CHNG I

T GI HI OI
Exchange rate
ThS. Nguyn Thu Trang
trannhatxu@gmail.com

T gi hi oi
Cc thut ng
Xc nh t gi theo phng php tnh cho (t gi cho)
S hnh thnh t gi
Phn loi t gi
Cc nhn t nh hng n t gi
Cc bin php iu chnh t gi

I - Cc thut ng
Ngoi hi
T gi hi oi

1. Ngoi hi
Ngoi hi l khi nim dng ch cc phng tin c
th dng tin hnh thanh ton quc t, bao gm:
Ngoi t
Cc phng tin thanh ton quc t ghi bng ngoi t
Cc phng tin tn dng (cc chng khon c gi) ghi
bng ngoi t
Vng, bc, kim cng, ngc trai, qu v cc kim loi
qu, him khc c dng lm tin t
Tin Vit Nam

Ngoi t (Foreign currency)

Ngoi t: tin ca nc khc lu thng trong mt nc.
Ngoi t gm 2 loi:
- Ngoi t tin mt: USD, GBP, Nhn dn t
- Ngoi t tn dng: ngoi t ghi trn ti khon m ti cc t

chc tn dng hoc ti chnh.

- Ngoi t tn dng:

Giy bo C hoc giy bo N ca t chc nm gi ti

khon
Lnh ca ch ti khon: sc, hi phiu Ngn hng, in
hoc th chuyn tin, th ngn hng, th tn dng du lch
Chin t trng tuyt i a s trong tng lng thanh
ton quc t
V sao???
?Loi tr c tin gi trong lu thng
?Tc thanh ton nhanh
?Chi ph chuyn tin thp

Cc phng tin thanh ton quc t ghi

bng ngoi t
Hi phiu (Bill of exchange): hi phiu i n
K phiu (Promissory Note): Hi phiu nhn n
Sc (cheque)
Th chuyn tin (Mail tranfer)
in chuyn tin (Telegraphic Tranfer)
Th tn dng (Credit card)
Th tn dng ngn hng (Bank letter of credit)

Cc phng tin tn dng (cc chng khon c

gi) ghi bng ngoi t
C phiu (Stock)
Tri phiu kho bc (Treasury Bill)
Tri phiu cng ty (Debenture)
Cng tri quc gia (Government loan)

Tin Vit Nam di cc hnh thc sau

y
Tin Vit Nam nc ngoi di mi hnh thc khi quay

li Vit Nam
Tin tn dng Vit Nam ghi tn ti khon ca ngi phi c
tr ti cc NHTM VN c quyn tham gia vo TTQT.
Tin Vit Nam c ngun gc ngoi t khc

2. T gi hi oi
T gi hi oi: l gi c ca mt n v tin t nc ny

th hin bng mt s tin t nc khc.

VD: 1USD = 20.920 VND
E = 20.920 VND/USD

T gi mua (bid) v t gi bn (ask)

T gia mua (bid) l ty gia m ti o ngn hng s mua

ngoi hi.
T gia bn (ask/offer) l ty gia m ti o ngn hng s
bn ngoi hi.
Ngn hng yt gia (quoting bank) l ngn hng thc
hin nim yt ty gia mua vo bn ra.
Ngn hng hi gia (asking bank) l ngn hng lin h vi
ngn hng yt gia hi gia.
VD: VND/USD = 20.920/20.970
= 20.920/70

 Spread = Ask Bid

Spread chnh l li nhun trc thu m Ngn hng thu

c
i vi 1 s loi tin c gi cao nh USD, GBP: T gi
ask ch cng b im (point). Hai ch s u sau du
phy c l s (figure), hai s sau gi l im

ng tin yt gi, ng tin nh gi

ng tin yt gi (commodity/base currency)
Biu hin gi ca mnh qua n v tin t khc
C s n v c nh bng 1
ng tin nh gi (term currency)
Phn nh gi ca tin t n v khc
C s n v thay i
VD: VND/USD = 20.920 USD: ng tin yt gi
VND: ng tin nh gi
???: USD/VND = 0.0000478

Yt gi trc tip v gin tip (direct or

indirect quotations)
Yt gia trc tip (Gia ni t ca 1
n b ngoi t)

Yt gia gin tip (gia ngoi t ca

mt n v ni t)

