tst Prsss

sst
r

P s tt r r t tr t tr
t st t sst tr s t t 5th tr t t st
t sst Ps t t sss

rs t ts r

t rst sss t st t rtt srts

s r r tr tt tr r k r rs t r tr
r r s t (k + 2)th r
s st t s r t r s s rr t rqr
t t s t strt tt t strt
s rss qt ss tt s st strt rr t r

t t t t sss t rr r s t strt t
tt t exp ( ) t t t r s N (t) t rs rr t
t t s Psss strt tt


t n

exp t

P [N (t) = n] =
n!
r trst t to s tt t rt t (k + 2) s r r s rtr t r q
t p tt

P [N (to ) = n]

P [N (to ) = n]

n=k+2

k+1
X

n=0

f (to ) = 1

k+1
X

n=0

to n

exp to
n!

st t to stss qt s t t t t s f (to ) s strt t

rs t to t t t t to s t st t t qt
1

k+1
X

n=0

to n

exp to
n!

=p

Ps t tt qt s trst qt to s t r s
f (to ) s strt t rs t to t s t s r sr
tq strt t r to = 0 r to = 10 (k + 2) s s sr
t sr s

s t t r s

to = 10 (k + 2)

(k + 2)

s t r t t t

k+2

11
10.5
10
9.5
9

t (in hours)

8.5
8
7.5
7
6.5
6
5.5
5
4.5
4
3.5
3
0

r Pt k s to
r = 1 hour p = 0.9 k = 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 t t to s r sr Pt k s to s
s
t ss tt to s t rs t k s t s r t q t
r s t t rtr t

qst s r rts

ts strt t s t rt tt t rr r r rtr

r ts qst s t t t

P [N (to ) = n] = 1

k+1
X

n=0

n=k+2

to n

exp to
n!

r k = 0 = 1 hour to = 90 min = 1.5 hour t rqr rt s

1

1
X
1.5n exp (1.5)
= 1 (exp (1.5) + 1.5 exp (1.5)) = 1 2.5 exp (1.5) 0.44
n!
n=0

t s t rt tt st strt r r r rtr

k = 0 r r s t 2nd Prt tt s s t strt r r r

s q t t rt tt s s t s t 1st tr rs r trst
P [N (1.5) = 0] = exp (1.5) 0.22

t r rtr r t r t strt r t

s s t to t
3.89 hours

Prt

ts r r k = 0 t t t s

ttr s r strt t r s s rs strt

s strt s rt 0.44 strt s rt 0.9 s r s

rt r tt rr s r strt s t s s s rs r
strt tr s r t t

1.55
1.5
1.45

The Ratio

1.4
1.35
1.3
1.25
1.2
1.15
1.1
0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

r Pt k s t rt

to
(k+2)

s qst s tr rts

r r rtr p sr t r t rt r t t rtr t t t
r t r t rr r r s t r k rs t t rr s r

t t t s k + 2 s s (k + 2) t r t r s k t
to
to
tt t rs k s (k+2)
t to r rt s k s t sr tt
rt (k+2)
s
sr r r ts rt s r r p s k s r

r trst s qt r r s k

to n
X
exp to
exp to

=
1
n!
n!
n=0
n=k+2












to k+2
to k+3
to k+4
exp to
exp to
exp to

+
+
+
(k + 2)!
(k + 3)!
(k + 4)!
"
#
k+3 k+3
k+4 k+4
k+2 k+2
(k + 2)
x
(k + 2)
x
(k + 2)
x
+
+
+
exp ( (k + 2) x)
(k + 2)!
(k + 3)!
(k + 4)!
k+1
X

to n

p
where x =

to

(k + 2)

t ts t s t trs rt r r n
ln (n!) n ln (n) n

n! nn en

s ts rt qt s
exp ( (k + 2) x)
exp ( (k + 2) x)

"

xk+2
e(k+2)

"

