Using Poisson

Distribution to
predict a Soccer
Betting Winner

By

SYED AHMER RIZVI

1511060 Section A
Quantitative Methods - I

APPLICATION OF DESCRIPTIVE STATISTICS AND PROBABILITY IN SOCCER

Concept
This article was published by the popular sports bookmaker Pinnacle Sports. It details the use of Poisson
distribution to work with data sets from past events i.e. Average Number of goals scored in a match by a team
during the past and current English Premier League Seasons to calculate the likely number of goals that will be
scored by the same team in the upcoming matches. This concept forms the basic model behind the football
sportsbook rates offered by online betting giants such as 365.com and wbx.com.
For example Manchester United might average 1.7 goals per game in the last season. Entering this data as
Expected Value/Mean into a Poisson formula would show that this average equates to Manchester United
scoring 0 goals 18.3% of the time, 1 goal 31% of the time, 2 goals 26.4% of the time and 3 goals 15% of the
time.
Application methodology
Lets assume Team 1 is playing the match at its home stadium
The method used to come up with the likely number of goals for a particular game is as follows:
For Team 1
Team 1s Goals = {Team 1s Offence} X {Team 2s Defense} X {Average Goals/Game by any club}
For Team 2
Team 2s Goals = {Team 2s Offence) X {Team 1s Defense} X {Average Goals/Game by any club}
Where

Team 1s Offence = {Number of Goals Scored at Home Last Season / (Number of Home Matches Last
Season) X (Average Goals scored/Game at Home last Season by any club)}

Team 2s Offence = {Number of Goals Scored Away Last Season / (Number of Away Matches Last
Season) X (Average Goals scored/Game Away last Season by any club)}

Team 1s Defense = {Number of Goals conceded at Home Last Season / (Number of Home Matches
Last Season) X (Average Goals conceded/Game at Home last Season by any club)}

Team 2s Defense = {Number of Goals conceded Away Last Season / (Number of Away Matches Last
Season) X (Average Goals conceded/Game at Home last Season by any club)}

The Last Step is to use the Poisson distribution Formula to calculate the Betting/Goals Table.
P(x; ) = (e-) (x) / x!
Where = Average Goals / Game
X = Different goals outcomes (0-5) in the Random Variable (x) category

Lets assume Team 1s (Expected Value) = 1.654 Goals/Game and Team 2s Goals (Expected value) = 1.278
Goals/Game.
The below embedded excel sheet can be used to find the Probability of the number of goals scored by each
team.
For example, we want to look at chances of the match being a 2 2 Draw, we can do that as:

Probability (2 2 Draw) = Probability (Team 1s Goals = 2) X Probability (Team 2s Goals = 2)

Since we are assuming Team 1s Goals and Team 2s Goals are independent events
= 0.2616 X 0.2275
= 5.95 %

This also implies that in-case you place a bet on the final score line being 2-2, you have a probability of 5.95%
of winning the bet.
Similarly probabilities of all possible score-lines can be calculated.

Please click on the excel sheet to check the formulas.

Goal Likelihood Table

Team 1's Goals
1.654
Team 2's Goals
1.278
Goals 0
1
2
3
4
5
Team 1 19.13% 31.64% 26.16% 14.43% 5.96% 1.97%
Team 2 27.86% 35.60% 22.75% 9.69% 3.10% 0.79%
Note: The values of Mean 1 and Mean 2 can be changed in respective cells.

CHOICE OF TOPIC

The two main reasons for choosing the topic Using Poisson Distribution to predict Soccer Betting Winner are:

Personal Interest
Being a football fanatic and having followed the English Premier League religiously for the past 8 or 9 years,
I was always aware that statistics plays a major part in the opinions shared by football pundits, but had never
looked into the topic in detail. Therefore it was quite interesting for me to look into the nuances of how
Poissons Distribution can be used to predict matches on the basis of a single parameter .

Non Routine Application of Probability/Statistics

The concepts used to demonstrate probability in undergraduate / school level courses usually involve dices,
cards and colored balls. Although these ideas help in developing a basic grasp of the concepts, the
application of Probability to real life situations/industries is a new concept for most of the PGP I students at
IIM Bangalore.
In the recent case study discussions in QM I classes, we have looked at several sectors such as
manufacturing, healthcare and others to understand the role of descriptive statistics in business. One such
sector that is usually cordoned off and not brought up for discussion because of its gray nature is Betting,
although the illegal betting/gambling industry in India is worth 60 Billion USD and is growing exponentially.
One major subdivision of this industry is Sports betting. It involves prediction of sports results and placing
wagers on the outcome with the bookmaker. This activity is legal in most parts of the western world with
places in Asia such as Macau and Hong Kong following the trend. We also often read about the scale of
gambling involved in IPL i.e. Indias richest sports league.

