Вы находитесь на странице: 1из 37

14 2008

04

,

, 9,9%

.

,

5,9%,

18,7 .

,



, $3,7
.

.

,


2,0% 2,1%.

.

2008 .

,


,

,

stg7.4
.

0,1%,
0,4%, ..
.

0,3%,
85.




10 ,

, ..
-
.

, ..

" "
.

,

.-.. 10

,
4,0%,




.
, - ,

. ,

..

3,0%(

4,1%
)
.

1.


-
-
-
-

2.

3.


-
_95

4.
-

5.


,

L




,

6.

7.

08/ 02/ ELITETRADER.RU

? |
7 11 2008
,

.


1,3% 3,2%
,
0,5%
1,4%
.


0,9%,


3,5%. ,
,
,

.

..

,
,

,
.

,

.
"",
,

.

,
,

436 ,

474 ,
4,7% 5,0%.
.
,
,

.

.

$63,1 .,



,
$72,5 $79,7 .
0,45%,

3,0%.

2,6%
19,2%,


,


,

,
$900
.
,


G7
,

0,8%, 4,1%.
7,2%.
0,5%, 1,4%.
2,7%.
19,6% 187,5 . .
stg7,4 .
: 5,5%
: 4,0%.
.: " ...
, "
0,1%, 0,4%.
5,9%.
$63,1.
.

ALPARI.ORG

08/ 02/ ELITETRADER.RU

? |
Rietumu Banka



. ,
,
.

. 2007-

. 63.1


57.8
.
,
2006 ,

64.1


,
.

3.3%.

:

,


.


0.3%
0.7%.
,

.
10.9%.
,

2007 ,
,
,
. ,

,


,
2.9%. ,

2006-. ,

, ,

,
.

,
:


,


, ,
, .
,

,
. ,

:
,
, ,
.

rate
cut
(
)
,

,

. ,
yahoo finance,

. ,


,
, ,
,
.
,

, .

,
,
.
,
,

. ,


.

,


.
,

,
, -.

,

? ,

--
,

,
,
. ,
.
, .
, , -

.
NASDAQ
2.6%, S&P500
0.8 %.

RIETUMUTRADING.COM

08/ 02/ ELITETRADER.RU

01 |

?
?
|
|

Rietumu Banka

Bank of America,
Countrywide Financial,
. CountryWide Financial
,

). Bank of America 4
. ,
Countrywide
25%. ,
,
.
Morgan Stenley ,
. Best Buy
,
(

2002 ,
,
). American Express
,
.
,
, ,


? ,
. , ,
, .
Intel ,

.

.
, NASDAQ.

S&P500 ,
. ,

, ,

. , ,
.
,
, ,
. ,
. 1- 2-
,
3


Dow Jones

12,606.30

-246.79

(-1.9%)

Nasdaq Comp

2439.94

-48.58

(-2.0%)

S&P 500

1401.02

-19.31

(-1.4%)

30 Year US Treasury
Bonds (US, CBOT) March 2008

118.08

+0.26

NYSE Vol

1,674 Million

-269

(-13.4 %)

Nasdaq Vol

2,292 Million

-259

(-10.0 %)

Light
Crude
(NYM)
February 08 ($US per bbl.)

92.69

-1.02

Brent
Crude
(NYM)
February 08 ($US per bbl.)

91.07

-1.15

Heating Oil February 08 ($US


per gal.)

2.53

-0.0214


:

First Marblehead Corp (NYSE: FMD), Global Cash Access Holdings (NYSE: GCA),
Freemont General Corp (NYSE: FMT), Hi Tech Wealth (OTC: HITW), Searchlight
Minerals Corp (OTC: SRCH), Hooper Holmes (AMEX: HH), Nova Biosciences
(AMEX: NBF)

Circuit Systems Stores (NYSE: CC), Jabil Circuit (NYSE: JBL), United Rentals Inc
(NYSE: URI), Genitope Inc (NasdaqNM: GTOP), Favrille Inc (OTC: FVRL), Comstock
Homebuilding Inc (OTC: CHCI), Cytomedix (AMEX: GTF), Signalife (AMEX: SGN)