(k + 2)

k+2

xk+2

(k + 2)

k+3

xk+3

(k + 2)

k+4

xk+4

+
+
+
(k+2) (k+2)
(k+3) (k+3)
(k+4) (k+4)
(k + 2)
e
(k + 3)
e
(k + 4)
e
#
k+2
k+3
k+4



xk+3
xk+4
0
1
2
+ (k+3) 1
+ (k+4) 1
+
1
k+2
k+3
k+4
e
e

s t t tt lim 1 na
n

n

= ea qt s s

=
p

exp ( (k + 2) x)

r r s k

1
k+2

xk+2

xk+3

e1 +
(k+3)

xk+4

e2 +
(k+4)

e(k+2)
e
e


exp ( (k + 2) x) k+2
x
1 + x + x2 +
exp ( (k + 2))

1
xe1x 1 + x + x2 + k+2

p k+2

0 p k+2 1 r trst s t qt
1

xe1x 1 + x + x2 +

1

k+2

=1

0 < x < 1 t s tr Prrss s qt s

xe1x
1
 k+2

1
1x

1
 k+2

=1

1
1 qt rs t xe1x = 1 st t
r r s k 1x
xe1x = 1 s x = 1 t r 0 < x < 1 x = 1 s t st sr tt t
qt s t rs t x r x > 1 s rtr t 1
x = 1 s t st tt s k s r x ts t 1 tr rs t t t
to s st q t t t t

trrt r s t t t tt rs r
s s s t r r t r t t t t r s s
ts trs t t t s t s s s r

t
s s s r rr s trs t

ss tt t q s t t M t t rrt t ln t q t stt stts

s s S = {0, 1, 2, . . . , M } s Prt rst tr t ts r
sttst rtrs rqr t ts r r

Prt strt rr pA
j

j=0

q s

j=0

r pA
j s t rt tt j rqst rr t t sr

pA
j = 1 Ps t ts rr s t t q t

Prt strt pLr (l)



r=0

r pLr (l) s t rt tt r rr rqst

t t q t q t s l t
t l

r=0

L
pL
r (l) = 1 ; l s pr (l) s t rs

D
Prt strt rtr pD
i (l) i=0 r pi (l) s t rt tt i rqst rt r
t q tr t Ps t t rrt q t s l t t r s
rt t rtr t l s s sst tt t rt strt pD
i s t l

l
P

i=0

D
pD
i (l) = 1 ; l t s s t r tt p0 (0) = 1

t Prt strt rr rt t Prt strt s

t q
pJk

(l) =


X
j=k

x = 1

s ts t r

0 < x < 1

pA
j


 

k L

jk
j
L
1 pjk (l)
pjk (l)
k

t t t s s

s st q t

r pJk (l) s t rt tt k s t q r qt t r s sr
s tt j rrs s rt pA
j t j k s t t q k s
t t s rt
ss s j

j
k



1 pL
jk (l)

k 

pL
jk (l)

jk

t s ts rt r

t sss t trst rt r q t ln t ln+1 r 0 ln+1

M 1 sr ss s t rt trst tr t t st ts s
tt k s s t t q i s rts r t q ss s k i
srt trst r q t ln t ln+1 s r t qt
k i = ln+1 ln ; i {0, 1, . . . , ln } ; k 0

rr r 0 ln+1 M 1 t rt t trst r ln t ln+1 s

X

p (ln , ln+1 ) =

J
pD
i (ln ) pk (ln )

ki=ln+1 ln ; i{0,1,...,ln } ; k0

r ln+1 ln qt ss t
ln+1

p (ln , ln+1 ) =

J
pD
k+ln ln+1 (ln ) pk (ln )