CRITIQUE OF THE METHODOLOGY & ALTERNATIVE METHOD

The model fails to recognize the relation often seen between Score Line and Extraneous Factors such as Pitch
Effect or the X Factor of the new manager. These factors play a major part in the score line and the model
would be not accurate without their inclusion. For example, a densely water soaked pitch prevents many goal
scoring opportunities and hence brings down the average score line.
To include the effect of these factors, I would recommend the use of Conditional Probability.
Lets take the case of rain. A rainy weather condition is unfavorable for long through ball strategy i.e the most
utilized tactic in offense in English football and therefore hinders the attacking capabilities of a team.
Let Event R represent Heavy Rain.
Let Event A represent Team 1s Goals = 2
Let Event B represent Team 2s Goals = 2
Let us assume that Rain decreases the chances of a team scoring N goals by 20N%

Therefore using the original data let us look at the probability of a 2-2 draw in case there is rain.
Probability (2-2|Rain) = Probability (Team 1s Goals = 2|Rain) X Probability (Team 2s Goals = 2|Rain)
= P (A|R) X P (B|R)
Now based on our assumption we can say N = 2 and therefore,
P (A|R) = P(A) X [1 {(20 * 2)/100}] & P (B|R) = P(B) X [1 {(20 * 2)/100}]
P (A|R) = 0.2616 * 0.6 = 0.1569 & P (B|R) = 0.2275 * 0.6 = 0.1365

Probability (2-2|Rain) = Probability (Team 1s Goals = 2|Rain) X Probability (Team 2s Goals = 2|Rain)
= 0.1569 * 0.1365
= 2.14 %
As we can see by taking external factors into consideration, the probability of a 2-2 score-line reduces
considerably. This has an important implication in soccer betting. When the number of external factors in
consideration are large, it is very difficult to come up with a predication of an exact score-line with any level of
confidence. Therefore keep your MONEY SAFE and AVOID GAMBLING.

APPENDIX 1 ARTICLE

http://www.pinnaclesports.com/en/betting-articles/soccer/how-to-calculate-poisson-distribution
Poisson Distribution, coupled with historical data, can provide a method for calculating the likely number
of goals that will be scored in a soccer match. Bettors will find this simple method of how to calculate
the likely outcome of a soccer match using Poisson Distribution very useful.
Poisson Distribution explained
Poisson Distribution is a mathematical concept for translating mean averages into a probability for variable
outcomes. For example, Chelsea might average 1.7 goals per game. Entering this information into a Poisson
formula would show that this average equates to Chelsea scoring 0 goals 18.3% of the time, 1 goal 31% of the
time, 2 goals 26.4% of the time and 3 goals 15% of the time.
How to calculate soccer outcomes with Poisson Distribution
Before we can use Poisson to calculate the likely outcome of a match, we need to calculate the average number
of goals each team is likely to score in that match. This can be calculated determining an Attack and Defence
Strength for each team and comparing them.
Selecting a representative data range is vital when calculating Attack and Defence strengths too long and the
data will not be relevant for the teams current strength, while too short may allow outliers to skew the data. For
this analysis were using the 38 games played by each team in the 2013/14 EPL season.

Calculating Attack and Defence strengths

Calculate the average goals scored at home and away
The first step in calculating Attack and Defence strengths based upon last seasons results is to determine the
average number of goals scored per team, per home game, and per away games.
Calculate this by taking the total number of goals scored last season and dividing it by the number of games
played:
Season Goals Scored at Home / Number of Games (in season)
Season Goals Scored Away / Number of Games (in season)
In 2013/14, that was 598/380 at home and 454/380 away, equalling an average of 1.574 goals per game at
home and 1.195 away.

Average number of goals scored at home: 1.574

Average number of goals scored away from home: 1.195

The difference from the above average is what constitutes a teams Attack Strength.
Well also need the average number of goals an average team concedes. This is simply the inverse of the above
numbers (as the number of goals a home team scores will equal the same number that an away team concedes):

Average number of goals conceded at home: 1.195

Average number of goals conceded away from home: 1.574

We can now use the numbers above to calculate the Attack and Defence Strength of both Manchester United
and Swansea City for their match on August 16th, 2014.
Predicting Man Uniteds Goals
Calculate Man Uniteds Attack Strength:
1. Take the number of goals scored at home last season by the home team (Man United: 29) and divide
by the number of home games (29/19): 1.526
2. Divide this value by the seasons average home goals scored per game (1.526/1.574), to get the Attack
Strength: 0.970. This shows that Man United scored 3.05% fewer goals at home than a hypothetical
average Premier League side last season.
Calculate Swanseas Defence Strength:
1. Take the number of goals conceded away last season by the away team (Swansea: 28) and divide by
the number of away games (28/19): 1.474.
2. Divide this by the seasons average goals conceded by an away team per game (1.474/1.574) to get the
Defence Strength: 0.936. This therefore highlights Swansea conceded 6.35% fewer goals than an
average Premier League side on the road.
We can now use the following formula to calculate the likely number of goals the home team might score:

