NBC News|SurveyMonkey Weekly Election Tracking Poll

Embargoed for release Tuesday, February 16, 2016 at 6:00AM
The NBC News|SurveyMonkey Weekly Election Tracking Poll tracks voter preferences and attitudes on a weekly basis throughout
the 2016 election cycle. Results are released every Tuesday at 6:00AM and are among registered voters.
Results for the week of February 8, 2016 through February 14, 2016 are among a national sample of 13,129 adults aged 18 and over,
including 11,417 registered voters (+/- 1.1%), 3,411 registered Republican voters (+/- 2.1%) and 3,847 registered Democratic voters
(+/-1.8%). Complete error estimates can be found in the methodology section below.
TOPLINE RESULTS
Which one of the following issues matters MOST to you right now?

2/8 – 2/14
2/1 – 2/7
1/25 – 1/31
1/18 – 1/24
1/11 – 1/17
1/4 – 1/10
12/28-1/3

Foreign
Policy
4
5
5
4
5
5
6

The
environment
8
9
9
8
8
8
8

Terrorism
16
15
17
19
21
23
23

Immigration
8
7
8
7
8
8
8

Health
care
14
16
13
15
13
13
14

Jobs and the
Economy
34
32
32
33
29
28
27

Education
10
10
10
10
10
8
9

Other
5
5
5
5
4
5
5

No
answer
1
1
1
1
1

Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as president?

2/8 – 2/14
2/1 – 2/7
1/25 – 1/31
1/18 – 1/24
1/11 – 1/17
1/4 – 1/10
12/28 – 1/3

Strongly approve
26
27
25
26
26
23
23

Somewhat approve
24
23
22
24
22
22
25

Somewhat disapprove
12
12
12
14
12
12
12

Strongly disapprove
38
38
40
36
40
42
40

No answer
1
1
1
1
1
1

Over the past week, did you follow news about candidates for the 2016 presidential election:

2/8 – 2/14
2/1 – 2/7
1/25 – 1/31
1/18 – 1/24
1/11 – 1/17
1/4 – 1/10
12/28 – 1/3

Extremely Closely
18
18
16
12
13
13
13

Very closely
29
30
27
24
26
26
23

Somewhat closely
35
34
36
38
38
37
37

Not so closely
12
12
14
16
15
17
17

Not at all closely
6
6
7
9
8
8
9

No answer
1
1
1
1
-

1

In politics today, do you consider yourself a Republican, Democrat, or Independent?

2/8 – 2/14
2/1 – 2/7
1/25 – 1/31
1/18 – 1/24
1/11 – 1/17
1/4 – 1/10
12/28 – 1/3

Republican
30
30
31
28
31
33
30

Democrat
35
35
34
34
34
32
34

Independent
33
33
33
36
33
34
34

No answer
2
2
2
1
2
2
2

As of today, do you lean more to the Republican Party or more to the Democratic Party? [AMONG IND OR DON’T KNOW FOR
PARTY]

2/8 – 2/14
2/1 – 2/7
1/25 – 1/31
1/18 – 1/24
1/11 – 1/17
1/4 – 1/10
12/28 – 1/3

Republican
Party
34
35
34
33
36
36
37

Democratic
Party
28
30
26
27
26
26
24

Neither
35
33
37
39
37
36
37

No answer
3
2
3
2
2
1
1

If the 2016 Republican presidential primary or caucus in your state were being held today, for whom would you vote? [AMONG
REP & REP LEANERS]

2/8 – 2/14
2/1 – 2/7
1/25 – 1/31
1/18 – 1/24
1/11 – 1/17
1/4 – 1/10
12/28 – 1/3

Jeb
Bush
4
3
3
4
4
3
6

Ben
Carson
8
7
7
8
8
9
9

Chris
Christie
2
3
3
3
3
3
4

Ted
Cruz
18
20
20
17
21
20
18

Carly
Fiorina
1
2
2
2
3
2
3

Jim
Gilmore
-

Mike
Huckabee
2
1
2
2
2

John
Kasich
7
3
3
3
2
2
2

Rand
Paul
2
3
3
3
3
2

Marco
Rubio
14
17
12
10
11
11
13

Rick
Santorum
1
1

Donald
Trump
38
35
39
39
38
38
35

Don’t
Know
6
5
4
9
5
5
5

No
answer
1
1
2
1
1
1
1

If the 2016 Democratic presidential primary or caucus in your state were being held today, for whom would you vote? [AMONG
DEM & DEM LEANERS]

2/8 – 2/14
2/1 – 2/7
1/25 – 1/31
1/18 – 1/24
1/11 – 1/17
1/4 – 1/10
12/28 – 1/3

Hillary Clinton

Martin O’Malley

Bernie Sanders

Don’t know

No answer

50
51
50
51
52
52
53

1
2
2
1
2
2

40
39
39
37
36
37
36

9
8
8
9
9
8
8

1
1
1
1
2
1
1

2

And what are the chances that you will vote for the candidate you just selected in the Republican primary or caucus in your state?
[AMONG REP & REP LEANERS WHO CHOSE A CANDIDATE]
Absolutely certain I will
vote for this candidate

