Ryan Data & Research

2016 Primary Election

Early Voting Analysis
February 27, 2016
The following information is based on data collected from various counties around the state. It does not
include data from all counties, but the information provides a snapshot of a large portion of the states early
voters. The information includes voters through Friday, February 26th. Please note, the sample size for
voters in the 2016 Democratic Primary is significantly smaller than the sample size used for voters in the
2016 Republican Primary.

Early Voters By Previous Election History

2016 Republican Primary

2016 Democratic Primary

Voters with past GOP Primary history, but no previous DEM Primary
history
Voters who have voted in both partys primaries, but most
recently voted in a GOP Primary
Voters with past DEM Primary history, but no previous GOP
Primary history
Voters who have voted in both partys primaries, but most
recently voted in a DEM Primary
Voters with no Primary Election history (R or D), but have voted
in a General Election
Voters with no Primary Election history (R or D) or General
Election history

Republican

Democratic

60.5%

2.0%

10.2%

3.1%

5.0%

64.8%

0.6%

2.9%

18.8%

19.0%

4.9%

8.2%

Early Voters By Gender

2016 Republican Primary

2016 Democratic Primary

Male,
41.9%

Male,
49.1%
Female,
50.9%

Female,
58.1%

Early Voters By Age

30.0%
25.0%
20.0%
15.0%
10.0%
5.0%
0.0%
Under 20

20 to 29

30 to 39

40 to 49

50 to 59

60 to 69

70 to 79

80 to 89

90 and Up

Who is Voting Early in the 2016 Republican Primary?

(Select counties only)
The following is a breakdown of who has voted early in the Republican Primary based on their past
Primary and General Election History. (Example: In Harris County, 63.1% of the people who have voted
early are previous Republican Primary voters with no past Democrat Primary history.)

County

Previous R
Primary Voter
No Previous D
Primary
History

Previous
Mixed
Primary
Last Voted in
an R Primary

Previous D
Primary Voter
No Previous R
Primary
History

Previous
Mixed
Primary
Last Voted in
an D Primary

Previous Gen
Voter
No Previous R
or D Primary
History

No Previous
General or
Primary
History

HARRIS

63.1%

8.2%

4.7%

0.3%

19.2%

4.4%

TARRANT

59.4%

9.6%

5.5%

0.6%

20.0%

4.8%

DALLAS

59.8%

11.5%

6.2%

1.0%

17.5%

4.0%

BEXAR

57.2%

10.9%

6.9%

1.3%

18.9%

4.8%

DENTON

57.4%

7.7%

4.4%

0.3%

24.0%

6.2%

COLLIN

57.5%

8.3%

4.9%

0.4%

23.1%

5.7%

WILLIAMSON

56.3%

11.2%

5.5%

0.4%

20.6%

6.0%

LUBBOCK

67.2%

11.2%

3.2%

0.6%

13.7%

4.1%

SMITH

70.8%

8.9%

2.5%

0.2%

13.3%

4.3%

TRAVIS

50.8%

16.0%

7.3%

1.2%

18.6%

6.2%

Compiled using voter data compiled by Ryan Data & Research from the Texas Secretary of State and
county clerks / elections administrators around the state.

2016 Republican Primary

Turnout by Previous Republican Primary Voters
(Select counties only)
The following is a breakdown of the percentages of each group who have already cast a vote in the
2016 Republican Primary. (Example: In Harris County, 61.4% of the 4 of 4Rs have cast their vote
during early voting.)

County

Voted in all 4 of
the last 4
Republican
Primaries

Voted in only 3
of the last 4
Republican
Primaries

Voted in only 2
of the last 4
Republican
Primaries

Voted in only 1
of the last 4
Republican
Primaries

Has voted in both

party primaries, but
last Voted in an R
Primary

HARRIS

61.4%

45.7%

33.5%

18.6%

33.6%

TARRANT

63.3%

49.0%

36.1%

21.2%

39.0%

DALLAS

57.3%

41.7%

29.1%

15.9%

31.4%

BEXAR

63.9%

47.0%

33.9%

18.7%

37.3%

DENTON

70.4%

53.8%

40.6%

23.2%

41.9%

COLLIN

71.5%

55.4%

40.7%

24.8%

43.3%

WILLIAMSON

66.6%

50.2%

36.4%

22.2%

39.3%

LUBBOCK

70.0%

54.0%

37.6%

21.7%

43.7%

SMITH

54.4%

41.3%

30.7%

17.9%

32.1%

TRAVIS

41.7%

28.6%

19.1%

10.0%

21.4%

Compiled using voter data compiled by Ryan Data & Research from the Texas Secretary of State and
county clerks / elections administrators around the state.

Early Voting In Person Comparison Republican Primary

2008 to 2014
Top 15 Counties Only

2016
2014
2012
2010
2008

Day
1
30,610
19,641
19,839
18,599
19,262

Day
2
30,113
21,261
19,312
19,019
19,007

Day
3
36,492
19,752
19,152
18,851
18,192

Day
4
36,156
24,261
18,442
21,452
22,381

Day
5
37,982
21,624
22,122
20,000
22,687

Day
6
14,817
7,174
19,520
6,541
7,587

Day
7
45,926
23,063
6,632
22,263
22,649

Day
8
45,066
27,361
20,232
18,933
25,877

Day
9
69,248
27,720
24,706
28,704
28,277

Day
10
93,731
40,502
27,496
36,700
37,600

Based on data provided by the Texas Secretary of State.

Day
11
168,924
72,326
34,930
67,058
54,972

Day
12

64,614

Early Voting By Mail Comparison Republican Primary

2008 to 2014
Top 15 Counties Only

2016
2014
2012
2010
2008

Day
1
20,158
29,257
25,087
10,319
5,625

Day
2
2,559
5,603
2,787
2,621
2,489

Day
3
3,783
3,978
1,685
1,476
1,080

Day
4
3,071
3,183
2,345
1,452
632

Day
5
1,796
833
1,685
444
1,124

Day
6
278
0
597
219
56

Day
7
5,601
4,182
10
1,834
1,544

Day
8
3,398
4,718
1,926
2,999
2,555

Day
9
5,236
3,604
2,150
1,619
1,947

Day
10
4,039
2,799
3,001
2,660
1,514

Based on data provided by the Texas Secretary of State.

Day
11
4,897
3,408
2,948
2,617
6,404

Day
12

2,269

Early Voting Cumulative Totals Republican Primary

2008 to 2014
Top 15 Counties Only

2016
2014
2012
2010
2008

Day
1
50,768
48,898
44,926
28,918
24,887

Day
2
83,462
75,764
67,025
50,560
46,329

Day
3
123,736
98,679
87,862
70,895
65,602

Day
4
162,963
126,129
108,649
93,797
88,615

Day
5
202,741
148,586
132,456
114,241
112,590

Day
6
217,834
155,731
152,573
121,000
120,233

Day
7
269,355
182,981
159,215
145,102
144,426

Day
8
317,819
215,060
181,383
167,034
172,858

Day
9
386,617
246,385
208,239
197,360
203,083

Day
10
484,387
289,687
238,736
236,747
242,197

Based on data provided by the Texas Secretary of State.

Day
11
658,208
365,423
276,614
306,422
303,338

Day
12

343,497