Pfizer Inc (NYSE: P), Citigroup Inc (NYSE: C), Nasdaq 100 Trust series 1 (OTC:
QQQQ), Microsoft Inc (NasdaqNM: MSFT), Standard & Poor Depositary Receipts
(AMEX: SPX); iShares Russel 2000 Index Tr (AMEX: IWM)

SMA200

1490

SMA50

1464

16/11/2007

1370

RIETUMUTRADING.COM

08/ 02/ ELITETRADER.RU

01 |

?
?
|
|

Rietumu Banka

RIETUMUTRADING.COM

08/ 02/ ELITETRADER.RU

01 |

?
?
|
|

Rietumu Banka
,
.
,
NASDAQ .
2457,
15 2007 . ,
, 16-
,

. ,
,
, , .

SMA200

2615

19/07/2007

2724

16/08/2007

2386
N/a

--
. ,
--
. . , ,
,
.
, ,
.
.
SMA200,
, SMA50, EMA30, EMA20 SMA10

.

26/11/2007

12274

SMA50

13235

16/08/2007

.
.

flight to quality.
.
,
2007 .
W,
.
, ,
. ,
,
119 .

-- .

: 3- T-bills 10
, 2- 15
, 3- 11 , 5- - 15, 10- -- 6 .. 30-
-
,
, .
,
90
.

: ,

9095 USD .
,
.

2008 ,
, ,
,
2009 .

12517

,
, ,
, ,

.
,
,
.
,
Tata Motors. -- Tata Nano.
.
2500 .

1.12 ,
. ,

.
, 2009

. 2008 , , .

.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI)
100 (
). 2008 2009 ,
, 1.6
. 2007 , ,
1 (
). ,
2008 , ,
, - 2007
.
. .
,
, 0.9
2008 1.6
2009 .

RIETUMUTRADING.COM

08/ 02/ ELITETRADER.RU

01 |

?
?
|
|

Rietumu Banka
.
,
2009 .
2008 2009

, ,
, , , ,
.
,
, . ,
2008
. ,
32.6
.

, , .
,
.
, ,
2007
2.57 , 19
5-
. 2006
, , 100
.


(Brent Crude, February 2008, LO, IPE)

26/11/2007

95.93

100.00

(Brent Crude, February


2008, LO, IPE)
6/12/2007

86.37

90.00


(Light Crude, February 2008, CO28,
NYMEX)

100.00

N/a
(Light Crude, February
2008, CO28, NYMEX)
21/11/2007

97.60

6/12/2007

86.05


(Heating Oil, February 2008, HO28,
NYMEX)

N/a
23/11/2007

2.72

(Heating Oil, February


2008, HO28, NYMEX)

Dow Jones 246



, USD/JPY
. ,

, ,
,
.
,
carry trades
,
. ,
, ,
:

. , ,
, :

75 50 ! ,

,
, (
CPI),
, .
, 50
,
.

28/09/2007

2.296

19/10/2007

2.36


(Natural Gas, February 2008, NG28,
NYMEX)

23/01/2007

7.57

(Natural Gas, February


2008, NG28, NYMEX)

USD/JPY

22/06/2007

123.77

17/05/2006

108.79

SMA200

116.35

23.6 % ( 124.15
108.97)

109.67

USD/JPY
26/11/2007

107.20

RIETUMUTRADING.COM

08/ 02/ ELITETRADER.RU

01 |

?
?
|
|

Rietumu Banka
.
,

.
: ,

75 . ,

, , , 50
, 75 .
EUR/USD
.
--
ZEW .

.
,
.
,

. 9
0,95%,
1906,86 .
:
44,93 . . 0,26%,
2296,56 .
(3,39%)
(2,19%).
0,58% 0,53%, .
, 1,71%
.


.
7,39% 2,31%.
5,12%, 1,12%.
0,62%
. , 10 ,

. 0,45%
2306,87 .
0,28% 1912,29 ,
,
.
.
, ,
.

0,2--0,8%.
:


EUR/USD

1.5

N/A
N/A
23/11/2007

1.4967

EUR/USD

30/09/2007

1.43

SMA50

1.4636

50 % ( 1.43
1.3358)

1.3939

1.4

.
. ,
,
,
,
.
0,11% 1914,48 .
42,95 . . 0,3%
2313,90 . 1,26% 1,51%
. 0,1%
.
3,13% ,
Citigroup Inc. 1 . USD.
110 .
, ( 1% )
9,1 USD . ,
.
,
, .

