HOUSE OVERVIEW

By David Wasserman, July 25, 2014

Bottom Lines: Open Republican House Seats

It should be great news for House Democrats that a laundry list of moderate Republicans like Reps. Tom Latham
(IA-03), Mike Rogers (MI-08), Jon Runyan (NJ-03), Jim Gerlach (PA-06), Frank Wolf (VA-10), and Tom Petri
(WI-06) are retiring, leaving fairly marginal seats open. But given the beneficial national environment and midterm
turnout dynamic, not to mention recent redistricting, Republicans couldn't have picked a better year to "pass the
torch" in these seats.
Thus far, Republicans have done a good job of navigating primary season without nominating too many exotic or
fire-breathing candidates in districts where Democrats might have takeover opportunities. The GOP has notably
avoided "land mine" candidates in places like IA-03 (Brad Zaun), NJ-03 (Steve Lonegan), and VA-10 (Dick
Black), but there are still critical August primaries to be held in places like Michigan, Wisconsin, and Arizona.
At the moment, out of Republicans' 27 open seats, only one is in Lean Democratic (CA-31), only one is in Toss Up
(IA-03), and only six are in Lean Republican. Three more fall into the Likely Republican category, and 16 are in
Solid Republican. Overall, even though Republicans have far more open seats than Democrats (27 to 16), it
wouldn't be surprising if Republicans actually took over more open Democratic seats than vice versa.
AL-06: OPEN (Bachus) (R) - Central: Birmingham suburbs
Solid Republican. Former conservative think tank president Gary Palmer crushed state Rep. Paul DeMarco in the
July GOP runoff, ensuring he will win this seat in November. Palmer was aided by both a late Club for Growth
endorsement and a backfiring effort by DeMarco to tie Palmer to an unpopular tax ballot measure.
AR-02: OPEN (Griffin) (R) - Central: Little Rock
Lean Republican. Democrats are still upbeat about North Little Rock Mayor Pat Hays, but wealthy GOP banker
French Hill won his primary convincingly and will have all the money he needs to pick apart Hays's lengthy
mayoral record and tie him to an unpopular president. Hays may win Little Rock's Pulaski County, but the
suburban/rural majority of the district is likely to propel Hill to Congress.
AR-04: OPEN (Cotton) (R) - South and southwest: Pine Bluff, Hot Springs
Likely Republican. This southern Arkansas district has become very Republican, but Democratic former FEMA
director James Lee Witt is leveraging his Clinton contacts into big dollars. Meanwhile, GOP State House Majority
Leader Bruce Westerman emerged from a tough primary needing to replenish his coffers. It's still uphill for Witt,
but Republicans aren't taking this race for granted.
CA-25: OPEN (McKeon) (R) - Northern LA County: Santa Clarita, Palmdale
Solid Republican. In the June top-two primary, two Republicans won slots on the November ballot, shutting
Democrats completely out of a race that was only a long shot at best to begin with. Former state Sen. Tony
Strickland has raised $1.2 million so far to state Sen. Steve Knight's $186,000, but Strickland had to switch

