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4 2008

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mail@elitetrader.ru

1.


-
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-
-
- 2000

2.

3.



-
_98
FX

4.
?

5.
FOMC








?

6.

7.

8.

9.
IMM


: R/J CRB

ELITETRADER.RU

08/ 05/ ELITETRADER.RU

? |
28 1 2008


.

0,1%,

1,3%.

,

1,0%,
2007
4,0%.


0,9%,
1,1%.

2007 .

3,4%.

,

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1,4% ,

0,7%.

0,8%
.

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3,8%,

,
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0,1%,
4,2%.
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2001 .
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.

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.


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,
10,86%
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1963 .


2003 .
,


,
.


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5,2%,

2,6%.

:

50,7,

51,5.
,
50,0.
,
-
,
.

3,5%
3,0%,

1,25..
4,25% 3,0%.

ALPARI.ORG

08/ 05/ ELITETRADER.RU

? |
28 1 2008
:
4,73%, 604 ..
5,2%.
87,9.
1,4%, 0,7%.
4 0,6%.
: 0,5.. 3,0%.
3,2%.
0,1%.
0,5%, 0,2%.
51,5.
17 ., 4,9%.
1,1%, 0,9%.
78,4.
50,7.

.
0,6%
SAAR,
4
0,16%.
2006
2,2%,
2002
,

1,6%.


2007 .
, 2003

, 17 .


18 . 82 .

,
2007 191
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,

376
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,
2008

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ALPARI.ORG

08/ 05/ ELITETRADER.RU

? |
Rietumu Banka

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2008

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2008 . ,


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17,000
82,000
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21,000
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20 .

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27

45

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34

143 .
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0.2%
0.4%.

3.7%.

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2006
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5.0%.

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2007 .

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0.6%.

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0.5%
0.4%.
,
0.2%
1.0%.
,
,

.
- 50 .

,
,

WWW.RIETUMUTRADING.COM

08/ 05/ ELITETRADER.RU

01 |

?
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|
|

Rietumu Banka

.
PCE 0.2%
0.6%.

,
. :
4.7%
12.6%.
41% (!). ,

,
.
5.2%
0.5%.

. ,
,
-- 2.6%.
ISM.
2.3 .
50.0,
.


Dow Jones

12,743.17

+92.83

(+0.7%)

Nasdaq Comp

2413.36

+23.50

(+1.0%)

S&P 500

1395.42

+16.87

(+1.2%)

30 Year US Treasury
Bonds (US, CBOT) March 2008

119.19

-0.16

NYSE Vol

1,680 Million

-242

(-12.6 %)

Nasdaq Vol

3,000 Million

+297

(+10.6 %)

Light
Crude
(NYM)
March 08 ($US per bbl.)

88.96

-2.79

Brent
Crude
March 08 ($US per bbl.)

92.21

-0.32

2.5061

+0.0420

(NYM)

Heating Oil March 08 ($US per


gal.)


:

Csk Auto Corp (NYSE: CAO), Viad Cp (NYSE: VVI), Ambac Fin 5.875 Deb (NYSE:
AKT), Synthemed (OTC: SYMD), Yahoo Inc (NasdaqNM: YHOO), Isoray Inc
(AMEX: ISR), Orleans Homebuilders (AMEX: OHB)

Macquaire First GLbl (NYSE: MFD), Pzena Inv (NYSE: PZN), Actuate Corporation
(NYSE: ACTU), Corgenix Med Corp (OTC: CONX), titan global holdings (OTC:
TTGLE), Nephros (OTC: NEP), Ultrashort FTSE China (AMEX: FXP), Sprt Supply
Group (AMEX: RBI)

Motorola (NYSE: MOT), Citigroup Inc (NYSE: C), Nasdaq 100 Trust series 1 (OTC:
QQQQ), Microsoft Inc (NasdaqNM: MSFT), Standard & Poor Depositary Receipts
(AMEX: SPX); iShares Russel 2000 Index Tr (AMEX: IWM)

, ,
. ,

.
S&P500.
EMA30,
,
38.2%.
, , ,
.


