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RESEARCH@ARTCAPITAL.UA
+38 (044) 490-51-85

DJIA
S&P 500
Stoxx-50
FTSE
Nikkei
MSCI EM
SHComp
RTS
WIG
Prague
WIGUkr
PFTS
UX

DTD
0.2
0.2
0.2
-0.3
0.1
-1.2
0.3
-0.1
0.2
0.6
-2.7
0.2
1.6

MTD
0.5
0.1
0.2
-1.3
3.2
-1.7
7.9
1.0
-1.5
1.4
-0.3
-3.0
-5.1

YTD
-0.4
1.1
8.9
-4.4
12.8
-12.9
12.8
8.0
-3.7
5.3
65.0
-31.8
-27.2

P/E'15
16.1
17.6
14.9
15.6
18.8
12.2
15.6
6.2
13.4
13.4
8.8
n/a
n/a

UX
6

. ..

1050

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1000

11 2015

UX
.
,
, - . Stoxx
600 0,1%. S&P 500 0,15%.
. UX
1,57% BAVL (+3,3%) CEEN (+1,55%).
,
2009.


27 915

950

900

850

800

750

0
6-AUG

700
2-OCT

4-SEP

2-NOV

UX

ALMK
AVDK
AZST
BAVL
CEEN
ENMZ
DOEN
MSICH
UNAF
KVBZ

0.01
1.06
0.51
0.08
5.17
15.9
16.55
2010
206.9
8.88

DTD MTD YTD


5.2
4.2 -41.2
-1.3 -0.2 -57.0
0.4 -12.5 -51.9
3.3 -4.0 -45.3
1.6 -3.5 -52.0
0.1 -1.5 -46.8
1.6 -6.5 -64.9
1.4
1.1 -43.3
1.4 -1.0 -28.8
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$ (..)

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3.3%

35

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AZST

CEEN

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WWW.ARTCAPITAL.UA

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0.9
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
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%
25.0%
19.0%

20.0%
15.0%

12.1%

10.0%
0.0%

5.0%

0.8%

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0.0%

0.0%
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KER PW FXPO LN AST PW MHPC LI MLK PW

JKX LN

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+380 44 490 92 46
st@artcapital.ua

11.11.2015




39

UAH/

38

UAH/$, ()

34

33

29

28

24

23

19

18

14

13


70
60

KIEV1m Index

KIEVON Index



.
,
.
,
,
.
, ,
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$3 ,
.

50
40
30
20
10
0

2012

2013

2014

2015

(L.Sweet)
EUR/USD

DTD,% MTD,% YTD,%


1090
-0.24
-4.60
-8.04
44
0.78
-5.11
-25.6
1.07
-0.48
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WWW.ARTCAPITAL.UA

11.11.2015

[AST PW]

27 915
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315. 915 30% 4,79 ,
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1,669
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/
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28.4

36.6
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915
4,792
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649
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4,901

914
3,690
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3,517

/
30%
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13.7
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11.0

20.6
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11.11.2015

UNAF

UTLM

MTBD

STIR

BAVL

USCB

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CEEN

DNEN

DOEN

KREN

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.,
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14
2.1
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1.4%
/
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68.5
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144.6
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8
8.0
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0.8
1 163
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0.08
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0.02
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1.8
77.3
5.5
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17.2
26.1
0.5

4.1
464
18.1
1.0
50.6
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13
1.1
3
0.0
0.1
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47
0.06
4
1.2
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0.1
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0.5
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16
0.07

35
0
0
0.0

0.4%
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/

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-55%
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0.2
0.00
4.1
0.02

