Элитный трейдер 005

21 2008
05
1.

-
-
-
-
-
2.

.
,

.
C$4.8.,

$20.

,

8,3%.

,

,
3%

.

.
,

.

, 102

.

,
0,4%,
2,6%,

,
Nikkei
,

(
6,4%).
:

,
2,8%,

2003 .
,
,

.

,
.

.
5,0%
, ,

11,2%.
2,1%
.
,
4,0%.
.

:
RICS
40.6% 49.1%
,
..
1992 ,

3.
,

-
_96

4.

5.
:

UK
2009

6.

BoNY M.

7.

: R/J CRB | USD | EUR
8.
WWW.BBH24.RU
24
1
08/ 03/ ELITETRADER.RU
FXSTREET.COM Fibo & Pip
? |
14 18 2008
.

0,4%

4,4% 2,7%
, ,
.

,
, ,
- .

,
.

.

.-.
-

,

0,5%,
ZEW 15 -41.6,
2,6 . .
""
"".
,

,
,

.

,

.

4
.
. Citigroup $18,1
. 4
$9.83 .,
Citi ,
$3.62.

Merrill Lynch,
$11.5, 4
$9.6,
$7.8.

,
- .

,

,
.
,
10-
2004
3,60%-3,65%.
.

10 ,
,

.

.,

1% .

, ,
,
,
-

,

.

,
.

,
0,2%, .
,
4,3%
4,1%,
2,3% 2,4%.
,
.

0,4%,

.
$90.9. ,
,
..
:
14,2%,
38,2%,

8,1%
,
34,4%.
1991
.

, 20.9,
2001 .

3,5%
,

3,5%.

,

ALPARI.ORG
? |
Rietumu Banka

.

,

.

2007 .
0.4%
1%
.
,
,
.
,
-
- 0.6%. ,

.
1%

.

.
,
0.2%,

.
,

.

.
.

14.2%
7.9% .

8.1%
0.7%.
,

,
-
.
,

.
.
,
,

.
: ,

,
-- .
.
,
,

,
.

.
0.2%
.

,

ECRI,
.
:

,
.
Conference
Board.
: Empire state ISM.

Empire state
,
9.
ISM ,
(. ,
).
-20.9, --

. ,
ISM , Empire
State,

,
.

.
,
,

,

.
CPI PPI

,
WWW.RIETUMUTRADING.COM
01 |
?
?
|
|
Rietumu Banka
0.3%
0.8%.
0.2%
0.3% . ,
.
?

CPI PPI, PCE.
0.25% ,
CPE.

(. ).
, CPI 2007
4.1%, ( ). , 4.1%
0.25% PCE YoY ~ 3.8 %. 1.75%
.
PCE, CPI 2.4 0.25 %. ~ 2.2%
( ),
.

, :
. , ,
.
2008 ,

, status quo.

Dow Jones
12,099.30
-59.91
(-0.5%)
Nasdaq Comp
2340.02
-6.88
(-0.3%)
S&P 500
1325.19
-8.06
(-0.6%)
30 Year US Treasury
Bonds (US, CBOT) March 2008
119.19
-0.16
NYSE Vol
2,370 Million
+305
(+14.8 %)
Nasdaq Vol
2,950 Million
+121
(+4.3 %)
Light
Crude
(NYM)
February 08 ($US per bbl.)
90.57
+0.44
Brent
Crude
(NYM)
February 08 ($US per bbl.)
88.75
-0.75
Heating Oil February 08 ($US

per gal.)
2.5074
+0.039

:

Alliance Data Systems (NYSE: ADS), Labranche & Co (NYSE: LAB), CSK Auto Corp
(NYSE: CAO), Perfomance Food Group (OTC: PFGC), Cleveland Biolabs Inc (OTC:
CBLI), American MTG Acceptance (AMEX: AMC), Protalix (AMEX: PLX)

Sprint Nextel Group (NYSE: S), under Armour Inc (NYSE: UA), Amcol Intl Corp
(NYSE: ACO), Midwest Uranium Corp (NasdaqNM: MWUC), Advanced Life Sciences
(OTC: ADLS), Converted Organics (OTC: COINW), Raser Technologies (AMEX:
RZ), Uranerz Energy Corp (AMEX: URZ)

Sprint Nextel Group (NYSE: S), Citigroup Inc (NYSE: C), Nasdaq 100 Trust series 1
(OTC: QQQQ), Microsoft Inc (NasdaqNM: MSFT), Standard & Poor Depositary
Receipts (AMEX: SPX); iShares Russel 2000 Index Tr (AMEX: IWM)
status quo .
,
.

. .

,
.
,
, Intel
(NasdaqNM: INTC) .
EMA20
1410
SMA10
1386
09/05/2006
1326
01 |
?
?
|
|
Rietumu Banka
01 |
?
?
|
|
Rietumu Banka
,
NASDAQ .
, ,

.
0.29%. ,

2384, 2323. RSI < 30
.
SMA200
2614
SMA10
2432
14/03/2007
2367
N/a
Dow Jones
1000 ,
- .
.
,
.

Dow Jones, NASDAQ.
,
12340 ,
12000.
.
SMA10
12561.
EMA20
12783
SMA10
12562
14/03/2007

, .
20 .
:
flight to quality,

,

.
,
75 . ,

.
,

.

, ,
,
, .
.

