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Looking Glass Ventures.

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ISBN: 978-1-944931-02-5

Note To Reader
Welcome to this little Zen Masters
guide on Probability, the second
problem-solving book in our Zen series
for middle-school students. As with all
our texts in this series, our goal is to
simply unveil the joys and delights of
this mathematical topic, to provide
context and make sense of the details,
and help set you on a path of
mathematical mastery and clever
problem-solving.
This title is of help and interest to
students and educators alike. As with
all the titles in the Zen Masters series,
this Probability guide is an eBook with a
matching online course at
http://edfinity.com/ZenSeries/Probability

(effective June 1, 2016).

So feel free to browse through this

guide casually as a book on a digital
device, or to work through its details as
a focused, auto-graded course -- or
both!
All the details one needs to know about
Probability are here in this book,
explained naturally and swiftly, along
with a robust compilation of practice
problems. The more you try solving
problems, the more confident youll
become at them -- youll even start to
notice recurring ideas and approaches
which you can then use to your
advantage. If you havent already, be
sure to read 8 Tips to Conquer Any
Problem in our Zen Masters series.
This is the must-read introduction to
building your problem-solving skills. In
fact, this guide is going to assume you

are familiar with the strategies and

advice we go through there.
Okay! Without further ado, lets get
started!

James Tanton
March 2016

Acknowledgements
My deepest thanks and appreciation to
Michael Pearson, Executive Director of
the Mathematical Association of
America, for setting me on the path of
joyous mathematical problem solving
with the MAA Curriculum Inspirations
project, and to Shivram Venkat at
Edfinity for inviting me to extend that
wonderful work to the global community
of younger budding mathematicians. I
am so very honored to be part of the
unique, and truly remarkable, digital
format experience Shivram and Edfinity
have developed for the world.

James Tanton
January 2016

Edfinitys Zen Masters Series

Edfinitys Zen Masters series is a
collection of 11 digital titles (6 for
Middle School and 5 for High School)
created for the modern educator and
student. The titles are available only in
digital form and consist of carefully
crafted problem collections designed to
help students master problem solving.
Each title guides students through the
themes of a specific topic (such as
Algebra or Probability), presenting
concise expository content, select
examples illustrating specific problem
solving techniques, and between 150200 problems expertly arranged to help
the user achieve complete mastery.
The volumes are each accompanied
with optional access to an Edfinity
digital companion presenting all the

problems in the title as a self-paced,

online course with auto-grading and
performance analysis. Educators may
enroll their students to track their
progress, or students/parents may
enroll individually. Access to the guides
provides educators access to rich,
supplemental problem collections for
classroom use.
The Zen Masters Series is designed to
serve broad usage by educators and
students alike, offering substantive
general enrichment, development of
foundational skills in problem solving,
and contest preparation. In addition to
helping students prepare effectively for
local and major international contests,
the problems provide robust attention to
standards and guidelines of the
Common Core State Standards in

Mathematics (USA), GCSE (UK),

Singapores Math curriculum,
Australian Curriculum, and most other
international syllabi.

ZEN MASTERS MIDDLE SCHOOL

SERIES
8 Tips to Solve Any Problem, by James
Tanton
Counting and Probability, by James
Tanton
Numbers and the Number System, by
James Tanton
Structure, Patterns and Logic, by
James Tanton
Relationships and Equations, by James
Tanton
Geometry, by James Tanton
Solutions Manual for each title by
James Tanton

ZEN MASTERS HIGH SCHOOL SERIES

Algebra, by David Wells
Geometry, by David Wells
Number Theory, by David Wells
Discrete Mathematics, by David Wells
Advanced Topics, by David Wells
Solutions Manual for each title by David
Wells
Enroll at
http://edfinity.com/ZenSeries/Probability
(effective June 1, 2016) for online
practice with scoring and complete
solutions.

1. Counting Set Sizes

BASIC JARGON
A set is a collection of things.
These things can be real things:
The set of all stuffed animals in
my bedroom right now.
The set of all people on the world
with exactly 257,340 hairs on their
head.
Or they could be abstract things that
exist in our minds:
The set of all even numbers.
The set of all words that rhyme
with house.
People usually describe a particular set
just in words, like we have done in the
four examples above, but sometimes
they like to list the elements of the set
explicitly if it is easy to do.

It has become the convention to use

curly brackets, { and } ,when you do this.
For example,

{red,blue,orange} is the set of the

three colors red, blue, and orange.
{A,B,C ,,Y ,Z } is the set of capital
letters in the English alphabet.
{2,4,6,8,....} is the set of even whole
numbers.
COMMENT: NOTICE HOW THE DOTS ARE
USED TO MEAN KEEP DOING THE OBVIOUS
THING.

The order in which one lists elements of

a set is considered unimportant. For
example, {red,blue,orange} and
{blue,red,orange} and {orange,red,blue} , and
so on, all represent the same set.

Question: Would you want to list the

elements of the set {2,4,6,8,....} in a
different order?

Also, it is assumed that one doesnt

repeat the elements in the set. For
example, writing
{red,red,red,blue,blue,orange,orange,orange,

orange,orange}

would be considered strange and

people wouldnt know what to make of
it.
The size of a set is the number of
things in it. This can sometimes be a bit
tricky to think about.

The set {red,blue,orange} has size 3.

The set of capital letters in the
English alphabet has size 26 .
The set of all even whole numbers
is infinite.
The set of all people with brown
hair who can sit at the bottom of
the ocean for an hour while
holding their breath is zero.

Sometimes people dont even know the

size of some sets!

Consider the set of all multiples of

six that are both one more and
one less than a prime number.
(Twelve, for example, is one such
multiple of six. So is eighteen.) No
one on this planet currently knows
the size of this set. (Most
mathematicians suspect it is
infinite, but they dont know for
sure.)

One could draw a diagram represent a

set. People usually draw circles to
represent a set, but a blob of any shape
is fine. For example, this set shows the
number of my friends who like math, 120
of them, and the number who dont,
just 3. (What is wrong with those
people?)

