I HC NNG

TRNG I HC KINH T
KHOA TI CHNH-NGN HNG
----------&----------

BI TP NHM

Cuc khng hong tin t chu 1997 1998:

Nguyn nhn v nh hng
GVHD: Nguyn Thiu Quang
SVTH: Nhm L2TV
L Th Loan

Lp 37K7.1

TTQT3_3

Trn Ton

Lp 37K7.1

TTQT3_3

Thnh Vin

Lp 37K7.1

TTQT3_3

Nguyn Th Diu Huyn

Lp 37K7.3

TTQT3_4

Trn Th Lan

Lp 37K7.3

TTQT3_3

Nguyn Th Thu Sng

Lp 37K7.3

TTQT3_3

Nng, thng 10 nm 2014

THANH TON QUC T

GVHD: Nguyn Thiu Quang
Mc lc
LI M U................................................................................................................................ 1
1. MT S KHA CNH L THUYT V KHNG HONG TI CHNH........................2
1.1. Khi nim............................................................................................................................... 2
1.2. Mt s loi khng hong ti chnh.......................................................................................2
2. CUC KHNG HONG TIN T CHU 1997-1998.....................................................3
2.1. Din bin................................................................................................................................... 3
2.1.1. Thi Lan................................................................................................................................. 3
2.1.2. Indonesia................................................................................................................................ 3
2.1.3. Hn Quc............................................................................................................................... 3
2.1.4. Philippines............................................................................................................................. 4
2.1.5. Malaysia................................................................................................................................. 4
2.1.6. Hong Kong............................................................................................................................. 4
2.2. Nguyn nhn............................................................................................................................. 5
2.2.1. Nn kinh t v m yu km....................................................................................................5
2.2.2. Ch t gi khng ph hp................................................................................................6
2.2.3. S tng ln ca dng vn nc ngoi...................................................................................7
2.2.4. Hot ng tn cng u c v rt vn ng lot.................................................................10
2.3. nh hng............................................................................................................................ 10
2.3.1. nh hng ti cc nc trong khu vc................................................................................11
2.3.2. nh hng ti cc nc ngoi khu vc...............................................................................13
2.3.3. nh hng ti Vit Nam......................................................................................................13
2.4. Gii php.............................................................................................................................. 17
2.4.1. Tng cng hp tc trong khu vc.......................................................................................17
2.4.2. Ci cch khu vc ti chnh..................................................................................................17
2.4.3. Huy ng vn h tr trong v ngoi nc...........................................................................18
2.4.4. i mi phng php qun l kinh t v m.......................................................................18
2.5. Bi hc kinh nghim............................................................................................................19
2.5.1. Bi hc kinh nghim cho th gii.........................................................................................19
2.5.2. Bi hc kinh nghim cho Vit Nam....................................................................................20
DANH MC TI LIU THAM KHO....................................................................................22

SVTH: Nhm L2TV

THANH TON QUC T

GVHD: Nguyn Thiu Quang
DANH MC BNG BI
Biu 1: Vn t nhn nc ngoi chy vo 5 nc ng , 1990-1996.....................................8
Biu 2: T l % gi tr cho vay bt ng sn v cng nghip ch bin ca cc cng ty ti chnh
Thi Lan trong tng d n (%).......................................................................................................9
Biu 3: Mc thu nhp bnh qun/ngi nm 1996 so vi nm 2002........................................12
Y
Bng 1: Tng trng xut khu ng (%)..............................................................................6
Bng 2: Thm ht ti khon vng lai (%GDP)...............................................................................6
Bng 3: Vn t nhn nc ngoi u t vo nm nc ng (Hn Quc, Thi Lan, Indonesia,
Malaysia v Philippines) t 1991 1996........................................................................................7
Bng 4: N ti chnh ca khu vc t nhn so vi GDP (%)...........................................................8
Bng 5: N ngn hn vo qu II nm 1997....................................................................................9
Bng 6: Vn t nhn nhn nc ngoi 5 nc ng (Hn Quc, Thi Lan, Malaysia,
Indonesia v Philippines), 1991-1996...........................................................................................10
Bng 7:Tnh trng thua l v ph sn trong h thng ti chnh (1/4/1997-31/3/1998).................11

SVTH: Nhm L2TV

THANH TON QUC T

GVHD: Nguyn Thiu Quang
1.

LI M U

S pht trin ca h thng ti chnh ton cu bn cnh vic mang li nhng c hi

ln cho mi quc gia, mi dn tc th ng thi cng tim n nhng nguy c khng hong.
Cuc khng hong tin t 1997-1998 bt u t thng 7 nm 1997 Thi Lan ri
nh hng n cc th trng chng khon, trung tm tin t ln, v gi c ca nhng ti
sn khc vi nc chu , nhiu quc gia trong c coi nh l "nhng con H ng
". Cuc khng hong ny cn thng c gi l Khng hong tin t chu
.Indonesia, Hn Quc v Thi Lan l nhng nc b nh hng mnh nht bi cuc
khng hong ny. Hng Kng, Malaysia, Lo,Philippines cng b nh hng bi s st gi
bt thnh lnh. Cn i lc Trung Hoa, i Loan, Singapore v Vit Nam ch b nh hng
rt t. Nht Bn cng khng b nh hng nhiu bi s khng hong, song nn kinh t
Nht phi kinh qua nhng kh khn kinh t di hn ca chnh bn thn mnh.
Vy ti sao cuc khng hong ny li din ra? Nguyn nhn do u? Din bin th
no? Hu qu ra sao? Nhng bi hc kinh nghim v nhng gii php khc phc, vt qua
khng hong rt ra c? tr li nhng cu hi trn, nhm chng ti nghin cu k
v trnh by ti theo cc ni dung sau:
I.
II.

Mt s kha cnh l thuyt v khng hong ti chnh

Cuc khng hong tin t 1997-1998:
1. Din bin
2. Nguyn nhn
3. nh hng
4. Gii php
5. Bi hc kinh nghim
Do kin thc v thi gian cn hn ch nn khng th trnh khi sai st, rt mong
nhn c s ng gp ca thy c v cc bn bi tiu lun hon chnh hn.

SVTH: Nhm L2TV

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THANH TON QUC T

GVHD: Nguyn Thiu Quang

2. MT S KHA CNH L THUYT V KHNG HONG TI CHNH

1.1. Khi nim
Khng hong ti chnh (Financial Crisis): L s mt kh nng thanh khon ca
cc tp on ti chnh, dn ti s sp v ph sn dy chuyn trong h thng ti chnh.
Khng hong ti chnh l khi nim bao trm c s dng chung cho mi loi
khng hong gn vi mt cn i v ti chnh v thng l gn vi ngha v phi thanh
ton nhiu hn phng tin dng thanh ton ti mt thi im no .
1.2.
-

Mt s loi khng hong ti chnh

Khng hong ngn hng (Banking Crisis): Khi khch hng rt tin t khi ngn hng, v ngn
hng cho vay phn ln s tin gi nn iu ny lm ngn hng kh c kh nng thanh ton ht
cc khon n. S rt tin t v lan rng c th dn ti s ph sn ca ngn hng, gy ra khng
hong ngn hng mang tnh h thng hoc s tng ln ca li sut tn dng. Khng hong tr nn
nghim trng hn khi ngn hng vn cho vay vo cc d n ri ro cao, khng hiu qu. Kt

qu l t l n xu tng, ngn hng mt vn v ri vo tnh trng ph sn.

