doatnant negative polarity. he shifts in loop loatnance thee gecur in nonlinear eyatens arive naturally as changes 0 the ‘ga of the dominant polarity. Examples157 ‘AND THE CONCEPT OF DOMINANT POLARITY George P. Richardson ‘heaton College * ones Introduction Underlying the formal, quantitative methods of aystem dynamics Ls the ‘onl of understanding hov the feedback structure of a systen contributes £0 te behavior. saved 40 cera of stocks and flove, the polarities of feedback loops interconnecting tm our Alcerature between incottive Nowever, there te # consptevous We detine and detect ach saportant aonlinesr phenomena. ‘Tie Investtgation ts an attempe Co In the offore to ‘hat our comon definitions of loop polertties vere aot euffictently preciee. There 1s an underlying onease in our oun fleld and in the cyderneticn Literature that ve do not really know shat positive Loop 12, Asnby, for exaaple, wae suffictently bothered by the geal-seeking tehevior Of the discrete positive Loop gy * ¥e/2s Yeqy "Hl? that he uted 16 co 2 of the “4 sopport hte el yutey” of feedback ae 2 tool for underatanding complex dynamic eystens (Athby 1956, p, 81). To avold auch anomalies, sone define « loop to be positive If At gives “dtvergent behavior." Grahen (1977) finds problens with that charactertzation and Dontnaet Folertey ‘euggeste Instead chat a Loop be called positive tf tee otote gate Le greater than one. funtons by describing a well-aeaning professor trying to explain to « concerned student: "Positive loops are «+. er, well, they give cise to sos under other conditions they tehove ike ae 109p £0 bs & gosl-seeking Loop whose goal contiavally “runs off tn the Jteectioa of the search” (Riehaond 1980), Same, of course, Sanore all ‘che subtleties and obtain loop polarities siaply by counting negative links (Richardson and Pugh 1981). Me begin then with a tighter, sore formal definition of the polarity of feedback 100p. Our focus, however, 1s on the concept of Loop dominance and the phenonason of shifts in loop dontnance sn malti-1oop porous Deftnitton of Loop Folariey very dynantcelly slgniticant feedback: loop in a system contains at east one Level (accumulation of tntegration)."!* ve shall ose that principle co formulate rigorous definition of the polarity of # feedback oop. (The development vill be in terms of continuous aystens. A sinilar development holds for Feedback proceases couched in discrete terme, provided the principle of "an accumulation tn every loop" te aeincatned.) conetder « ingle feedback Loop tavolving « single level x and anDontnant Polarity 3 158 a fntlov rate k= ax/de. Define the polartey of the feedback Loop Making the inflow rate & fend the level“ fo be ental, m otent with our more intultive characterte~ seal change tn x" vhich te craved stone can be chovsht of an ‘round the Loop until 1 cesulee tn "a gmall change 4k" La the inflow race Ke dn/de. 10 ee change dk te kn the same direction ae the change ax, then they have the eane olga. Since & here {4 an faflow and thee bs ‘added to the level, the toop relaforces the Initial change and te thus = t24ve, 20 the formal positive loop In auch s case, eign(dh/ds) tl dettoltion 16 conetotent with the sntuttive one. If the resulting chenge ‘0 © 18 In the opposite direction to the change dx, then te negative by both ‘tgn(ah/da) tu negative and che polarity of the Io four tncuteive end formal definttions. Te formal definition 48 equivalent er fee 0 defining the polarity of « ftrat~ 1k Loop t0 be the aten of the slope of tte rate-vers To extend the definition to feedback loops 1m which K Ls an outflow rate, ve merely have C0 ogree to attach a negative stan to the expces for 4 AE Le represents an outflows Then the definition above holds for wolving 2 single level x and a.eingle inflow, outflow, oF net they axe rate The Feat few examples that follov ace very fantlia fntended to establish sone confidence tn this formal definition of Loop larity before we use Lt co derive some 1 Example (1): Exponenttel grovth oF decay. let, t+ bes tere b te a