Often people like to denote sets with

symbols, usually, but not always,
capital letters.
For example, someone might say:

Let E denote the set of all even

whole numbers. (So E = {2,4,6,8,...} .)
or
Call the set of people with two arms
and the set of all people with three
P2
arms P3 .

The symbol used to denote a particular

set isnt important (although it is nice to
choose a symbol that seems helpful for
remembering what the set is).

By the way each thing in a set is

called an element of the set.
For example, 16 is an element of the
set of even numbers, and I am an
element of the set of people with brown
hair.
Problems 1,2 - solve on Edfinity.

TECHNICAL STUFF: UNIONS AND

INTERSECTIONS

The language and notation here gets

fancy. Well explain the language
through an example.
Let H be the set of all people with
brown hair.
Let E be the set of all people with
brown eyes.
The union of two sets is the set of all
objects that belong to at least one of
the sets. The symbol is used to
denote union.
H E is the set of all people who

either have brown hair, or have blue

eyes, or both.
The intersection of two sets is the set of
all objects that belong to both sets. The
symbol is used to denote
intersection.

H E is the set of all people with

both brown hair and brown eyes.

This picture represents the set of
brown-haired people and the set of
brown-eyed people.

Beatrice, who happens to have brown

hair, but not brown eyes, is represented
as a dot sitting inside the blob marked
H but not inside the blob marked E.

Jin-Pyo, who happens to have both

brown hair and brown eyes, is
represented by a dot that lies inside
both blobs.
Arman has red hair and blue eyes and
is represented by a dot outside both
blobs.
The union and the intersection of H and
E is represented by those points that lie
in the shaded regions shown.

Sets need not intersect:

The set of all even whole numbers
and the set of all whole numbers

that end with 5 have no elements

in common.
The set of all cows and the set of
all planets in the solar system do
not intersect.
The sets {A,B,C } and {D,E ,F } do not
intersect.
Sets that do not intersect might be
depicted as follows:

Comment: It is possible for two sets P

and Q to satisfy P Q = Q . Sets arrange
as shown below have this property.

An example of two sets like this could

be:
P = the set of all people who have
ever opened a math book.
Q = the set of people who have
opened this book.
In this picture we also have P Q = P .

Problem 3 - solve on Edfinity.

SIZES OF UNIONS AND INTERSECTIONS

In a class of 20 students, 10 have a pet

cat, 8 have a pet dog, and 5 have both.
Heres a diagram that shows this
information and more!

Do you see that 10 students do indeed

have a pet cat? Do you see that 8 have
a pet dog?
We also see that 3 students have a dog
but not a cat, and that 5 students have
a cat but not a dog. Also, a total of 13
students own at least one pet of the
types we are considering.

Warning: 10 students
Warning!
have a cat, 8 have a
dog. It is tempting to
say then that 10+ 8 = 18 students own at
least one pet, which is not 13 ! Do you
see the trouble with this? In the sum
10+ 8 = 18 those people that own both a
cat and a dog got counted twice: once
as a cat owner and once as a dog
owner. This means that the number 18
is too big (which we know it is!)

WARNING:

WATCH OUT FOR THE PEOPLE IN

THE INTERSECTION OF TWO SETS. THEY CAN
MAKE ADDING THE NUMBERS CORRECTLY A BIT
TRICKY.

Heres a more general situation.

Consider two sets P and Q :

The number a is the number of

elements that are in P but outside of Q ,
b is the number of elements that belong
to both P and Q , and c is the number of
elements that are in Q but outside of P .
Some questions:
If b = 0 , what is happening? (Look
at the diagram again.)
This means that that there are no
elements in the intersection of the two
sets and the picture should be more
like:

If c = 0 , what is happening?
In this case there are no elements in Q
that dont belong to P . The picture
should be more like:

If a = 0 , what is happening?
In this case there are no elements in P
that dont belong to Q . The picture
should be:

What is the meaning of the

number a + b ?
This is the total number of element of
P . It is the size of P .
What is the meaning of the
number b + c ?
This is the size of Q .
What is the meaning of the
number a + b + c ?
This is the size of P Q , the union.
Now things can get tricky!

EXAMPLE: A set P has 10 elements and a

set Q has 8 elements. If their union has 12
elements, how many elements belong to
both P and Q ?
Answer: If we look at the general
picture:

We are being told:

And

a + b = 10
b + c = 8
a + b + c = 12.

But algebra is too hard!

There are 12 elements in total, and

P has 10 of them.
It must be that c = 2 .
Since Q has 8 elements and c = 2 ,
we must have b = 6 .
There are 6 elements in the
intersection.
MATH STRATEGY: Some people like
to notice the following relationship.
Look again at the picture:

We have:

( )
size Q = b + c
( )

size P = a + b

So

( )

()

size P + size Q = a + b + b + c .

But a + b + c = size ( P Q ) and theres an

extra b , which is size ( P Q ) .

( )

()

size P + size Q = size P Q + size P Q

Tip
Some people memorize
this formula to answer
questions about sizes of unions and
intersections. I personally dont! Id
rather look at the picture and then nut
my way through the mathematics, just
like we did in the previous examples.

SUBSETS
One final piece:
By a subset of a set A we mean
another set all of whose elements, if
there are any, already belong to A .
For example, if A = {a,b,c,d,e} , then {a,c,d}
and {e} are subsets. So are {a,b,c,d,e} ,
the whole set itself, and {} ,the set with
nothing in it. (Read the definition again
carefully!) These last two examples are
a bit weird and are sometimes called
improper subsets. All other subsets,
with at least one element, and not
containing everything, are called proper
subsets.
If B is a subset of A , we might write:
B A . The picture that goes with this
situation is:

Problems 4-10 -solve on Edfinity.

2. Basic Probability

There are five vowels in the English

alphabet: A, E, I, O, and U. (Lets not
include Y for now.) We like to believe
that if we choose a letter of the
alphabet at random the chances of it
being a vowel is:
5
.
26

(As a decimal, this is about 0.19. As a

percentage, this is 19% .)
The 5 in the numerator is the number
of vowels and the 26 in the
denominator is the total number of
letters we are choosing from.
In general
Suppose we have a set of possible
outcomes we are considering.

