Вы находитесь на странице: 1из 74

Human Longevity

and
a New Vision of Aging

Natalia S. Gavrilova, Ph.D.


Leonid A. Gavrilov, Ph.D.
Center on Aging
NORC and The University of Chicago
Chicago, USA

, , 1986

, , 1991


, 1999

:

,

:


:
,

Source: Gavrilov, Gavrilova, Handbook of the Biology of Aging, 2006

:
, ,

:
(
)

.


Convergence of Mortality Rates with Age
1
2
3
4

India, 1941-1950, males


Turkey, 1950-1951, males
Kenya, 1969, males
- Northern Ireland, 1950-1952,
males
5 - England and Wales, 19301932, females
6 - Austria, 1959-1961, females
7 - Norway, 1956-1960, females
Source: Gavrilov, Gavrilova,
The Biology of Life Span 1991


( )
(80+)

0.1

0.1

Log(Hazard Rate)

Log(Hazard Rate)

0.01

0.01

short-lived parents
long-lived parents

short-lived parents
long-lived parents

Linear Regression Line

0.001
40

50

60

70

Age

80

90

100

Linear Regression Line


0.001
40

50

60

70

Age

80

90

100

:


,



(disposable soma,
Thomas Kirkwood)

,

, ,
(Westendorp, Kirkwood,
Nature, 1998).

-,
,

The estimates of progeny number are adjusted for trends over
calendar time using multiple regression.

,



,

Source: Westendorp, R. G. J., Kirkwood, T. B. L. Human longevity at the cost of reproductive


success. Nature, 1998, 396, pp 743-746

Antoinette de Bourbon
(1493-1583)
90
,
,
,
: Marie
(1515-1560),


,
12 !

Marie 1515-1560
Francois Ier 1519-1563
Louise 1521-1542
Renee 1522-1602
Charles 1524-1574
Claude 1526-1573
Louis 1527-1579
Philippe 1529-1529
Pierre 1529
Antoinette 1531-1561
Francois 1534-1563
Rene 1536-1566


-
Childlessness Odds Ratio Estimates
as a Function of Wife's Lifespan

C hildlessness O dds R atio (N et E ffect)

Multivariate logistic regression analysis of


3,723 European aristocratic families

10

:
8

31

0
<20

20-29 30-39 40-49 50-59 60-69 70-79 80-89

Wife's Lifespan

90+

Gavrilova et al. Does


exceptional human
longevity come with
high cost of infertility?
Testing the evolutionary
theories of aging.
Annals of the New York
Academy of Sciences,
2004, 1019: 513-517.

Short Conclusion:
Exceptional human
longevity is NOT
associated with infertility
or childlessness



(
60 )

Source: Gavrilov, Gavrilova, Rejuvenation Research, 2010

Marie-Antoinette von
Habsburg-Lothringen
(1765-1793)

Charles IX
dAnguleme (15501574)
Henry VIII Tudor
(1491-1547)


(
)
D au ghter's Lifesp an (deviation), years

30
6

54

Extinct birth
cohorts (born
0
in 1800-1880)

-2

40
50
60
70
80
90
100
,
Paternal Lifespan, years
6443 cases
Source: Gavrilova, Gavrilov, JAAM, 2001

C.E. Finch, R.E. Tanzi, Science, 1997, p.407



A. Cournil, T.B.L. Kirkwood, Trends in Genetics, 2001, p.233

1.

2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.

Father: Mike Ackerman, Farmer, 1865-1939 lived 74 years


Mother: Mary Hassebroek 1870-1961 lived 91 years
Engelke "Edward" M. Ackerman b: 28 APR 1892 in Iowa
101
Fred Ackerman b: 19 JUL 1893 in Iowa
103
Harmina "Minnie" Ackerman b: 18 SEP 1895 in Iowa 100
Lena Ackerman b: 21 APR 1897 in Iowa
105
Peter M. Ackerman b: 26 MAY 1899 in Iowa
86
Martha Ackerman b: 27 APR 1901 in IA
95
Grace Ackerman b: 2 OCT 1904 in IA
104
Anna Ackerman b: 29 JAN 1907 in IA
101
Mitchell Johannes Ackerman b: 25 FEB 1909 in IA
85


, ,
..


, ,

Gavrilov, L., Gavrilova,


N. Reliability
theory of aging
and longevity. In:
Handbook of the
Biology of Aging.
Academic Press, 6th
edition, 2006.


:
(Idea of High Initial Damage
Load )


,


.

