First: Read Week 2 Notes

You will need one data file, and EXCEL to examine data and prepare graphs. You will
also need to download some images and graphs from a global temperature mapping tool
online. Answer all of the questions in this investigation. First answer the check-in
questions by Thursday. Then turn in your final plots, calculations and answers to this
assignment as a single report/ document by uploading to the assignment by Saturday, and
finally, post your answers comparing our local investigation to this global inquiry to the
discussion board by Monday.
A. Fluctuations of the global climate
Transfer the Globally Averaged Temperature file global_temp.xlsx to Excel, and examine the
contents. The data are saved in columns, with the year in column 1, monthly temperatures (in
degrees C) in columns 2-13, annual mean temperature in column 14, and seasonal mean
temperatures in columns 15-18 (e.g., DJF = December-January-February, which is the
climatological definition of Northern Hemisphere winter).
Task 1: Choose 10 non-successive years at random, and compare the annual temperature in each
year to that in the following year (e.g., if 1871 and 1925 are 2 of your 10 years, compare 1871 to
1872, 1925 to 1926, and so on).
1880 1888 1900 1920 1945 1967 1986 2000
Temperature 13.75 13.74 13.9 13.81 14.07
14
14.13 14.33
Next Year
13.8 13.85 13.84 13.87 13.96 13.96 14.27 14.48
Temperature
0.05 0.11 -0.06 0.06 -0.11 -0.04 0.14 0.15
Difference

2008
14.41
14.55

2014
14.64
14.75

0.146

0.113

a. What is the typical magnitude (i.e., ignoring the sign) of year-to-year global temperature
changes?
1880
Next Year

1888

1900

1920

2000

2008

2014

13.75 13.74 13.9 13.81 14.07

14
14.13 14.33
13.8 13.85 13.84 13.87 13.96 13.96 14.27 14.48
0.05 0.11 0.06 0.06 0.11 0.04 0.14 0.15

14.41
14.55
0.146

14.64
14.75
0.113

Average Temperature Change = 0.0979C

1945

1967

1986

b. Of your 10 years, how many times did the temperature increase/decrease in the following
year?
Increased 7
Decreased 3
c. Does it seem possible to predict whether next year is going to be warmer than this year
globally?
Based on the data that I randomly selected it does not seem possible to predict the weather next
year.
Task 2: Make a scatter plot of DJF temperature vs. JJA temperature (do not plot either one vs.
time). Add a linear trendline to the data and display the R2 value under the legend. Do especially
warm winters tend to be followed by especially warm or cold summers? (Of course, DJF is only
winter in the Northern Hemisphere; the issue we are exploring is whether global climate can be
predicted 6 months in advance.) This plot is a perspective spanning much more than a human
lifetime; our personal perception of climate change in our daily lives tends to be based on our
experiences over only the last few years. Now plot the data for the 1990-2001 only; is the
correlation strong or weak? Again, add a trendline and R2 to the plot.

JJA (Average Temperature)

DJF vs. JJA from 1880-2015

14.8
14.6
14.4

y = 0.7871x + 2.9951
R = 0.80734

14.2
14

JJA

13.8

Linear(JJA)

13.6
13.4
13.2

13.4

13.6

13.8

14

14.2

DJF (Average Temperature)

14.4

14.6

14.8

JJA (Average Temperature)

DJF vs. JJA from 1990-2001

14.8
14.7
14.6

y = 0.7505x + 3.5751
R = 0.36969

14.5
14.4
14.3

Series1

14.2

Linear(Series1)

14.1
14
14

14.1

14.2

14.3

14.4

14.5

14.6

14.7

DJF (Average Temperature)

a. Compare the slope of the two trendlines; entire series vs. 1990-2001. From your own
observations, was last winter where you live above or below average?
The slope of the entire series is slightly steeper than the slope from 1990-2001. The entire series
has a slope of .7871 and the series from 1990-2001 has a slope of .7505. I remember last winter
being warmer than average. There were a couple of really cold snaps, but the overall feeling was
warm.
b. Can we predict with confidence what kind of summer will follow that winter?
It seems that warmer summers follow warmer winters. I think that a .8 correlation is enough to
be confident about.
B. Decadal-to-century variability and trends.
Task 3: Make a chart of annual temperature vs. time for the years 1867-2006 and calculate its
slope and intercept.