J
pD
i (ln ) pi+ln+1 ln (ln )

k=0

r ln+1 > ln qt ss t
p (ln , ln+1 ) =

ln
X
i=0

sr trst r ln t ln+1 r ln+1 = M t st tt rs

rt trst tr s s t 1 s ts rrt t t st t rt
trst tr s
p (ln , M ) = 1

M
1
X

p (ln , i)

i=0

t r t rt trst tr s t r t tr r
t trst tr s t rtrs qt

Ps t

s s s s t ts sr rqst s t
r t stt s s S = {0, 1, 2, . . . , M 1} q t ln r q t M s s s
r t s r s t ts sr rqst s t ln = M t ln+1 = M + 1
s t ss s t q t s M
rqr sttst rtrs r t Prt strt rr Prt strt
t t Prt strt rtr s ts s r sr
rqst s t rts Prt strt rr s s s
t rt strt rr t t rt strt s t q
s qt
s r rst t trst rt r q t ln t ln+1 r 0 ln+1 M 1 sr
tt tr s tst t q ln 1 t t 1 rt t k t q
t t k s sts
k 1 = ln+1 ln ; k 0

qt tr st st r k s ln+1 ln 1 r 0 ln+1 M 1 ln 1
t rt t trst r ln t ln+1 s
p (ln , ln+1 ) =

0
pJln+1 ln +1 (ln )

; ln+1 < ln 1
; ln+1 ln 1

 ln

= 0

t tr s t rt t t t

t q t t

s sts

0 ln+1 M 1

ln

=0

k = ln+1 ; k 0

p (0, ln+1 ) = pJln+1 (ln )

trst rt r t st

ln+1 = M

t s qt rt

trst tr s s

0
0
1

pJ0 (0)

pJ1 (0)

pJ2 (0)

pJ3 (0)

pJ0 (1)

pJ1 (1)

pJ2 (1)

pJ3 (1)

pJ0 (2)

pJ1 (2)

pJ2 (2)

pJ0 (3)

pJ1 (3)

2
3

M 1

pJ0 (M 1)

M 1
1
1
1
1

M
2
P

i=0
M
2
P
i=0
M
3
P

i=0
M
4
P

pJi (0)
pJi (1)
pJi (2)
pJi (3)

i=0

pJ0 (M

1)

t ss s r tr
ts qst t t r rs r rts
t r r

s t t

t t t r r rst

rr rss t s s s

tst r

k th

Pssst r

k th

ts rr t rrs t
th
t s t t t t k

ts rr t rrs t
th
t s t t t k

Ps t ts tr qst sr t tst r

r ts rt t qsts t sr t

r r t tr s rt

trt tt t t

trt t st
s t r sr t tst r r s r s
sst r t s ssts
t rr

t rrs

t ts t

t s

t s t t t

1
x2n x3n r xin s r s 1 t ith
t t stt t sst t X = xn
th
s t t n
0 s s t s t t sst sst tr r
rs

i
Rn

Mnij

ith

nth

trs

nth

Inij

1
rt p
s

ith

j th

t t
r Ps t r rs Mnij = Mnji

ith

rrs t

ts t t

j th

Rni = 1

t rt

trs

nth

Mnij = 1

t rt

trs

Inij = 1

r ts rt t
x1n+1 =

Mn12
Rn1

In12

tst t

x2n

Mn13

In13

x3n

; x1n = 0
; x1n = 1

qt
rst s s tt t 1st s t t t nth x1n = 0
J
J
12
12
x2n trs
t 1st
t J
tJ2nd r
In
Mn
J 12 J tt
J 13 t
J rss
1
12
2
13
13
3
In
xn = 1 Mn
In13 x3n = 1 t sr
t s r Mn
In
xn xn+1 = 1 Mn
st
th
1
1
t s r t 1 s t t n xn = 1 xn+1 = 0 t 1st rrs
Rn1 = 1 x1n+1 = 1 t 1st s t rr Rn1 = 0 s Prts qt
rt qt s s
x1n+1