, , ,
. ,

.
: 3- T-bills 24
, 2- 23
, 3- 20 , 5-
22 .., 10- 30- 17 .. 10 ..,
.
,
, --

12133
, . ,
,
. ,
, .
: , , ,

, ,

,
.
.
. :
, ,
.
-
. :
.
,
.
: ,

, , ,

,
, .

. ,

.
.
90 ,
2 . 11 2008
4.3
-- 287.1 .
1.1 ,
2.2 .
01 |
?
?
|
|
Rietumu Banka
,
.
78.1%.
IEA,
. IEA,

130,000 . , ,
1.98 .
,
32.03
.
31.65 .
,

. ,
, . ,
, ,
, ,
. ,
:

.
,
2030
,

.

- ,

. ,

, :
, ,
87 92
.
,
100
.

(Brent Crude, February 2008, LO, IPE)
26/11/2007
95.93
100.00
(Brent Crude, February

2008, LO, IPE)
6/12/2007
86.37
90.00

(Natural Gas, February 2008, NG28,
NYMEX)
23/01/2007
7.57
(Natural Gas, February

2008, NG28, NYMEX)
07/07/2006
5.47
18/01/2007
6.19

(Heating Oil, February 2008, HO28,
NYMEX)
N/a
23/11/2007
2.72
(Heating Oil, February

2008, HO28, NYMEX)
28/09/2007
2.296
19/10/2007
2.36

(Light Crude, February 2008, CO28,
NYMEX)
100.00
N/a
(Light Crude, February
2008, CO28, NYMEX)
21/11/2007
97.60
6/12/2007
86.05
01 |
?
?
|
|
Rietumu Banka
USD/JPY : Dow Jones
carry
trades
, .
,

, .
,
. ,
, ,
.
.
,

USD/CHF,
-. ,
, ,
, 50 .
, , ,
.

2.5- .
, USD/JPY, USD/CHF EUR/USD,
.
, ,
, , ,
, EUR/USD 50/50.
,

,
. -,

,

, PMI IFO.
, ,
.

-. ,
:
.
,
.
1,12%.
2339,79 .
,
.
,
0,4% -- 2330,87 .

,
Citigroup

USD/JPY
22/06/2007
123.77
17/05/2006
108.79
SMA200
115.95
23.6 % ( 124.15
108.97)
109.67
USD/JPY
105

EUR/USD
1.5
N/A
N/A
23/11/2007
1.4967
EUR/USD
30/09/2007
1.43
SMA50
1.4636
50 % ( 1.43
1.3358)
1.3939
1.4
.
(+0,7%)
(+6,6%), ,
,
1,5--2%.
,
, .
2.5% .

.
4.4%. ,
2339,79
2330,87
2214,67
2174,78
2159,53
+1,12%
$8554.07 .
-0,40%
$8609.67 .
-4,40%
$10952.64 .
-2,28%
$10884.56 .
-0,72%
$7955.66 .
01 |
?
?
|
|
Rietumu Banka
.

(-4.9 %) (-5.0 %).
" ":
(-4.1 %), (-3.7 %).
:
1,83% 2,28%,
.
(-4,9%), (-3,88%)
(-5,02%).
, 0,65%.

. ,
(. ),
.
0,95% -- 1788,34 .

.
73 . .
0,72%, 2159,10 .

, 1% 2%
. 1,21%,
0,26%.

(-1,49%),
2,18%,
.
,
: ,
,
,
.

24.01.2008 21:30 Jobless claims (week to 19.01)
USA 318K 301K

12 2008
301,000
2007 .
24.01.2008 23:00 Existing home sales (December), mln
USA 4,97 5.00

0.4%,
5 . ,
9 , ,
.
10
? |
21 25 2008

.

.
,
,
4,25% 4,0%.

,
.

,

,

.
-
, , ,
.

,

,
.

,
1,6%
.

.
,

.

.

,
. ,
,

,

-
.
- .

0,6%,
.

,

-0,1%

. ,
,
,
, , .

-
.

Rightmove,
3,2%,

3 . ,

,

50%
,

""

4 .

,

,
,
,
,

4 2007 .
, ,
,
,

. ,
3,3% 2,8%,

,
.
,
, .
.

,
"".

Ifo,
6
, ,
.

. ..
..
,

.
-,

,

.

,

,

.

..,
.

,

,
.

.
,
1% , ..
11
ALPARI.ORG
? |
21 25 2008
-
$100 $150
., ,

.

. ,

, -

.

.,
.

:
30%,
50%, ,
,
.
:

,

.

,
3,5%
,
.