,

,
,
. --
.

2296,67

+0,26%

$7361.86 .

2306,87

+0,45%

$7521.56 .

2313,53

+0,3%

$6533.66 .

RIETUMUTRADING.COM

08/ 02/ ELITETRADER.RU

01 |

?
?
|
|

Rietumu Banka

RIETUMUTRADING.COM

08/ 02/ ELITETRADER.RU


15.01.2008 21:30 Retail sales (December)

,
.

15.01.2008 21:30 NY Fed Empire State manufacturing


index (January)

USA +0.0% +1.2%



1.2 %, 0.2 % .
, 1.8 %, 0.4 %
. ,
, .
6.8 % 3.1 %.

,
.

15.01.2008 21:30 PPI (December)

USA 13.0 10.3


Empire State 17 ,
10.3,
. , ISM Philly FED
,
,
,
.

16.01.2008 17:30 ILO Jobless rate (3 months to


November)

UK - 5.3%
15,000 5- ,
322,000, 20,000 .

16.01.2008 21:30 CPI (December)

USA 0.2% 3.2%


3.2 % ,
0.1 % .
0.4 %, .

.
, .
, ,

10

RIETUMUTRADING.COM

08/ 02/ ELITETRADER.RU

? |

17.01.2008 21:30 Housing starts (December), mln

USA 0,3% 0.8%


0.8%,
0.3%.
0.2%.
,
. 4.3%.
2.3%,
2 %.
.
,
,
50 ,
.

USA 1,160 1.187


.
3.7%, 4.2% .
24.2%.

18.01.2008 01:00 Philadelphia Fed index (January)

16.01.2008 22:15 Industrial production (December)

USA 2,0 -5.7


Philly FED , ,
. 5.7,
5 .

18.01.2008 23:00 Michigan sentiment index (January)


preliminary

USA - 75.5
USA -0,4% 0.3%
0.3%,
0.7% . , ISM
Philly FED ,
,
,
, .
, .
,
.

1
, 75.5.

, .

11

RIETUMUTRADING.COM

08/ 02/ ELITETRADER.RU

? |
14 18 2008

.

.

.
,

,

.

.

,
,
.



.

.
, ,
-
.

,
.


.

,



. , ,


,

.

,
4,7%,

.

-

.

,



.

2,0%.

,

4%,
2,3%.
,

, ,
,

4,0%.

2007 ,
,

2,5%.

ZEW,
14-
,

.

,
,

.


.

,


.

,


.

,



.
,
,

2007 ,


.


7%,
1981 ,

12

ALPARI.ORG

08/ 02/ ELITETRADER.RU

? |
14 18 2007

(.)

14/01/2008

14/01/2008

12.30

(PPI) Y/Y

+4.5 %

+4.8 %

14/01/2008

13.00

M/M

+0.4 %

-0.4 %

14/01/2008

13.00

Y/Y

+3.8 %

+3.0 %

15/01/2008

12.30

(CPI) Y/Y

+2.1 %

+2.0 %

15/01/2008

13.00

ZEW

-37.2

-39.0

15/01/2008

16.30

(PPI) M/M

+3.2 %

+0.3 %

15/01/2008

16.30

(PPI)
M/M

+0.4 %

+0.2 %

15/01/2008

16.30

M/.M

+1.2 %

+0.1 %

15/01/2008

16.30

M/M

+1.8 %

+0.1 %

15/01/2008

16.30

10.3

10.0

15/01/2008

18.00

M/M

+0.1 %

+0.4 %

16/01/2008

2.50

M/M

+12.7 %

-5.0 %

16/01/2008

12.30

M/M

-11,100

-6,000

16/01/2008

13.00

(CPI, ) Y/Y

16/01/2008

16.30

16/01/2008

+3.1 %

+3.1 %

(CPI) M/M

+0.8 %

+0.2 %

16.30

(CPI)
M/M

+0.3 %

+0.2 %

16/01/2008

17.00

(.)

