Introduction and Description of the Problem

Universities and colleges do not like to admit students who do not perform well
and are labeled as likely to fail. It can be a very unpleasant experience for both the
student and school. Often, school funding is dependent upon the graduation rate of the
school, so picking the right type of student is very important. I am a trained Statistician
and I have been asked by my supervisor to prepare a detailed non-technical statistical
plan that can help you determine which students are most likely to be successful in our
university.
Description of the Variables
First, lets examine our student population. Our sample student population
ranges in age from 17 to 34 years old. The average age is around twenty years old. Only
2.5% of the population is aged 24 years or older. Most of these are adults in their twenties
or thirties who are changing career. 61% of our population is female while 39 % of our
population is male. This information is summarized in Chart A of the Appendix.
In terms of English ACT test scores; the national average for English is 20.6. We
admit students with an average score of 23. Our range of scores is from 8 to 35. It is
important to note that although the national average is 20.6, only 25 percent of our
students score below 20. Scores below 16 are only 2.5% of the student population while
scores over 30 represent the top 2.5% of our student population. This information is
summarized in Chart A of the Appendix.
With respect to Math ACT scores, the national average is 21.1. Only 25% of our
students scored below 20. We admit students with an average score of 23. The range we
accept is from 13 to 33. This information is summarized in Chart A of the Appendix.

With regard to Composite ACT scores, the national average is 21.6. Our scores
range from 13 to 34. Only 2.5 % score below 18 or above 30. Only 25% of our students
score below 21 which is close to the National Average. This information is summarized in
Chart A of the Appendix.
In many cases, High School Percentile or rank can be an important predictor of
future performance. This is reflected in the fact that only 2.5% of our students are in the
bottom 42% of their high school class. Our average student has a standing of around 75%
in their high school class, and our entire student population was ranked in somewhere
between 23% and 99% within their respective High School Class. Over 25% of our
students were ranked 94% or higher in their high school class. Only 25% were ranked
63% or lower. This information is summarized in Chart A of the Appendix.
The process of analyzing data can often be long and complex. For this report, we
simplified the collection of data by utilizing and analyzing a wide array of tables running
Bar Charts and Scatter Plots. We looked for correlations between variables to determine
which combinations of characters would make a successful student. It is important to note
that correlation does not imply causation. So, nothing is for certain. However, the patterns
and demonstrated through the proper use of statistical trends cannot be ignored because
they are likely to repeat themselves.
Analysis and Interpretation of the Data
Several combinations of variables seem to more closely relate then others. These
include the variables of GPA and High School Percentile, English and ACT composite

scores, and if we are willing to think a bit out of the box, we can access factors that might
not be obvious at first.
Of particular interest is the chart showing relationships between GPA and High
School Percentile. This chart is called a Scatter Plot (Chart B in the Appendix) and
shows the relationship between GPA and High School Percentile (rank in the students
high school). Our model can accurately predict that 29% of the data will fall directly on
our regression line. We have a correlational value of .5344 which means we have a
moderately strong correlation between GPA and High School Percentile scores. Our
model GPA = 1.778834 + 0.0172208* HSP (High School Percentile) means that every
time our High School Percentile goes up by one percent, our GPA can be expected to go
up by 1.7%. So, if we decide that 3.0 is a suitable GPA for admittance into the college, we
can predict the corresponding class rank would be 71%. So, the High School percentile
cutoff point would be 71%. Additionally, the t test shows that HSP is a good predictor for
GPA. If the p value is less then .05, we reject the null hypothesis which means that it is
likely that the alternative hypothesis is true. In this case, the null hypotheses would be 0
which indicates the slope of the regression line is zero which indicates no change in the
slope of the regression line or no change in the corresponding High School Percentile.
However, we reject this in favor of the alternative hypothesis which indicates the slope of
the line is not zero; hence this shows that there really is a linear association between HSP
and GPA.
Lets also look at the connection of GPA and English ACT Scores. We can use a
Scatter Plot once again (Chart C in the Appendix) to show the relationship between GPA
and English ACT Scores. In this case, our model can accurately predict GPA scores 12 %

of the time. Anything over 10% is considered statistically significant. We have a

correlational value of .3452 is which shows a borderline weak to moderate connection
between English ACT Scores and GPA scores. I kind of see the connection. If you cant
read and write English, you might not be able to understand the instructor and thus your
GPA would be lower. Our model shows that GPA predictor = 2.0417772 + 0.0442334 *
English ACT Score means that for every time our English ACT Scores goes up by 1
Point, our GPA can be expected to go up by .04%. So, if we get an English ACT score of
22, it will predict a GPA of 3.0. Additionally, the t test shows that English ACT Scores are
a good parameter to predict the GPA score.
Now, for the sake of analysis, I would like to look at the relationship of GPA and
Math ACT Scores (Chart D in the Appendix).We see a weak positive correlation value of
only .2316. However, I think we would make a mistake by not including this in our
assessment. Although the correlation value between GPA and Math is rather low, you
definitely need some Math to be successful in college. When you are still in High School,
you may not realize the value of a college education. You might be hanging out with your
friends and not taking life seriously. You are still just a teenager and might not have a
fixed mind. But, when you are in college, you start to think about wanting to make
money and have a successful career. So, you settle down and get serious. Math is an
integral part of the learning process in any school. Even at CUNY, when you are first
admitted as a freshman, you are required to take a Math placement Test. If you are weak
in math, Hunter College requires that you take Math 100 or Math 101 before moving up
to the more difficult advanced classes. So, I am not willing to discount Math. Our
predictor model shows GPA = 2.3323804 + 0.0311592 * Math ACT Scores. So, we would

predict a GPA of 3.0 if our Math ACT Score was 22. Even though the correlation value is
low, I feel we should still use it.
For further analysis, we should also take a look at the relationship of GPA to
Composition ACT Scores (Chart E in the Appendix). We see a weak positive correlation
value of only 0.32. However, writing is also an integral part of the learning process in any
college. College is all about reading and writing. Massive amounts of information are
presented to every student. Students are often tested and a student must regurgitate this
information back to the professor. This is done through written exams, research papers,
term papers, and other types of reports. If you cant read and write, the quality of your
research papers would not be as good as someone who did know how to write. So, I think
writing skills are one of the factors that are necessary for you to be a successful student or
have a high GPA. Again, as a child, you might now have been serious about school. But
when you are older, you understand the value of a degree and work harder. Our predictor
Model shows GPA = 1.8310121 + 0.0521395 * Composite ACT scores. So, if we were
looking to predict a GPA of 3.0, by using this equation, we can find that an ACT score of
22 or better is necessary.
Summary
In summary, a lot of factors determine whether or not a student will be successful
in college and have a good GPA. We can potentially determine how successful a student
will be by looking at his GPA. I think we can all agree that a GPA of 3.0 (B Average)
would be considered acceptable. In order to predict this, I would look at the variables of
High School Rank, and English ACT Scores. Now, even though we have week
correlation value between GPA and Math ACT Scores and GPA and Composition ACT

Scores, I would still include those factors in our assessment. If you can not read and write
or do Math, you will have a hard time getting through college. So, I would consider
students who have a GPA of 3.0, English ACT Scores of 22, Math ACT scores of 22, and
Composite ACT scores of 22 or higher as a general framework of admission in our
school. There is a summary of correlation values in Chart F of the Appendix.
Thank you and Merry Christmas.

Appendix
Graph A

Graph B

Chart C

Chart D

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Chart E

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Chart F: Summary of Correlation Values

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