. , ,
,
.

EMA30

1395

SMA50

1429

09/05/2006

1326

23/01/2008

1270

WWW.RIETUMUTRADING.COM

08/ 05/ ELITETRADER.RU

01 |

?
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|
|

Rietumu Banka

WWW.RIETUMUTRADING.COM

08/ 05/ ELITETRADER.RU

01 |

?
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|
|

Rietumu Banka
?
,
, , .

, , ,
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.

38.2%, NASDAQ,
S&P500 . :

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: Dow Jones 12724.
26 2007 .
,
SMA50, ~12973.
,
,
.

SMA50

2545

EMA30

2456

14/03/2007

2367

23/01/2008

2202

SMA50

12972
12343


.
, .
,

flight to quality. ,

.

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50 .

, flight to
safety
. ,

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17 , 10- 10
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23/01/2008

11644

14/03/2007

12133

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,
89.4%.
, :
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,

WWW.RIETUMUTRADING.COM

08/ 05/ ELITETRADER.RU

01 |

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|
|

Rietumu Banka
. , ,


29.67 (.
). ,

. 10%.
, ,
,
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10% . ,
: 2007
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8795 USD , ,

.


(Light Crude, February 2008, CO28,
NYMEX)

100.00

N/a
(Light Crude, February
2008, CO28, NYMEX)
21/11/2007

97.60

6/12/2007

86.05


(Brent Crude, February 2008, LO, IPE)

26/11/2007

95.93

100.00

(Brent Crude, February


2008, LO, IPE)
6/12/2007

86.37

90.00


(Heating Oil, February 2008, HO28,
NYMEX)

N/a
23/11/2007

2.72

(Heating Oil, February


2008, HO28, NYMEX)
28/09/2007

2.296

19/10/2007

2.36


(Natural Gas, February 2008, NG28,
NYMEX)

23/01/2007

7.57

(Natural Gas, February


2008, NG28, NYMEX)
07/07/2006

5.47

18/01/2007

6.19

WWW.RIETUMUTRADING.COM

08/ 05/ ELITETRADER.RU

01 |

?
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|
|

Rietumu Banka
,

. ,
,
NFP.
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1.49 .
,
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-

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,
SMA200
. SMA200
, 2000
, 2,68%
1978,68 . 3,45%,
3,7%, - 3,99%.
89,6$. ,


USD/JPY

22/06/2007

123.77

17/05/2006

108.79

SMA200

115.00

23.6 % ( 124.15
108.97)

109.67

USD/JPY

105


EUR/USD

1.5

N/A
N/A
23/11/2007

1.4967

EUR/USD

30/09/2007

1.43

SMA50

1.4640

50 % ( 1.43
1.3358)

1.3939

1.4

(-4,46%), (5,04%) (-4,73%).


0,36%
. 3,78%,
1641,03 .
,
SMA200.
1678,42 ,

2,63%

SMA200

1978,66

2001,70

1981,53

1907,84

1968,97

-2,68%

$8126.8 .

+1,57%

$7878.89 .

-1,40%

$7477.3 .

-3,70%

$9578.64 .

+3,25%

$9221.91 .

WWW.RIETUMUTRADING.COM

08/ 05/ ELITETRADER.RU

01 |

?
?
|
|

Rietumu Banka
54,6 . .
2000 ,
1,57%.
,
3,55%.
2,6% 2,19%,
1,18%.

51%
Naftna Industrija Srbije.
2,46%. ,
1981,53 , 1,4%
.
(-3,5%) (2,8%).
,
,
, $5
. .

, ,
.
3,7%, 1907,84
.
3-4%. , ,
4-5%, 6%,
169,6 .
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.
(+7,93%)
$5 .,
,
29% +1
.
(+5,44%) (+4,61%).
1,93%.
1640,49,
4,2%
89,03 . .
1968,97 3,25%.

