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REGRESION LINEAL. Estos datos fueron calculados mediante la tcnica de promedio mvil.

PERIODO
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17

PERIODO
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17

DEMANDA REAL
9357
9050
9760
9560
9850
9555
9681
9662
9687
9646
9669
9666
9667
9662
9666
9665
9665

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17

CANTIDAD
REAL
9357
9050
9760
9560
9850
9555
9681
9662
9687
9646
9669
9666
9667
9662
9666
9665
9665

9357
18100
29280
38240
49250
57330
67767
77296
87183
96460
106359
115992
125671
135268
144990
154640
164305

1
4
9
16
25
36
49
64
81
100
121
144
169
196
225
256
289

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17

153

163468

1477488

1785

23409

1 Determino la ecuacin de la recta.

ti 2
i=1

t 2i
n

n
i=1

n X i t i X i . t i
Ecuaciones utilizadas b=

i=1

i=1

i =1

a=Xb t

^
X t =a+ bt
RESUMEN
PERIODO

CANTIDAD
REAL
153

163468

1477488

Ecuacin:
b=

[ 17 (1477488) ] [ (163468)(153) ]
=15.38
[ 17 ( 1785 )(23409)]

163468
^
X=
=9615.76
17
t^ =

(1+2+3+ 4+5+6+ 7+8+ 9+10+11+12+13+14 +15+16+17)


=9
17

a=9615.76 [ (15.38 )( 9 ) ]=9477.34


Y =a+bx Y =9477.34+15.38( X)

1785

23409

A travs de regresin lineal calculo el pronstico para los meses del primero al diez y siete
(1-17)
Y 1=9477.34 +15.38 (1 )=9492.72
Y 2=9477.34 +15.38 ( 2 )=9508.1
Y 3=9477.34 +15.38 ( 3 )=9523.48
Y 4 =9477.34+15.38 ( 4 )=9538.86
Y 5=9477.34 +15.38 ( 5 )=9554.24
Y 6=9477.34+15.38 ( 6 )=9569.62
Y 7=9477.34+15.38 ( 7 )=9585
Y 8=9477.34+15.38 ( 8 )=9600.38
Y 9=9477.34+15.38 ( 9 )=9615.76
Y 10=9477.34 +15.38 (10 )=9631.14
Y 11=9477.34+15.38 ( 11 ) =9646.52
Y 12=9477.34+ 15.38 ( 12 )=9661.9
Y 13=9477.34+ 15.38 ( 13 )=9677.28
Y 14=9477.34 +15.38 ( 14 )=9692.66
Y 15=9477.34+ 15.38 ( 15 )=9708.04
Y 16=9477.34 +15.38 (16 )=9723.42
Y 17=9477.34 +15.38 (17 )=9738.8

RESUMEN TABULADO

PERIODO

CANTIDAD REAL

9357

R.L. Y =Y =9477.34+15.38 ( X )
9492.72

9050

9508.1

9760

9523.48

9560

9538.86

9850

9554.24

9555

9569.62

9681

9585

9662

9600.38

9687

9615.76

10

9646

9631.14

11

9669

9646.52

12

9666

9661.9

13

9667

9677.28

14

9662

9692.66

15

9666

9708.04

16

9665

9723.42

17

9665

9738.8

RESUMEN AJUSTADO

PERIODO
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10

CANTIDAD REAL
9357
9050
9760
9560
9850
9555
9681
9662
9687
9646

R.L. Y= 9477.34+15.38(X)
9493
9508
9523
9539
9554
9570
9585
9600
9616
9631

11
12
13
14
15
16
17

9669
9666
9667
9662
9666
9665
9665

9647
9662
9677
9693
9708
9723
9739

GRAFICA REGRESION LINEAL

REGRESION LINEAL CASO: AGUA DE LA COSTA CARIBE


CANTIDAD REAL

R.L. Y= 9477.34+15.38(X)

10000
9800
9600
9400
9200
9000
8800
8600

10

12

14

16

18