constant. Then the polarity of the feedback loop ts " a “ Wich ta ponttive If be pouteive and negative Lf ote The result makes Intuitive sense, a6 may be seen by Interpreting & ae ‘et cate such as net population grovth, If biethe exceed desthe, the coeftietent % ts positive and the Loop prodvces exponentiat population Srovth, Stallarly, If deaths exceed birche, bie negative and the loop ‘exhibits exponenctol decay behavior. ‘The unval case te > 0, and chat Prompts us ko call all auch fLrat-order net-rate formulations posteive th a loop tn fact depende ono pat oops. However, the polarity of ot ‘owe sen Le set by envizonaental conditions outetde the loops Without knowledge of the sign of by the polarity of the loop represented by & = bx te undeteratned.“M* fxmple (2): Exponential adjustment. co s goal. tet k= GEM, ere xt and Fave constants, positive Itt 1 te postttve, a Heattons of cite structure, as in exponenttal smoothing, the tine conacant T te eluaye positive, ao the Loop te 0 2, this formulation reduces to example (1) vith bo -1/T <0: again, «14 Intutive deftnittons. In en negative Loop by both formal cases, the formal definition of loop polarity behaves appro ylelds no sew tonights, Cases involving more then one loop provide sore Intoreatig testing ground. WletoLoop structures: Loop Dorinance ‘The Forait definition of oop polarity leads to a precise concept of 1009 dont ng several Feedback loops and che level vartable x, Let cepcessnt the net incresse In x Define the dominant polarity of the first-order aysten to be arene This staple extension of the Foreal deftattion of Loop polarity to multh= der systems Leads to nev understandings of sone fantliar oop fea ‘structures and a precise statenent of what Ls asant by 4 shift 49 Loop eh LUnear and oataance, The examplee belov {llustrate results for ‘nonlinear aystens Exmple (QD: Loptatte growth. Let bears m2, arb >0, ‘Tale famtitar structure can be thought of as 4 pate of feedbeck Toop, one positive and one negative. One could revrite the ke@- ms TC we took each factor Ty changing Se woutd have rate tiratcocder 4yste Bye x and ya 159 he definition of Loop polarity produc the expected rerutee: Polartty of toop 1 = Hen(t, 0) = aten(a) = + . olacity of loop 2 = stgn(dig/ée) = sten(-b) = = 1 polarkty of this nonlinear ley» stanai/o0) +e x cone, + stanca = 200 = { =e ean ‘Tous the doainant polarity in this two-loop aysten shifts Crom posteive Co negative ao the level variable x grove, Te shift a |, dominant polarity sugeste the folloving formal definttton: shife in Loop doninence ta seid to occur if ‘hanger Signs het Tey view the dontnant po 1m the logistic equation, « shift In Loop dontnance occurs shen the level ches half of te aaximun value, the curve, The shift tn loop doninance ta # consequence of the nonlin $2 tm any Clrat-order syaton contelning any nuaber of oops, 1 % te « Linesr function of x, ak/dx te constant and can not change atgn.®* ‘shite {0 loop doninsnce -- only chose that involve « change in doatsane polarity, Premumably, 1¢ ts entirely possible for a aysten to show a shift 40 dominance between to negative loops oF te positive Loops. such « ‘ite An doatnance between leopa of the sane polarity would not show upDominant Polarity 1m dontnane poterity and would have to be datined and detected by Example (4): General nonlinear aignotd growth etructure. let ke HG, 160 20, ‘A suggestive exoaple 1s the business construction formulation fo Several sinple urban aodels (alfeld & Granem 1976) in vhich, RPK, = BON RSA * BLK, = business consteuction (structures/year), BON business construction sore! (Ersction/ year), woletplier (dimensionless), fond DUM > Bsineas Dontaane polarity = aian(sh/dx) tent) + 38°C] + at ery > - 1 (r= Ve ae ery co simple geometcte Interpretation (G0) 24 slope of the cangent Co the graph of y = 6x) at che point G4,fG0)- On the term (0/4 represents the elope of the Mie from the origin to the point (x,f(4)). Taken cogether, these considerations show: from the origins TE uch a point existe (thet 19, Lf loop