Khng hong tin t (Currency Crisis):y cn c gi l khng hong t gi hi oi hay cn
cn thanh ton n ra khi hot ng u c tin t dn n s gim gi mt cch t ngt
ca ng ni t hoc trng hp buc cc c quan c trch nhim phi bo v ng tin ca
nc mnh bng cch nng cao li sut hay chi ra mt khi lng ln ngoi hi. Khng hong

tin t thng gn lin vi mt cuc khng hong kinh t thc s.

Khng hong kp (Twin Crisis): Xy ra khi khng hong ngn hng v khng hong tin t i

lin vi nhau, ci ny dn n ci kia.

Cc khng hong ti chnh khc: Khng hong th trng chng khon (Crisis of Security
Market), Khng hong n quc gia (National Debt Crisis), Khng hong ngn sch (Budget
Crisis),

SVTH: Nhm L2TV

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THANH TON QUC T

GVHD: Nguyn Thiu Quang
3. CUC KHNG HONG TIN T CHU 1997-1998
2.1. Din bin
2.1.1. Thi Lan
T nm 1985 n nm 1995, Thi Lan l nc c tc tng trng kinh t cao nht, tc
bnh qun hng nm l 9%. Cui nm 1996, bo co Trin vng kinh t th gii ca IMF
cnh bo nn kinh t Thi Lan tng trng qu nng v bong bng kinh t c th khng gi c
lu. Cng thi gian, th trng chng khon Thi Lan bt u c s iu chnh, c mc vn ha
th trng vn ln ch s th trng chng khon u gim.
Ngy 14 v 15/5/1997, ng Baht b tn cng u c quy m ln. Sau khi th ni
ng Baht ngy 2/7/1997, Baht lp tc mt gi gn 50%, n xung mc 56 Baht mi
i c 1 USD vo thng 1/1998. Ch s th trng chng khon tt t mc 1280 cui
nm 1995 xung cn 372 cui nm 1997. ng thi, mc vn ha th trng gim t
141,5 t USD xung cn 23,5 t USD. Finance One, cng ty ti chnh ln nht Thi Lan b
ph sn. Ngy 11/8, IMF tuyn b s cung cp mt gi cu tr tr gi 16 t USD v thng
qua mt gi cu tr na tr gi 3,9 t USD vo 20/8.
2.1.2. Indonesia
Thng 8/1997, ng Rupiah b gii u c tn cng, n ngy 14, p dng ch t
gi th ni hon ton, ng Rupiah lin tc mt gi. Thng 9, c gi Rupiah ln ch s th
trng chng khon u gim xung mc thp lch s. Trc khng hong, t gi hi oi
gia Rupiah v USD khong 2000USD/IDR, nhng trong thi k khng hong, t gi
ln n 18000USD/IDR.
Rupia mt gi lm suy yu bng cn i ti sn ca cc cng ty Indonesia, c bit
l khon mc n ngn hng nc ngoi tng ln. Do , nhiu cng ty y mnh mua
USD vo, bn Rupia ra, khin ni t thm mt gi v t l lm pht tng vt. Lm pht
km chnh sch ti chnh tht cht khin chnh ph phi b tr gi lng thc v xng, lm
gi 2 mt hng ny tng ln. Tnh trng bo ng tranh ginh mua hng bng pht,
ring Jakarta c 500 ngi cht do bo ng.Do thay i t gi hi oi v do nhiu
nhn t khc, GDP theo Dollar M ca Indonesia gim i.
2.1.3. Hn Quc

SVTH: Nhm L2TV

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THANH TON QUC T

GVHD: Nguyn Thiu Quang
u thng 11/1997, cc nh u t bt u bn chng khon hn quc vi quy m
ln. Ngy 28/11/1997, t chc nh gi tn dng Moody h th hng ca Hn Quc t
A1 xung A3, ngy 11/12/1997 li h tip xung B2. iu ny gp phn lm gi chng
khon Hn Quc thm gim gi.
Ngy 3/11/1997 t gi Won/USD l 966,2 n ngy 10/12/1997 tng ln l 1450.
ng Won mt gi lin tc, s mt gi nhanh chng ca ng Won buc ngn hng
trung ng Hn Quc cng b th ni ng Won. ng thi c s ci thin trong cn cn
thanh ton, mc thng d thng 11/1997 l 600 triu USD, so vi mc thm ht ca cng
k nm trc l 2,07 t gi USD
2.1.4. Philippines
Cui thng 6 u thng 7/1997, t nhng kh khn ni ti ca nn kinh t nht l
vic thm ht ln trong cn cn vng lai (13% GDP) v tc ng khng hong t Thi
Lan, Ngn hng trung ng Philippin b ra khong 2 t USD bo v ng Peso.
Ngy 1/7/1997 Ngn hng trung ng Philippin cng b ni rng bin giao
ng t gi ng Peso vi ng USD m thc cht l s ph gi ng tin khng chnh
thc nh Thi Lan. D tr ngoi t ca Philippin vo thng 4/1997 ch c mc 13,6 t
USD. y qu l t i bo v ng Peso => ng Peso mt gi
2.1.5. Malaysia
Ngay sau khi Thi Lan th ni ng Baht (2/7/1997), ng Ringgit ca Malaysia v
th trng chng khon Kuala Lumpur lp tc b sc p gim gi mnh. Ringgit gim
t mc 3,75 USD/MYR xung cn 4,20 USD/MYR. Nhng ngi tham gia th trng tin
duy tr ti khon bng ng Ringgit trng thi bn ra nhiu hn mua vo, vi d tnh v
s gim gi ca ng Ringgit trong tng lai. Kt qu l li sut trong nc ca Malaysia
gim xung, khuyn khch dng vn chy ra nc ngoi. Lng vn chy ra t ti mc
24,6 t Ringgit vo qu hai v qu ba nm 1997.
2.1.6. Hong Kong
Thng 10/1997, Dollar Hong Kong b tn cng u c. C quan Tin t Hong Kong
chi hn 1 t USD bo v ng tin ca mnh. T ngy 20/10 n 23/10, Ch s Hang
Seng gim 23%. Ngy 15/8/1998, Hong Kong nng li sut cho vay qua m t 8% ln
23% v ngay lp tc nng vt ln 50%. ng thi, C quan Tin t Hong Kong tuyn
chin vi gii u c, bt u mua vo cc loi c phiu thnh phn ca Ch s Hang Seng
SVTH: Nhm L2TV

