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METODO DE MINIMOS CUADRADOS

SEGN METODO ARITMETICO

Y =a+bX

a+b

[ ] [ ]
X

=0

[ ] [ ] [ ]
X
n

+b

X2
n

XY
=0
n

Reemplazando:

a+b 620.66613.064=0

a 620.666+b 3887388000=0
a=47.425

b=0.0003218
SEGN METODO GEOMETRICO

Y =a ebX

A+B

[ ] [ ]

A+B

[ ][

X2
X

a=10
b=

LogY
=0
n

XLogY
X

=0

B
log e

Reemplazando:

A + B 620.6661.0939=0
A + B 626.3231.0884=0

A=1.8248
B=0.000006923
A

a=10 =66.795
b=

AOS
DESPU
S DEL
ULTIM
O
CENSO

B
=0.00001594
log e

POBLACION
ARITMETI
CO

GEOMETRI
CO

CRECIMIENTO POR
DECADA %
ARITMETI
CO

GEOMETRI
CO

INCREMENTO POR
DECADA
ARITMETI
CO

GEOMETRI
CO

0
10
20

782
845
956

782
896
968

8.80
5.40

POBL 2024 = 845 HAB (ART)

POBL 2024 = 896 HAB (GEO)
POBL 2034 = 956 HAB (ART)
POBL 2034 = 968 HAB (GEO)

METODO DE INCREMENTOS VARIABLES

Pz =Pn +m P 1+

m(m1)( P 2)
2

9.86
8.16

10.560
7.050

11.832
10.654

 P 1=

P nP1 782542
=
=13.333
Z1
41

P 2=

DP =

m=

Z2

4
=2.000
42

20342007
=7.54
7.58

Pn=782

Reemplazando en la primera frmula:

Pz =782+7.54(13.333)+
P2034 =945.325 HAB

7.54(7.541)(2.000)
2