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THE DES MOINES REGISTER/ BLOOMBERG POLITICS IOWA POLL

SELZER & COMPANY


500 Republican likely caucusgoers
Margin of error: 4.4 percentage points

Study #2132
January 7-10, 2016
3,391 contacts weighted by age, sex, and
congressional district to conform to active voters
in the Iowa voter registration list
Poll Questions

PERCENTAGES MAY NOT ADD TO 100% DUE TO ROUNDING.


Are you a resident of the state of Iowa and registered to vote here?
100
-

Yes
No
Not sure

Continue
Terminate

How likely is it you will attend one of the caucuses scheduled for February of 2016will you definitely attend,
probably attend, or probably not attend? (If definitely or probably attend, ask:) Will you attend the Democratic or
the Republican caucus? (Continue if definitely or probably attend one of the caucuses.)
Among likely Republican caucusgoers

Jan-16
Dec-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-14

Definitely
attend
Democratic
caucus

Probably
attend
Democratic
caucus

Definitely
attend
Republican
caucus

Probably
attend
Republican
caucus

Probably not
attend a
caucus

Dont know
which caucus
will attend

Not sure

49

51

48
46
47
36
40
39

52
54
53
64
60
61

Have you attended caucuses in the past or will this be your first caucus? (If attended in past, ask:) Was that a
Republican caucus, a Democratic caucus or both?
Among likely Republican caucusgoers

Jan-16
Dec-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-14

Attended
Republican
caucus in the past

Attended
Democratic
caucus in the past

59

29

60
66
64
68
67
72

4
3
3
4
1
2

12
13
12
11
15
11

24
17
21
17
17
14

1
1
1
1

Attended
both

First
caucus

Not sure

Which one of the following Republicans would be your first choice for president? (Read list and rotate.)
And who would your second choice be? (If Uncommitted or Not sure in first choice question, code second
choice as No first choice and do not ask. Read list only if necessary.)
Among likely Republican caucusgoers

First

Second

Combined

Jeb Bush
Ben Carson
Chris Christie
Ted Cruz
Carly Fiorina
Jim Gilmore
Mike Huckabee
John Kasich
Rand Paul
Marco Rubio
Rick Santorum
Donald Trump
Uncommitted (VOLonly if respondent
says the word uncommitted.)
Not sure
No first choice

4
11
3
25
2
3
2
5
12
1
22
5

4
8
3
23
4
4
1
2
16
1
11
4

8
19
6
48
6
7
3
7
28
2
33

8
11

Which one of the following Republicans would be your first choice for president? (Read list and rotate.)
And who would your second choice be? (If Uncommitted or Not sure in first choice question, code second choice as
No first choice and do not ask. Read list only if necessary.)
Among likely Republican caucusgoers

Jeb Bush

Ben Carson

Chris Christie

Ted Cruz

Carly Fiorina

Jim Gilmore

Mike Huckabee

John Kasich

Rand Paul

First
Jan-16
Dec-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15
Jan-15
Jan-16
Dec-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15
Jan-15
Jan-16
Dec-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15
Jan-15
Jan-16
Dec-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15
Jan-15
Jan-16
Dec-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15
Jan-15
Jan-16
Dec-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
Jan-16
Dec-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15
Jan-15
Jan-16
Dec-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15
Jan-15
Jan-16
Dec-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15
Jan-15

Second

Combined

6
5
6
9
8

5
5
4
7
7

11
10
10
16
15

11

19

13
28
18
10
9

14
19
14
5
10

27
47
32
15
19

3
1
2
4
4

3
2
1
4
3

6
3
3
8
7

25

23

48

31
10
8
5
5

20
9
10
8
6

51
19
18
13
11

1
4
5
2
1
-

4
13
11
3
1
-

5
17
16
5
2
-

3
3
4
9
10

5
3
4
8
7

8
6
8
17*
17

2
2
2
2
1

2
2
3
1
1

4
4
5
3
2

3
5
4
10
14

3
4
3
5
9

6
9
7
15
23

Marco Rubio

First

Second

Combined

12

16

28

10
9
6
6
3

14
11
8
12
8

24
20
14
18
11

1
2
1
6
4

2
1
2
6
6

3
3
3
12
10

22

11

33

21
19
23
4
1

14
9
9
2
1

35
28
32
6
2

3
3
5
4
2

3
2
1
2
1

4
7
5
7
5
Jan-16
Dec-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15
Jan-15

4
2
4
5
6

Jan-16
Dec-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15
Jan-15
Jan-16
Dec-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15
Jan-15
Jan-16
Dec-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15
Jan-15
Jan-16
Dec-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15
Jan-15
Jan-16
Dec-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15
Jan-15

Rick Santorum

Donald Trump

Uncommitted (VOLonly if respondent


says the word uncommitted.)