VND20.920/USD

USD0,0000478/VND

AUD0.9273/USD

USD1,0784/AUD

0,7717/$

$1,2950/

Hnh thc yt gia l trc tip hay gin tip phu

thuc vo u l nc yt gia (home country)

 Trong phm vi quc gia:

- Yt gi trc tip (direct quotation): ng tin yt gi l

ngoi t cn ng tin nh gi l ni t, khi gi ca mt
n v ngoi t s xc nh c ngay
- Yt gi gin tip (indirect quotation): ng tin yt gi l
ni t cn ng tin nh gi l ngoi t, khi mun bit
gi ca mt n v ngoi t phi ly nghch o ca t gi
c yt.
- Hu ht cc nc p dng yt gi trc tip, tr mt s
nc Anh, M, khi EU yt gi gin tip

Yt gia trc tip va gin tip

Xt t gc Vit Nam (home country)

Yt gia trc tip

VND 20.920/$

ng tin nh gia
(Commodity currency C)
Ngoi t l hng ha ($)
Ni t l tin t (VND)

Yt gia gin tip

$ 0,0000478/VND

ng tin yt gia
(Term/Base Currency T)
Ni t l hng ha (VND)
Ngoi t l tin t (USD)

II Xc nh t gi theo phng php tnh

cho
Xc nh TGHD ca 2 ng tin nh gi
Xc nh TGH ca 2 ng tin yt gi
Xc nh TGH ca 2 ng tin yt gi khc nhau

Cch xc nh TGH ca 2 ng tin

nh gi
VCB bo t gi:

VND/USD = 16.350/16.450
JPY/USD = 109,55/111,05
DN A xut khu thy sn sang Tokyo, thu v 1 triu JPY. DN bn JPY ly VND
thanh ton cc chi ph cho cng ty, theo t gi no?
Dn A

VCB

T gi ca NH

JPY
(bn)

USD (bn)

1USD =
111,05JPY

USD
(bn)

VND (bn)

1USD =
16350VND

JPY = 147,23 VND

F Nu Dn A nhp khu thy sn t Tokyo, cn 1 triu JPY tr cho nh xut khu
Nht, th Dn A phi mua JPY vi t gi no?

Tnh t gi cho
Cng thc 1: T gi cho ca 2 ng tin v tr nh gi

VND/USD = 16350/16450

JPY/USD = 109,55/111,05

VND/JPY = 147,23/150,16

Tnh t gi cho
Cng thc 2: T gi cho ca 2 ng tin v tr yt gi

VND/USD = 16350/16450

VND/EUR = 24250/24830

USD/EUR= 1,4742/1,5187

Tnh t gi cho
Cng thc 3: T gi cho ca 2 ng tin 2 v tr khc
nhau
VND/USD = 16350/16450

USD/GBP = 1,8932/1,9337

VND/GBP = 30954/31809

VD: Mt doanh nghip A vay NH c 500.000HKD

thanh ton tin hng nhp khu 1.000.000JPY sang Nht,
phn cn li chuyn sang EUR u t vo Php. Hy
tnh s EUR thu c? Bit rng t gi c cng b ti
HK nh sau:
JPY/USD = 105,40/108,40
HKD/USD = 7,7860/90
USD/EUR = 1,6120/40

III - S hnh thnh t gi

Ngang gi vng (Gold Parity)
Ch tin t Bretton Woods
Ngang gi sc mua (Purchasing Power Parity)

Ngang gi vng
Ngang gi vng l gi tr ca vng cc nc khc nhau l nh
nhau.
Ch bn v vng:
- Tin vng kim loi: cc ng tin c c bng vng v s
dng trong lu thng.
- Tin giy i ra vng: Chnh ph cc nc cam kt i trc
tip tin giy ra vng theo hm lng vng m ng tin i
din
T gi = t l hm lng vng thc t c trong 2 ng tin
VD: Trc nm 1914 i chin th gii th nht:
HLV ca 1GBP = 7,9880 gr
HLV ca 1 USD = 1,5047 gr
t gi GBP/USD = 7,9880/1,5047 = 5,3089

Ch tin t Bretton Woods (1944 1971)