Source: Gavrilov, L.A. & Gavrilova, N.S. 1991. The Biology of Life Span:
A Quantitative Approach. Harwood Academic Publisher, New York.



:






,

.
Source: Gavrilov, L.A. & Gavrilova, N.S. 1991. The Biology of Life Span:
A Quantitative Approach. Harwood Academic Publisher, New York.


80
7.9

life expectancy at age 80, years

1885 Birth Cohort


1891 Birth Cohort

Data source:
Social Security
Death Master File

7.8

7.7

7.6

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Month of Birth

Source: Gavrilov LA,


Gavrilova NS (2008.)
Mortality measurement at
advanced ages: a study of
the Social Security
Administration Death Master
File. In: Living to 100 and
Beyond: Survival at
Advanced Ages [online
monograph]. SOA
Monograph MLI081 32p.
Shaumburg, IL: The Society
of Actuaries.

Predictors of
Exceptional Longevity


,

,

Winnie aint quitting now.

,
100 , 93

Smith G D Int. J. Epidemiol. 2011;40:537-562
Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the International Epidemiological Association
The Author 2011; all rights reserved.





Yet, factors predicting exceptional

longevity
and its time trends
remain to be fully understood

In this study we explored the new


opportunities provided by the
ongoing revolution in
information technology,
computer science and Internet
expansion to explore earlychildhood predictors of
exceptional longevity

Jeanne Calment
(1875-1997)

Study 1
How centenarians are
different from their shorterlived sibling?

, ,

Within-family study of 9,724 centenarians born in 1880-1895 and their siblings survived to
age 50





,
,


(
)

,
,

Within-family study of 2,153 centenarians and their siblings survived to age 50. Family size
<9 children.
p=0.020
p=0.013

p=0.043

:
Tarin et al.,
Delayed
Motherhood
Decreases Life
Expectancy of
Mouse Offspring.
Biology of
Reproduction
2005 72: 13361343.




, ,
,


.


,
?

A study of height and


build of centenarians
when they were young
using WWI civil draft
registration cards

Miller RA. Kleemeier Award Lecture: Are there genes for aging? J Gerontol Biol Sci 54A:B297B307, 1999.

Source: Miller et al., 2000. The Journals of Gerontology Series A: Biological Sciences and Medical Sciences 55:B455-B461

(

)

Odds PRatio value


1.35 0.260


(
)

2.63* 0.025

2.20* 0.016

0.68

0.268

1.13 0.682

30

Conditional (fixed-effects) logistic
regression
N=171.

Odds
ratio

1-3

1.62

4+

2.71

95% CI
0.892.95
0.997.39

Pvalue
0.127
0.051



,
1887 ,
,
(30
)


,

:

http://longevity-

science.org

Acknowledgments
This study was made
possible thanks to:
generous support from the
National Institute on Aging
grant
#R01AG028620

stimulating working
environment at the Center on
Aging, NORC/University of

22000
50
2 .
1992


()


50 (

)

.. . Demoscope N 463-464


50 (

)

.. . Demoscope N 463-464

HRS-harmonizing studies

UK English Longitudinal Study of


Ageing (ELSA)
Study on Health, Ageing and
Retirement in Europe (SHARE)
WHO Study on global AGEing and
adult health (SAGE) including
Russia

, , , ,
,



,



(,
)

T.Seeman presentation


NSHAP


McClintock Laboratory
(Cytology)

UC Cytopathology
(Cytology)

Jordan Clinical Lab


Magee Womens Hospital
(Bacterial, HPV Analysis)

Salimetrics
(Saliva
Analysis)
McDade Lab
Northwestern
(Blood Spot
Analysis)

Sex hormone assays


Estradiol
Progesterone
DHEA
Testosterone

Cotinine


(Salivary Cotinine)

Nicotine metabolite

Objective marker of tobacco exposure,


including second-hand

Non-invasive collection method (vs.


serum cotinine)



Classification of Smoking Status by Cotinine Level in Females
Cut-points based on distribution among smokers
.2

Fraction

.15

Occasiona
l

Nonsmoker

Passive

Regular

.1
10 ng

15 ng

34 ng
10% M

103 ng
30% M

344 ng
M

.05

0
-5

log(Cotinine)

M = mean cotinine among female who report current smoking


Bar on left corresponds to cotinine below level of detection

10


(Dried Blood Spots)

C-Reactive Protein (CRP)

Epstein-Barr Virus (EBV) Antibody Titers

Thanks, Thom and


McDade Lab Staff!




,
, ,





http://biomarkers.uchicago.ed
u/