For example, in picking a letter

there are 26 possible outcomes:
A,B,C ,..,Y ,Z } .
{
For example, in tossing a coin
would consider a set of two possible
outcomes: {heads,tails} .
In rolling a die, we would consider a
set of set of six possible outcomes,
the possible rolls: {1,2,3,4,5,6} .
But suppose we hoping to see a
particular type of outcome from among
the given options.
For example, in picking a letter we
might be hoping for a vowel:
A,E ,I ,O,U } .
{
For example, in flipping a coin we
might be hoping to see a head:
head } .
{
In rolling a die, we might be hoping
to see an even number: {2,4,6} .

Then we like to say that the probability

of seeing the option we want is the
fraction:
sizeof the set of outcomes we want
.
p=
sizeof the set of all possible outcomes

(Notice that the numerator is never

larger than the denominator.)
For example, the probability of picking
a vowel from the set of letters of the
alphabet is:

{
{

size A,E ,I ,O,U

}
}

5
p=
= .
26
size A,B,C ,...,Y ,Z

The probability of seeing a head when

tossing a coin is:

size head

1
p=
= .
2
size head,tail

The probability of rolling an even

number with tossing a die is:

size 2,4,6

3 1
p=
= = .
size 1,2,3,4,5,6 6 2

Note
Some things to note:
1. The probability of an event is
always a number between 0 and 1.
2. If p = 0 , that is, if a probability is
zero, then this must be because
there are no outcomes among the
options we want to see. In other
words, we will have zero chance of
seeing the outcome we desire.
For example, what are the chances of
seeing a 7 when rolling a die? Well,

there is nothing we want to see among

the possible options {1,2,3,4,5,6} . So

size nothing
0
p=
= = 0.
size{1,2,3,4,5,6} 6

3. If p = 1, that is, if a probability is

one or 100% , then this must be
because every option we could
possibly see is something we want
to see.
For example, what are the chances of
seeing a number smaller than 33 when
rolling a die?
All options we could see are
acceptable, so p =

size{1,2,3,4,5,6}
= 1.
size{1,2,3,4,5,6}

Our definition of probability applies to

geometry as well. Here the word size
means area.
EXAMPLE: A bone is buried somewhere
in a square 10 yard by 10 yard garden. A
dog is leashed at a post in the center of the
yard on a leash that is 3 yards long. What
are the chances that the bone is in the
region of the yard the dog can reach?

Answer: The circle has area 9 and

the entire garden has area 100 .
Thus the region of ground the dog
can explore represents the
proportion:

9
28.3%
100

of the yard. It seems reasonable to

say, then, that the dog has a 28.3%
chance of finding the bone.
In general, it seems right to say:
If a point is chosen at random in a
region A , then the probability that it
lands in a sub-region B is given by:
area(B)
p=
.
area A

( )

Again, p is a number between 0 and 1.

COMMENT:

PEOPLE LIKE TO SAY THAT LINE

SEGMENTS HAVE NO AREA.
(DOES THIS SEEM REASONABLE?) IN WHICH
CASE CONSIDER THE FOLLOWING QUESTION:

QUESTION:
A point is chosen at random in a square
of side length 1. What are the chances
that it lies on one of the diagonals of
the square?

Since we like to believe line segments

have no area, then the area of the two
diagonal lines is 0 . In which case, the
probability we seek is:

area(diagonals) 0
p=
= = 0.
area(square)
1

Does it seem reasonable to you to say

that there is a zero percent chance that
we would choose a point that lies
absolutely, exactly, for certain, on a
diagonal?
Problems 11-16 -solve on Edfinity.

OR AND NOT
Many textbooks make students think
about specific actions associated with
the words or and not. My advice is
not to worry about the rules they
teach and just use your common
sense!
Problems 17-18 -solve on Edfinity.

The general rule for or

is:

General
Rules

The probability for either A or B

happening is
sizeof theunion A B
.
p=
sizeof the set of alloutcomes

The general rule for not is:

The probability of A not happening is
sizeof the set of items not in A
.
p=
sizeof the set of alloutcomes

EXAMPLE: When rolling a die, the chance

of rolling a multiple of three is:

size{3,6}
2
p multipleof three =
= .
size{1,2,3,4,5,6} 6

The chance of not rolling a three is:

p not multipleof three =

4
=
6

size{1,2,4,5}
size{1,2,3,4,5,6}

Since all the multiples of three and all the

non-multiples of three constitute the

entire set of possible outcomes, these

probabilities add to 1. People notice:

( ) (

p A + p not A = 1 .

A rule some people like to memorize is:

( )

p not A = 1 p A

Again, there is nothing to memorize if

you are willing to use your common
sense.
Problems 19-20 -solve on Edfinity.

LOTS OF TRIES
Problem 20 suggests an idea that feels
intuitively right:
If a certain outcome of an
experiment has a probability p% of
occurring, then if you perform the
experiment many many times, then
youll see the outcome about p% of
the time.
For example:
If I roll a die a million times, Ill likely
1
see a 5 about of the time.
6
If I toss a coin a 90,000 times, Id
likely see about 45,000 heads.
If roll die 1000 times and the number
6 came up 933 times, I would

probably conclude that the die is

loaded (and that the chanced of
rolling a six are about 93.3% .)
Problems 21,22 -solve on Edfinity.

3. Compound Events
Lets start this section in a strange way.
Suppose 100 people walk down a
garden path that leads to a fork.
Those who turn left go to house A,
those who turn right to house B.

Assume that there is a 50% chance

that a person will turn one way over
another.

In this set-up wed expect,

essentially, 50 people to end up at
house A and 50 people at house B.
The following diagram of one
hundred dots (for 100 people)
depicts this outcome:

The number 100 here doesnt matter.

The point is that if a square is used to
denote the entire population of people
walking down the path, then half the
area of the square (half the people) end
up with result A, and the second half of
the square with result B.