,
, .
: SMA200
, ,
,
.
,
- ,
. ,
SMA200 .

08/ 05/ ELITETRADER.RU 10


WWW.RIETUMUTRADING.COM

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50,0.

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.

.


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18,7
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.

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0,6%

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,

,
,
, ..

08/ 05/ ELITETRADER.RU 11


ALPARI.ORG

? |

:
04.02.2008

13:00

05.02.2008

06:30

05.02.2008

12:30

05.02.2008

13:00

05.02.2008

18:00

06.02.2008

16:30

4 .

06.02.2008

18:00

07.02.2008

12:30

07.02.2008

15:00

07.02.2008

15:45

. 16:30 - .-.
.

07.02.2008

18:00

08.02.2008

14:00

08.02.2008

16:30

()

04.02.2008
18:00
18:00

EU(13)
EU(13)

23:00

USA

PPI (December)
PPI (December) Y/Y
Factory orders (December)

0.8%
4.1%

2.2%

1.5%

49.7
58.9
51.2
53.1
52.4
0.3%
2.6%
2.8
-0.5%
-1.4%

53.5

53.9

1.5 %.
.
5.2% ,
, .
05.02.2008
16:45
16:50
16:55
17:00
17:30
18:00
18:00
18:00
18:00
18:00
21:55
23:00

Italy
France
Germany
EU(13)
UK
Italy
Italy
Italy
EU(13)
EU(13)
USA
USA

PMI services (January)


PMI services (January)
PMI services (January) seasonally adjusted
PMI services (January)
CIPS services index (January)
CPI (January) preliminary
CPI (January) preliminary Y/Y
HICP (January) preliminary Y/Y
Retail sales (December) adjusted
Retail sales (December) adjusted Y/Y
Redbook (02.02)
ISM services index (January)

08/ 05/ ELITETRADER.RU 12


WWW.RIETUMUTRADING.COM

? |

,
. 50.
53.9,
54.1.
06.02.2008
07:30

Australia
New
Zealand
13:00 Japan
13:00 Japan
UK
21:30 USA

21:30

RBA meeting announcement


Waitangi Day
Leading indicators (December) preliminary
Coincident indicators (December) preliminary
BoE meeting begins
Productivity (Q4) preliminary
Unit labour cost (Q4) preliminary

USA

18.2
30.0

0.7%

6.3%

-2.0%

-2.0%
-

-0.1%
0.4%
-0.1%
0.1%
3.4%
13.6%

352K

375K

3-
, 4-
.
6.3%, 2.2 % .
2.0%, 1.1% .
07.02.2008
17:30
17:30
17:30
17:30
19:00
19:00
19:00
20:00
20:45
21:30
21:30

UK
UK
UK
UK
Germany
Germany
Germany
UK
EU(15)
EU(15)
USA

Industrial production (December)


Industrial production (December) Y/Y
Manufacturing output (December)
Manufacturing output (December) Y/Y
Manufacturing orders (December) adjusted
Manufacturing orders (December) adjusted Y/Y
Manufacturing orders (December) unadjusted Y/Y
BoE meeting announcement
ECB meeting announcement
ECB press conference
Jobless claims (week to 02.02)

08/ 05/ ELITETRADER.RU 13


WWW.RIETUMUTRADING.COM

? |

69,000 26 2007 --
375,000. 2 .
08.02.2008
Consumer credit (December), bln

04:00

USA

05:30
07:50
07:50
07:50
15:00
15:00
16:00
16:00
19:00
19:00
19:00
20:00
20:00
23:00

USA
Japan
Japan
Japan
Germany
Germany
UK
UK
Germany
Germany
Germany
Canada
Canada
USA

