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1.
Geologic Overview.........................................................................................2
Northern Alaska.................................................................................................2
North Slope Phase Windows.................................................................................6
Colville River Unit Overview................................................................................6
Colville River Depositional Environment.................................................................9
Colville River Stratigraphy...................................................................................9
Fiord Oil Pool Structure.....................................................................................11
2.
Reservoir Analysis/Description.........................................................................11
OOIP Calculation.............................................................................................11
Relative Permeability Data.................................................................................15
PVT Data.......................................................................................................17
Differential Vaporization (Liberation) Test...........................................................18
Multi-Stage Separation Test.............................................................................23
Core Data......................................................................................................24
3.
Drilling/Completions.....................................................................................31
4.
5.
6.
Economics..................................................................................................41
Base Case Economic Evaluation..........................................................................41
7.
Moving Forward...........................................................................................44
Model...........................................................................................................44
New Wells......................................................................................................44
Appendices........................................................................................................45
Appendix A: Alaska North Slope: Generalized Stratigraphy........................................45
Appendix B: Capillary Pressure Graphs.................................................................46
Appendix C: Summary of PVT Study Results for Sample 1.03.....................................47
Appendix D: Differential Liberation Test Summary Vapor Compositions......................48
Appendix E: Differential Liberation Test Summary Residual Oil Compositions..............49
Appendix F: Multi-Stage Separation Test Vapor/Liquid Properties..............................50
Appendix G: Multi-Stage Separator Test Summary Vapor Composition.......................51
Appendix H: Multi-Stage Separator Test Summary Residual Liquid Composition...........52
Appendix I: Reservoir Fluid Property Plots.............................................................53
1. Geologic Overview
Northern Alaska
Northern Alaska is divided into three major, parallel provinces: from south to north, these
are the Arctic Mountains (Brooks Range), the Arctic Foothills, and the Arctic Coastal Plain. The
latter two regions, which together compose the North Slope, narrow toward the east and are
truncated on the west by the
Chukchi seacoast. These two
regions, located in northwestern
Alaska, are situated on what is
known as the Arctic Alaska
microplate. The complexity of
the geology decreases to the
north as the terrain changes from
mountains to foothills and the
Figure 1.1: Geologic Provinces of Northern Alaska. [11]
encompasses most of the North Slope and continental shelf, is dominated by structures that are
resulting from the Jurassic and Early Cretaceous rifting that formed the northern continental
margin of Alaska. This rifting separated northern Alaska from a continent to the north, producing
a structural high, the Barrow arch, which has played a role in the structural and depositional
history of the region. The northern area
of the Colville basin is outlined by the
Barrow arch, which is composed of
pre-Mississippian to Lower Cretaceous
aged rocks. This arch was created by
multiple events of upwarping and
folding throughout the Jurassic and
Cretaceous time periods. Uplifting and
erosion during these rifting cycles
occurred in bursts at varying locations
over time. Sediments eroded from
these uplifted locations collected in
low-lying basin.
The general stratigraphy of the
Alaska North Slope is broken down
Figure 1.2. North Slope basin evolution: cross section. [2]
Beaufortian, and Brookian. The Ellesmerian sequence is defined by the base of the Endicott
Group (informally called the Basement) and the disconformity at the top of the Sag River
Formation. The Ellesmerian thins to the south due to increasing distance from its source area and
the coast and offshore make up a large part of the Brookian age strata in the subsurface. The
Beaufortian sequence appears on logs ranging of thickness from 15 to 2,050 feet and are rather
featureless on both gamma-ray and resistivity logs [4].
The Kingak Shale is a rock unit consisting largely of marine shale with some interbedded
siltstone and sandstone that overlies the Shublik Formation [1]. The Kingak Shale ranges in
thickness from 0 feet in the northeast where it has been eroded away to up to 3,450 feet in the
south. The Kingak Shale is Jurassic to Lower Cretaceous in age, and is bounded by strong
seismic reflectors that represent the Triassic Shublik and the Cretaceous Pebble Sand [5].
