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ersity of
Agendas and Instability
AGENDA-SETTING AND EQUILIBRIUM
Models of policymaking are generally based on
the twin principles of incrementalism and nega-
tive feedback. Incrementalism can be the result of,
om Prank R. Baur
sicago press, 1993), pp. 6-25,
Frank R. Baumgartner and
Bryan D. Jones
4 deliberate decisional style as decision makers
‘make limited, reversible changes in the status quo
because of bounds on their abilities to predict the
impact of their decisions (Lindblom 1959; Hayes
wer and Bryan D. Jones, Agendas and Instability in American Politics (Chicago: The University of152 Part Three + ‘Theories on the Policy Process
1992). For example, new budgets for agencies are
generally based on the previous year's allocation
(Wildavsky 1984). Incremental changes in politi
cal systems can also be the result of countermo-
Dilization. As one group gains political advantage,
others mobilize to protect themselves. In such
situations, mobilizations are subject to a negative-
feedback process in which changes from the cur-
rent state of the system are not large.
Both forms of change, one deliberate and the
other inadvertent, result in a self-correcting system,
If deliberate incremental decisions characterize pol-
icymaking, then decisions that lead to undesirable
consequences can be reversed. Hence deliberate
inerementalism allows a system to maintain a dy-
‘namic equilibrium with its environment, Similarly,
a democratic system that allows groups to mobilize
‘and countermobilize will display dynamic equilib-
rium, When the system veers away from balance,
it corrects itself, always tending toward an equi
librium between the demands of democratically
organized interests and the policy outputs of gov-
emment. This view of a politcal system at balance
is quite conservative, since it implies that dramatic
changes from the status quo are unlikely.
Even a casual observer of the public agenda
‘can easily note that public attention to social prob-
lems is anything but incremental. Rather, issues
have a way of grabbing headlines and dominating
the schedules of public officials when they were
virwally ignored only weeks or months before.
Policy action may or may not follow attention, but
when it does, it will not flow incrementally. In the
scholarly literature on agenda-setting, incremen-
talism plays little role. Rather, focusing events,
chance occurences, public-opinion campaigns by
organized interests, and speeches by public of
als are seen! to cause issues to shoot high onto
the agenda in a short period.
Herbert Simon has noted that such intermit-
tent performance characterizes certain classes of,
social systems. In such cases, “the environment
makes parallel demands on the system, but the
system can respond only serially” (Simon 1977,
157). That is, the system is grappling with a great
number of real, tangible, problems, but its lead-
cers can attend to them only one at a time. In such
situations, just how problems capture the atten-
tion of policymakers is critical. The intermittent
nature of high-level attention to a given prob-
em builds into our system of government the
possibilty not only of incrementalism, but also of
periodic punctuations to these temporary periods
of equilibrium.
Why have students of the policy process so
often ignored the nonineremental nature of the
allocation of attention to problems in political
systems? There are two reasons. First is the tra-
ditional division of labor among scholars. Those
Who have studied policy implementation typically
have not emphasized the dramatic changes that
often occur in the public agenda, and those who
focus on the agenda often discount the strong el-
cements of stability of incrementalism present in
other parts of the policy cycle. Second is « ten:
dency among some to view the disruptive acts of
agenda access as political penumbra, either sym-
bolic events designed to reassure the mass public
Edelman, 1964) oF as furious activity that fails to
solve problems (Downs 1972) Taking a broader
view of the policy process forces us to consider
seriously both the politics of negative feedback
and the processes of agendasetting that lead to
dramatic change. ...[Wle show that both of these
processes are at work simultaneously in American
politics, and that they interact to produce long
periods of relative stability or inerementalism in-
terrupted by short bursts of dramatic change. Far
from being penumbra, these bursts alter forever
the prevailing arrangements in a policy system.
Inthe pluralist model of countervailing forces
in the political system, “potential groups” mobilize
‘when their interests are threatened (Truman 1951,
30). In the absence of artificial oF legal barriers to
organization and lobbying, social and professional
‘groups can be expected to protect themselves, as
the invisible hand of action and reaction produces
4 sort of equilibrium in politics just as the invis-
ible hand of the marketplace does in economics
‘While few accept these notions of unfettered orga
nization these days, especially after Olson's (1965)
discussion of the inherent advantages of certain
kinds of groups over others in generating the
support needed to mobilize effectively, perceived.
threats do indeed produce increased mobilization
in many cases (see Hansen 1985).
‘The most significant ceitcisms of the pluralist
approach have focused on bias in the mobilization
of interests. AS E.
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