DISTRIBUCION GUMBEL

DISTRIBUCION DE PRECIPITACION NORMAL DE GUMBEL

m
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47

PERIODO

PPmax.24hr

(Aos)

x = (mm)
36.12
42.1
40
27.9
38
33.1
55.8
26.6

1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011

41.00

41.2
41
39.1
41.2
40.9
32.1
19.6
19.90

38
24.4
29
18
16.5
24.2
31.5
29.9
30.5
42.1
35.3
40.5
52.2
42
34.9
56.3
31.2
28.6
41.47
48.49
41.08
38.4
38
47
41
47.5
31.5
46.8
41
46.7

ORDEN
A -- Z

16.5
18
19.6
19.90

24.2
24.4
26.6
27.9
28.6
29
29.9
30.5
31.2
31.5
31.5
32.1
33.1
34.9
35.3
36.12
38
38
38
38.4
39.1
40
40.5
40.9
41.00

41
41
41
41.08
41.2
41.2
41.2
41.47
42
42.1
42.1
46.7
46.8
47
47.5
48.49
52.2
55.8

WEIBULL
F(x)=m/(n+1)
0.020
0.041
0.061
0.082
0.102
0.122
0.143
0.163
0.184
0.204
0.224
0.245
0.265
0.286
0.306
0.327
0.347
0.367
0.388
0.408
0.429
0.449
0.469
0.490
0.510
0.531
0.551
0.571
0.592
0.612
0.633
0.653
0.673
0.694
0.714
0.735
0.755
0.776
0.796
0.816
0.837
0.857
0.878
0.898
0.918
0.939
0.959

EXPONENCIAL

a
9.483
7.703
6.171
5.919
3.262
3.172
2.339
1.953
1.772
1.677
1.480
1.362
1.236
1.186
1.186
1.091
0.950
0.740
0.700
0.625
0.482
0.482
0.482
0.456
0.414
0.365
0.341
0.322
0.318
0.318
0.318
0.318
0.314
0.309
0.309
0.309
0.298
0.277
0.273
0.273
0.144
0.142
0.138
0.129
0.113
0.067
0.041

y
-2.249
-2.042
-1.820
-1.778
-1.182
-1.154
-0.850
-0.669
-0.572
-0.517
-0.392
-0.309
-0.212
-0.170
-0.170
-0.087
0.051
0.301
0.356
0.470
0.731
0.731
0.731
0.786
0.883
1.008
1.077
1.133
1.146
1.146
1.146
1.146
1.157
1.174
1.174
1.174
1.212
1.285
1.299
1.299
1.936
1.950
1.978
2.047
2.185
2.699
3.198

n=

48
48

2012

41.2

56.3

PROMEDIO

X
Sx

36.893
9.253

36.893
9.253

e=

2.718282

DESV. EST.

f ( x) e e

( x )

f ( x) e a

0.980

3.267

EULERIANO

POR METODO DE MOM

0.138607

PARAMETRO

32.72916

PARAMETRO

X 0.45

a e
y (x )

0.038

1.2825
Sx

BEL
PROBABIL
f(x)
0.0001
0.0005
0.0021
0.0027
0.0383
0.0419
0.0965
0.1419
0.1699
0.1870
0.2276
0.2561
0.2905
0.3055
0.3055
0.3358
0.3868
0.4770
0.4965
0.5353
0.6178
0.6178
0.6178
0.6340
0.6613
0.6942
0.7114
0.7245
0.7278
0.7278
0.7278
0.7278
0.7303
0.7341
0.7341
0.7341
0.7425
0.7583
0.7612
0.7612
0.8657
0.8674
0.8708
0.8789
0.8936
0.9349
0.9600

PROB. ABS
If(x) - F(x)I
0.0203
0.0404
0.0591
0.0789
0.0637
0.0805
0.0464
0.0214
0.0137
0.0171
0.0031
0.0112
0.0252
0.0198
0.0006
0.0093
0.0398
0.1097
0.1087
0.1271
0.1892
0.1688
0.1484
0.1442
0.1511
0.1636
0.1603
0.1531
0.1359
0.1155
0.0951
0.0747
0.0568
0.0402
0.0198
0.0006
0.0126
0.0172
0.0347
0.0551
0.0290
0.0103
0.0067
0.0191
0.0248
0.0038
0.0008

0.9626

max =
o
=
o> max

0.0170
0.1892
0.19630

OR METODO DE MOMENTOS:

1.2825
Sx

X 0.45 S x

OK

f ( x) e e

( x )