Not sure

No first choice

11
7
11
10
11
7

*Combined does not match below for certain candidates due to rounding.
When it comes to your support of [FIRST CHOICE CANDIDATE], would you say your mind is made up, or
could you still be persuaded to support another candidate as your first choice? (Those who said No first
choice have been coded as Could still be persuaded.)
Among all Rep CGs
Jan-16
Dec-15
Oct-15

n=500
n=400
n=401

4.4% pts
4.9% pts
4.9% pts

Mind is
made up

Could still be
persuaded

Not
sure

42

56

33
22

66
78

1
1

When it comes to your support of [FIRST CHOICE CANDIDATE], would you say your mind is made up, or
could you still be persuaded to support another candidate as your first choice? (Those who said No first
choice have been coded as Could still be persuaded.)
Among Cruz supporters
Jan-16
Dec-15
Oct-15

n=123
n=120
n=36

8.9% pts
9.0% pts
16.6% pts

Mind is
made up

Could still be
persuaded

Not
sure

51

48

43
37

55
63

2
-

When it comes to your support of [FIRST CHOICE CANDIDATE], would you say your mind is made up, or
could you still be persuaded to support another candidate as your first choice? (Those who said No first
choice have been coded as Could still be persuaded.)
Among Trump supporters
Jan-16
Dec-15
Oct-15

n=110
n=86
n=80

9.4% pts
10.6% pts
11.0% pts

Mind is
made up

Could still be
persuaded

Not
sure

64

36

45
32

55
67

(Asked only for each candidate NOT answered as first or second choice.) Im going to mention the candidates who are
not your first or second choice. For each, please tell me if you think you could ever support the person for president or
would never support the person for president. (Read appropriate names. Use same rotation as horserace questions. If
selected as first or second choice, code as 1st or 2nd choice and do not ask.)
Among likely Republican caucusgoers

Jeb Bush

Ben Carson

Chris Christie

Ted Cruz

Carly Fiorina

Jim Gilmore

Mike Huckabee

John Kasich

Not sure

1st or 2nd
choice

Ever

Never

Jan-16
Dec-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15

40

50

45
48
50
38

41
40
39
35

3
2
2
10

11
10
9
16

Jan-16
Dec-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15

52

27

19

55
41
50
47

17
10
12
18

2
3
6
20

26
47
32
15

Jan-16
Dec-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15

43

48

51
45
44
34

40
48
48
45

3
4
5
13

7
3
3
8

Jan-16
Dec-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15

33

18

48

31
49
54
49

17
27
24
21

2
5
4
18

50
19
18
13

Jan-16
Dec-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15

50

39

57
54
55
38

33
23
20
27

5
6
9
30

5
17
16
5

Jan-16
Dec-15
Oct-15
Aug-15

10

71

20

14
17
20

59
59
51

28
24
28

Jan-16
Dec-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15

51

40

57
60
60
51

32
31
28
24

3
3
4
9

8
6
8
16

Jan-16
Dec-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15

30

59

32
36
41
29

53
45
40
28

11
14
14
40

4
4
5
3

Among likely Republican caucusgoers

Rand Paul

Marco Rubio

Rick Santorum

Donald Trump

Not sure

1st or 2nd
choice

Ever

Never

Jan-16
Dec-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15

42

48

47
43
43
45

44
45
43
30

4
4
6
10

5
9
8
15

Jan-16
Dec-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15

46

24

28

56
55
60
49

19
20
19
18

2
5
6
15

23
20
15
18

Jan-16
Dec-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15

50

46

54
53
56
51

40
38
35
26

3
5
6
11

3
4
3
12

Jan-16
Dec-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15

24

41

33

33
35
36
28

30
34
29
58

3
3
3
8

34
27
32
6

*Combined in the horserace question does not match 1st/2nd choice for certain candidates in the ever/never
question due to rounding.
Now, Im going to mention some candidates for the Republican nomination for president. For each, please tell me
if your feelings are very favorable, mostly favorable, mostly unfavorable, or very unfavorable. If you dont know
enough about the person to answer, just say so. (Record dont know as not sure. Rotate list.)
Among likely Republican caucusgoers

