Академический Документы
Профессиональный Документы
Культура Документы
Economy
Finding Shelter: Assessing Texas Residential
Real Estate
February 12, 2016
Evan F. Koenig
Driving Forces
Driving Forces:
Comments
Unfavorable demographics
o Slow growth in the working-age population limits sustainable output
and job growth, and raises concerns about long-term govt finances
Driving Forces:
Comments
Unfavorable demographics
o Slow growth in the working-age population limits sustainable output
and job growth, and raises concerns about long-term govt finances
Driving Forces:
Comments
Unfavorable demographics
o Slow growth in the working-age population limits sustainable output
and job growth, and raises concerns about long-term govt finances
A strong dollar
o Reflects relative strength of the U.S. economy and prospects for
relatively high risk-adjusted returns on U.S. investments
o Encourages U.S. consumption of foreign-produced goods at the
expense of U.S.-produced goods
Driving Forces:
Comments
Unfavorable demographics
o Slow growth in the working-age population limits sustainable output
and job growth, and raises concerns about long-term govt finances
A strong dollar
o Reflects relative strength of the U.S. economy and prospects for
relatively high risk-adjusted returns on U.S. investments
o Encourages U.S. consumption of foreign-produced goods at the
expense of U.S.-produced goods
1982
130
125
1991
1975
120
2001
115
2009
110
105
100
3
4
Years into recovery
1982
120
115
1991
2009
2001
110
1975
105
100
3
4
Years into recovery
1975
1982
111
1991
107
2001
103
2009
99
3
4
Years into recovery
85
80
75
70
65
60
55
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
20 64 years old
3.5
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.2
1.2
1.0
Average = 1.4
0.6
0.5
-0.5
-1.5
1975
1982
1991
2001
Avg.
2009
16 19 years old
20 64 years old
65 years and older
3.5
3.4
2.5
2.5
2.0
2.0
1.5
1.2
1.2
1.3
1.0
1.2 1.3
1.1
0.6
0.5
0.4
-0.5
-0.4
-1.5
1975
-1.4
1982
1991
2001
Avg.
2009
Dollars/Barrel
150
125
100
100
75
75
WTI,
spot price
50
50
Jan. 29
33.66
25
10
25
10
90
95
00
05
10
15
1/84
1/85
1/86
1/87
1/88
1/89
1/90
1/91
1/92
1/93
1/94
1/95
1/96
1/97
1/98
1/99
1/00
1/01
1/02
1/03
1/04
1/05
1/06
1/07
1/08
1/09
1/10
1/11
1/12
1/13
1/14
1/15
1/16
85
Dollars/Barrel
June 17, 14
150
106.95
125
75.9%
150
125
100
100
75
75
WTI,
spot price
73.4%
50
50
64.7%
61.3%
Jan. 29
33.66
25
10
25
10
90
95
00
05
10
15
1/84
1/85
1/86
1/87
1/88
1/89
1/90
1/91
1/92
1/93
1/94
1/95
1/96
1/97
1/98
1/99
1/00
1/01
1/02
1/03
1/04
1/05
1/06
1/07
1/08
1/09
1/10
1/11
1/12
1/13
1/14
1/15
1/16
85
160
Real broad trade-weighted
exchange value of the U.S. dollar
140
140
Jan.
119.37
120
120
100
100
90
90
90
'85
'90
'95
'00
'05
'10
'15
160
Real broad trade-weighted
exchange value of the U.S. dollar
140
140
17.9%
Jan.
119.37
120
120
100
100
90
90
90
'85
'90
'95
'00
'05
'10
'15
One reason for a stronger dollar: Emergingmarket growth prospects dimmed during 2015
Purchasing Managers Index,
50+ = expansion
60
55
Jan.
52.2
51.1
50
48.9
47.4
45
Mexico
40
India
35
30
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
7.6
Percentage points
-1.0
Q4
-0.40
1.8
Q4
2.6
-4.0
0.0
1.0
Five-year, five-year forward Treasury rate, less the federal funds rate
(shifted 8Q)
-9.8
2.0
-15.6
3.0
'85
'87
'89
'91
'93
'95
'97
'99
'01
'03
'05
'07
'09
'11
'13
'15
17
Percentage points
-1.0
Q4
-0.40
6
Q3
2.7
0.0
-4
-15
1.0
4Q growth in household net worth, less the federal funds rate
(shifted 2Q)
-25
2.0
-36
-47
3.0
'85
'87
'89
'91
'93
'95
'97
'99
'01
'03
'05
'07
'09
'11
'13
'15
The Fallout
2013:Q1 - 2014:Q2
1.9
2014:Q3 - 2015:Q4
1.6
0.6
0.6
0.1
0
-0.3
-0.1
-1
-2
Final demand
Personal
consumption
Residential
investment
Business fixed
investment
Government
Net exports
2013:Q1 - 2014:Q2
2.1
1.9
2014:Q3 - 2015:Q4
1.6
0.6
0.1
0.6
0.3
0
-0.3
-0.1
-1
-2
Final demand
Personal
consumption
Residential
investment
Business fixed
investment
Government
Net exports
2013:Q1 - 2014:Q2
2.1
1.9
2014:Q3 - 2015:Q4
1.6
0.6
0.1
0.3
0.6
0.3
0
-0.3
-0.1
-1
-2
Final demand
Personal
consumption
Residential
investment
Business fixed
investment
Government
Net exports
2013:Q1 - 2014:Q2
2.1
1.9
2014:Q3 - 2015:Q4
1.6
0.6
0.1
0.3
0.6
0.3
0.2
0
-0.3
-0.1
-1
-2
Final demand
Personal
consumption
Residential
investment
Business fixed
investment
Government
Net exports
2013:Q1 - 2014:Q2
2.1
1.9
2014:Q3 - 2015:Q4
1.6
0.6
0.1
0.3
0.6
0.3
0.2
0
-0.3
-1
-0.1
-0.5
-2
Final demand
Personal
consumption
Residential
investment
Business fixed
investment
Government
Net exports
2013:Q1 - 2014:Q2
2.3
2.1
1.9
2014:Q3 - 2015:Q4
1.6
0.6
0.1
0.3
0.6
0.3
0.2
0
-0.3
-1
-0.1
-0.5
-2
Final demand
Personal
consumption
Residential
investment
Business fixed
investment
Government
Net exports
ISM Non-Manufacturing
Jan.