,
,

12
ALPARI.ORG
? |
21 21 2008
(.)
21/01/2008
03.01
Rightmove Y/Y
+4.8 %
+4.0 %
21/01/2008
10.00
(PPI) Y/Y
2.5%
2.7%
21/01/2008
12.30
(4)
21/01/2008
16.30
M/M
+0.6%
21/01/2008
16.30
M/M
+0.5%
+0.3%
21/01/2008
22/01/2008
7.00
0.50 %
0.50 %
22/01/2008
9.30
- .
22/01/2008
14.00
CBI
22/01/2008
16.30
22/01/2008
16.30
0.0%
0.4%
22/01/2008
17.00
4.25%
4.00%
22/01/2008
18.00
-4
23/01/2008
12.30
() Q/Q
4 .
+0.7 %
+0.4 %
23/01/2008
12.30
() Y/Y
4 .
+3.3 %
+2.8 %
23/01/2008
12.30
9-10.01
23/01/2008
13.00
M/M
+2.5 %
+1.5 %
23/01/2008
13.00
Y/Y
+10.9 %
+10.0 %
23/01/2008
16.30
0.00%
0.00%
24/01/2008
12.00
IFO
103.0
102.0
24/01/2008
12.30
BBA
44,800
42,000
24/01/2008
16.30
19.01
301,000
330,000
24/01/2008
18.00
(.)
5.00
4.95
24/01/2008
18.30
24/01/2008
19.20
.-.
24/01/2008
19.20
25/01/2008
2.30
(CPI)
Y/Y
+0.4 %
+0.2 %
25/01/2008
10.00
GfK
4.5
4.3
25/01/2008
15.00
(CPI) Y/Y
+2.5%
+2.4%
25/01/2008
15.00
(CPI core) Y/Y
+1.6%
+1.6%
M/M
Q/Q
Y/Y
+2
-5
+0.1%
+0.3%
:
21.01.2008
12:30
- Rightmove .
21.01.2008
10:00
21.01.2008
22.01.2008
. 9:00 .
22.01.2008
16:30
22.01.2008
17:00
23.01.2008
12:30
9-10 .
23.01.2008
12:30
4 ( )
23.01.2008
23:00
24.01.2008
12:00
- IFO .
24.01.2008
18:00
24.01.2008
18:30
- , .
24.01.2008
19:20
. .-.
.
24.01.2008
22:30
. .
25.01.2008
02:30
25.01.2008
15:00
13
ALPARI.ORG/ FOREXREVIEW.RU
,

;

.

.

:

2.0%
(
),

2007
3.2%
92%.
,

-
Fidelity Capital Guaranteed Bond

.

4.5%
4.3% -

,
10
,
1982 .
,
NIkkei
14000 ,
,
- , ,

Yomiuri,

50%.
2.8%

.

-

;
( )
Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group

,
.

,

,

.
,

, , ,

1989 .

( 11-
)

15%. , ,

( 1990)
.
, ,

;
,

:
()

,
UBS:
,

15 .

.

:
,
14
ITINVEST.RU
|
,

Scottish Equitable
,

, ,

. RICS,
(

)
, 1992
.
,

, (
)

0.4%
; ,
,
-
.
, ,
,

,
5.0%
2006 :

1991 .

,
,
Times,

,
..

,

.

, :
-
),
,

,

.
,

-
12000 .

,
,
,

0.4% ,
.

:

14.2% ,
2007
24.8% -
1980 ;

25.2% -
1973 .
2007
,

28.6% (-
1980 ),

41.1%
.
,

,

,

5-
1986 .

. Merrill Lynch
Citigroup

9.83
.;
, ;
,

$10 $18 .

,

. Merrill Lynch
,
,

,
,
. Citigroup,
,

- ,

;

,
,

10 .
: Mitsubishi
UFJ, Mitsui Sumitomo Mizuho.

, ,
15
ITINVEST.RU
|
,
Merrill Lynch

UniCredit; ,
.
J.P.
Morgan Chase

2.5 .
.

Moodys
MBIA Ambac;
,

,

.

,
-

,
,

1%
, .. 100-150 .
. ,

: ,

800
( 1600
)
;
,
,
115
.
;
(
),
-
26
39 (.. 9
). ,
,

,
.

,

,
: ,
,
- !
,

:

0.75%
, ..
,
- ! ,

,

;

16
ITINVEST.RU
|
,

50 .
, -
,
,

: ,
(
Wall Street
Journal,

),
-

).
17
ITINVEST.RU
NYMEX

WTI,
.

, ,

.

WTI, NYMEX,
44
$90.57 .
35
$89.92 .

366 2.2668
.

39
2.5184 .
NYMEX

.
,
2008.

1991.

.
,
,
,
,
, 2 .
87.8 . bpd,

,
,

. ,

100000 bpd -
.
,
,
- 24 ,
,

21 .

,
,
.
EIA, ,
11
,

15.0 .
, 760000
bpd , .
87.1%.

9.0 . .

4.3 .
.
10.4 .
, 583000
bpd , .

10.0
. ,
219000
bpd
,

938000 bpd.

309000 bpd.
( )
4.3 .
287.1 .
,
.

2.2 . 287.1 .
,

.

1.1 .
129.8
.
,

.

3.6 .

.
21.2
. , 2.2%
,
.

9.3 . ,
1.2% , .

4.4 .
, 2.1%
,
.
,

14
3.4 336.1 .
, , 97.3 ,
.

13.6 262.1
, 101.8
, .

14

, 4.1
306.8 ,
83.9 ,

.
,

,
9.1 301.0
, 93.3
, .
1
OPEC,

. ,

,

, , .
,
, OPEC
,
13 .

OPEC,
500000
.
,
32.03
.
31.65 .
.
OPEC-10,
,
18
ALPARI.ORG
|

27.43 . bpd.
460000 pbd , ,
177000 bpd 27.253 .
bpd., 1 .
, 11 OPEC,
,
29.7
. .
,
,
-
.
.
, ,
,

.
,
,
,
,
,
-,

,

.
,
,

,
OPEC .. ..,
,
, ,
, ,
. ,

$85 .
,

,
$89.12.

$83.70-$84.00.

$84.00
$83.00-$83.50.
OBV

.
(CLH8/QMH8).
Sell-limit - $92.00. - $95.00.
- $88.50.
Sell-limit - $93.00. - $95.00.
- $85.00
19
ALPARI.ORG
|
-
, , ,
. 4-
,
.
,
.
.

,

. ,

1.9482.

.
.
()
.

1.4555.
.
.