Fav

Unf

Very
Favorable

Mostly
Favorable

Mostly
Unfavorable

Very
Unfavorable

Not
Sure

Jeb Bush
Jeb Bush, former governor of Florida

Jan-16
Dec-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-14

47

50

10

37

32

18

39*
50
45*
43
46
50

54
43
50
45
43
28

6
14
10
11
17
9

32
36
36
32
29
41

32
25
31
27
25
19

22
18
19
18
18
9

7
7
5
13
11
22

Ben Carson
Ben Carson, retired neurosurgeon

Jan-16
Dec-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-14

73*

22*

29

45

16

72
84
79
56
50
41

22
12
8
15
12
8

28
53
46
24
28
24

44
31
33
32
22
17

13
7
6
10
9
4

9
5
2
5
3
4

6
4
13
29
38
51

Chris Christie
Chris Christie, governor of New Jersey

Jan-16
Dec-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-14

51

42

12

39

27

15

46
39*
29
28*
36
39

42*
49
59
58
54
45

8
6
5
6
7
8

38
32
24
21
29
31

24
28
36
39
32
29

19
21
23
19
22
16

11
12
12
14
10
16

Ted Cruz
Ted Cruz, U.S. senator from Texas

Jan-16
Dec-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-14

76

19

39

37

10

73
61
61
59
58
52

19*
26
24
20
21
18

43
28
29
20
22
20

30
33
32
39
36
32

12
15
17
13
14
11

6
11
7
7
7
7

9
13
15
21
21
30

Ben Carson, retired neurosurgeon from


Maryland

Among likely Republican caucusgoers

Fav

Unf

Very
Favorable

Mostly
Favorable

Mostly
Unfavorable

Very
Unfavorable

Not
Sure

Carly Fiorina
Carly Fiorina, former CEO of HewlettPackard

Jan-16
Dec-15
Oct-15
Aug-15

58

28

13

45

17

11

13

52
66
64

33*
22
15

12
26
31

40
40
33

22
13
8

10
9
7

15
12
21

Carly Fiorina, former CEO of HewlettPackard and candidate for the U.S. Senate
in California

May-15

41*

19*

13

27

12

40

Jan-15

15

19

11

13

66

Mike Huckabee
Mike Huckabee, former governor of
Arkansas

Jan-16
Dec-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-14

59

33

19

40

21

12

53
61
61
61
66
59

38
33
30*
30
28
30

16
18
17
21
28
23

37
43
44
40
38
36

26
22
21
21
21
23

12
11
10
9
7
7

9
6
9
9
6
11

John Kasich
John Kasich, governor of Ohio

Jan-16
Dec-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-14

28

43

22

26

17

29

19
31*
33*
25
22
17

46
33*
22
16*
14
7

5
8
10
7
7
3

14
22
22
18
15
14

31
22
17
11
10
5

15
12
5
4
4
2

34
36
45
59
64
76

Rand Paul
Rand Paul, U.S. senator from Kentucky

Jan-16
Dec-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-14

45

43

11

34

29

14

12

37
43*
39*
55
64
59

50*
48*
49
34
25
24

9
12
11
16
25
21

28
30
29
39
39
38

30
29
31
24
18
18

19
18
18
10
7
6

14
10
12
11
11
17

Marco Rubio
Marco Rubio, U.S. senator from Florida

Jan-16
Dec-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-14

73

21*

29

44

14

70
70*
67
60
57
54

21
20
20
17
20
16

24
26
24
20
16
14

46
43
43
40
41
40

15
12
15
12
15
12

6
8
5
5
5
4

9
10
13
23
23
30

Rick Santorum
Rick Santorum, former U.S. senator from
Pennsylvania

Jan-16
Dec-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-14

52*

34

12

39

24

10

14

42
51
48*
56
57
52

43*
34*
37*
28
30
30

8
12
11
18
16
14

34
39
38
38
41
38

28
21
26
19
22
20

14
14
10
9
8
10

16
15
15
16
13
18

Donald Trump
Donald Trump, a businessman from New
York
Donald Trump, businessman and
television personality

Jan-16
Dec-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15
Jan-15

54*

45

26

27

23

22

57
59
61*
27
26

38
37
35
63*
68

25
27
26
7
4

32
32
34
20
22

17
19
16
31
36

21
18
19
33
32

5
5
4
10
6

Earlier, you mentioned you would never support Donald Trump. Do you think of yourself as part of a Stop Trump
effort, or just do not support him? (Asked only of those who say they will never support Trump; n=198.)
Rep CG

5
94
1

Part of Stop Trump


Just do not support him
Not sure

Earlier, you mentioned you would never support Ted Cruz. Do you think of yourself as part of a Stop Cruz effort, or
just do not support him? (Asked only of those who say they will never support Cruz; n=86.)
Rep CG

9
84
7

Part of Stop Cruz


Just do not support him
Not sure

On a different topic now, how often do you attend religious services, if you do at all?
Rep CG