2. PARAMETROS DE DISTRIBUCION LINEAL DE GUMBEL

y

= DISTANCIA LINEAL (FORMULA DALRIMPLE)

TR = PERIODO DE RETORNO (Aos)

x = PRECIPITACION MAXIMA EN 24 hr. (mm)
= PARAMETRO DISTRIB. GUMBEL (MET. MOMENTOS)
= PARAMETRO DISTRIB. GUMBEL (MET. MOMENTOS)

=
=
FRECUENCIA DE DISTRI: Y

Tr

D.L.
y

PPmax
x

2
5
10
15
20
25
30
40
50
75
100

0.367
1.500
2.250
2.674
2.970
3.199
3.384
3.676
3.9019
4.3108
4.6001

0.000
43.551
48.965
52.019
54.158
55.805
57.146
59.252
60.880
63.830
65.918

TR
y ln ln(
TR

1.2825
Sx

X 0.45 S x

L DE GUMBEL

0.13861
32.72916

NCIA DE DISTRI: Y

TR
y ln ln(
)
TR 1

1.2825
Sx

X 0.45 S x

ITEM ESTACIONCUENCA
UBICACIN
REGION
LATITUD
LONGITUD
ALTITUD
PARAMETRO
OPERADOR
1 CHONTACA YUCACHON
AYACUCHO
131744
740133
3497
PP max
GRA-OPEMAN
24 hr
2 TAMBILLO
YUCATAMB
AYACUCHO
131306
740622
3328
PP max
GRA-OPEMAN
24 hr
3 BELLAVISTA YUCABELLA
AYACUCHO
131725
741239
3599
PP max
GRA-OPEMAN
24 hr
4 PUCALOMA VINC PUCA
AYACUCHO
131221
741757
3493
PP max
GRA-OPEMAN
24 hr
5 HUAMANGA YUCAHUAM
AYACUCHO
130851
741306
2773
PP max
GRA-OPEMAN
24 hr
6 QUINUA
PONGQUIN
AYACUCHO
130202
740807
3316
PP max
GRA-OPEMAN
24 hr
7 WAYLLAPAMP PONGWAYL
AYACUCHO
130400
741300
2470
PP maxSENAMHI
24 hr
8 SAN PEDRO CCACHISAN
AYACUCHO
130355
742131
2990
PP maxSENAMHI
24 hr

ITEM

PARAMETRO

PP max 24 hr

PP max 24 hr

PP max 24 hr

PP max 24 hr

PP max 24 hr

PP max 24 hr

PP max 24 hr

PP max 24 hr

1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975

REGISTRO

1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

ITEM
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8

ESTACION
CHONTACA
TAMBILLO
BELLAVISTA
PUCALOMA
HUAMANGA
QUINUA
WAYLLAPAMPA
SAN PEDRO CACHI

CUENCA
YUCAES
YUCAES
YUCAES
VINCHOS
YUCAES
PONGORA
PONGORA
CACHI

UBICACIN
CHONTACA
TAMBILLO
BELLAVISTA
PUCALOMA
HUAMANGA
QUINUA
WAYLLAPAMPA
SAN PEDRO CACHI

REGION
AYACUCHO
AYACUCHO
AYACUCHO
AYACUCHO
AYACUCHO
AYACUCHO
AYACUCHO
AYACUCHO

LATITUD
131744
131306
131725
131221
130851
130202
130400
130355

LONGITUD
740133
740622
741239
741757
741306
740807
741300
742131

ALTITUD PARAMETRO
3497
PP max 24 hr
3328
PP max 24 hr
3599
PP max 24 hr
3493
PP max 24 hr
2773
PP max 24 hr
3316
PP max 24 hr
2470
PP max 24 hr
2990
PP max 24 hr

OPERADOR
GRA-OPEMAN
GRA-OPEMAN
GRA-OPEMAN
GRA-OPEMAN
GRA-OPEMAN
GRA-OPEMAN
SENAMHI
SENAMHI

Parmetros de la distribucion de Gumbel

Con momentos ordinarios:

Con momentos lineales:

Parmetros de escala (m)

32.7287

Parmetros de escala (ml)

32.5624

Parmetros de concentracin (a)

7.2144

Parmetros de concentracin (al)

7.5024

DISTRIBUCION DE GUMBEL

f ( x) e e

Parmetros de la distribucion de Gumbel

Con momentos ordinarios:
Parmetros de escala

()

0.13861

Parmetros de localizacin

()

32.7292

( x )