doatnance doce indeed shift in the aysten), these tvo Lines would thus form the diagonal 160 system the polnt of shitting Loop dominance leually fron a table function for f(). Figure 1 shows the determiaa ton of the potmt of shifting Loop dosinance for the busines CHANes, =x) FRACTIOMAL RATE Leven, Figure 1: Locating on the graph of y= £O) the point of ‘shiteing loop dominance In the ELtat-order algneld Reowth Syaten k= eee natly C0 the Loglatte equation ax ‘The crteerton Just derived applies For ks an- bes (beds, ee function (4) te be, wich Le a ateatgne Line free ( curve 8) £0 (alb,0) Therefore, eh ‘ceelt becomes one of the dtagonale of the rectangle that determine the point of shifting loop doainance, and the other dt rane fran (0,0) 80. (a joint of shifting loop dontnance Le thus161 gain found to be x= #/2b, since the diagonal of a rectangle biaect each ‘hn analogous ‘onule, with an even slapler geometric interpretation, holds for nonlinear ayetens of the form K+ (xt = 20/fG0, (GD > 0. tm uch ayeceme, a eepresente sone goal state for the level varteble x, and 100 cepresente 4 variable adjustment time dependent on the level. Examples of such formulations Include pollutton absorption In orld Dynantee (Forrester 1971) and food regeneration An the KATBAB sodel (Coodaan 1974, Roberts et 41-1982). [In the Former x4 would be zero since the abeorption rate Le slaply the outflov from the pollution Levels) 1m these cases, computation analogous to example (4)"7* hove that Loop dostnance shifts ven £0 res ‘The geometric Interpretation of this condition follow by noting thet £OD/Grx) can be viewed at the slope of the Line Joining (x,(4)) and (24,0), Loop dontsionce in such 4 system shifts hen che slope of the Kangent Co the graph of y+ £(3) equale the elope of the line from the st GAO). As an example, Figure 2 shows the polnt of tangency to the p cable function for pollution absorption tine feoa Forrester (1971). The “eangent Line" shou in the figure appeared in the original without explanation. Wow ve know ita significance: aince xt = 0 here the line from (0,0) tangent to the graph determines the Location of the ahife to oop dominance of his system, Because Forseater’e table function formulation Les along this Line for 10 < POLK < 20, the ahift tn 1 dominance ocevre aot at 8 polnt but over an Interval, For POLR < 10, the negative Loop dominates and the system Lu capable of absorbing increas 11vton increases for constant oF the capability of exhibiting ranavey leven declining ratee of pollution generation, In the Interval 110,20] netther loop dominates: uhen the pollution ratio falls in this range the system {4 ossentlally open-loop. Figuce 2: Table function for pollution absorption time {rom Forrester (1971), shoving the Line Indicating the interval ‘ver which loop doninence shifte fron tegetive to poettive a he pollution fevel grove.Donioase Folerity u 162 Example (5): “fosttive loops with gain Less than one." 1A closste example of thle structure 1s the consmaption multiplier (samelson 1999, Lav 1980), show In Figure 3r In the Cormleton Ssponeattal saooth of GHP CH), 80 on ag ke Figure 3: The congunption multiplier: ford Ce <1, a feet ‘order ayaten with negative doninant polariey- Since ene propensity to consume (<) mat wecessarily be a fraction Leas cy of the mult plier “Loop” te than one, we conclude that dominant polar salvaye negative. ‘te coettietent ¢ In ehte aysten te comonly referred to a5 the ‘open-loop steady-state gale ot open-loop step gain of the positive Loop connecting GP (Y), consumption (C), and average Income (x). The multiplier structure 8 thus usvally characterized at a poslttve Toop with polarity, however, 1t 4 clearly seen to be a structure conateting of two oops, one positive and one negative, In which, for all sensible parsneter values (066 C1), the negative polarity always doeinaces. A stator servcture but Migher-order Figures prosinently in the market groveh aodel sn Forrester (19684) (eee pp-18-20). The gosl-sesking ehavior that euch systems dieplay fe thus a0 