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districts to run here and the Democrat, Lee Rogers, has endorsed Knight based on Strickland's carpetbagging.
Strickland may have a narrow edge, but it's far from over.
CA-31: OPEN (Miller) (R) - Inland Empire: San Bernardino, Rancho Cucamonga
Lean Democratic. Democrats are breathing a sigh of relief after their pick, Redlands Mayor Pete Aguilar, made it
onto the November ballot by just a handful of votes in the June primary. He's the favorite over GOP businessman
and anti-drug activist Paul Chabot, but this majority Latino district is culturally conservative and the race isn't a
total slam dunk. Democrats plan to use Chabot's Tea Party allegiances in a failed past state legislative race against
him.
CA-45: OPEN (Campbell) (R) - Inland Orange County: Irvine, Mission Viejo
Solid Republican. GOP investment banker and state Sen. Mimi Walters is headed to Congress after Democrat Drew
Leavens drew the second spot on the November ballot, edging out another Republican in the June primary. This
upscale district is safely Republican.
CO-04: OPEN (Gardner) (R) - Eastern Plains: Greeley, Douglas County
Solid Republican. Weld County District Attorney Ken Buck proved too conservative for the state in the 2010
Senate race, but that reputation was a serious asset in the June primary for this very Republican open seat, which he
won by 20 points against his nearest competitor. Buck is headed to the House.
GA-01: OPEN (Kingston) (R) - Southeast: Savannah, Brunswick
Solid Republican. Some operatives marvel that pragmatic state Sen. Buddy Carter was able to survive in a runoff
against Club for Growth-backed retired Army Ranger and surgeon Bob Johnson at a time when the GOP base
seems to be turning against legislators. But Carter ran as a pharmacist rather than a legislator, and effectively
portrayed himself as close to popular Rep. Jack Kingston. Carter will win this seat in a November romp.
GA-10: OPEN (Broun) (R) - East central: Athens, Milledgeville
Solid Republican. Baptist pastor and talk radio show host Jody Hice defeated trucking company owner Mike
Collins 54 percent to 46 percent in a highly competitive July runoff. Hice successfully positioned himself as Rep.
Paul Broun's ideological heir and will easily win this seat in November, although some Republicans worry his
provocative rhetoric, including comparing homosexuality to bestiality, may further damage the party's national
brand.
GA-11: OPEN (Gingrey) (R) - Atlanta suburbs: Marietta, Cherokee County
Solid Republican. State Sen. Barry Loudermilk annihilated former Rep. Bob Barr in the July runoff, 66 percent to
34 percent, but by the time of the initial primary the race was probably pretty much over. Loudermilk's impressive
showing in the first round showed social conservatives trusted him much more than Barr, who had taken on an odd
mix of positions during his Libertarian Party presidential run.
IA-03: OPEN (Latham) (R) - Southwest: Des Moines, Council Bluffs
Toss Up. Republican David Young, a former chief of staff to Sen. Chuck Grassley, won a tumultuous June GOP
convention on the fifth ballot, surprising just about everyone. Young isn't all that charismatic, but Republicans are
relieved state Sen. Brad Zaun, whose personal baggage sunk a 2010 congressional race, isn't the nominee.
At the moment, Democratic state Sen. Staci Appel (who was uncontested for her party's nod) has $726,000 in cash