The Brookian sequence consists of condensed shales of a Highly Radioactive Zone
(HRZ); thick delta shales of the Torok Formation; shales of the Colville Group; and the Canning
Formation [4]. This sequence has much less quartz and more ductile rock fragments than it has
sandstones of the Ellesmerian sequence. Most of the sediments within the sequence span the time
from the Lower Cretaceous to the Pliocene [2].
The southern part of the Colville basin is gently folded at the surface and is bordered by a
west-trending belt composed of mostly incompetent and structurally imbricated rocks [6]. This
belt signifies the location of important north to south changes in the Paleozoic and lower
Mesozoic stratigraphy and is composed of folded and thrusted Devonian to Lower Cretaceous
sedimentary rocks.
Petroleum source rock facies of the Shublik Formation, Kingak Shale, pebble shale unit,
and younger basinal shales of the Brookian sequence are all likely to have generated gas and/or
oil. This being based on organic richness, kerogen composition, and thermal maturity determined
from well and outcrop samples [7] [8] [9].
Previous structural analysis of the Brooks Range foothills show the region is dominated
by a thin-skinned deformation with displacement resolved along a master detachment in the
lower Kingak sequences and Shublik [10]. Faulting in the Torok and Nanushuk deposits is
dominated by thrust and detachment faulting. Within the Kingak and Torok zones, faulting steps
up from the lower detachment near the Brooks Range foothills towards the north. Contractions
are oriented in a north-south direction and stratigraphic thickening occurring in an east-west
direction [8]. Appendix A shows the varying lithologies and formations that exist within the
Alaska North Slope region.
was deposited to the south. This was caused by uplifting in the north before the Arctic Ocean was
exposed. The second environment, or Beaufortian sequence, is observed in the Colville River
unit is a shelf clastic system that incorporates transgressive lag sandstones [12]. In the Brookian
sequence, a clastic northward and eastward prograding system is observed. The productive oil
bearing sandstones are seen in both the Brookian and Beaufortian sequences. The reservoir sands
seen in these sequences can be small isolated sands but are also observed to be complex
petroleum systems embedded in large complex sandstones [12]. Because the reservoirs are so
sporadic, the oil pools are usually constrained by stratigraphic traps such as the gradation of
sandstone to silt and mudstones [12].
The Fiord Oil Pool is the interest of this project. It consists three main intervals: the
Nechelik, Kuparuk, and a shaly sandstone separating the two. The Kingak Shale is the known
source rock for the Fiord accumulation. Gas generation likely began in the Cretaceous period and
all generation and migration was completed during the Paleogene Period [12]. At the northern
edge of the pool, the Fiord No. 5 revealed that the Fiord encompasses the interval between 6,876
and 7,172 giving an overall thickness of roughly 296 [13]. The Nechelik is a Jurassic Age
sandstone that strikes NE and dips to the SE. The Nechelik is the deepest of the three intervals in
the Fiord Pool. The shaly sandstone observed between the Nechelik and the Kuparuk appears to
thin to the north while dipping to the northwest. The top part of this zone is recognized as the
Lower Cretaceous Unconformity (LCU). The LCU was formed through uplifting and erosion.
Because the LCU thins to the south and dips to the north, eventually the LCU cuts into the
Nechelik. At this point the Kuparuk and Nechelik sands directly contact one another. To the
southeast, in the area around the Fiord 2, a small sliver of the Alpine Sandstone can be seen
separating the Nechelik and Kuparuk sands. The Kuparuk sand is stratigraphically the highest of
the three target intervals, lying directly on top of the LCU. The Kuparuk has a thickness of
approximately 5 and tends dip
to the northwest in the area of
interest.
Varying degrees of cementation are also seen throughout the Kuparuk formation. These
variations were caused by differences in depositional energy, which is characteristic of a deltaic
environment. In the neighboring Kuparuk Field, the lower Kuparuk is seen to have
approximately six sand-bearing intervals that elongate to the northeast [12].