- USD l ng tin duy nht c th chuyn i sang vng t l
35$/ounce vng <-> $1 = 0,888671gr vng
- Mi 1 quc gia thit lp mnh gi ng tin nc mnh so vi
USD da trn so snh hm lng vng v cam kt duy tr t gi
trao i dao ng trong bin 1% mnh gi
T gi = so snh HLV ca tin t cc nc vi HLV ca USD
VD: Sau i chin th gii ln th 2:
HLV ca 1 GBP = 2,488281gr
HLV ca 1 USD = 0,888671gr
=> t gi GBP/USD = 2,488281/0,888671 = 2,8

Quy lut mt gi (Law of One Price LoOP)

Trong iu kin khng tnh n cc chi ph giao dch, th
trng s iu chnh khin cho cc hng ha ging nhau
s c bn vi gi ging nhau d cc nc khc nhau.
VD: mt chic bnh hamburger:
(M): 1$
(Vit Nam): 15.000vnd

VND/USD = 15.000

Ngang gi sc mua tuyt i

Ngang gi sc mua tuyt i (trng thi tnh): biu hin
tng quan sc mua gia hai ng tin ti mt thi im
P*: Gi c r hng ho c bn M (tnh theo USD)
P: Gi c r hng ho c bn Vit Nam (tnh theo VND)
E: T gi

P
E=
P*

Ngang gi sc mua tng i

Ngang gi sc mua tng i (trng thi ng): Biu hin s
thay i ca PPP qua thi gian, dn n s thay i ca t gi
thng thng k hn l 1 nm.

Dng thc tuyt i:

E1 1+ d
=
E0 1+ f

Ngang gi sc mua tng i

Dng thc tng i (t l %)

E(%) = d f

Ngang gi sc mua
Nhc im ca PPP:

- Ch ph giao dch: vn ti, thu, thu quan, chi ph thng

tin
- Hng ha khng ng nht gia cc quc gia
- Mt s hng ha mang c tnh phi mu dch (non
tradable).
Vn c gi tr p dng trong thc t:
- Trong nghin cu
- Trong vic xc nh bench mark cho t gi

IV - Phn loi t gi
Cn c vo phng tin thanh ton
Cn c vo nghip v kinh doanh ca ngn hng
Cn c vo c ch qun l ngoi hi

Cn c vo phng tin thanh ton

T gi chuyn tin bng in: T gi in hi
T gi chuyn tin bng th: nh hn T gi in hi

V: Chi ph chuyn bng th r hn bng in

Thi gian chm hn
T gi sc = t gi in hi tin li pht sinh (t khi mua sc
n khi sc c tr tin)
T gi hi phiu tr ngay
T gi hi phiu tr chm = t gi in hi tin li pht sinh
(t lc NH bn hi phiu n lc HP c tr tin)
VD: DN A mua mt sc 1000USD ca VCB tr cho DN B
M. Li sut huy ng VND VCB l 6,3%. T gi in hi bn
ra ca VCB l USD/VND = 20.920. Thi gian chuyn sc t VN
sang M l 30 ngy. VCB phi bn sc vi gi l bao nhiu?

Cn c vo nghip v kinh doanh

T gi mua vo bn ra (Ask bid)
T gi ng ca m ca (Opening rate Closing rate)
T gi ngoi t tin mt v t gi ngoi t chuyn khon

T gi no cao hn?: T gi tin mt

V sao? Gim c chi ph lu thng tin mt
T gi giao ngay T gi k hn (Spot rate Forward
rate)
Spot rate: T gi p dng cho vic giao nhn ngoi t ti
thi im hin ti (T+2)
Forward rate: t gi p dng cho vic giao nhn ngoi t
ti thi im trong tng lai (T+x+2)

Cn c vo c ch qun l ngoi hi
T gi chnh thc T gi th trng
T gi c bn T gi u i (c ch a t gi)

Cc nhn t nh hng n t gi
Chnh lch lm pht
Chnh lch li sut
Cung, cu trn th trng

Chnh lch lm pht

p dng PPP tng i
=
=
<0 <0 ,
>0>0 ,
=0=0,
VD: u nm 2008 t gi USD/VND = 16.020. Lm pht ti
VN l 8,4%; ti M l 3,4%. D on TGHD USD/VND u
nm 2009 l bao nhiu?
=0.0840,034=0,05
2009=16020(1+0,05)=16821