20
WHCMARKET.RU
|
2 . _96
(HavardAR)
18:00msk, 18jan2008:
-

.
16jan2008
,
,
27feb2007
16aug2007.
,

,

,

. ,

,

,
,
,
,
, ,
,

. ,

,

.
5-\15- ,

,
, .
. ,
,
,
,
- .
:
.
, .
162008
-2.839% ,
0.717%.
182008
-5.737%,

-0.843%.
,

e
, ,
, ,
,
,
, ,
, ,

,
Stock
Cash-position,%
Long-position,%
,%
Day-order
60m-order
AVAZ
24.209
+50.000
B=5dec07
B=21dec07
GAZP
13.743
+0.112
S=18jan08
S=16jan08
GMKN
S=20nov07
S=26dec07
LKOH
10.477
-3.330
S=20dec07
S=17dec07
SBER
S=28dec07
S=17dec07
SNGS
15.519
-57.826
S=16jan08
S=26dec07
SNGSPr
22.481
-63.495
S=25dec07
S=17dec07
TATN
6.064
-0.181
B=26dec07
S=16jan08
TRNFP
13.161
-25.280
S=17jan08
S=25dec07
leverage
105.654
Portfolio
Profit,%
,%
RTSInd_CP
chng%year
Day-order
2008
-0.843
-17.094
2159.100
-5.737
B=11sep07
2007
+144.531
+144.531
2290.510
+19.178
B=11sep07
2006
+44.669
+68.505
1921.920
+8.869*
B=11oct06
. -,
, !
,
? ,
,
5-.
-,
,
,

, ,

.
HavardAR: -
! ,

,
,
/
TrSys "4S-f-TP/HavardAR",
.
: "CashPosition,%" -
( )
(%)
;
"Long-position,%"
(%)
;
",%" -
; "Day-order" -""/-"S"
TrSys HavardAR
=
,
;
"60min-order"
c
,
-"B"/-"S"
TrSys HavardAR o

; "Profit,%" -
,

.
,
;
",%"
%
;
"RTSInd_CP"
; "chng%year"
, 2006,
6
2006 (RTSI CP=1765.35)
21
AZARIN.RU
|

Pro Finance Service
(,
22
)

.

,
,
, ,

. ,
?
, 24 , 16.30 .

-

,

. ,

BMO
Financial Group .

. ,

,

" ". , ,

, ,
,
,
2007
. ,
. ,

,

. ,

-
,
,
,

"
",

(24 , )
,
,
, ,

.

,

.
,

3,6%. ,

2%.
,
,
.
,

.
,
. ,

.
,

,

0,75%.
,
72%-
.
,
,

.
,
,
.
0,75%
30

2%
,
.

18%!
, ,

,
PMI
(23 , )
,

,
,
( ,
),
.
, PMI
22
FOREXPF.RU
52,1 52,6.
- 52,8 53,1.
IFO (24 , )
ZEW,
,
15 .
,

IFO.

. ,
, IFO
102,0 103,0
.
. ,
, IFO
.
. ,

.

.

IFO
PMI, ,
.
,

.
,

! , ,
-
,
,

.
,
.
, 2007
3,1%,
,
2008

.

(23 ,
)
,
. ,

,
,
,
,

,

.
, ,
.
,

.
,
.
.

.
,

Northern Rock.
, , ,
,

.

.
,

carry trades.
4 (23 ,
)
,
0,5% / +2,8%
/ 0,7% / 3,3% /
.
,

,
,
.
,
,
,

,
,
.

,

.
,
23
FOREXPF.RU

2009 . 12
.

.
,
. ,

.

, ,

.
,
,

,
.
,
,
, ,

(
) .

,
,

. ,

.
-,
,
( ,
,
.
) ,

.
-,
,

.
,
,
,
.
-,

(

)

.
, ,
, , , -

.

.

.
-
.
,

.
:

.
.

.

,
, ,

,
.

(
)?

,
,

.
,

.

,
, ,
,

. , -
.

.

. , ,
,
:

0
,
1929
. ,
?

,
.
(,
, 20%
,
40%), ,
,
.

. ,

,
,
-
.
,
,
24
WORLDCRISIS.RU
,

. ,
,
, -,

,
-,
.

:
,
,
,
.
,

(

)
,

.
,

,
()

. ,
, ,
, ,

,
,
.

.
,
, ,

.
.

,
, ,
2007
,
.

(
), ,
. ,
.

,
,

.
,

,
. , ,
)
.

,
-

.

, (
,
)
.
,
),
,
. 90
,

.
( 1
)
)
,
( )

. ,
,

90-
,

-. ,
.

, ,
), ,
.
,
, ,

.
,
- ,
,

.
, , ,

,
,

.
2
, ,
(,
, )
.
, ,
,
-
,
25
WORLDCRISIS.RU

,
.

,

2008 .
,
- .
2009-
()
, ,

,

,
2009 , 2008-

.
,
,

. ,

.
,

, ,
, ,

1929 .
.
,
.

.

19291930
, ,

. ,

, ,
, 90- ,
-
.

,
, ,

,
,
.
,
,
19291930

,
80 .

,

.

.
(

-, ,
, )
,
. ,

,
.
,
19291930 ,
90-,
,

.

, .
-,
(
),

. -,
. -
,

. , ,

,

.

,
2008 .
.

,
,

.
.

,
,

.
,

. ,
,

.