15.5 .
M2 money supply (28.01), bln
(M2+CDs) money supply (January) Y/Y
Machinery orders (December) adjusted
Machinery orders (December) unadjusted Y/Y
Trade balance (December) unadjusted, bln
Current account (December) unadjusted, bln
Halifax house price index (January)
Halifax house price index (January) 3m Y/Y
Industrial production (December) adjusted
Industrial production (December) adjusted Y/
Industrial production (December) unadjusted Y/Y
Employment (January)
Unemployment rate (January)
Wholesale inventories (December)
G7 meeting (09.02)

+9.0

+15.5

0.8%
0.3%

+50.4
2.1%
-2.8%
0.9%
19.3
20.0
1.3%
5.2%
-0.9%
3.5%
3.4%
-18.7K
5.9%
0.6%

08/ 05/ ELITETRADER.RU 14


WWW.RIETUMUTRADING.COM

:



.


-,
19

.


.

,
MFS,
, 11
. MFS Premium
Income Fund ,
180
,
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Financial Times. ,


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0.8%
,
2006

0.2%.

1.4% -

1.6%.

3.8% -


0.98,
2005 .

,
2.3%

2.2%.


-
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Times,


,
,
,

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Yomiuri Shimbun ,

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19
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(

) 47.2 .
30.6 . ?



,
Nihon Keizai
Shimbun,

Mizuho
Securities

08/ 05/ ELITETRADER.RU 15


ITINVEST.RU

|



250
. ;
Mizuho Financial Group
300 .

,

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,


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. UBS

2007

12.5 .
,

(
) 13
.;

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1.9 . .
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95 .


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Generale

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Times, , BNP
Paribas


-
,
.


Sunday Times
-:

;
4 10%
2

,
;

Corin, Phylon,
Addax FX1, Henderson Global
Currency, Odey Treasury, Sector
ERV, Kinetic Special Situations,
Systeia Alternative Risk Trading
Polar
Technology.

Daily
Telegraph
, ,


,
:
2007

53 .

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;

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2006
6.9%;

15-

8.1%,

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4.4%

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,

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Hometrack,
2.3%, Nationwide,
4.2% -

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0.25%.

,
:

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.
,


:

08/ 05/ ELITETRADER.RU 16


ITINVEST.RU

|

Guardian
(

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;


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.
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2007 . ,
,
0.6%
(.. 0.15%
)
:

,
,
0.02%
.


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:

1.78%,

0.86% -
,

.


23.9%
,
1981 .
:

3.9%

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, ).
,

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1.9% ;
,
,

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:

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2003 .

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111 . .


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2007
376 . ,

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(
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Standard &
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8.4%; 20

7.7%;
11
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(-15.1%) - (13.4%), -
(-13.2%) (-13.0%).

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,

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,
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,


:
2007
40.7% ,
2006
45

: 1980,
1981 .

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14.1%
(

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2006

10.4

11.5%

,
1970
).

Standard
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2007 .
-
:

,
,

1981/82
1991
;

(1966, 1970
1974/75 )

,

08/ 05/ ELITETRADER.RU 17


ITINVEST.RU

|

,
, 2007

;
,
, ..
-

1980/90-
;

1970/71
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08/ 05/ ELITETRADER.RU 18


ITINVEST.RU


$2

,
,


17000, ,

82000.

OPEC

.

WTI $2.79,
3%, $88.96 .
,
1.9%.

11%
$100.09 , 3
.

.

EIA.
,

,
,
, 27
2006.

,
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US DOE.
EIA, ,

25
,

14.6 .
, 302000
bpd , .


85%.


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3.9
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, 100000
bpd , .

10.1 .
,

1.2 . .

277000 bpd.

3.6 .
293.0
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NYMEX,
100000 15.8 .
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3.6
.

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8 .
,

$89.12,
, ,
.
(CLH8/QMH8).
$88.90.
- $90.50. - $86.00

08/ 05/ ELITETRADER.RU 19


ALPARI.ORG

|
-

,

.
, ,

.

,

,

,
.
.

0.5%.
.
,

.
17000

+
70000.

.

.
,

1.4710

1.4500.


.

1.9490.

.

. ().
.


7- .

,
:
http://elitetrader.ru/index.php?newsid=154


.