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THANH TON QUC T

GVHD: Nguyn Thiu Quang
gim p lc gim gi c phiu. Chnh quyn mua vo khong 120 t Dollar Hong
Kong cc loi chng khon.
Cuc khng hong ny ngng li vo thng 9/1998. T gi gia Dollar Hong
Kong v Dollar M vn c bo ton mc 7,8 USD/HKD.
2.2. Nguyn nhn
2.2.1. Nn kinh t v m yu km
Thi Lan v mt s nc ng c gng thc hin B ba chnh sch khng th
ng thi. H va c nh gi tr ng tin ca mnh vo la M, va cho php t do
lu chuyn vn (t do ha ti khon vn). Kinh t ng tng trng nhanh trong thp
nin 1980 v na u thp nin 1990 to ra sc p tng gi ni t. bo v t gi c
nh, cc ngn hng trung ng ng thc hin chnh sch tin t ni lng. Kt qu
l cung tin tng gy ra sc p lm pht. Chnh sch v hiu ha (sterilization policy)
c p dng chng lm pht, v hnh chung y mnh cc dng vn chy vo nn
kinh t.
H thng ngn hng - ti chnh yu km:
H thng kim tra, kim sot ni b cc nc ng dn n mt lng n
lng vng khng l m khng kp pht hin kp thi. Cc nc c th trng tin t khng
hong u c mc nhp siu qu ln, trong khi t l d tr ngoi t trn n nc ngoi qu
thp. Trong nm 1996, t l ny ca Hn Quc l 31%, Indonesia ch khong 12%, Thi
Lan l 43,1%,
S yu km ca h thng ngn hng do cc nguyn nhn ch yu sau:
Chnh ph cc nc c s can thip (mc khc nhau) vo hot ng kinh doanh ca cc ngn
hng v cc cng ty ti chnh nhm hng cc hot ng ngn hng vo h tr cho chnh sch
pht trin kinh t. Khi cc ngn hng cho vay theo ch o ca chnh ph th lun tn ti mt tm
l li, gi nh ngm rng chnh ph s bo lnh v cu gip nu khon vay khng c i.
iu ny dn n c ch gim st, quy nh v hot ng thn trng c coi nh, vic qun l
tn dng lng lo v m rng qu mc khin cho hiu qu kinh t thp.
Bn thn cc ngn hng chm tr trong vic i mi hot ng v bo th trong vic hin i ha
cc hot ng nghip v ca mnh v ph thuc rt ln vo s tr gip ca chnh ph.
S yu km trong hot ng ca h thng ngn hng ti chnh th hin
trc ht trong vic qun l v cp tn dng trong nc c coi l km hiu qu v khng
cht ch, tc cho vay vt qu tc tng tin gi.

SVTH: Nhm L2TV

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THANH TON QUC T

GVHD: Nguyn Thiu Quang
Bn cnh , lng ln vn tn dng c u t vo lnh vc i hi vn
ln nhng chu k vn chm l bt ng sn v u t chng khon, cc khon tn dng
ny do nhiu l do khng c m bo. V vy, khi nn kinh t b nh n, xut khu
gim st lm cho cc doanh nghip vay vn khng c kh nng hon tr, cc t chc ngn
hng n b vc ph sn.
Ngoi ra, cc ngn hng cn chm tr trong vic a ra gii php i ph vi
tnh trng di chuyn vn ngoi t mt cch kh t do. Chnh sch qun l ngoi hi lng
lo to iu kin cho s chuyn i d dng gia ng bn t v ngoi t, dn n khng
kim sot c s ri i ca cc dng vn do s bn tho ng ni t i ly USD khi
xut hin cc du hiu bt n trn th trng tin t.
Mt cn i v m:
Nm 1996, tc tng trng kinh t ca cc nc ng bt u chng li, tng
trng trong xut khu ca ng Nam gim xung mt cch nhanh chng lm cho ti
khon vng lai b suy yu, nguyn nhn bao gm: (i) Tng trng thng mi ton cu suy
gim. (ii) ng yn mt gi. (iii) T gi hi oi thc hin hiu dng ca cc nc ng
ln gi. (iv) Lng cu v gi ca cc mt hng xut khu, c bit l in t suy gim.
Bng 1: Tng trng xut khu ng (%).
1994
1995
1996 1997
Thi Lan
19
20
-1
3
Hn Quc
14
23
4
5
Malaysia
20
21
6
1
Indonesia
8
12
9
7
Philippines
17
24
14
21
Hong Kong
11
13
4
4
Ngun: NHTG, East Asia The Road to Recoverty, 1998.
in hnh nh Thi Lan, thm ht ti khon vng lai nc ny vo 1996 ln n
8% GDP, trong khi con s ca 4 nc cn li khong 3,4-4,8%.
Bng 2: Thm ht ti khon vng lai (%GDP)
Hn Quc
Thi Lan
Malaysia
Indonesia
Philippines

1994 1995 1996

-0.96 -1.74 -4.42
-5.59 -8.05 -8.05
-6.07 -9.73 -4.42
-1.58 -3.18 -3.37
-4.6
-2.67 -3.77
Ngun: NHTG, Ch s pht trin th gii nm 2002.

2.2.2. Ch t gi khng ph hp
SVTH: Nhm L2TV

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THANH TON QUC T

GVHD: Nguyn Thiu Quang
Nu yu km v m l nhng nguyn nhn su xa dn n khng hong th cc
chnh sch neo gi gia cc ng tin khu vc vi ng USD, to nn mt h thng t
gi khin cng l nguyn nhn ch yu dn ti vic ph gi hng lot cc ng tin khu
vc.
Mc d khi pht t vic c nh ng Baht Thi Lan dn n hiu ng lan ta sang
cc ng Peso, Ringgit v Rupiah, nhng thc t, cc ng ni t ny b gim gi
trc xu hng ngy cng tng ca ng USD. Vic duy tr t gi hi oi c nh mt
cch cng nhc theo USD ca Thi Lan v cc nc ng Nam m nn kinh t c du
hiu chng li hoc i xung, trong khi nn kinh t ca M ang pht trin khin cho
cc nc ny thay v thc hin chnh sch th ni ng ni t, tr li gi ch thc ca n
li phi tiu tn hng chc t USD c gng duy tr mc cn bng gi to ti mc khng
th kim gi c na. c bit l Thi Lan, vic 13 nm lin Chnh ph Thi Lan duy tr
t gi c nh gia ng Baht v USD (khong 25 Baht/1USD) l ht sc phi kinh t, bi
trong khong thi gian ny, cc qu trnh kinh t th gii v khu vc din ra rt mnh m,
ng la M ngy cng mnh ln, ng Baht yu dn, cho n trc thi im xy ra
khng hong, ng Baht gim xung cn 30,27 Baht/1USD. Li dng iu ny, cc nh
u t nng cu USD ln 100 ln so vi bnh thng v y t gi vt xa t gi thc.
Kt qu ng Baht b b gy.
2.2.3. S tng ln ca dng vn nc ngoi
Chnh sch tin t ni lng v vic t do ha ti chnh M, chu u v Nht Bn
u thp nin 1990 khin cho tnh thanh khon ton cu tr nn cao qu mc. Cc nh
u t cc trung tm tin t ni trn ca th gii tm cch thay i danh mc ti sn ca
mnh bng cch chuyn vn u t ra nc ngoi. Trong khi , cc nc chu li thc
hin chnh sch t do ha ti khon vn theo hng khuyn khch dng vn nc ngoi
ngn hn. V d nh chnh sch ca Hn Quc l hn ch u t nc ngoi di hn di
dng FDI hay u t chng khon, trong khi ch cho php cc ngn hng vay ngn hn
nc ngoi. T gi hi oi c nh m nhiu chnh ph ng duy tr cng l yu t
khuyn khch dng vn nc ngoi do ri ro t gi c loi b. Li sut cc nc chu
cao hn cc nc pht trin. Chnh v th, cc dng vn quc t t chy vo cc
nc chu .