Mn12

In12

x2n

Mn13

In13

x3n

K

x1n

Rn1

x1n

Mn21

In21

x1n

Mn23

In23

x3n

K

x2n

Rn2

x2n

x3n

r rt
x2n+1
x3n+1

Mn31

In31

x1n

Mn32

In32

x2n

K

x3n

Rn3

r r tr t N s rt t tst t s

Ps t

xin+1 =

qt

Mnij

j{1,2,...,N } ; j6=i

Ai = A1

A2

Inij

AN

xjn

xin

Rni

xin

tst t qt s t st r s Prt
ts qst
r sr t r ts rt t qst r strt t sr ts
qst s s s

sr r stt s t r t xn t stt s s S = {0, 1, 2, 3}

t rt trst tr P r t trst rt r xn t xn+1 t

r qt n = 1 P n1 r n 1 s t rt strt t r
t t nth t 1st rst

rs s t t 1st 1 = 0 1 0 0


n t t r r En t t nth

t r t t t r r t t nth s

0

 n1 1

En = 0 1 0 0 P
2
3

0
1

s En = n
2
3

P ts rr sr t t t tt r s N sr tt
t ith tr r y t s (N y) t s
rt tt k s t t (N y) t s t t t y t
s s

pI (y, k) =


N y
y k
y N yk
(1 (1 rp) ) ((1 rp) )
k

qt k {0, 1, 2, . . . , N y} qt s t rt sq t strt
y
(1 rp) s t rt tt t t t t y t
y
(1 (1 rp) ) s t rt tt t t tst t y t
rt tt t t y t s m s rr s
pR (y, m) =

qt k {0, 1, 2, . . . , y}

 
y m
m
q (1 q)
m

tt t t trst r xn t t xn+1 t r ts trst k

t t ts t m t t rr ss s k m
srt trst r xn t xn+1 s r t qt

k m = xn+1 xn ; k {0, 1, . . . , N y} ; m {0, 1, . . . , y}

rr t rt t trst r xn t xn+1 s
X

p (xn , xn+1 ) =

pI (y, k) pR (y, m)

km=xn+1 xn ; k{0,1,...,N y} ; m{0,1,...,y}

rt qt t r t P
tttrt
r r t s r tt s t t t s t s = rp
s qt
t t rt trst tr

(1 s)2 q

P =

2
(1 s) q 2

0
2
(1 s) (1 q)
+2s (1 s) q
2
2 (1
 s) q (1 q)

+ 1 (1 s)
2

3q (1 q)

q2

0
2s (1 s) (1 q)
+s2 q
2
2
 (1 s) (1
 q)

+2 1 (1 s)

3q (1 q)

q (1 q)

s2 (1 q)



2
2
1 (1 s) (1 q)

(1 q)

s qt t t r t t nth En (r, p, q) Ps t
tt r p s t t t r t s t rt s = rp ts t r
En (r, p, q) s qt t En (s, q) tr t t En (s, q) r s s q rtr
sr tt t r En (s, q) r rt n rt r t s s
ts r s

r Pt En (s, q) r rt s n
s tt tt r n En (s, q) s t rs t s t
rs t q r s r s t sr

r ts rt t qsts t sr t tt

r r t tr qst tt r s rt

trt r

t trt t tr r

ts qst t trt Pr ts n = 1 ts rs s trt t tr

rt tr rs t t ts s st s s t rs Prt t
r t t tt t r r Mnij s r t n Mnij = M ij r M ij ts
t n = 1 t tt M ij = M ji t r s
x1n+1

x2n+1

x3n+1




M 12

M 21
M 31

K
K

In12
In21
In31

K
K

x2n
x1n
x1n

M
M

M 13
M 23
M 32

K
K

In13
In23
In32

K
K

x3n
x3n
x2n

K

x1n + Rn1

K

x3n + Rn3

K

x2n + Rn2

r r rs t tst t rtt s

xin+1 =

M ij

j{1,2,...,N } ; j6=i

Inij

xjn

xin

Rni

x1n

x3n

x2n

xin

s ts r r st r strt s ts s t t r s t
sss Prt
r rs Prt s r t ss tt s t
stst t r Prt s t t t t t r r r
t tst t s Xn+1 = f (Xn , Zn ) r Xn s t stt Zn s t sr
r t s st tt t r rs Zn r t t rs Prt M ij s
s tr t rt tr t r M ij t stst t r s rt