Man Uniteds Goals = Man Uniteds Attack x Swanseas Defence x Average No. Goals
In this case, thats 0.970* 0.936 * 1.574, which equates to United scoring 1.429 goals.
Predicting Swanseas Goals
Calculate Swanseas Attack Strength:
1. Take the number of goals scored away last season by the away team (Swansea: 21) and divide by the
number of away games (21/19): 1.105
2. Divide this value by the seasons average away goals scored per game (1.105/1.195), to get the Attack
Strength: 0.925. This shows that Swansea scored 7.53% fewer away goals than a hypothetical average
Premier League side.
Calculate Man Uniteds Defence Strength:
1. Take the number of goals conceded at home last season by the home team (Man United: 21) and divide
by the number of home games (21/19): 1.105.
2. Divide this by the seasons average goals conceded by a home team per game (1.105/1.195) to get the
Defence Strength: 0.925. Man United conceded 7.53% more goals than an average Premier League
side at home.
We can now use the following formula to calculate the likely number of goals the away team might score:
Swanseas Goals = Swanseas Attack x Man Uniteds Defence x Average No. Goals
In this case, thats 0.925* 0.925 * 1.195, which equates to Swansea scoring 1.022 goals.
Poisson Distribution betting Predicting multiple match outcomes
Of course, no game ends 1.429 vs. 1.022 this is simply the average. Poisson Distribution, a formula created
by French mathematician Simeon Denis Poisson, allows us to use these figures to distribute 100% of probability
across a range of goal outcomes for each side. The results are shown in the table below:
The formula itself looks like this: P(x; ) = (e-) (x) / x!, however, we can use online tools such as this Poisson
Distribution Calculator to do most of the equation for us.
All we need to do is enter the different goals outcomes (0-5) in the Random Variable (x) category, and the
likelihood of a team scoring (for instance, Swansea at 1.022) in the average rate of success, and the calculator
will output the probability of that score.
Poisson Distribution for Man United vs. Swansea
Goals

Man United

23.95%

34.23%

24.46%

11.65%

4.16%

1.19%

Swansea

35.99%

36.78%

18.79%

6.40%

1.64%

0.33%

This example shows that there is a 23.95% chance that Man Utd will not score, but a 34.23% chance they will
get a single goal and a 24.46% chance theyll score two.

Swansea, on the other hand, are at 35.99% not to score, 36.78% to score one and 18.79% to score two.
Hoping for a side to score five? The probability is 1.19% if United are the scorers, or 0.33% for Swansea to do
it.
As both scores are independent (mathematically-speaking), you can see that the expected score is 1 1. If you
multiply the two probabilities together, youll get the probability of the 1-1 outcome 0.125 or 12.59%.
Now you know how to calculate outcomes, you should compare your result to a bookmakers odds to help see
how they differentiate.
Example: comparing the draw
The above example showed us that a 1-1 draw has a 12.59% chance of occurring, according to our model. But
what if you wanted to bet on the draw, rather than on individual score outcomes? Youd need to calculate the
probability for all of the different draw scorelines 0-0, 1-1, 2-2, 3-3, 4-4, 5-5 etc.
To do this, simply calculate the probability of all possible draw combinations and add them together. This will
give you the chance of a draw occurring, regardless of the score.
Of course, there are actually an infinite number of draw possibilities (both sides could score 10 goals each, for
example), but the chances of a draw above 5-5 are so small that its safe to disregard them for this model.
For the United Swansea game, combining all of the draws gives a probability of 0.266 or 26.6%. Pinnacle
Sports odds were 5.530 (an 18.08% implied probability).
Therefore if last seasons form was a perfect indicator of this seasons results, there would appear to be value
in backing the draw, as the model shows that it more likely to happen than the Pinnacle Sports odds suggest.
Unfortunately it isnt as simple as that, which is why pure Poisson analysis has limitations.
The limits of Poisson Distribution
Poisson Distribution is a simple predictive model that doesnt allow for a lot of factors. Situational factors such
as club circumstances, game status etc. and subjective evaluation of the change of each team during the
transfer window are completely ignored.
In this case, it means the huge x-factor of Manchester Uniteds first Premier League game with new manager
Louis Van Gaal is entirely ignored.
Correlations are also ignored; such as the widely recognised pitch affect that shows certain matches have a
tendency to be either high or low scoring.
These are particularly important areas in lower league games, which can give punters an edge against
bookmakers, while its harder to gain an edge in major leagues, given the expertise that modern bookmakers
like Pinnacle Sports possess.