surprise. Te te intultively reasonable that o syaten with dominant polarity should be g¢ not tavoke an add{ttonal concept, euch aa "galn,” t0 explain the apparent anomaly of “goal-rocking positive Loops." The nonlinear notion of Loop ontnance, Wateh 1s pare of the system dynaate everyiay stock-in-trade, ouffies Ay tm chess More Cooplex Systems polarity, and shite tn Loop doatnance ta to be able ¢é163 slgatticant about mules-loop nonlinear systems conta “Atetorent cates, levels, aod auntlbactes, Taking suntttartes Fleet as the Let variable A directly influence vs ‘polarity of the Dink from Ato 8 stench This deftoition ts merely a foreal statement patterned after ovr previous et tntetons, wich expresses the tntuttive notion of a change ta A (AA) repulting in change tn 8 (4k Now suppose the rate K Le Linked to the level BD ay oe ay eee a Repeated application of the chain rule for differentiation of composite fancttons yields a 1k follow as « consequence thet atgaCdi/éx), the polarity of the fee oop formed by x, chin sequence of auxiliaries aed te che product of the elgne of the Linke in the Loop, a8 ve have Le the past defined 40, ve lute oueh a computation in eh analysis of the multiplier loop: lune vec ett int C= eed 1 vetore, ‘the potentially mote troublesome aed more stgntfteant situation Involves loops of more than one Level. To pet 2 sense of che applicability of these ideas to such systems, Jet us coneider « familiar nonlinear system Example (6): The Lotka-Volterce predator-prey ke axe by Boney + tng, Mppiping the’ definttton of atnant polarity 0 each of these tual one independently, ve Find + care y> ald, Geld tontatend = teste = 99 2 +4 and stgnCay/iy) = stance = a0) = { = eel 1m this sttustion, these expressions tell us the conditions under which each population's behavior x dontaated by ts om posteive oop oF negative 1oop processes, that fa, blethe or deaths. For the prey, the postetve toop dominates an ene prey Coutts For the predeators, the positive Loop cones popelation te small (< a erteteal etze to dominate only shen the prey population exceeds a ceit oa.164 hile these expressions For dominant polarity about each of the Levels Independently do not tell the whole story of they do strongly suggest that the system ought to osclilate, One could reason at follows. Say the system starts with both populations sual: x < c/4, y © a/b Then according C0 the sbove celeulattons, the x population by Ac8 ponttive (births) Loop, and the y population 16 dominated by 122 negative (deaths) loop. Thx x should grow andy should decline. If x prom to exceed c/d, the system experiences change tn Loop dominance: the y population cones to be daninated by tte fought €o cease declining and atert to rise. poeteive (BLEtRe) Loop, 60 y Eventually, Af ‘fo, smother anise in oop dominance takes place: the x population comes to be dontnated by {te negative (deathay’toop, 20 18 ought £0 peak and begin declining. If x fale tar ought ‘enough (< e/4), 100p doatnance for the y population again negative and the y population must stert to decline Eventually, y 0 Fall for enough to ehIFe the dominant Loop of the x rt to rise, and bringing ue back to the scart of th «Figure & shows the recurcing pattern of Aostnant polarities in the behavior of thle predator-prey syst cera Gondtstone |= Cole Dontvant Folarity dominance tel Te should be enphasized hat th Te moor negative Toop in the system 1s only laplicitty being taken into account. It To soe what we ight be lor sat an efgenvalue analyst (Ife) Ee} ale ats] fey a | [rte Thus tn such @ Lineartzation our partial derivatives dk/dx and dj/iy would appear ( snd tgs Ignoring terme off the aain diagonal in the Lnearie fy and ay), but a0 vould ai/dy Gil Gas 6, ject ively). By Investigating -di/dx and di/dy alone we are stacerepace matet, Te looks an A the ential Cor thie developaent of the otion of domtnant pot = An uate the oft ‘and far botveen, of are for sone other teaton not partteularly atgntftcane. S In spite of that apparent Miattation, we can apply these Ideas to her To do 4o we Firat need der feedback syatent and lear something. 