This is a very simple example. Lets

practice some more complicates
scenarios.
EXAMPLE: Folk walk down the following
system of paths. Use the square model to
compute the fraction of people that end
up at house A, at house B, and at house C.
(Assume that each choice encountered at
a fork in the path is equally likely.)

Answer: At the first fork, a third of the

people turn left, a third go straight, and
a third turn right.

Of those that turn left, half go to

house A and half go to house B.
All those who go straight, go to
house B.
Of those who turn right, a third go to
A, a third to B, and a third to C.

We have:

We see now that the proportion of

people that end up in house A is
1
6

given as half of a third, thats , plus

1
9

a third of a third, thats . This

1 1 5
.
6 9 18

proportion is + =

The proportion of people that end

1 1 1 11
.
6 3 9 18

up in house B is: + + =

The proportion of people that end

up in house C is:

1 2
= .
9 18

(Question: Does it make sense that

these three answers add to 1?)
CHALLENGE: People walk down the
following system of paths. Use the
square model to compute the fraction of
people that end up at each house.
(Again assume that each choice
encountered at a fork in the path is
equally likely.)

(Just so you have it, the answers

are

5 6 2
5
, , , and .)
18 18 18
18

Now lets bring this back to probability

theory:
EXAMPLE: I roll a die and then toss a
coin. What are the chances of getting an
even number followed by a head?
Answer: Think of this as a pathwalking problem with two houses
labeled WANT and DONT
WANT. The forks in the road
represent the options that can occur
(each, with 50% chance of
occurring):

This leads to the square model

diagram:

We see that the desired outcome

represents one quarter (half of a
half) of the square:

1
p even AND head = .
4

EXAMPLE: I toss a quarter, then I toss a

dime, and then I roll a die. What are the
chances of receiving HEAD, HEAD, and 5
or 6?
Answer: Heres the garden path:

This gives the square model:

We have:

2
1
p head AND head AND {5,6} =
of

6
2
1
2 1 1 1
of of the square= = .
2
6 2 2 12

Notice that each of the fractions in the

final answer is a fraction corresponding
to the probability of an individual
outcome in the series of tasks:
2
is the chance of rolling a five
6

or a six with a die,

1
is the chance of flipping a
2

head with a dime, and

1
is the chance of flipping a
2

head with a quarter.

We see we get these fractions of a

fraction of a fraction of a square the
product of these fractions.
In general:

General
Rule

If one performs one task and hopes to

get outcome A , and then performs a
second, completely unrelated, task and
hopes to get outcome B , then the
probability of seeing A and then B is the
product of the individual probabilities:

) ( ) ( )

p A and then B = p A p B .

The garden path model shows this.

Problems 23,24 -solve on Edfinity.

The following example shows the

advantage of thinking of probability
questions in terms of running many,
many runs of the experiment.
EXAMPLE: I roll a red die and a blue die.
What are the chances that the sum of the
two numbers I see add to a multiple of
four?
Answer: Here are all the ways I
could see a multiple of four:
Red = 1, Blue = 3:
The chances of seeing this are
1 1 1
= .
6 6 36

Red = 2, Blue = 2 or 6:
The chances of seeing this are
1 2 2
= .
6 6 36

Red = 3, Blue = 1 or 5:
The chances of seeing this are

1 2 2
= .
6 6 36

Red = 4, Blue = 4:
The chances of seeing this are
1 1 1
= .
6 6 36

Red = 5, Blue = 3:
The chances of seeing this are
1 1 1
= .
6 6 36

Red = 6, Blue = 2 or 6:
The chances of seeing this are
1 2 2
= .
6 6 36

Suppose we roll the dice a large

number of times, say 3600 times.
Then wed expect to see the first
option (Red =1, Blue = 3) about one

thirty-sixth of the time, that is, about

100 times, the second option about
200 times, the third about 200 times,
the fourth about 100 times, the fifth
about 100 times, and the sixth about
200 times. Thus of the 3600 rolls,
100+ 200+ 200+100+100+ 200 = 900 of
the rolls have sum a multiple of four.
Thus the probability of what we
seek is:
900 1
= .
3600 4

WITH REPLACEMENT AND WITHOUT

REPLACEMENT
Suppose a bag contains seven red
balls and three yellow balls. I am about
to pull out a ball and look at its color,
and then pull out a second ball and look
at its color. I can ask:
What are the chances I will see two
yellow balls?
There are two tasks here, for sure.
Task 1: Pull out a ball and look at its
color.
As there are ten balls and three are
yellow, the chances that the first ball
I see will be yellow is:

3
p first ball yellow = .
10

Task 2: Pull out a second ball and

look at its color.
Some people might assume that we
took the first ball out and left it out.
Other might assume we put the first
ball back in and then picked again.
The question as it stands in unclear!
Mathematicians use the phrase
without replacement to mean: dont
put back in whatever it is you just took
out. The phrase with replacement
means: put whatever you take out back
in before you start the next task.
Heres what I really meant to ask:
EXAMPLE: A bag contains seven red balls
and three yellow balls. I will pull two balls
out of the bag, one after the other, with
replacement. What are the chances I will
see two yellow balls?

Answer:
Task 1: Pull out a ball and look at its
color.

3
p first ball yellow = .
10

Task 2: Pull out a ball and look at its

color.
Since we put the first ball back,
there are again ten balls in the bag,
three of which are yellow. And we
have:

3
p second ball yellow = .
10

Thus the probability of seeing two

yellow balls is:

3 3
9
p both yellow = =
.
10 10 100

Of course, now we wonder about the

version of this question without
replacement.
A bag contains seven red balls and
three yellow balls. I will pull two
balls out of the bag, one after the
other, without replacement. What
are the chances I will see two yellow
balls?
Again, the probability of first seeing a
yellow ball is p( first ball yellow ) =

3
. But
10

the probability of seeing a second

yellow ball depends on what happened
with the first ball!
If the first ball seen really was
yellow, then a yellow ball is taken
away and there are two yellow balls
left in the bag of nine balls. In this
case: p( second ball yellow ) = .