0.4
0.01
14.1
0.13

3
0
2
1.8

98
394
2
336

0.2
0.2

/
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0.0
0.1

0.3
0.2

0.0
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24.0

7.0
/
4.0
0.25
0.55

0.5
/
17.6
/
/

/
/
/
/
/

-13%
/
-20%
-4%
29%

-37%
/
-67%
-63%
-13%

-37%
/
-68%
-61%
-60%

1.2
/
0.8
0.0
0.1

4.2
/
6.2
0.2
0.5

0.1
/
1
0.1
0.8

0.2
/
3
9
32.7

1.1
0.03
0.2

1
0.1
0

-1.3%
-10.5%
27.5%

-11%
-14%
-30%

-57%
-47%
-55%

-70%
-69%
-70%

0.3
0.00
0.0

1.3
0.03
0.2

1
0.0
1

19
4
132

/
8.9
0.6
0.09
0.01
2 010
0.0
4.0
0.1

/
3.0
0.3
/
0.1
20
/
1.7
0.1

/
-0.7%
/
/
2.1%
1.4%
/
33.3%
/

/
-12%
-34%
-5%
5%
-11%
-4%
-23%
-37%

/
-52%
-64%
-48%
-66%
-43%
-72%
-44%
-77%

/
-56%
-71%
-57%
-82%
-41%
-70%
-51%
-90%

/
2.8
0.2
0.02
0.00
665
0.0
0.6
0.0

/
7.3
0.7
0.07
0.02
1 332
0.1
3.5
0.4

/
1
0.1
0.1
0.3
18
0.0
0.09
0

/
2.9
3
34
679
0.2
8.9
0.59
8

11.11.2015

.
(3)

( USD)

.,
$000

..

12

12M

12M

000 $

000
.

AGT PW
AST PW
AVGR LI
FXPO LN
CLE PW
IMC PW
JKX LN
KER PW
KSG PW
MHPC LI
MLK PW
OVO PW
RPT LN
SGR PW
WES PW

Agroton
Astarta
Avangard
Ferrexpo
Coal Energy
IMC
JKX Oil&Gas
Kernel Holding
KSG
MHP
Milkiland
Ovostar
Regal Petroleum
Sadovaya Group
Westa

PLN 1.2
PLN 35.6
$ 1.4
GBp 34
PLN 0.7
PLN 6.5
GBp 29
PLN 52.0
PLN 1.0
$ 9.4
PLN 2.2
PLN 88
GBp 3.8
#N/A N/A
#N/A N/A

6.7
252.2
13
446
3.8
3.0
16
787
7
246
142.5
9.30
/
/
/

0.8%
-7.5%
19.0%
0.8%
-3.0%
-2.8%
0.0%
0.0%
-2.0%
-1.2%
12.1%
0.6%
-11.8%
/
/

1%
21%
58%
-16%
-8%
-4%
12%
-1%
-15%
4%
53%
3%
-3%
/
/

-2%
78%
-31%
-37%
5%
15%
138%
83%
-11%
2%
50%
22%
20%
-62%
-53%

-20%
83%
-77%
-57%
-10%
-4%
-27%
125%
-16%
-12%
-15%
21%
-40%
-62%
-71%

0.9
14.3
0.2
29.5
0.6
4.3
11.0
22.9
0.6
8.2
0.8
66.6
2.75
0.2
0.1

1.6
39.1
6.2
83.0
0.8
7.2
39.3
55.5
1.4
12.1
3.7
91.8
6.50
0.6
0.3

15
59
18
550
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345
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15
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45
7
40
830
9
2.3
365
144
39
38
105.9
0.7
33
/
/

WWW.ARTCAPITAL.UA

11.11.2015

,
500
600
1 000
1 250
700
2 600
1 500
1 500
2 250
1 250

USD
EUR
USD
USD
USD
USD
USD
USD
USD
USD

,
%
6.88
4.95
6.58
6.25
6.75
9.25
7.75
7.95
7.80
7.50

23.09.2015
13.10.2015
21.11.2016
17.06.2016
14.11.2017
24.07.2017
23.09.2020
23.02.2021
28.11.2022
17.04.2023

1
1
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6

Caa1/B-/-18
800

-/-/-19
100
WR/-/-18
52
WR/-/-19
88
WR/-/-18
208
Ca/-/CCC
-22
750
Ca/-/C
-23
125
Ca/-/CCC
-25
600
WR/-/-15
200
Cu/-/-16
150
Cau/-/CC
-18
175
-/-/-23
0
-/-/CCC
-25
0

Caa3/CCC/CCC
/*Ferrexpo-19
161
Ca/-/C
-18 (7.9)
750
-/-/C
-18 (10.4)
160
-/B-/CCC
-20
750
-/-/-16
72
-/-/-18
400
Caa3/-/-16
85
-/-/C
-17
290
Caa3/-/C
-18
750
-/CC/C
-18
500
-/-/C
Interpipe-17
200
-/-/-15
206
-/-/-19
18
-/CC/-18
500

WR/-/-15
250
Ca/CC/C
-16
300

* Moody's/S&P/Fitch

USD

8.95

26.01.2018

USD
USD
USD
USD
USD
USD
USD
USD
USD
USD
USD
USD

9.25
8.25
10.90
11.00
9.63
7.51
9.75
10.25
5.80
10.88
9.38
9.63

25.01.2019
31.07.2018
14.06.2019
31.12.2018
27.04.2022
09.02.2023
22.01.2025
15.01.2016
09.02.2016
28.02.2018
10.03.2023
20.03.2025

