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Bloomberg Politics National Poll

SELZER & COMPANY


1,002 U.S. adults ages 18 and over
Margin of error: 3.1 percentage points

Study #2129
November 15-17, 2015
Weighted by age and race
Poll Questions

Percentages may not add to 100% due to rounding.


In general, do you think things in the nation are headed in the right direction, or have they gotten off on
the wrong track?

Nov-15
Sep-15
Apr-15
Dec-14
Jun-14
Mar-14
Dec-13
Sep-13
Jun-13
Feb-13
Dec-12
Sep-12
Jun-12
Mar-12
Sep-11
Jun-11
Mar-11
Dec-10
Oct-10
Jul-10
Mar-10
Dec-09
Sep-09

Right
direction

Wrong
track

23

69

24
31
24
26
30
27
25
32
37
38
33
31
31
20
26
28
27
32
31
34
32
40

66
61
65
64
62
67
68
60
54
55
60
62
61
72
66
63
66
62
63
58
59
52

10
8
11
10
8
6
7
8
9
7
7
7
8
8
8
9
7
6
6
8
9
8

Not sure

Health care

The federal deficit

Terrorism

Taxes

A decline in real
income for
American workers

The Islamic State,


also known as ISIS

Climate change

Unemployment and
jobs

Other (VOL)
(specify:)

None of these
(VOL)

Not sure

Nov-15
Sep-15
Apr-15
Dec-14

Immigration

Which of the following do you see as the most important issue facing the country right now? (Read list.
Rotate.)

10

14

14

21

11

7
6
11

11
12
14

10
10
9

7
9
4

4
4
3

14
12
15

11
13
7

6
7
5

20
18
21

3
2
4

1
2
1

6
5
6

[Note changes in answer options. Percentages given for reference, but not valid for direct comparison.]

The situation in the


Middle East

Gas prices

Gay marriage

The oil spill in the Gulf


of Mexico

Climate change

The war in Afghanistan

A decline in real income


for American workers

Other (VOL) (specify:)

None of these (VOL)

4
7
4
4
3
2
1
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a

4
2
3
3
1
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a

28
37
43
45
42
46
42
43
50
49
41

n/a
5
6
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a

n/a
n/a
7
4
11
n/a
4
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a

n/a
n/a
n/a
3
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a

n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
13

5
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a

n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
5
5
7
7
7
7

16
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a

3
3
4
2
4
2
2
4
1
1
1

1
1
1
1
1
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a

Not sure

Unemployment and jobs

29
25
24
26

n/a
11
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a

Terrorism

n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
18
17

Taxes

13
19
14
18
21
12
13

Entitlement spendin on
Social Security and
Medicare

17
9
11
13
10
10
10
12
9
12
9

Government spending

6
4
3
4
4
3
3
3
5
5
n/a

The federal deficit

Health care

Jun-14
Dec-12
Sep-12
Jun-12
Mar-12
Sept-11
Jun-11
Mar-11
Dec-10
Oct-10
Jul-10

Immigration

Which of the following do you see as the most important issue facing the country right now?
(Read list. Rotate.)

3
5
4
3
3
2
3
2
3
2
3

Do you approve or disapprove of the job Barack Obama is doing: [ITEM FROM LIST]?
(Begin with as president. Rotate all other options.)

As president

With the economy

Approve

Disapprove

Not Sure

Nov-15
Sep-15
Apr-15
Dec-14
Jun-14
Mar-14
Dec-13
Sep-13
Jun-13
Feb-13
Dec-12
Sep-12
Jun-12
Mar-12
Sep-11
Jun-11
Mar-11
Dec-10
Oct-10
Jul-10
Mar-10
Dec-09
Sep-09

