NM 508 / NM 950 Tutorial 1

Exercise 1
Considering the following probabilities:

P(flooding) = 0.012

P(capsize flooding) = 0.98

P(capsize no flooding) = 0.146

Calculate P(flooding capsize).

Exercise 2
A serious event Z occurs if disjunction of events X1 or X2 occurs.
Event X1 occurs when a conjunction of events A, B and C occurs.
Event X2 occurs if a disjunction of events D or a conjunction of events E and F occur.
Occurrence of events A, B, C, D, E and F is governed by a stochastic Poisson process, with
the following 10-hourly rates of occurrences for each of them: A 0.00012 , B 0.0002 ,

C 0.00018 , D 0.0004 , E 0.0005 and F 0.0005 .

Draw the fault tree for the problem described above, using logical AND and OR
gates.

Calculate probability for at least one occurrence of either of events A, B, C, D, E and

F within time of 4,000 hours.

Calculate probability for at least one occurrence of event Z within time t = 4,000
hours assuming that events A, B, C, D, E and F are independent.

Given: Probability mass distribution of number of occurrences x within time t for a Poisson
t
x e
process is p x t
.
x!

Exercise 3

A top failure event T, of a system MACH1 occurs if events X1 and X2 occur.

Event X1 occurs if events A and B occur.

Event X2 occurs if event C or events D and E occur.

Events A, B, C, D and E are basic events and are independent. Their occurrence can be
modelled by a Poisson process. The respective failure rates per hour are given as follows:
A=0.0012, B= C=D=0.001, E=0.0002.
(i) Draw the logical fault tree for occurrence of the top failure event of the MACH1 system,
and assign the probability of top failure occurrence within 2,000 hours operation,
assuming there is no detectable deterioration in the failure rates in time.
(ii) Assign probability of failure of up to 3 out of 10 such systems, MACH1, , MACH10,
within the 2,000 hours operation.
Given:
Probability mass distribution for number of occurrences x of outcome of interest within
t
x e
, where is mean frequency of
time t for a Poisson process is p X x t
x!
observing the outcome of interest.

Probability mass distribution for observing of exactly r outcomes of interest in n number

n
nr
of trials. pR r 1 p p r , where p is probability of occurrence of outcome of
r
n
n!
interest on a single trial, and
.
r r!n r !
Probability mass distribution for observing an outcome of interest on exactly nth trial is
n 1
pN n 1 p p , where p is probability of occurrence of outcome of interest on a
single trial.