ALBERTA

[FEBRUARY 2016 A]

METHODOLOGY
Mainstreet surveyed a random sample of 3,092 Alberta residents by Smart IVR on February 3rd,
2016. A mixture of landlines and cell phones were surveyed. Margin of error: +/- 1.76%, 19 times out
of 20. Regional margins of error: Calgary: +/- 3.09%; Edmonton: +/- 2.98%; Rest of Alberta:
+/- 3.09%; 19 times out of 20. Results were weighed by age, gender and geography based
on the 2011 Census.

A2
"Exclusive Mainstreet/Postmedia polls are protected by copyright.
The information and/or data may only be rebroadcast or republished
with full and proper credit and attribution to Mainstreet/Postmedia.

ALBERTANS LESS CONFIDENT ENERGY EAST WILL BE BUILT

February 5th, 2016 (Toronto, ON) A new Mainstreet/Postmedia poll nds most Albertans believe
the Energy East pipeline will be built - but that number has dropped. The Mainstreet/Postmedia
Poll has a margin of error of +/- 1.76%, 19 times out of 20.
Weve heard a lot about the Energy East pipeline lately said Quito Maggi, President of Mainstreet
Research. A majority of Albertans believe the pipeline will be built but that number has dropped
from our last poll. At the same time condence in the provincial economy steadily dropped
throughout 2015, we saw Albertans become more and more pessimistic. There is a glass half full
argument to be made here when it comes to the expectations about Energy East.
In October 2015, 63% of Albertans were condent the Energy East pipeline would be built,
regardless of whether they approved or disapproved of it. Now that number is 56% (-7%). 18% of
Albertans say the pipeline wont be built (+4%) while another 26% arent sure (+2%).
When we asked if the provincial and federal governments were doing enough on pipelines we got
a very decisive answer: no. 51% say the province isnt doing enough and a whopping 68% say the
federal government isnt doing enough.
When asked about new federal criteria for pipelines Albertans are mostly in favour. 39% approve
while 32% disapprove. Another 30% arent sure.
People will be looking to see what the end result of the new federal criteria will be. As to whether
the Energy East pipeline will actually be built, only time will tell, nished Maggi.
About Mainstreet Research
Mainstreet is a national public research rm. With 20 years of political experience at all three levels
of government, President and CEO Quito Maggi is a respected commentator on Canadian public
aairs.
Dierentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet Research has provided accurate snapshots of
public opinion, having predicted a majority NDP government in Alberta, a majority Liberal
government in British Columbia and a majority Liberal government in Ontario. Mainstreet has been
the most accurate polling rm in several by elections and the most recent Toronto mayoral
election. Most recently, Mainstreet was the only polling rm to correctly predict a Liberal majority
government in the 2015 federal election.
-30Available for Interview from Toronto: Quito Maggi, quito@mainstreetresearch.ca
For more information: David Valentin, (613) 698-5524 - david@mainstreetresearch.ca

A3

Present
YES: 56%

YES
NO
NOT SURE
YES
NO
NOT SURE

24%

14%

63%

26%

18%

56%

Regardless of your approval or disapproval, do you think the Energy East Pipeline will be built or not?

October 2015
NO: 18%

NOT SURE: 26%

18-34
64%
13%
23%

35-49
53%
21%
26%

Edmonton
53%
21%
26%

50-64
52%
23%
25%
Calgary
62%
12%
26%

65+ Male Female

49% 60% 52%
18% 20%
16%
33% 20%
32%
Rest of Alberta
54%
20%
26%

A4

Is the provincial government doing enough to get new pipelines approved?

24%

25%

51%

YES: 24%
YES
NO
NOT SURE
YES
NO
NOT SURE

NOT SURE: 25%

NO: 51%
18-34
28%
43%
28%

35-49
19%
59%
22%

Edmonton
44%
32%
24%

50-64
25%
56%
18%
Calgary
21%
48%
31%

65+ Male Female

20% 26%
22%
42% 53%
49%
37% 21%
29%
Rest of Alberta
19%
58%
23%

A5

Is the federal government doing enough to get new pipelines approved?

12%
19%

68%

YES: 12%
YES
NO
NOT SURE
YES
NO
NOT SURE

NOT SURE: 19%

NO: 68%
18-34
13%
63%
25%

35-49
13%
75%
11%

Edmonton
23%
54%
23%

50-64
14%
69%
17%
Calgary
12%
65%
23%

65+
8%
65%
27%

Male Female
13%
11%
70%
67%
17%
22%
Rest of Alberta
9%
74%
17%

A6

The federal government has recently introduced new criteria to evaluate new or expanded oil and gas pipelines.
From everything you have seen, heard or read, do you approve or disapprove of the new criteria?

30%

39%

32%
TOTAL APPROVAL: 39%
STRONGLY APPROVE
SOMEWHAT APPROVE
SOMEWHAT DISAPPROVE
STRONGLY DISAPPROVE
NOT SURE
STRONGLY APPROVE
SOMEWHAT APPROVE
SOMEWHAT DISAPPROVE
STRONGLY DISAPPROVE
NOT SURE

TOTAL DISAPPROVAL: 32%

18-34
10%
33%
19%
7%
30%

35-49
10%
25%
18%
15%
33%

Edmonton
21%
25%
9%
9%
36%

50-64
14%
24%
20%
15%
28%
Calgary
12%
18%
36%
12%
21%

NOT SURE: 30%

65+
10%
31%
23%
8%
27%

Male Female
12%
10%
26%
29%
20%
19%
14%
9%
27%
33%
Rest of Alberta
8%
33%
16%
12%
32%

A6

Regardless of your approval or disapproval, do you think the Energy East Pipeline will be built or not?
Yes
No
Not Sure
Is the provincial government doing enough to get new pipelines approved?
Yes
No
Not Sure
Is the federal government doing enough to get new pipelines approved?
Yes
No
Not Sure
The federal government has recently introduced new criteria to evaluate new or expanded oil and gas
pipelines. From everything you have seen, heard or read, do you approve or disapprove of the new
criteria?
Strongly Approve
Somewhat Approve
Somewhat Disapprove
Strongly Disapprove
Not Sure

ONLY WE
CALLED
THE
LIBERAL
MAJORITY.

I recommend "Raiders of the Lost Campaign Arc," released Oct. 18, because its an interview
with a pollster that everyone who follows politics should hear. Quito Maggi, of Mainstreet Public
Research, was the only pollster I saw call the Liberal majority with such condence, a week
before we voted.
Maggi also has the distinction of being the guy who predicted the BC Liberals would win in 2013,
in deance of the majority of the polls.
His technique involves picking a true bellwether riding and polling it thoroughly. His explanation
for how he does it is well worth a listen and should be required research for anyone running a
political campaign. - Shannon Rupp, The Tyee, November 4th, 2015
Mainstreet Research | 1322255B Queen Street East
| Toronto | Ontario | M4E 1G3 | Canada

Mainstreet is a national public research rm. With 20 years of political experience at all three
levels of government, President and CEO Quito Maggi is a respected commentator on Canadian
public aairs.
Dierentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet Research has provided accurate snapshots of
public opinion, having predicted a majority NDP government in Alberta, a majority Liberal
government in British Columbia and a majority Liberal government in Ontario. Mainstreet has
been the most accurate polling rm in several by elections and the most recent Toronto mayoral
election. Most recently, Mainstreet was the only polling rm to correctly predict a Liberal majority
government in the 2015 federal election.

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