+114.0

+50.0

16/01/2008

17.15

M/M

+0.3 %

-0.1 %

16/01/2008

17.15

81.5 %

81.3 %

16/01/2008

21.00

NAHB

19

19

16/01/2008

18.55

.-.

22.00

(
)

17/01/2008

7.30

() M/M

-1.6 %

-1.6 %

17/01/2008

13.00

(.)

+4.0

+4.0

17/01/2008

16.30

(.)

-C$24.3

-C$20.0

17/01/2008

16.30

(.)

1.187

1.150

17/01/2008

16.30

(.)

1.162

1.140

17/01/2008

16.30

12.01

322,000

335,000

17/01/2008

17.00

.-.

17/01/2008

20.00

18/01/2008

12.30

M/M

18/01/2008

12.30

Y/Y

18/01/2008

18.00

M/M

18/01/2008

18.00

Michigan Sentiment
()

18/01/2008

18.30

.-.

16/01/2008

M/M
Q/Q
Y/Y

-5.7

-2.0

+0.4 %

+0.2 %

+4.4 %

+3.5 %

-0.4 %

-0.1 %

75.5

74.5



.
14.01.2008

12:30

14.01.2008

13:00

15.01.2008

11:00

2007 (
).

15.01.2008

12:30

15.01.2008

13:00

- ZEW .

15.01.2008

16:30

16.01.2008

10:00

16.01.2008

12:30

16.01.2008

16:30

16.01.2008

17:00

16.01.2008

17:15

17.01.2008

16:30

18.01.2008

12:30

18.01.2008

18:00

13

ALPARI.ORG

08/ 02/ ELITETRADER.RU

2008


,
. ,
,

;


-
.


. ,

,
: 2007

18.6% ,

36.0%.
, ,
:

8.9%

,

0.8% ( ),

.



;
,


.


,

,
7.26
.

1.53
. 2007
,
;


,

, , ,



.


. , 2007


4 . (36.5 .
) ,


;

. ,

-
:


, ,
,
.

:
Sonntag, Credit
Suisse

2.5 . (2.3 .
);
UBS
,
,

:

,

(,
,

),

,
,
,

.

.
-

:
2007
,
, 0.3% (

),
Marks & Spencer

2.2%; 2007
17.2% 12.7%


; ,

.

Marks &
Spencer

: -

,

.
Halifax,

; ,

Northern Rock

J.P.Morgan
Chase , ,
, Northern
Rock .


.

,
10-
3.75% . ,

14

ITINVEST.RU

08/ 02/ ELITETRADER.RU

|

,
,

-,
,
,


.
900
Financial
Times


;
,
,


Bloomberg:
,
, ,

.
, ,


: ,

-


. ,


Reuters,

,
,
.

,



,


,
;
19.2% -,
.

,
( 9.9%)

;
,
,

.



,
1
.

.
,
,
2007

3.3%-
;

1990

(10.9%)

20 .
,
:

2007

6.0%
1988 .
,


: New York
Times,
Merrill Lynch
2007
15 .

;
,
Merrill Lynch
3-5 .
Citigroup
,
; ,

(32
.
); ,

-
,
Citigroup
, Smith
Barney, 25 .
,

. Bear Stearns




;
J.P.Morgan
Chase,


1 .
,

,
.

Countrywide Financial

,

,
,

:
,
9
2 ,
- ,
Bank of
America Countrywide
4 . .
, ,




AT&T

,

.


,
.

Moodys

,
1917
;

,
-

15

ITINVEST.RU

08/ 02/ ELITETRADER.RU

|

. ,

,

;


;

,
;
-

,
, ;
,
-

,

,
,

.

,

,
29-30

0.50%. ,
,
,

,

;

..

:
,
3% , ,

50-100 . ,
2-3

(-


. ,

:

,
,

;
Wall Street Journal,


28


500 ,

,
;
(

)
,
,

16

ITINVEST.RU

08/ 02/ ELITETRADER.RU

,
NYMEX,
5.3%, 79% ,
.

WTI $1.02,
1.1%, $92.69
20 . 3


$100.09 .