.
,
,
26
WORLDCRISIS.RU

,
.
) , (
,

,

,

. , ,
,
,
,

,
,

.
,
,

. ,

,
27
WORLDCRISIS.RU

,
.
) , (
,

,

,

. , ,
,
,
,

,
,

.
,
,

. ,

,
.
,
,
,
1944
-
-,
,
.

,
,

.

,
1944
,
, ,
,
.
,

. ,

.

35 $ .

65 %
,
, ,

.

-
.
, ,
,

.
,
,
.
,
-
, ,

.
,

,
,
,
.
,
-
.

.

,

,
,
,
.
-

. ,
, ,

.

,
,

-
.
-
, 1971

35 $ .

28
KROUFR.RU INVESTOPEDIA Katrina Lamb
|

.
,

,
,
.
,

,
.
1980- ,

"",
.

,
-
,
.
, 1944
,
"
",

. ,
,
,

,
,
-
, ,
,
"- II". ,

, ,
.
,
,
-

.

-
II,
.

,
,

. ,

.
, -

,

.
-

.
,
,
. ,

,

, ,
,
,
,

.
,
,
,

, - ,
,

.
29
KROUFR.RU INVESTOPEDIA Katrina Lamb
:

Pro Finance Service
2008 ,

,

.

,
19

.

,

,
,
,
-.
, - ,
, -
.
,

,

. -,

,

? ,
?

,

,
;
"".
:
,

,
.
, ,

"".
,
,
,

,
,
,

.
,
,
,
" "
2000 .

.
- ,
,
,
.

, ,
.

,
.

, ,
: "
".
, ,
,
-
,

. ,
,

. ,
,

.
,
,

,
.
""
,
,

,
.
,
,
, ,
.
,
,
30
FOREXPF.RU , Times Online
,
,
.

.

, ,
, ,

.

,
HSBC. , ,

, ,
. ,
- ,
,

,
,
.
,

.

,

Pro Finance Service

,

.
", !"
,

1992
.
,
:
. ,
,
-
. 1991

. 1992
,

.
" "
,
, ,
-. 2008
.
.

(
,
),
,

).

.
,
,

.
,
, .
.
,
, .

.
.
2007

. ,

.

,
. ,
,

1990- (

),

. ,
.
,
,
, ,
,
, -,
, -,
2007
.
- ""

(ISM).
50,
-

(
-
45). ,
6,9
45,7.
,
HSBC,

. ,
,

.

. ,

,

.

.

,
-
0,3%: 4,7 5%,
.

2001 ,

.
31
FOREXPF.RU , The Independent
|

,
, ,

. ,

,
,
, .
,
,

,

- .
,
.
?

,

(
2009 ., ,

)?

(,
)?

,
- ? ( ,

,
.)
-
(

)? , ,
, ,

.

. , ,
,
,
( , ,
),
),

,

.
,
.

,
. ,
1990-,
.
2000 2001
.
,
.
1990-
,
-

.

. , ,

,

1990-.
,

. ,

. ,

.

. ,
,

. ,
.

,
,
32
|
:
Pro Finance Service

, ,
,

.
,

.
,
.
, 11
,
,
. ,
-
,
.

,
.
-
,
,
,
-
,
.
(. Forexpf.ru:

0,5%

0,25%
30 ).

.
,
,
,

- ,

.

,
,
.
,

,
,

.
,
,
.
,
RBS Greenwich
Capital Markets
,

"",

.
"
",

.
,

. : "
,
." "
,
,

25 50 ( ),

".

,

.
1.
, .
-
, ,
New
York Times. ,

,

:
.
" "

:
"

31

".

,
19
30 ,
.

2.
.
3. - , -
- .
,
.
-
.
. .
.
- ,
.
-
33
FOREXPF.RU , Bloomberg
|

4.

.
5. ,
4.

, ,
.
,
Pro Finance Service
.

. ,
,
,
(.
Forexpf.ru:
" "
,
).
,
. ,
,

,

. ,

,
- ,

.
2001 ,
,
,
,

. ,
, , -,

, , ,

2001 ,
.
,
,
,
, ,

1980-,
, ,
,
.

,

,
1988

", ".
" ,

". ,

1987
, "
".

.
1980-,
.
,

1980-,
.

.

, .
, Northern Rock,
.

1866 ,
,

, , ,
-
.

.
, ,
"
"
.

,

.
,
1980-,
,
, .
, 2007

20
, ,
,
,
,
.
,
5.7% .
,
,
( )
1988 1989
,
- .

.
,
.

. ,
, ,
,

.
-
-
,
.
,
2.8%
2007
. , ,
4.5% .

,
34
|
2009

.
,

, . ,
"" ,

.
,

,
. ,
,
(. Forexpf.ru:

),

(, ,
).
, ,

.
,
.
,

,

2007
, ,
.
, ,
, 2008
,

Pro Finance Service
,
.
,

!

,
.
$100
.
.
,
,

. ,
? , .

, , ,

. ,

,
, ,
,
,
-
. ,
.
.
,
,
.
,

:
,
, ,
,
?
2000-01 ,

, 1991-92
?
2008
, 2009?
,
, ,
,
, 2000-
, ,
90-.
,
2009, 2008,
,
.
-,
, ,
.

, ,
-
.
-
,
,
,

,
90-
. -,
. -,

,
. -,
,

,
: ,
. ,
,
.

, .

,
.
40
,
3% .
3,2 %,
,
2%
? ,

2003 .
,
-
4,2%, -
,

.
,
,
,

35
|

, , ,

,
.
,
2009 .
,

, .
?
, .
:

,

.