.

,
.
.

,
.
.
,
.

.
.
.
.
,
. -

1.4900.

1.5000
, .

1.5000.

1.5000 .
,
.

08/ 05/ ELITETRADER.RU 20


WHCMARKET.RU

|
4 . _98
(HavardAR)
4
.

_98.
18:00msk,
1feb2008:


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2008 . .
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Stock

Cash-position,%

Long-position,%

,%

Day-order

60m-order

AVAZ

7.084

+2.020

B=5dec07

GAZP

20.296

-7.152

S=18jan08

S=16jan08

GMKN

16.334

+15.744

S=20nov07

B=25jan08

LKOH

18.512

-2.688

S=20dec07

S=17dec07

SBER

S=28dec07

S=17dec07

SNGS

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08/ 05/ ELITETRADER.RU 26


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08/ 05/ ELITETRADER.RU 29


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08/ 05/ ELITETRADER.RU 32


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08/ 05/ ELITETRADER.RU 35


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08/ 05/ ELITETRADER.RU 36


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08/ 05/ ELITETRADER.RU 37


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08/ 05/ ELITETRADER.RU 38


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08/ 05/ ELITETRADER.RU 39


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08/ 05/ ELITETRADER.RU 41


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08/ 05/ ELITETRADER.RU 42


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08/ 05/ ELITETRADER.RU 43


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|

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08/ 05/ ELITETRADER.RU 44


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08/ 05/ ELITETRADER.RU 45


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08/ 05/ ELITETRADER.RU 46


FOREXPF.RU The Economist

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08/ 05/ ELITETRADER.RU 47


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08/ 05/ ELITETRADER.RU 48


FOREXPF.RU The Economist

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08/ 05/ ELITETRADER.RU 49


INOPRESSA.RU , Time

|
?
Pro Finance Service

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08/ 05/ ELITETRADER.RU 50


INOPRESSA.RU - , Le Point

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-

08/ 05/ ELITETRADER.RU 51


FINANSMAG.RU

.

MBIA Ambac
, :

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08/ 05/ ELITETRADER.RU 52


FINANSMAG.RU


Pro Finance Service


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Times,

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".
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,
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08/ 05/ ELITETRADER.RU 53


FOREXPF.RU

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08/ 05/ ELITETRADER.RU 54


FOREXPF.RU


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08/ 05/ ELITETRADER.RU 55


ITOGI.RU

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08/ 05/ ELITETRADER.RU 56


ITOGI.RU

|

.
2006


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08/ 05/ ELITETRADER.RU 57


ITOGI.RU

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08/ 05/ ELITETRADER.RU 58


KROUFR.RU Peter Kaplan

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08/ 05/ ELITETRADER.RU 59


KROUFR.RU Peter Kaplan

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08/ 05/ ELITETRADER.RU 60


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08/ 05/ ELITETRADER.RU 61


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08/ 05/ ELITETRADER.RU 62


KROUFR.RU Peter Kaplan

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08/ 05/ ELITETRADER.RU 63


KROUFR.RU Peter Kaplan

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IMM International Monetary Market. - Chicago Mercantile Exchange,
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08/ 05/ ELITETRADER.RU 64