x1n+1

x2n+1

x3n+1




Mn12
Mn21
Mn31

K
K

In12
In21
In31

K
K

x2n
x1n
x1n

M
M

Mn13
Mn23
Mn32

K
K

In13
In23
In32

K
K

x3n
x3n
x2n

K

x1n + Rn1

K

x3n + Rn3

K

x2n + Rn2

x1n

x3n

x2n

r
M1ij = M2ij = M3ij = Mnij = M ij i, j

ts s tt t r rs Mnij r t t r str t
strt s t rs Prt s t r r t rs Prt t
r t t tst t s t tt r s Xn+1 = f (Xn , Zn , Y )
r Y s stt r r tr t t ts sr s t rs M ij
stt t sst tt s t tst t
x1n+1

x2n+1

x3n+1

12
Mn+1
13
Mn+1

=
=

23
Mn+1

Mn12

Mn13

Mn12

Mn12
Mn13

K
K

In12
In21
In31

K
K

x2n
x1n
x1n

M
M

Mn13
Mn23
Mn23

K
K

In13
In23
In32

x3n

x2n

x3n

K

x1n + Rn1

K

x3n + Rn3

K

x2n + Rn2

x1n

x3n

x2n

Mn23

rr t sts sts
t rt t t s t t rtrs r t
rst t t st rst r p = 0.8 q = 0.5 r = 0.6 s s s
Individual 1
1

0
1

9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40

Day
Individual 2
1

0
1

9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40

Day
Individual 3
1

0
1

9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40

Day

r ss rt s r t t rtrs p = 0.8
q = 0.5 r = 0.6
t t t st rst r p = 0.5 q = 0.5 r = 0.5

Individual 1
1

0
1

9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40

Day
Individual 2
1

0
1

9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40

Day
Individual 3
1

0
1

9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40

Day

r ss rt s r t t rtrs p = 0.5
q = 0.5 r = 0.5
r t t st sr tt t rr rt rs t s t rt
tt t p rt t r rss s rt t t rt tt
t rss t s s tt t r t r s s t t sr
t t rs

t t r t r r tr
s st s rr r t s ts st r t r N = 15 s
p = 0.8 q = 0.5 r = 0.6 r s s
Individual 1