,

. , ,

,
,

EIA,

. US DOE.
EIA,
,

4
,
15.8 .
, 389000 bpd
,

91.3%.
,

9.1 .
.

4.5 .
.

9.8 . ,

203000 bpd.

9.7 .
, 60000 bpd
,
.

1.0 .


131000 bpd.

,
6.8 .
282.8 . ,

,

.
5.3 .
, ,
,

.
1.5 .

21.3 .
, 2.6%
,
.

9.3 .
, 0.4%
, .

4.5 .
, 4.9%
,
.

,
4 ,

.

6.8
.

1.0
. .
, ,
,

, -

.
,


,

,
.
,

, , ,

.
,

10.4-11.2
. .
, ,
, ,
310-320
.
.

5.3 .
,
1.1-1.3 .
. 1.5 .

.

,
,

,
91.3%.
, EIA

,
,


200000 .


$94.70

$92.00. ,
$89.00,
,
,
. OBV

.
. $99.90
.
$94.50


$95.00

17

ALPARI.ORG

08/ 02/ ELITETRADER.RU

|
-
Water House Capital

.
, ,
.
.

,

.

. .


,
,
,

.
,
.

. 500

.

: EUR/USD | GBP/USD |
GBP/JPY | USD/JPY | ES
http://elitetrader.ru/index.php?newsid=3076

, ,
1.9650 17.08

.
1600
.
, 1.9500
. 38.2%

2005
2007. 1.9490
(),

.

.
,
.

.

. -

1.7578 ,
.
-
.

,
.
.

4- .
-
.

()
,
.

18

WHCMARKET.RU

08/ 02/ ELITETRADER.RU

|
1 . _95
(HavardAR)

18:00msk,
28dec2007:
.
,

,
,

,

.

,
,

. , 10jan2008

.
,

(,

),
6may2006,
10jan2007. :

.
,

, ,
. ,
,
,
,

+140%, ,

+19%. ,
.
,

,
.
.

,
,

,
.

,

+0.317%.
.
SNGSP ,
,
2007 ,
, ,

Stock

Cash-position,%

Long-position,%

,%

Day-order

60m-order

AVAZ

12.873

+6.828

B=5dec07

B=21dec07

GAZP

9.855

+22.08

B=14sep07

B=9jan08

GMKN

LKOH

S=20dec07

S=17dec07

SBER

S=28dec07

S=17dec07

SNGS

12.626

+19.347

B=11dec07

S=26dec07

SNGSPr

25.860

+15.933

S=25dec07

S=17dec07

TATN
TRNFP

*
*

6.406
13.551

+13.884
+21.928

B=26dec07
B=11dec07

B=24dec07
S=25dec07

18.829

81.171

100

Portfolio

Profit, %

,%

RTSIndex CP

chng%year

Day-order

2008

+0.317

+10.518

2313.90

+1.021

B=11sep07

2007

+144.531

+144.531

2290.51

+19.178

B=11sep07

2006

+44 669

+68 505

1921 92

+8 869*

B=11oct06

,

.
,

.
.

, .
,

HavardAR: -
! ,

, ,
/ TrSys
"4S-f-TP/HavardAR", .
: "CashPosition,%" -
( )

(%)

;
"Long-position,%"
(%)

;
", %" -

; "Day-order" -""/-"S"
TrSys HavardAR
=
,
;
"60min-order"
c
,
-"B"/-"S"
TrSys HavardAR o

; "Profit,%" -

,

.

,
;
",%"

% ; "RTSIndex"
-
; "chng %
year" -
, 2006,

6 2006 (RTSI
CP=1765.35)

19

AZARIN.RU

08/ 02/ ELITETRADER.RU

"-"

"10
" :
" .
,

,
. ,
, ""
, "",
.
, ,
,
.
,
-
. 1".

,
):
10,
20 30.
1)
,
(10-SMA < 20-EMA < 30-EMA)
(10-SMA > 20-EMA > 30-EMA).
3-4 .
, "-",
.
2.

1. .
, ,
.

"-" - Bow Tie.

.
, ,

"-",

.
"",
,
.
10-
, 20-
30- . 10- ,
""
10 .

, ""
. ,
,
.
(

2.
2)
. ,
, , .
3) 2,
, 2.
,
.
20 30
( ,

:
). ,
,
. ,
,
,
,
.