FINMARKET.COM.UA

|



2007
Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4


( )
Algeria

1.36

1.36

1.37

Indonesia

0.86

0.85

0.84

Iran

3.70

3.70

3.70

Kuwait

2.43

2.42

2.51

Libya

1.68

1.68

1.70

Nigeria

2.11

2.06

2.15

Qatar

0.79

0.79

0.84

Saudi Arabia

8.65

8.60

8.63

United Arab Emirates

2.49

2.50

2.55

Venezuela

2.36

2.40

2.40

26.43

26.36

26.69

Angola

1.57

1.64

1.66

Iraq

1.93

2.07

2.05

29.93

30.07

30.40

31.00

OPEC-10 Total

OPEC-12 Total

4.57

4.51

4.49

4.55

34.51

34.58

34.90

35.55

Algeria

1.42

1.42

1.42

Indonesia

0.86

0.85

0.84

Iran

3.75

3.75

3.75

Kuwait

2.60

2.62

2.65

Libya

1.70

1.70

1.74

Nigeria

2.11

2.07

2.15

Qatar

0.85

0.85

0.88

10.50

10.50

10.50

United Arab Emirates

2.60

2.60

2.60

Venezuela

2.45

2.43

2.40

28.84

28.78

28.93

Angola

1.57

1.64

1.66

Iraq

1.93

2.07

2.05

32.34

32.49

32.64

32.81

Algeria

0.06

0.06

0.05

Indonesia

0.00

0.00

0.00

Iran

0.05

0.05

0.05

Kuwait

0.17

0.20

0.14

Libya

0.02

0.02

0.04

Nigeria

0.00

0.01

0.00

Qatar

0.06

0.06

0.04

Saudi Arabia

1.85

1.90

1.87

United Arab Emirates

0.11

0.10

0.05

Venezuela

0.09

0.03

0.00

OPEC-10 Total

2.41

2.42

2.24

Angola

0.00

0.00

0.00

Iraq

0.00

0.00

0.00

OPEC-12 Total

2.41

2.42

2.24

1.82

Other Liquids
Total OPEC-12 Supply
Crude Oil Production Capacity
(Million barrels per day)

Saudi Arabia

OPEC-10 Total

OPEC-12 Total
Surplus Crude Oil Production Capacity
(Million barrels per day)

08/ 05/ ELITETRADER.RU 65


WWW.RIETUMUTRADING.COM

|

Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
Region

Stocks (Bcf) for January 25,


2008

Stocks (Bcf) for January 18,


2008

Implied Net Change


(Bcf)

Year Ago Stocks


(Bcf)

East

1,257

1,402

-145

1,482

West

285

325

-40

302

Producing

720

809

-89

813

Total lower
48

2,262

2,536

-274

2,598

* , EIA, 25 2,262 Bcf. -274 Bcf


18 2008. 336 Bcf , , +85 Bcf 5-
2,177 Bcf.

08/ 05/ ELITETRADER.RU 66


ALPARI.ORG

|

Petroleum Stocks - Weekly Estimates
Million
Barrels

Change form
01/18/2007 01/11/2006
Week

Change
form Year

Crude Oil

289.4

287.1

+2.3

-32.8

Gasoline

220.3

215.3

+5.0

-0.5

Distillate

128.5

129.8

-1.3

-14.1

Propane

45.425

48.668

-3.243

-8.132

Charts

08/ 05/ ELITETRADER.RU 67


ALPARI.ORG

|
R/J CRB Index - Weekly

Symbol

Date

Open

High

Low

Close

Volume

Change

CRY0

02/01/08

369.46

370.27

364.06

364.34

-5.12

Stochastic

Moving Average
Day

09

18

40

Day

09

18

20

362.08

363.44

357.83

Sto

72.05

69.79

69.79

%K

90.19

83.93

83.93

%D

88.10

81.07

81.16

Momentum
Day

09

18

40

100.96

100.56

107.13

FIRST Relative Strength Index


Day

Directional Indicator
Day

09

18

20

09

14

20

ADX

33.32

25.70

27.79

54.69

49.22

46.92

+DI

23.67

20.94

19.09

-DI

28.10

27.45

29.84

Date

Open

High

Low

Close

Volume

Change

02/01/08

369.46

370.27

364.06

364.34

-5.12

01/31/08

368.52

369.64

364.87

369.46

0.94

01/30/08

367.19

368.64

367.05

368.52

1.33

01/29/08

364.16

367.78

364.07

367.19

3.03

01/28/08

360.91

364.26

359.87

364.16

2.52

Year High --- 01/14/08 370.96


Year Low --- 02/20/07 277.66

08/ 05/ ELITETRADER.RU 68


ALPARI.ORG

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