44

51

46
47
39
43
48
42
45
49
55
53
49
53
48
45
49
51
47
48
52
50
54
56

47
46
52
53
48
55
49
46
40
44
46
44
47
49
44
43
48
45
44
45
41
37

7
7
9
4
4
3
6
5
5
3
5
3
5
6
7
6
5
7
4
5
5
7

Nov-15
Sep-15
Apr-15
Dec-14
Jun-14
Mar-14
Dec-13
Sep-13
Jun-13
Feb-13
Dec-12
Sep-12
Jun-12
Mar-12
Sep-11
Jun-11
Mar-11
Dec-10
Oct-10
Jul-10
Mar-10
Dec-09
Sep-09

44

51

47
49
42
38
43
38
38
42
47
48
41
43
41
33
39
43
41
44
44
44
45
50

48
46
53
57
53
58
56
53
49
48
53
53
56
62
57
52
54
51
52
51
50
45

5
5
5
5
4
4
6
5
4
4
6
4
3
5
4
5
5
5
4
5
5
5

With health care

With negotiating with the Republican


majority in the U.S. Congress

Approve

Disapprove

Nov-15
Sep-15
Apr-15
Dec-14
Jun-14
Mar-14
Dec-13
Sep-13
Jun-13
Jun-12
Mar-12
Sep-11
Jun-11
Mar-11
Dec-10
Oct-10
Jul-10
Mar-10
Dec-09
Sep-09

40

56

44
43
41
38
40
37
39
40
43
40
39
45
44
44
51
46
43
40
47

51
53
55
58
54
60
54
56
52
54
53
50
50
51
45
51
52
53
48

5
4
4
4
6
3
7
4
5
6
8
5
6
5
4
3
5
7
5

Nov-15
Sep-15
Apr-15

35

54

11

35
35

52
54

13
11

[Note change in question language. Percentages given for reference, but not valid for direct comparison.]
With negotiating with the Republican majority in the
Dec-14
32
56
U.S. House of Representatives
Jun-14
33
55
Mar-14
37
51
Dec-13
34
55
Sep-13
39
46
Jun-13
38
49
Feb-13
42
44
Dec-12
45
45
Mar-12
41
48
Sep-11
37
52

With relations with other countries

*Mar-12: n=746. Was not included until second night in field.

Sep-15
Feb-13
Dec-12
Sep-12
Mar-12*
Dec-10
Oct-10
Mar-10
Dec-09
Sep-09

Not Sure

12
12
12
11
15
13
14
10
11
11

44

50

52
54
45
54
56
54
58
59
60

35
39
47
40
37
36
35
35
32

13
7
8
6
7
10
7
6
8

Now, Im going to mention some people and groups in the news recently. [Previous wording: Now, I'd like to
mention some major economic and political figures and groups.] For each, please tell me if your feelings are very
favorable, mostly favorable, mostly unfavorable, or very unfavorable. If you dont know enough to
answer, just say so. (Record dont know as not sure. Rotate list.)
Net
Net
Very
Mostly
Mostly
Very
Favorable Unfavorable Favorable Favorable Unfavorable Unfavorable
George W. Bush,
former president of
the United States

Mitt Romney, former


candidate for
president of the
United States
Mitt Romney, former
governor of
Massachusetts and
Republican
candidate for
president in 2012
Mitt Romney,
Republican
candidate for
president and former
governor of
Massachusetts
Mitt Romney, former
governor of
Massachusetts
Paul Ryan, the new
speaker of the U.S.
House of
Representatives
Paul Ryan, the
Republican
candidate for vicepresident
Paul Ryan,
congressman from
Wisconsin and
chairman of the
House Budget
Committee
Donald Trump, a
businessman from
New York*
Donald Trump,
businessman and
television
personality