8
The Lower Kuparuk formation is believed to have been deposited in a wave dominated
lower shoreface environment [12]. The lower targeted Nechelik zone is composed of very fine to
fine grained sandstones that prograde to the south/southeast and are separated by layers of
laminated mudstone. The Nechelik sand is generally poor in reservoir quality due to a significant
amount of bioturbation seen through the formation. The porosity is generally around 12% with a
permeability around 1.5 md. This is characteristic of a regressive depositional cycle in a shelf or
middle/upper shoreface setting [12].
Unconformity before moving into the early cretaceous time period. Stratigraphically, the
Miluveach formation lies directly above the Upper Jurassic Unconformity and encompasses the
Lower Kuparuk sandstone. The stratigraphic column then shows the upper Kuparuk sandstone
depositing on top of the LCU which is observed to cut through the Miluveach Formation. A
stratigraphic column containing the areas of described above can be seen in Figure 1.5.
upper Kuparuk sand. Because of the vast amount of normal faulting that is seen in the Colville
River Unit, both structural and stratigraphic traps are developed [12]. As the upper Kuparuk
formation pinches out and cements laterally, it aids in the trapping of hydrocarbons.
2. Reservoir Analysis/Description
OOIP Calculation
Oil in place calculations were made using the understanding various properties
throughout the Nechelik sandstone. The top of the Nechelik formation was picked in the given
resistivity logs and were then reviewed to gain an understanding of the total resistivity seen upon
entering the Nechelik formation. The Nechelik sand signature can be seen below in the log
shown below in Figure 2.1.
11
Nechelik
Formation Top
The
decrease in
Nechelik top
of a shale
saturated
sandstone.
After
determined
was
approximately 10.7
12
ohmm in the upper 40 of the Nechelik sandstone. From this point, the picket plots given in the
original data set contained resistivity values for the formation brine. The average formation water
resistivity was near 0.018 ohmm. The resistivity values obtained along with the given Archie
coefficients obtained from the Picket Plots were used in the Archie equation to determine an
initial water saturation for the field. Because there is no free gas in the formation, the original oil
saturation was determined by taking one minus the initial water saturation. The Nechelik was
determined to have an initial water saturation of approximately 35% and an initial oil saturation
of 65%. These values coincided with values found throughout our research.
After determining the initial saturations, the various reservoir properties were analyzed in
order to determine an initial oil in place. The reservoir area was found by determining the area of
the ellipsoidal shaped Nechelik sand. The major axis radius was determined to be approximately
3.25 miles where the minor radius was found to be approximately 1.75 miles. Given these
dimensions the total area of the sand was found to be approximately 12,250 acres. The porosity
for the reservoir was determined by analyzing the porosity in the core data. The porosity data
was lumped together and then analyzed to see how the porosity changed with depth below the
top of the Nechelik Sand shown in Figure 2.3 below.
13
Porosity
12.20
12.00
Porosity
11.80
11.60
11.40
11.20
11.00
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
20
40
60
Feet
80
100
120
140
160
180
Reservoir Quality Index
Reservoir quality index was used to evaluate the quality of the reservoir below the top of
the Nechelik sandstone. Figure 2.4 above shows how the reservoir quality changes with depth.
14
The initial 40 feet of reservoir was determined to be the highest quality zone with a porosity of
approximately 12.5% and a permeability range from 0.01 md to 100 md with a typical value of
around 0.2 md. Given these properties, the upper 40 feet of the Nechelik formation was used as
the formation thickness in the OOIP calculation. After sorting through the PVT data, it was found
the differential liberation formation volume factor of the oil was 1.327 bbl/STB. After compiling
all the data, it was determined that the original oil in place for the field was approximately
231,000,000 bbls.
15
0.9
0.9
0.8
0.8
0.7
0.7
0.6
0.6
Krow 0.5
Krow
0.5
Krw
0.4
0.4
0.3
0.3
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
0
1.0
Water Saturation
1.0
0.9
0.9
0.8
0.8
0.7
0.7
0.6
0.6
Krog 0.5
Krog
0.5
Krg
0.4
0.4
0.3
0.3
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
0.0
1.0
Gas Saturation
PVT Data
On September 2, 2005 Schlumberger completed a reservoir fluid analysis in the Wildcat
field on the Iapetus #2 well. Iapetus #2, an exploratory well, is located in Township 12 North,
Range 4 East, Section 8 and was completed on March 28, 2005 at a TVD of 7,986 feet.