Large chance I’ll vote
for the candidate

50-50 chance I’ll vote
for the candidate

Small chance I’ll vote
for the candidate

No
answer

42
41
43
37
40
40
38

38
40
37
40
39
39
40

16
15
17
20
19
18
20

3
4
2
2
2
2
3

1
-

2/8 – 2/14
2/1 – 2/7
1/25 – 1/31
1/18 – 1/24
1/11 – 1/17
1/4 – 1/10
12/28 – 1/3

And what are the chances that you will vote for the candidate you just selected in the Democratic primary or
caucus in your state? [AMONG DEM & DEM LEANERS WHO CHOSE A CANDIDATE]
Absolutely certain I will
vote for this candidate

Large chance I’ll vote
for the candidate

50-50 chance I’ll vote
for the candidate

Small chance I’ll vote
for the candidate

No
answer

55
55
52
49
50
51
48

28
28
31
32
32
31
33

14
13
14
16
15
15
15

2
3
2
3
2
3
3

1
1
1
1
1

2/8 – 2/14
2/1 – 2/7
1/25 – 1/31
1/18 – 1/24
1/11 – 1/17
1/4 – 1/10
12/28 – 1/3

Regardless of whom you support, who do you think will win the Republican nomination for president in 2016?
[AMONG REP & REP LEANERS]

2/8 – 2/14
2/1- 2/7
1/25 – 1/31
12/28 – 1/3

Jeb
Bush
3
2
3
5

Ben
Carson
2
2
2
5

Chris
Christie
1
1
2

Ted
Cruz
22
31
21
22

Carly
Fiorina
-

Jim
Gilmore
-

Mike
Huckabee
-

John
Kasich
2
1
1
1

Rand
Paul
-

Marco
Rubio
10
18
8
11

Rick
Santorum
-

Donald
Trump
56
42
62
49

No
answer
4
3
2
5

Regardless of whom you support, who do you think will win the Democratic nomination for president in 2016?
[AMONG DEM & DEM LEANERS]

2/8 -2/14
2/1 – 2/7
1/25 – 1/31
12/28 – 1/3

Hillary Clinton

Martin O’Malley

Bernie Sanders

No answer

66
71
72
77

1
2

32
27
25
19

2
2
2
2

3

People experience and participate in the ongoing election campaigns in various ways. Thinking carefully, which
of the following applies to you over the past week? (Select all that apply.)

Donated
money to
a political
party or
candidate

Worked/
volunteered
for a
political
party or
candidate

Talked to
someone
about a
political
party or
candidate

Posted on
social
media (e.g.
Facebook,
Twitter)
about a
candidate

Saw an
advertisement
about a
candidate on
the internet

Attended a
political
rally or
event for a
party or
candidate

I did not
do, see, or
receive
anything
from a
party or
candidate

Received
a phone
call from
a political
campaign

Received
a piece of
mail from
a political
campaign

Received
an email
from a
political
campaign

Received
a house
visit from
a political
campaign

2/8-2/14

8

2

52

21

11

22

28

2

51

39

3

17

1/18 – 1/24

7

2

45

18

9

18

24

1

43

35

3

22

1/11 – 1/17

8

2

48

19

9

20

26

1

44

36

3

20

1/4 – 1/10

7

2

48

18

11

22

27

2

47

36

3

20

12/28 -1/3

7

2

46

17

11

24

28

2

48

37

3

18

Saw an
advertisement
about a
candidate on
television

4

METHODOLOGY
The NBC News|SurveyMonkey Weekly Election Tracking data for the week of February 8, 2016 through February 14, 2016 was
conducted online among a national sample of among a national sample of 13,129 adults aged 18 and over, including 11,417 who say
they are registered to vote. Respondents for this survey were selected from the nearly three million people who take surveys on the
SurveyMonkey platform each day. Data for this week has been weighted for age, race, sex, education, region, and voter registration
status using the Census Bureau and Bureau of Labor Statistic’s Current Population Survey to reflect the demographic composition of
the United States.
Because the sample is based on those who initially self-selected for participation rather than a probability sample, no estimates of
sampling error can be calculated. All surveys may be subject to multiple sources of error, including, but not limited to sampling error,
coverage error, and measurement error.
To assess the variability in the estimates and account for design effects, we create a bootstrap confidence interval to produce an
error estimate. The bootstrap confidence interval for this survey is plus or minus 1.1 percentage points for the full sample and plus
or minus 1.1 percentage points for registered voters.
To calculate the bootstrap confidence interval we use the weighted data to generate 5000 independent samples and calculate the
95% confidence intervals for the weighted average. When analyzing the survey results and their accuracy, this error estimate should
be taken into consideration in much the same way that analysis of probability polls takes into account the margin of sampling error.
Group

Unweighted N

Plus or minus

Total sample
Total RVs

13,129
11,417

1.1
1.1

Republican RVs
Democrat RVs

3,411
3,847

2.1
1.8

18-24
25-34
35-44
45-54
55-64
65+

1,066
1,634
1,970
2,884
3,284
2,291

3.6
3.0
2.7
2.2
2.1
2.5

White
Black
Hispanic
Other

9,713
1,248
1,144
1,024

1.2
3.2
3.5
3.8

Clinton voters
Sanders voters
Trump voters
Cruz voters
Rubio voters

2,858
2,463
1,818
986
872

2.2
2.4
2.8
3.8
4.3

5