Not
Sure

Nov-15
Apr-15
Sep-12
Jun-12
Mar-12
Dec-10
Oct-10

45

50

12

33

24

26

46
46
44
45
39
39

46
49
51
50
57
55

15
17
14
14
12
9

31
29
30
31
27
30

24
19
24
22
28
26

22
30
27
28
29
29

8
5
5
5
4
6

Nov-15

32

50

24

30

20

17

Dec-14

43

44

15

28

24

20

13

Sep-12
Jun-12
Mar-12

43
39
42

50
48
48

19
13
11

24
26
31

19
25
26

31
23
22

7
13
10

Sep-11

42

38

10

32

23

15

20

Jun-11

37

31

29

20

11

32

Mar-10

31

26

24

16

10

43

Nov-15

40

30

11

29

15

15

30

Sep-12

41

41

20

21

17

24

18

Jun-11

23

26

15

16

10

51

Nov-15

34

61

11

23

21

40

Sep-15

31

61

10

20

20

41

Jun-12

33

55

25

26

29

12

Mar-11

37

43

10

27

24

19

20

Net
Net
Very
Mostly
Mostly
Very
Favorable Unfavorable Favorable Favorable Unfavorable Unfavorable

Not
Sure

The Republican
Party

Nov-15
Sep-15
Apr-15
Dec-14
Mar-14
Dec-13
Sep-13
Feb-13
Dec-12
Sep-12
Jun-12
Mar-12
Sep-11
Jun-11
Mar-11
Dec-10
Oct-10
Jul-10
Mar-10
Dec-09
Sep-09

36

54

29

32

22

10

33
38
45
37
37
34
35
38
41
41
44
37
42
41
43
42
42
39
42
38

54
53
47
54
53
56
55
51
49
50
49
53
47
47
48
46
46
48
47
52

8
11
11
8
10
8
7
10
14
13
14
9
12
11
10
11
9
7
9
8

25
27
34
29
27
26
28
28
27
28
30
28
30
30
33
31
33
32
33
30

31
31
28
30
32
30
30
28
25
26
28
27
31
27
29
27
28
28
30
31

23
22
19
24
21
26
25
23
24
24
21
26
16
20
19
19
18
20
17
21

13
9
8
9
10
10
10
11
10
9
7
10
11
12
9
12
12
13
11
10

The U.S. Congress

Nov-15
Sep-15
Apr-15

27

62

23

38

24

12

26
34

63
54

6
6

20
28

34
33

29
21

11
12

Nov-15

50

37

25

25

12

25

14

Planned Parenthood

*See below for results among only party members and leaners.

Among registered Republicans and Republican leaners; n=379. Margin of error: +/- 5.0 percentage points.
Net
Net
Very
Mostly
Mostly
Very
Favorable Unfavorable Favorable Favorable Unfavorable Unfavorable

Not
Sure

George W. Bush,
former president of
the United States

Nov-15

77

20

23

54

14

Mitt Romney, former


candidate for
president of the
United States

Nov-15

60

26

18

42

19

14

Paul Ryan, the new


speaker of the U.S.
House of
Representatives

Nov-15

64

12

21

43

24

Nov-15

55

42

21

35

22

20

Sep-15

51

40

19

32

21

19

Jeb Bush, former


governor of Florida

Nov-15
Sep-15

47

41

40

26

15

13

57

31

49

21

10

12

Ben Carson, retired


neurosurgeon

Nov-15
Sep-15

67

21

26

41

15

11

68

10

32

36

21

Chris Christie,
governor of New
Jersey

Nov-15

53

35

11

43

22

13

11

Sep-15

49

32

10

38

21

11

19

Ted Cruz, U.S.


senator from Texas

Nov-15
Sep-15

57

22

23

34

17

21

52

26

20

32

17

10

22

Carly Fiorina, former


CEO of HewlettPackard

Nov-15

54

26

13

40

18

20

Sep-15

57

17

20

37

11

26

Donald Trump, a
businessman from
New York

Net
Net
Very
Mostly
Mostly
Very
Favorable Unfavorable Favorable Favorable Unfavorable Unfavorable

Not
Sure

John Kasich,
governor of Ohio

Nov-15
Sep-15

29

34

25

23

11

37

34

17

26

14

49

Rand Paul, U.S.


senator from
Kentucky

Nov-15

38

39

29

25

14

23

Sep-15

36

42

28

29

12

23

Marco Rubio, U.S.


senator from Florida

Nov-15
Sep-15

67

17

22

45

12

16

60

14

22

38

11

26

Which one of the following Republicans would be your first choice for president? (Read list and rotate.)
And who would your second choice be? (If Uncommitted or Not sure in first choice question, code
second choice as No first choice and do not ask. Read list only if necessary.)
Among registered Republicans and leaners only; n=379. MoE:
5.0% pts.