57
13
7
13
9
1

At least once a week


A couple of times a month
Maybe once a month
Only on rare occasions
Do not attend religious services
Not sure

Ask next two questions


Skip to disrupt question

How common is it for you to talk about what candidates to support while you are at a religious servicedo you do
it almost every time you go during a campaign season, once in a while, or typically never? (Asked only of those
who attend religious services; n=451.)
Rep CG

5
23
70
2

Almost every time


Once in a while
Typically never
Not sure

Do you happen to know which candidate any of your clergy support? (If yes, ask:) Do you happen to support the
same candidate that one of your clergy members supports? (Asked only of those who attend religious services;
n=451.)
Rep CG

9
4
84
4

Yes, know support, and yes support the same


Yes, know support, but do not support same
No, do not know whom clergy support
Not sure

How much a part of your support for candidates is because you want to disrupt the way government typically worksis
that the single most important thing you look for, a major consideration, a minor consideration, or something you do not
want in a candidate?
Rep CG

6
42
34
11
7

Single most important


Major consideration
Minor consideration
Not what is wanted in a candidate
Not sure

Thinking just about two candidates[DONALD TRUMP] and [TED CRUZ], which one do you think would be more
disruptive to the way government works?
Rep CG

71
14
6
9

Donald Trump
Ted Cruz
Equal (VOL)
Not sure

Im going to mention some things people have said about Ted Cruz. Regardless of whether you support him for
president, please tell me for each if this is something that you find very attractive about him, mostly attractive, mostly
unattractive, or very unattractive. (Read list. Rotate.)
Among likely Republican caucusgoers

Hes angered many fellow members of Congress


Hes guided by Christian values in opposing abortion
and gay marriage
He could be counted on to base his decisions on the
U.S. Constitution
He has little foreign policy experience
He voted to stop the U.S. government from collecting
bulk phone data
He has voted to cut the military
He opposes any path to legal residency for people
living in the U.S. illegally
He has generally avoided criticizing Donald Trump
Like Barack Obama in 2008, he is a first-term senator
He wants to phase out the Renewable Fuel Standard

Very
Attractive

Mostly
Attractive

Mostly
Unattractive

Very
Unattractive

Not
Sure

25

33

18

11

13

54

24

11

70
5

24
17

2
44

2
16

2
18

28
4

32
7

19
45

8
35

13
9

30
34
12
13

32
41
33
24

21
12
24
24

8
6
8
18

9
7
24
21

Ted Cruz was born in Canada to an American mother. Does it bother you or not bother you that he was born outside the
United States?
Rep CG

15
83
2

Bothers
Does not bother
Not sure

Do you consider the candidate or candidates you are supporting to be more establishment or anti-establishment
Republicans?
Rep CG
n=500
4.4% pts

Cruz
supporters
n=123
8.9% pts

Trump
supporters
n=110
9.4% pts

31
52
8
9

24
68
2
6

18
66
12
5

Establishment
Anti-establishment
Some of each (VOL)
Not sure

Which ONE of the following factions of the Republican party describes you best as you think about which candidate to
support: (Rotate list.)

Jan-16
Dec-15

Tea
party

Evangelical
conservative

Mainstream
Republican

Not
sure

22

30

38

24

32

35

10

Were interested in how you decide on a candidate to support. For each of the following, please tell me if this is
extremely important, just important, or not that important to you as you evaluate candidates. If an item does not apply to
you, just say so. (Rotate list.)
Among likely Republican caucusgoers

How the candidate has performed at debates


How the candidate has reacted to major U.S. news
events
How the candidate has reacted to major news events
outside the U.S.
How the candidate has handled media interviews,
speeches, and television appearances
What the candidate has said on social media
What people you follow have said about the candidate
on social media
How the candidate engages with caucusgoers at events
youve attended
How the candidate engages with people at churches

Extremely
important

Important

Not that
important

Does not
Apply

Not
sure

36

48

12

38

50

38

49

30
13

51
31

16
40

2
14

13

62

20

25
18

43
39

13
24

16
15

3
4

Were interested in issues that affect which candidate you will support. For each of the following, please tell me if this
is extremely important, just important, or not that important to you as you evaluate candidates. (Rotate list.)
Among likely Republican caucusgoers

The economy
National security
The gap between rich and poor
Taxes
Civil rights
Social issues like abortion and gay marriage

Extremely
important

Important

Not that
important

72
79
15
46
34
47

27
20
40
48
52
33

1
1
44
6
14
20

Not
sure

1
1
-

Were also interested in traits that affect which candidate you will support. For each of the following, please tell me if
this is extremely important, just important, or not that important to you as you evaluate candidates. (Rotate list.)
Among likely Republican caucusgoers