SVTH: Nhm L2TV

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THANH TON QUC T

GVHD: Nguyn Thiu Quang
T nm 1994 n 1997, lng vn t nhn chy vo cc nc ang pht trin tng
5 ln t 42 t USD ln 256 t USD. ng l ni thu ht mt lng ln dng vn ny,
chim khong 60% trong na u thp nin 1990 (theo NHTG 1998).
Bng 3: Vn t nhn nc ngoi u t vo nm nc ng (Hn Quc, Thi Lan,
Indonesia, Malaysia v Philippines) t 1991 1996.
(VT: T USD)
1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

- Vn t nhn rng
24.8
29.0
31.8
36.1
74.2 65.8
+ u t trc tip rng
6.2
7.3
7.6
8.8
7.5
8.4
+ u t chng khon rng
3.2
6.4
17.2
9.9
17.4 20.3
+ Vay thng mi v u t khc
15.4
15.3
7.0
17.4
49.2 37.1
- Vin tr chnh thc rng
4.4
2.0
0.6
0.3
0.7
-0.4
Ngun: NHTG, World Economic Outlook, 5/1998 v 3/2000.
Biu 1: Vn t nhn nc ngoi chy vo 5 nc ng , 1990-1996.

Ngun: Tnh ton t NHTG World Development Indicator 2002.

Mt khc, nhng xc tin u t ca chnh ph v nhng bo h ngm ca chnh
ph cho cc th ch ti chnh cng gp phn lm cc cng ty chu bt chp mo him
i vay ngn hng, trong khi cc ngn hng bt chp mo him i vay nc ngoi m
phn ln l vay n ngn hn v n khng t bo him ri ro.
Dng vn nc ngoi to nn s bng n tn dng trong khu vc. Trong thp
nin 1990, tn dng ngn hng cp cho khu vc t nhn tng ln nhanh chng. T cui
nm 1996, tng gi tr n ti chnh ca khu vc t nhn trn GDP ln ti 140% Hn
Quc v Thi Lan. Mc cung tin M2 Hn Quc, Thi Lan, Phillippines, Malaysia v
Indonesia tng gn 20%/nm trong nm 1996 v 1997.
Bng 4: N ti chnh ca khu vc t nhn so vi GDP (%)
Nc
Hn Quc
SVTH: Nhm L2TV

1991
103.1

1992
110.7
Trang 8

1993
121.3

1994
128.8

1995
133.5

1996
140.9

THANH TON QUC T

GVHD: Nguyn Thiu Quang
Thi Lan

88.6

98.4

110.8

128.1

142.0

141.9
Ngun: Radelet (1998).
iu nguy him hn l Chnh ph khng kim sot c n ca cc Ngn

hng v doanh nghip cng nh khng xy dng c khun kh php lut v nng lc
gim st trong qu trnh t do ha ti chnh. Trong c ch qun l yu km ny, c doanh
nghip sn xut ua nhau vay n mt cch liu lnh, s n vt qu tng s vn ca doanh
nghip t 200% n 400%.
im ng lu na l hu ht cc khon vay nc ngoi ngn hn c
u t di hn. N ngn hn nc ngoi lun lun ln hn so vi d tr ngoi t ca cc
nc ng vo thi im trc khi xy ra khng hong, c ngha l trong ngn hn nn
kinh t s khng c kh nng chi tr. Ch c 2 nc Malaysia v Phillipines trong s 5
nc b khng hong c n ngn hn thp hn d tr ngoi t.
Bng 5: N ngn hn vo qu II nm 1997
Nc
Hn Quc
Thi Lan
Indonesia
Malaysia
Philippines

N ngn hn nc ngoi
D tr ngoi t
T l n ngn hn
70.18
34.07
2.06
45.57
31.36
1.45
34.66
20.34
1.7
16.27
26.59
0.61
8.29
9.78
0.85
Ngun: ADB, Asian Development Outlook, 1999.
Mt t trng ln cho vay ca ngn hng v cc t chc ti chnh phi ngn hng

c tp trung vo khu vc bt ng sn. Indonesia, cc khon vay khu vc bt ng

sn tng 37%/ nm trong giai on 1992-1995 (tng tn dng ngn hng ch tng
22%/nm). Thi Lan, cc khon cho vay bt ng sn tng 41%/nm trong giai on
1990-1995 (tng tn dng ch tng 33%/nm). Hn Quc, cc khon cho vay ca ngn
hng tp trung ch yu vo cc tp on ln. T l n/vn c phn ca cc doanh nghip
cng nghip Hn Quc ln ti 317% vo cui 1996 (trong khi M l khong 100%)

SVTH: Nhm L2TV

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GVHD: Nguyn Thiu Quang
Biu 2: T l %
gi tr cho vay bt ng sn
v cng nghip ch bin ca
cc cng ty ti chnh Thi
Lan trong tng d n (%).
Ngun: Marcus Miller
and

Pongsak

Luangaram

(1998).
2.2.4. Hot ng tn cng u c v rt
vn ng lot
Nguyn nhn trc tip ca khng hong tin t Chu nm 1997 l nhng cuc tn
cng u c v vic rt vn ng lot khi cc nc chu . Khi pht hin nhng du hiu
suy thoi ca h thng ngn hng ti chnh khu vc, nhiu nh u c nc ngoi
tng cng hot ng u c tin t.
Theo thng k, nhiu nh u c trong tng s 2300 qu tn dng t nhn M, vi
ti sn trn 100 t USD nhy vo th trng khu vc ny trong thng 7 v 8/1997.
Ngoi cc qu do Soros kim sot cn c cc qu tn dng ln nh Tiger, Orbis, Pumas,
Panther v Jaguar. H mua ng Baht, Peso, Ringgit, Rupiah, SGD c tnh 10-15 t USD
u c, d tr ngoi hi nh nc cn kit cng lm cho tn cng u c thm ko di.
Cui cng th th trng bt ng sn ca Thi Lan v. Mt s th ch ti chnh
b ph sn. Ngi ta khng cn tin rng chnh ph kh nng gi ni t gi hi oi c
nh. Khi pht hin nhng im yu nghim trng trong nn kinh t cc nc chu , mt
s th ch u c v m tin hnh tn cng tin t chu . Cc nh u t nc ngoi
ng lot rt vn ra.
ng ri vo tnh trng cc nh u t khng cn tin rng d tr ngoi t
tr n ngn hn. C cc nh u t nc ngoi ln trong nc u mun chuyn vn ra.
Ngn hng i li vn cho vay, t chi o n v ngng cho vay mi; cn cc nh u t
chng khon th bn chng khon, i ra ngoi t v chuyn ra ngoi. Ring trong nm
1997, hn 20 t USD rng c a ra khi 5 nc ng b khng hong, trong khi
trong nm 1996 vn cn nhn c gn 66 t USD. (Bng di).
Bng 6: Vn t nhn nhn nc ngoi 5 nc ng (Hn Quc, Thi Lan,
Malaysia, Indonesia v Philippines), 1991-1996
VT: T USD.
SVTH: Nhm L2TV

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GVHD: Nguyn Thiu Quang
1996

1997

1998

1999

- Vn t nhn rng
65.8
-20.4 -25.6
-24.6
+ u t trc tip rng
8.4
10.3
8.6
10.2
+ u t chng khon rng
20.3
12.9
-6.0
6.3
+ Vay thng mi v u t khc
37.1
-43.6 -28.2
-41.1
- Vin tr chnh thc rng
-0.4
17.9
19.7
-4.7
Ngun: NHTG, World Economic Outlook, 3/2000.
2.3.

nh hng
2.3.1. nh hng ti cc nc trong khu vc
nh hng tiu cc
Cuc khng hong tin t nm 1997 khin cho nn kinh t ri vo tnh trng suy
thoi, tc tng trng gim st trm trng thm ch b m (-). Ngoi ra s ph gi ng
tin ca cc nc ng Nam gy ra hu qu nghim trng lu di v tc ng xu n
mi hot ng ca i sng kinh t x hi ca cc t nc.