. ,

,
.
, ,
(. ProFinance.ru:
)
2008.

. -

, , ,
,

.
2009 .
. ,

,
,

,

.
.
- ,
,
- :

.
,
,
,
Pro Finance Service

,

$850 ,

1980
. 2007
32% ,
20%
,
.
,
-
,
,
2008 .
, , ,
.

2008
:
"",
,
,

.
" ",
,
.
.
-,
.
-,
.
2000
,

.
, 1000
,
) 3.

(exchangetraded funds (ETFs) 18

,

- .

.
,
""

,

( , ,
, ).
,
.

,
-
,

,

.
" ".

.
2003

.
,

. 1970
1000
, 2007

.
,

,
).
.
,
36
2007
""
.
TheBullionDesk.com ,
2008
$976,
$1250.
,
,
, ,
,

Pro Finance Service
.

1997-1998 . 2000 .,

.
?
.
: ,

,
,

.
( , ,
)
(
),
,
,

-,

,
.
(, , )
:

,

,
.
,

.
-,
. ,

?
, ,
? ,
,

?
,
,

?
?

terra incognita.
-,
,

(, )
,

?
, ,

. ,
,
.
,
,
.

, ,

.
- (

),
.

,
. ,

,
.

.
-,

.
,
(

)
2007 . 1,8%
2,7% 2006 .
2008 .
1,4%.
,
2007
. 0,5 , 2008
. 0,4 . . ( 2005-2006 .

0,2 . . 0,1 . .
). ,

,

. ,
, .
,
.

-,
.
.
, ;
,
:
37
FOREXPF.RU , Financial Times
|
:
63%
1995 . 98% 2005 .

. (
)

. ,
,

.
(
).

,

)

.
, , .
, ,

.
.

,
?
,

.
,

.
, .
,
,
,

2007

.
, ,

-.
,

,

. ,

2004 2005

40%
,

.

.

:

,

,
.

.

,
,

.

.
.
,

. ,
2005
,
, ,
.
,
,

,

.
,

.
?
,
,

. ,
,
,
. ,
-
,
.
,

38
FINAM.RU Mark Vitner, Wachovia Corp
|
:

2004, 2005 2006
(
)
875 000 . 2007
61%

2008
60%.

,
,

,
,

,
, ,

.
,

, .

1
2011-2012,

,

. , 2012-2013
1,5

39
FINAM.RU Mark Vitner, Wachovia Corp

2004, 2005 2006
(
)
875 000 . 2007
61%

2008
60%.

,
,

,
,

,
, ,

.
,

, .

1
2011-2012,

,

. , 2012-2013
1,5

Pro Finance Service
?
,
. ,
, .
, .
-
-
,
.
,
,
,

.
,
2000

. ,
"" . ,
,
.
,
, ,
.

: 2006

126%
104% .
,

2007 5.7%
, ,
.
.

Smithers & Co,

-
,
- .

.

,
,
7% .
,

.

,
JPMorgan, 7%
1970
.
14%.
37
2004 ,
1997
2000 1980
1981 .

$2.11.
1981 ,
50%
2001 .

.
.
,
, ,
, -
.
- ,
?
- . ,
,
. ,
,
. ,

. ,
,

3%
2007
3.4%

,

.

.
, ,

,

-
,
40
FOREXPF.RU , The Financial Times
|

,
,

(.
ProFinance.ru: 7 ,
""
. ,

. ,

, 2009
).
,

,
.
,
, ,
.

, ,

,

,
,

" ", ,
, .
, ,
,
,
. ,
:
.

,

41
FOREXPF.RU , The Financial Times
,

1960- ., Soros
Fund
Management.
,
$1 :
1992 .
,
$1,92 $1,5. ,
,
.
,
,

,

,
, ,
.

?

,
.

, .
,

,
, ,
,
.
1980- .,

.
8%

, ,
.
[
:
, .
,

,
.
,

;
.

.
,

.
,
.

?

(), ,

, .
,
,
.

,

,
,
,
,
.

.
. [
]
,
,
,
, :

. ,

.

.
;
,

],
.

.
,
, ,

,
- ,
.

,

, ,
.
,
,
.
,

100%
, 105%.

30% .

?

. ,
- , ,
.

. ,
,
,
.
,
42
VEDOMOSTI.RU

, .

,
,
,

,

,
. ,
,
,
,

20% 40%
. .
- 1990- .
?
.
,
-
.

.

?
,

. ,

, , ,
.
:
,
,
,
,
,
.
,
19791987 .
13,5%
1981 . 3,2% 1983 .

,

.

,
1980- .

1980-
.?

.

,

. 1980 . ,

,

.
,
?

. -,
, 1980- .,
,
.
,
1980- .
?
.
,
1982 .
;
.

,

; c

.

?
.
,

. ,
,
.

. ,

,
.
.
?
, .
,
.
, , ,
,
,
.
1985
1991 ., 19891991 .
Resolution
Trust Corporation
,

1000
.

.
Bank Director,
CNBC.
credo,
.
, "

-
?
43
VEDOMOSTI.RU
|

.

,
,
,
.
.

.
Bank of
America
Citibank
,
,
.
. ;

.
,
,
,
- ,

, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac.
,
-
1980- .
.
,

: , ,
,
.
.
,
,
.
,
.
credo,
.
, .

. 2000 .
,
,
S&P/Case-Shiller
Home
Price,

.
,

,
,
,
. 2003 .
, :
20002002 .

?
70% : , ,
.
30% ,
, 10 .