Jeb Bush
Ben Carson
Chris Christie
Ted Cruz
Carly Fiorina
Lindsey Graham
Mike Huckabee
Bobby Jindal (dropped out, so first choice votes reallocated)
John Kasich
George Pataki
Rand Paul
Marco Rubio
Rick Santorum
Donald Trump
Uncommitted (VOLonly if respondent says the word
uncommitted.)
Not sure
No first choice

First
(with Jindal reallocated)

Second

6
20
4
9
3
1
3
3
1
3
12
1
24
5

8
17
5
10
6
1
3
1
3
2
14
1
10
1

6
11

Which one of the following Republicans would be your first choice for president? (Read list and rotate.)
And who would your second choice be? (If Uncommitted or Not sure in first choice question, code
second choice as No first choice and do not ask. Read list only if necessary.)
Among registered Republicans and leaners
only; n=379. MoE: 5.0% pts.

Jeb Bush
Ben Carson
Chris Christie
Ted Cruz
Carly Fiorina
Lindsey Graham
Mike Huckabee
Bobby Jindal (dropped out, so first choice
votes reallocated)

John Kasich
George Pataki
Rand Paul
Marco Rubio
Rick Santorum
Donald Trump
Uncommitted (VOLonly if
respondent says the word
uncommitted.)
Not sure
No first choice

First
Nov-15
Sep-15
Aug-15
Nov-15
Sep-15
Aug-15
Nov-15
Sep-15
Aug-15
Nov-15
Sep-15
Aug-15
Nov-15
Sep-15
Aug-15
Nov-15
Sep-15
Aug-15
Nov-15
Sep-15
Aug-15
Nov-15
Sep-15
Aug-15
Nov-15
Sep-15
Aug-15
Nov-15
Sep-15
Aug-15
Nov-15
Sep-15
Aug-15
Nov-15
Sep-15
Aug-15
Nov-15
Sep-15
Aug-15
Nov-15
Sep-15
Aug-15
Nov-15
Sep-15
Aug-15
Nov-15
Sep-15
Aug-15

Second

13
10

n/a
n/a

20

17

16
5

n/a
n/a

4
4

n/a
n/a

10

5
4

n/a
n/a

11
1

n/a
n/a

n/a
n/a

3
7

n/a
n/a

1
1

n/a
n/a

4
4

n/a
n/a

n/a
n/a

2
5

n/a
n/a

12

14

8
6

n/a
n/a

1
2

n/a
n/a

24

10

21
21

n/a
n/a

5
6

n/a
n/a

7
5
12
Nov-15
Sep-15
Aug-15

6
n/a
n/a

11
n/a
n/a

Im going to mention the candidates who are not your first or second choice. For each, please tell me if you
think you could ever support the person for president or would never support the person for president.
(Read appropriate names. Use same rotation as first choice question. If selected as first or second
choice, code as such and do not ask.)
Among registered Republicans and leaners only;
n=379. MoE: 5.0% pts.