4 rigorous definition of the polarity of « aafor 1oop. Consider # Loop165 connected in oF compooed of level ys 5 my stern of our previous > by. Following the Detine che polarity of the major 1oop to be ty ty yw, stant me ie Te Bey Applied co the major Loop in the Lotke-volterre systen, Cor example, this detinteton states chat ste polarity 1 nan teal (-bsX(4y01, ‘Tate definition of the polarity of # major loop ts constatent with, and in fect depends upon, the principle of feedback syetens that ascerte that raver and levels alternate around s loop (Forrerter 19680). Ie te oo consistent with our intuitive characterization, for 1t aaounte to tracing around the major loop the Implications of « suall change in one of the levels, Hote that, when integrated with the definition of the pola feedback loop contatning any nuaber of rates, levels, ond avntliariee Le In th theorem about the steady-state behavior of the anooth of an exponentially roving or declining variable, Say y(t) = y,eF®, and tet x(t) be an exponcottat snooth of pC). That te, E+ Cy = 2)/T, for some thse constant Te Then in the steady aoe er ‘Tuat {2 to aay, the anooth of ye) Le ol sone exponential cate g, tut 1 "Lage behind” by a (actor of 1/C¢TEDe Thle property can be uted co computation of dominant polarity nity ly soe higher-order systems, 96 the Folloving extended exanple Example (2): The Selesnen Loop (Forrester 19608). neider the atvctare sham Un Figure 5 wich he santa vation gem, ae of hung of salenen su = is = sy/ser, ec Need sos, Indicated eatesnen a onans, osest eA = sHOOTH(DR TAD), Delivery rate average pe = a0, Delivery rate 48 = on - on, Rate of change of order backlog vere sats spleen alive hon Coote) 5S. = Salesman aatary (5/salennen/nonth) 35. 1 Revenue co salve (e/orser {ho = Tine to average orders (eoaths) DD = belivery delay Caostha) sod SE. > Salen effectiveness Corders/salesnaayoonth).Dontnant Polarity a ae Delivery Ajeet yg Tae, ta 7 \ @ Eases Figure 5: Te selesnen Loop fron Forrester (1968). The oyscen cone! ‘of a major poottive top and several ninor negative Loope. The nant polarity of the aysten can be determined (ro the eter of atlas: =» Ae this point we ace that we cam compute each of theee terms from their defining equations except dDRA/4OR and 408/408, These are fracttonal raves of change of exponential saoothe. As noted above, thei magnitudes depend pen the exponential rate of grouth of the ayeten, which Le In fact hat we afe Looking for in 48/45, Ae Feedback thinkers ve are accustomed ke on addition te clrcular causality, but this Le too much; ve have to [Let ue ask what ete expression for doainant polarity becones Lf and hen the ayetem hae reached some stendy state of exponential growth oF tem be groving oF declining exponentially ot the ar Thon by the property of exponenctal smoothing 779 teple derivative tion for dosinact polarity, 1 ee Tring Froog © - eich aay be cearranged in the plessing form ASSE ca + sant + 1000001 + 000),Dominant Polarity n 1g7 ecause of the stendy-scace assumption, che doainant polarity ve aten(a8/4s) = etanCed $0 e solution of the above polynontel. If g ts anell tothe tiae constants SKT, TAD, and’ DD, 40 presimably ‘tlvaye be, then this equation my be veticen ASSE = 1 + (sareramron) 9 + 0(82) 1+ GsareraDe00) 6 store the higher order terms ing are dropped"!!* because they re teatgatticancs Thue ~ DGreabIOD? We nave found thet the doatnant polarity of the salessan loop is ; posttive Uf « particular combination of parameters affecting the Loop te faveater than 1, The doninant polarity tn negative Lf the coablaation of Dperanecers Se lene than 1, The particular aix of parameters, ESASE/SS, + OF the open-loop atep gain, of the ayeten, We have thus concluded thats ‘The dominant polarity of the salesmen loop te positive 16 tee ‘open-loop atep gain ia greater than oa, and tu negative {f ite 1977), Te te tnteresting to note that the exponential st won Toop do not affect ite donteant polarity. tn this