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Diagram
(sources for pictures taken from textbook not
mentioned to reduce clutter)
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<Plant growth>
Pest
dynamics
<Farm based
inputs>
<Soil fertility>
+
Pest and
diseases
+ +
Microbial +
richness
Market
+
Organic
Pesticide
+
Chemical
pesticides
<Field
diversity>
+
Species
richness in pest
and diseases
+
+
Species abundance of
birds and rodents
+
-Species abundance
of P&D
-
+
Field diversity
+
Species richness
in birds and
rodents +
+
Species
richness in
predator insects -
Species abundance of +
predatory insects
<Organic
Pesticide>
<Chemical
pesticides>
+
Physical control
methods
road
construction +
+
road capacity
Traffic volume
depends on congestion,
closing several
feedback loops that
cause traffic to
traffic volume
+
increase whenever new
+
+
roads are built
pressure to reduce
+congestion -
B1
+
desired travel
time
travel time
B2
+
attractiveness of driving
+
B3
B4
+ cars in region +
public transit
fare
public transit
ridership
average trip +
length
population and
economic activity
in the region
adequacy of
public transit
A positive (+) polarity means that the value of the affected variable increases
as the value of the causal variables increases
A negative (-) polarity means that the value of the affected variable
decreases as the value of the causal variables increases
But there is a catch
As population rises, both number of cars and number of train users rise
A positive (+) polarity means that the value of the affected variable increases
as the value of the causal variables increases, all other thing being constant
A negative (-) polarity means that the value of the affected variable
decreases as the value of the causal variables increases, all other thing being
constant
Causal Links
Tree cutting increases the pollution level
Variable name must be a noun or noun phrase:
Tree Cutting vs. Number of Trees
Causal Links
Terse
cars/ number of cars
(Everything should be made as simple as possible, but not
simpler Einstein) terse is not always better
Causal Links
Represent the relation between birth rate and
population
does a decrease in birth rate means lower population
No. lower than what it otherwise would have been
difference between stock and flow to be discussed
later
Practice: Relationship
between more than two
variables
Cause and effect are generally linked by a chain
of variables
Reducing wages result in increasing employment
Chain of Reasoning
If minimum wage rises, pressure to pay lower than
minimum wage will rise, unless the gross income
rises
From Editorial in The Mint on Sept. 16:
A good monsoon will likely provide a boost to
rural demand, though it remains to be seen how the
positive effect on farm incomes from higher output
is balanced by a negative effect from lower farm
+ rural demand
prices
rainfall
farm output
rural income
+
farm prices
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Causal Loops
A change in any variable sets up a chain
reaction that eventually results in further
changes in that variable
_
Demand
Price
Price
+
Supply
Making mechanism
explicit
price
price
+
cost of
substitutes
relative
value
demand
Demand
Price
Demand
Price
Demand
Price
road
construction +
+
road capacity
Traffic volume
depends on congestion,
closing several
feedback loops that
cause traffic to
traffic volume
+
increase whenever new
+
+
roads are built
pressure to reduce
+congestion -
B1
+
desired travel
time
travel time
B2
+
attractiveness of driving
+
B3
B4
+ cars in region +
public transit
fare
public transit
ridership
average trip +
length
population and
economic activity
in the region
adequacy of
public transit
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20
Loop Construction
Practice
TV watching and social life
Use of pesticides: consider short and long term
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+
Forest
Cover
Rain
Demand
Price
Supply
Notes
Variable names to be chosen carefully
All links must have polarity
There must be loops in your System Diagram.
Absence of loops generally indicate incomplete
reasoning.
*All loops must be marked Balancing (B/-) or
Reinforcing(R/+)
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Feedback System
Thinking
Problems do not stem
from events and
solutions do not
operate in a vacuum.
Problems and solutions
coexist and are
interdependent
Feedback results in
causal loops.
Seeks solutions that
are sympathetic with
agents and their
motivations
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