Thi gian trc v trong cuc khng hong, cc nc u phi tiu tn s lng ngoi t ln

chng , gi cho ng tin khng b mt gi qu mc. in hnh nh:

Thi Lan s dng ti 15 t USD trong tng s 33 t USD d tr ngoi t ca Nh nc cu
nguy cho ng Baht,
Philippines cng s dng 20% tng s d tr h tr cho ng peso.
Cc nc khc nh Malaysia, Indonesia cng s dng nhiu t la M vo mc ch ni trn.
- Hn 20 ng bn t b ph gi lm tng cc chi ph n, n nc ngoi tnh bng ngoi t tng
( khong 25-40% ty theo mc ph gi ca ng tin). C th, n nc ngoi ca Thi Lan t
85 t USD ln 119 t USD; Malaysia t 29 t ln 36,5 t USD; Philippines t 43,5 t ln 54,4 t
USD; Indonesia t 109,3 t ln 150,5 t USD
ng tin b mt gi, nn kinh t v m khng n nh dn ti s rt vn t ca
cc nh u t, ngi cho vay trong nc v ngoi nc khin ngun vn tn dng cn
kit, th trng chng khon trm lng. Hng lot cc ngn hng, cng ty ti chnh thua l
nng n v lm vo tnh trng mt kh nng thanh ton hoc b ph sn, gii th, st nhp.
Bng 7:Tnh trng thua l v ph sn trong h thng ti chnh (1/4/1997-31/3/1998)
N

Tn

g s

NH

NH

NH

NH

NH

bn

NH

CP

st

cho

SVTH: Nhm L2TV

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THANH TON QUC T

GVHD: Nguyn Thiu Quang
h

gi

nh

Nh

vn

ch

ho

st

n
Th

108

g
56

59
%

Lan
Mal

60

41

aysi
a
Ind

%
228

16

56

11

one
sia
H

68

36
%

56

16

32
%

Qu
c
-

Ngun: ADB, Asian Development Outlook, 1999

H thng ti chnh v gy sc p ln ti lm pht. T l tht nghip tng vt, ch ring Thi
Lan sau khng hong khin 2 triu ngi mt vic lm, t l tht nghip Philippines t 9,5%
(nm 1996) tng ln 10,4% (nm 1997), ti Hn Quc t 2,5% (nm 1997) tng vt ln 8,6%
(thng 7/1998). ng thi thu nhp bnh qun u ngi st gim mnh, cho n nm 2002 vn
cha th hi phc bng mc ca nm 1996.
Biu 3: Mc thu nhp bnh qun/ngi nm 1996 so vi nm 2002

SVTH: Nhm L2TV

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THANH TON QUC T

GVHD: Nguyn Thiu Quang

Ngun: World ban Developmen Indicators 2004

Cui cng khc phc c hu qu t cuc khng hong, n nh nn kinh t
cc quc gia ny phi tiu tn mt lng ti chnh rt ln, theo c tnh xp x 10% GDP.
y l kh khn ln nht khng th gii quyt ngay c trong mt thi gian ngn.
nh hng tch cc
Cuc khng hong khng ch hon ton gy tc hi m mt chng mc no , n
l im dng m u giai don mi y trin vng:
- Vic chuyn sang chnh sch t gi linh hot s gip cc chnh ph gim thiu
c lng ngoi t can thip gi gi bn t nh thi gian trc , gip tng d tr
quc gia v lu di, ng thi gim gi ng bn t gp phn khuyn khch xut khu,
hng xut khu ca cc nc ny c thm cnh tranh ln trn th trng quc t nht l
trong tng quan so snh vi cc mt hng cng loi ca cc nc trong khu vc c ng
tin n nh hn.
- Cc yu t u vo tnh bng ngoi t, bao gm tin lng, t ai, dch v,
gim mt cch tng i cao so vi cc nc khc nn khi khng hong kt thc th chnh
cc nc ny li c li th thu ht vn u t, c u t trc tip v u t gin tip.
- Nu xt v lu di, th y l dp cc nc ny rt ra c bi hc iu chnh li
cc chnh sch v m, iu chnh li c quan pht trin kinh t. Nhng kt qu ca cc ci
cch ny s to ng lc thc y s pht trin mt cch bn vng hn.

SVTH: Nhm L2TV

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THANH TON QUC T

GVHD: Nguyn Thiu Quang
2.3.2. nh hng ti cc nc ngoi khu vc
Cuc khng hong tin t Chu c nhng nh hng nghim trng khng
nhng i vi nn kinh t ca cc nc trong khu vc m i vi c cc nc khc trn
th gii c bit l M.
-

Cuc khng hong lm cho th trng xut khu ca M b co li do ng la ln gi, nn kh

nng cnh tranh ca hng ho M gim xung. Ngi ta tnh rng t nht th trng xut khu ca
M gim 25%, bao gm phn ln l th trng ca cc nc b khng hong. iu ny lm cho
tnh trng nhp siu ca M ngy cng trm trng. Nm 1997, M nhp siu l 176 t USD, cao
hn nhiu so vi 148 t USD ca nm 1996.

ng thi hng nhp khu vo M tr nn r mt cch tng i do ng tin ca cc nc b

ph gi so vi ng la M. iu lm cho gi c trn ton b th trng M phi gim xung

theo, tc l lm cho li nhun ca cc nh sn xut M gim v u t kinh doanh cng gim.

Ngoi ra, cc nc khng hong phi thi hnh chnh sch tht cht tin t khc phc cuc
khng hong theo iu kin ca IMF nn h khng c kh nng tr s tin mua v kh hoc phi
ko di thi hn thanh ton cho nhng hp ng vi M.
2.3.3. nh hng ti Vit Nam
L mt quc gia nm trong khu vc khng hong, trong bi cnh quc t ho cao
nh hin nay, r rng Vit Nam khng trnh khi nhng tc ng trc tip v gin tip,
ngn hn v di hn, tt v xu ca n n tt c cc lnh vc kinh t - x hi ca t nc.
V thng mi
So vi cc nc, t trng thng mi ca Vit nam vi cc nc trong khu vc
Chu ng mt vai tr ht sc quan trng. Theo cc s liu c tnh th khong 70%
kim ngch mu dch ca Vit Nam l vi cc Chu v ch yu c thanh ton bng
USD hoc vng. Nhng khi ng tin cc nc b ph gi mnh s tc ng xu ti cc
doanh nghip c quan h kinh doanh vi cc nc trong khu vc. Ngoi tr ng la
Singapore v ng Yn Nht mi b mt gi trn di 20%, cn cc ng tin khc trong
khu vc b ph gi t 80% n 250% so vi ng USD. Trong khi ng tin Vit
Nam mi ch mt gi cht t, khong trn 10% so vi ng USD.