A summary of the testing began by conducting a preliminary evaluation on bottomhole
hydrocarbon samples which included a single-stage gas-oil ratio (GOR), reservoir fluid
composition, and stock tank oil (STO) and monophasic fluid properties evaluations. From these
preliminary tests, three bottomhole samples were collected during the modular formation
dynamics testing (MDT) period and homogenized at reservoir conditions for five days. Based off
of initial validity testing on the three samples collected, the sample Prelim 1.03 was used for the
full PVT study. Appendix C provides a complete summary of testing results this sample. Using
this sample, a variety of tests were conducted as follows: a Constant Composition Expansion
(CCE) test at reservoir temperature, differential vaporization at reservoir temperature, a multistage separation test at specified conditions, and viscosity measurements of the oil at reservoir
temperature.
At a depth of approximately 8,722.2 feet MD, the bubble point pressure and initial
pressure at an average reservoir temperature of 165 F were determined to be 1,952 psia and
3,301 psia, respectively. The reservoir fluid viscosity of Sample 1.03 was measured to be 0.67 cP
at the bubblepoint pressure and 0.76 at the initial pressure, and the stock tank oil viscosity, at a
temperature of 165 F, was measured to be 2.47 cP. Table 2.1 provides the results of the different
flashing operations performed on Sample 1.03. Note that stock tank conditions are 14.696 psia
and 60 F.
Table 2.1. Summary of Flashing Operations Data for Sample 1.03.
17
Flash
Operation
Zero Flash
DL Flash,
Reservoir
Temp.
MS Separator
Test
Cumulative
GOR
(scf/stb)
API Gravity
(API)
Gas
Relative
Density
FVF at Res.
P&T
(bbl/stb)
FVF at Sat.
P&T
(bbl/stb)
613
34.9
1.019
1.353
1.371
591
36.4
0.963
1.327
1.344
521
36.7
0.911
1.296
1.314
18
FVF, bbl/stb
1.2
1.1
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
Pressure, psia
Oil FVF
STO
Solution GOR
700.0
600.0
500.0
400.0
Solution GOR, scf/bbl
Saturation Pressure,
1952 psia
300.0
200.0
100.0
0.0
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
Pressure, psia
Rs
STO
19
Saturation
Pressure,
2.5
1952 psia
2.0
Viscosity, cP
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
Pressure, psia
Viscosity
STO
Gas Properties
Results from the differential liberation test for gas properties are available in Appendices
D and E; plots of the gas deviation factor, gas gravity, and gas GOR can be seen below in Figures
2.10, 2.11 and 2.12. The deviation factor and gas gravity values tend to decrease a little before
starting to increase as pressure decreases. The total FVF values at saturation pressure and stock
conditions are 1.344 bbl/stb and 127.437 bbl/stb, respectively.
20
Z-Factor
1.04
0.99
0.94
0.89
0.84
0
200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000
Pressure, psia
Gas Deviation Factor
STO
Gas Gravity
1.5
1.3
1.1
Gas Gravity
0.9
0.7
0.5
0
200
400
600
800
Pressure, psia
Gas Gravity
STO
21
600,000
400,000
200,000
0
0
200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000
Pressure, psia
Gas FVF
STO
Compositional Data:
Compositions of the gas liberated at each differential pressure along with their molecular
weights are represented in Appendix E. The molecular weight of the residual liquid was
calculated to be 201.93 lbs/lbmol. From the differential vaporization test, the measured API
gravity of the residual oil was 36.3 API.
22
1.20
1.15
1.10
1.05
1.00
0
1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 10000
Pressure, psia
Measured FVF
Corrected FVF
Measured STO
Corrected STO
300.0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
Pressure, psia
Measured GOR
Corrected GOR
23
A multi-stage separation test is used to establish optimal pressure settings for the surface
separator and the appropriate number of separation stages. Both of these factors are designed to
keep the light ends in the liquid phase to maximize liquid recovery. Multi-stage separation tests
are conducted to provide data that would reflect actual production when combined with the
differential liberation data.