2
9

If the first ball seen was not yellow,

then a red ball is taken away and
there are three yellow balls left in
the bag of nine balls. In this case:

3
p second ball yellow = .
9

Which probability should we use?

Lets go back to the garden path model.

Imagine sending people down the path

shown.

Which turn they make on the first fork

depends on what color ball they first
pick from the bag. We have that
them will pick a yellow ball and
continue on their journey. (The
remaining

3
of
10

7
get a red ball and
10

immediately go to the DONT WANT

house.)
Of those that are still on the garden
path, having chosen a yellow ball first,
their next turn is decided by the pick of
a second ball, without replacement.
All these people currently have a bag
with nine balls in it, two of which are
yellow. Thus each person has a

2
9

chance of going on to the WANT

house.

So, all in all, two-ninths of the threetenths of the people will end up in the
yellow-yellow WANT house.
And what fraction of the square is this?
2 3
6
1
It is = = of the square.
9 10 90 15

Thus, without replacement:

1
p both yellow = .
15

Advice

ADVICE:

WITHOUT REPLACEMENT
PROBLEMS TEND TO BE TRICKY! IT REALLY DOES
HELP TO DRAW A GARDEN PATH MODEL FOR
THEM, KEEPING TRACK OF THE FRACTION OF
PEOPLE WHO LUCKILY MAKE ALL THE CHOICES
YOU ARE HOPING FOR..

Question: Can you also think about

this second, without replacement,
question by imagining performing the
experiment of choosing two balls, say,
900 times? Can you see the answer

again?

1
15

(In general, is this approach of imaging

performing a large number of runs of
the experiment actually the same as
garden-path approach?)

AVOID SIMULTANEOUS ACTIONS!

In tossing a coin and rolling a die, say,

there are three possibilities:
1)Toss the coin & then roll the die,
2)Roll the die & then toss the coin,
3)Roll & toss the coin simultaneously.
Standing back and thinking about this
one would say that the coin and the die,
once theyve been flipped and tossed,
dont know or care in which order
their outcomes happened: all three
scenarios are philosophically
equivalent.
So we have some choice on how to
think about how actions are performed.

Heres my advice:

Advice

AVOID SIMULTANEOUS THINKING: ALWAYS

IMAGINE THAT ONE ACTION OCCURS FIRST AND
ANOTHER ONE SECOND. (AND IT USUALLY
DOESNT MATTER WHICH ONE YOU THINK OF AS
OCCURING FIRST.)

This is important for examples like the

following:
EXAMPLE: Two dice are tossed. What are
the chances of rolling two values that sum
to 7 ?
Answer: When people think of
tossing two dice they think of doing
so simultaneously. In which case it
looks like there are three ways to
roll a sum of 7 :

Roll a 1 and a 6 .
Roll a 2 and a 5.
Roll a 3 and a 4 .
Or is it more than this? Rolling a 4
and a 3? Is that the same as rolling
a 3 and a 4 ?
Warning!
Simultaneous
thinking is
confusing. Avoid it!
The dice dont care if they land on
the ground one at a time or
simultaneously. So lets go with the
one at a time idea. (Actually, in
real life, nothing happens
simultaneously: one die will always
stop rolling ever so slightly before
the second one stops. There is
always a first die and a second die!)

It is clear with a first and a second

roll that there are SIX ways to roll a
sum of 7 .
First roll = 1; Second roll = 6 .
First roll = 2; Second roll = 5.
First roll = 3; Second roll = 4 .
First roll = 4 ; Second roll = 3.
First roll = 5; Second roll = 2.
First roll = 6 ; Second roll = 1.
How many possible outcomes are
there in total? The first roll can be
any one of six numbers, as can be
the second roll. There are thus a
total of 6 6 = 36 results we could see
in rolling a first and second die.
Only the six options above give us a
sum of 7 , so:

6 1
p rolling7 =
= .
36 6

EXAMPLE: I roll a pair of dice. What are

the chances of seeing a 6 and a 2?
Answer: Assume one die is rolled
first and the other second. There
are a total of 36 outcomes we could
see.
Now we are hoping to see:
or

First roll = 6 ; Second roll = 2,

First roll = 2; Second roll = 6 .

The probability is thus p =

2
1
= .
36 18

Problems 25-32 -solve on Edfinity.

4. The Multiplication Principle

For Counting
Lets start with a tiny puzzle:
Suppose that there are three major
highways from Adelaide to Brisbane,
and four major highways from
Brisbane to Canberra.

How many different routes can one

take to travel from Adelaide to
Canberra via Brisbane (with no backtracking)?

Heres the real question:

Is the answer to this puzzle 7 ,

coming from 3 + 4 , or is the answer
12 , coming from 3 4 ?
We need to be very clear as to whether
we add or multiply these numbers.
Heres one way to think about it:
If we take the top route from A to B ,
then there are 4 options as to which
highway to take next:

If we take the middle route from A to
B , then there are 4 options as to which
highway to take next:

And if we take the bottom route

from A to B , then there are 4
options as to which highway to take
next:

Thus there are a total of 4 + 4 + 4 routes

from A to C .
Notice that we have three groups of
four and, in basic arithmetic,
repeated addition is multiplication.
So the answer is: three groups of
four = 3 4 = 12.

It is appropriate to multiply the numbers

given.
EXAMPLE: Suppose that there are six
major highways from Canberra to
Darwin:

How many different routes are there from

A to D (with no backtracking)?

Answer: For each of the 12 routes
from A to C there are 6 options of
which highway to take next from C
to D . Twelve groups of six gives
12 6 = 72 options.