system they alfect not yhether the eysten grove oF declines, but at rapidly 1 moves Ln the direction that other parameters in the system ecace. (For further tavestigatton of the salesmen loop, see Rat (1982)) In conteest, in the following more complex structure, two particular ime constants do affect the dominant polarity of the aysten, The exanple sre 10 of incerest because ¢ extend joneviat the applicabtitty of the Example (8): corpor ‘The otructure show Le Figure 6 La the essence of the self Fegeterating process tehind the grovth of 2 product-deiven compar ‘The major Yoop (che revenue Toop) te positive, and the winor fe growth from product developeent.Dominant Polarity 2 168 coe Oe ata Aa justoene TEV Annual NL iitete per A tua co avectes Bites, TAC Figure 6: Corporate product-developaent structure, 42s, aPs_dnn snev aPh gon scx, ‘oo * tie av Ioce that the Last cree terme equal dP?/dPD,] Tats fore of the ith terme of the form I/(1#Tg) under the simplifying esounptton OF steady state exponential behavior, Thue, Dominant Polarity Py sumption of steady-state exponential Browth, this expression quale the fractLonal growth fate Be Sercing te equal £0 ey aulelplying theovgh by various denominators, and rearranging, lightly, we obtain the follovieg pleosing peljnontel ta, pe analogous to the ene found for the Saleanee Leon = (1 + ong) (1 + tae) CL + ATED Agate tgnoring the higher order terme {a the polynontal for g ve 8 Gra UOT Ts the ity of this product development system te determined by the quantity 0 RPP oT, or er LE Ae te grester then one the deainaat polarity of the structure te 16 4 tn ese than one the dontnane posttive and corporate growth ensue polarity 16 vegative and the company ‘Ae promised, here the expression chat determines the dominant polarity of the tnvolves some cine constants factors: The significance of each of these parameters for a healthy company La clear, The greater the ratio of revenue-to-developaent cort perDontnane Polarity » Product (RFP/CEP), and the greater fraction of revenues the company sends to MD (RDF), the greater the development effort the company can afford, steading to the prospect of # high continuing Flow of mew products tate production. The expressten shove that Long product=1iFette rarketplace (OT) alto contribute to the groveh potential of the company, wiitle Jong product development completion tines (CT) threaten that bawrving that che Saportance of these tue ne conacants 10 the grouth potential of the company Le derived he delays, In addition Co these well-known reputation effecte, completion Ktmes and obsolescence tines igure directly tn the potential of che Afurcaetons snd Loop Dostnance cen." Te 46 natural to ask how shite Ln loop dominance fe te the goel online relate Co bifurcations, The folloving analysts of a vell-tnom simple example euggeste that bifurcations occur at equlltbriun potnte that are ‘lve points of ahifeing loop doninance. People (92s aiterction and shitce In doinane polar In s bet Ke atGD ~ bx Interpret x as a population (ouch a6 right shales ited per Yeats spectttes for passenger pigecns) and" £(3) as ite BS Feprerent the fraction of the population hat ‘The dontaant polarity of he eysten ts Ey Dontnane Polarity 169 suc) = stgteon 6 070 = +e op eon» te EG) + HOO Cm ‘tuts ayoten bifurcates if the net bLeth factor f(x) risen to 4 peak ‘raph for y= FG; efore 1 declines to zero. Figure 7A shows euch Figure 72 shove the corresponding cate-versus-Level graph for the met BLrth rate 200. Faacriawan. RATS oF CHANGE cs % leven, joctated with the Bifurcating ayaten Figure 7: Graphe eco oe Ar Graph of y = £63) Bi Geape of he rates xf) a evel ta veraue theVontnant Polariey 2 170 16 the harvesting cate equals the value labeled b, In Figure 7h ks and maintaine « stable equtltbelum population x): tet) = bx ove ps the nee r nd If x Falls below x), the net rate afGH) ~ be Ae Note chat the slope of the aet bLEEH rate curve £00 + xO, elaer back §2 ye ye wEG) Ae aogative at x= xj. Stace chat slope equals that guaronteee that the dopinant