The values the candidate holds


Your confidence in the candidate to win the general election in
November
Your confidence the candidate will change the way government
works for the better
Experience inside government

Extremely
important

Important

Not that
important

72

27

55

35

66
13

31
44

3
42

1
1

Not sure

Do you think this election is more about leadership or more about issues candidates stand for?
Rep CG

52
40
2
7

Leadership
Issues
Something else (VOL and specify)
Not sure

Im going to mention some things caucusgoers sometimes do as part of campaign activities. For each, please tell me if this
is something you have done, expect to do, or will probably not do before the February 1st caucuses. (Rotate list.)
Among likely Republican caucusgoers

Follow candidates on social media


Post positive comments about candidates on social media
Post negative comments about candidates on social media

Already
done

Expect
to do

Probably
will not do

27
15
8

11
8
4

61
76
87

Not sure

1
1
1

Did you attend the 2012 Republican caucus? (If yes, ask:) For whom did you vote? (Read underlined names if
needed. Rotate. Asked only of likely 2016 Republican caucusgoers who have attended a Republican caucus in the
past.)
2016 Rep CGs who
have attended a Rep
caucus in the past
n=336
5.4% pts

22
31
14
5
3
4
2
2
7
9

No, did not attend 2012 Republican caucus


Yes, supported Mitt Romney
Yes, supported Rick Santorum
Yes, supported Ron Paul
Yes, supported Newt Gingrich
Yes, supported Rick Perry
Yes, supported Michele Bachmann
Yes, supported someone else
Yes, not sure of support
Not sure whether attended

Compared to:
Study #2130
400 Republican likely caucusgoers
404 Democratic likely caucusgoers
Margin of error: 4.9 percentage points for each party

December 7-10, 2015


2,635 contacts weighted by age, sex, and
congressional district to conform to active voters
in the Iowa voter registration list

Study #2128
401 Republican likely caucusgoers
402 Democratic likely caucusgoers
Margin of error 4.9 percentage points for each party

October 16-19, 2015


2,771 contacts weighted by age, sex, and
congressional district to conform to active voters
in the Iowa voter registration list

Study #2125
400 Republican likely caucusgoers
Margin of error: 4.9 percentage points for Republicans
404 Democratic likely caucusgoers
Margin of error 4.9 percentage points for Democrats

August 23-26, 2015


2,975 contacts weighted by age, sex, and
congressional district to conform to active voters
in the Iowa voter registration list

Study #2122
401 Democratic likely caucusgoers in Iowa
Margin of error: 4.9 percentage points

June 19-22, 2015


1,805 contacts weighted by age, sex, and congressional district
to conform to active Democratic and no-party voters
in the Iowa voter registration list

Study #2118
402 Republican likely caucusgoers
Margin of error: 4.9 percentage points for Republicans
437 Democratic likely caucusgoers
Margin of error: 4.7 percentage points for Democrats

May 25-29, 2015


4,161 contacts weighted by age, sex, and
congressional district to conform to active voters
in the Iowa voter registration list

Study #2113
402 Republican likely caucusgoers
401 Democratic likely caucusgoers
Margin of error: 4.9 percentage points for each party

January 26-29, 2015


3,813 contacts weighted by age, sex, and
congressional district to conform to active voters
in the Iowa voter registration list

Study #2104
425 Republican likely caucusgoers
426 Democratic likely caucusgoers
Margin of error: 4.8 percentage points for each party

October 1-7, 2014


3,677 contacts weighted by age and sex to conform
to active voters in Iowa voter registration list

About the Poll


The Iowa Poll, conducted January 7-10 for The Des Moines Register and Bloomberg Politics by Selzer & Co. of Des
Moines, is based on telephone interviews with 500 registered Iowa voters who say they definitely or probably will attend
the 2016 Republican caucuses and 503 registered voters who say they definitely or probably will attend the 2016
Democratic caucuses.
Interviewers contacted 3,391 randomly selected active voters from the Iowa secretary of states voter registration list by
telephone. Responses were adjusted by age, sex, and congressional district to reflect all active voters in the voter
registration list.
Questions based on the subsamples of 503 likely Democratic caucus attendees or 500 likely Republican caucus attendees
each have a maximum margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points. This means that if this survey were
repeated using the same questions and the same methodology, 19 times out of 20, the findings would not vary from the
percentages shown here by more than plus or minus 4.4 percentage points. Results based on smaller samples of
respondentssuch as by gender or agehave a larger margin of error.
Republishing the copyright Iowa Poll without credit to The Des Moines Register and Bloomberg Politics is prohibited.