*
WR/-/WR/D/Ca/D/C
Ca/D/C
Ca/D/C
Ca/D/C
Ca/D/C
Ca/D/C
Ca/D/C
Ca/D/C

-15
-15,
-16
-16
-17
-17
-20
-21
-22
-23

WWW.ARTCAPITAL.UA

Bid Px
82.00
82.00
79.00
79.00
79.00
79.00
80.00
79.50
79.00
79.00
103.0
6

Ask Px
83.50
84.00
80.00
80.00
80.00
80.00
81.00
80.50
80.00
80.00
104.48

6
1
6
1
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6

7.00
6.00
2.00
67.00
94.00
73.00
92.50
67.50
61.00
61.00
92.00
89.50

12.00
11.00
6.00
70.00
95.00
75.00
93.50
69.50
63.00
63.00
93.00
90.50

USD
USD
USD
USD
USD
USD
USD
USD
USD
USD
USD
USD
USD
USD

10.38
7.88
10.38
8.25
10.95
9.45
10.25
10.50
8.75
9.50
10.25
10.00
6.00
10.88

07.04.2019
04.04.2018
28.03.2018
02.04.2020
30.03.2016
19.04.2018
31.01.2016
28.11.2017
14.02.2018
21.05.2018
02.08.2017
29.10.2018
14.07.2019
26.03.2018

6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6

66.00
49.00
53.00
89.50
16.00
16.00
68.81
64.00
62.00
79.00
32.00
43.00
10.00
44.00

71.00
52.00
56.00
90.50
18.00
18.00
71.60
67.00
65.00
82.00
35.00
48.00
13.00
47.00

USD
USD

8.00
9.38

06.11.2015
11.07.2016

6
6

74.67
74.01

78.57
76.99

Bid
YTM, %
8.38
6.04
37.04
58.47
22.52
27.71
13.84
14.06
13.28
11.95

Ask
YTM, %
8.23
5.89
35.50
55.66
21.75
26.78
13.51
13.74
13.01
11.71

Duratio
n
12.54
17.77
0.96
0.58
1.81
1.54
3.99
4.19
5.05
5.56

7.41
13.84
156.74
1892.54
425.31
26.92
10.94
13.55
11.07
288.67
270.43
37.68
10.99
11.48

6.72
13.51
113.39
751.28
175.23
25.11
10.72
13.02
10.88
264.15
249.07
35.80
10.78
11.29
32.30

2.00
3.99
2.11
0.30
0.84
1.74
3.56
0.24
4.59
0.17
0.24
1.96
3.42
4.28
30.46

26.02
44.75
44.33
11.35
1379.56
113.16
302.13
37.16
34.24
20.58
110.02
44.23
118.58
56.44
44.54
10.71
71.86

23.14
41.38
41.11
11.04
1197.08
104.66
257.95
34.24
31.56
18.78
100.38
39.43
98.00
52.32
41.25
10.18
63.50

2.43
2.11
2.03
3.68
0.38
2.14
0.20
1.04
1.98
2.15
1.42
2.77
1.98
1.98
2.01
10.08
0.63

41.29

36.84

5.36

1.85

11.11.2015


, %


P/E
15

17.59
S&P 500

14.86
STOXX-50
New Eur Blue Chip

13.02

18.81
Nikkei
FTSE
15.59
DAX

13.23
15.22

MSCI EM
12.15
15.63
SHComp

MICEX

6.27

6.18
RTS
Bovespa

12.60
13.38
WIG

13.39
Prague

12.60
UX
#N/A N/A
.
#!
.
#!

16
16.14
14.10
11.73
17.16
14.58
12.96
14.34
10.81
14.00
5.77
5.70
10.06
12.20
13.33
10.81
na
na
na

P/S
15
1.84
1.07
0.92
0.97
1.21
0.80
1.02
1.05
1.40
0.75
0.74
0.87
0.84
0.97
0.87
0.11
864%
722%

16
1.75
1.05
0.93
0.94
1.17
0.79
0.99
0.97
1.29
0.71
0.69
0.79
0.82
0.92
0.82
na
na
na

FX -
102
100
98
96
94
92
90
88
86
84
82
80
78
5-Aug

1.20
1.15
1.10

Dollar Index

EUR Curncy

1.05
1.00

5-Sep

WWW.ARTCAPITAL.UA

5-Oct

5-Nov

11.11.2015



, % /
, % /
, $.
, .
, % /
. . (), % /
, % /
, , %

, % /.
, % /.