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on hand to Young's $88,000, but Republican outside groups will certainly take on the task of defining Appel. This
district is about as politically even as they come, but given the year, Young may have a very tiny edge.
LA-06: OPEN (Cassidy) (R) - Central: Baton Rouge suburbs
Solid Republican. Democratic convicted felon and former Gov. Edwin Edwards currently appears likeliest to take
the top slot in the November all-party primary, but he would be crushed by any Republican in the December
runoff: President Obama didn't even take a third of the vote here in 2012. The only question is which of ten
announced Republicans will earn a second runoff slot.
Most private polling shows state Sen. Dan Claitor (backed by some in the Baton Rouge business community) and
young software businessman Paul Dietzel (the grandson of a legendary LSU football player who is courting Tea
Party groups) fighting second place, but former state "coastal czar" Garret Graves, who has backing from the Koch
brothers, has raised by far the most money ($814,000) and may be able to muscle his way into the top Republican
spot.
The newest wild card in the race is state Rep. Lenar Whitney, a dance studio owner from Houma who hopes to
rally the southern reaches of LA-06 (about 13 percent of the vote) and takes kindly to the moniker "Palin of the
South." In late June, Whitney posted a YouTube video entitled "GLOBAL WARMING IS A HOAX" in which she
claims "any 10 year old" can disprove the theory with a household thermometer. Shortly after being asked to
explain how she arrived at her views in a recent interview with the Cook Political Report , she cut the conversation
short.
One neutral Louisiana observer admits that while Whitney is just as much of a loose cannon and potential
embarrassment to the state as Edwards, her over-the-top brand of provocation could sell with some elements of the
party. Furthermore, her presence in the southern tentacle of the 6th CD could sap some votes from Graves, best
known for his coastal restoration efforts. Still, at this juncture, Graves looks best-positioned.
MI-04: OPEN (Camp) (R) - North central: Midland
Solid Republican. When Rep. Dave Camp announced his retirement, state Sen. John Moolenaar looked like Rep.
Dave Camp's logical heir. But the entire calculus of the race changed when Saginaw-based career training
businessman Paul Mitchell, former state GOP finance chair, loaned his campaign $1.9 million and began savaging
Moolenaar as a tax-raising career politician.
Moolenaar earned Camp's formal endorsement in late June, but at the moment Moolenaar's $453,000 raised is no
match for Mitchell's attacks on Moolenaar's vote for the infamous Michigan Business Tax during the Granholm
administration. According to a July EPIC-MRA poll, Mitchell now leads Moolenaar 50 percent to 27 percent. With
two weeks left, Moolenaar needs a miracle.
MI-08: OPEN (Rogers) (R) - Central: Lansing, Detroit exurbs
Lean Republican. The August GOP primary for this swing district looks like a classic clash between a Chamber of
Commerce-aligned pragmatist and a Tea Party rabble-rouser. Former state Senate Majority Leader Mike Bishop,
whom one insider described as the "Boehner of Michigan," is a favorite of the Detroit business community and has
been endorsed by popular outgoing Rep. Mike Rogers, but state Rep. Tom McMillin is running aggressively to his
right.
McMillin was one of now-Rep. Justin Amash's best friends in the Michigan House and is attacking Bishop for
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McMillin was one of now-Rep. Justin Amash's best friends in the Michigan House and is attacking Bishop for
voting for the infamous Michigan Business Tax during the Granholm years. However, he may not have the
financial resources to deny Bishop in the expensive Detroit market; the latest EPIC-MRA poll showed Bishop
leading 45 percent to 33 percent.
Democrats failed to recruit their top two choices to run here, and will nominate Ingham County Treasurer Eric
Schertzing. If Bishop wins the GOP nomination, don't look for Democrats to fully compete here. But if the furtherright McMillin pulls an August upset, it could be a different story.
MN-06: OPEN (Bachmann) (R) - Twin Cities north suburbs: Blaine, St. Cloud
Solid Republican. Now that Rep. Michele Bachmann is retiring, Republicans can breathe much easier about their
prospects of holding this seat. Former GOP gubernatorial nominee Tom Emmer easily won his party's endorsement
for this seat at convention and is the favorite over Anoka County Commissioner Rhonda Sivarajah, who has been
accusing Emmer of trying to push her out of the race.
MT-AL: OPEN (Daines) (R) - Entire State
Likely Republican. Democrats have a very hardworking nominee in former Sen. Max Baucus aide John Lewis, who
has already raised an impressive $1 million for the open seat contest. But Republican former Navy SEAL Ryan
Zinke ran an impressive primary campaign and would probably need to implode to give Lewis a chance at winning
this seat in a year like 2014.
NJ-03: OPEN (Runyan) (R) - South central: Burlington, Toms River
Lean Republican. Insurance businessman and former Randolph Mayor Tom MacArthur self-funded his way to the
GOP nomination in the June primary, handily beating New Jersey Tea Party hero Steve Lonegan and compelling
Republican strategists in DC breathe a big sigh of relief. Democratic Burlington County Freeholder Aimee Belgard
will try to portray MacArthur as out of touch, but she is a clear underdog.
NC-06: OPEN (Coble) (R) - North central: parts of Greensboro
Solid Republican. Baptist minister Mark Walker pulled off a mild upset in July, beating Rockingham County
prosecutor Phil Berger, Jr. in the GOP runoff even though Berger had run ahead in May. North Carolina observers
believe Walker's large congregation, as well as concerns about the Berger family's influence (Phil Berger, Sr. is
state senate president) combined to produce the outcome.
Now that the very socially conservative Walker has won the nomination, some North Carolina Democrats are
expressing more excitement about former UNC administrator Laura Fjeld's campaign. But Fjeld had just $123,000
on hand at the end of June, and this district is so heavily gerrymandered in the GOP's favor that only a total Walker
implosion could give Fjeld an opening.
OK-05: OPEN (Lankford) (R) - Central: Oklahoma City and suburbs
Solid Republican. When the dust settled from the June primary, former state Sen. Steve Russell (27 percent) and
Edmond Mayor Patrice Douglas (25 percent) emerged with tickets to the August 26 runoff. Douglas will likely
raise more money from Oklahoma City's corporate community, but Russell's profile as a gun shop owner and
Saddam Hussein-capturing Iraq veteran may resonate with more of the base.
PA-06: OPEN (Gerlach) (R) - Southeast: parts of Chester and Berks counties
Lean Republican. If Rep. Jim Gerlach had retired six years ago, Republicans would have had a nightmare trying to