V nhp khu: Hng nhp khu t cc nc ASEAN vo Vit Nam vi mc r gn nh tng

ng vi mc ph gi ca ng tin cc nc. Do hng nhp t cc nc s ln t hng ni ca
SVTH: Nhm L2TV

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THANH TON QUC T

GVHD: Nguyn Thiu Quang
chng ta ngay ti th trng Vit Nam. Chnh iu ny khuyn khch cc nh xut khu ca cc
nc tng lng hng bn sang Vit Nam, ng thi khuyn khch cc doanh nghip Vit Nam
nhp hng do gi r hn bng c hai con ng chnh ngch v tiu ngch (bun lu qua bin
gii). Hin nay, cc doanh nghip trong c nc ta cn tn kho nhiu hng ca cc nc s b l
nng v gi cc hng ho ny gim nghim trng. Tuy nhin i vi cc mt hng nh cc loi vt
t, nhin liu, my mc phc v cho sn xut u c nhp khu kh d dng nh thu sut
thp, r rng y l mt li m cuc khng hong trong khu vc em li cho Vit nam. Theo bo
co ca B thng mi gi my mc thit b gim t 20- 40% so vi trc khi xy ra khng
hong, gi nguyn liu nha gim 10- 30%, linh kin in t gim 10-30%, bng x cc loi gim
10-15%. y thc s l iu kin thun li cho cc doanh nghip Vit nam tn dng gim chi
ph u vo .
V xut khu: i vi th trng cc nc ASEAN kim ngch xut khu ca Vit nam chim t
trng khng di 20%, th trng Chu chim 40% trong tng kim ngch xut khu ca Vit
nam. Tnh chung, Cc mt hng xut khu ch yu gm : du th, than , cao su, c ph ht, go,
dt may, da giy v hi sn . Do ng ni t ca cc nc b khng hong mt gi hn so vi
ng Vit Nam nn theo nguyn l xut khu hng ho ca Vit nam sang cc nc ny s b hn
ch do gi ca cc hng ho ny tr ln t tng i v nhu cu ni a ti cc nc b khng
hong gim st. Mt khc c cu hng xut khu ca Vit nam cng ging nh c cu hng xut
ca cc nc ASEAN do chc chn v xut khu ca Vit nam hin ti v trong tng lai s c
s st gim ng k. Do vy ngun thu t xut khu s gim v hai yu t : Th nht, gi xut
khu h th doanh nghip nh sn xut hng xut khu c th phi ngng sn xut v doanh thu
khng trang tri cho cc yu t u vo. Th hai, nhng doanh nghip ln c th tm c th
trng khc khi b p gi, nhng lng xut khu gim i, ng thi doanh thu cng gim xung
do gi xut khu h. Ring su thng cui nm 1997, li tc ca Vit Nam ch tnh t xut khu
ca mt hng nng sn b mt khong 500 triu USD. ng thi, do gi c dch v, sinh hot
hin nay Vit Nam cao tng i,nn lng khch du lch vo Vit Nam cng b gim mnh
i vi Ngn sch Nh nc
V thu ngn sch : Nh phn tch phn trn, do tc ng ca cuc khng hong lng hng
nhp s c xu hng gia tng v vy thu thu t nhp khu s tng ln. Song theo chng ti, xt
v di hn th mc tng thm s khng nhiu v m bo cc iu kin cho qu trnh hi nhp
v kinh t Vit nam phi ct gim hng lot thu cc mt hng nhp khu. Do tc ng ca cuc
SVTH: Nhm L2TV

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THANH TON QUC T

GVHD: Nguyn Thiu Quang
khng hong s dn n thu ngn sch Nh nc c hai hiu ng tri ngc nhau : Mt l : c
kh nng tng thu thu xut nhp khu. Hai l : gnh nng n nn v chi ph nguyn vt liu tng
ln c th lm cho cc doanh nghip sn xut Vit nam b nh n thm ch l ph sn v nh
vy tc ng ca khng hong s lm gim thu ngn sch
V chi ngn sch : Trong thi gian ti do VN mt gi 10-15% do nh hng ca cuc khng
hong ln vic chi ngn sch Nh nc s tng ln i ph vi lm pht c th ln cao v chi
tr n nc ngoi. Cc khon n tnh bng VN ca Nh nc v cc doanh nghip s tng ln
do VN mt gi s l gnh nng cho cc doanh nghip v Nh nc, lm gim ng k d tr
quc t ca Vit nam.
i vi lnh vc Ti chnh Ngn hng

Sc p gim gi ng Vit Nam trn th trng hi oi:

Do ng tin ca cc nc trong khu vc mt gi t 30-70% nn trn thc t VN
ln gi so vi ng tin cc nc ny v gy sc p ph gi. Thc t, tm l lo s VN
ph gi dn n vic vi vng chuyn t VN sang USD tch tr, y t gi USD
trn th trng t do tng mnh trong mt thi gian, c thi im ln ti 1USD=14.600
VN. i ph li NHNN phi dng nhiu bin php i ph nh tung ngoi t ra
bn, nng mc bin dao ng, tng cng cc bin php kim sot ngoi hi.

nh hng n c cu tin gi ca h thng ngn hng:

Cuc khng hong gin tip tc ng mnh ti c cu tin gi gia ng Vit
Nam v ngoi t. Vo thi im u nm 1998, lng tin gi bng VN tng chm trong
khi tin gi bng ngoi t tng kh nhanh ( k c tin gi ca dn c v ca cc doanh
nghip). Nhiu doanh nghip gi li ngoi t trn ti khon m khng bn li cho NHNN
trnh ri ro do s mt gi ca VN. Tnh hnh ny gy nn s mt cn i gia cung
cu ngoi t to sc p khng nh ti t gi VN v gy nhng xo trn bt n trn th
trng ngoi hi nc ta.

Tc ng n hot ng giao dch ngoi t

Giao dch trn th trng ngoi t lin ngn hng cng nh th trng ngoi t ni
chung b gim st. Trn th trng ngoi t lin ngn hng tnh t u nm n thng
3/1998, cc hot ng giao dch c chiu hng gim st , cc ngn hng thng mi ch
tin hnh mua vo m khng bn ra ngoi t dn n cu vt xa cung gy mt cn i
cung cu ngoi t t gy sc p tng li sut v d lm mt n nh h thng ngn hng.
SVTH: Nhm L2TV

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THANH TON QUC T

GVHD: Nguyn Thiu Quang
Doanh s mua 6 thng cui nm 1997 t 2,5 t USD, gim 5% so vi 6 thng u nm;
doanh s bn t 2,6 t USD gim 1% so vi 6 thng u nm.

Tng gnh nng v n cho cc doanh nghip

Khng hong tin t tc ng tng t gi hi oi gin tip lm tng thm cc
khon n nc ngoi. c bit l cc khon n n hn thanh ton, nhiu doanh nghip
khng mua c ngoi t hoc phi mua vi gi cao chu l rt ln. T gi tng t bin
cng gy kh khn cho cc doanh nghip trong khi gi hng ha trong nc khng tng
nhiu.