Chnh lch li sut

1

1+

1+

IRP: Interest Rate Parity

1+=(1+)/ (1)
(1+)/
Nu (1) khng cn bng:

1+<(1+)/

$
1/S

1+

$
(1+)/

tn ti c hi kinh doanh chnh

lch li sut
Nhng c hi tn ti khng lu v
IRP s nhanh chng khi phc:

, ,,

Chnh lch li sut

p dng ngang gi li sut (IRP)

VD: Li sut Vn l 8%, li sut M l 3% => E(S) 5% VND

k vng l xung gi 5% so vi USD
Trn thc t, bin ng t gi khng lun tun theo hc thuyt
IRP. ng tin ca nhng nc c li sut cao c xu hng
tng gi trong di hn.

Cung cu th trng
Tnh trng ca cn cn thanh ton quc t
Nu d tha (surplus) => Cung ngoi t trong ngn hn c
xu hng tng ln + cu ngoi hi c xu hng n nh =>
ng ngoi t => TGH n nh hoc gim xung
Nu thiu ht (deficit) => cu ngoi t trong ngn hn c xu
hng tng ln + cung ngoi t c xu hng n nh =>
ng ngoi t => TGH tng ln

Cung cu th trng
Thu nhp thc t GDP tnh theo u ngi
GDP tng dn ti:
Nhu cu nhp khu my mc, thit b tng
Nhu cu u t ni a tng
Nhu cu v tiu dng hng ha v dch v nhp khu tng
Cu v ngoi hi trong ngn hn c xu hng tng
Ngoi t => THH c xu hng tng ln
GDP gim xung:

Cc nhu cu nhp khu my mc, thit b, dch v gim mnh

trong khi xut khu vn phi c duy tr
Xung ngoi hi c xu hng tng ln + cu ngoi hi gim
xung
Ngoi t => TGH c xu hng gim xung

Cung cu th trng
Cc yu t mang tnh cht chnh sch, bin php, tm l
Chnh sch qun l xut nhp khu nh quota, hn
ngch, chnh sch thu quan, giy php xut nhp
khu
Lng tin ca cng chng vo t gi
Tnh trng u c tin t

Cc bin php iu chnh t gi

Chnh sch chit khu
Nghip v th trng m
Ph gi tin t
Tng gi tin t

Chnh sch chit khu

Khi nim

L chnh sch ca NHTW thay i li sut chit khu cc

giy t c gi iu chnh TGH trn th trng.
Tc dng:
- Chit khu thp => li sut thc => ni t xung gi,
ngoi t ln gi
- Chit khu cao => li sut thc => ni l ln gi, ngoi
t xung gi
iu kin thc hin
C h thng ngn hng 2 cp
C th trng lin ngn hng
C th trng cc cng c chuyn nhng pht trin

Chnh sch th trng m

Khi nim

L chnh sch NHTW hoc cc c quan qun l ngoi hi ca

Nh nc dng nghip v trc tip mua bn ngoi hi trn th
trng iu chnh t gi.
Tc dng
- Bn ra giy t c gi Mua vo ngoi t: ng ni t ,
ng ngoi t .
- Mua vo giy t c gi Bn ra ngoi t: ng ni t ,
ng ngoi t .
iu kin thc hin
C qu d tr ngoi hi quc gia ln tc ng trc
tip vo th trng.
C th trng ngoi hi t do

Ph gi tin t
Khi nim

L s nh tt gi ca ni t so vi ngoi t thp hn sc mua

ca n.
Tc dng
- Khuyn khch nhp khu vn, kiu hi, hn ch xut khu vn.
- Khuyn khch xut khu hng ha, dch v
- Tc ot mt phn gi tr thc t ca nhng ngi nm
ng tin b ph gi.
iu kin thc hin
- Thc hin b mt
- Phi c sn hng ha d tr phc v xut khu
- C mi trng u t thun li
- C gii php cho cc i tng chu thit hi t ph gi (cc
nh xut khu)

Nng gi tin t
Khi nim

L vic nng gi ca ni t so vi ngoi t cao hn sc

mua thc ca n.
Tc dng
- Hn ch xut khu, khuyn khch nhp khu hng ha v
dch v
- Hn ch nhp khu vn, khuyn khch xut khu vn1