20

KROUFR.RU The Trader's

08/ 02/ ELITETRADER.RU

|
"-"
:

3.
3 / (NZD/SGD).
. ,
" - " , . 10SMA > 20EMA >
30EMA. 1, ,
. , "-".
, 2 .
(2), (3).

4.
2006 "-".
4 , S&P 500 2006
, , ,
10SMA < 20EMA < 30EMA 10SMA > 20EMA > 30EMA.

21

KROUFR.RU The Trader's

08/ 02/ ELITETRADER.RU

|
"-"
, 2. ,
(3). , 2006
2007 ( ).
"-" - .
- , , .
. .
Regeneron Pharmaceuticals (REGN).
, 2007 , , .
, "-", , .
, , .

5.
, , " " -
.
.
, .
"-" ,
. /
/. , ,
.
3. , NZD/SGD ,
. 4 . REGN
5 .
.
, "-" .
, ,
, .
: , President of Sentive Trading, LLC.
(). : " "
"10 "

22

KROUFR.RU The Trader's

08/ 02/ ELITETRADER.RU

Pro Finance Service


()
,




.


,
,
, .



.
, ,

,


2004 , ,

,
(
, "
,
,

")
,
, .
The Times
,


.
:


0,7%. ,

. ,
,

,
12 ,
,

,
,

-
0,4%.
,




,
,

,
.

.
,

,
,
.


$100

.
,

2% -

2,1%.

(

)
- 1,4%.
,

,


.

8%

,
,

ISM

.
4 ,

18
000
,
4,75
5- 5%.
:

, ,

.
,

,

,

.

23

FOREXPF.RU , Times Online

08/ 02/ ELITETRADER.RU

|
-

,
-
,

.

,
"

". ,
, "
. . .
", ,
,

.
,

,
,
,

, "

,

"
Pro Finance Service
,

, ,


.

,


: ,
.

,

.
.

$250

,
1999

.

60%

.
,
,
,
1980 ,

. , 7
,
$859,
,
1980 .
$1 000,

, ,

.

,

.

.


.

,



,


,
,
.



- ,

.
,

,

.
,
.

.
.

,
-

-
,


,
. ,
,


, 10%
.

,
.

24

FOREXPF.RU The Financial Times

08/ 02/ ELITETRADER.RU

|
, -
Pro Finance Service
:
...

.


2008.,

,
.

,
, ,
"- ,
, ,
, ",

,


!

. ,
,
100 ,

,

.

,
,
, ,

4,7% 5%.


,

.

12-
,
Rolls-Royce.

2008 - .
,

.
,
, ,
,

,
.
,
.


. -,



; -,

.


Merrill Lynch, Citigroup, UBS
. ,

.
, ,
.
,
,
,

.


.


66,5%
63,8%. ,
-
,


,
,
.

,

, .

,


. ,

,
.
,

.
,

,
2008.,

,
,
. ,


.
,
,

-
.
, .
,

.


. ,

?


8 . .
,
,
,
15% ,
.


: Dow Jones
Standard & Poors - 70%,

Nasdaq,

, 110%.

25

FOREXPF.RU , Times Online

08/ 02/ ELITETRADER.RU

|
L


,

,


11
.
.
,

,
,
: ,
,

"

".

,
,
.

:

,

Pro Finance Service


. 2008



1991. 1981
1970

,
,
,

,
,
.


. ,

, ,

1,25%

2006. 2007.


,
.

,

,
.

-
1987, 1997 1998. -

.

,


V, , U.

,

.

.
V, U,
W. L: , ,

.

, 2008.
L.
?


5,5%.


2008. 4,5%.


.

,
, $500 .
(252 ., E341 .) -


, ,

26
?

,

,
, ,

.
,
L
. ,
,
, 1998 2001.,

.


.

.
Insinger de Beaufort
,

.


,
. ,

L- -
,

-

.
,

2012.

,

3% 2%,

2008.

26

FOREXPF.RU The Business

08/ 02/ ELITETRADER.RU

|

,

.
,

. Nationwide,
,

0,8%, 0,5%.
-
, 2008.
-
.


