eT DRAFT FOR CCSP DISCUSSION AND COMMENTS Tex skate mabeh TO: OSTP/OMB vee FROM: James R. Mahoney, . 4, For CORI plore} SUBJECT: CSP FY 2005 Pires / Ths & © p DATE: XX Apri 2003 Based upon the development of a new strategic plan this year, the Climate Change Science Program (CCSP) agencies will focus their FY 2005 budget planning on priority topics based on advances achieved through ongoing efforts under the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) and the Climate Change Research Initiative (CCRD. Following the FY 2004 program review, we believe the current program represents a high-priority selection of activities that merit continued support at approximately the same funding levels. These programs have provided the foundation for our understanding, of climate and global change and continue to reflect priority research needs identified by the relevant research communities. ‘There are four areas where we recommend funding increases to accelerate the delivery of science-based information in support of decision making on climate change science issues: (1) reducing limitations on climate models; (2) continuing the design and implementation of an integrated, sustained climate observing system, incorporating both climate and ecosystem parameters; (3) providing an improved research and observational basis for ecosystem and human impacts analyses; and (4) enhancing decision support resources. Specific focal points for climate and atmospheric composition modeling should include: (1) water vapor, clouds, and precipitation processes in Global Climate Models (GCMs); (2) incorporation of improved knowledge of aerosol effects into GCMs; (3) development and implementation of the full three-dimensional circulation of the ocean; (4) development of projections of land use/cover changes and incorporation of those projections into GCMs; (5) development and rigorous testing of carbon cycle models; and (6) use of GCMs to substantially refine (quantify) estimates of climate feedback processes. All of these modeling efforts require a substantial increase in computer city as well as human capital. A critical CCSP priority for FY 2005 will be to increase U.S. computing capacity for climate modeling. The CSP will continue to focus on the development of a comprehensive climate observing system in the FY 2005 budget, building on the work begun in FY 2003 and FY 2004, Priorities for observations will address the development of elements for an integrated end-to-end observing system and include: 1) organizing ocean and atmosphere measurements into a prototype end-to-end system for observing the physical climate, including: 8, completing the basic elements of the in situ observing system in the atmosphere and oceans, including support for networks in developing, . Sele Cot CEQ 01258DRAFT FOR CCSP DISCUSSION AND COMMENTS 4116/20 countries that will provide maximum benefit to the existing satellite capabilities, b. constructing an effective interagency atmosphere and ocean data management system; and c. developing an interagency approach to efficiently manage the in situ and satellite components as an end-to-end system, 2) developing new observing capabilities to detect climate influences on ecosystems and include these elements into the system described above; 3) continuing development of sustained observations of key land variables, 4) integrating U.S. efforts with international partners utilizing the Earth Observation Summit and other international coordination activities; and 5) initiating an iterative program of retrospective reanalyses of climate data based upon data assimilation into models in order to assess the changes in the climate system during the 20" century. Priority areas for ecosystem and humnan impacts research include: (1) effects of interactions of multiple environmental factors (¢.g., warming, increasing CO2 and Os, and altered hydrology) on ecosystems; (2) spread of invasive species related to changes in land use, climate, and atmospheric composition; (3) quantification of effects of climate variability and change on water supply and quality; (4) ecosystems models that incorporate multiple interacting effects; (5) potential changes in disease vectors and ‘human health; and (6) focused observations and climate system modeling on the influence of Arctic warming on ecosystems. Specific needs for enhanced decision support resources are 1) the design, development, and implementation of “if related to national decision making; 2) development of resources to support enhanced stakeholder interactions in regional and sectoral decision making, principally utilizing data and observations; and 3) development of methods for decision making under conditions of uncertainty, including methods for: ‘a, representing, analyzing, describing, and communicating uncertainty; ’b. projecting costs and/or benefits associated with climate variability and change; and ¢. communicating climate information for use in decision making. then...” scenario analyses CEQ 012590Draft Agenda for Meeting of Climate Principals CCSP Stratevie Plan (1) CSP needs to prepare a Decision Memo for Principals for !WGCCST (blue box) seeking guidance about high-level program objectives and funding levels: * What is overall budget guidance, i., $1.75 billion as in FY2004, ot higher/lower? + Will ageney budgets be protected or will some agencies’ budgets increase at the expense of other agencies? ‘© What is optimum allocation between the 3 care objectives of bi global observation infrastructure, and decision support tools? + What is the plan to do the next seientifie assessment, i.c., how to respond to Section 106, entitled "Scientific Assessment", of the Global Change Research Act of 1990? Will the plan emphasize observation-driven (empirical) predictions or model-driven predictions? jc climate research, (2) Review Process. In the present plan to develop the Strategic Plan, EOP does not make a .. EOP must have the final review of the Strategie Plan. separate revie CCSP/SGCR Management (1) Create leadership positions for a deputy director to support Jim Mahoney © Most, if not all, CENR Subcommittees have more than a single leader. * CCTP has a 100% director and a 50% deputy director. (2) On sensitive issues, EOP should be involved in the CCSP decision-making process in advance of the CSP Principals, and EOP must have final clearance. (3) Exclusion of CEQ, OMB and OSTP from the CCSP Principals Meeting on Wednesday, April 16, is highly detrimental to the openness of the climate change science program. (4) National Assessment. The April 9th CCSP distribution of the NOAA response to Congress about the FY2003 $12 million hold back and the National Assessment should have been discussed with EOP before distribution to the CCSP Principals because of EOP heavy involvement in this sensitive subject. Also, the development of NOAA's response to Congress. about the National Assessment should be an interagency process because the National Assessment is an interagency activity. EY2004 CCRI (S18! Program (1) FYI Re: Process to develop the CCRI FY2004 Program, © Dering June, July and August 2002, Jim Mahoney conducted a CCSP review of cach agency's climate program, establishing an inventory of the $1.7 billion USGCRP and CCRI expenditures, called "direct" expenditures, and $1.3 billion "related" expenditures. CEQ 012591‘* In August and September 2002, the CCSP Principals decided that CCRT would have three core objectives: basic research. decision support, observations. + In September-October 2002, Mahoney asked each agency what to include in CCRI for FY2004. The compilation was reviewed by CCSP. The compilation became the CCR! FY2004 ($185 million) Program, © CCRI FY2004 Program was published in March 2003 without SGCR/CENR review because, technically, CCRI is independent of USGCRP. The oversight of USGCRP is SGCR/CENR. FYI: CCSP = USGCRP + CCRI. (2) The CCRI FY2004 budget allocation # basic research, $35 million © climate observations, $70 million * decision support, $80 million had not been vetted by the IWGCCST (blue box), whereas the overall CCSP FY2003 budget was vetted by the gray box (and, presumably, by the blue box). Earth Observation. (1) Public release of Prospectus and Declaration in the DOC/DOE invitation letter before USG review may present difficulties. A draft version of the Declaration contains the following language “The exchange of observations recorded from in situ, aircraft, and satellite networks in 1 full and open manner with minimum time delay and minimum cost”. This item may not be consistent with the Farm Bill, which prohibits USDA from releasing data on soil properties collected for soil surveys. Also, the U.S. military and associated agencies record a voluminous quantity of environmental data that are not released to the public in a timely manner, €.8., submarine measurements of ice thickness in the Arctic Ocean collected during the Cold War have only recently been released and without details of where some measurements were recorded. Co-Chairs of the Task Group on Earth Observations have been advised to follow the NSTC clearance procedure for public release of documents (e.g,, prospectus and declaration) prepared by the Task Group. (2) Budget implications of the Summit Declaration have not been discussed CEQ 012592