Average Global Temperature (1880-2015)

Average Temperature (Deg. C)

15
14.8
y = 0.0062x + 1.9224
R = 0.77253

14.6
14.4
14.2

Average Temperature

14

Linear(Average Temperature)

13.8
13.6
13.4
1850

1900

1950

2000

2050

Year

a. How would you describe the general appearance of this curve? Describe the major features of
the global temperature time series.
The overall trend is increasing. There is a decrease from 1914-1920 and another decrease from
1944-1964. From 1976-1998 there is the fastest increase.
b. How much warming has occurred over the entire time series?
The range of average temperatures is 1.15C from the lowest (13.6C) to the highest (14.75C).
c. Now make a chart of annual temperature vs. time for only the years 1975-2015. How does the
slope compare to the 1867-2015 curve?

Average Temperature (Deg. C)

Average Global Temperature (1975-2015)

14.8
14.6
y = 0.0168x - 19.174
R = 0.81648

14.4
14.2

Series1

14

Linear(Series1)

13.8
13.6
1970

1980

1990

2000
Year

2010

2020

The slope of the entire series is .0062 and the slope of the series from 1975-2015 is .0168. This
tells me that the temperature is increasing faster now than it traditionally has from 1880.
C. Regional Change
Task 4: Now well look at the regional distribution of temperature anomalies around the globe.
The NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies maintains a detailed and up-to-date data
repository of global temperatures. On their website, this page is a press release discussing the
temperatures globally in 2015. Look at the graph at the bottom of the page and determine which
are the two warmest years on record.
a. Which are the two warmest years you selected?
The two warmest years appear to be 2014 and 2015.
b. How much warmer are they than the reference base period from 1950-1981?
2014 was about .7C above the base period and 2015 was about .85C above the baseline.
Task 5: Next, go to the GISS website and click on the "Global Maps", the second color map on
the bar on the right to observe the regional surface temperature distribution for each of the two
years you found above. This will open a tool that makes a global temperature map according to
your specifications. Before you make each map, be sure that you have selected all of the
appropriate parameters. Your map type should be "anomalies," your mean period should be
"annual," and your time interval should span the chosen year. Note: if oceans are set to "none,"
you will not be able to see data for the ocean. Download the Global Temperature Anomaly Map
images and the Zonal Mean vs. Latitude graphs for each of the two years you selected, and
paste these images into your assignment to upload.
2014

2015

a. Are the annual regional anomaly distributions the same for the two years you observed?
The regional anomalies are around the same locations. The continents in the northern hemisphere
have the highest differences. The Indian Ocean also has higher than normal temperatures in the
southern hemisphere. Antarctica was much warmer in 2015 than it was in 2014. The north
Atlantic was cooler in 2015.
b. What do the Zonal Mean vs. Latitude graphs under each map look like?
The Zonal Mean vs. Latitude graph for 2014 shows below average temperature when compared
to the baseline data between 90-65S. Between about 40S and 40N the average temperature
fluctuates around .75C above the baseline. There is a very sharp rise between about 40-75N
that spikes around 3.25C above normal at 60N.
The 2015 Zonal Mean vs. Latitude graph shows only a slight dip below the baseline at 60S. The
tropics have a spike 15 on either side of the equator, which is due to the warm waters of the
Pacific Ocean. The spike in the northern hemisphere is much wider than in 2014. It ranges from
30-75N. The peak is still around 3.25C above the baseline.
c. Based on the observed maps and graphs for the two chosen years, what areas exhibit the most
warming and cooling?
The most warming appears to be over continents in the northern hemisphere. The middle of the
oceans, especially the Pacific, also show increased warming. The Sahara Desert and the Middle
East show cooling between 2014 and 2015. The area between Greenland and Canada also shows
cooling from 2014 to 2015.
d. Can you explain the reason for features observed (or not observed) in the tropical Pacific?
The 2014 and 2015 tropical Pacific waters show evidence of El Nio, which occurs when the
water temperature is warmer than usual. The warmer water is caused by weak trade winds.
Normally the trade winds push warm water in the Pacific to the west and allow the upwelling of
cold water. Weak trade winds prevent this (What are El Nio and La Nia?, 2016).
References:
What are El Nio and La Nia? (2016, January 22). Retrieved January 29, 2016, from
http://oceanservice.noaa.gov/facts/ninonina.html