polarity of the eysten Io 2 neighborhood ‘Te ayatem should be nicely stable and oal-secking around Hovever, Af the harvesting rate equals the value Labeled b, In Piquce 7B, the equllibetum population x 14 stable only if opproached fron above. If the harvesting rate b were to rise at all above bj, oF U6 the population x vere to fall « Dit below xp, the goal state of the system ovitehes suddenly to zero, Thus x; and b; detersine o bifurcation point of the # wed, determine 4 point of shifting Loop dominance tn ” [AL that eritheal point, the elope of the net birth rate curve mut x mocentarily equals the slope of the harverting curve. More precisely, in a netghtorhoed of %5 Do ee slope of HEC Cb = , ee) ieee wager) Gaus | steps = xf (*) Rares 1 ' ' 1 ' ' ' l : a a Figure 8: Illustration of the cuo pointe of shifting loop ‘doainance in the bifurcating systen. i= xf) = bee Hf Xt polnte of changing doninant polarity; BEER: Gutltorten poten ‘Tee pointe indicated by xy and x, im Figure 8 are, along with x = ©, the possible equilibrium pointe of the aysten, AL x * x) the ‘equtltbetun Ls unatable, since At ta a the interval of positive dost polarity. Any deviation tn etther direction {rom x= xj in reinforced, x away from xy at an Sacre Me x20 and xem, Je, since both occur in Intervals of doatnant enative polarity 0 which deviations from equilibrium are counterected. Thue Lo Figure 7, riences a bifurcation at b= by ond x ay, he goal state of the system actually ahifte co negative a7 Dominant Polarity x0 Intintty. Then a6 x de fore and sore Fapldly the ayatem eventually reeches the point where che slope of the tangent toy = xf(3) again equals che slope of the Line y+ byte AC that polat the dominant polarity shifts back co negative, and, ince K equals a negative nuaber tines = In thts range, the goal Cor x becomes ero, without (te second atte tn dontnant polertty, this bifurcating ayrtem would not end up at a finkse oats Mindful of the dang veraltzing fon one example, I conjecture that all Instances of bifurcation in continuous systems result from ahifee ‘tm loop dostnance. Wore precisely, {t seene reasonable that all such buturcations occur ot equtlthelun potnts which are also polnte at which the dominant polarity can shift fron negative to positive. The apparent sudden ie In goal state Le a consequence of 2 anift in dominant polarity. Suamaey and Cone ShUfCe tn Loop dontna ayeten dynamics, Tee cones rlgotous and reliable eftoLtions of Link and Loop polarities and shifts in loop polarities. The uch a set of det inten They have the d paper property that they ate formal definitions vith clear and temedtate comections to the Intuitive characterisations in common use.’ Furthermore, they result An severe] slaple slgebrate ud geometrte teste for determining dominant polarities and shifts in doatnsnce in staple ayetens.The concept of dominant polarity developed here suggests the possibility of Inking Uncce areas tn the atody of dynante feedback syitens, First, doninant polarity beats # cleer connection to the notion (of open-loop stendjnatace goin. That connection takes all mystery avay ‘rom "posl-aeoking positive Loops." Fron the potnt of view of dominant ity, "porttive Loops with gain Less thay one are sultt-loop systems th watch the negation polarity can dominate, In Posttive Loops with gain Less than one, the negative polarity alvays dominates. Second, the notton of dontnant polarity aime in the dtreceton of Ldentifyt0g dontnant loops and shiCte In Loop dominance in nonlinear use eigenvalue elastiettten and participation factors to entity dominant loops (H. Forrester 1982). “Tird, there La the dletiact ponatbility of rigorous underatanding the phenomena of bifurcation and perhaps even mathematical chaos in terms of ehiste ke Loop dominance, These connections to other {deas shout dynamic ayetene euggeet there tn cesson to develop the reason (oF # serious pursuit of the dees of dominant polarity ond shifts In Loop dominance: in applied aysten dynanice work che concept of shifting te Aplications for polley can be described and explained 1m corms of non-quantittative cavssl-loop dagrane. The concept of Loop ontnance becones an Inportent beidge Between complex Interactions in a imitation model and the Antuttions and understandings of people the rdeler hopes to influence, I€ may Help us C0 move our wore signif icant cote syatens, {fom the Forefront of ceaeateh to the arene of applicable 1, “The statement Le a prinetple of feedback systen dynoatces be vieved an an tapltete detinfeloe af stat is meant by the jynomtealiy sipntt icant.” 