Jeb Bush
Ben Carson
Chris Christie
Ted Cruz
Carly Fiorina
Lindsey Graham
Mike Huckabee
Bobby Jindal
John Kasich
George Pataki
Rand Paul
Marco Rubio
Rick Santorum
Donald Trump

Nov-15
Aug-15
Nov-15
Aug-15
Nov-15
Aug-15
Nov-15
Aug-15
Nov-15
Aug-15
Nov-15
Aug-15
Nov-15
Aug-15
Nov-15
Aug-15
Nov-15
Aug-15
Nov-15
Aug-15
Nov-15
Aug-15
Nov-15
Aug-15
Nov-15
Aug-15
Nov-15
Aug-15

Not sure

1st or 2nd
choice

Ever

Never

51

32

39

32

20

40

21

37

40

28

23

52

35

14

34

43

14

44

27

11

19

37

34

19

47

35

34

36

28

24

58

16

23

55

21

45

43

48

30

11

11

30

48

20

37

37

24

26

52

16

26

38

30

18

62

19

19

52

28

41

47

38

38

14

10

46

22

26

47

25

15

12

38

50

10

39

38

18

27

36

34

27

37

29

I have some questions comparing just [BEN CARSON] and [DONALD TRUMP]. Which one do you think:
Among registered Republicans and leaners only;
n=379. MoE: 5.0% pts.

Has the better temperament to be president


Would be better at dealing with Vladimir
Putin
Would work most effectively with Congress
Has the most appropriate life experience to
be president
Knows the most about how to get things
done
Cares the most about people like you
Has the right values to lead the nation
Would be better at managing the economy
Would do more to solve the illegal
immigration problem
Is the most honest and trustworthy
Can best combat Islamic terrorism

Carson

Trump

Both (VOL)

Not sure

68

25

38
62

52
30

1
2

9
6

32

50

14

20
65
61
24

73
23
26
72

2
2
5
1

6
10
7
3

26
61
29

66
25
55

1
3
2

7
11
14

I have some questions comparing just [TED CRUZ] and [MARCO RUBIO]. Which one do you think:
Among registered Republicans and leaners only; n=379.
MoE: 5.0% pts.

Has the better temperament to be president


Would be better at dealing with Vladimir Putin
Would work most effectively with Congress
Has the most appropriate life experience to be
president
Knows the most about how to get things done
Cares the most about people like you
Has the right values to lead the nation
Would be better at managing the economy
Would do more to solve the illegal immigration
problem
Can best combat Islamic terrorism

Cruz

Rubio

Both (VOL)

Not sure

28
33
29

47
39
46

4
3
3

20
25
21

36
35
30
31
36

35
36
41
41
36

6
6
6
8
4

23
22
23
20
24

44
36

35
33

2
5

19
26

For each of the following potential candidate concerns, please tell me if this is something that makes you
less supportive of the candidate or does not bother you. (Read list. Rotate.)
Among registered Republicans and leaners only; n=379. MoE: 5.0%
pts.

Marco Rubio has had questions raised about how he handled


his personal finances
Ted Cruz has had questions raised about his ability to get along
with his colleagues
Ben Carson has had questions raised about whether some of the
facts in his autobiography are true
Donald Trump has had questions raised about his ability to
wage a campaign without offending large groups of
Americans

Less
supportive

Does not
bother

Not
sure

40

57

30

65

27

71

33

66

Do you consider yourself more of an establishment or anti-establishment Republican? Among registered


Republicans and leaners only; n=379. MoE: 5.0% pts.

41
45
4
11

Establishment
Anti-establishment
Neither (VOL)
Not sure

Which ONE of the following factions of the Republican party describes you best as you think about which
candidate to support: (Rotate list.) Among registered Republicans and leaners only; n=379. MoE: 5.0% pts.
10
33
22
14
15
6

Tea party
Christian conservative
Mainstream Republican
Libertarian
National security conservative
Not sure

Questions on Islamic State, Islam, refugees, and terrorism based on interviews on Nov. 16-17; n=628.
Turning now to the conflict involving ISIS, the Islamic State. Do you think the U.S. should or should not
send American troops to Iraq or Syria to fight the Islamic State?
All
n=628
3.9% pts.

44
45
11

Reps
n=230
6.5% pts.

Dems
n=245
6.3% pts.