Core Data
The following data/statistics were taken through analyzation of the all of the core data
taken throughout the Nechelik sand. The results of the field analyzation can also be seen below
in tables 2.2 and 2.3:
Table 2.2: Permeability Statistics
Permeability (mD)
Rang Averag
Mod
Well
Alpine 3
Bergschund 1
Fiord 1
Iapetus 2
Fiord 5 PB1
Nigliq 1
Temptation 1
FIELD
e
0.16
0.43
13.9
5.43
110
86.47
10.8
e
0.11
0.23
0.92
0.682
9.05
3.65
1.73
Median
0.1
0.19
0.5
0.31
2.08
0.21
0.85
e
N/A
N/A
0.2
0.4
2.56
0.05
0
Standard Deviation
0.07
0.12
1.6
1.39
20.17
11.35
2.59
110
3.53
0.42
0.2
11.65
e
2.7
4.7
Porosity (%)
Averag
Mod
e
10.18
11.81
Median
10.5
11.6
e
10.5
10
Standard Deviation
1.16
1.57
24
Fiord 1
Iapetus 2
Fiord 5 PB1
Nigliq 1
Temptation 1
FIELD
10
8
12.8
13.3
8.2
18.8
9.62
11.3
13.71
12.51
12.69
11.76
9.2
11.85
13.8
12.1
13
11.6
8.4
N/A
12.5
10.3
N/A
10.1
1.93
2.19
2.03
2.64
2.24
2.74
The porosity averages from the individual wells do not vary significantly from that of the
field average. The median and mode from the data all tend to lie within the 9 12% range. The
standard deviation from each well is significantly close to that observed throughout the entire
field. Because of these statistics you would expect the porosity throughout the field to exhibit a
normal distribution. When the porosity data was plotted on a histogram throughout the field, the
porosity data does in fact portray a normal distribution as shown below in Figure 2.15.
60
40
20
0
0
10
12
14
16
18
20
22 More
Bin
Frequency
0.16 md in the Alpine 3. The average permeability throughout the field remains fairly low
however there are areas that portray a higher permeability than other areas of the reservoir. The
standard deviation is also rather sporadic when comparing wells and likewise when the well
values are compared to the field value. The basic histogram below shows the wide distribution of
values
Permeability Distribution
160
140
120
100
Perm Frequency
80
60
40
20
8
7
7.
5
6
6.
5
5
5.
5
4
4.
5
3
3.
5
2
2.
5
1
1.
5
0
0.
5
Bin
Moving average ()
Figure 2.16: Permeability Distribution
When the permeability data is placed under a logarithmic scale however, a normal
distribution is be observed.
26
Moving average ()
100
50
0
0.01 0.1
10
Log Bin
When looking at how these properties vary throughout the field it can be seen that as
porosity increases in the field, generally the permeability is seen to increase as well. This is
shown in Figure 2.18 below.
27
Permeability
1
0
10
15
20
25
Porosity
The reservoir quality moving down through the Nechelik formation was also analyzed.
Figure 2.19 below shows the permeability is greatest in the upper 40 feet of reservoir and tends
to decrease as you move deeper in the formation.
28
80
60
40
20
0
0
0.01
0.1
10
100
1000
log perm
In order to get a better understanding of the flow behavior in the Nechelik formation,
reservoir quality index (RQI) and flow zone indication (FZI) were analyzed. This helped us
determine the effective formation thickness to be used in various calculations. When the FZI was
taken into account and compared against the RQI, it was seen that there is likely one or two
layers directly contributing to the production from the Nechelik formation. This can be seen in
Figure 2.20 below.
29
RQI
0.1
0.01
0.0
0.1
1.0
10.0
(Z)
RQI vs. Phi(z)
Figure 2.20: RQI vs. z
If more contributing zones were present, it would be represented with clusters of grouped
data points in the graph of RQI versus FZI shown below. Seeing one cluster of data points
indicates that the majority of the flow is coming from one contributing layer.
