UNCERTAINTY & APPREHENSIVE UNEASINESS

Sentiment Takes on a Tone of Worry

Gordon T Long
2/17/2016

FEBRUARY 2016 Edition

1

Copyright 2016 GordonTLong.com

Restricted
All Rights Reserved

general@GordonTLong.com

UNCERTAINTY & APPREHENSIVE UNEASINESS

Sentiment Takes on a Tone of Worry
FEBRUARY MONTHLY MARKET COMMENTARY
MARKET MESSAGE ................................................................................................................................. 3
I DEFINING CHARTS ..................................................................................................................................................................14
Defining Chart #3 - The Big M and Super Cycle b .................................................................................................................... 15
Defining Chart #4 Intermediate Term Topping Process ............................................................................................................. 16
The Bottom Line .............................................................................................................................................................................. 19
II TARGETS .................................................................................................................................................................................21
III QUARTERLY SENTIMENT RISK AND FUNDAMENTALS ..................................................................................................25
SENTIMENT ........................................................................................................................................................................................ 25
NEW-RISK ANALYSIS - Complacency .......................................................................................................................................... 30
NEW-FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS Valuation Summary ............................................................................................................ 31
IV STUDIES..................................................................................................................................................................................32
Q4 EARNINGS Earnings Recession ........................................................................................................................................32
STUDY: Q4 EARNINGS -...............................................................................................................................................................32
CHARTS OF NOTE ............................................................................................................................................................................ 32
STUDY: 2016 EARNINGS - ...........................................................................................................................................................34
CHARTS OF NOTE ............................................................................................................................................................................ 34
STUDY: CREDIT CYCLE - UPDATE ............................................................................................................................................37
CHARTS OF NOTE ............................................................................................................................................................................ 37
STUDY: BUYBACKS .....................................................................................................................................................................45
CHARTS OF NOTE ............................................................................................................................................................................ 45
V - TRIGGER$ ZONES ...................................................................................................................................................................49
VI - DRIVER$ & BIA$ .....................................................................................................................................................................50

UNCERTAINTY & APPREHENSIVE UNEASINESS SENTIMENT TAKES ON A TONE OF WORRY ............................ 51

GFC Problems Only Got Worse! .................................................................................................................................................51
Endless Indicators of Serious Problems in 2016 ............................................................................................................................ 51
FINANCIAL MARKETS Heightened Nervousness .................................................................................................................53
Global Equity Markets ........................................................................................................................................................................ 53
Global Bond Markets .......................................................................................................................................................................... 58
ENERGY SECTOR Collapsing Revenue and Collateral ........................................................................................................59
CHINA Collapsing Trade and Commodity Super Cycle ........................................................................................................62
Collapsing Trade ................................................................................................................................................................................. 64
CREDIT CYCLE Has Turned .....................................................................................................................................................65
HY Upgrade-to-Downgrade Ratio ..................................................................................................................................................... 66
GLOBALIZATION TRAP REVISITED .............................................................................................................................................. 66
GLOBAL PROBLEM Globalization Trap..................................................................................................................................67

FEBRUARY 2016 Edition

Copyright 2016 GordonTLong.com

Restricted
All Rights Reserved

general@GordonTLong.com