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Home>TheTrinomialDistribution

TheTrinomialDistribution
YoumightrecallthatthebinomialdistributiondescribesthebehaviorofadiscreterandomvariableX,whereXisthe
numberofsuccessesinntries,wheneachtryresultsinoneofonlytwopossibleoutcomes.Whathappensifthere
aren'ttwo,butratherthree,possibleoutcomes?That'swhatwe'llexplorehereonthispage,endingupnotwiththe
binomialdistribution,butratherthetrinomialdistribution.Aratherfittingname,Imightsay!

Example
Supposen=20studentsareselectedatrandom:
LetAbetheeventthatarandomlyselectedstudentwenttothefootball
gameonSaturday.Also,letP(A)=0.20=p1,say.
LetBbetheeventthatarandomlyselectedstudentwatchedthe
footballgameonTVonSaturday.LetP(B)=0.50=p2,say.
LetCbetheeventthatarandomlyselectedstudentcompletelyignored
thefootballgameonSaturday.LetP(C)=0.30=1p1p2.
Onepossibleoutcome,then,ofselectingthe20studentsatrandomis:
BBCABBAACABBBCCBCBCB
Thatis,thefirsttwostudentswatchedthegameonTV,thethirdstudentignoredthegame,thefourthstudentwentto
thegame,andsoon.Now,ifweletXdenotethenumberinthesamplewhowenttothefootballgameonSaturday,
letYdenotethenumberinthesamplewhowatchedthefootballgameonTVonSaturday,andletZdenotethe
numberinthesamplewhocompletelyignoredthefootballgame,theninthiscase:
X=4(becausethereare4As)
Y=10(becausethereare10Bs)
Z=20XY=6(andyes,indeed,thereare6Cs)
WhatisthejointprobabilitymassfunctionofXandY?

Solution.

Thisexamplelendsitselftothefollowingformaldefinition.

Definition.Supposewerepeatanexperimentnindependenttimes,witheachexperimentendinginoneofthreemutually
exclusiveandexhaustiveways(success,firstkindoffailure,secondkindoffailure).IfweletXdenotethenumberof
timestheexperimentresultsinasuccess,letYdenotethenumberoftimestheexperimentresultsinafailureofthefirst
kind,andletZdenotethenumberoftimestheexperimentresultsinafailureofthesecondkind,thenthejointprobability
massfunctionofXandYis:
n!
f (x, y) = P (X = x, Y = y) =

nxy

p p (1 p1 p2 )
x!y!(n x y)!

with:
x=0,1,,n
y=0,1,,n
x+yn

Example(continued)
WhatarethemarginalprobabilitymassfunctionsofXandY?AreXandYindependent?ordependent?

Solution.Wecaneasilyjustlumpthetwokindsoffailuresbacktogether,therebygettingthatX,thenumber
ofsuccesses,isabinomialrandomvariablewithparametersnandp1.Thatis:
n!

f (x) =

x!(n x)!

nx

p (1 p 1 )
1

withx=0,1,,n.Similarly,wecanlumpthesuccessesinwiththefailuresofthesecondkind,thereby
gettingthatY,thenumberoffailuresofthefirstkind,isabinomialrandomvariablewithparametersnandp2.
Thatis:
n!

f (y) =

y!(n y)!

ny

p (1 p 2 )
2

withy=0,1,,n.Therefore,XandYmustbedependent,becauseifwemultiplythep.m.f.sofXandY
together,wedon'tgetthetrinomialp.m.f.Thatis,f(x,y)f(x)f(y):
[

n!
x!y!(n x y)!

nxy

p p (1 p 1 p 2 )

] [

n!
x!(n x)!

nx

p (1 p 1 )
1

] [

n!
y!(n y)!

Bytheway,there'salsoanotherwayofarguingthatXandYmustbedependent...becausethejointsupport
ofXandYistriangular!

SourceURL:https://onlinecourses.science.psu.edu/stat414/node/106

ny

p (1 p 2 )