3. Drilling/Completions
Due to environmental restrictions, all drilling has to take place in the winter months. Ice
roads must be used to transport large equipment to location; presenting one of many challenges
operators face on the North Slope. Air travel must be used in the warmer months. Therefore,
wells are drilled and completed from the same rig to save time and space. The wells in interest
are all relatively new wells. The oldest well is the CD3-108 which was completed in April of
2005. Since then the wells have steadily been drilled each year. There were five wells drilled and
30
completed in 2006, two in 2007, three in 2008, two in 2009, six in 2010, four in 2011, one in
each 2012 & 2013 and one in 2015.
Well Design
The CD3 wells were all drilled in a similar fashion. They are drilled down to around
6700-6800 feet before they kick-off and continue horizontally into the formation. The wells are
oriented in a heel to heel pattern that can be seen in Figure 3.1. The largest lateral section is
between 9,000 and 10,000 feet and the shortest is closer to 5,000. All have a 16 conductor
casing that was set 114-116 feet deep. All wells then had a 9 5/8 surface casing set between
2400 -2500 feet. They then went to a 7 intermediate casing until around 7000 feet and installed
either a 4.5 inch or 3.5 inch production tubing. Typically there are 70-90 straight blade or
bowstring centralizers located throughout the casing string. Since the primary production of this
field is gas lift, there are gas lift mandrels located at varying depths in the producing wells. A
drilling/completion schematic can be seen below in Figure 3.2.
31
Completions
Both open hole and fractured completions are seen in the field. The open hole
completions are done using slotted liners and in some cases they are left empty without any kind
of liner. They have had multiple wellbore collapses with these completions. The wells that were
fractured used a sliding sleeve tapered drop ball design and were designed with five to seven
stages. The design used both 16/20 and 16/30 sand with linear and x-link gels. An example of
32
this fracture design can be seen below in Figure 3.3. The producing wells that were drilled into
the southeastern portion of the reservoir were fractured and the injectors were left as open hole.
However the producing wells that were drilled in the northwestern portion are not all fractured.
Only four out of the eight producers are fractured, the other four are open hole completions that
have slotted liners.
There were also three side tracks drilled. The CD3-111L1 lateral was drilled because a
downhole tool failed while drilling the CD-111. This tool failure caused the well to be drilled too
deep, missing the targeted top layer of the Nechelik. They therefore sidetracked from the original
wellbore and open hole completed the well in the desired interval. This well produced for seven
years until they decide to return to the well and fracture the lower lateral. The CD3-107 is
another sidetracked well. The well was originally completed in the Kaparuk C formation but was
then drilled and completed open hole in the Nechelik in 2007. During the wells flow back period
the open hole collapsed and production from the Nechelik decreased greatly. The well was
sidetracked lower into the Nechelik in 2008 and the well was again completed open hole. The
third sidetrack well is the CD3-106. The lateral section of this well is located just west of the
lateral of the CD3-109. During the drilling/completion of the CD3-106 they noticed that the
CD3-109 lateral had collapsed past the first 3,000 feet. Therefore they decided to sidetrack the
CD3-106L1 next to the collapsed section of the CD3-109 and continue to produce the 3,000 feet
of undamaged lateral in the CD3-109.
The laterals were likely drilled in the direction of maximum stress. With the ocean to the
North and mountains to the South, the maximum stress would be expected in this direction. This
would be beneficial in the fracturing operations. Longitudinal fractures work best for flooding
reservoirs, drilling was likely done with this in mind. If the direction of maximum stress
33
assumption is correct, the direction of minimum horizontal stress would be perpendicular to the
orientation of the wells. These stresses create a situation with pore wellbore stability. This likely
led to the collapsed wellbores. In order to prevent the collapsing problem seen in several wells,
the lateral sections could have been cased and cemented.
34
35
economic impact, as water is treated and injected, and the system is self-sufficiently powered.
Liquid volumes are likely very accurate, because oil is sold by pipeline and water is treated and
reinjected. Table 5.1 summarizes fluid totals as of November 2015. Figures 5.1 and 5.2 show
historic field production rates and cumulative volumes. Figures 5.3 and 5.4 show historic field
injection rates and cumulative volumes.