53.5
55
50
48.2
ISM Manufacturing
45
40
35
30
'07
'08
'09
'10
'11
'12
'13
'14
'15
'16
ISM Non-Manufacturing
60
Jan.
53.5
55
50
48.2
ISM Manufacturing
45
40
35
30
'97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16
ISM Non-Manufacturing
60
Jan.
53.5
55
50
48.2
ISM Manufacturing
45
40
35
30
'97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16
250
236
220
200
174
150
100
179
193
151
125*
89
50
0
2010
2011
2012
2013
H1 H2
2014
H1 H2
2015
Jan.
2016
10
Unemployment rate
Jan.
4.9
4.9
4
'07
'08
'09
'10
'11
'12
'13
'14
'15
'16
10
U.S. unemployment rate, excluding major
oil-producing states
6
Major oil-producing states
unemployment rate
Dec.
5.0
4.7
4
'07
'08
'09
'10
'11
'12
'13
'14
'15
4
st release
Trimmed-mean PCE, 11st
rls
Dec.
1.7
1
0.6
0
-1
-2
'05
'06
'07
'08
'09
'10
'11
'12
'13
'14
'15
2.5
-1
-2
0.5
3.5
1.57
-0.5
Trimmed-mean
PCE inflation
1.71
-4
RPM
-5
5.5
Monetary
accommodation
Financial Leading
stress
index
5.7
8.5
9
Unemployment rate
(3-mo. moving avg.)
2.5
3
-0.5
3.5
-1
2.48
4.5
-1.5
7.5
3
Oil
shock
6.5
4.5
3.5
Yield Unemp.
jump
curve
1.5
0.5
4.5
-1
-3
-2
MPH
4-quarter real
GDP growth
Per capita GDP:
% of prior peak
1 0 2. 8
2.5
-1
-2
0.5
3.5
1.69
-0.5
Trimmed-mean
PCE inflation
0.62
-4
RPM
-5
5.5
Monetary
accommodation
Financial Leading
stress
index
5.0
8.5
9
Unemployment rate
(3-mo. moving avg.)
2.5
3
-0.5
3.5
-1
1.80
4.5
-1.5
7.5
3
Oil
shock
6.5
4.5
3.5
Yield Unemp.
jump
curve
1.5
0.5
4.5
-1
-3
-2
MPH
4-quarter real
GDP growth
Per capita GDP:
% of prior peak
1 0 2. 9
Summary
Accommodative Fed policy, a less-restrictive fiscal
policy, and a supply-driven plunge in energy prices
have boosted domestic demand.
But relatively soft growth prospects overseas and a
strong dollar have damped demand for our
manufactured goods.
The economy as a whole continues to grow, despite
challenges to certain sectors and regions.
The stability of trimmed-mean inflation suggests that
current low headline inflation is transitory.
So far, so good, but where do we go from here?
Looking Ahead
Terror attacks
Lehman failure
6
4
16:Q3
1.95
15:Q4
1.34
2
0
-2
2Q GDP growth
-4
-6
Real-time forecasts
-8
'00
'02
'04
'06
'08
'10
'12
'14
'16
The message from December FOMC: Monetarypolicy accommodation to be gradually scaled back
Percent/year
4.5
Federal funds rate
4.0
3.50
3.5
3.25
2.5
2.0
1.38
1.5
1.0
Q4
0.38
0.5
0.0
'12
'13
'14
'15
'16
'17
'18
Longer run
7.5
7.0
6.5
6.0
5.5
Q4
5.0
5.0
4.7
4.7
4.7
4.9
4.5
4.0
'12
'13
'14
'15
'16
'17
'18
Longer run
Unemployment rate
8.0
7.5
Koenig/Armen forecasts
7.0
6.5
6.0
5.5
Q4
5.0
5.0
4.7
4.5
4.6
4.7
4.7
4.4
4.4
4.9
4.6
4.0
'12
'13
'14
'15
'16
'17
'18
Longer run
2.0
2.0
1.9
1.5
1.6
1.0
Headline PCE
0.5
Q4
0.4
0.0
'12
'13
'14
'15
'16
'17
'18
2.0
2.0
2.0
1.7
1.5
1.9
1.6
1.0
Headline PCE
0.5
Q4
0.4
0.0
'12
'13
'14
'15
'16
'17
'18
Conclusions
Weve already reached policymakers estimate
of the full-employment unemployment rate.
Modest further unemployment declines are likely
during 2016.