, $.
, %
, $.
, %

, %
, %
, $.
, $.

./$ , ..

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

7.6
17.2
142.7
720.7
7.6
-6.5
28.8
6.9

2.3
13.1
179.9
948
-5.2
17.1
18.6
6.9

-14.8
-14.9
117.2
913
-21.9
-1.8
-16.6
9.6

4.1
7.1
135.9
1079.3
11.2
-1.5
7.6
8.8

5.5
15.7
163.1
1300.0
8.0
19.9
14.7
8.6

0.2
8.4
175.8
1404.7
-0.5
-4.5
15.9
8.1

0.0
6.9
183.4
1465.2
-4.7
13.7
9.5
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-6.8
-9.6
131.8
1 566.7

16.6
12.8

22.3
25.2

12.3
15.9

9.1
9.4

4.6
8.0

-0.2
0.6

0.5
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-5.3
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9.2
6.4%

-12.8
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9.9
5.5%

-1.7
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4.7
4.0%

-3.0
-2.2
5.8
4.3%

-9.0
-6.3
7.0
4.2%

-14.3
-8.1
6.6
3.8%

-16.1
-8.9
3.3
1.8%

-1.1
12.3
17.6
32.5

-1.5
13.7
24.6
31.5

-4.1
34
39.8
26.5

-6
40.2
54.3
34.6

-1.4
36.2
59.2
31.2

-3.6
36.7
64.6
24.5

-4.5
40.5
73.1
20.4

5.05

7.7

7.99

7.96

7.99

7.99

7.99

15.62

: , , ,

:

05-07
07-11
12-14
14-15
15
15-17
20-29
23-30
25-30
25-28

WWW.ARTCAPITAL.UA

( )
( )
( )
( )
( )
( )
( )
( )
( )
( )

11.11.2015



Spread to Bund 10Y, pp

2.4

160

10Y Gov bonds , %

11

2.2

10

2.0

100

1.8

80

1.6

1.4

140
120

France
Italy
Spain

60
40

1.2

20
0
12.8.15

1.9.15

21.9.15 11.10.15 31.10.15

1.0
12.8.15

5
Italy

Spain

1.9.15

Greece (RHS)

2.5
2.0

10Y Gov bonds Prime/High Grade, %


German
France

US
UK

1.5
1.0
0.5

21.9.15 11.10.15 31.10.15

0.0
13.8.15

2.9.15

22.9.15

12.10.15

1.11.15


5Y CDS
Argentina
Ukraine

8000

Venesuela

5Y CDS

600
500

6000

90

400
300

4000

Spain
Italy

200

2000

Russia
Brasil

16.4.15

30.4.15

0
17.8.15

14.5.15

70
50

100

0
2.4.15

Major global banks, 5Y CDS

110

7.9.15

28.9.15

19.10.15

9.11.1

30
17.8.15

Citigroup

Barclays

17.9.15

SocGen

17.10.15


Baltic Dry Index

1200

Gold and base metals

1200

2500

1180

50

1000

2450

1160

800

48

600

46

400

44

2400

1140

2350

1120
2300

1100

2250

1080

42

200
0
14.8.15

60

Oil

52

3.9.15

23.9.15

13.10.15 2.11.15

Iron-ore Fines 62% (China, imp), $


Iron ore

40
11.9.15

450

Light Sweet

1.10.15

1060

21.10.15

10.11.15

Price for rolled metal (China, export), $

1.10.15

21.10.15

2200
2150
10.11.15

Chemicals, FOB Black Sea Spot Price, $/ton


650
550

Urea Yuzhniy
Ammonia fertilizer
Ammonia nitrate

500

350

50

1040
11.9.15

600

400

55

Gold (lhs)
LMEX Index (rhs)

450
400

300

350

45

40
6.8.15

250

26.8.15

15.9.15

5.10.15 25.10.15

WWW.ARTCAPITAL.UA

200
5.8.15

HR steel sheet
CR steel sheet
25.8.15 14.9.15 4.10.15 24.10.15

300
250
200
17.7.15

6.8.15

26.8.15

15.9.15


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www.artcapital.ua

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+380 44 490 92 46

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+380 44 490 51 85

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10