64
27
9

31
59
11

Should send
Should not send
Not sure

When it comes to the Islamic faith, which of the following is closer to your view? (Rotate options.)
All
n=628
3.9% pts.

Reps
n=230
6.5% pts.

Dems
n=245
6.3% pts.

28

32

17

64

61

76

Islam is an inherently violent religion, which leads its followers to


violent acts
Islam is an inherently peaceful religion, but there are some who twist
its teachings to justify violence
Not sure

Which of the following do you think is the best approach for the U.S. to take with refugees fleeing the civil
war in Syria? (Read list. Do not rotate.)
All
n=628
3.9% pts.

Reps
n=230
6.5% pts.

Dems
n=245
6.3% pts.

28

12

46

11
53
8

11
69
7

9
36
9

Proceed with the plan to resettle 10,000 refugees without religious


screening
Resettle only Christian refugees from Syria
Do not accept any Syrian refugees into the U.S.
Not sure

Given the history between the two nations, do you think it is a good idea or bad idea for the U.S. to enter
into a military coalition with Russia to combat Islamic terrorism?
All
n=628
3.9% pts.

Reps
n=230
6.5% pts.

Dems
n=245
6.3% pts.

53
35
12

59
31
10

50
40
10

Good idea
Bad idea
Not sure

Are you mostly confident or mostly not confident the U.S. has done enough to protect the homeland against
an attack similar to what happened in Paris?
All
n=628
3.9% pts.

Reps
n=230
6.5% pts.

Dems
n=245
6.3% pts.

48
46
6

32
63
6

62
34
4

Mostly confident
Mostly not confident
Not sure

Do you think the unemployment rate is higher or lower than when President Obama took office in 2009?
All
n=1,002
3.1% pts.

Reps
n=379
5.0% pts.

Dems
n=385
5.0% pts.

34
56
10

53
38
9

18
76
6

Higher
Lower
Not sure

President Obama halted the deportion of some immigrants living in the country illegally if they came here
before age 16, have been in the country for five years, have no criminal record, are in school or have a
high school diploma or have been honorably discharged from the military. Do you think this policy should
or should not continue?
All
n=1,002
3.1% pts.

Reps
n=379
5.0% pts.

Dems
n=385
5.0% pts.

63
30
7

50
43
7

77
18
5

Continue
Not continue
Not sure

Some candidates favor rounding up 11 million immigrants in the U.S. illegally and sending them to their
home country. Do you think this is the right way or the wrong way to address the situation?
All
n=1,002
3.1% pts.

Reps
n=379
5.0% pts.

Dems
n=385
5.0% pts.

27
63
10

37
54
9

17
73
9

Right way
Wrong way
Not sure

Compared to:
SELZER & COMPANY
1,001 general population age 18 and over
Margin of error: 3.1 percentage points

Study #2126
September 18-21, 2015
Weighted by age and race
Methodology

Nov 19 (Bloomberg) -- The Bloomberg Politics Poll, conducted November 15-17 for Bloomberg Politics by
Selzer & Co. of Des Moines, IA, is based on interviews with 1,002 U.S. adults ages 18 or older.
Interviewers with Quantel Research contacted households with randomly selected landline and cell phone telephone
numbers supplied by Survey Sampling International. Interviews were administered in English.
Percentages based on the full probability sample may have a maximum margin of error of plus or minus 3.1
percentage points. This means that if this survey were repeated using the same questions and the same methodology,
19 times out of 20, the findings would not vary from the percentages shown here by more than plus or minus 3.1
percentage points. Results based on smaller samples of respondentssuch as by gender or agehave a larger
margin of error. Responses were weighted by age and race to reflect the general population based on recent census
data.
For media inquiries, contact Vidhya Murugesan at vmurugesan@bloomberg.com.
For additional technical information about this study, contact Michelle Yeoman at myeoman@selzerco.com.
Republishing the copyrighted Bloomberg Politics Poll without credit to Bloomberg Politics is prohibited.