:
.
,
,
. .

,
. -
, ,

, .
, ,
,

;

,
;
.
,
,
?
,
.
,

.
,

,
70 .
, ,
,
.
,
1990- .
44
VEDOMOSTI.RU
|
BoNY M.
Pro Finance Service
,
Pro Finance
(Michael
Woolfolk),
Bank
of New York Mellon. 18.01.2008
-

.
,
?
(.
ProFinance.ru:
)
, , ,

,
.
- ,

?
-
,
,
50%,
""
45%.
- ,
?
- ,
,
MSCI Emerging
Market Index (. ProFinance.ru:
Morgan Stanley Capital International
Emerging Markets Index -

, Morgan
Stanley
700 :
, , , ,
, ,
,
,
,
, , ,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
, , ,
),
G7
,
.
, G7
,
,
,
, ,
, ,
. P/E,

,

.
-

?
,
?
,
- ,

/,
,

.
,
-
,
,

Bank of New York Mellon
/
$1.50
- G7
,
,

.
,
, ,
-
,
,
,
, ,
.

,
.
-
,
?
- ,

1.5% /,

,

.
-

45
FOREXPF.RU
|

2007
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4

( )
Algeria
1.36
1.36
1.37
Indonesia
0.86
0.85
0.84
Iran
3.70
3.70
3.70
Kuwait
2.43
2.42
2.51
Libya
1.68
1.68
1.70
Nigeria
2.11
2.06
2.15
Qatar
0.79
0.79
0.84
Saudi Arabia
8.65
8.60
8.63
United Arab Emirates
2.49
2.50
2.55
Venezuela
2.36
2.40
2.40
26.43
26.36
26.69
Angola
1.57
1.64
1.66
Iraq
1.93
2.07
2.05
29.93
30.07
30.40
31.00
OPEC-10 Total
OPEC-12 Total
4.57
4.51
4.49
4.55
34.51
34.58
34.90
35.55
Algeria
1.42
1.42
1.42
Indonesia
0.86
0.85
0.84
Iran
3.75
3.75
3.75
Kuwait
2.60
2.62
2.65
Libya
1.70
1.70
1.74
Nigeria
2.11
2.07
2.15
Qatar
0.85
0.85
0.88
10.50
10.50
10.50
2.60
2.60
2.60
Venezuela
2.45
2.43
2.40
28.84
28.78
28.93
Angola
1.57
1.64
1.66
Iraq
1.93
2.07
2.05
32.34
32.49
32.64
32.81
Algeria
0.06
0.06
0.05
Indonesia
0.00
0.00
0.00
Iran
0.05
0.05
0.05
Kuwait
0.17
0.20
0.14
Libya
0.02
0.02
0.04
Nigeria
0.00
0.01
0.00
Qatar
0.06
0.06
0.04
Saudi Arabia
1.85
1.90
1.87
0.11
0.10
0.05
Venezuela
0.09
0.03
0.00
OPEC-10 Total
2.41
2.42
2.24
Angola
0.00
0.00
0.00
Iraq
0.00
0.00
0.00
OPEC-12 Total
2.41
2.42
2.24
1.82
Other Liquids
Total OPEC-12 Supply
Crude Oil Production Capacity
(Million barrels per day)
Saudi Arabia
OPEC-10 Total
OPEC-12 Total
Surplus Crude Oil Production Capacity
(Million barrels per day)
46
|

Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
Region
Stocks (Bcf) for January 11,

2008
Stocks (Bcf) for January 04,

2008
Implied Net Change

(Bcf)
Year Ago Stocks

(Bcf)
East
1,482
1,511
-29
1,667
West
351
375
-20
365
Producing
858
864
-6
916
Total lower
48
2,691
2,750
-59
2,949
* , EIA, 11 2,691 Bcf. -59 Bcf 4

2008. 259 Bcf , , +168 Bcf 5-
2,523 Bcf.

47
ALPARI.ORG
|

Petroleum Stocks - Weekly Estimates
Million
Barrels
Change form
01/11/2007 01/04/2006
Week
Change
form Year
Crude Oil
287.1
282.8
+4.3
-34.4
Gasoline
215.3
213.1
+2.2
-1.5
Distillate
129.8
128.7
+1.5
-12.3
Propane
48.668
51.223
-2.555
-8.860
Charts
48
ALPARI.ORG
|
R/J CRB Index - Weekly
Symbol
Date
Open
High
Low
Close
Volume
Change
CRY0
01/18/08
361.41
363.69
359.88
360.87
-0.54
Stochastic
Moving Average
Day
09
18
40
Day
09
18
20
364.79
363.18
354.20
Sto
20.43
44.10
54.55
%K
22.87
51.88
58.61
%D
34.00
61.92
66.46
Momentum
Day
09
18
40
99.60
101.87
102.35
Directional Indicator
FIRST Relative Strength Index

Day
Day
09
18
20
09
14
20
ADX
26.88
48.41
39.40
47.22
52.78
59.80
+DI
17.86
30.69
31.95
-DI
26.70
22.50
20.35
Date
Open
High
Low
Close
Volume
Change
01/18/08
361.41
363.69
359.88
360.87
-0.54
01/17/08
361.26
364.34
361.10
361.41
0.15
01/16/08
365.57
365.57
358.28
361.26
-4.31
01/15/08
370.22
370.30
364.52
365.57
-4.65
01/14/08
365.15
370.96
365.15
370.22
5.07
Year High --- 01/14/08 370.96