Gy sc p vi li sut ng Vit Nam

Ngoi t tng gi mnh lm nhu cu vay vn ng Vit Nam do li sut thp hn
v trnh ri ro v t gi song khi nhu cu vay vn bng VN tng ln gy mt cn i
cung cu v tin trn th trng, to sc p tng li sut ng ni t. nh hng khng nh
ti chnh sch li sut nhm khuyn khch u t kinh doanh sn xut i vi nn kinh t.
Tt c cc mc nh hng trn ti lnh vc Ti chnh e da s mt n nh ca h thng
Ngn hng Vit Nam. Th hin s kh khn ca cc NHTM v huy ng vn, kh nng thanh
ton trong nc v quc t.
i vi lnh vc u t
i vi u t trong nc:
Nu sn xut hng tiu th trong nc khng nhp nguyn liu t bn ngoi th
khng chu nh hng g. Trong trng hp u t sn xut hng xut khu khng nhp
NVL t nc ngoi th nh u t s c hng li nhun do VND b mt gi so vi
USD. T ngn sch nh nc s tng ln.
Bn cnh hot ng huy ng vn ca Ngn hng gp nhiu kh khn nn ngn
hng mi ch p ng c c khong 45-46% nhu cu v vn cho cc doanh nghip
quc doanh. Trong khi vic cc nc trong khu vc ph gi ng ni t lm cho
hng sn xut t cc nc ny tr ln r tng i v cnh tranh gay gt vi hng sn xut
ca Vit Nam. Nh vy cuc khng hong lm cho vic u t m rng sn xut ca
cc doanh nghip gp kh khn do thiu vn v b cnh tranh gay gt bi hng ho r t
cc nc trong khu vc.
i vi u t trc tip ca nc ngoi:

SVTH: Nhm L2TV

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THANH TON QUC T

GVHD: Nguyn Thiu Quang
S gim st u t trc tip vo Vit Nam t cc nc ang chu tc ng trc tip
hoc c lin quan n cuc khng hong. Bi ng tin ca h b mt gi, s khng c li
th nu chuyn i ra USD u t ra nc ngoi.
i vi cc nc khc trn th gii, v c bn lu di cc nh u t s nhn nhn
khu vc Chu trong c Vit Nam nh mt khu vc pht trin khng n nh. Do
mi trng v m khng sc li ko h u t vn, cng ngh v k thut qun l
vo.
Tc ng i vi tin trnh hi nhp kinh t Vit nam vo AFTA , APEC v WTO.
Theo cc mc tiu ca AFTA : tng chu chuyn thng mi ni b gia cc nc
ASEAN v th thng lng cnh tranh thng mi ca ton ASEAN vi th gii, to lp
khu vc hp dn u t trc tip nc ngoi vo khu vc v lm cho nn kinh t ASEAN
thch ng vi mi bin i ca nn kinh t th gii.. th cuc khng hong ti chnh tin t
trong khu vc hon ton nh hng n mc tiu v cc nh hng t ra. Do tin
trnh rt ngn thi hn thc hin AFTA ca mt s nc thnh vin trong bi nh hin nay
l ht sc kh khn. V vy i vi Vit nam tin trnh hi nhp vo nn kinh t khu vc v
th gii bng vic gia nhp ASEAN, APEC, WTO chc chn s khng trnh khi nhng
tr ngi.
2.4.

Gii php
2.4.1. Tng cng hp tc trong khu vc
Ngay t nhng thng u xy ra khng hong, cc nc trong khu vc tm ra
gii phi l phi hp, on kt vi nhau to ra sc mnh tng hp, cng nhau vt qua
khng hong. S hp tc ny c c th ha bng vic thnh lp nhng th ch ti
chnh- tin t cho khu vc nh Qu tn dng chu , Ngn hng thanh ton b tr a
bin ASEAN, hay tha thun gia cc b trng ti chnh ASEAN v vic khuyn khch
s dng ng bn t trong thanh ton cc giao dch thng mi ni b ASEAN trn c s
cc tha thun song phng nhng vn ly gi tr ng USD tham kho t gi chuyn
i gia cc ng tin, tng cng, xc tin vic trao i trc tip hng ly hng.

2.4.2. Ci cch khu vc ti chnh

Cc nc ng thc thi cc bin php, chnh sch sau ci cch khu vc ti
chnh:
Xa v gim n xu, ti vn ha cc th ch ti chnh
SVTH: Nhm L2TV

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THANH TON QUC T

GVHD: Nguyn Thiu Quang
ng ca cc th ch ti chnh v
Tng cng gim st v p dng cc tiu chun qun tr, k ton mi i vi cc t chc tn dng
v ti chnh khc
y mnh chuyn mn ha cc th ch ti chnh
Tng cng gim st v iu tit cc t chc tn dng ng thi nng cao tnh k
lut trn th trng
2.4.3. Huy ng vn h tr trong v ngoi nc
S h tr ti chnh khn cp ca cng ng quc t l nhn t c hiu lc tc th v
mnh m nht ch ng cuc khng hong, trnh s lan rng v hu qu lu di trong
v ngoi nc. Da vo chng trnh h tr IMF, WB v cc t chc ti chnh quc t
khc.
i vi Thi Lan, nc chu tc ng mnh m nht, vo giai on u ca khng
hong, sau nhng c gng vn ng khu vc v quc t ti phin hp IMF ch tr Tokyo
thng 8/1997, cc t chc ti chnh quc t cam kt h tr cho ngc ny 17,2 t USD,
trong IMF v Nht Bn mi bn gp 4 t USD, ngn hng th gii (WB) v ngn hng
pht trin chu (ADB) gp 2,7 t USD; Australia, Malaysia, Singapore, Hng Kong,
Trung Quc mi bn gp 1 t USD, Hn Quc, Brunei mi bn gp 500 triu USD. ng
lu l nhn khon tn dng ny, chnh ph Thi Lan phi chp nhn gii php c gi
m IMF a ra: Vi ngn sch, Thi Lan phi tng thu VAT t 7-10%, va gim chi tiu
10%; ng ca cc cng ty ti chnh yu km v duy tr d tr ngoi t t nht 25 t USD;
gi t l lm pht 8-9%; gim thm ht ti khon vng lai xung cn 5% GDP trong nm
1997 v 3% GDP trong nm 1998; ci t c cu v st nhp mt s ng ch ti chnh.
i vi Hn Quc th sao? nhanh chng khc phc khng hong, chnh ph
ku gi cc t chc ngn hng nc ngoi h tr ti chnh, cng c ngun vn u t
trong nc. Theo cng b ca IMF, vo u thng 12/1997 t chc ngn hng quc t v
cc nc khc ng cho Hn Quc vay 57 t USD. Hot ng ca IMF tr nn tch cc
hn khi Hn Quc b cun vo vng xoy khng hong v khi ng Rupiah mt gi mnh.
i ly cc khon h tr, ngoi nhng cam kt nh Thi Lan, cc nc ny cn phi
thc hin nhng chnh sch m ca lnh vc ngn hng.
2.4.4. i mi phng php qun l kinh t v m
Hn Quc, Thi Lan v Indonesia v ang thc thi mt ch t gi hi oi
linh hot v c ch n nh gi c. C th, cc nc t b ch t gi hi oi neo v
SVTH: Nhm L2TV

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THANH TON QUC T

GVHD: Nguyn Thiu Quang
hng ti ch mc tiu lm pht. ng thi, cc nc n lc gia tng lng d tr
ngoi hi nh nc ca mnh. T 1997 n 2005, nm nc b nh hng nng nht ca
khng hong tng lng d tr ngoi hi ca mnh ln bn ln, t 378 t USD.
2.5.