3,3%
2007. 2,5%
2008.
1,8%
.

3,1%
2007. 2%
2008. 1,4%
.

, ,
, -
2008. :

40 .
2007. 42 .
2008. 45
. 2008.
,
,
,

,
, 2008.

L
Pro Finance Service


.

75%

,


.
2002.
23%,

,
.

, ,

,

.

,
, .
,
,

,
.

,

-
.



1,4 % ,

- ,
,
,
.

,

.

.

,

.

,
2007
72%
.

133%
. 2007.

.

.

,
,



,
.
20-30%



. , ,
.
S&P Case-Shiller
,


, 6%
,
2007. ,

2008.,
2009.
,


.

, ,

,

.

,
,

,

. ,
,
,
, .


.



.
-

,
.

,
.

27

FOREXPF.RU , The Financial Times Limited

08/ 02/ ELITETRADER.RU

,

.

.
-

40 .


,
, ,


,
.
,

,

, .

.
,

,
.

,

.

-

Pro Finance Service


,

.

,
2008
.

,

- .
,
,

, ,

.
-

.
, ,


. 15 ,

,

.


. ,

,
$1.40 1992
$2.00.
$2.11
$2.00.

1980-,


.

,

,



,
.

.
,

,
.

, .

,
,
. ,
, $1.70 -

- ,
,

. ,

,
.
,

2008
, ,
.

,
.

.
,
,
. ,

- , ,
.
.

,
$2,
,
-

.

, ,


,
,
-,
.
.

,
,

.

,
,

,


.
,
.


, .

28

FOREXPF.RU , The Business

08/ 02/ ELITETRADER.RU

|

Pro Finance Service
2001.

,

:
,
1990 . ,
Morgan Stanley,

1
Nasdaq.

,
,

.

" " - ,

.
,
2006.
,

.
,
, ,



,

.
2008 ,

,
, .
"
-
,
.. "

-
,
.
/ -

,

".

,

. ,

.


,
1990 .,

.
,

,
. ,

,

. ,

100
,

,
. ,
,
,

,
-
.

,
, ,


, ,
,



,

.
, , .

. 1980 .


. ,

,
, Japan
Inc. . 1990
.

,
, ,

, ,




.
.

Blackstone Group LP. 1 PHH
Corp., ,

(),

1,8
.
General Electric Co.
Blackstone

.
-,
LGT
Goup , ",

, ,

". "
Blackstone
,
".
,
Yamaichi Securities Co. 1997.,

.

Citigroup Inc. 7,5
.
, Morgan Stanley
5 .
China Investment
Corp., Merrill Lynch & Co. - 5
.

Temasek Holdings Pte.


, ,
,
?
, ,
,

.

-

29

FOREXPF.RU , Bloomberg

08/ 02/ ELITETRADER.RU

|
,

,

1990 .

. ,


.
,

.


, -
.

.
,



Pro Finance Service


, , ,
.

,
,

.
-,
.



. ,


3%.
-,
.

,

,

.
-,

, ,
-

.
,

.
,

,
,




(
,
),

,
,
.

,
,

. , ,

.
, ,
.

,

-, ,

,
,


.
.
,
.

, 10

2-

200
.

.
-,
.
Morgan Stanley,
50


S&P 500
16%.

S&P 500


,

1980 (
1982 ).
62% .
,
,
,

.
-,

-
,

22 ,

30

FOREXPF.RU , Morgan Stanley

08/ 02/ ELITETRADER.RU

|
:
Pro Finance Service
,


.
, 2001

20% , 2007
40%. ,


, ,

,
2001 .

,

.

.
,
,
:
,

.
,

UBS,

,

,

.
,
: ,


?

,

.
,

, .
,
, ,
""
10% .
, ,

, ,

( 2

2007

-
).

2001 ,
-
.

35% ,
2000 ,

,
.

,

.
,
,

,
-
,
6% .


, , ,
,


. -

.
,
2000
,

,
,
,

. , 2006
42%

18% 1995 .



. ,

,
.
.


(, ,
11% 2007
)
,

,
,
,

. 2004
(
)
5: ; 95%

. 2005
20%.