This answer is actually the product:

3 4 6 . We see multiplication at play all
the way through!
EXAMPLE:
a) I own five different shirts and four
different pairs of trousers. How many
different outfits could you see me in?
b) Actually, I own five different shirts, four
different pairs of trousers, and two sets of
shoes. How many different outfits could
you see me in?
Answer: a) For each shirt I have 4
options for which pair of trousers to
wear. Thus I have a total of
4 + 4 + 4 + 4 + 4 = 5 4 = 20 different outfits
available to choose from.
b) I have 5 4 2 = 80 different outfits if
I consider my shoes!
Comment: This previous example
assumes that there are no restrictions

on which shirts, trousers, and shoes I

might wear. For example, if I will never
wear my red shirt with my purple
trousers and green shoes, then there
are only 79 possible outfits you could
see me in.
We have a general principle:

THE MULTIPLICATION PRINCIPLE FOR

COUNTING:
IF THERE ARE
TASK AND

WAYS TO COMPLETE ONE

WAYS TO COMPLETE A SECOND

TASK, AND THE OUTCOMES OF THE FIRST TASK

IN NO WAY AFFECT THE CHOICES MADE FOR
THE SECOND TASK, THEN THE NUMBER OF
DIFFERENT WAYS TO COMPLETE BOTH TASKS
IS

This principle readily extends to the

completion of more than one task.

EXAMPLE: On a multiple choice quiz

there are five questions, each with four
choices for an answer:

I decide to fill out my answers randomly.
In how many different ways could I fill out
the quiz?
Answer: This is a five-task process:
Task 1: Answer question one:
4 ways
Task 2: Answer question two:
4 ways
Task 3: Answer question three:
4 ways

Task 4: Answer question four:

4 ways
Task 5: Answer question five:
4 ways
By the multiplication principle there
are 4 4 4 4 4 = 45 = 1024 ways to
complete the quiz.

EXAMPLE: On a multiple choice quiz
there are five questions, each with four
choices for an answer:

I decide to fill out my answers random

make a pattern. In how many different
ways could I fill out the quiz so that the
second answer is different from the first,
the third answer is either A or D, and the
last two answers are the same?
Answer: Again this is a five-task
process:
Task 1: Answer question one in
any way I like: 4 ways
Task 2: Answer question two in
any way different from answer
one: 3 ways
Task 3: Answer question three
with either A or D: 2 ways
Task 4: Answer question four in
any way I like: 4 ways
Task 5: Answer question five in
the same way as answer four: 1
way
By the multiplication principle there are
4 3 2 4 1 = 96 ways to complete the
quiz this way.

Problems 33-38 -solve on Edfinity.

5. Arranging Letters: Factorials

The next three sections describe
content that doesnt often appear in
middle-school mathematics
competitions, at least not directly.
(There are often questions related to
these ideas though.) But this does not
mean you cant look at this material and
use it to your advantage! It will make
those related questions easier. Plus,
this mathematics content is just cool
and fun in and of itself!

EXAMPLE: My name is JIM. In how many
ways can I rearrange the letters of my
name?
Answer 1: We can just list out all
the possibilities:
JIM
JMI

MJI
MIJ

IJM
IMJ

There are six ways.

Answer 2: Lets use the

multiplication principle: We have
three slots to fill with letters:

This is really a set of three tasks.

Task 1: Fill the first slot with a letter.
There are 3 ways to complete
this task. (Fill the slot with J, or
with I, or with M.)
Task 2: Fill the middle slot with a
letter.
There are 2 ways to complete
this task. (Once the first slot is
filled, there are only two choices
of letters left to use for the
second slot.)

Task 3: Fill the final slot with a letter.

There is only 1 way to complete
this task (once slots one and two
are filled).

By the multiplication principle, there are

thus 3 21 = 6 ways to complete this
task.
(Was the first approach easier?)
EXAMPLE: Actually my proper name is
JAMES. In how many ways can I
rearrange the letters of my proper name?
Answer 1: Listing out all the
possibilities doesnt seem fun any
more. Lets forget answer 1!

Answer 2: We have five slots to fill,

a series of five tasks:

There are 5 ways to place a first

letter, 4 ways to place a second
letter, 3 ways for a third letter, 2
choices for the fourth letter, and 1
option for the final letter. This gives
a total of 5 4 3 21 = 120 ways to
write out the letters of JAMES.
Question: In how many ways can one
write out the letters of BOVINE?
(Do you see that the answer is 720?)
Question: In how many ways can one
arrange the letters of OF?
(Do you see that the answer can be
thought of as 2 1 ?)

In playing with these problems it seems

the following types of products keep
coming up:
21 = 2
3 21 = 6
4 3 21 = 24
5 4 3 21 = 120
6 5 4 3 21 = 720

Mathematicians give these products a

name:
DEFINITION: THE PRODUCT OF THE INTEGERS
FROM TO (OR EQUIVALENTLY, FROM
DOWN TO ) IS CALLED
FACTORIAL AND IS
DENOTED
.

For example,
3! = 1 2 3 = 6 . (Or we could write:
3! = 3 21 = 6 .)

and

5! = 1 2 3 4 5 = 120 .

Mathematicians have decided to

declare:
1! = 1 .

(Does it make sense to say that the

product of all the numbers from 1 up to
1 is 1?)
These factorial numbers grow very
large very quickly:
1! = 1
2! = 21 = 2
3! = 3 21 = 6
4! = 4 3 21 = 24
5! = 5 4 3 21 = 120
6! = 6 5 4 3 21 = 720
7! = 7 6 5 4 3 21 = 5040
8! = 8 7 6 5 4 3 21 = 40320
9! = 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 21 = 362880
10! = 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 21 = 3628800

Question: What is the first factorial

larger than a billion?
Question: Most calculators have a
feature that lets you compute
factorials. What is the largest factorial
your calculator can handle?
Problems 39-42 -solve on Edfinity.

6. Dealing With Repeated

Letters
We have:
THERE ARE N! WAYS TO ARRANGE A STRING OF
N DISTINCT LETTERS.

My name, be it JIM or JAMES, contains

no repeat letters. But what if my name
were BOB, with the letter B repeated?
EXAMPLE: How many ways are there to
arrange the letters BOB if the B s are
identical and cannot be distinguished?
Answer: This name is small enough
for us to just list all the possibilities:
BOB

BBO

OBB

There are three ways to arrange

BOB.