Individual 3

Individual 2

0
0

10

15

20

25

30

35

0
0

40

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Day
Individual 5

Day
Individual 4

0
5

10

15

20

25

Day
Individual 7

30

35

40

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Day
Individual 8

10

15

20

25

Day
Individual 10

30

35

40

10

15

20

25

30

35

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Day
Individual 13
1

10

15

20

Day

25

30

35

40

10

15

10

15

25

30

35

40

20

25

30

35

40

20

25

30

35

40

Day
Individual 9

Day
Individual 12
1

0
0

10

15

20

25

Day
Individual 14

30

35

40

40

20

Day
Individual 6

Day
Individual 11

15

10

0
0

10

15

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

20

25

30

35

40

Day
Individual 15

0
0

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Day

Day

r ss rt s r tr N = 15 r t
t rtrs p = 0.8 q = 0.5 r = 0.6

t rt t t s t t rtrs r t
rst t t st rst r p = 0.8 q = 0.5 r = 0.6 s s s

Individual 1
1

0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40

Day
Individual 2
1

0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40

Day
Individual 3
1

0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40

Day

q = 0.5

ss rt s r t t rtrs

p = 0.8

r = 0.6

t t t st rst r

p = 0.5 q = 0.5

r = 0.5

Individual 1
1

0
1

9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40

Day
Individual 2
1

0
1

9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40

Day
Individual 3
1

0
1

9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40

Day

q = 0.5

ss rt s r t t rtrs

p = 0.5

r = 0.5

r t t st sr tt t rr rt rs t s t rt
tt t

rt trt r

rss t trt t rt

tt t rss rr t s s tt t r t r s s t
t sr t t rs

t t r t r r tr
s st s rr r t s ts

p = 0.8 q = 0.5

r = 0.6

st r t r

r s s

N = 15

Individual 1

Individual 3

Individual 2

0
0

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

0
0

Day
Individual 4

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

0
5

10

15

20

Day
Individual 7

25

10

15

30

35

40

20

Day

25

30

35

40

25

30

35

40

30

35

40

30

35

40

30

35

40

Individual 6

Day
Individual 5
1

0
0

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

10

15

20

Day
Individual 9

Day
Individual 8

0
0

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Day

0
0

10

15

20

25

30

35

0
5

10

15

20

Day

25

30

35

40

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Day
Individual 14

15

20

25

30

35

40

20

25

Day
Individual 12

10

15

20

25

Day

Day

Individual 15

0
10

15

10

Individual 13

40

Day
Individual 11

Individual 10

10

15

20

Day

25

30

35

40

10

15

20

25

Day

r ss rt s r tr N = 15 r t
t rtrs p = 0.8 q = 0.5 r = 0.6
t En (r, p, q) t t t t s EnI (r, p, q) rrst t t
t t s t rrs

En (r, p, q) EnI (r, p, q) 0 s s s tt r n t t t

t ssr t t t t s s s s t t
s r r t t t ss t t t tr r
t r

r En (r, p, q) EnI (r, p, q) rs t n s s s s s ss r t

rt rs En (r, p, q) EnI (r, p, q) t rst t n rs t rs q s s s

t rs q t s r t t tr rs t rt t
str t s t r En (r, p, q) EnI (r, p, q)

rt rs En (r, p, q) EnI (r, p, q) t rst t n rs t rs p r s s

s t rs p r r t t r ts rr t
t r t r EnI (r, p, q) str

s s t tst t t s t t t tt t t stst
t r s
x1n+1

x2n+1

x3n+1




Mn12
Mn21
Mn31

K
K

In12
In21
In31

K
K

x2n
x1n
x1n

M
M

Mn13
Mn23
Mn32

K
K

In13
In23
In32

K
K

x3n
x3n
x2n

K

x1n + Rn1

K

x3n + Rn3

K

x2n + Rn2

x1n

x3n

x2n

sr t t tr r stt r ts tt s t
r t t sr rt t t s r t
r t In1 t t t stts 1st In1 = 1 t 1st s t t
nth trs In1 = 0 t stst t r r In1 s
1
In+1
= In1

M

x1n

Rn1

 s stts tt t t t t t r s t t
t t t rrs t t r r

x1n+1 =



Mn12

In12

x2n

Mn13

x1n
In13

x3n

K

x1n + Rn1

x1n

K

In1

stts tt t t t t s t t rr r r
s

xin+1
i
In+1

Ini

Mnij

j{1,2,...,N } ; j6=i

M

xin

Rni

Inij

; i

xjn

xin

Rni

xin

Ini

; i

Appendix 4:16
A (Inverse
Poisson Upper CDF Solver: MATLAB Code)
10/6/15
PM C:\Us...\Inverse_Poisson_UpperCDF_Solver.m
function [to] = Inverse_Poisson_UpperCDF_Solver(tau,k,p)
T_lb=0;
T_ub=10*(k+2)*tau;
threshold=0.001;

% Initial Lower Bound

% Initial Upper Bound
% Threshold for error in p

flag=1;
while flag==1
mid=(T_lb+T_ub)/2;
val=PoissonUpperCDF(tau,k,mid);
if (abs(val-p)<=threshold)
flag=0;
elseif (val<p)
T_lb=mid;
else
T_ub=mid;
end
end
to=mid;
end
function [val] = PoissonUpperCDF(tau,k,t)
val=1;
for n=0:1:(k+1)
val=val-(t/tau)^(n)*exp(-t/tau)/factorial(n);
end
end