Bi hc kinh nghim
2.5.1. Bi hc kinh nghim cho th gii
Phi c cng c iu tit lung vn
Do thiu cc bin php kim sot, cc nc chu ri vo tnh trng qu ph thuc vo
nn ti chnh bin ng t bn ngoi- chnh l cc khon vay ngn hn. Cui nm 1996, cc
nc ng n ngn hng Chu u 328 t USD, ngn hang Nht bn 260 t USD v ngn
hng M l 46 t USD v hu ht cc khon vay u l vay theo hnh thc ngn hn (< 1 nm ).
Khi cuc khng hong xy ra, cc ngun vn ngn hn bin mt nhanh nh khi xut hin
v khng h c mt cng c iu tit hp l no dnh cho n. Vn t do ha th trng vn
cng rt quan trng, khng phi tnh c 2 nc chu l n v Trung Quc t b nh hng
bi cuc khng hong m v 2 quc gia ny khng t do ha th trng vn. Ngoi ra, trong c
nc t do ha th trng vn th cng khng phi ngu nhin nh nc khng ch tt nht tc
ng ca khng hong , Singapore chnh l nc c h thng php lut c thc thi tt nht.
Cn xy dng hnh lang php l ph hp
S gp khng t ri ro khi m ca nn kinh t ca cc nc ang pht trin vi th trng
vn quc t m cha xy dng h thng php lut vng chc v i ng cn b lim khit.
Thi im trc nm 1997, h thng gim st tn dng ca ngn hng qu lng lo dn
n s pht trin qu mc ca th trng tn dng nhiu nc chu nh Indonesia, Malaysia,
Philippines, Hn Quc v Thi Lan ko theo vic u t d tha vo mt s ngnh kinh t. Vic
d tha ngun vn tn dng cn dn n tnh trng lng ph, vi cuc chy ua s hu ta nh
cao nht th gii cc nc chu l mt v d. T hn vic tha tin u t cn dn ti tnh
trng pht trin bong bong ca th trng bt ng sn, t quay li thi trng tn dng, v cc
ngn hng li cho vay nhiu hn gi tr th chp, nn khi khng hong xy ra, hn ai ht ngn
hng phi hng chu hu qu nng n nht.
Vic gim st lng lo ca ngn hng cn cho php cc ngn hng c t l vn lu ng
khng ph hp. Theo s liu nm 1997 ca ngn hng thanh ton quc t (BIS) th Philippines
l 17%, Hong Kong 18% v Singapore l 19%, cc t l ny cao hn rt nhiu so vi tiu chun
ti thiu quc t.
SVTH: Nhm L2TV

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GVHD: Nguyn Thiu Quang
Nguy c d tha vn
S mt cn bng trn th trng ti chnh th gii khin chnh ph ca cc nn kinh t mi
ni kh c th ngn chn trong tm kim sot ca h. Ngn kh ca hu ht cc nc Chu
hoc cn bng hoc thng d, v khng h c lm pht. Cuc khng hong xy ra phn nhiu
nguyn nhn do nhng thay i v m hnh hot ng ca trung gian ti chnh quc t.
Th nht, s m rng ng k ca kh nng thanh ton quc t trong thp nin 90 lm
gia tng tnh cnh tranh trong dch v ti chnh trn ton th gii. V th cc gim c ti chnh
buc phi nhng khon li nhun cao hn thng qua cc d n u t mo him.
Th hai l chnh sch kinh t v m ca cc cng quc ng vai tr quan trng trong s
m rng ca kh nng thanh khon quc t.
Tuy nhin tnh trng mt cn bng ny khng ko di , vic tng ngun vn gia tng sc p
i vi vic tng t gi hi oi, t lm trm trng thm tnh trng thm ht thng mi. V
khi th trng to sc p gim gi ng tin, cc nh u t t ngt rt vn, khin tnh hnh
kinh t ti chnh chu chao o.
2.5.2. Bi hc kinh nghim cho Vit Nam
Khi khng hong xy ra, Vit Nam l mt nc khng b cun ht vo vng xoy ca n,
v m ca cha rng v s ch ng vt trc ngn chn. Nhng trn mt s mt th tc
ng ca cuc khng khong l khng h nh.
Lng vn u t trc tip nc ngoi ng k gim manh, nm 1997 l 5.591 triu USD
ti nm 1999 cn 2.565 triu USD. Lng vn thc hin nm 1998-1998 cng gim nhng t
hn. Tc tng kim ngch xut nhp khu cng gim nhanh, tc tng GDP cng gim st, t
8.15% xung cn 4.77%. Trong thi gian tng ng tc tng trng cng nghip xy dng
v dch v cng gim, tc tng gi tiu dung li ln cao, lng khch quc t cng b gim st,
lng kiu hi thp.t thc t cho Vit Nam nhng bi hc ng nh :
Vit nm cn phi c chin lc , quy hoch v cc bin php s dng vn vay nc ngoi , l
ODA vay ngn hn v di hn mt cch hiu qu nht v m bo hon tr ng thi hn. Vit
Nam cn c h thng lut php , qun l nh nc cht ch qun l vn cc khon vay nc
ngoi ngy cng gia tng. Khuyn khch vay vn nc ngoi di hn, hn ch v qun l cht ch
vn ngn hn, thn trng vi nhng lung vn ngn hn chu chuyn t.
Cn duy tr mt th cn bng tng i gia cc mc tiu kinh t v m trong chin lc pht
trin kinh t nh : lm pht, tng trng, t gi hi oi, li sut, ngn sch, cn cn thng mi
v cn cn thanh ton . Cc chnh sch nn c phi hp ng b, cht ch vi nhau t c
hiu qu tt nht.
SVTH: Nhm L2TV

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GVHD: Nguyn Thiu Quang
S thm ht cn cn vng lai l vn c nhiu quc gia nhc ti, nn cn c quan tm v
c nhng bin php iu chnh thch hp.
Tip tc i mi v m ca nn kinh t, xy ng nn kinh t th trng hin i, quc t ha nn
kinh t, xy dng lc lng bn trong vng chc c th chng chi vi cc tnh th nguy cp
ca nn kinh t bn ngoi.
Lc chn mt cch ph hp v tp trung cc mc tiu u tin trong qu trnh pht trin, la chn
vng, ngnh, sn phm,th trng, quy m d n, nh nc nh hng u t theo c cu v quy
m hp l nht pht trin ton x hi.
S pht trin ca th trng phi i km vi pht trin h thng cc ngn hng mnh, c kinh
nghim trong vic iu chnh chnh sch tin t trong kinh t th trng
Va m rng cnh ca th trng vn, nhng khng c php lng lo trong vic qun l v cc
quc gia nn duy tr nhng t l hp l nh quan h vn trong nc vi vn nc ngoi; quan h
gia vn ngn hn, trung hn v di hn khi gi vn nc ngoi; quan h gia thi hn vay v
vn c u t

SVTH: Nhm L2TV

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GVHD: Nguyn Thiu Quang

DANH MC TI LIU THAM KHO

1 Tp ch Kinh t quc t January / February 1998 trang 9-11
2 Vit Nam trc cuc khng hong tin t khu vc _ PTS. Nguyn Th Luyn
3 Khng hong ti chnh ng : M hnh khng hong ti chnh th h th ba. Nguyn
Xun Thnh Chng trnh Ging dy Kinh t Fulbright.
4 Khng hong ti chnh m hnh l thuyt v nhng nguy c i vi Vit Nam trong qu trnh
hi nhp hin nay. L Vn Anh. Tp ch khoa hc i hc Quc gia H Ni, Kinh t - Lut 24
(2008) 55-65.
5 Khng hong ti chnh chu 1997 - mt gc nhn. Lu Qu Phng, 6/2007.
6 Trang web ca Diplomatic academy of VietNam: http://www.dav.edu.vn/en/
Truy cp vo ngy 21/10/2014

SVTH: Nhm L2TV

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