How about a bigger word with repeat

letters?

EXAMPLE: In how many ways can one
arrange the letters HOUSES ?
Listing all the possibilities seems
overwhelming this time. Hmm.
Strategy
Heres a clever approach:
CONVERT THE PROBLEM TO ONE WE ALREADY
KNOW HOW TO SOLVE!

We know how to count the

arrangements of words if all the letters
in the word are different. For example:

There are 5! = 120 ways to arrange

the letters of HOUSE .
We can solve the problem if one of the
S s is missing.
We can also solve the problem if the
two S s were different, say, S1 and S2 .
There are 6! = 720 ways to arrange
the letters of HOUS1ES2 .
Let me start listing all 720 ways with two
different S s:

HOUS1ES2
HOUS2ES1
S1OUS2HE
S2OUS1HE
EOHUS1 S2
EOHUS2S1

But notice! If the S s are no longer

distinguishable, then pairs in this list of
answers collapse to give the same
arrangement.

This shows we must alter our answer of

720 by a factor of two if we make the S s
the same.
720
= 360 ways to arrange
2
the letters HOUSES .

There are

Question: How many ways are there to

arrange the letters BABE ?
(Check you answer by writing out all
the possibilities!)
Lets go up a notch in difficulty:
EXAMPLE: How many ways are there to
rearrange the letters of the word CHEESE ?
Answer: If the three E s were
distinct written E1 , E2 , and E3 , say
then there would be 6! = 720 ways to
rearrange the letters CHE1E2SE3 . But
the three E s can be rearranged 3! = 6
different ways within any one

particular arrangement of letters.

These six arrangements would be
seen as the same if the E s were no
longer distinct:

Thus we must divide our answer of

6! by 3! to account for the groupings
of six that become identical. There
are thus

6! 654321
=
= 654 = 120
321
3!

ways to arrange the letters of

CHEESE .
Lets make it even worse!

EXAMPLE: How many ways are there to

arrange the letters CHEESES ?
Answer: If the E s were
distinguishable and the S s were
distinguishable, then wed be
counting the ways to arrange seven
distinct letters:
There are 7! ways to arrange the
letters of CHE1E2S1E3S2
As before there are 3! ways to
arrange the E s in any particular
configuration. These groups of 3!
will collapse to the same
arrangement if we remove the
subscripts from the E s.

But these new arrangements also

collapse in pairs once we remove
the subscripts from the S s.

So we need to take our answer of 7!

and divide it by 3! and again by 2! .

We get the funny looking fraction:

7!
3!
2!

Lets multiply the top and bottom

lines each by 3!. This now reads:
7!
3! 7!
3!
=
.
2! 3! 2!3!

which is much easier to read!

And this number equals
7654321 7654
=
= 2120 = 420 .
2
32121

Now were pros!

Question: In how many ways can one

arrange the letters CHEESIEST ?
Answer:

9!
, whatever that
3!2!

number is.

Consider the word CHEESIESTESSNESS ,

the quality of being the cheesiest of
cheeses of all.
Do you see that there are
16!
ways to rearrange its letters?
5!6!

It is actually better to write this answer

as

16!
1!1!5!6!1!1!1!
1!
1!
5!
6!
1!
1!
1!

for the one letter C .

for the one letter H .
for the five letters E .
for the four letters S .
for the one letter I .
for the one letter T .
for the one letter N .

This offers a self-check:

The numbers appearing on the
bottom sum to the number
appearing on the top.
(This is why mathematicians like to
regard 1! as equal to 1. It makes doing
this convenient and consistent.)
One more example:
EXAMPLE: In how many ways can we
arrange the letters AAAABBCDDD ?
Answer: There are 10 letters in
total, and if we could tell all the
letters apart (for A1 A2 A3 A4 B1B2CD1D2D3 )
the answer would be 10! .
But in each of these arrangements,
there are 4! arrangements of A1 , A2 , ,
and A4 that collapse to the same

arrangement when the A s are made

to look the same.
And there are 2! arrangements of B1
and B2 that collapse to the same
arrangement when the B s are made
to look the same. And 1!
arrangements of the single C (this
isnt saying much), and 3!
arrangements of D1 , D2 , and D3 that
collapse to be the same when the
D s are made to look the same.
So we need to divide our answer of
10! by 4! and by 2! and by 1! and by
3! .
There are
10!
4!2!1!3!

ways to arrange the letters

AAAABBCDDD . (Notice that the

numbers in the denominator add to

the number in the numerator? We
have accounted for all the letters.)
If we want the actual number (do
we?), this is
10!
10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 21
=
4!2!1!3! 4 3 21 211 3 21
10 9 8 7 6 5
=
2 6
= 10 9 4 7 5 = 12,600

We now have the general principle:

WORD ARRANGEMENT PRINCIPLE
Suppose a set of N letters has a copies
of one letter, b copies of a next letter,
and so on, all the way up to z copies of
a final letter, then there are
N!
a!b!!z!

ways to arrange those N letters.

(The numbers in the denominator sum

to the number in the numerator.)
10!
For example, there are
4!2!1!3!
arrangements of AAAABBCDDD .

PROBLEM 43: How many arrangements

of the letters DOODLENOODLE are there
with the letter D appearing at the start
and the letter O appearing at the end?

7. Letter Arrangements In
Disguise
So we know how to answer questions
of the type:
How many ways can you rearrange
the letters of AAABBBBCCCCCC?
13!
Answer:
, whatever that
3!4!6!

number turns out to be.

Now look at this next problem. Can you

see that it actually the same question in
disguise?
EXAMPLE: Mean Mr. Muckins has a class
of 13 students. He has decided to call three
of the students A students, four of them B
students, and six of them C students before

the year has even started! In how many

ways could he assign these labels?
Answer: Lets imagine all thirteen
students are standing in a line:
Heres one way he can assign
grades:
Heres another way:
and so on.
We see that this grade question is
just the same problem as
rearranging letters the letters
AAABBBBCCCCCC. The answer
must be
Cool!