,
.
,


9%.
,
,

,
-

,
.
Standard Chartered Bank,

10 2007
40%
;
, 10%
.

,

,
40% .

:


.
Dragonomics,

,
,


, :


. -
, 7%

, ,
14%
, -
. ,

31

FOREXPF.RU The Economist

08/ 02/ ELITETRADER.RU

|
:

,

.

.
,

Dragonomics, 2008

.

,
, 2007

10%, 11.5%.
. ,

,
,

.


.
DBS ,




. 2007

30% .

:

32

FOREXPF.RU The Economist

08/ 02/ ELITETRADER.RU

|

2007
Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4


( )
Algeria

1.36

1.36

1.37

Indonesia

0.86

0.85

0.84

Iran

3.70

3.70

3.70

Kuwait

2.43

2.42

2.51

Libya

1.68

1.68

1.70

Nigeria

2.11

2.06

2.15

Qatar

0.79

0.79

0.84

Saudi Arabia

8.65

8.60

8.63

United Arab Emirates

2.49

2.50

2.55

Venezuela

2.36

2.40

2.40

26.43

26.36

26.69

Angola

1.57

1.64

1.66

Iraq

1.93

2.07

2.05

29.93

30.07

30.40

31.00

OPEC-10 Total

OPEC-12 Total

4.57

4.51

4.49

4.55

34.51

34.58

34.90

35.55

Algeria

1.42

1.42

1.42

Indonesia

0.86

0.85

0.84

Iran

3.75

3.75

3.75

Kuwait

2.60

2.62

2.65

Libya

1.70

1.70

1.74

Nigeria

2.11

2.07

2.15

Qatar

0.85

0.85

0.88

10.50

10.50

10.50

United Arab Emirates

2.60

2.60

2.60

Venezuela

2.45

2.43

2.40

28.84

28.78

28.93

Angola

1.57

1.64

1.66

Iraq

1.93

2.07

2.05

32.34

32.49

32.64

32.81

Algeria

0.06

0.06

0.05

Indonesia

0.00

0.00

0.00

Iran

0.05

0.05

0.05

Kuwait

0.17

0.20

0.14

Libya

0.02

0.02

0.04

Nigeria

0.00

0.01

0.00

Qatar

0.06

0.06

0.04

Saudi Arabia

1.85

1.90

1.87

United Arab Emirates

0.11

0.10

0.05

Venezuela

0.09

0.03

0.00

OPEC-10 Total

2.41

2.42

2.24

Angola

0.00

0.00

0.00

Iraq

0.00

0.00

0.00

OPEC-12 Total

2.41

2.42

2.24

1.82

Other Liquids
Total OPEC-12 Supply
Crude Oil Production Capacity
(Million barrels per day)

Saudi Arabia

OPEC-10 Total

OPEC-12 Total
Surplus Crude Oil Production Capacity
(Million barrels per day)

33

RIETUMUTRADING.COM

08/ 02/ ELITETRADER.RU

|

Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
Region

Stocks (Bcf) for January 28,


2007

Stocks (Bcf) for December 28,


2007

Implied Net Change


(Bcf)

Year Ago Stocks


(Bcf)

East

1,511

1,604

-93

1,716

West

375

395

-20

382

Producing

864

922

-58

934

Total lower
48

2,750

2,921

-171

3,032

* , EIA, 4 2,750 Bcf. -171 Bcf 28


2007. 282 Bcf , , +122 Bcf 5-
2,628 Bcf.

34

ALPARI.ORG

08/ 02/ ELITETRADER.RU

|

Petroleum Stocks - Weekly Estimates
Million
Barrels

Change form
01/04/2007 12/28/2006
Week

Change
form Year

Crude Oil

282.8

289.6

-6.8

-31.9

Gasoline

213.1

207.8

+5.3

-0.2

Distillate

128.7

127.2

+1.5

-12.3

Propane

51.223

54.367

-3.144

-8.546

Charts

35

ALPARI.ORG

08/ 02/ ELITETRADER.RU


01 | ?

|
|

36

RIETUMUTRADING.COM

08/ 02/ ELITETRADER.RU


01 | ?

|
|

37

RIETUMUTRADING.COM

08/ 02/ ELITETRADER.RU

Оценить