Table 5.1. Fluid Totals
Oil
Water
Gas
Production
41.2 Million Bbls
30.7 Million Bbls
7.68 Billion SCF
Injection
76.6 Million Bbls
45.5 Billion SCF
37
38
Production Forecasting
The current economic evaluation of the 26 Fiord Development wells drilled in the
Nechelik Sandstone, of the Colville River Unit. There are currently 13 producers and 10
injection wells. Production data available begins at April 1, 2006, and runs through November of
2015. Most of the early data was provided by the operator, and the most recent data was
extracted from the public data from the state of Alaska. The starting date for the evaluation was
chosen based on most recent production data, November 1, 2015.
Due to high porosity and permeability, combined with pressure maintenance from WAG
injection, the wells production forecasted using Arps law, and an exponential decline. Percent
decline values ranged from 4.3%/month to 0.5%/month. An example from well CD3-199 is
shown in Figure 5.5. The remaining forecasts are shown in Appendix J. The project remaining
recovery of the field is 16.4 MMbbls, with an estimated recovery factor of 24.9%
39
6. Economics
Base Case Economic Evaluation
Economic evaluations were run on variety of economic scenarios, to establish sensitivity
to variables. Variables changed were: price of oil, variable cost ($/bbl), and fixed cost ($/month).
With a variety of scenarios ran, economic decisions can be made as more reliable information is
established, and as the producing environment changes. Oil price scenarios included a current
40
NYMEX oil price prediction (as of 2/1/2016), a price of $50/bbl with a 1%/year escalation, and
an optimistic $70/bbl with a 1%/year escalation. Operating variable costs were varied at $2/bbl,
$5/bbl, and $10/bbl. Fixed costs were varied at $1000/mo, $5000/mo, and $10000/mo. Much of
this information is proprietary, but the operator currently owns much of the infrastructure in
place benefitting economies of scale. The wells are also at one centralized surface location,
operating on a largely self-sufficient gas-lift and injection system. With this information, a less
conservative cost estimate can be taken. All scenarios were evaluated at a 15% discount rate. A
summary of these scenarios is shown in Figure 6.1.
41
Figure 6.1. NPV15 and Undiscounted Evaluations for the field by pricing Scenario. (Series by variable
cost)
The economic analysis shows that the fixed monthly cost has little impact on the value of
the field. This is due to the large volumes produced by the 13 wells. The fixed costs were used to
establish an economic limit for the field. The economic limit is only reached near 100 years of
evaluation. This shows that the driving factor effecting the profitability of the field comes down
to variable costs. This would likely come from chemicals and pipeline costs.
7. Moving Forward
Model
We need to discretize the model and establish porosity and permeability distribution. A
saturation profile needs to be created, along with the fluid models and PVT data. History
matching the model will be a large portion of the project after the model is established. This will
be particularly difficult with the WAG flood. The simulation will need to capture the producers
converting to injectors, and the drilling of the sidetracked laterals.
New Wells
The feasibility of new wells will need to be conducted moving forward. New wells will
likely be drilled to further develop the western edge of the pool. Infill drilling can be evaluated
using the model. This seems like a reasonable option due to the extremely long forecasted field
42
life. Accelerated production would likely benefit the field. This will be evaluated with different
pricing scenarios in the PEEP software.
43
Appendices
Appendix A: Alaska North Slope: Generalized Stratigraphy
44
Pcwo, psi
0
0.0
0.1
Pcwoi
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
0.8
0.9
1.0
-50
-100
-150
Water Saturation
50
Pcgo
40
30
20
10
0
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
Gas Saturation
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
Liquid Density
0.82
0.80
0.78
Liquid Density, g/cc
0.76
0.74
0.72
0.70
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
Pressure, psia
Liquid Density
STO
Gas Viscosity
0.018
0.016
0.014
Gas Viscosity, cP
0.012
0.010
0.008
0.006
0
200
400
600
Gas Viscosity
STO
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
References
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61