13!
.
3!4!6!

EXAMPLE: There are 10 people in an

office and 4 are needed for a committee.
In how many different ways can we make
a committee of four?
Answer: Imagine the 10 people
standing in a line. We need to give
out labels. Four people will be called
ON and six people will be called
LUCKY. (You dont really want to
be on a committee. It is usually
extra work!)
Here is one way to assign those
labels:

And we can list many more ways.

But we see that this is just a letter
arrangement problem.
How many ways can we arrange
the letters OOOOLLLLLL ?

The answer is:

10! 10987
=
= 1037 = 210 .
4!6! 4321

EXAMPLE: Fifteen horses run a race. How

many possibilities are there for first,
second, and third place?
Answer: Imagine the horses lined
up in a row.
One horse will be labeled first, one
will be labeled second, one third,
and twelve will be labeled losers.
Heres one possibility for how the
race might turn out.

And there are many more

possibilities.
But we see counting all possibilities
is just answering the question:

How many ways can we arrange

123LLLLLLLLL?
The answer is:
15!
= 1514 13 = 2730 .
1!1!1!12!
COMMENT: IT IS IMPORTANT THAT EACH AND
EVERY OBJECT GET A LABEL. WE HAVE TO
CONSIDER THE HORSES THAT DONT WIN AS
WELL.

EXAMPLE: A feel good running race has

20 participants. Three will be deemed
equal first place winners, five will be
deemed equal second place winners, and
the rest will be deemed equal third place
winners. How many different outcomes
can occur?

Answer: Do you see that the

20!
?
3!5!12!

answer is

Do you see that

the problem is the same as asking

for how many ways to arrange a
string of 20 letters?
EXAMPLE: From an office of 20 people,
two committees are needed. The first
committee shall have 7 members, one of
which shall be the chair and one the
treasurer. The second committee shall
have 8 members. This committee will have
three co-chairs and two co-secretaries
and one treasurer. In how many ways can
this be done (assuming no one can be on
two committees, nor have two or more
roles within a committee)?
Answer: First lets keep track of the
labels.
1 person will be labeled chair of
first committee, C1 .

1 person will be labeled treasure of

first committee, T1 .
5 people will be labeled ordinary
members of first committee, O1 .
3 people will be labeled co-chairs
of second committee, C2 .
2 people will be labeled cosecretaries of second committee,
.
S2
1 person will be labeled treasurer
of second committee, T2 .
2 people will be labeled ordinary
members of the second committee,
.
O2
5 people will be labeled lucky, they
are on neither committee, L .
If we line the people up in a row,
then each arrangement would look
like an arrangement of the letters:
.
C1T1O1O1O1O1O1C2C2C2S2S2T2O2O2LLLLL

The total number of possibilities is

thus

20!
, which we can
1!1!5!3!2!1!2!5!

work out as a number if we want.

School-book writers will be shocked
that I havent used the fancy words
permutation and combination in
these notes. We dont need them! (If
you have heard these words before,
feel free to forget them. If you havent
heard these words before, you are not
missing out on anything!)
EXAMPLE: (A combination problem)
Suppose 5 people are to be chosen from 12
and the order in which folk are chosen is
not important. How many ways can this
be done?
Answer: If we line people up in a
row, five will get the label C for
chosen, and seven the label N for

not chosen. Heres one possible

way to choose five from the twelve.

Each possibility is just an

arrangement of the letters:
CCCCCNNNNNNN. There are thus
12!
ways to accomplish this task.
5!7!

(By the way:

12! 121110 9 8
=
= 1211 3 4 = 1584 .)
5 4 3 21
5!7!

EXAMPLE: (A permutation problem)

Suppose 5 people are to be chosen from 12
for a team and the order in which they are
chosen is considered important. In how
many ways can this be done?
Answer: This time we have the
labels:
1 person labeled first
1 person labeled second

1 person labeled third

1 person labeled fourth
1 person labeled fifth
7 people labeled not
chosen
If we line the people in a row, one
way of choosing five people, in
order, could be:

Each possibility is just an

arrangement of the letters:
12345NNNNNNN .
12!
And there are
such
1!1!1!1!1!7!

arrangements.

This is the answer.

(And the actual number is:
12!
= 121110 9 8 = 95040 .)
1!1!1!1!1!7!

Question: Does it make sense that the

answer to the second problem is larger
than the first?
Problems 44-50 -solve on Edfinity.

About The Author

JAMES TANTON
Visit http://www.maa.org/mathcompetitions/teachers/curriculuminspirations/james-tanton-biography.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR:

Believing that mathematics really is
accessible to all, James Tanton (PhD,
Mathematics, Princeton 1994) is

committed to sharing the delight and

beauty of the subject. In 2004 James
founded the St. Marks Institute of
Mathematics, an outreach program
promoting joyful and effective
mathematics education. He worked as
a fulltime high-school teacher at St.
Marks School in Southborough, MA
(2004-2012), and he conducted, and
continues to conduct, mathematics
courses and workshops for
mathematics teachers across the
nation and overseas.
James is the author of Solve This: Math
Activities for Students and Clubs (MAA,
2001), The Encyclopedia of
Mathematics (Facts on File, 2005),
Mathematics Galore! (MAA, 2012),
Geometry: An Interactive Journey to
Mastery (The Great Courses, 2014),
Without Words: Volumes 1 and 2

(Tarquin 2015), Trigonometry: A Clever

Study Guide (MAA, 2015), and twelve
self-published texts. He is the 2005
recipient of the Beckenbach Book
Prize, the 2006 recipient of the Kidder
Faculty Prize at St. Marks School, and
a 2010 recipient of a Raytheon Math
Hero Award for excellence in school
teaching and currently serves as the
Mathematician-at-Large for the
Mathematical Association of America.
James is the author of Edfinitys Zen
Masters Series For Middle School
Students - a unique collection of digital
titles for the modern educator and
student.

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is an educational technology company
headquartered in Silicon Valley that offers
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All rights reserved 1/16.
ISBN: 978-1-944931-02-5