1 of 1

10/7/15
1:10
C:\Users\sahah_000...\disease_expectancy.m
Appendix
B PM
(Disease
Expectancy: MATLAB Code)
function [] = disease_expectancy(n)
for t=1:1:n
i=1;
for s=0:0.05:1
j=1;
for q=0:0.05:1
P=ProbTransMatrix(s,q);
E(j,i)=[0 1 0 0]*(P^(t-1))*[0;1;2;3];
j=j+1;
end
i=i+1;
end
S=0:0.05:1;
Q=0:0.05:1;
surf(S,Q,E);
grid on
xlabel('s');
ylabel('q');
zlabel('E');
str=sprintf('Day %d',t);
title(str);
pause()
end
end
function [P]=ProbTransMatrix(s,q)
R1=[1 0 0 0];
R2=[((1-s)^2)*q 0 0 (s^2)*(1-q)];
R3=[((1-s)^2)*q^2 0 0 ((1-q)^2)*(1-(1-s)^2)];
R4=[q^3 3*(q^2)*(1-q) 3*q*(1-q)^2 (1-q)^3];
P=[R1;R2;R3;R4];
P(2,2)=((1-s)^2)*(1-q)+2*q*s*(1-s);
P(2,3)=2*(1-q)*s*(1-s)+(s^2)*q;
P(3,2)=2*q*(1-q)*(1-s)^2+(1-(1-s)^2)*q^2;
P(3,3)=((1-s)^2)*((1-q)^2)+2*q*(1-q)*(1-(1-s)^2);
end

1 of 1

10/7/15
AM C:\Users\sahah_000\Deskto...\disease_sim.m
Appendix 5:10
C (Infection
Dynamics Simulator: MATLAB Code)
clear
clc
% Model Parameters: START
N=3;
%
p=0.8;
%
q=0.5;
%
r=0.6;
%
scenario=2;

Number of People
Probability of getting infected
Probability of getting cured
Probability of Meeting/Probability of being an Interating Pair
% scenario=1 ==> Static Meeting Model (Interacting Pair Scenario)
% scenario=2 ==> Dynamic Meeting Model

% Model Parameters: END

% Miscellaneous Parameters: START
Tsim=40;
output=1;

% Simulation Time (in Days)

%

% Miscellaneous Parameters: END

% Initial State: START
X=zeros(N,1);
temp=rand;
index=max(ceil(temp*N),1);
X(index)=1;
% Initial State: END
% Simulation: START
Xarr=zeros(N,Tsim);
Xarr(:,1)=X;
for t=2:1:Tsim
% Generating a Random NOT-Recovery Vector: START
Rc=min(floor(rand(N,1)/q),1);
% Generating a Random NOT-Recovery Vector: END
% Generating a Random Infection Spread Matrix: START
I=min(floor(rand(N,N)/(1-p)),1);
for i=1:1:N
I(i,i)=0;
end
% Generating a Random Infection Spread Matrix: END

1 of 2

10/7/15 5:10 AM

C:\Users\sahah_000\Deskto...\disease_sim.m

% Generating a Random Meeting Matrix: START

if (scenario==2 || (scenario==1 && t==2))
M=min(floor(rand(N,N)/(1-r)),1);
for i=1:1:N
for j=1:1:i
if (i==j)
M(i,j)=0;
else
M(i,j)=M(j,i);
end
end
end
end
% Generating a Random Meeting Matrix: END
% Generating the next state: START
X=((M.*I)*X).*abs(X-1)+Rc.*X;

% Stochastic Update Rule

for i=1:1:N
if (X(i)~=0)
X(i)=1;
end
end
Xarr(:,t)=X;
% Generating the next state: END
end
% Simulation: END
figure
This line will change dependent on the number of individuals.
for i=1:1:N
subplot(3,1,i)
stairs(Xarr(i,:), 'LineWidth',1);
set(gca, 'XTick',0:1:Tsim)
set(gca, 'YTick', 0:1)
str=sprintf('Individual %d',i);
title(str);
xlabel('Day');
end

2 of 2