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hold this suburban Philadelphia seat. But conveniently, Republicans redrew the 6th CD in 2012 to be five points
more Republican, and 2014 is a very favorable year. Chester County Commissioner Ryan Costello, who fits
Gerlach's pragmatic mold, is cruising over physician and three-time Democratic nominee Manan Trivedi.
TX-04: OPEN (Hall) (R) - Northeast corner: Texarkana, Sherman
Solid Republican. After dethroning 91 year old Rep. Ralph Hall in the May runoff, former U.S. Attorney John
Ratcliffe is well on his way to Congress. This seat is prohibitively Republican.
TX-36: OPEN (Stockman) (R) - Southeast: Orange, Pasadena
Solid Republican. On his third try, GOP dentist and former Woodville Mayor Brian Babin is headed to Congress.
Babin didn't spend as much money as Houston mortgage businessman Ben Streusand in the runoff, but won 58
percent to 42 percent. A small town mayor, Babin simply ran up huge margins in the district's rural counties, and
Babin's son, a decorated Navy SEAL, proved a valuable surrogate.
VA-07: OPEN (Cantor) (R) - Central: Richmond suburbs, Culpeper
Solid Republican. There are countless things Majority Leader Eric Cantor would have done differently in
hindsight, but there's no denying his over-the-top attacks on economics professor Dave Brat backfired. Given the
heavy GOP lean of the 7th CD (particularly after 2012 redistricting), Brat will easily defeat Democratic fellow
Randolph Macon College professor Jack Trammell in November.
VA-10: OPEN (Wolf) (R) - DC exurbs: McLean, Manassas, Winchester
Lean Republican. In Northern Virginia, Democrats badly want to introduce GOP Del. Barbara Comstock as an
unhinged right-wing operative who favored mandatory ultrasounds to obtain an abortion and voted against a
bipartisan transportation funding bill. But while Democratic Fairfax County Supervisor John Foust has raised an
impressive $1 million, it may not be enough in pricey DC.
The contours of the district and the cycle favor Comstock. Because Comstock and Foust share a McLean area base
in Fairfax County, they will likely split the county evenly. They may also split exurban Loudoun County. But it's
the Shenandoah Valley area around Winchester where Comstock is likely to run up the score. It's very competitive,
but Comstock is the favorite.
WA-04: OPEN (Hastings) (R) - Middle third: Yakima, Tri-Cities
Solid Republican. Thanks to Washington's top-two primary and the presence of two Democrats on the ballot, it's
possible two Republicans could advance from the August primary to the November general in this heavily GOP
Eastern Washington seat. The frontrunners for now are former state Agriculture Director Dan Newhouse and
former NFL player and failed Senate candidate Clint Didier, who couldn't be stylistically more different.
Newhouse, a hops farmer, has the endorsement of most local elected officials and the most money. Didier is a
favorite of the Tea Party crowd. But two other GOP candidates, attorney George Cicotte (with an LDS base) and
state Rep. Janea Holmquist can't be ignored. If Newhouse and Didier both make the November ballot, Newhouse
would be favored.
WV-02: OPEN (Capito) (R) - Central: Charleston, Eastern Panhandle
Lean Republican. The GOP's nominee, former Maryland Republican Chair Alex Mooney, may be one of the most
blatant carpetbaggers in history for moving across state lines to run here. But former West Virginia Democratic

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Chair Nick Casey, who will play up his accounting background and close ties to Sen. Joe Manchin, is still the
underdog thanks to his ringing endorsement of President Obama in 2008.
WI-06: OPEN (Petri) (R) - East central: Oshkosh, Fond du Lac
Likely Republican. With less than three weeks to go, the GOP primary may be a genuine toss up between three state
legislators with similar voting records but vastly different appeals: state Sens. Joe Leibham and Glenn Grothman,
and state Rep. Duey Stroebel. Democratic Winnebago County Executive Mark Harris is running, but he would
likely need Grothman to win the primary to have any sliver of hope.
Grothman, who has vocally criticized single parenthood, hasn't raised much money but hopes to tap into anger
within the GOP base. Leibham, a Sheboygan Chamber of Commerce favorite, has the most local endorsements and
exudes positive energy and enthusiasm on the campaign trail. Stroebel, a real estate businessman who has only
served in the legislature two years, started out far behind in private polling but his self-funding could close the gap.
Stroebel has spent heavily on ads railing against "career politicians," a subtle reference to Grothman and Leibham,
who have each served for over a decade. Geographically, Leibham hopes to run up the score in the Sheboygan and
Manitowoc areas while Grothman and Stroebel split the vote in Ozaukee County, just north of Milwaukee. It's
anyone's ballgame.
Cook Political Report interns Nick Fleder, Lynn Miao, and Caroline Hudson contributed to this report.

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