2. Deline the rete of change k to be an daflov to x If ky whatever ite sigh, ie added’ x, Tost tay k te ae Inflow ££ * one [eas wweether o aot _& steelt Te an outflow from x An nonquantieative causal-loop datagrams, we of tes ‘ne etgne Ds Konethele ‘now unasbiguously the polartty of feedback Loop cf the paraneters are urually given by the words uted to for dencribe the varlablee, 6 Graham (1976) for discus evel carves 4. See Goodnan (1974) oF Alt sd examplew of Fatervere 5. Mgher-order Minear syateas alto ca not change loop ddoatnence, but this siaple development of dominant polarity Ls fot sufficient to prove that facts Ove way to justity ie ie to appeat to elgenvaluc enalyete and participation matricees fee He Forteater (1982) for developments in the use of thete 6 one staple technique thet ought to vork vith ftret-order ‘ystena contatning t¥o loope of the aaee polarity ta to change ‘he of the leope acbitcarlly to the opposite polarity in the xpresaton fork and compute the shift in dowinent Presunably, # shite tn loop dominance between two negetive loope meena « chenge in the goel state of the systems173 2. The computation 121 mainant polarity * atgn(dh/@xd £01) = GA 99 | t v ao 7 = etenl-fn) + GD COD eee st we deel etth sore complex syateney OFT yy both cooceptusl and typographical, will cone TEMPLLSLCT® SPHhctattons cruscing thee fe will be clear when © pertian derivative te taten polarity seveais sMttts in Loop 9. the notion of dotnane polarity coves sbifee tn loop ied versions of enoniinensayaten, tlforte to blend be EEE oe etgeevtre thee etoer eppruch oy tse. 10, _ then che eolutten of the differential fe of the form ou here Kin a constant dependent on initial conditions, 11, Root-Locus analysis show chat the polyneatal Gera eae. Otto atvaye nae a real root fron negative £0 poritive ak decreases through tynantce erences to bifurcations, Allen Graham (1976), Introduction to Urban dpe, D4: The MIT Prete, Weight-Allon Setles). (1902), conference Report ~ Developing Hew ‘Concepts tn syaten Opaamices A teview of che 7th Incetnattonal 5 2 (ulate ‘Auhby, Ws toss (1956), Introduction co Cybernetice (Wew York: ‘Joh uiey and Son). Forsegteg, Jey H (10711972), world Dance (cameldae, Mi: “The Wit Press, Weight-hllen Serlesie (19680), "Market crowth ax Influenced by capital Tivestaent," Industrial Managenent Review, 9,2 (later, 1968) acs, (19600), erinciples of syetene (Cambridge, MA: The MIT Freee, uright-ation fortes Foreester, Machan (1982), 2 of Baste Macroccononte Theory! tLtaetton Polsey Avalyeta,” Pa.D. dtevercatlon, Maneachusetee Inatitute of ‘Technology, Conbridge, mA. 02139. Coodnan, Michael (1976), Study Noten tn syecen Dynami CCanbelage, Mkt Tee WIE Prone, WrIghtealion dertend; Graham, Alan K. (1977), Prtactpies of he Relationship between ‘Structure and tehavtior of Dynanie Systems, Pic. thesia Haenachunetts Institute of Technology, Coabrtige, Wt 02139. low, citbere ve (1960), method (Cenbrtage, ‘abo, Joel (1982), "Unkty-cain Posteive Feedback systene,” “Bynanten 8,2 (uiater 1982) 96-104, Richardeon, Coorge P, and Alexander Le Pugh IIT (1861), Introduction to Syetes Dynasties Hoselng vith ‘eawbedges Mar Ree WIT Paes et174 ‘lenmond, Barry (1980), "A New Look at an Old Fete “Resource Policy Concer, Thayer School of Engineering Dartaouth College, Hanover, MD. Roberts, Nancy, a¢ al. (1982), Intxoduction to Computer et (Readiog, Wat AddisoerWesleye 1939), “Inceracetons between the Haltipli ciple of Acceleration,” Review ex, 21 (hay 1938) 152795