Year Low --- 02/20/07 277.66
49
ALPARI.ORG
|
US Dollar Index - Weekly
Symbol
Date
Open
High
Low
Close
Volume
Change
DXY0
01/18/08
76.30
76.49
76.14
76.39
0.16
Stochastic
Moving Average
Day
09
18
40
Day
09
18
20
76.08
76.22
76.37
Sto
90.25
49.48
47.70
Momentum
Day
09
18
40
100.30
98.45
101.79
84.31
45.48
43.19
69.87
37.42
35.68

Day
%K
%D
Day
09
18
20
39.56
35.15
34.17
09
14
20
ADX
54.81
45.89
38.91
+DI
19.99
12.35
11.94
-DI
17.38
34.67
33.86
Date
Open
High
Low
Close
Volume
Change
01/18/08
76.30
76.49
76.14
76.39
0.16
01/17/08
76.19
76.52
75.96
76.23
-0.08
01/16/08
75.54
76.46
75.43
76.31
0.57
01/15/08
75.48
75.79
75.20
75.74
0.12
01/14/08
75.61
75.93
75.36
75.62
-0.36
Year High --- 01/26/07 85.43

Year Low --- 11/23/07 74.48
50
ALPARI.ORG
|
Euro Currency Index-Weekly
Symbol
Date
Open
High
Low
Close
Volume
Change
EY0
01/18/08
115.89
116.42
115.62
115.89
0.13
Stochastic
Moving Average
Day
09
18
40
Day
09
18
20
116.83
116.87
116.24
Sto
11.34
11.34
11.34
Momentum
Day
Day
09
18
40
99.19
99.83
100.06
%K
10.48
11.31
23.72
%D
23.58
31.29
41.71
Day
09
18
20
09
14
20
ADX
41.28
32.92
26.45
37.87
43.46
50.96
+DI
14.89
24.34
26.65
-DI
29.30
21.04
19.91
Date
Open
High
Low
Close
Volume
01/18/08
115.89
116.42
115.62
115.89
Change
0.13
01/17/08
116.26
116.35
115.72
115.76
-0.41
01/16/08
117.09
117.23
115.75
116.17
-0.82
01/15/08
117.81
117.93
116.91
116.99
-0.89
01/14/08
117.87
117.98
117.54
117.88
0.46
Year High --- 01/14/08 117.98

Year Low --- 02/06/07 106.90
51
ALPARI.ORG

01 | ?
|
|
52

01 | ?
|
|
53

Элитный трейдер 005

Загружено:

Сведения о документе

Авторское право

Доступные форматы

Поделиться этим документом

Поделиться или встроить документ

Параметры публикации

Этот документ был вам полезен?

Это неприемлемый материал?

Авторское право:

Доступные форматы

Элитный трейдер 005

Загружено:

Авторское право:

Доступные форматы

21 2008

FXSTREET.COM Fibo & Pip

08/ 03/ ELITETRADER.RU

: Empire state ISM.

08/ 03/ ELITETRADER.RU

Heating Oil February 08 ($US

08/ 03/ ELITETRADER.RU

08/ 03/ ELITETRADER.RU

08/ 03/ ELITETRADER.RU

(Brent Crude, February

(Natural Gas, February

(Heating Oil, February

08/ 03/ ELITETRADER.RU

08/ 03/ ELITETRADER.RU

08/ 03/ ELITETRADER.RU

USA 318K 301K

24.01.2008 23:00 Existing home sales (December), mln

USA 4,97 5.00

08/ 03/ ELITETRADER.RU

08/ 03/ ELITETRADER.RU

08/ 03/ ELITETRADER.RU

(CPI core) Y/Y

08/ 03/ ELITETRADER.RU

08/ 03/ ELITETRADER.RU

08/ 03/ ELITETRADER.RU

08/ 03/ ELITETRADER.RU

08/ 03/ ELITETRADER.RU

08/ 03/ ELITETRADER.RU

08/ 03/ ELITETRADER.RU

08/ 03/ ELITETRADER.RU

08/ 03/ ELITETRADER.RU

08/ 03/ ELITETRADER.RU

08/ 03/ ELITETRADER.RU

08/ 03/ ELITETRADER.RU

08/ 03/ ELITETRADER.RU

08/ 03/ ELITETRADER.RU

08/ 03/ ELITETRADER.RU

KROUFR.RU INVESTOPEDIA Katrina Lamb

08/ 03/ ELITETRADER.RU

KROUFR.RU INVESTOPEDIA Katrina Lamb

08/ 03/ ELITETRADER.RU

FOREXPF.RU , Times Online

08/ 03/ ELITETRADER.RU

FOREXPF.RU , The Independent

08/ 03/ ELITETRADER.RU

FOREXPF.RU , The Independent

08/ 03/ ELITETRADER.RU

08/ 03/ ELITETRADER.RU

FOREXPF.RU , The Independent

08/ 03/ ELITETRADER.RU

FOREXPF.RU , The Independent

08/ 03/ ELITETRADER.RU

Pro Finance Service

FOREXPF.RU , The Independent

08/ 03/ ELITETRADER.RU

FOREXPF.RU , Financial Times

08/ 03/ ELITETRADER.RU

FINAM.RU Mark Vitner, Wachovia Corp

08/ 03/ ELITETRADER.RU

FINAM.RU Mark Vitner, Wachovia Corp

08/ 03/ ELITETRADER.RU

Smithers & Co,

FOREXPF.RU , The Financial Times

08/ 03/ ELITETRADER.RU